Mori puts the Lib Dems on 24%
July 31st, 2006
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A boost for Ming or the product of the firm’s methodology?
The latest poll from Mori in today’s Financial Times has with changes on the last poll at the end of June CON 36 (nc): LAB 32 (-1): LD 24 (+3). - so a big boost for the Lib Dem leader with the biggest share for the party since last September.
The poll is quite old. The survey started on July 20th - one day before work began on the July ICM survey for the Guardian - and finished on July 24th, a week ago.
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Whatever figures that Mori are showing I never get too excited and would certainly never risk money on one of their polls.
Unlike ICM, Populus, and YouGov the Mori approach does not involves weighting its samples by past vote or a party identifier. It is thus much more reliant on getting a representative sample. The one filter it does use is that its headline figures only include those who say they would be “certain to vote” in a General Election.
Another factor that might have an impact is that the Mori “certainty to vote” question is put at the end of the interview while ICM has this at the start. It is often argued that later responses in a polling survey might be “conditioned” by what has been asked before.
Mori’s monthly party shares tend to be much less stable than the other pollsters and thus more newsworthy. Journalists love big changes and polls which one show minute movements get much less attention.
Thus the Sun made a big splash of the Mori poll last January that reported a 6% drop in the Lib Dem share to fifteen points. During that period the highly stable ICM polls never showed a Lib Dem share below 19%.
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Whatever these numbers will certainly have a political impact because of the febrile situation created by the Middle East crisis. The Lib Dems seem to be on the right side of public opinion and this will reinforce Ming’s position.
Although the voting intention numbers are subject to the “certain to vote” filter this does not apply to the rest of the data from the survey. Among the others questions Mori has support for Blair at its lowest point ever and more people being against Cameron than for him.
To Lib Dems I would say - remember what you were saying about the Mori methodology after that 6% drop in January.
Mike Smithson
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This poll will allow the Lib Dems to jump up and down and get themselves all excited, and maybe do some pretty bar charts showing how they now rule the world. But the problem is that however righteous Sir Menzies is over Lebanon (and I personally think he is right on this) it ain’t getting across on the street. For far too many people this isn’t an issue that excites them, mainly because it isn’t happening to them. The biggest concerns are still health and education. Those people that are going to vote Lib Dem because of Sir Menzies’ line on Lebanon were probably already voting Lib Dem because of the Iraq war. So I don’t see this changing much. I think the fact that most of this poll was taken before Sir Menzies’ had properly formulated a line is significant, and this may just be MORI being MORI. Or it could be explained away by MoE.
However it’s my Birthday today so I’m feeling charitable. Congratulations to the Lib Dems on their three point gain. At this rate by 2051 you will be the official opposition to a Conservative Government.
I am slightly concerned however that we are not making consistent progress on increasing our lead. Whilst Labour is falling away slightly, with DC not making any pronouncements on Lebanon and Israel (presumably because he can’t get the shadow cabinet to agree a line) we are not in the headlines and consequently we are not progressing.
It is interesting, though, that when MORI picks up a trend, for whatever reason, its methodology seems to amplify it. That the Lib Dems were haemorraging support in January is without doubt, with MORI that translated to 15%. I doubted we were as low as that, but it couldn’t be ruled out. That they have us now going up, coinciding with Ming’s stance on Lebanon also makes sense, whatever you think of the actual numbers.
Ben Redsell appears not to have read the FT article: another finding from the poll is that “As during the Iraq war, the importance of foreign affairs and defence has risen in voters’ minds. Thirty-six per cent identified this issue as among the most important facing Britain, placing it ahead of health and just behind immigration and crime in first and second place.”
The frustrating thing is that we have no other polls for a while now with which to compare the trend.
Interestingly, the poll also found that Cameron’s approval ratings have dipped into the red for the first time. Are the wheels coming off his bike (with Lexus in tow)?
2 - We had two polls last week, Chrisco, neither of which detected a shift of any sort to the Lib Dems - indeed ICM, which Mike has already pointed out was in the field slightly more recently than this data from Mori, recorded a drop in Lib Dem support.
As for the ‘wheels coming off Cameron’s bike’, I do wonder… did Ming ever manage to get the wheels on his? On second thought, perhaps attaching wheels to a zimmer frame is rather ill-advised…
Speaking from experience Alistair?
*Alastair*
4/5 - Well, erm, no comment.
It does seem to make sense though that in a poll which shows foreign policy jumping up in importance that it would provide some sort of a boost for the Lib Dems when Blair is so out of line from public opinion and the Tories have gone AWOL on the issue.
Could all come down to question order. If certainty to vote was asked after importance of issues, and foreign policy has come up as an important factor, then those who feel strongly about the Lebanon may say they are more certain to vote, thereby skewing the figures in favour of the Lib Dems.
These figures are so completely out of line with last week’s ICM poll - which was started a day later - that I need to carry out some detailed analysis.
The Mori headline numbers are very much determined by the proportion saying they are certain to vote. In the the ICM survey just 52% of Lib Dems said they were certain compared with 55% for Labour and 64% for the Tories.
My guess is that the Lib Dem boost with Mori came from a much higher “certain to vote” proportion and that was probably the result of this question being asked last. ICM ask it first.
So it might be said that the interview itself reinforced Lib Dem supporters and depressed Tory and Labour ones.
We’ll have to wait to see the detailed data.
Chrisco. That is all frightfully interesting, but in my opinion foreign affairs are rarely ever a determining factor in the way that most people actually vote, unless something of monumental importance is going on. Labour won in 2005 despite the Iraq millstone hanging round its neck - a conflagration that the UK is directly involved in and in which it is risking the lives of its servicemen and expending its treasure on a daily basis.
