Where’s the money going in key marginals?

The big move in the 2005 general election, of course, was the switch of 5-6% of the voters from Labour to the Lib Dems at a time when the Iraq War was still a major influence. Many of the starting positions in individual seats that Nick Clegg’s party will have next time will have been underpinned by this big swing. The critical question is whether these groups will go back, stick with the Lib Dems or move over to Cameron’s Tories?

Brown needs a lot of them to return to Labour if he is to beat off the Tory challenge.

So it’s interesting following the prices in the Ladbrokes general election constituency betting to note that the main movers seem to have been to the Lib Dems in Labour held seats where the Clegg’s party is in with a shout.

In the tight three-way marginal of Hampstead and Kilburn the money has been going on the Lib Dems where the 3/1 opening price has now tightened to 2/1. The notional 2005 result is LAB 36.8%: LD 34.1%: CON 23.8%. The Tories are also at 2/1 with Labour down at 6/4 to hold on.

In Brent Central, where Brent East Lib Dem MP, Sarah Teather is standing, the price has moved from 9/4 to 15/8. Labour are at 2/5 with the Tories on 100/1. Teather, whose original seat was lost in the boundary changes, has a tough challenge. The notional 2005 result was LAB 50.1%: LD 32.1%: CON 13.4%

At Watford where, for want of a better phrase, the Tories had a “bit of an issue” with their original PPC, the Lib Dems are now 6/4 favourites to take the seat from Labour. The Tories are on 7/4 with the incumbent Labour MP in third favourite position at 9/2. This really is a great one to watch. The 2005 notional result was LAB 33.6%: LD 31.2%: CON 29.6%

Even in my own constituency of Bedford the big price movement was on the LDs. It opened at 50/1 and is now down to 33/1 following reports of turmoil amongst the local Tories - one of whom was quoted in a local paper saying they were heading for third place. The Tories are at 1/2 with the Labour incumbent at 6/4. Here the notionals are LAB 41.7%: CON 33.5%: LD 21.8%

UKPollingReport

Does this point to a Labour standstill or small decline?

In the week before Christmas Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report put forward the theory that Labour’s standing in the polls was closely linked with how optimistic the public were about the economy or the level of consumer confidence.

He argued that Labour’s low point in the early summer coincided with the low points on the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index and the Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence Index.

Thus while the world economic storm was dominating the headlines in the September - November 2008 period these two indices were actually seeing sharp rises which coincided with the Brown bounce.

The argument was that people felt things were getting better inspired, possibly, by a sense that the situation was under control. Also, of course, motorists and mortgage payers were seeing sharp reductions in their costs.

Well now comes the real test for the thesis. The latest Nationwide consumer confidence numbers are out and show a dip as seen in the chart above. Will this be reflected in the January voting intention surveys?

We shouldn’t have too long to wait. Fieldwork for the January Populus survey for the Times starts on Friday and continues over the weekend and we might also see one or two polls in the Sunday papers. The Sunday Times YouGov poll often comes out at this stage in the month and there might just be ComRes and ICM as well.

If this does stand up then the theory promises to be a great tool for gamblers - particularly those betting on the general election markets. (William Hill’s wide range of UK political prices are generally available daytime only)

For if you can predict with a level of confidence that it’s getting better or worse for the government then it might be wise to bet before the voting intention polling numbers come out.

The trouble is, of course, that the bookies read PB as well and if the Wells thesis is correct then they will be soon adjusting their prices in line with these two indices.

Is the school providing the 2009 betting movers?

After the last thread on Ken Clarke’s possible return to a front-bench position it’s quite striking to note how many of the potential 2009 political betting “movers” were all educated at the same school - Nottingham High.

Yesterday I put £50 on another ex-pupil, Ed Balls, at 16/1 in Ladbroke’s Chancellor on New Year’s Eve 2009 market. Clearly Darling looks set to stay the course but in the current economic storm then the chances of a move here must be high.

And Balls, of course, played a key role supporting Brown at the treasury in the period up to him becoming an MP in 2005. The two are said to be very close and if it is a case of “move over Darling” then surely Balls is in with a big chance, That 16/1 looks tasty.

Also in the running on the Ladbrokes market is Ken Clarke himself at 28/1. To win three things need to happen: a 2009 general election; a victory for the Tories; and for Cameron to have moved Osborne on. I’m not so sure that these pre-conditions can be met.

But Clarke’s return, if that is indeed what happens, could provide what political gamblers all love - a Westminster by-election in his Rushcliffe seat. For if Clarke is going to shadow Peter Mandelson then how is he going to do it effectively in the commons - Mandy is now, of course, a Lord. An elevation to the upper house for Ken with the consequential vacancy could possibly be on the cards.

Another possible 2009 by-election could involve our third prominent Nottingham High old boy - Geoff Hoon. He’s being strongly tipped as Britain’s next EU commissioner and if that happens there would be a by-election in his Ashfield seat. This would not be the first time that Ashfield has had to have an election because its sitting MP has taken a Brussels job. In 1977 the Tories pulled off a big victory there. Could the same repeat itself in 2009?

With a swing the size of what happened in Crewe & Nantwich in May 2008 that could be just possible. But my sense is that after Glenrothes the Labour by-election machine is in a better state and this might not be as easy.

A final ex-Nottingham High boy who is in the betting is Ed Davey. He’s down with William Hill’s as the 7/1 third favourite to succeed Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader.