Sean Fear’s local election commentary
August 18th, 2006
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How London Voted on May 5th
I have now finished working out how each of the new constituencies voted in May’s local elections. This is a useful exercise, as the new boundaries will almost certainly be in force at the time of the next election. As each of the three main parties contested the vast majority of London’s council seats, it is quite easy to work out the results by constituency. In each case, I have taken the highest vote achieved by each party’s candidate in each ward.
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Had these results been repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would have won 35 seats (a gain of 14), Labour 28 (a loss of 16) , the Liberal Democrats 9 (a gain of 2), and Others 1 (Respect would have lost Bethnal Green and Bow, but freakishly, Residents would have won Upminster and Hornchurch).
The mean vote share won by the parties across all 73 constituencies was Conservative 34.7%, Labour 28.6%, Liberal Democrat 20.5%, and Others 16.4%.
There are striking disparities in party support across London. Labour’s support ranged from 5% in Sutton and Cheam to 50% in Camberwell and Peckham. Liberal Democrat support ranged from 1% in Dagenham and Rainham to 48% in Hornsey and Wood Green. Conservative support ranged from 9% in Islington North to 67% in Beckenham.
Comparing the position with 1992, Conservative support remains rock-solid in outer suburbia. In Chipping Barnet, they led Labour by 24%; in Ilford North by 23%; in Uxbridge & South Ruislip by 30%. Conservative support is now almost back to its 1992 level in Metroland, with leads of 15% over Labour in Harrow East, and Finchley, and smaller leads in Harrow West, Brent North (both on much less favourable boundaries than in 1992) , Hendon and Ealing North. Conservative support has strengthened in parts of Inner London, leading Labour by 19% in Westminster North, and 4% in Hammersmith, for example.
But Conservative support has collapsed in much of inner suburbia – as low as 14% in Streatham, and just 12% in Hornsey and Wood Green (over 25% down on 1992), and far behind Labour now in seats like Edmonton, Mitcham and Morden, and Croydon North.
By contrast, inner suburbia has seen the strongest improvement in Labour’s position (with the exceptions of Lewisham East and Lewisham West & Penge, and Hornsey and Wood Green). The East End remains Labour’s strongest area (but with strong challenges now from Respect in Newham and Tower Hamlets, the Green Party in Hackney, and the British National Party in Barking and Dagenham). Labour support has now fallen back in outer suburbia to its level of 1992, and is in sharp decline in Metroland.
The Liberal Democrats have gained few votes since 1992, but have targeted very effectively. Back in 1992, they only had one London MP, Simon Hughes. On these results, they would have lost two seats to the Conservatives (Sutton and Cheam, Richmond Park) but gained four from Labour (Islington South, both Lewishams, and Hampstead and Kilburn, where Labour fell into a poor third place).
The Greens polled well across Leftward-leaning constituencies. In Deptford, they won 26%, of the vote, 24% in Hackney North, 20% in Islington North, and 18% in Islington North. Their vote share reached 12% or more in 16 constituencies.
Respect polled well in Tower Hamlets and Newham, and a high profile candidate may succeed in holding Bethnal Green and Bow for them. Margaret Hodge is certainly in trouble in Barking, where the BNP won 23% of the vote, despite not contesting half the wards (and UKIP won a further 14%). Residents polled strongly in Havering and Brentford & Isleworth, and Save Chase Farm won a remarkable 26% to come second in Enfield North.
Last night saw just three by-elections:-
Enfield LBC: Turkey Street – Conservative 877, Labour 874, UKIP 174, Save Chase Farm 133, Lib Dem 77, Green 51. Conservative Hold. This was a rare excellent performance by Labour in a London by-election. Clearly, voters do not approve of councillors who resign their seats just three months after being elected, and UKIP also hurt the Conservatives. The collapse in support for Save Chase Farm (who won 1186 votes last time) suggests their vote in May was a flash in the pan.
Caradon DC: St. Cleer and St. Neotts: Lib Dem 519, Conservative 363. Lib Dem hold.
Highlands SUA: Inverness. Lib Dem 514, Independent 263, SNP 212, Labour 108, Conservative 49, Independent 26. Lib Dem gain from Independent.
I shall e-mail my constituency analysis to anyone who wants it.
