Is the terror threat being exaggerated?
August 17th, 2006-
Yougov finds that less than one in two believes the politicians
In a YouGov poll for this week’s Spectator just 49% of those surveyed said “No” to the question “Do you think British politicians generally exaggerate the terrorist threat?” A total of 12% said they did exaggerate “because they are ill informed themselves” while 23%, nearly a quarter, agreed with the statement “Yes, they do – and they know that the truth is not as they portray it”.
Men seem to have a far more cynical view of the politicians with just 45% saying that threats are not being exaggerated compared with 53% for the women. Also having a much more jaundiced view than the population as a whole are those under the age of 30 and people living in the Midlands and Wales
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These figures, from a survey online of 1,600 taken on Monday and Tuesday, seem to indicate an extraordinary level of cynicism and far higher than I would have expected. Generally in times of a crisis or major threat there’s a strong move to back the Government
The magazine is presenting the numbers the other way round and states that “61% believe the government is not deliberately exaggerating the terrorism threat”.
By 55-29 those surveyed agreed with the statement “Passenger profiling is a recent term used to describe the process of selecting passengers based on their background or appearance. Would you like to see ‘passenger profiling’ introduced?
Just 14% agreed that “Britain should continue to align herself closely with the USA” while 55-28 agreed that most British Muslims are moderate?
The Home Secretary and potential leadership challenger, John Reid, might be encouraged by the 69-23 support for making it “possible to detain terror suspects who have NOT been charged with any offence for up to 90 days?”
I think that we need some proper voting intention figure before we can draw wider political conclusions. There should be more YouGov BrandIndex data this weekend.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, In the Brindex survey I completed earlier this week, the political questions that followed the brand stuff were rather more detailed than previously, including a wider slection of politicians to rate.
Ooops, that should have been BrandIndex.
I’m not sure why David cameron chose to criticize the governments handling of the terror crisis the day he arrived back from holiday? It was poorly judged as the figures above show but instinctively we knew that anyway.
Being brought up at Carlton he’ll be from the Richard Branson school which believes ‘all publicity’s good publicity’. Which also explains the floral swimwear. Unfortunately-as Prescott will confirm-this doesn’t work for senior politicians
The public’s understandable cynicism is a direct result of ‘New’ Labour’s constant lying and distortion of facts since Tony Blair became leader. Reap what you sow.
Three posts and already Roger’s having a pop at David Cameron on a string that’s got nothing to do with him - good morning! He didn’t say the threat was being exaggerated, he said it could be dealt with better.
The public’s always been fairly cynical of politicians and their motives, but I do think that it’s increased over recent years - I don’t know the figures but I’m sure can be found. The public’s reaction to spin is rather like a body reacting to an external stimulant: after a while it has less effect because the tolerance levels increase - at the same time, both immidiate withdrawal and continued and increased usage (necessary to achieve the effect desired), both bring dangers to its health.
5. As Cameron knows the public don’t hear the nuance of the criticism. What he did was deliberate and a mistake. I don’t believe a word this government says about terrorism but I flinched when I heard Cameron. I just thought ‘what an idiot’. The public weren’t with him. And politically this is likely to be the most significant outcome. Reid wasn’t going anywhere anyway
John O @ 1 - they haven’t changed, it just uses a split sample and you ended up in different splits. About 2,000 people do the poll every day, but for the political questions it gets split three ways, so around 600 or so get one set of questions, 600 get another set of questions and so on.
Originally you must have got the split with the four questions asking about job approval for Brown/Blair/Cameron/Campbell, while the last time you got the survey just must have been put in the split that got the questions on whether you have a positive or negative opinion about a list of about 15 or 16 politicians.
5 - I think since his defection as a Labour supporter has trigerred within him the same obsession with David Cameron and the Conservative Party that up till now had only been seen in Lib Dems.
You would think they would eventually get bored of scanning ConHome for signs of dissesnt, or writing articles about us and him on their blogs or commenting on his wardrobe - but sadly not.
7 - that makes some sense now. The past couple of BrandIndex polls I’ve done haven’t had any political questions in them at all apart from the ones about local education, local health, local council, etc.
re 6. I bet you that Cameron’s ratings will be up this week.
10. Really? I’d be very surporised. We’ll see who’s the smarter pundit!!
10 - It will be interesting to see if that’s true Mike. If so Labour would have to look at whether it was wise or not to further hype up the story.
7 - Anthony, Many thanks for the explanation. I’ve always been on the ‘other’ split
5 - I think Roger wants DC all for himself…naturally as a model in his next shampooing ad in Saudi Arabia
I’d guess Cameron’s approval and disapproval ratings will both go up slightly, but I doubt if most people will have paid much attention to his comments, or anyone else’s - they’re interested in the alleged plot, everything else is seen as froth.
I agree with David H’s comments on cynicism and spin, though I expect we tend to disagree about who spins most. Personally I think journalists spin more than any politician, by a large margin - they decide what the story line is, and take facts and quotes to support it, while pretending to be neutral. The change started with Watergate - since then, every journalist dreams of being the heroic investigator who uncovers a monstrous scandal (as Watergate probably indeed was), and it’s eclipsed the ’scrupulous presenter of balance’ self-image.