The latest border skirmish between Israel and Hizbullah controlled South Lebanon - as horrible as the pictures coming out of the region and the humanitarian implications are - simply is not going to have the sort of impact on domestic politics that some people are hoping for.
But you can’t ignore the fact that 36% of respondents said foreign policy was the most important issue facing Britain today. That is an increase of 23% on last month. If those polled had been caused to think of foreign policy before they declared their certainty to vote, it seems to me very likely that it would beef up the Lib Dem certainty to vote numbers.
It is unlikely that the extra 23% are going to declare foreign policy to be of utmost importance (which translates as concern over the situation in Lebanon) and then declare that they are not bothered enough about it to go out and vote.
I should add to that, Chrisco (in case my post at 9 comes off as dismissive which, on having just re-read it, probably does
), that I think your observations at 7 are spot on; I just don’t think that this would actually affect many real votes in the polling both come election time for reasons I give at 9.
10 - Perhaps, but are those additional 23% of people only thinking about foreign policy now because the news out of the middle east as temporarily overshadowed everything else that is going on? Probably.
That would be unlikely to happen during a general election campaign when people, through the media, would surely be focused on a much broader range of issues on which to base a voting decision.
I certainly doubt that Lebanon will be a determining factor in ‘09 (unless the whole Middle East goes completely t*ts up).
However, I do think the current crisis may have brought back on board some of the support we gained over Iraq, and which may have drifted back to Labour. Whether we keep them remains to be seen.
13 - That may well be the case, and most of us Conservatives wouldn’t be too averse to that…
Political leaders have to be lucky as well as astute. Unveiling himself in Kabul when every world leader was concentrating on Beirut shows him to be neither astute nor lucky. And to be seen as an irrelevance is the unkindest cut of all…….. Something you can’t throw at Blair. Right there at the center-but bizarrely on the side of Goliath rather than David. Which leaves Ming. Right place, right time right side right tone and the public like it.
Weird thing opinion polls. There is one on the ICWales site that suggests 52% of the population of Wales want ” Independence in my lifetime”…happy as this makes me I cannot help but be a little sceptical as previous polls indicate support for independence at 17% (rising each year) I guess it all depends how you ask the question.
I’m a Lib Dem and I’m not jumping up & down with excitement about this or any other poll.
All polls are just a snap-shot - and I fully accept that MORI’s methodology makes it more volatile than the others.
What’s important for me is that the party’s fate is in our own hands. I think that the policy and organisational changes we are making will stand us in good stead - and I don’t think there’s any need to panic about either of the other 2 large parties. Hence I’m feeling pretty optimistic, as are most fellow party members I speak with (with a couple of notable exceptions!).
Time will tell whether I’m right, but these things take months and even years to have an impact, so I’m not waiting with baited breath for short-term opinion polling.
This poll suggests to me that ICM may be a (minor) maverick.
Mike makes all the right, usual caveats in his coverage of the Mori poll - it’s a tonic for the LDs, but reading anything much into one poll is silly season politics.
I only wish our host could teach thegrauniad to be as rigorous in their approach - every single story since last Thur about the LDs has majored on their monthly ICM poll. Bored now.
Having said it’s silly to read anything much into one poll, I can’t resist posting this snippet from the FT’s report ;-):
Despite the unhappiness with Mr Blair, the survey findings also make disappointing reading for David Cameron, Conservative leader.
Far from benefiting from the prime minster’s diminishing popularity, Mr Cameron’s approval ratings have fallen, the first real evidence that his honeymoon as party leader is over. For the first time, more people are dissatisfied than satisfied with his performance.
As David Frost might once have remarked, “But seriously, folks, he’s doing a grand job.”
Interesting to look at party satisfaction ratings. During ‘94 The Conservative month by month satisfaction rating went from a low of 8% to a high of 14%. Indeed from 93′ to 97′ it hovered around 14% . By contrast Labour at it’s lowest has never gone below 22% and even during it’s most unpopular year has scored between 22-33%. Those who compare Labours position now with the Conservatives between 93′ and 97′ are wide of the mark.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a Commons committee has suggested re-classifying drugs in a way that rates nicotine as more harmful than LSD. Guess which party the committee’s chairman was from!
“For the first time, more people are dissatisfied than satisfied with his performance”
I thought the slow motion exit from the hellicopter at Kabul airport was well executed.
It looks like Darren’s (DC’s) mole at MORI HQ has leapt into action in defence of OMCSCDS. Next time, Darren, can’t you get it to 30%? That would make Ming safe!
Echo the sentiments of my fellow posters above. One poll doth not a summer make, pleasing though it is. Trends, dear boy, trends …
Incidentally I was called by an organisation called IPSOS MORI yesterday, but as my birthday wasn’t next in the house they wouldn;t talk to me. Is this the same MORI?
[24] Gotta be, “ipsos” is Latin for “themselves” (I think - am I about to show myself up?
) so IPSOS MORI = MORI themselves, accept no substitute!
24 Ipsos are the large MR company who took over Mori last year. They are now a massive conglomerate.
Tabman @ 24: the same. Ipsos bought out MORI last year (or possibly earlier this year, I forget) and the company is now called Ipsos-MORI.
Roger @ 21: Remember that the sample isn’t politically weighted. On topline voting figures MORI are still in line with other pollsters because their harsh filter by likelihood to vote favours the Conservative party. On other questions that aren’t filtered by likelihood to vote, the lack of any political weighting will favour Labour.
25. ‘Ipsos’ is the accusative plural though so that would be grammatically incorrect. Nominative plural is ‘Ipsi’
Government starting to panic over immigration?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=JXKPUQW0WMWZNQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2006/07/31/nimm31.xml
22.”Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a Commons committee has suggested re-classifying drugs in a way that rates nicotine as more harmful than LSD. Guess which party the committee’s chairman was from! ”
Innocent Abroad, I was going to say tories, but it was just prejudice….it was a LibDem in the end.
