Tories open up 4% gap in the July ICM poll
July 26th, 2006
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But Cameron needs more than 39% before he can think of Number 10?
After all the waiting the delayed figures from the Guardian’s July ICM survey are now out and they have the Tories moving forward, Labour holding steady but the Lib Dems falling back.
These are the shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll which was in the Sunday Telegraph nearly three weeks ago. CON 39 (+3): LAB 35 (nc): LD 17 (-1).. Note that the reports that the Guardian is putting out have comparisons with the paper’s June ICM poll - not the last survey by the pollster.
For the Tories this survey, the latest in the longest continuous series of polls in any UK newspaper, is very good news particularly as it comes after the disappointments of the Bromley by-election. It will reinforce David Cameron in his efforts to shift the party in the face of growing opposition.
For Labour there must be some relief that the party is not paying a price for the loans for honours affair. Holding onto the 35% - just one point down on the General election - is perhaps more than they could have hoped for in the circumstances. Also a deficit of just 4% is manageable and the party would probably end up with most seats if this was the outcome at a General Election.
For the Lib Dems the numbers must be a disappointment particularly as they come after Bromley, some better performances by Ming Campbell, and signs that the policy and media relations operation is working better.
The message from these numbers is that the next General Election is wide open. It will be interesting to see if the trend is confirmed by YouGov which should be out in the next couple of days.
Mike Smithson
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Broadly agree with your analysis Mike save IMO the Lib Dems should be polling better than 17% when the government is in such a mess. Frankly I feel they are running around 5% below par. Some head scratching in Cowley Street I feel, save there are too many bald men there !!
Baxter shows Labour 2 short of majority, Lib-Dems with 10 seats (7 in Scotland).
I agree with you there Jack and certainly in local elections they are generally doing this and can you ever recall a government which has had as much bad publicity maintaining it’s support so well in Opinion Polls
2 Alan J. Usual cobblers from Baxter.
….. should open up a shoe factory !!
2. If you apply the Baxter method to the 1979 result it gives the Liberals one seat (Grimond).
3 Mark. Off hand no. Certainly the locals for the Lib Dems are decent enough in the round, and yet nationally I feel the Lib Dems are still not hitting the mark.
I am not sure why the Guardian trailed that this was such an “interesting” poll, other than pure spin of course. IMHO it is mildly encouraging for the Tories, mildly disappointing for the Lib Dems and ‘as you were’ for Labour. Nothing to set the political firmament alight!
It confirms other polls showing, that people like what Cameron is doing but are hedging their bets for now, that Labour are down but not out, and the Lib Dems under Grandpa Ming are failing to inspire anyone (even some of their own recent supporters).
Cameron still has a considerable task to do to get the party into a winning position but he has made considerable progress in less than a year.
Should be a YouGov poll out soon!
I preferred the opinion poll held in Bromley recently! Surprised to see LDs down at 17%, I thought we were making some real headway.
And also to see Labour holding strong. Although if it means people are wising up to media spin, maybe that’s no bad thing.
One by one, the pollsters keep underestimating Lib Dem support! I wonder why this is? with the statesmanlike Ming striding like a colossus over the political landscape, plus the amazing new tax policies, and the figure of fun the Tories have as their leader, it’s obvious Lib Dem support is really more like 30%!
9 - lol - good one! ROFL
There may be a little evidence that LD media operation very slightly better than previously, but none whatever (from the party member’s point of view ) that other functions are more effective than before. Quite why the media are saying this, apart from the obvious, that most MPs are still enjoying the post - CK honeymoon, and the media tends to draw its info from MPs, is not clear.
[1] Why can’t bald men scratch their heads? Logically, it should be easier for them than anyone else…
I think the Libdems problem is always the same one: getting their voice heard in the media (compared to the big two).
The Lebanon/Israeli crisis gives Ming a good opportunity, but the problem for someone with his “stateman” style is that media sometimes prefer to focus on more “colorful” people and opinions …so last week to discuss Middle East Sky had Clare Short getting angry with anyone who doesn’t agree with her (and with the facial expression of a woman waiting for the end of the world)
9 LOL and don’t forget a Labour government in meltdown with Tony Blair a busted flush only just short of winning a 4th election
4 - Jack 10 is obviously too low. But surely their comes a point where it is unlikely that the Lib Dem vote has fallen significantly since the GE but only outwith the seats they hold. Were these figures (or similar ones) to be replicated at the next election ) I think it’s likely the Libs would lose more than the dozen seats you have suggested.