Naturally this feeds cynicism about politicians and anything the government of the day says: I’m pleasantly surprised that only 23% think that politicians are deliberately exaggerating the issue. But I think people are taking a fairly sensible line about the alleged plot. As one of the Muslims interviewed yesterday in the press said (quoting from memory), “There are too many arrests for it to be all nonsense, but we’ll need to see the charges and evidence before we really know how much is involved.” This is a perfectly reasonable position and doesn’t show cynicism, just a proper caution.
The survey results are no real surprise . Most of us are both cynical of governments using bad news to their own advantage and hoping that the threats are exaggerated . We do not want to see air travel for example as a high risk activity associated with check-in security procedures which take longer than the flights themselves .
Although being a natural cynic I am prepared to take this latest threat as real and the government actions as correct , There are 23/24 people currently under arrest . The danger for the government is that if the majority of these do not end up being charged and convicted with serious offences the government will not be believed in a future similar situation .
Part of the problem is the totally illogical and incomplete way in which these new restrictions are being imposed- Not even being able to bring a magazine on the plane yesterday, I can not help feeling that the rules are being set by fools and policed by morons.
We are told that we “can not be 100% safe” and then we are also told that “we must sacrifice some liberties for safety”. Perhaps “Dr.” Reid feels at one with the East German Communists, which Brecht so witheringly satirized:
The Solution
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
When an ex-Commie (however “ex”, I would still not vote for an “ex fascist” either) starts talking about “reducing liberty”, I am tempted to reach for my shot gun.
17 - Quote an unrepetant Stalinist at length though.
17. I think that Brecht quote has been done to death on this site now.
16 I have to take a tablet …. I agree with Mark Senior.
i would as there is another element this poll will not have picked up. Many people seem to distinguish between the overall threat and the particular threat of the moment. A massive majority take the first as very serious but seem to tend to cynicism in particular cases. And that is based on the government’s track record of hype and bluster.
On the terror threat, governments are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If an atrocity was perpetrated, the government would be criticised for not doing enough, if it isn’t, then its doing to much, can’t win! On Cameron, don’t think his ratings will change much, but if anything will probably marginally decline. The jury is still out on him, will he go the way of WH, IDS, MH.In the whole of the 20th century, only two Conservative Party leaders didn’t become PM, Austen Chamberlain and William Hague. Five years into the 21st and there have been three WH, IDS, MH, (WH twice cos’ he straddled the century) four if you count DC, but he hasn’t fought a GE yet, so it would be unfair to count him. It’s also been the longest period of continuous opposition for the Tories in 200 years. Although of course thats irrelevant, statistics should only be counted from the introduction of universal franchise, when women were given the vote: interesting.
JohnO. Another acerbic comment from a high flying Conservative returning from holidays! The start of the ‘Big Push perhaps? I hope you broke ranks in your choice floral swimwear? I’ve nothing against Boden’s catalogue if you must but surely there was a choice!!
RE 17, Cicero, thanks for that, made me smile.
Re 15, Nick Palmer, i agree with much of what you say. In particular we as a population think there must be something there, but want to see actual evidence at some point.
I note the 90 day without charge issue still seems popular. Nick, do you remember which way the DUP voted on the issue?
Re my 23, It appears that Ian Paisley voted against 90 detention.
Is he soft on terror?
Or more importantly, are the government soft in the head on this issue?
I wonder if the real news in this YouGov poll is the finding that 28% don’t agree with the proposition that most Muslims are moderate. A lot has been written in recent weeks about the danger of radicalisation among the Muslim population, but perhaps we are ignoring another risk - the radicalisation of the non-Muslim population.
22 - Roger, hardly acerbic, old thing. Sadly, swimwear, floral or otherwise, would have been singularly inappropriate while climbing every mountain, fording every stream, and following every by-way in the Austrian Alps, that has been my, er, “leisure” these last 10 days.
Now lederhosen…
Re 25 - Very rarely do we hear a politician use “multiculturalism” - the triumph of experience over aspiration perhaps?
RE 25, Fred, that is a big proplem. What the people who are trying to radicalise Muslims are trying to do is seperate them from us. What we don’t need is a large swathe of our population giving them a hand.
‘Moderate’ is a tricky word in relation to religion. I know some people who I would describe as fundamentalists who are are far from ‘moderate’ but quite inoffensive
25, 28, Indeed. The performance of the BNP in Council by-elections over the next weeks and months may provide some evidence of such ‘radicalisation’
29. True, but I don’t see many (any) ‘fundamentalist’ Christians, Jews, Hindus, Buddhists or indeed secularists appearing to condone, or shying away from unreservedly condemning, domestic terrorism.
My contacts tell me that John Reid and the Home Office are in despair at Prescott’s press release slagging off Cameron. It seems that Cameron’s people and Reid’s people got together and planned to create a cross-party consensus to unfreeze the Home Office budget and put some pressure on Gordon. Reid felt his hand would be strengthened in dealing with Gordon if Cameron was seen to have made the running on the HO budget issue. Unfortunately, this carefully laid plan was blown out of the water by Prescott’s bungling. Also, Baroness Scotland popped up on the BBC parroting the Prezza line. Doc Reid is apparently livid with the pair of them.
Just a note to say that I would be careful about interpreting the Brandindex survey data. I am a regular participant in Yougov surveys, and the Brandindex one nearly always causes me to loose the will to live halfway through. The brand questions are dull as ditchwater and repetitive; it’s obviously not just me as Yougov have introduced extra incentives for those completing the survey. Those that make it through to the end and the political questions may not be representitive of the sample initially selected.
Re 32, Perhaps reid also understands the importance of enforcing the laws we already have, like those against incitement to murder, (hate preachers), and wanted to get the budget to do the job?
28. 31. There is a danger that Muslims will become viewed in the same light as Catholics were in much of the early modern period - as a group who at best have an uncertain loyality to the state, and at worst are a dangerous fifth column against whom repressive measures are entirely justified. Some of the comments by Muslim leaders in recent days are not helpful in this regard, IMHO.
RE 33, Chris, i have to say you have more stamina than I, but i do plod through looking for an upside to the questions…
32- Not sure that he issued a press release with those remarks Doctor.
It is just yet another gaff from the king of the buffoons,
Nick Palmer I’d guess Cameron’s approval and disapproval ratings will both go up slightly, but I doubt if most people will have paid much attention to his comments, or anyone else’s - they’re interested in the alleged plot, everything else is seen as froth.
Well, that is clever spin and you are not even a journalist.
People are interested in the plot and the chaos and why it happened, but about ten thousand people have lost their holidays and tens of thousands have been less, or less directly, effected.
So a there is serious interest in BAA and the government’s unpreparedness for this threat .
And that is not froth, nor is the anguish. And they relate to someone speaking for them about the government not following through on its own plans and not doing nearly enough.
How do you square planned savings of two billion from the Home office by 2011 with a serious effort against terrorism? (And the government line about the 2 billion saved will be ‘used for front line security’ means its not in the Home Office so it is still a cut in the HO budget).
From a MP blog about the Home Office freeze: Sir Stephen Lander, former Director of MI5 and chairman of the newly formed Serious and Organised Crime Agency, stated that the organisation’s ability to tackle criminal networks could be “undermined” by Gordon Brown’s spending decision.
Only 35% of the population are cynical about the government’s use of The War Against Terror (TWAT) to manipulate public opinion.
So you can fool most of the people some of the time.
‘Unfreezing’ the Home Office budget was the comment that made Cameron’s tirade sound fake. No-one has any idea what the Home Office budget is or whether it had been frozen, from what figure to what figure or what difference it would make. It sounded like criticism for criticism’s sake. I thought Prescott sounded uncharacteristically measured.
RE 35, Fred, I agree that some Muslims comments have not been helpfull, though I would not describe them as leaders.
What we do need to do is to make sure it does not go that way though. I have not been impressed by Tony Blair’s, John Reid’s or George Bush’s choice of language either.
RE 39, Thanks Guido, I will have to remember that acronym, its fantastic. The War Against Terror (TWAT0, brilliant.
Almost as goog as the Central University of Nottingham and Trent. They only used that name for a short while for some reason.
41. ‘Self-appointed spokesmen’ might be a better description than ‘leaders’, I agree. But I think the distinction may be missed by the wider public - they can only relate to the talking heads they see, some of whom seem intent on entrenching their concerns rather than allaying them.
42. Ah! So that’s where Prescott got his education from…
I’m pretty certain that Blue2win is a Central office programme. So the idea of replying to it always strikes me as weird. Rather like people who talk to the speaking clock.
RE 43, Fred, I agree, which is why we should have been looking at the plurality of views in the Muslim community, rather than chanelling it through a single organisation which at best does not seem to represent most Muslims.
Re 44, DC, You might think that, but I couldn’t possibly comment.
42 - The story I’ve heard was similar, but about Newcastle Polytechnic becoming ‘City University of Newcastle upon Tyne’. Disappointingly, the fact that you have a Nottingham version suggests to me that it’s probably apocryphal. Still a good story, though.
RE 47, Cookie, it is such a good story, we will have to keep it alive regardless of its accuracy.
“And, as promised, for my first act as Prime Minister, I bring you the head of Osama Bin Laden…”
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/binladen.jpg
44 - Prescott went to Ruskin College, Oxford.
50 - Ruskin isn’t an Oxford University college by the way. Is it anywhere near Keeble (sic) though?
51 - Back from results day by the way and good luck to any other teachers on here, I’m sure we’re going to get more education related comments as the day wears on so remember, students and staff aren’t responsible for grading!
52 - Indubitably. Judging from your previous robust commentaries, I have a sense - which I know would be shared by a good friend who is also a school master - of your reaction to the revelation (from the BBC site):
“…..Almost a quarter of UK A-level entries were awarded the top grade this year, results published on Thursday show.
The proportion of entries given an A was 24.1%, up 1.3 on last year, said the Joint Council for Qualifications….”
11 My money’s on Mike S rather than Roger!
53. The great Ukrainian tractor factory rolls on…
33/36 Judging by the number of posters on here on the Yougov panel ( myself included ) , are there enough ordinary mmembers of the public on it to give meaningful results ?
39.Guido,
still laughing
42 Benedict- in probation- Probation and Community Services Orders were replaced by Community Rehabilitation and Punishment Orders- not as good as yours though.
Roger- I think Cameron strategically was right to hit Lab on hard issues (terror)- although he was talking more rubbish than the govt which is saying alot.
The govt is talking up terror, as to the security forces, the tories, the media. I find it all pathetic. If the govt is so concerned with protecting human life ban ciggies, get some clean water for Africa, stop invading countries.
Doubltess there are a few brainwashed idiots with downright bizarre aspirations (ie to become suicide bombers)- but in the great scheme of the world this is absolutely trivial (unless you are the one in the 10 million who gets blown up, but have never met a lottery winner, so can live with this).
My only sense of consolation in all this is the hope that future generations will marvel at our gross sense of stupidity, similar to how we now view the burning of witches.
53 - the major change which would aid trust of the system would be to split the setting and marking of exams into distinct bodies. QCA are equally to blame as they also need to be seen to improve standards, even as they are supposed to oversee them.
The use of dedicated professional markers to a greater degree rather than making do with whoever is available would also be a step forwards. I am constantly inundated by pleas from all exam boards (including courses which I have never taught) to mark their papers or practical exams. Every year we are advised about shortages of markers and it just gets worse.
Re 55, Fred, it reminds of a PMQ’s when Thatcher was PM. A conservative MP (can’t remember who) stood up and said words to the effect of:
“I would like to congadulate the Primeminister on the governments good work in getting umemployment figures down, could I ask when the government is going to do anything about umemployment?”
56 - I just do it for the money. Don’t you?
59 - What is your subject? I’d always assumed - albeit based on no evidence whatever - that you were on the ‘arts’ side. But your mention of practicals…
62 - probably because I refer now and again to literature and so on. Without giving too much of my identity away I’m a member of the English faculty. Rest assured that any spelling and grammar mistakes are usually (and hopefully) because of my rubbish eyesight and poor typing skills!
I suppose my comments on how figures are subjective also points to my not being on the science/maths side. Sometimes, when grading essays, I think it would be nice to teach a subject where things were more clear cut.
RE 58, Tyson, so instead of “doing porridge” they are “doing CRAPO”.
Priceless.
56: About 100,000 of them, yes.
Tyson, By the way I have thinking about your comment of a few days ago about how Michael Howard and others “believed” in what they were doing.
I think I would like politicians to believe a little less and think a little more.
One cause of grade inflation is market forces. School league tables mean schools shop around for the best exams, where the best exams are now defined as the ones easiest to pass. So exam board income goes up as standards come down.
Politicians and civil servants often now have a pseudo-religious faith in markets; they are in thrall to markets but they do not really understand how they work, or that they can sometimes have unfavourable outcomes which require intervention or regulation (rather than the straw man of abolition).
re 56. I’m sure that you will be re-assured Mark that I got banned from the YouGov panel. I discovered that by saying I was an unemployed Sun reading Labour voter who never watched Newsnight I got invited to take part in many more surveys. As an added bonus my opinions were worth almost double, because of the way they do the ratings, than if I’d said I was a Guardian-reading Lib Dem.
I published this on the site early last year and I continued to get invitations to take part. It was only when I mentioned this to YouGov’s Peter Kellner when we were sharing a cab, that I got booted out.
I think they still owe me about £36.
But the point is well made - how representative are the YouGov panels?
67 - I can vouch for that, there is a board in one of my subjects which is widely understood to be easier and which attracts schools with weaker students. That the results appear to be similar masks this, anyone just looking at figures would imagine that the two boards are equally difficult because they get similar results.
RE 67, JohnL a very good point indeed. The free market has its place, but requires some thought when implementing it.
15-Nick Palmer
‘Naturally this feeds cynicism about politicians and anything the government of the day says’
It was the current Home Secretary and not journalists, who publicly announced two months ago that the Home Office was not ‘fit for purpose’.
66- Benedict- I think you are right. The problem with this site in being essentially a “deconstructionalsit poster”- I find it difficult to stay on theme, and begin to desonstruct my own thoughts.
I too was thinking after about what is wrong with Cameron’s ambitious persuit of power. Provided he is pragmatic, sensible, banishing any crazy right wing, populist ideolgy from his being (ie flat tax, anti european), isn’t beholden to cliques, then so what.
Mike at 68- too clever for your own good- just couldn’t help yourself with Peter Kellner. What did you expect the outcome of that conversation was going to be??
Re 72, Tyson, but what if the falt tax turns out to be a good idea, leaving the poor paying less and a higher growth rate?
Re my 73, That should have been FLAT tax. Oops..
I agree that Cameron’s “terrorism” intervention was well-judged, pace Roger’s vapourings, and that DC’s numbers will probably rise, slightly, as a result.
The main reason they will rise, though, is simply because most people think the government hasn’t got a handle on the Muslim/terrorism nexus, and voters are casting around for an alternative. The government has only itself to blame for this - having, by its own confession, lost the plot on immgration, and turned the Home Office into something ‘not fit for purpose’.
Note also the stats in the poll. A large majority want passenger profiling, now. Yet will the PC elite in Labour have the guts to do this? Most people suspect not.
People wanna feel the firm hand of government. But whenever Labour wields it they end up slapping the law abiding majority in the face: ID cards, Religious Hatred Bills, etc.
The Conservatives should promise to get to grips with nutty imams, immigration, passenger profiling, etc. And they will reap votes.
67/69/70 - There are probably posters here who know more about this than me, but my impression is that the problem is even worse with universities. Given that there is very little independent moderation of grades there is a huge incentive to inflate marks, and certainly not to fail students (particularly part way through a course, where the university would directly lose income as a result).
The only reason that people want passenger profiling is that they can’t be bothered having proper security as they are inconvenienced by it. Theym wrongly think that it will give them no hassle and be safer. What it does is it gives less hassle to some people but make it more unsafe to travel. Muslims come in all varieties and the use of profiling will make it likely that terrorists change their appearance or use those who look ’safe’. They would be the happiest if it was introduced.
I have no wish to be put at greater risk and passenger profiling does that.
73 - Falt - “An old English measure of wheat in London containing 9 bushels”.
Is this falt tax something David Cameron’s not been telling us about?
“Sir Jeremy [Beecham] admitted that the [Labour] party was now struggling following the “cash for peerages” scandal, which has dramatically “shrunk” the party’s income stream.
“The donors have disappeared since all the publicity,” he said. “It is not so much the cash for peerages as the attention bestowed by sections of media on anybody who gives money to the party.”
Yes right, of course they didnt give the money to get an honour.
69 - This was the case when I was doing A Levels 40 years ago . Less able students at my school took their exams on this board and by doing so some achieved similar grades to more able students sitting for the harder boards .
65/68 Yes I know the panel as a whole is around 100,000 but of that how many are political activists , I would guess a higher percentage than that in the population at large .
Re SeanT, the problem with “profiling” is that some of the Muslims concerned are western converts, and some from the Midle East look a lot more European than most of us. Also see UKPauls post at 77.
As for the rest, you are right. We have had for a long time the means to lock up those who wish to incite violence. No new laws required, no mucking about etc. If we want to do it we can.
Then there are those “radical” immams who are not UK citizens. Well, the home Secratary has powers under the 1971 immigration act to throw them out if they presence is not conducive to the public good. I think saying that some people should be killed is in my definition of “not conducive to the public good”.
68. “But the point is well made - how representative are the YouGov panels?”
Getting our excuses in early, are we!
RE 80, Mark, which exam board you sat a paper for used to be important to some people, hence some went for the harder ones for more kudos.
80: I think there are about 2 or 3 thousand party members on the panel. No idea what the percentage is in the population as a whole, though a rough guess shouldn’t be too hard.
84 - I would guess around 600,000 so a little higher % on the panel but not too far out .
83 - Yes that was also true in my day , Benedict . Have you been helping in the byelection in Lewes today ?
Obviously the airport staff could use their discretion and do limited profiling without informing the public. They always have. I used to get stopped and searched every trip until I asked someone searching me why? “Because you have a camera round your neck” and after that I stopped carrying a camera round my neck and wasn’t searched again. Certain people don’t need to be seached. Families with children particularly.
87 Except that a terrorist may have targeted the family as an innocent mule and put explosives in a teddy bear for example .
Re profiling: flying around the US last year when I first arrived I was always being pulled out of line on boarding and searched again (often a third security check) as were most tourists/overseas business travellers. When later I was wearing clothes I’d bought in the US and wearing a stetson I boarded wih no final check - presumably my profile was now US resident.
Re 83, No mark I did not know there was one. I am on holiday tomorrow as well.
Off to sunny Weymouth.
51 - No, Ruskin is not part of the university - but Oxford Uni awards qualifications to Ruskin students and Ruskinites can join the Union (indeed a student of that college was president in the 60s, before Oxford reverted to being elitist due to Thatcher closing so many northern grammar schools)
Re profiling. Yes those terorists come in all shapes, sizes, ages, genders and ethnicities. Here, for instance, is a list of the 19 arrested suspects in the latest Liquid Bomb Plot:
ALI, Abdula, Ahmed
Date of birth (DOB): 10/10/1980
Address: Walthamstow, London, E17
ALI, Cossor
DOB: 04/12/1982
Address: Walthamstow, London, E17
ALI, Shazad, Khuram
DOB: 11/06/1979
Address: High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
HUSSAIN, Nabeel
DOB: 10/03/1984
Address: London, E4
HUSSAIN, Tanvir
DOB: 21/02/1981
Address: Leyton, London, E10
HUSSAIN, Umair
DOB: 09/10/1981
Address: London, E14
ISLAM, Umar
DOB: 23/04/1978
Address: High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
KAYANI, Waseem
DOB: 28/04/1977
Address: High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
KHAN, Assan, Abdullah
DOB: 24/10/1984
Address: London, E17
KHAN, Waheed, Arafat
DOB: 18/05/1981
Address: London, E17
KHATIB, Osman, Adam
DOB: 07/12/1986
Address: London, E17
PATEL, Abdul, Muneem
DOB: 17/04/1989
Address: London, E5
RAUF, Tayib
DOB: 26/04/1984
Address: Birmingham
SADDIQUE, Muhammed, Usman
DOB: 23/04/1982
Address: Walthamstow, London, E17
SARWAR, Assad
DOB: 24/05/1980
Address: High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire
SAVANT, Ibrahim
DOB: 19/12/1980
Address: London, E17
TARIQ, Amin, Asmin
DOB: 07/06/1983
Address: Walthamstow, London, E17
UDDIN, Shamin, Mohammed
DOB: 22/11/1970
Address: Stoke Newington, London
ZAMAN, Waheed
DOB: 27/05/1984
Address: London, E17
As we can see, quite a number of these people come from Wales, Argentina, Surinam and the Women’s Institute.
RE 92, SeanT, When someone converts to Islam, they change their name to an Islamic one.
We know of at least one of them that IS a convert, and his former surname was Whyte.
Further more, just because they may come from say The Midle East, does not mean you could pick them out from a crowd.
SeanT - I think that is the most ridiculous posting I have seen on PB.com. If you profile people with foreign names and arrest some of them then all the terrorists will change their names to Smith. I thought some of those arrested (but NOT charged with any offence to date) had “English” names - wasn’t one the son of a Conservative party agent who had changed his name from something like Sean Trumpington-Smythe to close to Ali Muhammed?
