Is Cameron making the female MP issue his Clause 4?
August 21st, 2006-
Is he right to push a change on which he could be beaten?
Ever since he was elected as leader critics have argued that David Cameron needs to do more than have smart presentation to prove to the electorate that the Tory party has changed. For this, like Tony Blair with Clause Four in the mid-1990s, Cameron has needed an issue on which he can campaign.
Today he is to announce moves that could prove to be highly controversial and on which he could conceivably be beaten - he wants to interfere with the way local Tory parties choose their candidates to make sure that more women are being considered.
For as we saw with the Bromley by-election candidate selection local Tory associations have a huge amount of autonomy on this issue and taking this away is not going to come easily. The culture of the party throughout the country is not one that is ready to accept encroachments that many will see as being pushed for politically correct reasons.
The Tories desperately want to return to power - but would giving up part of local party powers be a price that many would regard as a step too far?
Today’s Cameron plan will strip grassroots members of the final say on who should be their candidate and on the face of it looks like a highly dangerous road for the leader to go down. But Cameron appears determined to move from a system that results in just 10% of his party MPs being female.
To my mind the moves do two things: they will divert the focus from accusations that Cameron is policy-lite and they will set the media agenda as we move into the conference season. The fact that defeat is possible will only add to the interest.
In one sense I don’t think that Cameron is risking much. If he fails to get his changes at least he will have proved to the world - and women voters in particular - that this is a battle that he is willing to fight. Women know how tough it is breaking down the barriers and a defeat at the first hurdle would reinforce his victory when that eventually comes.
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Also the longer the argument on female candidates goes on the less he will be challenged on other things. This is the classic Blair device - so for Cameron it could be Win Win.
One of the interesting polling moves since Cameron was elected has been the proportion of women who now say they support the party. In poll after poll the female segment is proving to be much more Tory than the male one. This is only returning to how things used to be. Until Blair’s victory in 1997 women were much more Tory inclined than men.
Mike Smithson
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I think you mean Tory inclined rather than Rory inclined!
re 1 Thanks. Changed
I’m not against policies to encourage more women candidates: we have all-women shortlists in some seats, after all. The problem about Cameron focusing on it a la clause 4 is that “should more Tory candidates be women?” is perceived by most as less central to politics than “does Labour have a plausible economic policy?”, which is what the Clause 4 debate came down to. As long as we were committed in principle to nationalising everything down to the corner shop, it cast a debatable light on our economics generally.
We can’t predict what people will see as the key issues in coming months, but there will certainly be regular controversies. If, each time the TV news deals with terrorism, the NHS, the economy, or whatever, the newsreader then says, “In further political news, the Conservatives continue to debate how many of their candidates should be women”, a sense of perceived detachment will creep in.
The politics of DC’s stance is interesting - but so are the practicalities of what he proposes.
In practice imo this move is doomed to failure. In practicular the ‘threat’ that this will be reviewed in a year and if it doesn’t work, further actuion will be taken. How is that going to change the mind of any individual association chairman? It’s a highly individualistic thing and even if the chairman agrees with the principle, the feeling will be “let some other constituency select the woman”.
The quota thing also risks alienating a significant but less vocal minority within the party: homosexual men. They already feel they face barriers to selection (social events where wives are expected to attend etc) and now this new move further reduces their chances of getting selected. This group is not to be underestimated within the party - especially as people who naturally tend to have higher disposable incomes (generally no kids) and to be disproportionately active/ambitious.
Bad move all round
Good luck with that spin, Nick. First Tory numbers among women are huge now. They will like this. I have seen posters pour scorn on DC’s work-life balance speeches & those on childcare and ‘vote blue go green’ but look at the results. Further, Brand Cameron is far better than Brand Tory. I disagree with Mike when he says a loss on the issue would have no effect. DC must be seen to be taking Brand Tory with him, and not as a weak leader unable to reform his party.
But Labour had a reputation for utter political incompetence the Tories don’t have. We’ve seen Cameron go hard on immigration and on terror, areas where Labouris very weak having lost control of the borders. I expect a lot on law and order too. Having a sensible reform like this will gain headlines and avoid any charges of reverting to Old Tory type when he goes hard on terror and immigration.
A one-two punch strategy. Clever.
Nick @ 3.
I don’t fully agree with Mike that this is a “clause 4″ issue; and you are right, this is not *the* central issue in politics at present.
However, whilst it was right for Blair to ditch clause 4 because it no longer represented the country he was aspiring to lead, so it is also right for Cameron to place some emphasis on ensuring that the Conservative Party per se looks more like the country he aspires to lead.
It is easy to spin this proposal (as you do) as the only Tory story in town at present; however I would remind you that since Cameron returned from holiday 10 days ago he has announced/proposed the following:
Changes to selection process to increase female representation;
A Delivery Watchdog
Amendments to planning regulations
“Right to mortgage” for council/housing association tenants
Criticsed the government for it’s handling of the underlying security issues
Built to Last - with 50 policy statements, including traditional tory issues of simpler taxation, but also with a strong emphasis on environment & work/life balance issues
I’m sure there are others. Built to Last in particular provides a seedbed upon which the detailed policy commissions will build in due course. I have no doubt that the bulk of policy development will be (rightly) timed to coincide with an approaching general election and new Labour leader.