IA 22. Why is that a problem? Science will show you that nicotine is more dangerous than LSD - it is more addictive (LSD is virtually addiction free) and its addiction is more likely to result in death (death from LSD is exceptionally rare, whereas 50% of cancer deaths are directly attributable to smoking). Perhaps this answer gives an answer to your question as to what party the chair of the committee is from however, it’s good to see that the committee is applying logic rather than prejudice to its suggestions.
Thanks Anthony. Another strange thing is the satisfaction rating of party leaders. By historical standards Camreron’s are very low indeed. Kinnock, Smith and Blair were way above Cameron when in opposition and Thatcher’s satisfaction rating never fell to his level even in her darkest days. Perhaps voters are becoming more cynical these days or perhaps his personal popularity is a myth?
[28] A pedant writes: I think you’ll find it was in the accusative case in Tabman’s original post, old boy…
[31] I don’t disagree at all with what you say. As far as it goes. But would you sooner see your G.P. after (s)he’d had a crafty fag, or an acid tab?
I don’t know if we are very Radio 4 on Pb.com- but “The Now Show” were putting the boot into Cameron as a teletubby- “group hug…”. Hug a Hoodie was perhaps even worse than it seemed at the time.
All caveats accepted on this poll - but as we have noted before, there is all to play for and the Lib Dems have been feeling pretty cheerful for a while, even in the face of poor oppinion polls.
29. I heard Damian Green talking on the subject. He took quite the opposite view to Frank Field and thought the East European immigrants were doing this country a service. In his constituency unemployment is 2.5% and he is being told how grateful employers are to be able to employ Polish (in particular) labour.
Isn’t it odd when traditional party positions are turned on their heads? Or perhaps Frank Field and Damien Green are not representative of their parties?
I see on ConHome that Nick Boles is trying to get the nomination to be the Tory candidate for London mayoral race.
Meanwhile Gorgeous George said he would like to join the race (the mayoral one, not the Tory nomination one!), but just if Ken doesn’t stand
35 - Damian Green has never been very representative of his party. Since being elected he was been pro-Europe and pro-environment, and certainly centre-left in British politics.
[36] That’s why I want open primaries… the thought of “writing in” GG’s name in the Tory primary for London Mayor is just magical…
35 - The one thing you can fairly safely say about Frank Field is that he is not representative of his party (on almost anything). Bizarrely for a Labour MP, if you look at his website there’s no mention anywhere of him having any connection whatsoever with the the Labour Party.
37…..Nor has Frank Field. Another difference of course will be that in Liverpool unemployment is still a factor. Whereas wherever Damien Green represents seems to have none
I am still a little surprised at the criticism of Mori and their methodology as the figures do not bear out that they are more volatile than the other pollsters . Last week Mike gave the record of ICM in giving the Conservative vote share ib the 2 years leading up to the GE . On the same basis Mori are a little more volatile than ICM but less volatile than Yougov .
Mori 33 polls with Conservative share
39-1
38-1
37-2
35-7
34-4
33-4
32-6
31-5
30-1
29-2
Average 33.3
and Yougov 55 polls
40-2
39-4
38-3
37-3
36-5
35-3
34-12
33-11
32-10
31-1
29-1
Average 34.5 %
IMHO I think the LibDem Mori figure a bit high and the Others figure certainly too low but the local council byelection evidence of the last 2 weeks is that the LibDem performance is showing an improvement compared to the May locals .
39. The website is actually quite good. I like the graphics, but yes, he didn’t even mention Labour in the biography page
Roger @ 32: Not sure where you get the Maggie comparison. Her darkest days were 20% satisfaction and -56 net approval.
More generally, Blair obviously got the job with Labour already on a high. Smith and Kinnock are interesting comparisons - the main difference seems to be how much lower the don’t knows are. Of course, it could just be that Cameron is harder for people to pin down and make their mind up about.
I think it’s more likely that though it is a sign of increased disillusionment about politics in general after “sleaze” and a lower level of interest in politics - the proportion of people who can name their local MP these days, for example, is notably lower than it was ten or fifteen years ago (it’s now about 42%, when it used to be in the 50s)
Mark @ 41:
That’s irelevant - you’ve shown again that over time MORI’s figures are close to the other’s pollsters figures.
The criticism however is that they are more volatile from one poll to the next. This won’t effect the average levels of support shown in their polls, as just as they are more likely to show outliers at the top end, they are more likely to show outliers at the bottom end and over time these will cancel out.
The average *change* in the level of support for a party in MORI’s polls is 3.27 points. This compares to YouGov on 1.58 points and ICM 1.77 points, since changing their methodology to make it more stable in January, Populus’s average change has been 1.86 points.
Argh. Spelling disaster. Irelevant=irrelevant. Effect=affect
Anthony
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/trends/satisfac.shtml
I took 89′ to be the darkest days of Thatcher because it was her last full year and her positive figures are pretty good. As discussed yesterday the negative figures don’t mean that much. I take your point about Cameron being difficult to pin down but his positive figures are really not much above the last three Tory losers.
45-Mr Wells- no worries. Your postings, and write ups are excellent and well written. You can be forgiven these odd typo mistakes.
I don’t think this poll means much.
At the moment the Lebanon issue is harming Blair all over the place, despite the fact that he *may* be doing some good behind the scenes. It will keep the Labour vote the Lib Dems won over Iraq away for longer, though not necessairly as far as the next election.
Whilst David Cameron has not come up with a position on the Lebanon William Hauge has describing Israel’s attacks as dissproportionate. My Local MP Nick Soames has as well. I don’t think it will make a long term difference.