I generally agree with the other comments. From a Labour viewpoint, all things considered, I think we’re in a reasonable position, and as I’ve posted before I note a steady trickle of returning support in my marginal.
I detect a certain bafflement among Tory friends about this - “What do you guys have to do to fall seriously behind?” But not much has changed in the fundamentals since last year except that the Tories have a pleasant-seeming new leader: people are aware of, and irritated by, the reported series of Government cock-ups, but not really convinced that anything better is available. The belief that the Government is so hated by most people that they’re bound to vote us out is just a projection of Tory activist sentiment.
This should be interesting:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=397808&in_page_id=1770
Havent Labour learned that for personal attacks to work they must be credible?
16. Nick, I think that the so called “floating” voters between the two main parties are in a “waiting” position.
18 Andrea I basically agree!
16 I agree with some of what you say there Nick but
Interesting poll - 39% for the Tories is as good as it has got for them in recent months and 35% for Labour is too.
17% for the Lib Dems is dissapointing. There are two (at least) explanations:
Politics is returning to its traditional two party duopoly - the issue will be how may seats will the Lib Dems hold and does any one know a good taxi firm?
Or Blair is a busted flush - he managed to defy political gravity for most of his leadership and the normal rules of mid term reverses have not applied in either the 97 or 01 parliament - they are now. In those circumstances the Lib Dems always get squeezed, but always recover in the run up to polling day.
It’s clearly good news for Cameron and his ‘hug a hoodie strategy’ - Labour’s attack has not made much impact (apart from perhaps firming up a few Lib Dem waverers).
I expect Rik, Fred and the clones will enjoy this - they should, but we are a long way from a General Election…
20 Oops pressed the wrong button … but I would expect a big fall in the Labour vote should there be a council byelection in your area at the moment .
Dan - I am no clone! And if you have read it, I would have thought that you would have agreed with my analysis above!
16. Ah, Nick, is Broxtowe CLP starting your re-selection process soon or will they wait next year?
16 - lol
It’s amazing how often you seem to lose support in your seat when “nobody’s looking” just so you can notice it “steadily returning” at the right moments
17 - Rik I think the problem with their line of attack is that people basically think Cameron is quite nice. I tend to think they will side with him if Labour’s strategy is as crude and unsophisticated as Douglas Alexander’s comments appear to suggest.
Sojme good news form this - Darren (DC) will be getting worried that such an awful poll will mean knife-sharpening in Lib Dem circles, thus shafting his strategy
25- Alex, always less often than your comments about the tories being ready to gain all seats named here and predicting Labour will never see a poll lead again in this parliament
What puzzles me about the weak LD showing and the firm Lab vote is the juxtaposition of the ICM “how will you vote” questions to the “reaction to the war in Lebanon” questions.
Given the Lebabanon results, one would have assumed this would produce an “Iraq-style” bounce for the LDs from Labour - but apparently not. Odd.
The poll in general reinforces the view that the Conservative share of vote is hardening in the high 30s. Whilst the overall Lib/Lab vote remains relatively stable, there is some intersting fluctuation which can only be down to the comparative merits of TB outweighing MC.
I know it goes against the majority comments of this board, but I do wonder whether there is still more than a pinch of residual Blair “electoral magic”. Something is still working for Labour - yet this is a government which for the past 4 months has been consistently reeling on the ropes, crisis after crisis and seemingly lacking any real direction.
Their continuing success (35%) has been attributed variously to
a. lingering distrust/dislike of the old Conservative Party - gradually disappearing thanks to DC
b. the failure of Ming Campbell to inspire both within his own party, left of centre voters, or those looking for a socialist alternative to Nulab.
This isn’t an attempt at spin. Maybe we should just give more credit to TB’s continued standing with a raft of voters, incredible as it may seem to us. Despite Iraq et al, I wonder whether TB still might just be Labour’s most effective and probably only real electoral asset.
Bring on Gordon and watch the Labour vote crumble.
15 max. Without wishing to traverse old ground too much the recent relative success of the Lib Dems lies in their ability to concerntrate strength and resources and not pile up “wasted” votes. In the 16-22% range it’s peerfectly possible for the Lib Dems to hold around 50 seats or indeed 75. The old Alliance days of them scoring 26% and a couple of dozen seats are IMO long gone.