Those detractors who have criticised Cameron for lacking policy (many members included) now have the braod foundations of the next Conservative government to mull over. I expect the recent rate of announcements to continue to increase, and to contrast with the Lib Dems approach of reannoucning their tax proposal many times over, and a Labour government that has run out of ideas just one year into it’s 3rd term focussed on an increasinly internecine leadership battle.
I may be biased, but I think I know which of the parties is genuinely undergoing renewal at present.
Renewal - harrumph.
And another thing: “A Delivery Watchdog” - isn’t that exactly the kind of meaningless guff we criticise Blair for? Why is our leader now coming out with these platitudes?
I seem to recall Marcus Woods of this parish once stating that in order to gain power he’d happily support 98% top rate tax and renationalisation, so I can’t see these relatively minor changes causing much of an issue.
6 - I hardly call a bunch of vague aspirations a “policy statement”. Saying you want to simplify taxes is an aspiration; stating which taxes you would simplify, and how, is policy, and Cameorn hasn’t done that.
9 - I agree with your second sentence. The Policy statements set out the broad intention. The detail will come from the policy commission in due course, as I posted. Built to Last provides the direction of the next Conservative Govenrment - a seedbed if you will.
Renewal is a process, not an event. It doesn’t occur overnight, desperate as many are in the 24 hours news culture for it to do so.
[2] For reasons best known to himself, Nick Palmer (not for the first time IIRC) chooses to repeat his opponents’ re-write of his own party’s history when he says we were committed in principle to nationalising everything down to the corner shop. What Clause IV, written by the Webbs, actually said was “the best obtainable system of popular administration and control” - whether that was to be achieved by nationalisation or not was an empirical matter for case-by-case judgment. The Co-op Party (which still sponsors Labour MPs) would hardly have remained in Labour’s big tent otherwise.
[6] More spin - the “right to mortgage” for Council tenants was introduced by the Major government. Take-up was negligible.
3. Nick, I sort of agree with the first part. Blair’s clause 4 was about party’s policies and principles. This one is about female candidates. You can argue it’s about party’s attitudes though. But it’s more like Labour’s introduction of All Women Shortlists.
I think that you can class it as a clause 4 moments (as a way to change attitudes), but I still place a step down compared to Labour clause 4 change.
But you can also argue that it’s an admission of defeat at the moment. It’s like “our useless members won’t select enough women, we should strip them the power to select”.
Not sure about the reactions of members. Many tories usually refers to the authoritarian attitude of New Labour and sometimes to the lack of democracy in Labour….but not even NewLab has even thought of something like this!
If they had proposed it, I’m pretty sure that there would have been a NEC meeting with someone left injured after it!
10 - I think your right about it being a process and not an event. Labour’s renewal wasn’t about a single event it was far more long term and broad based. Clause 4 just seems to have become a catch-all phrase for a number of changes.
I’ve never subscribed to their being, or needing to be, a Clause 4 moment for the Tories. I just don’t think there is a Conservative Party equivalent of it and I don’t see much point in trying to find one.
Andrea 12 “Many tories usually refers to the authoritarian attitude of New Labour and sometimes to the lack of democracy in Labour….but not even NewLab has even thought of something like this!”
Is that true? It looks like Cameron is offering all women shortlists that are voluntary for Tories whereas Labour made them compulsory.
14. At least Labour members can actually vote on what women they prefer. In the Cameron’s case there’s the chance it’s the executive that will final choice of the candidate in 300+ members associations.
Why don’t you just let decide candidates directly to Francis Maude? It would have been easier!
just a thought - does the cluase four moment for the tories have to come in opposition, could it not come when there in power. a windfall from say oil revenues being spent on education rather than tax cuts for example?
16. If already in power, why would you need a clause 4 moment?
I thought Clause Poor was Clause 4. Not big enough though, and it was a general statement rather than a policy (yes yes, I know…).
O/T Anyone lose/win money on the test match? Big rumpus with betfair who have yet to pay out on any result - could be big implications for future betting if they dont get this right.
There were 35 seats in the first tranche of constituencies expected to select from the Priority List. 22 have selected a candidate, but 13 seats haven’t made the selection yet:
Colchester
Luton North
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing Central and Acton
Finchley and Golders Green
Richmond Park
Stockton South
Pendle
Oxford West and Abingdon
Truro and Falmouth
Coventry South
Telford
What actually happened to them? I know some of them asked to delay the process (Finchley and Truro for ex)…is the same for the remaining seats? Or some of them is expected to select shortly?
Some of them are actually very promising seats (Finchley and Ealing Central and Acton for ex) for a candidate.
19 - Have a (very) small bet on England to win… (£2.50 that I put on before the start @ about 4.6). Would expect to pick up my £9.00 winnings, but not particularly bothered if they void it and refund all bets which would be the only alternative. Personally it’s clear in my mind - England win through a Pakistan forfeiture according to the match referee and the ICC so if I was Betfair I’d go with the official result. Could be interesting to see what happens though…
Was there on Saturday - Chap in front of me was miffed that Totesport (the Bookie in the ground) would only take half his bet at 25-1 for an England win - other half at 16’s - Not sure how much he had on but I hope he collects!