What could though is a cabinet revolt under Blair. I am told that when questioned by his cabinet colleagues about a cease fire he has asked if there should be an unconditional cease fire by Israel in the face of continued rocket attacks by Hezboulah. Well now we have a temporay airial cease fire it appears Hezboulah have stopped rocket attacks in line with their previous statements. This may well also cause Blair problems at home.
Breaking News: Blair advising politicians to get into cross dressing:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,1833967,00.html
Naturally, Bob Marshall Andrews was ahead of this time:
http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-images/Politics/Pix/pictures/2005/01/28/312_350-toe.jpg
44 Anthony , I took the same 2 year period that Mike used in his thread last year and over that period the order of volatility was ICM least Mori next Yougov most volatile . Over how many months are your figures based and are there any special factors in that period . FWIW , I do think that ICM’s methodology will tend to damp down and perhaps not even pick up short term effects in public opinion and the Mori methodology will pick them up and magnify them . There is no doubt in my mind that the increase in people in the Mori poll saying foreign affairs is much more important is connected to the rise in LibDem % . It may or may not be that this is a short term 1 or 2 month trend but I think it is a real movement which other pollsters may not pick up because of their methodology .
I will be interested to see what the Yougov tracker shows over this period .
50 Oops last year i first line should say last week - Oh for an edit facility .
How are you measuring volatility Mark?
50, 52 - I suspect that you are getting into confusion by measuring 2 different things. It would appear that Anthony is measuring volatility as that of the month on month changes, whereas Mark is measuring the standard deviation of the poll ratings. Which is correct - well that’s your discussion
Looking at the 2 years running up to the last general election, and taking every single poll (it’s fairer to take only the regular monthly polls, but I couldn’t be bothered to separate them), the average change in party support between one poll and the next was 1.30 for YouGov, 1.40 for ICM, 2.18 for MORI and 2.28 for Populus (though Populus changed their methodology part of the way through this, so their later polls were far more stable).
49- Andrea thanks but, both links are unpleasant, one visually, the other verbally. Blair trying to re-invent himself as some pseudo intellectual heavyweight. Get real. Blair has this unique capacity to believe in his own propoganda, and his personal sense of justice and self righteousness no matter how contradictory, vacuous, unprincipled and downright unseemly it all actually is.
Ming must be safe now after such a good poll. He needs to be given time to show his true worth as party leader…
Lennon - that would match with Mark’s order.
A very pleasing poll.
24-Tabman. Phew! Things are back on track after a nervous time…
55. Tyson, sorry to have given you unpleasant links!
I have not measured or calculated anything Anthony , I simply listed as Mike did the Conservative % in every Mori and Yougov poll in the 2 years prior to the last GE . Even without working out standard deviations it is clear that in this period ICM had the least volatile results and Yougov more outliers than Mori .
My main comment on all polls in the last few months has been and remains that record government disapproval and all the bad publicity has apparently left the Labour government retaining 90% plus of it’s support at the last GE but when people go out and vote in real elections they retain only 60-70% of their GE vote . A number of theories have been given by various posters on here to explain this but I have yet to be convinced by any of them and feel that around 30% is the true level of Labour support at this time .
Good morning all. A good weekend - cooked 4 salmon for the Cricket Club Presidents Lunch - all well received. The local Rector thanked God for providing the town with the cricket club and the beautiful ground - though the 1st XI’s results have been awful this year. A dreaful M1 this morning and made the mistake of a detour via a car park called the A52 in Derby.
But what a bright, glorious dawn, a relief for us Lib Dems after last week (and a load of nonsense this far from when Mr Murdoch allows us to have an election).
I am still concerned about measuring “the certainty to vote” of responders. This far from a GE who knows how likely they are to vote (I might be dead). It is I think generally accepted that Lib Dems poll slightly better in actual elections than in polls, because they are more noticed at the election - perhaps MORI’s approach more closely represents an actual election when the election in question is 4 years away.
In the ICM poll the movement of 6 points from “vote for someone” to “not bother to vote” between June and July could lead to significant changes in favour of whoever can manage catch the mood of the electorate in the coming months. I really do not see the Dour One or the Young Rich One connecting with more than a small proportion of the voters. It is all to play for.
59- Andrea no worries.
Interested to read your interest in films vis a vis Ken Loach the other day.
Channel 4’s top 5 films to see before you die;
5 Sexy Beast
4 Chinatown
3 City of God
2 Apartment
1 Apocalypse Now
I do not think Loach got one in the top 50, not even Kes. All the 5 above though have an interesting political dimension, reflected either in their message (Apocalypse Now), or downright condemnation of the corruption and alienation of capitalism (City of God, Sexy Beast, Chinatown, Apartment). Vive il cinema!
Average Lib Dem poll ratings by company (since Election 2005)
ICM: 20.71%
MORI: 21.25%
Populus: 19.42%
You Gov: 18.35%
What this poll shows along with all the others, is there is no appetite for the return of a ‘Conservative government’. The majority of voters in this country, and by country I mean the UK, are left of centre, sixty percent plus. Who knows what the future will bring, perhaps a realingnment of the left. Lets see how the Tory party will cope with that!
64 - Nonsense - with Tony Blair’s New Labour a pale blue reflection of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems inching towards lower taxes and freer markets, we hardly have a truly ‘left’ major party in our system.
I would suspect that the vast majority of UK voters are mildly centre/centre right. I believe that this has been tested in polling in the past but cannot lay my hands on the evidence. Perhaps Anthony can help!
Rik W, both Yougov and Populus have carried out polls showing that the median point among voters is slightly right of centre.
65. Couldn’t it be the case that people tend to place themself at “centre” political ground…but their definition of what the centre is can be different?
According to MORI in March 2006, people described their own political views in that way:
New Labour 18
Old Labour 16
Liberal 12
One Nation Tory 11
Thatcherite Tory 11
Social Democrat 6
Nationalist 4
Other 1
None of these 13
Don’t know 8
But again I suppose the definition of these labels can vary
35 I think they are both unrepresentative of their parties, but are also perhaps reflecting the interests of their supporters in their constituencies. Many of Damian Green’s will benefit from an influx of cheap labour, and many of Frank Field’s will lose out from it.
Overall this poll is just further evidence that the public are not enthusiastic about any party but it is still all to play for.
The poll shows that labour support is flakey and liable to go to the lib dems as and when they get their act together (as has happened over the last few weeks). The tories are pretty stable so they’ll be pleased to see that movement.
Clearly there is little appetite for another labour government, given that barely 20% of the electorate supported them last time it’s clear that there is no desire for labour’s statist solutions. A realignment of tories and lib dems appears to be happening (lib dems economically and tories socially) and, finally, we may get a government which reflects this.
Morning all :). A reasonable poll from MORI and I’ve never said anything about their methodology or anyone else’s. I’m an ICM “fan” but they have thrown out the odd outlier in the past and this month’s poll may or may not turn out to be similar. Even if one “follows” ICM that doesn’t mean one should take every poll in isolation. Equally, the FT MORI poll may be an outlier too.
As for the issue of where people place themselves politically, I find it fascinating that only 6% of people see themselves as “Social Democrats” when we have had Social Democratic government since 1990. The figures quoted by Andrea explain much about voter volatility.
An interesting poll that probably picks up a trend but as usual overstates it. Here the Lib Dems are probably benefiting from the rise of foreign policy issues up the political agenda but not to the extent that Mori suggests. This is because post Iraq the Lib Dems have become established as the peacenik party in British politics which benefits them here as most people want to see an end to hostilities as soon as possible. I doubt though the improvement is actually linked to anything Ming has been saying merely the rise of the middle east up the political agenda. The same phenemonum boosts the Conservatives when immigration and asylum moves up the political agenda.
As for Cameron’s personal ratings it seems he is taking a hit from the hug a hoodie headlines. This should be a warning about the perils of spinning too much. However he is right to continue to challenge Conservative beliefs in the area of law and order particularly as they relate to the causes of crime.
The ‘hug a hoodie’ was labour’s idea and the firsty succesful bit of ’spin’ that they’ve had for ages. Reading Cameron’s speech it was actually vastly superior than anything that comes out of the mouth of John Reid, whose only purpose is to point out how wonderful he is and how vicious he can be.
That the tories didn’t then attack labour straight away to counter that spin was a tactical mistake and one that they cannot afford to repeat.
It’s a three horse race!
MORI do cause too much volatility through their system of filtering, but their overall record isn’t bad.
What I like about them is that they regularly ask about the importance of various issues, and they regularly survey levels of approval of the party leaders, both of which throw up interesting information.
Rik W & Sean: There are a couple of polls that have asked people to rate themselves on a left-right scale. Have a look through Populus and YouGov’s archives to find them. The bottom line is that sometimes they turn out to be ever so marginally left-of-centre, sometimes ever so marginally right-of-centre, but basically people are on average very close to the centre. The average rating of the general public on a scale of -100 to +100 is
normally somethine like +2 or -2 - very centrist.
This isn’t a great surprise of course - the “centre” is a movable feast, and no doubt many, many people consider the epitome of sensible, centrist moderation to be, erm, themselves
75: Notably MORI’s important issue question is unprompted, making it far, far more valuable than similar questions asked with a list of important issues to chose from.
Re: 8 - Mike, I think it’s always been the case that LD support has been the softest and least committed but in a GE campaign, the vote DOES harden and turn out. We’ve seen this before in most elections.
Taking the figures simply on “Absolutely Certain to Vote” is, in my view, a misnomer at this point in the electoral cycle. Take out all those who absolutely won’t vote but no one knows what the turnout at the next GE will be. I suspect a higher turnout becuase of a) closer contest and b) more abstaining Tories returning to the fold.
My abiding memory of polling day 1992 is the turnout which I believe won the contest for the Tories. Up to now, surveys of those NOT voting have suggested a large pool of potential Labour voters out there so, in other words, a higher turnout equals a better result for Labour. That may well no longer be the case.
I do think the Conservatives will win elections with low turnouts but a GE with a turnout back toward 70% - I think it will be much harder for the Conservatives to capture 120+ seats in that environment.
Anyone know is the LD complaint about Prezza is going to go anywhere and do yet more damage?
78 - Given the contempt with which politicians are widely held now, coupled with a lack of variety as the main parties dance on the same pinhead, I can’t see turnout recovering to 65% let alone 70% or above.
I believe that Sheffield University Department of politics, did a huge survey a few years ago, which showed the majority of people, marginally left of centre, roughly 65% to 35%. This begged the question why therefore (at that time) had there been a long period of Conservative governments. 1. The first past the post system, then but not now, favoured them. 2. The trade unions, labour seemed to be under their control, even people on the centre left opposed this. 3. Defence, the Soviet Union was a threat at the time, and Labour was seen as ’soft’ on that threat.
Since then, the first past the post system if anything favours Labour more than the Tories. The Trade Unions are effectively shackled by the law, although debt is probably just as much a controlling factor, try getting someone out on a picket line whose got a £200,000 mortgage could be a bit difficult. The Soviet Union is no longer a threat, the new threat Islamic fundementalism, could hardly paint TB soft on that.