91 - Names mean nothing, at least one of those is white with the suggestion that more were not what your average joe would think of as muslim. Sammy Davis Jr was Jewish but how many people would have known that from looking at him?!
Passenger profiling only works if the terrorists don’t know it is happening. As soon as they do, they will pick out the palest skinned, cleanest shaved, most English-monikered terrorists they can (who presumably will draw less attention because security will be busy targeting all the innocent dark-skinned, bearded people called Umar).
92/94 - or Ali Muhammed may have planted the explosives in the hand luggage of his girlfriend Cynthia Smith .
One thing that makes me suspicious about the latest manifestation of TWAT is that we were told that the intelligence was being gathered over many months. If so, why did “they” wait for TB to be out of the country before letting rip? I would have thought that Our Glorious Leader would have wanted to be here to show how dynamic he was; although, maybe he did authorise the arrests and security clampdown to take place in his absence, in order to show how shambolic his Cabinet colleagues really are.
I fear that I must be becoming a bit of a Conspiracy Theorist. A big bit at that….
92 - Of actual terrorists the name Richard Reid springs to mind.
Get a grip, people. I’m not saying we should ‘arrest’ travellers cause of their names! ????
I’m saying that passenger profiling for terrorists could profitably start with the profile ‘young, male and Asian’. which fits 90-95% of the people in that list, for example. You could also add ‘comes from Walthamstow’!
To be serious. A whacking 55% of the British people want profiling. If it is the only way to keep our airports moving and economy functioning, and airplanes safe without cripping the tourist industry, then we must do it. Law abiding Muslims I think should accept this, in fact I think most of them would.
The actual measures should be dressed up as positive profiling - ruling out white families from Angelsey, for instance - and the whole thing must of course be nuanced with extra info on behaviour, luggage, background, travelling alone-ness, etc. Then it will work.
The sad and unpalatable fact (to some) is that Islamofacists terrorism is still, in the main, committed by Islamic terrorists of largely Asian background, plus a few sad and insecure converts. We should be glad that, apparently, al-Qaeada have had no luck converting masses of non-Asian/Muslim people - ‘cleanskins’ - to their cause. And we should use this to our advantage in profiling.
90. Benedict - not very sunny down Weymouth way today I’m afraid. More to the point, why on earth do you want to go on holiday there? we locals avoid the place like the plague, especially at this time of year.
In answer to the original question - yes of course they are exagerating the threat. Reid’s assertion that this is the most serious threat we have faced since WWII shows that.
There is a terrorist threat. We should take it seriously. But the electorate have enough sense to know that the Government are overplaying it and trying to use it to excuse unjustifiable attacks on our liberties.
Overall this Government has lost our trust on this issue and whatever they do now they will not regain it.
Silly opinion poll questions asking us whether we thinks Muslims are moderate or not doesn’t help much - clearly some Muslims are moderate and some are not!
It will be interesting to see how many of the people arrested are actually charged in the end. Or whether we find Saddam’s WMDs in the woods near Wycombe afterall.
75. “People wanna feel the firm hand of government. But whenever Labour wields it they end up slapping the law abiding majority in the face: ID cards, Religious Hatred Bills, etc.”
I don’t know. With ID cards, you sort of have to shudder about the government trying to manage a huge IT project. It’s not like they have a great record in this area.
100 Sean The argument is not that profiling will keep the airports moving , it obviously will by reducing searches and queues . It will though be a false sense of security because the determined terrorist will use the white Anglesey family as unsuspecting moles .
In celebration of today’s A-Level results, here is a question for next year’s Politics paper.
“Who has had more influence on Britain as a result of terrorism - Richard Reid or Dr John Reid? Could they by any chance be related?”
Craig Murray has some interesting views here:
http://www.craigmurray.co.uk/archives/2006/08/hitting_a_nerve.html
My daughters boyfriend (Spanish, olive complexion) was “profiled” by a yob in Aberystwyth last year after the July 7th bombs - called an “f***ing paki” and asked if he had a bomb, then their front door was kicked.
He (the Yob), eventually after 11 months, got 150 hours community service, for his activities.
104 - And also that one of the effects of making the asian community feel even more ‘got at’ is that it will make it steadily harder to get useful inteligence from that community.
benedict- what if the “flat tax” is a good idea?
Please- voodoo “what if” economics of the worst kind. Multi billionaire and a nurse paying the same tax rate.
You talked before about the difference between belief and thinking. Flat tax relies on a “belief” that the economic growth would offset the lower tax rate for high earners. Most “thinking” economists think this is madness (although you will get a few right wingers who sign upto this ludicrous idea).
Do you not think that if economics was this simple we would have adopted a flat tax years ago.
And by the way I bet you think we should abolish inheritance tax?
Why do the right get so absorbed on paying taxes? It is the fairest way to redistribute wealth, and pay for public services. I am a high top earner and gladly pay mine, and happily pay good whacks of capital gains and stamp duty periodically, and will happily pay my parents inheritance tax in due course (along with my siblings). It is what buys me into the community.
Flat rate proponents tend to be either right wing ideologues (Osbourne) or economic illiterates (Orange bookers)- I would not want either anywhere near the public purse strings.