19. I had money on Pakistan. Think they would have gone on to win. Do you know if anyone has paid out for an England win yet?
Betfair haven’t paid out - rumour is that they are considering voiding bets placed after the bails were taken off by the umps..
Cricket: Anyone else there on Sunday, and know the procedure for requesting refund. (Apparantly ECB say 40% of face value for Sunday - follow instructions on back of ticket. Loads of people will not have kept there ticket though… presumanly proof of purchase would be good enough? )
Off thread, yet another gaffe by my favourite policeman - in London ‘it’s safe to leave your door unlocked’
Really, you couldn’t make this stuff up.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2321643,00.html
5. “But Labour had a reputation for utter political incompetence the Tories don’t have.”
LOL. Why do you think the Tories have lost three general election if not for incompetance?
Regarding having a clause 4 moment: by definition it should be something that goes to the heart of Torysim, and therefore provide a real wrench and a real battle, complete with the equivalent of Tony Benn looking shell-shocked at the conference.
Are women candidates really such an issue? Is hostility to women something in the heart of Torydom that has to be tackled in the most dramatic brutal fashion?
Looking at it from the outside, a proper clause 4 would be ditching tax cuts, or admitting that Britain can never leave the EU - issues that do go to the heart of Torydom.
The women issue seems manufactured and also, do you win points by telling the public that the core of the Tory party hate women candidates and will only accept them if the leadership forces them on the party? Wouldn’t that emphasise even more the fact that the party remains very different from Cameron?
24 - Interesting… bails off signify the end of the match, so voiding all bets after that and then paying out on an England victory could be seen as ‘fairest’ although whatever they do some people are going to be unhappy.
28. I guess it shows the danger of leaving large unmatched bets on betfair - England went from 30s to 1.6 in a hurry - there must have been money left there to take even after it was obvious the game was over.
question:
how much does it cost to run an open primary? If it’s not very much, I can picture quite a good number of seats going for it after the proposed changes.
19 - I should have a small amount to come to offset my foolish faith in Man City. They’d better pay out, I bet on England to win the match and England won the match. I feel vaguely sorry for those who piled in on Pakistan but that’s betting, it could well have rained non-stop as well.
Hopefully they will prevent that Aussie umpire from officiating in any games with Asian teams in future to prevent any further farces.
32. Anyone layin England at 50/1 yesterday must be sick.
A horse called “Conservative” is runing in the 17.20 at Yarmouth.
It has been gelded so presumably could get on either side of a candidate shortlist!
Andrea @ 30: It doesn’t necessarily cost any more than a normal selection - the only difference is that the final selection meeting is open to the public rather than just party members. The only extra cost would be a couple of ads in the local papers advertising the meeting.
35. Thanks Anthony.
There was the story of Viv Richards batting for Haslingden for the first time. The ground was bursting two hours before the start. Three unsuccessful appeals in the first three overs led the bowler to say to the umpire
“I’ve had him caught twice and LBW once. What do I have to do to get him out?”.
“Sorry mate but this crowd have come to Richards bat not to see me umpire”
I think this was a lesson Darrell Hair should have learnt.
37. And the Pakistanis - correct action would have been to resume after tea “under protest” and sort out after the end of the days play. I think the team wanted to play - they were badly advised.
Labour nationalised everything but the cornershop., HMMMMMM
Remember the Heath government, the ‘lame ducks’ policy fell at the first fence, Rolls Royce Aero engines, then there was Upper Clyde Shipbuilders. One of the first nationalisations was Thomas Cooke, who was the perpertrator a certain Winston Spencer Churchill, (as a Liberal) back in 1909. In fact the father of nationalisation was Joseph Chamberlain, when as Mayor of Birmingham, he introduced ‘gas and water socialism’ in fact I believe that radical Joe was the true father of Labourism, not Karl Marx. If you look at Chamberlain’s policy of tariff reform and Imperial preference, and remove the imperial, the Bennite solution of the 70’s and 80’s is a carbon copy. Where do Tories stand now? After all agriculture, described by Sean Rickard one time chief economist of the NFU ‘As the greatest conspiracy to defraud the British tax payer ever devised.’ Agriculture was effectively nationalised in 1940, if you say to a Tory, ‘Lets stop all subsidies, lets turn the countryside over to the free market etc.’ they will give you a thousand reasons why not. Tories believe in socialism but they believe in it for rich people, their battle cry at the barricades ‘A welfare state for the wealthy.’
37. Viv Richards never played for Haslingden, he played for Rishton.
Ironic that Pakistan’s whingeing about ‘biased’ umpires in the 1980s led to neutral umpires being introduced. Now they claim the neutral umpires are biased as well. No doubt they won’t be satisfied until Shakoor Rana lookalikes (the great man having himself passed on) officiate in all matches.
40 C’mon ever since Hair’s first test match he hasn’t favoured an asian team.
O/T Radio 5 just said that the big bookies are paying out on an England win.
41 - Surely an umpire shouldn’t ‘favour’ any team?!!
what’s up with this cricket sport? Can teams have “I don’t want to play anymore, because he told me off. Now I call my mum!” moments?
42 - Should give the impetus to Betfair to follow suit. Just a question of if they void bets matched after the bails were removed.