Therefore the removal of above, has made voting for the ‘left’ more acceptable. When it comes to the Tories many people even those who could favour them, are put off by class attitudes, and the Tories core belief ‘Socialism for the rich, a welfare state for the wealthy,’ Prove it! tell a Tory that all subsidies for farmers/landowners should be srapped immediately, and the ‘countryside’ should be handed over to the free market, you will be amazed by how socialist the become, ditto the monarchy.
don’t shout me down, please, but I agree with Blair about the increasing breakdown of the left/right spectrum. Equally, I agree about the divisions being open cf closed societies. However, my perspective on this latter division is seen on an authoritarian/libertarian axis. In this perspective, Blair is moving us from being open (libertarian) to becoming a more closed (authoritarian) society.
Well done Tony. Correct analysis, wrong direction!
This is interesting:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2289232,00.html
“A student team in Jerusalem combs the web in a host of different languages to flag the sites so that those who have signed up can influence an opinion survey or the course of a debate.”
Given the high profile of pb.com these days, I wonder if this site is in the software list of chatrooms. The software itself is here:
http://www.giyus.org/
…perhaps some IT guru here can tell us?
82.If TB’s analysis is correct then what future is there for the current Parties? They become simply a nexus of cash, influence and talent - devoid of a core intellectual or moral purpose.
Plus ca change perhaps?
91 - All rendered obsolete by the fact that this government is more right wing than many previous conservative governments.
There hadn’t been a left wing government for decades.
92 - Absolutely correct and this is why my dislike of Blair knows no bounds (together with Murdoch and lackeys). New labour has used the means of its youth (Stalinist/Trotskyist in the main) to propagate an increase in the centralisation of power and the means of executing it within the state (often with what are considered right wing positions). For me it’s the worst of all worlds.
84. Sounds like much of the 18th century in the UK to me, especially the period just before the French Revolution featuring the bizarre Fox-North coalition.
The detailed results of the poll are now on the Mori website .
” Certain to vote ” Con 36 Lab 32 LibDem 24
” All respondents ” Con 32 Lab 37 LibDem 23
Is MORI ever that reliable? I seem to remember they were bouncing all over the place in 2005.
Paul. We all arrive with our prejudices but at least the rest of us try to find evidence for them!
“The poll shows that labour support is flakey and liable to go to the lib dems….” Really. Where?
“Clearly there is little appetite for another labour government, given that barely 20% of the electorate supported them last time” But LESS than 20% supported any other party……
” it’s clear that there is no desire for labour’s statist solutions” Really….I didn’t see mention of “statism” anywhere……
And……
“A realignment of tories and lib dems appears to be happening” Trully bizarre
You must have access to a MORI poll that no one else has!
[84] Of course, if we could choose between candidates of the same party,as well as between those of different parties, then the raison d’etre of the policy vacuum based party system begins to erode substantially.
BTW, (I think Anthony Wells may be able to answer this) what proportion of the electorate vote for the winning candidate in their constituency? Therefore what is the proportion of voters who vote for something other than the winning candidate?
It was interesting to hear Margaret Beckett lose her cool this morning. The pressure had clearly got to her. That she is probably having to sell a line she isn’t comfortable with must be difficult but there again the solution is in her own hands
Those of you suffering local election round-up withdrawal symptoms are welcome to visit Vote 2006…
89 - Again you deny the evidence that is clearly there!
The lib dem post Kennedy drift disproportionately boosted the labour vote, given the situation in the middle east it is those voters, such as yourself, who are peeling away (that was from study of post election polls, particularly how lib dem voters were disproportionately labour switchers).
Just because a party ‘wins’ with 20% it doen’t give them much more of a mandate than one with 19%, with PR at least we are less likely be ruled by a small proportion of the country, haven’t you been converted to PR yet?!
That labour is statist is a given, the centralisation of power, throwing money at the public sector, the need to create legislation on top of legislation etc etc. I would have thought that labour supporters themselves would admit that they see the state as being the solution not the problem.
The realignment of tories and lib dems I refer to is through policy and, again, that is incontrovertible. Lib dem taxation drifts rightwards, tory social policy drifts leftwards. As for voters I can’t see much more of a drift between the two.
I thought that all of this was pretty clear and didn’t think it needed to be expanded, sorry if it wasn’t!
91. Personally I think having a Foreign Secretary with the wide overseas experience and personal gravitas of Margaret Beckett is a big plus for the UK.
94 Caravan Club. Personally I think getting stuck behind Margaret Beckett and ilk on Scottish roads is a big plus for the Tories and Lib Dems.
I propose a caravan tax of 99% of GDP …. for starters !!!!!!
Cicero @ 90: Quick back of a metaphorical fag packet calculation, in 2005 about 53% of people voted for a candidate who did not win his or her seat (that seems a bit low, someone might want to double check it).
Sorry Paul. Your post at 70 was just garbage. Your justification at 93 is just as bad.
93. Good post. Btw, are you “Paul” on Liberal Views (the site my name links to)?
Re Magerate Becket. Her problem is the Israeli’s just won’t listen if you shout at them. They sure as hell need telling something, so it is probably easier to get the message accross if they are listening.
97 - Well I’m sorry Roger but it’s based on polling evidence and evidence from party policy, you may want to deny it for some reason but
1) lib dem voters are disproportionately labour switchers.
2) No party has the trust of the British electorate
3) Labour is a party allied to the use of the state to improve people’s lives.
4) Tories are drifting leftwards (hence Heffer, Tebbit etc being angered) and lib dems are, on tax policy at least, moving to a more tory friendly position.
All of these are pretty obvious so rather than stick your head in the sand how about giving your opposing reasons.
Red Flag’s post slightly above mine was the reason I posted my antithesis, a post which truly was absolute garbage, that you skip over his suggests that your labour colours haven’t really changed.
When it comes down to it you don’t seem to desire a truly liberal government at all, just labour with the edges knocked off.