28 - I’d be surprised if i ever made a post along those lines. I don’t generally deal in making predictions. Are you sure you haven’t confused me with someone else?
30 - Jack W but they are now sitting on a lot of marginals over a reviving COnservative Party. Are you so sure they can hold more than about 45 on current poll showings?
More proof that David Cameron is a closet Lib Dem; he’s now seeking work as a Big Cyril lookalike!
Cameron
Smith
31. Alex, you’ve become more partisan recently. Nothing wrong with it. Your doubt about Labour poll successes were a response about a post of mine about Brown not risking a snap election with a 3% lead. And yesterday you naturally posted about why the Libdems should hold Winchester…which was practically predicting a Con gain there.
25 But what Nick says is consistent with opinion polls showing Labour support back up to almost GE levels but as I have also said not with local election results .
30 - disagree slightly with that jack. If the Lib dems had really used their vote so efficiently in 2005 then their polling numbers would represent real trouble. In fact 2005 was to some extent a reversion to type - 5%+ added to their vote but minimal advance in their seats. Their ho e must be that the 5% lost since the election are “wasted votes” reverting to Labour rathe thandirect switches to the Cons which could really harm them.
32 - have you been selected for S&C yet Rik?
33. Tabman, I think there’s a little weight difference
37. Tabman, Sutton and Cheam is not selecting yet! You’re not following Conservative selections! You need to study more
37 - Selection is scheduled for the Autumn Tabman
Which Autumn?
40. so it’s in the second tranche of seats (probably announced in mid-August), right?
36 - I’d go along with that Alex.
Wrong - later in the year!
I suppose this confirms that the Tories just can’t get enough people to like them however hard they try to be nice. I can’t see them getting near to winning the next election. I guess voters have just decided that warts and all they are content with this government. i’ve no doubt that they’ll win next time though as they stand they don’t deserve to. The Lib Dems should be doing much better. They’re the only ones putting forward any progressive policies or acting in any way ethically.
34 - you misunderstood my post on Winchester, but i’ll just have to leave it at that because i’m ‘typing’ on a PDA.
32 - Rik 39/17 Tory/Lib Dem would result in at least 15 seats going Tory and Labour probably picking up a handful as well.
But 17% three years out from an election is a historically strong position for the Lib Dems and I’d expect a minimum of 2-3% increase as the election publicity rules cut in.
20% for the Lib Dems is a significantly stronger position for them v the Tories and would also (with the Tories on 39%) lead to gains off Labour too.
I’d expect the Tories to pick up a number of Lib Dem seats at the next election (almost regardless of poll ratings), but I’d also expect a few gains the other other way too (unless the party goes back to 12% or so).
At the end of the day these are unexpected figures for the Lib Dems (and others) - whether they are replicated in other polls we’ll see, but the Lib Dems not progressing in the current circumstance is significant (if repeated).
38 - Cameron wins by a chin though
45 - thats right Roger - the Lib Dems acceptance of a dodgy donation from a guy who will be in court shortly demonstrates their ethics!
46. Alex, I don’t even know what a PDA is
44. Rik, wrong what?
50 - wrong at 42!
45 - change the electorate!
Roger, with both yours and Sean Thomas’ recent conversions, I’m a minded of a quote that someone I know uses:
“A Liberal is someone who’s right, but he’s right too soon.”
35. Mark, I don’t see any discrepancy between Labour’s opinion poll ratings and their local election results. In the previous two parliaments Labour consistently polled 10-12% less in local elections, if anything the gap has narrowed.
51. And so in what tranche of seats? I supposed that the second tranche of seats (announced in mid-august) will select in September/October…unless they’ll be much faster than the first tranche (which hasn’t finished yet)
29 “Bring on Gordon and watch the Labour vote crumble.”
Tory Paul - wishful thinking I’m afraid.
Just because TB isn’t prime minister doesn’t mean he wont be a campaign asset for Labour. My bet is for a resurgent, liberated TB during the GE campaign.
The Tories are only 4 points ahead during the worst mid term blues. There is a reasonable chance of 8 more years of Labour.
Like it or not
36 alex. To some degree that is correct, except reverting to type in 05 meant the 97 and 01 type election - adding seats and votes.