41. Hair has just been unwilling to overlook things that other umpires have let go for the sake of a quiet life. I think that is admirable. Pakistan have the same attitude in cricket that Argentina have in football, that cheating is fine - even to be lauded - as long as you get away with it and win. If we want to prevent that attitude becoming more widespread in the game, we need more umpires like Hair, not fewer. The outrage Pakistan feign at being caught out yet again should not be taken seriously.
42, just as long as Betfair do! I’d pretty much written off the few quid I’d put on at long odds when Peiterson was smacking the ball to all parts. That said, I’d probably want to shoot someone if I was on the other end of the bet.
Betfair rules look pretty clear though, in that in the event of a game not being completed they settle on the officially declared result.
I tend to agree with Ian C’s feelings about Hair, but I want to see what he’s got to say for himself.
40. Oops. I should have said playing AT Haslingden not FOR Haslingden (though why it matters……)
Pakistan were a bunch of cheating, whining gits and Hair is a courageous man.
1. It took TWO umpires concurring to award the 5 run penalty.
2. 5 runs is not a lot.
3. Pakistan questioning the umpire’s decision at all DURING the game is wrong.
4. Pakistan were offered not just one chance but TWO to take the field. The latter of these was after a clearly explained ultimatum.
5. Hair had supreme guts to stick to the line he laid down after offering two chances to the team. England win, Pakistan forfiet, justice is done, England win. Well done Hair AND, don’t forget, the other umpire who agreed the ball was tampered with.
Still no betfair payout though
All women shortlists, and having the association membership whittling down 12-15 candidates to 3, are ideas which are so obviously stupid as to make it virtually certain that associations will opt for primaries.
49 - Doctrove, the West Indian umpire, has not been good at all(bring back Steve Bucknor!). As an England fan I’ve been embarrassed by the one sided umpiring from Hair. You want to win fair and square, not with help from the officials.
stonecold: yes, compare and contrast how the Tories treated farming vs mining and heavy industry. Britain hasnt been agriculturally significant since Roman times, yet farming is for some reason special and worth £billions in subsidies; while mining and heavy industry put the Great into Great Britain and helped us dominate the world for 200 years…then thrown on the scrapheap because of their political affiliation.
52. Nonsense - Strauss was given out to a poor decision yesterday - did England refuse to take the field after lunch ?
A rather perplexing day at the Oval yesterday. As one of the 20, something thousand punters I wasn’t overly upset. Good company, good lunch, a few drinks, great knock by Pieterson and it was dry. Prospect of Bell/Collingwood post tea grafting for a draw was replaced by all the drama.
Still could have kicked myself. I was wanting to put a post lunch punt on England with Pieterson firing on all cylinders, and was waiting for tea. But then Pieterson got out- and the rest as they say…
I tell you that if Pieterson was still in at tea and the game would have finished like that-would have been a totally different situation at the ground. Even I would have got very angry.
Question is, why would Pakistan be cheating when they were cruising towards an easy win in a dead rubber match?
54 - England have had decisions go our way, it’s hardly in question. We’ve been hard done by in the past however so that’s why we won’t complain when it doesn’t. Personally I think any available sort of video evidence should be used to see if someone is out or not, the technology’s there in test matches, why not use it?
I don’t understand what sort of link you are trying to make with Strauss, that a single decision is as bad as a number of bad decisions maybe?
49, If the situation were reversed and England were in Pakistan, found guilty of cheating without any evidence being produced, I would certainly back them in refusing to play.
This isn’t like a dubious LBW when you should accept the judgement of the umpires without question. This is an allegation of deliberate cheating, and I’m actually quite glad that in cricket that’s serious enough to warrant a crisis, rather than being a matter of routine as in many other sports.
As a non-cricketer with no great interest in the game, how easy is it to discern whether a ball has been illegally tampered with?
51. Sean Fear, if an association would like to keep the existing process and choose a AWS, who should make the decision? The executive? Or the members?
I fully agree Mark, if the Tories are looking for a clause 4 issue,then they should break their relationship with the landowning classes. Those people who are sitting pretty, due to the immoral subsidy system, if a subsidy is wrong it is wrong. The taxpayer is being milked to keep some of the wealthiest people in the country in 4X4’s. For those who say, you would cause unemployment the answer is simple, ‘My father was unemployed in the 1930’s, my father did not march, my father did not protest, my father did not riot, my father got on his bike and looked for work,’ strange how that advice only went for those, whose jobs depended on taking ore from under the ground, if you planted on top of the same ground, you were protected by the government. Wasn’t it really sickening to see a, Labour minister a Labour minister, apologising because the farmer’s ‘bung’ was late! Why didn’t Lord Rooker say, ‘As 90% of you vote for a party that believes in and promotes the free market (Ho Ho) your not getting it anyway.’ The Tory attitude to the free market is a simple one, like St Agustines attitude to chasity, Lord give me chastity, but not yet.’
61. landowning classes
Does my terraced house and garden include me in that grouping ?
It has always been the case that the laws of cricket have to be applied sensitively rather than immediately, by the letter of the law. Jumping in right at the start and in effect accusing somebody, or a team, of cheating is not very clever.
Many bowlers run on the pitch. They are generally given informal warnings before an official warning.