98 - Sorry Julian, no, that might be Paul Lloyd. I waste enough time on the few boards that I contribute to, never mind adding more onto the list!
Caravan Club.I understand it’s being converted to a war room and being driven to Auchtermuchty as we speak.
Beckett reminds me of a cross between Rosa Klebb and Shergar.
Paul. It wasn’t your theories I was complaining about. It was the assumptions you were making from your reading of the MORI poll that didn’t exist in the poll. I didn’t skip over Red Flag’s post-I just couldn’t understand it!
05 - Well we are all guilty of ‘reading in’ to polls, that’s all we seem to discuss at times! With a lib dem rise, linked to the increase in foreign affairs as an important issue I didn’t think it was much of a leap to conclude that labour voters had peeled off to lib dems (and you were actually one of the pieces of evidence!)
As to the bits about realignment and such it was in a separate paragraph and wasn’t meant to link to the poll as such.
Oh well, let’s move on.
Mark (87)
“The detailed results of the poll are now on the Mori website .
” Certain to vote ” Con 36 Lab 32 LibDem 24
” All respondents ” Con 32 Lab 37 LibDem 23″
Is that right Labour with a 5 points lead? I have checked on the MORI site and it does seem to be what they are saying.
Incidentally Paul, Lebanons Prime Minister is turning out to be an outstanding politician and leader. So far he hasn’t put a foot wrong. He’s kept his country together (along with Israels stupidity of course) and refusing to see Condi Rice was a masterstoke.
“refusing to see Condi Rice was a masterstoke”
Why?
007..don’t speak ill of the dead now.
Roger,lets see what masterstroke he pulls when this beefed up international peacekeeping force is actually on the plate for real, and Hizbollah say no to it…
06 - MORI’s filter is by certainty to vote, so as polls always overstate labour’s support if unadjusted (for whatever reason, likelihood to answer polls etc) this is their way of adjusting. ICM et al use different methods but if you look at their raw figures you will see somthing similar.
07 - Agreed - what a travesty it will be if this whole affair ends up with him being weakened by a surge of extremism. I sometimes wonder (as was posited in an article I linked to last week) that the Israelis are subconsciously wanting to make their opponents more extreme than they are.
94-Is this jest?
09 - Given the support for Hezbollah across Lebanon now he may subsume their militia into the official Lebanese forces, this would enable them to declare a victory and would put them under international law whilst ensuring that any ‘disarming’ was unnecessary.
110. The Iranian government more extreme than it is? how is that possible? Mel Gibson to join it?
90.”BTW, (I think Anthony Wells may be able to answer this) what proportion of the electorate vote for the winning candidate in their constituency? Therefore what is the proportion of voters who vote for something other than the winning candidate? ”
If you look at the whole potential electorate (so people registred to vote) only 2 MPs in whole UK got the support of at least 40% of their constituents.
ukpaul..subsuming of Hizbollah into the regular Lebanese army won’t happen. It’s Iran’s proxy and the Sinoira government doesn’t want to get in bed with them.
The whole Iran/Israeli thing is over-rated anyway. Iran’s puruit of nuclear weapons is nore about domination its near neighbors than taking on Israel. the Israel business is just a useful cheerleading tool and Hizbollah are the ones with the pom poms..
05. Methinks you are all getting too obsessed by polls. Here I am on my holidays, trying to sell a house, and wanting to start a far more agreeable and interesting conversation on politics and film at posting number 62 with no uptake.
UK politics is so boring nowadays- tediously, life sappingly, boring. No ideology, no ideas, no energy- just froth, and spin. 2 politicians stand above this- Gordon and Ming. As many posters have pointed out maybe they are spin driven as well but just better at concealing it?
Also, Roger, tribal Labour but lost the stomach for Blair and NuLab. It is clear that your mild flirtation with the LD’s is just that. Like me I know which box you will tick at the end of the day. Comes down to that tribal blood instinct that is impossible to shake.
Camerons figures are down to 29%. Less than his party. I wonder why? It could be that he’s seen as lightweight or it could be the ridicule he received for his hoodie intervention. My own feeling is that it’s the cumulative effect of several high profile stunts. Rather like Jeffrey Archer and Posh Spice. Compulsive publicity seekers without purpose other than self promotion can be liked but are not often taken seriously.
Apologies to the late posters because the switch to the middle east is far more interesting than dissecting the mori poll by certainties to vote.
95 I must go out and buy an enormous caravan and travel to Scotland in it…slowly.
117. ‘Compulsive publicity seekers’
Would you include yourself under that heading?
106 Icarus , yes it is quite normal on Mori for Labour to do around 5% better on the all expressing support for a party question which is why Mori publish the figures with only those certain to vote . ICM’s adjustment for likelihood to vote is more complicated but if they had only included those absolutely certain to vote ( 47% of those questioned ) their figures would have been Con 42.5 Lab 32.5 LibDem 17 Others 8 .
113. Reza. You aren’t one of those Israeli students written about in the Times to-day who have been deputed to ’sell’ Israel on foreign websites?
109. I understand from an American University poll that Hizbollah now has the support of over 90% of the Lebanese people. If accurate this is extraordinary. Before this invasion the figure would have probably been around 30%. Indeed many of my Christian collegues marginally preferrred the Israelis to Hisbullah. Incidentally expect Hizbullah to strike a very hard bargain.
20- A feature of this site is that when anti Cameroons offer any critique of the Tory leader they encounter personal abuse. It is a kind of bullying.
Politicians, parties and policies are fair game no matter how unpleasant the postings- but Tory posters often play the man rather than the ball.
96.”Quick back of a metaphorical fag packet calculation, in 2005 about 53% of people voted for a candidate who did not win his or her seat (that seems a bit low, someone might want to double check it).”