I’m reasonably sure the government is exaggerating the threat. Every time Blair is under pressure, something else crops up. A new scare…
You get Ricin plots, Anthrax scares, scares over liquids (why are there different post passport control rules for those going to America?), brothers being arrested (and the police lying about who shot who), and Brazilians being shot dead (and police sources also lying about whether or not he had an oyster card).
Yet the one time we know there was a real threat - 7/7 last year - nothing was done to stop the tragedy.
The truth is that the government has increased the risk of terrorist attacks on us all with its dangerously warmongering policies. They can’t do anything to stop the threat, but THEY WANT TO BE SEEN TO BE DOING SOMETHING.
Come on Blair - why not analyse why Britain is now seen as part of the axis of evil by some Muslims? It’s your doing!
Blair lied to us repeatedly over the invasion of Iraq. He has cried wolf too often. How real are these threats? Is it just a way of getting the red top newspapers to support his authoritarian policies? Why should we believe Blair this time? Isn’t it dangerous we have reached the situation whereby we cannot believe such purported threats?
110. I agree of course that this government, and their appointees at the top of MI5 etc, are a bunch of lying, slimy, careerist, vain, hypocritical, chipolata-waggling pointyheads. We all know that now, even my Labour voting chums, after Iraq.
But I do not believe the entire police force is so Mandelson-esque, is so riddled with mendacious, inept, self-serving arrogance. Its impossible.
The Met was so freaked by their embarrassment at Forest Gate (though the murk there has yet to clear, and circumstantial evidence does not exonerate the bearded boys quite as much as some like to think), they would have trodden carefully thereafter.
I think the Liquid Bomb Plot was real. There may have been a hysterical reaction to it, but that’s partly our fault, in the media and the general public. I’m sure they were on to something very serious.
110. Blair has previous on this. In 2003 he had tanks and army roadblocks near my house in Windsor because of a proposed ‘plot’ to bring down a jet with a ground to air missile.
A few weeks later we invaded Iraq.
109 - inheritance tax is a tax on the financially illiterate wealthy. The financially literate wealthy do not pay inheritance tax, but rather hand over somewhat smaller sums of money to financial advisers, lawyers and insurance companies.
Re 100 SeanT, Profiling in terms of looking at the sort of passenger and demeanor you are looking for is useful. Doing it based on your criteria is a recipe for seeing planes fall out of the sky.
An Israeli security agent pointed out that you can tell the suicide bomber by his/her demeanor.
RE 101, Fred, Why Weymouth? Because the Missus said so. I woudl have preferred Beirut, (at time of booking) so it seems a good call right now. I was planning on going to the tank museum amoungst other things.
Fancy a beer?
Re 109, Tyson, can I assume you don’t care for flat taxes then?
09 - I am laughing like a drain at that. Really does reveal how dim a lot of rightists are. They have come up with this mentalist ideology and then adopt the approach of “well you never know it might work, after all it stems from my mad beliefs so it must be inherently good”. Much like the left of yesteryear.
09 - Tyson, in riposte you may get the point that certain Eastern European countries, emerging from communist systems and with completely different circumstances to Britain, have adopted flat tax regimes. As if that is an argument.
Re 116 Bradley, how are the IPO’s going?
I note you don’t seem to have voted today. Are you ill?
118 - if you knew anything about the economy you’d know IPOs are certainly NOT going.
Flat tax is a good idea. Just ask the Lebanese who owned the Cornish tin mines. They knew a thing or two.
Before we get too excited about the idea that this is all made up by tortured prisoners, it’s worth pointing out that the people caught following the July 21st attempts will be on trial soon. It’s not all made up…
Re 119, Sorry Bradders, I thought your firm specialised in it thats all. Did I hit a nerve?
“I think the Liquid Bomb Plot was real. There may have been a hysterical reaction to it, but that’s partly our fault, in the media and the general public. I’m sure they were on to something very serious.”
Then why aren’t people being charged with conspiracy?
Re Boundary Commission - see below a further link re the Labour Party plan to take legal action to prevent the abolition of the Normanton constituency.
I’m amazed that nobody seems to be taking any notice of this because it could well have a significant impact on the result of the next general election. Of course one seat is trivial but the point is that the legal action could cause a lengthy delay before the Boundary Commission can issue their final report.
This article suggests a delay of one year. If the report is not now issued till late 2007 then it would not become law till well into 2008. So if Brown gets in by late 2007 he could then call a snap election under the old boundaries.
If this were to happen and Labour got a narrow majority solely because the old boundaries were used it would surely have to go down as one of the most disgraceful political acts ever.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=400015&in_page_id=1770
RE 123, Mike L, i fail to be surprised at this. perhaps I am being too glum.
121 - no you didn’t hit a nerve!
Now look matey don’t come out with all this flat tax stuff in future, I may have been very rude to you about your whole Cornish tin mines stuff and the quality of your blog, but to be fair your views aren’t normally offensive. Come on, we all know “I am in favour of flat tax” is code for “I am stark raving mad”.
23 - OH COME ON. Do you really think Labour is the first party to do that kind of thing???????????????????????? The Tories have done loads of their own little wrangles like that, particularly when in power.
Sheesh.
26 - Nice to see that you’re on the side of those who abuse power.
122. As I understand it, the UK police had to swoop a week or so too soon - because the Pakistanis has already arrested the main man, and the Yanks were getting jumpy. There was a fear the conspirators would either skedaddle, or do a quick bomb anyway.