A batsman backing up too far is generally given a ‘life’ and a warning before being run out if he does it again.
Having said all this the concentration by the TV people on the absence of video evidence is missing an important point. If an examination of the ball showed that it was repeatedly gouged on the same side of the ball then fair wear and tear can be ruled out since wear and tear would affect both sides of the ball.
Cameron’s ratings continue to slide as more and more people see him as the PR-stunt superficiality he is. Cameron seems increasingly like Tony Blair without the intelligence, articulacy and charm. Wonder how long before the Tory faithful ditch him favour of Liam Fox.
59. You can easily tell in the seam has been picked . But I don’t think that was the issue yesterday. It is very difficult to say that a scuff mark was deliberately made. Fair play to Hair for having the guts to say something, but he will be the fall guy in all of this.
49-Commentator
Even you are on a wind up here, surely??
And Robin at 6- a bit biased- the Tories are just about spin at the moment, just spin, pure spin, spin on spin. “Built to last”- what hot hair. The more you hear from the Tories the more you begin to realise how completely irrelevant they are to modern life. Apart from opposing some of the iliberal excesses of the government the Tories have no other use.
61 - I’ve said it before but the tories need to rid themselves of their Heffer-like wing. Anger the Telegraph, have foaming at the mouth EU obsessives go and join UKIP and refuse to pander to the Murdoch world view. That’s the ‘clause 4′ comparison, where you rid the party of the loonies and the extremists.
60 I don’t know the details. But I can’t see any association adopting an all-woman shortlist in any circumstances.
64 - Case in point (couldn’t be better timed thank you!)
“This is an allegation of deliberate cheating, and I’m actually quite glad that in cricket that’s serious enough to warrant a crisis, rather than being a matter of routine as in many other sports”.
IanG- very well said, and with that I have to attend to other pressing concerns
66 .The more you hear from the Tories the more you begin to realise how completely irrelevant they are to modern life.
They weren’t that irrelevant to the 300+ council wards that switched to the Cons in May.
[61] Stonecold, I’m sure you recall this as well as I do…
They hang the man and flog the woman,
Who steals the goose from off the common,
Yet let the greater villain loose,
That steals the common from under the goose.
68. All Women Shortlists aren’t the root of all evils in the end.
And an open shortlist doesn’t guarantee the choice of a good candidate: the Venerable Helen defeated also men to get her reselection last time.
In the ideal world, there should be just open shortlists and the best candidates would be selected (no matter if it’s 60% male and 40% female or the opposite). The problem is that the world isn’t always as we would like it to be and I find hard to believe that all those tory men are better than so many tory women.
If the quality of the approved candidates list is high, all women shortlists shouldn’t produce awful candidates.
71 And judging by recent council byelections 2/3rds of them would not be won now . It is clear that Conservative suppport has on the wane along with the strawman’s approval ratings in the last couple of months .
As a non impartial observer the Conservative Clause 4 are the right wing faction that are prevalent in posting on Conservativehome . As long as their views are tolerated and reflected in Party policy the Conservative appeal to floating voters will be limited .
I imagine most associations would object on a philosophical basis, Andrea.
Could you let me have your e-mail address so I can send you my analysis.
[74] I don’t know about you, Mark, but I find that some (probably a minority it has to be said) of our Tory Peebies make me wonder why I can’t stomach their party - and then the rest of ‘em remind me
74. Hmm - recent bye elections - hardly comparing like for like on sample size - LOL !
74 - Yes Mark because they are obviously a far more representative sample of public opinion than either the large scale elections in May and the opinion polls.
Andrea - like Sean I find it hard to imagine any associations willing chosing to restrict their freedom of choice and annoying members by having an all-female shortlist. Even if they expected to select a female candidate, I think they’d prefer to do it through normal means. With the other option sounding unworkable (selection meetings with 3 candidates last hours. One with 12-15 candidates could last days), it looks as though open primaries will be the order of the day.
Stonecold, etc. Small farmers are often in a very precarious financial position and it is probably desirable that small scale farming is supported. In contrast taxpayers money is ill-spent by shoving huge wedges of it into the pockets of hugely rich large landowners - the Duke of Westminster doesn’t need a subsidy of £300k a year to keep food on the table.
That said, in practice it would be a useless “Tory Clause 4″, because the huge subsidies come from the CAP. The Conservatives can’t show they are normal people who aren’t obsessed with immigration and Europe by…er…announcing they would pull out of an area of European policy.
76 - Here we go again with the tedious beating up of Tory posters on this site. Give the bile we have to put up with from various Lib Dem and Labour posters it’s surprising that so many manage to be as restrained as they are.
41
Pakistan have a long history of ball tampering,their players being caught tampering four times in the last six years.
It was Pakistan that made the original fuss that we should have neutral Umpires,now I guess they will want to choose the Umpires for their matches,match referees as well no doubt.
Then according to the chairman of Pakistan’s cricket board they expected the Umpires to change the rules to suit Pakistan.i.e when they had refused for nearly an hour to come out after tea.
Good on Hair for cutting the crap.
75. anpa82@inwind.it
Thanks, Sean!
Cameron should better focus his energies on the disaster being inflicted on Britain by Labour.
uncontrolled immigration… mass unemployment… 10% inflation… hospital closures and staff redundancies… pensions plundered… under-resourced millitary fighting ever hostile wars…
and oh yes, prisons are overflowing, literally.
Cameron? Tim, Tim. Nice but dim.
79. Anthony - re. farming, don’t spoil the fun for the levellers by letting reality intrude.
83, ‘10% inflation, mass unemployment? Hospital Closures and staff redundancies’?
Have you just come in on a time machine from the early nineties? There are more hospitals, more nurses and more doctors now than ever. People may be upset when hundreds of nurses are being made redundent but if they never gave the government credit for the extra thousands in the first place I don’t have a lot of time for them.
As for the ecomics, that doesn’t even need rebutting!
‘economics’ sorry…
74-Mark Senior
‘ And judging by recent council byelections 2/3rds of them would not be won now . It is clear that Conservative suppport has on the wane along with the strawman’s approval ratings in the last couple of months’
Are you serious???
Wow, we have an election just over 3 months ago involving 4,000+ seats? which according to all pundits the Tories do well & gain 300+ seats; we then have the weekly trickle of 2/3 byelections scattered throughout the UK & these results totally negate the results across England 3 months ago.
Grandad & TB have not exactly shot up the polls either in the selective 2 month time frame that you take,or hadn’t you noticed?
87. I fail to see how you can claim that the five byelections so far held in August are an unrepresentative sample.
There really have been too few by-elections recently to draw much of a conclusion.
87 In every single council byelection which was also fought in May the Conservative vote has fallen . You can tell when the strawman’s fan club is rattled when the Grandad comments come out .
90. I suggest you head straight to the bookmakers and place a large bet on the LDs to win the next election by a handsome margin then…
91 Why should I do that Jamie , I have as said before laid the Conservatives not to get an overall majority and can already close it for a small profit .
A lot of by-elections since May have seen intervention by the BNP, which reduces the vote shares of both the Conservatives and Labour.
Jamie - 91 - But would to bookies pay out if the Tories and Labour were disqualified for the illegal funding of their campaigns?
So how exactly would open primaries for selecting PPCs work? Simply on the basis of having an open meeting, and anyone who turns up can vote? If so, isn’t it being rather naïve to believe that a large proportion of people who turn up won’t be Labour / Lib Dem / UKIP / BNP / Respect / SWP / Green etc. activists, who would presumably love the idea of, at worst turning the selection meeting into a total farce, and at best actually helping to select their own opponent.
On Thread. Anything that ministers to female voters is shrewd politics from Cameron, who after all is polling well with female voters already and who are more likely to vote.
My only concern for the Tories about this Clause Gal moment is that Cameron is going too far if the holiday pictures of DC are any guide, as the chap is clearly growing a Jordaneque pair of man boobs !!
…… or of course something more drastic is inhand … Vladtastic !!! 
90 - You can tell when Grandad’s fan club is rattled when the strawman comments come out .
90
I would have thought that trying to make a trickle of by-election results fit your bizzare dialogue & your reference to strawman indicated that Grandad is now recognised by you as the IDS moment for the Lib Dems.
94. Or if the LDs took money gained by deception ? ;o)
I’m no expert but when the official announcement is made by those in charge (returning officer/umpire)then the bookies pay out.
After the event the bookies can’t reclaim the money - what about those that bet on Floyd Landis in the Tour - they got paid :o(
96.”who are more likely to vote.”
where did you get this impression?
A Mori research after the 2005 GE showed that the turnout of mena nd women was almost the same (62% for men and 61% for women)
100 - Andrea, you have to make allowances for Jack - he’s not as young as the rest of us and his memory isn’t quite what it used to be.
I’m only surprised he isn’t advising DC to back the suffragettes as a means of courting the female vote.
” Cameron’s ratings continue to slide as more and more people see him as the PR-stunt superficiality he is. Cameron seems increasingly like Tony Blair without the intelligence, articulacy and charm. Wonder how long before the Tory faithful ditch him favour of Liam Fox. ”
Are you sure the general public think that or even that the party members, if given the chance now, would opt for Fox or Davis instead?
Ahead of Labour and squeezing the Lib Dems, but you expect the Conservative Party to dump Cameron?
Often, the general public is actually thinking the opposite to party members and they have the final say in the end, not us. Talk of replacing Cameron is silly until he’s been to the polls in a GE in my opinion.
We have at least 18 months before a general election. Be honest, most Labour and Lib Dems members would kill for a guy like DC wouldn’t they? Just as many say (only slightly tongue in cheek) that Blair was one of the best Conservative leaders we never had… although not many would admit that now.
If we had a leader content to lurch to the right, that’d be proof it’s the same old ‘nasty’ Tories followed by a forth straight defeat via the Labour spin machine and cuddly Lib Dems.
In reality, it’s actually the Lib Dems and Labour who need to worry. They have short, medium and long term leadership issues.
I honestly believe that it was a fatal mistake for the Liberal Membership to elect Ming just as it would be to allow Brown to become Labour PM / Leader. What exactly will he be able to do that will transform New Labour into a historic fourth term? Move to the left, right or stay in the centre? Will it make any difference at all?