Sean Fear is a London Tory activist and regular contributor to PBC.
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Sean,
I would very much like to see your constituency analysis. Please email to jeffrandall69@hotmail.com.
Many thanks.
Very interesting article Sean and I’m sure we all thank you for the great deal of hard work you’ve clearly put into it.
Very encouraging results in the ‘Metroland’ area and hopefully that bodes well for us in future national elections. Certainly an improved local council base should help with campaigns. Although obviously local results can’t be extrapolated to general elections exactly.
By-Election Results: Thursday 17th August 2006.
Lewes DC, Ouse Valley and Ringmer
LD Peter Gardiner 715 (43.7; +21.6), Con 521 (31.8; +6.5), Seagulls 359 (21.9; +21.9), Lab 41 (2.5; -10.7) [Green (0.0; -7.0)] [Ind (0.0; -32.4)].
Majority 194. Turnout 33.4%. LD gain from Ind. Last fought 2003.
By-Election Results: Thursday 10th August 2006.
Caradon DC, St Cleer and St Neot
LD Bob Emuss 519 (58.8; +23.3), Con 363 (41.2; +16.0), [Ind (0.0; -39.3)].
Majority 156. Turnout 24.6%. LD hold. Last fought 2003.
Enfield LBC, Turkey Street
Con 877 (40.1; -0.2), Lab 874 (40.0; +11.3), UKIP 174 (8.0; +8.0), Save Chase Farm 133 (6.1; +6.1), LD David Peters 77 (3.5; +3.5), Green 51 (2.3; +2.3), [Ind (0.0; -30.0)].
Majority 3. Turnout 24.7%. Con hold. Last fought 2006.
Highland Council UA, Lochardil
LD David Henderson 514 (43.9; +43.9), Ind 263 (22.4; -32.4), SNP 212 (18.1; +18.1), Lab 108 (9.2; -7.0), Con 49 (4.2; +4.2), Ind 26 (2.2; -52.6).
Majority 251. Turnout 53.9%. LD gain from Ind. Last fought 2003.
I would like to echo both sentiments above.
Sean would it be possible to e-mail this document at jonwilson397@hotmail.com
Thanks,
Jonathan
Thanks for the kind words. I did in fact write this last Friday, although there is a slightly updated version to take account of the Lewes result.
Sean - this polarisation of inner and outer London in terms of political support surely reflects the growing ethnic division of the city, doesn’t it?
Partly, I think, Ferdinand. I think in the prosperous parts of North West London (Metroland) there is no real ethnic division in terms of voting patterns. And in parts of Inner London, a growing non-white population is offset, in voting terms, by the impact of gentrification.
But I think it’s a very big factor in the shift in voting patterns in seats like Ilford South, Edmonton, Croydon North etc. over the past 15 years.
Thanks Sean for an interesting article. Would like to look at the data behind it - could you send to: jonesianr AT yahoo . co. uk
cheers
Sean - a very interesting analysis as usual. Could you please email your (presumably spreadsheet) to lennon at sargil dot co dot uk. Much appreciated.
One comment - you appear to have repeated Islington North in the paragraph on the Green party - I presume you mean South the second time around, but perhaps an update for clarification would be helpful. No criticism intended of course
Thanks for spotting the typo. You are quite correct, that it is Islington South.
Thanks Sean - an interesting analysis. But I think you are somewhat overegging the Tories position as ‘rock solid’ in outer Suburbia. It’s largely true in NW and SE outer London, but patchy at least elsewhere. I’m afraid I haven’t got the new boundaries - but here are a representative selection of results from last year’s general election compared with 1992. I’m never hugely convinced by extrapolating from local to national elections as differential turnout is a much more significant factor in low turnout elections (but it does give some sense of trends)
In 1992 the Conservatives won a majority of all London seats and would need to do so again if they are to win a General Election.