In 218 seats the winning candidate got more than 50% of the voters: 140 Labour, 54 Con, 16 Libdems, 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SNP, 1 Plaid and Peter Law
Tyson. Pot and Kettle doesn’t talk about politics only posters. That’s why I -and I think everyone else- just ignores him.
72 - I think the Lib Dem position is more than just ‘peacenik’.
I think a majority of the British public will support the use of UK troops when there is a clear justification for it.
What they will not support is the use of UK troops on the basis of a fiction, or tacit UK support for military action which is clearly inhumane.
In recent years I think we should credit the Lib Dems with having been in line with this view, and on Iraq in particular they were ahead of it.
122. Roger, why do you (and so many others) let a reasonable criticism of the Israeli government turn into such a polarised and tribal stance? What is wrong with Reza’s post? Is the Iranian government not extreme? Is Gibson not worthy of being mocked after his racist outburst?
Julian I’m sorry if that’s how I sounded. I was genuinly interested because of post 83. And I hadn’t heard ‘Reza’s’ name before
“This is interesting:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2289232,00.html
“A student team in Jerusalem combs the web in a host of different languages to flag the sites so that those who have signed up can influence an opinion survey or the course of a debate.””
WARNING:
All the Roger Mark II’s have been recalled for the retro-fit of the higher capacity splenetic filter. Without this fitting the unit can become unstable and randomly regurgitate a variety of propaganda that the unit receives automatically from its built-in WIFI module.
In extreme cases of logic circuit malfunction it can start to re-broadcast data from other sources for which the manufacturer’s cannot be responsible. It has a particular tendency to believe it has a close affinity to,and understanding of, the middle east and that it does not belong the the Labour party. In this condition it is particularly important that technicians be called immediately or the alcohol/oxygen fuel cell might rupture and cause serious damage turning everything orange before it self destructs.
If you have such a Roger, or you know where one is located as a stand alone unit, please contact
The Clone-of-Rogers Programme
The Labour Party Research Department,
39 Victoria Street,
London SW1H 0HI
(We regret we never give our phone number in case you should use it to call us)
Roger- Not just Pot and kettle though. When I have my left wing rants (as is my wont) often get feedback like immature, childish, so on (wish I was 20 years younger). Others too (Red flag) as well gets a bit of personal grief. I am sure we can all take it- just an observation at how many of the Tory posters lash out personally. Though there are decent exceptions- Benedict White.
129. Top post!
Andrea- do you get paid to do this research? You so seem to be walking phenomenon.
It does seem that Conservatives take criticism of their Party and the leaders more personally than the rest of us. We like to practice our criticism on our own leaders first!
128. Fair enough, perhaps I was being judgmental.
[96][124] Thanks to both, but if there are only 215 seats where the winner had an absolute majority, the idea that only 53% overall did not get what they want sounds really quite low. Even in those 215 seats at least 40% did not vote for the winner, and in many other seats the plurality was less than 40%- so this average of 53% sounds funny indeed.
RE Yokel, 115, I agree on the Iran nuclear issue, it is more of our problem than Israels, and it would be easier to deal with if we kept it that way. You can’t nuke Israel with out killing lots of Palestinians anyway.
However on the absorbing the Hezboulah army may be popular in Lebanon because they are popular there. How that is handled is another matter. One of the big problems would be breaking the existing chain of command.
33- precisely. Right wingers are such sycophants. The other day someone (I think DC) referred to Cameron as great. Almost made me puke. I mean Mandela could be seen as great, Churchill, possibly J Lennon. Surely not even ultra Blairites would refer to him as great- would they?????
As a left winger there are very few politicians (sitting MPs) I intuitively feel positively about- but usually this is based on their personal qualities that transcends their politics. I can name them on one hand- Rifkind (intelligence and orator), K. Clarke (resilience and affability), Letwin (intelligence again and affability), Ming (seniority and gravitas), Teather (erotic, sexuality- don’t ask!!) Gordon (last and only heavyweight in Lab). Actually more Tories than Labour.
I do think the left are far more pragmatic and critical of their politicians though.
30. Andrea. Does it matter a monkeys who the chair of the all party committeee was? You may do things differrently in Little Italy but in UK parliament the Chair does not have a sten gun in his violin case. The report will be endorsed by all (unless there is a dissenting report by a minority), and the scientific advice provided to it is provided by the same experts equally to all members.
This thread is rapidly becoming as self-indulgent as yesterday’s.
136. Benedict.They could always change their constitution and Nazrallah could stand for President
137. Tyson. I’ve got to ask!!!
135. Cicero, excluding North Ireland:
Votes for Lab winning candidates: 6.637.024 (+ 15,153 for the speaker)
Votes for Con winning candidates: 4.457.828 (+ 13,343 in South Staffordshire)
Votes for LD winning candidates: 1.284.238
Votes for SNP winning candidates: 82.470
Votes for Plaid winning candidates: 40.905
Votes for Peter Law: 20,505
Votes for Dr Taylor: 18,739
Votes for Gorgeous George:15,801
So the total should be: 12,585,506 out of 26,431,373. So 47.61% voted for the winning candidates.
Anthony’s figures (53%) was right in the end.
RE 140, Roger, I lived through the begining of a similar process. I don’t think they will be doing that again.
138. Zebidee, read better next time….I just replied to a question.
Anyway thanks for your daily lesson…sadly for you you just wasted your time, because I already knew everything you said.
Roger, you know nothing about politics, just rather contrived and self indulgent insults, presumably well honed from Millfield.
When you actually say something worthwhile rather than childsih point scoring someone (whoever paid your school fees for instance) might consider your views as oposed to jibes worthy of interest.
39- there is nothing wrong with a good dose of self-indulgence- you must try it.
and Zebidee 138- please do not stereotype Italians