Mori: 56% want Blair out by the end of the year
August 20th, 2006
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Brown has 7% lead on Cameron on being a “capable PM”
The Sunday Times this morning features a Mori poll on immigration and leader ratings but without a voting intention question and without using the measures other pollsters employ to ensure that their samples are politically representative.
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The most significant finding is that 47% of those surveyed think that Tony Blair should go immediately with 56% wanting him out before the end of the year. This is by far the highest rating on this question in any opinion poll and comes only a few days before the Prime Minister returns from his summer holiday.
To the question “Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister –Gordon Brown, David Cameron or Menzies Campbell?” these were the shares with changes on March when the question was asked last time using a similar methodology. Brown 31 (-4): Cameron 24 (-2): Campbell 11 (+2)
Regular visitors will know that whenever Mori produce a poll, whatever it is saying, I always give a health warning about the firm’s methodology.
For in all phone surveys there is a proven tendency to grossly over represent Labour because, for whatever reason, party supporters are much more likely to take part in surveys than supporters of other parties.
Thus ICM and Populus find that on average the number of poll respondents saying they voted Labour at the last election is about quarter more than actually did so and make adjustments for sample distortion. Mori don’t and their figures should be treated accordingly.
Normally with voting intention polls, which this isn’t, Mori filters its results by only including those who say they are “certain to vote” in its headline figures. So even that control does not apply here.
To give an idea of the scale of potential distortion a Mori poll for the FT just four days before the May 2005 General Election reported a Labour lead of 15%. The turnout filter cut that back to 10%. At the election Labour’s margin was 3%. Mori’s final election poll employed different methodologies and so cannot be compared.
Within the next week or so we should see the August surveys from ICM and YouGov - both of which employ robust techniques to avoid sample bias. Wait for them and ignore Mori.
In the betting on Blair’s departure the 2006 price is 10/3 with current odds of 5.4/1 on a final quarter departure.
Mike Smithson
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Digby Jones did a program on Channel 4 where he discussed Polish immigration. He thought it unreservedly good for Britain. He said it saved every British tax payer £600 a year and interest rates were half a percent lower than they would be without it. The immigrants are nearly all young and motivated who are apparently taking the slack out of the market who only stay if they get a job.
Another bad poll for Cameron. His numbers are falling badly and of course Blair. It looks like every-one’s looking forward to an unspun Brown
PS. What happened to the Blandinax(??) survey of Party leaders?
As ever PBC taking the anti-Brown position. But that anti-Blair figure is a real shocker. He cannot carry on much longer. So it will not be long before Gordon is driving up the Mall to see the Queen. What a nice thought on this damp Sunday morning.
3 Flash, is there ANYTHING that you don’t like about Gordon Brown?
Gladstone. There is actually. I wish that he had a bit more confidence about his position and had moved years ago to pull down the Blair house of cards. To my mind he is far too cautious.
I wish, also, that he was a bit more bold about the wealth redistribution strategy that he has been following since 1997. This has made a major difference to the most vulnerable in society and is something that Labour can be really proud of. I know that Gordon has a passion about this yet he is never ready to talk about it in public.
1 - Roger, Ming comes out on top in the “substance over spin” category. That will please Darren.
On a related note, the Rt Hon David Cameron, JCB, BT, BSkyB, BP, MP has decided to rebrand his party - it is to be renamed the McTory Party.
re 2. Roger. YouGov has not sent me the latest BrandIndex figures on the party leaders but I am hoping to get something early next week. I am aware of our little argument earlier in the week.
What we really need now is a poll which measures Reid against Brown in some form. I think that Mori and the Sunday Times wasted an enormous opportunity in not including that within their last survey.
5 - Flash, Tax Credits are a great example of Gordon’s largesse. Complicated, unwieldy, inefficient and wasteful. OTOH they do enable the recipients to feel greatful to Gordon for his benefficience, therby ensuring he gets the “credit”.
Comparing The next three leaders from the last 3 polls;
Dec-Mar-Aug
Brown 31 35 31
Cameron 27 26 24
Campbell 13 09 11
Camerons graph is moving in the wrong direction. That less people think he would make the best PM than thought so in December before his PR offensive and after he’d only been there a month surely says something. I must say that the more I see of him the less I see to admire.