1992 2005
Dagenham
Con 36.8% 25.4%
Lab 51.7% 50.1%
Lib 11.5% 10.1%
Eltham
Con 44.0 34.3
Lab 40.1 43.6
Lib 15.5 16.0
Brent East
Con 36.6 10.3
Lab 52.8 38.8
Lib 8.9 47.5
Brent North
Con 57.5 33.0
Lab 30.3 48.8
Lib 10.6 15.9
Hampstead and Highgate
Con 40.7 28.5
Lab 46.2 38.3
Lib 11.1 27.0
Croydon North
Con 44.7 22.0
Lab 44.4 53.7
Lib 10.5 17.3
Ealing North
Con 51.4 29.9
Lab 35.8 45.0
Lib 10.8 19.7
Hammersmith and Fulham
Con 51.7 45.4
Lab 38.7 35.3
Lib 8.3 14.4
Edmonton
Con 46.2 29.9
Lab 45.1 53.2
Lib 8.2 12.0
Hackney South
Con 29.0 14.0
Lab 53.4 52.9
Lib 14.9 21.2
Hornsey and Wood Green
Con 39.1 12.7
Lab 48.4 38.3
Lib 10.0 43.3
Harrow East
Con 52.9 36.8
Lab 33.8 46.1
Lib 10.9 15.3
Romford
Con 57.1 59.1
Lab 28.4 27.3
Lib 12.4 8.4
Hayes and Harlington
Con 44.9 25.2
Lab 44.8 58.7
Lib 10.3 9.8
Brentford and Isleworth
Con 45.7 30.3
Lab 42.7 39.8
Lib 10.1 22.8
Kingston and Surbiton
Con 53.1 33.0
Lab 19.6 13.2
Lib 26.0 51.1
Dulwich and West Norwood
Con 42.8 21.9
Lab 46.3 45.4
Lib 9.8 24.4
Streatham
Con 39.4 17.8
Lab 49.4 46.7
Lib 10.0 28.3
Lewisham West
Con 42.9 20.1
Lab 47.0 52.0
Lib 9.9 20.9
Ilford South
Con 48.9 27.2
Lab 42.1 48.9
Lib 10.4 20.5
Walthamstow
Con 36.9 18.2
Lab 44.3 50.3
Lib 15.6 27.1
Sutton and Cheam
Con 55.1 40.4
Lab 10.0 11.8
Lib 33.8 47.1
The Tory vote as Sean says has haemoraged in the inner suburban seats - Dulwich, Streatham etc, but also in SW and West London and in the outer London ‘C2′ seats - Dagenham, Ilford etc (with the notable exception of Romford)
I think the Tories face two significant challenges in London. To win back the educated middle classes in South West and West London and the skilled working class vote who appear now tempted by various extrmeists - BNP, Respect, UKIP etc.
I agree you can’t extrapolate directly, although I think the local results do confirm the trend towards the Tories since 2002. I think it’s most unlikely that some of my projected results would ever come to pass (the Conservatives will never win Tooting by 17% or Westminster North by 19% in a general election; conversely, a Residents’ Association candidate will never win Upminster and Hornchurch).
In this year’s local elections, the Conservatives polled rather well in both South West, and West, London, and that’s what I’ve based my commentary on.
One question, why is it the case that the biggest party in London at a General Election tends to win, surely its about all voters in the Country being asked who the want to govern them?
7. Sean FYI the simple correlation between the ‘non-white’ population share in the 2001 census and the Conservative vote share in the 2005 GE across the London seats is -0.7, with the Labour vote share 0.7. There are a few outliers, like Brent North and Harrow East at one end and Dagenham at the other, but otherwise this is a fairly clear picture.
13. It contains 73 seats, distinct areas of strength for all three main parties, and a large number of marginal seats.
Can I be e-mailed the analysis Sean, my e-mail address is martinwhelton@aol.com
In your analysis you say the Lib Dems would have gained both Lewisham’s from Labour - there are three seats in Lewisham including Lewisham Deptford.
I take it you intend to refer to both Lewisham East and Lewisham West & Penge.
Chris
16. I’ll try, but I have problems with AOL addresses. 17. Yes, that’s correct.
Two weeks in a row Lib Dems are the only party to gain seats in local council by-elections. You know, I’m starting to think they are an absolute 100% guaranteed predictor of future political fortunes
Sean
Any chance you could email to markloveday@tanfieldchambers.co.uk please?
Thanks
Mark Loveday (Cllr LBH&F)
Sean,
Could you try to email it to me at Intobs211@aol.com, please?
Much appreciated and thanks for all your work.
Hi Sean
I’d love a copy too - at alrog07@yahoo.com
Many thanks
Sean
I would very much appreciate your spreadsheet of the results please.