32 Max. As I’ve said previously IMO there are around a dozen Lib Dem seats presently at risk to the Tories. After that gains for the Tories remain much more difficult. And then there are the Solihull and Newburys of any election.
56 Sorry that 56/32 is for Rik not Max.
55 - do you think TB will be like some sort of NuLab Clinton? Or deep down, he’ll want GB to crash and burn in a sort of “Nobody does it quite like me” way?
56 - and is Sutton & Cheam one of them?
59 Tabman. Recount territory …. just to keep Rik on his toes !!
Oh sh*t, just wrote a long post and the f-ing spam filter ate it.
Oh well, I just laid bare how to whittle away labour support but you’ll have to make it up yourself now…….
If you want to give Baxter some useable numbers, how about the 12 month moving average:
Con 36.6%
Lab 34.3%
Lib Dem 20.4%
Non tactical swing: Con 251 Lab 319 Lib Dem 44
Tactical swing (as at Election 2005): Con 244 Lab 316 Lib Dem 54
Tabman. If I thought SeanT was a Lib Dem I would be quite sure I was shifting my support to the wrong Party!
63 cont…..Or to misquote long John Baldry “If I see SeanT in my rear view mirror I’ll know I’m on the wrong road”!
63/4 - don’t worry, he’s still a Tory;)
Pretty surprised LDs at 17%. But I won’t shout “rogue”. Ah well, it’s the silly season. I think Ming is saying some sensible mumblings about the Middle East, but they don’t touch the public. They are not even on the flagship news programmes, let alone in the Sun.
So the silly season starts, and then the even sillier season (party conferences).
Excellent documentary tonight on BBC4 tonight on “The Worst Job in the World… leader of the opposition.” Very incisive comment from Lord Bell, Michael Portillo and others. Will hit BBC2 soon; recommend it to geeks of all persuasions.
67 - another interesting programme, on R4, about Tory Libertarians, which I half caught whilst ministering to a sick (literally
) child.
66.”So the silly season starts, and then the even sillier season (party conferences).”
I’ve to give you the tragic news that Mark Oaten announced he won’t be present at the conference! He’ll go on holiday in Far East with Belinda to celebrate their wedding anniversary
67. Tabman, I hope your child will recover soon!
Expect Labour to get a bounce when TB goes. Not that GB is something special. I think that even if TB was succeeded by George Bush, or Charles Manson even, Labour would get a lift after TB. This will hit Cons and LDs.
70. and how long do you think it’ll last? so a snap election next year? Or maybe in spring 2008? (depending on when TB goes)
Sky News - YouGov poll in Telegraph - no details available as Sky only have Page 1 and details are on Page 2.
71 - no idea. And I think that GB would not risk it as such a boost could evaporate during an election campaign. He would want scandals to be long forgotten (will they?). And Cameron to be exposed - by having polices that can be attacked. And Iraq to go better to bring back in the left and neutralise the LDs.
Further to the lack of Ming on TV despite the sense he is talking: this is fair enough. There are no British troops there; no UN Brits have been killed yet (but if the Finn had been a Brit it would be a different story). How does this war affect us, apart from demonstrating what we already know - Blair is Bush’s poodle. No story - we know that already.
The only interest is whether Cameron wants to be Bush’s poodle’s poodle like Ia(i)n (Duncan) Smith (BA, Perugia) was. I think Dave is too savvy for that.
Excellent poll for us and respectable for Labour. I have no wish to intrude on private grief and put the boot in any further, but Minger must be rather disappointed to be losing ground after what, for him, passes as a good press since the Bromley by-election….
Ming is being too cautious on Lebanon. He should be constantly on the air expressing outrage over bombing of Red Cross vans, UN troops, apartment blocks etc, massive bunker-busters being ferried via the UK… but he isnt. He doesnt have the indignation that Kennedy did so well, so he cant pick up the angry vote like Kennedy did. He should be braver in foreign affairs, like he was on tax policy. This is probably because he knows foreign affairs so well he doesnt see Lebanon in black and white, but the public like black and white politics and are bored by grey.
29. Tory Paul “Given the Lebanon results, one would have assumed this would produce an “Iraq-style” bounce for the LDs from Labour - but apparently not. Odd.”
The Lib Dems got the max bounce they could in the 2005 election. There is nothing left to bounce from Labour to Lib Dem. I believe the 36% Labour got in 2005 was actually our core vote. They voted in 2005 in spite of Iraq. All the events that have happened since are much serious. Iraq was the issue of maximum danger.
I also don’t think this is down to “Blair magic”. Remember he campaigned in 2005 with Brown as a human shield, glued to his side. And I really don’t think there is anyone in Britain who is unaware that Blair will be stepping down and Brown taking over. Therefore if people say they are for Labour, they are endorsing the handover to Brown.
The interesting thing is why Lib Dems are moving to Tories. Was this poll done after Mr Campbell’s appearance on Newsnight, does anyone know?
That should have said “all the events since Iraq are much less serious.”
Now will my doubters believe me that we have returned to two party politics???
However Tabman is right that I am indeed worried about Operation Ming Cowley Street/Cameron Downing Street. We need the Libdems in that 18-20% box. Ming must survive and we must do everything we can to boost him in the short to medium term.
“Was this poll done after Mr Campbell’s appearance on Newsnight, does anyone know?”
Irrelevant! Outside our own little village, who the hell watches Newsnight?
My guess is that until a few weeks ago, nobody actually realised Ming was leader. He got a bit of press. Some people now know he is leader. His own ratings are negative. Voters have put two and two together, and it’s dragged the LDs down.
As Fred, I think, mentioned, there are some who still think Paddy is LD leader. As they slowly realise he is not, our ratings may drop. And we may yet lose the odd West Country seat.
It’s a bit of a problem, but the locals weren’t horrid, Bromley was surprisingly good… (forget Dunfermline - that was unique in the circumstances, and may have been a sympathy vote - like for a party whose leader has just died) - just have to try to ride this out and hope for a positive conference. I suspect that some sandal-wearers will try to sink the tax reforms, but fail.
78. Fool
78 - patronising spinning tosh as usual. Good night!
79. Newsnight is watched by 1.5% of the population.
The maximum possible impact of literally anything shown only on Newsnight would be well under 0.1% in terms of poll ratings.
Even 0.05% would be a huge movement - it would mean 3% of viewers had changed their voting intention due to the programme.
80- Your usual charming self Colin?
I was about to say that the Libdems on here have been very honest and reasonable in their postings in reaction to the poll.
Then I saw posts 80 and 81.
DC SBS has pronounced earlier that the Tories are now ‘pleasant’.
And I wonder what the W is for after ‘Colin’?
84- Great minds think alike Blue2Win.
I too was wondering about the W. Maybe a T would suffice?
85- On second thoughts maybe not as my surname is a C…
72: The YouGov poll is here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/07/27/wmid27.xml
Just about Israel and Lebanon - the voting intention questions will presumably be published on Friday.
87 - Thks. Well, I was in the minority for most of the ME questions, but hope rather less so for the Friday Big One on voting intentions
DC I was thinking more about ‘wude’ in the style of the lovable Star Wars character with the fast but linguistically short tongue, who lives underwater and has a tendency to cause disaster and panic when pressed, but is widely loved.
I have no idea if Colin matches the character and is lovable in reality rather than as ‘wude’ as he is in cyberality. But I hope it is so, for own his sake.
The ICM shows that the Others are down 2% as well as the Libdems down 1%. The squeeze is on. I note that Labour are holding at 35% which looks a little high. 39% for us could be the highest in an ICM since 1992.
89- Oh… I was being ‘Wude’ in my thoughts.
This poll quite frankly is excellent news for ‘Labour’ despite all the problems, Levy,Prescott, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc etc. For a government that has been in power for nine years, to be only 4% behind the main opposition party, is simply amazing. Those of us whose political memories, stretch back a few years, are astounded. During the 70/80/90’s it was normal for the main opposition party to be 10 to 25% ahead of the government. Byelection swings against the governing party were always 10/25% against, that is not happening. Labour Party HQ, must be cock-a-hoop. If this poll is replicated by further main polling organisations, I would be astounded. The fact that some Tories are pleased by this poll, shows the poverty of their expectations.
Kind of interesting- if Labour are doing better despite all their travails, I might suggest that tactical anti-tory voting might not be dead either. Hard to capture this on a poll snap shot, so I am reasonable sanguine about Lib Dem prospects at these levels, and a bit sceptical of the Tories triumphalism.
You know the Conservatives are going in the right direction when Lord Tebbit is saying they’ve changed too much.