At first not being Howard was enough. But now I can’t see or read anything about him without feeling I’m watching a fake invented by a PR company to do whatever research tells them their target market wants.
2,7 - you could go to pollingreport
I think Roger is right… everything about Cameron feels “phoney” as Salinger would have it. What I don’t know is whether the public at large is starting to feel that, or just Conservative party opponents.
Mike. Take a look at Anthony Wells’ site. I saw an interesting headline on Reid which is as you suggest.
Tabman. A reasonable poll for Ming and he was very good on radio 5 this morning explaining why Blairs ignoring of the UN cost both lives and destruction in Lebanon. I must say I like his instincts a lot.
11 - Jon his opponents aren’t starting to feel it they’ve been saying the same thing over and over again ever sinve DC was elected.
“It looks like every-one’s looking forward to an unspun Brown”
Presumably your not counting the 41% of respondents who thought it was fair to say he was more about spin than substance. Given this is supposedly his great selling point it’s hardly that encouraging.
11 - Jon, to a certain extent the public’s opinion of him will be “guided” by the media. We’ve had nearly 12 months of pro-Cameron hysteria, with a constant refrain of “new, changed, exciting (etc etc)”, so its hardly surprising that that is to an extent reflected in these surveys. The message has become the story. There are signs that the media are starting to become tired of puffing him, though. If that becomes the norm it will be interesting to see what the effect is.
One of the main factors on +ve/-ve approval with both Cameorn and Campbell is that there were large numbers of undecideds, but of those who made up their mind the balance was net +ve for Cameron and net -ve for Campbell. So there is still a fair amount to play foe on all sides.
I see Byers is putting a Blairite shot across Browns domain regarding abolishing inheritance tax.
If not abolished, the threshold of 285k to 300k needs increasing,or many of those close marginals could be swung easily by Browns intransigence.
9 - the 13% rating for Campbell was actually for Kennedy (Dec 2005).
9. So if it’s not Cameron, then the Conservative Party itself must be more popular to account for the improvement in the polls over the same timeframe.
1 Silly spin.
What Digby Jones says in his article today is that “Immigration is a good thing” is no more accurate than “immigration is a bad thing”.
He then says, Business must make the case for quality and controlled immigration. You will speak English, you will bring a skill, you will have a National Insurance number and participate in the transparent economy, pay tax and enjoy the protection of employment and health & safety legislation. The colour of your skin or the God you worship doesn’t matter.
13 Max. Im surprised you chose to mention that. Of the three future leaders Cameron was considered “More spin than substance” than both Cambell or Brown! Extraordinary when you consider he’s only been around for 9 months.
18. I was quoting from a TV programme. He went on to say that in two years all the other countries in Europe would also be accepting Polish immigrants and many would go to France and Germany in particular and Britain would lose it’s competitive advantage. He said we should be doing something now to counter this.
20 - I chose to mention it because you said something that this poll clearly didn’t suggest. Almost as many people think Brown is more spin than substancs than Cameron. So your assertion that everyone is looking forawrd to an un-spun Brown was patently untrue.
I don’t think it’s surprising at all that people think DC is lacking substance at the moment, this will be the case untill we have policies in place. Worth waitinf for thoug in IMHO.
FWIW, the Observer mentions the tracker data briefly (in a piece saying Israel has turned down a Blair proposal for immediate new talks with the Palestinians), thus:
“A daily ‘tracker’ of public attitudes to major political figures by pollsters YouGov showed a sharp rise in Reid’s rating. Though all politicians generally register in negative figures, Reid’s rating was up from minus 21 before the terror crisis to minus two - just ahead of Tory leader David Cameron on minus five.
YouGov said Blair was at minus 37, with Brown fairly steady at minus 22.”
I looked up Mike’s last pb.com report, which had these figures:
David Cameron
July 28 +15, Aug 3 +14, Aug 7 +13, Aug 8 +10, Aug 9 +9, Aug 10 +7
Tony Blair
July 28 -39, Aug 3 -36, Aug 7 -33, Aug 8 -33, Aug 9 -32, Aug 10 -32
Gordon Brown
July 28 -3, Aug 3 -2, Aug 7 0, Aug 8 0, Aug 9 -1, Aug 10 -2
So these figures are comparable, they show Cameron down 9 points, Blair down 5, and Brown down 23. Since Brown hasn’t been much in the news and Yougov describe his rating as ‘fairly steady’, I think the last is likely to be a misprint, probably for -2.