Email: brianw.jarvis@ntlworld.com
Brian Jarvis
Please may i get the email too sedgleyconservatives@yahoo.co.uk
12. On extrapolation, are there any comparable figures for the 2002 elections and how they compared to the 2001 and 2005 generals? Although it’s a pretty crude technique, it might give some pointers as to possible outcomes (beyond the obvious e.g. Labour marginals are vulnerable to a swing against etc.).
25 The 2002 ward boundaries often don’t coincide with the present boundaries. I think that the seats we gained in London in 2005 would have all shown clear Conservative leads at local level in 2002. But there were places where the Conservatives were clearly in the lead in 2002 which they didn’t gain in 2005.
Think I might as well jump in here too and ask for a copy please Sean. My email address is andrew_saywell@hotmail.com
I’m leaving the office now, so anyone else will have to wait till Monday for a copy.
26 - Hi Sean , I have done the same analysis although I used average vote per candidate and the results broadly agree though Labour held Lewisham East by 8 votes on my calculations . I would appreciate for comparison a copy of your spreadsheet to me on markseniorcoins@msn.com and will return the favour if you wish . My spreadsheets cover not just London .
29 - Mark - would you be happy to email your spreadsheet(s) me. I fear that I can offer nothing in return however… would be much appreciated though. (Address as above at post 9)
Yes, please Sean. welshliberaldemocrat@yahoo.co.uk
Sean
Good article.
could you send the spreadsheets to peter@liberalreview.com please
I’d also be interested to see your analysis. My address is arnric@hotmail.com
30 Hi Lennon - will do .
[12] I would’ve thought a 19% Tory lead at the next General in Westminster North - unless they pick a completely doolalley candidate - is extremely plausible. To the extent that the new housing in this seat is being occupied by voters (I suspect much of it isn’t) they are Tory voters.
Excellent report as usual Sean. Would like to see the analysis if poss too… samuelbestshaw AT aol.com - if you have problems with aol please try samuelbestshaw AT yahoo.co.uk.
Local elections are never a very good pointer to general elections due to hugely differential turnout. However, the size of the Green vote in the Islington seats - which hurt the Lib Dems in the locals - is very significant and squeezable come the general election. Whether the LDs can hold together the unusual coalition of supporters they have of disgruntled ex-Nu Labourites, old style Tory wets, liberals, social democrats and Trots is another matter.
The silly season continues, and the even sillier (conference) season approaches. It will be interesting to see if Cameron and Campbell can get conference support for the new policies. If the sandalled and bearded brigade oppose the tax reforms, it may just be time to resign my membership (but not withhold my support).
36 - sorry mistake above - should read…
“It will be interesting to see if Cameron can get conference support for the new rhetoric and Campbell for the new policies.”
38. Thanks, but odds are very tight, aren’t they?
>>
Surely PeeBees can’t have discovered social lives, can they? This is as quiet as it was in the Old Days!
40 - social life - yes, they’re all out canvassing!
I’m still here! I don’t have a social life - I have a baby. But I am off to Madrid tomorrow to talk about Picasso, on BBC75 or something.
Sunshine and art and no babies screaming. Fab.
Ditto - no social life. Children aged 5 and 3 have put paid to that. Off to the lovely Pembrokeshire coast tomorrow to relax. No internet. No PB. No newspapers if I can avoid them. Hope it will be more relaxing and enjoyable than recent trip to Finland and Estonia.
43 - snap! Well, nearly 3 and nearly 5. And I’ve had my holiday for the year already
Okay, so I’m the one sad single wanker - with no kids as an excuse - playing on the interweb on a Friday night, am I? And blogging about the next Lib Dem election - http://oxfordliberal.blogspot.com/ - though I don’t imagine there will be a betting market…
45
Matthew Taylor - will surely go for it. A rather sad sidelined character - he was the future once. Still early forties - but 20 years as an MP - and probably not sure what seat he is standing for next time. Sacked by CK, not put on front bench by MC, lost deputy leadership… does not bode well but must be front runner.
Lembit (again) - you are choking. Let him stick to panel games and the Sky at Night.
David Heath - good one, but won’t win.
Malcolm Bruce - too old and a past it.