The good ship DC will continue reforming and building a modern Conservative party that has long standing core values but is changing to reflect the world we live in. He’s not going to be liked by everyone, but you don’t get to be PM if you are.
Many would disagree of course.
(putting on my flame retardant jacket)
Matt.
O/T - a new Gaelic school has been opened in Glasgow:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/5267212.stm
I would be interested in the views of our Scots (and Welsh) posters on this. I can see the case for Gaelic schools in the far northwest, where there are communities who speak it as a first language. But Glasgow? Well, clearly there’s a need for it - I guess from Highlanders who’ve moved to the city - but should we really be eductaing children in a language alien to the city they’re growing up in? Why? What good does it do either them or the country? I don’t want to be antagonistically Anglophone about this, I’d just like to know the arguments in it’s favour.
101 Max. You mean Cameron isn’t backing the suffragettes !! …. certainly Balfour and Lord Derby aren’t keen !!
103 Actually Bearsden is one of the largest communities of Gaelic speakers (if not the largest)- so a school like this in the dear green place is not so strange as it might look. Personally I welcome anything that helps Gaelic survive- and it is about time that Gaelic medium education received the highest priority.
103 - Glasgow has a large number of people originally from the Highlands so there may be demand for it there but not in the rest of the central belt.
I do think it’s fairly ridiculous that every local authority has to have a Gaelic strategy though, even in areas like the Borders where I don’t think Gaelic was ever that widely spoken.
104 - I certainly hope not - it’s a modernising step too far!
105 Cicero. Agreed. For generations Gaelic has been marginalized and any attempts to revive the culture are to be applauded.
103. Having gone to school in Wales for a few years I can testify to what a complete waste of time learning Welsh was. I mean who wants to learn something useful like French or German, when you can learn Welsh.
107 - I think that’s fair enough but should it be done in parts of the country that have their own culture and identity and where Gaelic was never the dominant language or culture?
105 - Bearsden? Gosh. So how many people speak Gaelic as a first language in Bearsden? Do they operate as a separate sub-community?
Would have thought Stornoway was the largest community of Gaelic speakers - 8000 people, almost all having Gaelic as a first language. Clearly Bearsden is bigger (c.40000? Thereabouts) - but are as many as 1 in 5 Gaelic speakers? Though I can definitely imagine it being the second biggest, as I can think of few other Gaelic speaking towns.
Thanks for the info, though - fascinating.
Max - I agree - don’t think Gaelic was ever spoken in the south. The indigenous Celtic language in the south was closer to modern Welsh. And much of the south-east was settled by Angles.
102. “Just as many say (only slightly tongue in cheek) that Blair was one of the best Conservative leaders we never had… although not many would admit that now.”
LOL, you can tell Blair was a success by the numbers in other parties trying to claim him for their own! Which is exactly why Labour would be wrong to mount a coup instead of a smooth transition where Blair gets to leave with a bit of dignity. Blair is our JFK - even the bit after 2003 is what would have happened to JFK had he lived and gone on to a second term and had to deal with the repercussions of his decision to send troops to Vietnam. I expect to see many “Blair-tribute” politicians in the next decade. The Lib Dems may have a go next with Nick Clegg.
Anyone who can lead Labour to three GE victories on the bounce deserves some credit
110. Norse languages were spoken in parts of the Western Isles, the far north of Scotland, and Orkney & Shetland until the late middle ages too. No question of a ‘Norn’ strategy for Caithness & Sutherland though, I imagine. It wouldn’t fit into the current ahistorical efforts to create a ‘celtic’ and ‘oppressed’ identity for Scotland.
109 Max. It’s simply incorrect that Gaelic or forms of it weren’t spoken in southern Scotland. In Galloway it was the dominant language and in much of lowland Scotland forms of Gaelic were the norm until the later middle ages.
The only areas that were resistant to Gaelic were parts of modern day Lothian. extreme North East Scotland and Orkney and Shetland.
I think it’s important that in education children have an appreciation of and indeed the opportunity to enrich their heritage and learn of the language and wider culture of their fellow Scots.
114 - …Before they decide to seek fame and fortune in, er, Harpenden?
The first Welsh-medium secondary schools were established in predominantly English-speaking areas in the 1950s to provide for the Welsh-speaking minorities living in those areas. Since then the demand for Welsh-medium education from non-Welsh speakers has hugely increased and these days the vast majority of pupils in Welsh-medium schools in Anglicized areas come from non-Welsh speaking homes.
With regard to learning French, German and other languages, being bilingual and having learned a second language fluently at a young age is a great advantage: you understand how languages “work” and can pick them up much more easily. I wish the pupils and teachers in the new Gaelig school all the best. Pob dymuniad da.
115 John O.
… we didn’t turn back at Derby in 1745 and annexed Harpenden …. why do you think we have a large Highland Games in the town ??
ukpaul wants to rid the Tory party of lonnies and extremists, well its goodbye Tory party then!
116. Maybe you’re right re learning languages. I only did Welsh for a couple of years. Hated every minute of it!
117 - Indeed. The only tossing the deep fried mars bar competition south of the border, or so I’m unreliably informed.
“I guess from Highlanders who’ve moved to the city”
As someone who grew up in the highlands and who’s local education authority tried this 30 years ago when I was at primary school, let me say it’s bloody waste of time! As my mum put on the form, “great idea, just 3 generations too late.