Assuming this is the case, and accepting that Reid’s rating reflects the particular circumstances of the last fortnight,
then the startling figure is Cameron’s decline from favour: TB has slipped back again to previous low ratings, but DC has been comfortably positive throughout until now, and most of us would accept he’s been the main factor boosting the Tory poll rating. If people are starting to see him sceptically, what of the party?
How frequently do we hear Nulab posters chortle that Brown and Nulab are safe whatever happens because ‘it is the economy stupid’.
So good news today that real inflation is 10% for those middle income middle England voters in those marginals that count.
The article says,
Prof Scase said.
“Such people tend to have larger houses, so they will consume more energy. They tend to use larger cars, therefore they are using more petrol. And, by virtue of having larger houses, they will tend to need more repairs done.”
The Government last week announced that the official rate of inflation, as measured by the CPI, fell to 2.4 per cent during July
Correction: Cameron is apparently down 12 points.
re 24. Nick - there are two questions that YouGov ask in their tracker and the one I feature is the “Good job - bad job” rating not the “positive impression” that is out this morning.
I started a new thread in the tracker.
B2W: nice to see your concern for the well-being of floating voters: “Good news! Their cost of living has gone up, so they might be more tempted to vote for us!” I know the temptation - when the Tories were in power, I had grit my teeth to avoid gloating over claims of bad news. But I did feel ashamed of the instinct. Do you?
23 Blue2Win. Well with a “Shagger” inspired green agenda they’ll not be voting Tory either !!
22 & 24 - Nick there are two questions. Good job/bad job - which is what last weeks article were about. The other is about positive/negative perceptions which is what this weeks figures relate to.
The Sunday Times figures can be put another way. On the question of who would be the most capable PM Cameron’s score declines by two points but Brown’s by 4.
http://www.times-archive.co.uk/onlinespecials/trends1.pdf
While you are there look at the chart on whether people think immigration is good for Britain.
A net 12 % of women disagree as do 24% of C2DE and a significant majority of those living in the North and Midlands while a majority in the south think its a good thing.
Only one more straw on the camel maybe but a potential threat to the Nulab voter base none the less.
Nick Palmer It was meant to be ironic, but for effective irony the writing has to be very careful and I was not careful enough.
Giving points way like that…….what would Mrs T say.
26. But you only gritted your teeth and avoided gloating because of how that would have been perceived by the public. I’m quite sure that you - like the supporters of most parties in opposition - had a voice inside you each time a news story broke about the government of the day messing up or the economy taking a downturn, saying ‘Yes! We’re one step nearer power’. It’s balanced by another voice saying that real people will feel real pain because of it, but then you console yourself that you’re not celebrating their misfortune, you’re celebrating the coming of the day when ‘our lot’ will be in power and won’t make these sort of mistakes. Or something like that.
The North/South Working Class/Middle Class divide on immigration is interesting. Those who come into contact with (particularly East European immigrants) think they’re a good idea. Those who don’t IE Working class areas in the North don’t!
I’m sure when the information spreads that they are saving us all large amounts of tax and are a real boost to the economy perceptions will change. I googled the Digby Jones programme and got directed to the ‘Stormfront website’!! Digby would be advised to keep his head down in Burnley if he should ever think of visiting!!
The amazing psychology of party supporters is always a joy to behold. Doesn’t matter what the facts say, they always jiggle them around and look for the silver lining. Its as if empiricism does not exist. This is best expressed in a joke.
There was this man who really loved his wife, really loved her, couldn’t believe anything bad about her. Then his best friend told him she was having an affair, at first he didn’t accept it. Then he was persueded to hire a private detective. After a week the detective came back with his report. ‘I followed your wife’, he said, ‘On Wednesday she went for her tennis lesson, then she
went for a meal with the coach,’ The mans face got longer and longer. The detective continued, ‘Then they went off to a Motel, booked a room together. ‘I went up the fire escape, and looked through the window,’ The man’s face got even longer, the detective continued, ‘They took all of their clothes off, and got onto the bed.’ The man looked distraught, ‘And then what happened, he asked almost sobbing. The detective replied, ‘I couldn’t see anymore, they turned off the light,’ The man instanly cheered up, ‘Oh what a shame, so there’s still that element of doubt,’
All the evidence shows, that despite it all, Cameron has not transformed the Tories chance of winning the next GE, he may have improved them, but only very marginally. Why some people are in denial over this, baffles me.
32. Roger, I don’t know where you are, but I live in Shipley and work in Bradford and there are plenty of Polish registered cars round here. I don’t know whether that’s the case across the North (Bradford had significant immigration from Eastern and Central Europe in the 1950s - before the Asian immigration later - so already had links with the area), but to say that we haven’t had contact with East European immigrants isn’t accurate.
33 - stonecold, you forget that in little over a year the policy reviews will report, thus making a Tory governement a, ahem, stonecold certainty.
Oh really not holding my breath, who cares about policies. Hardly anyone bothers to read them, if they do, they either don’t understand them, or if they understand them they don’t believe them! People vote for a party out of habit, or instinct, personalities are much more important than policies. The British voter knows when a party of government runs out of time and needs kicking out, just as they know when an opposition is ready for government. At the present the jury is out, we are ‘Waiting for Gordo’
Oh that comment about inflation being 10% for middle class people. Prof. Scase looking at the figures came up with the following comment, ‘Such people tend to have larger houses, so they will consume more energy. They tend to use larger cars, therefore they are using more petrol,’ gosh you can see how he became a professor, can’t you! I think I have spotted a solution to their ‘problem’ DON’T USE SO MUCH ENERGY AND SO MUCH PETROL. Which of course is in line with, (dare I say it) Conservative Party policy.
35 Tabman. Ming on SkyNews shortly.
Sky link with Ming out of synch !
24. B2W - the price of oil and gas is falling in the wholesale markets, and these drops will feed through to housholds in the next few months. Inflation is the change in prices. It’s not about picking peak prices and stubbornly quoting it in all articles as though prices were fixed at that point.
Re the figures - were the polls done before or after Cameron made his appearance on TV, and does this confirm or refute Mike Smithson’s thesis that Cameron’s ratings always improve if he is on TV?
David. The poll said that the influx of East European Labour was most welcome among Middle Class people and those from the south and least among working class people and those from the north and midlands. It’s obvious that the immigrants will have headed for the wealthier regions with the nearest to full empolyment.
In other words the wealthier areas in the South. Which is why I generalized and said that those who see most of them are the ones who most approve.
38. Jack, any Hunky’s appearance while I was on holiday?
The last time I was aways, he was silenced by his leader
36. “Prof. Scase looking at the figures came up with the following comment, ‘Such people tend to have larger houses, so they will consume more energy. They tend to use larger cars, therefore they are using more petrol,’ gosh you can see how he became a professor, can’t you!”
LOL. Yes, he’s missed the point that they had large houses last year, and inflation is the % change in price from one year to another. Petrol price change experienced by a large car owner will be the same as the price change experienced by a small owner. It’s not about volumes of petrol consumed (which will be roughly constant - the large car will consume the same volume this year as last, unless the driver has changed his driving habits; if he drives slower, or less frequently, the volume consumed will drop, and if he drives faster or more frequently, the volume consumed will fall.
That should have said “if he drives slower, or less frequently, the volume consumed will drop, and if he drives faster or more frequently, the volume consumed will rise“
41 Andrea. We’ve seen considerably less of Hunky than you have of Hunks over the past fortnight !!
I imagine his point is that the CPI no longer reflects the goods consumed by a fairly large proportion of society, and some people have seen far more inflation than the official figures. Of course if the official figures are correct then some have seen far less.
There is a fairly widespread view that they are not correct - which would tend to overstate growth.
44. Jack, but I’m sure you know it wouldn’t be my style to pay attention to hunks on a beach…
56% want him out by the end of the year? Can that really mean that only 44% want him out by the end of the week? Extraordinary.