Paddy - won’t run
36 - Sam, I know you’ve been in the party a long time, and it’s your right to quit whenever you wish… but I hope you won’t. One less economic liberal in the party won’t help make the arguments.
46 - agree with the assessment - who’s your tip?
Hi,
Would it be possible to send a copy of the document to anthony.moore ‘at’ email.com
Thanks!
Well done to Pete for winning Big Brother!
Who wins next year: Lembit Opik??!
” Margaret Hodge is certainly in trouble in Barking, where the BNP won 23% of the vote, despite not contesting half the wards (and UKIP won a further 14%).”
I read that Hodge can actually stand down at the next election and Stephen Twigg would be her favourite choice to replace her, but local councillors are in a “nothing proposed by Hodge” mood.
I would like to have a copy of your excellent anylysis too.
46. Re Taylor. The poor guy even had his affair relegated to page 20 of the News of the Screws: less attention than Clare Short’s love life!
47 - 48 - probably won’t quit. Could not vote for another party anyway.
Think Taylor will win. Done a fair bit of rubber chicken work in his time. Would not be surprised if John Hemming ran. Also may see a candidate from the left - Evan? Phil Willis?
I cannot see any of the female MPs going for it. Of course it does not have to be an MP. How about Kishwer Faulkner? Or Liz Lynne? Who knows, even Claire Rayner or Sandi Toksvig?
51 - which affair was that? Did I miss something?
53 - Ah yes. A bit of google and Guido dishes the dirt. No surprises.
How about Julia Neuberger for LD President?
51. ops. I forgot to add the email address: anpa82@ inwind.it
54. yes, that one. Pretty boring stuffs.
Btw, did I miss anything in this last 2 weeks?
I was able to look at papers’ front pages, so I got the main news…and even some not so main like the dogs of Isle of Wight MP attacking some other animals.
34 - Thanks Mark - will look at over the weekend if it rains and thus I’m not at the Oval. Apologies for the delay - have been having a social life this evening… (wonders what getting a wife does for you, she keeps organising parties to go to!)
A fascinating analysis, Sean; thanks for all your work. I will be interested to see if there are any particularly tight contests, or unusual second places.
Please could you e-mail your analysis to me at augustuscarp at gmail.com?
Thanks
the Inverness election result was last week - obviously news is slow getting out of the Highlands.
Sean - I’d also love a copy to cllrandyjennings@dsl.pipex.com as it may save me some time in my own compilations
Thanks
Andy
Hi Sean, I would also like a copy of your work
lharris999@hotmail.com
is it possible for you to upload it onto a website?
Thanks
Lloyd
Hi Sean,
Could you please email me the further constituency details? james_schneider@hotmail.co.uk
Many thanks,
James
And to me, if you could: juxon33@yahoo.co.uk
Many thanks, Sean, and congratulations on your incisive analysis.
Hi Sean,
I would love to read your consituency analysis. I can be contacted at: ukfuture@yahoo.co.uk
Thanks in advance,
James M
45 - Okay, so I’m the one sad single wanker - with no kids as an excuse - playing on the interweb on a Friday night, am I?
I was reading but not posting…
45.”Okay, so I’m the one sad single wanker ”
why should Libdems always let us know their sexual habits?!
I’ll e-mail everyone who hasn’t yet received a copy when I get back to the office on Monday.
Innocent Abroad - Labour would probably have had a lead of c.5% in Westminster North in 2005. While I think a Tory win is more likely than not at the next election, I’d be amazed if it were anything like 19%.
Add me to the long list Sean, book_value@hotmail.co.uk. Many thanks in advance.
35. “To the extent that the new housing in this seat is being occupied by voters (I suspect much of it isn’t) they are Tory voters. ”
Innocent, I read Shirley Porter in back in UK, but I haven’t thought she was doing things so faster!
66. Sean, Anthony Wells’ figures gave Westminster North a 9%majority for Labour in 2005. Do you think it’s a bit exaggerated?
Thank you Sean and welcome back Andrea; adding to the voices of sanity, which have been sadly swamped recently.
69. Thanks for the welcome, pobedonoscev
Sean,
Excellent & very interesting analysis once again. Would be very grateful if you are able to email a copy to electiongame@yahoo.co.uk - many thanks.