Ideally, another week would have unearthed everything needed to indict these people for conspiracy - plane tickets, stuff for bombs, etc. As things happened, we now have to go for circumstantial evidence - guns in woods, dodgy bank accounts, and so forth. It seems the police are finding stuff like this - and we must hope they continue to do so.
C’mon chaps, give the police and MI5 a break. Blair and his New Labour cohorts might be lying skunks, and the chief of the Met might be a politically correct loonytoon, but the average policeman/intelligence officer is a hardworking honest patriotic dude working for money most of us would find risible, and dealing with hours, bureaucracy, criticism, that many of us would find ununbearable. Cut them some slack.
126. Really? Perhaps you could give an example.
The only previous similar behaviour I am aware of was Harold Wilson when he delayed implementation of boundary changes in 1969.
129 - And they tried to appeal to Lord Justice Cocklecarrot’s better nature in 1983. Of course, they failed.
RE 125, So Bradley how does making the tax system simpler grab you?
[128] Hmm… this sounds like ex post facto bull**it. I get this “security sources” crud from time to time, and since it is usually made up by some self dramatising wan*ker I don’t give it much attention- so I am deeply suspicious of your sources, SeanT.
The Police are doing fine, but I just don’t buy the “if only we had another week, then we would have found a REAL conspiracy”- especially when that ex-drunk, ex-Commie, ex friend of war criminals, Reid is calling the shots.
128 - But there was a report (from where? from who?) that said they had already bought the plane tickets. Now it seems that they were about to. Surely it is not beyond the wit of man to alert the police if anyone from a very long list buys a plane ticket.
110 - It’s not “the biggest threat since WWII” but Islamic terrorism certainly is a real threat to us. Not only did 7/7 actually happen, but there have been several frustrated attacks, such as 21/7, and Richard Reid’s attempt to blow up a plane.
Re 134, Sean, Yes there is a threat from terrorsim, but you are still oh so much more likely to be run over by a car.
[133] One rumnour is that several of the guys arrested did not even have passports, “but they had applied for them”- oh Pur-lease!
That’s true, but not necessarily a consolation.
Yes the terror threat is exaggerated. Read this report and watch the NBC video included. Ten out of ten USA terror threats coincided with the need to bury bad news.
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/articles/august2006/150806thenexus.htm
John Reid claims that thirteen plots have been foiled. So where are the thirteen groups of terrorists? What charges have been brought against them? When will we see them in court.
The UK and British government lied over Iraq. Over 100,000 people died for their lies. Give ONE good reason why we should believe they are not still lying?
George Bush has stated catching Bin Laden “is not a priority.”
The videos are fake. Read what I wrote on this two threads down.
The FBI do not even want him for 9/11.
The Bin Ladens have a long business history with the Bushes. Many Americans have been led to believe Saddam was some way involved in 9/11.
The Bin Ladens were flown out of USA immediately after 9/11 and Bush has admitted that the Bin Laden video in November 2004 helped him win the last election.
Robin Cook stated that Al-Qaeda was a computer file created by the CIA. Within weeks Cook was dead.
Our biggest threat lays in those that have brought great danger to our nation. The intelligence services warned of an Iraq terror backlash, so did many MPs such as Kenneth Clarke.
The 7/7 confessional tape, stated USA and UK foreign policy as the motivation. Blair lied when he tried to claim 7/7 had absolutely nothing to do with Iraq. Only a complete fool would believe him. He is deluded and has a narcisistic personality disorder in my view and God help us all if he should join Bush for another war in Iran.
The war on terror is seen as a war on Muslims ansd some of them are so angered we are seeing the backlash predicted.
So to sum up it is clear all the terror is either fabricated or it has been generated by Bush and Blair. They want terror for their own purposes. The plan for global domination was set out before
Bush was even elected. Visit the Plan for a New American Century website and read the report Rebuilding America’s Defenses, co-authoured by Paul Wolfowitz.
RE 137, Sean Fear, Yes it is no consolation, but it is hardley World War II either, which is the point, and why some people think it might have been hyped just a smidgen.
David Icke has just posted on this site.
!40, Sean, to be fair you and I both know that lizards are the real threat
109: “It is the fairest way to redistribute wealth, and pay for public services”
That’s precisely what is wrong with all current thinking behind tax. It has - or should have - only one purpose; to pay for government.
“Redistribution of wealth” via taxes is a perversion of their purpose and nothing more than theft. To take from some and give to others.
As for “Flat tax relies on a “belief” that the economic growth would offset the lower tax rate for high earners. Most “thinking” economists think this is madness (although you will get a few right wingers who sign upto this ludicrous idea)”
It is now 25 years since Reaganomics conclusively proved ( ttp://www.stephenpollard.net/) the contention that lower taxes lead to higher growth and higher tax take, yet still there are those who wish to use the tax system to ‘punish’ rather than pay for government.
Sean Fear, do some research, look at the sources I refer to. Use your initiative as an intelligent human being, put away your patriotic blinkers. Then use rational argument based on fact rather than insults based on your ignorance.
I was being complimentary.
144 - I just hope that the House of Windsor have finally severed their remaining links with the Cali Cartel.
136 - Well if they didn’t yet have their passports there’s no way the threat could have been ‘imminent’!
It’s a bit of a shame to click on here at the end of a day and see that the quality of posting has plummeted so.
At least Mike’s leaders are still a good read.
One question though, to Tyson. You say: “I am a high top earner” and yet you’ve spent almost two weeks of solid time posting on the internet. Wha