Have a couple of friends from the islands who are fluent gaelic speakers, their children will learn the language because they will hear it at home and its still spoken in their local community.
Most kids will chose a 2nd language on the basis of its relevance to their future careers or lives. Sadly that means french, german or spanish rather than gaelic. Does Stornaway do a club 18 to 30 holiday?
114 - Jack - I think you might be stretching a point here. The dominant language in the south-west 1000 years ago was Celtic, but was not Gaelic - it was the original ‘British’ language which bore the same resemblance to Gaelic as English does to Dutch. And I’ll concede that some Gaelic was spoken beyond the west - people moved around after all - but I’d need some convincing that it could ever be described as the ‘dominant’ language anywhere away from the Highlands. And, as you say, this was only the case up until the later middle ages. If we’re going to start teaching children a second language on the logic of what used to be spoken there hundreds of years ago, we’d end up teaching English schoolchildren Anglo-Saxon, or Welsh.
I don’t disagree with you about the cultural importance of keeping a language alive if there is a will to do so - but I can’t agree that Gaelic is in some way the traditional language of any more than part of the Scottish nation.
But then, you’ll not be surprised that my views of Scottish history differ from yours.
Why do people tend to refer to female candidates to “win voters” as they’re all the same and with the same potentially impact over voters?
Is there evidence that women are ready to vote for a woman candidate just because she’s a woman and not just being more ready to listen a female candidate than a male one (and then maybe saying she talks rubbish anyway)?
I somehow doubt that selecting some new Theresa Gormans would attract so many floating voters!
120 John O. Indeed John …. we have the odd additions to the normal competitions :
1. Flame grilling Lib Dem canvassers - Quickest to over done the winner !
2. UKIP Country Dancing - Round and round in circles until deluded.
3. Tossing the Gay Tories - Salads take a beating until the bowls look impeccable !
4. The Pipes and Band of Polish Plumbers - Remarkably cheap for Harpenden !
123 - But if we only had another 600 Widdies we’d do OK Andrea!
121 - Chris although I went to school in Peebles, Gaelic was offered as a Standard Grade subject (one of the History teachers was from the Western Isles) but there just wasn’t any demand for it. And I think that would be mirrored in most other Borders schools.
125. Max, but Widdy has some strange appeal, TG not even that one!
122 Cookie. I stand to be corrected but I was under the impression that until the latter middle ages that Gaelic was the principal language of historic Galloway (Galloway, Dumfries, Ayrshire).
Ann Widdecombe is indeed popular, Andrea.
As well as indicating that turnout among men and women was much the same, MORI’s figures suggested that voting intentions were fairly similar as well.
127 - a number of Protestant settlers from South West Scotland in Seventeenth century Ulster could speak Gaelic, so it must have been known to quite a lot of people in the region.
128 - I remember a poll from the 2001 election showing that she was the only potential Tory leader who would actually have increased our share of the vote.
128. The Essex Uni research showed a similar thing regarding male and female turnout
http://www.essex.ac.uk/bes/Papers/ec%20report%20final.pdf#search=%22female%20turnout%202005%20general%20election%22
129 Sean. Thanks. Interestingly in the 2001 census only south Carrick in historic Galloway had a Gaelic speaking at over 2% !!
I visited Ludlow the other day which Ian Hislop described as the archetypal Middle England town. A pretty place but with something of the stepford wives about it. Lots of tweed and woolen cardigans without a black or brown face anywhere. I wondered whether anyone bothered to stand against the Tories at the last local elections or if they were given a bye!
Cookie: damn right we should be teaching school children Anglo-Saxon (Old English)! It was the foundation of our culture and allows readers to make the logical cultural progression of the nation: Beowulf, Chaucer, Shakespeare. Much better than teaching kids that snobby, foreign language of Latin!…
134. Could you please remove all the etymologically Latin-derived words from that post please? I find them offensive.
B*gger, I need to re-phrase this…
133. well, considering that it was a LD seat in 2001, I suppose they stood there in locals!
Libdems have councillors in various wards of Bridgnorth DC included in the constituency: Aveley (1), Bridgnorth East (2), Bridgnorth Morfe (2), Broseley East (2), Highley (1), Much Wenlock (1) and Stottesdon (1).
Labour has 1 councillor in Broseley West.
The whole South Shropshire DC is icluded in the constituency and the Lidbems have 14 seats there (+various indies and a Green).
There’ll actually be a byelection for a South Shropshire ward on Sep 14th (a LD seat is vacant)
136. Please, Andrea, there’s no need to let facts get in the way of a stereotype.
127, 129 - I’m prepared to concede that point, then - my knowledge of Scottish linguistic history stops at about the tenth century*, so I’m prepared to believe (though surprised by) the fact that Gaelic was spoken in the south-west. Lets agree that Gaelic spread from it’s base in the west to other areas such as the south-west after about the ninth century but then at some point began to die out. Fascinating!
134 - Mark - quite agree about Anglo-Saxon being both more interesting and relevant to modern English than Latin - Germanic culture has been unfairly maligned over the centuries as inferior to Latin. I’m not sure though that I’d go as far as teaching IN Anglo-Saxon, or treating it the same as French or German.
*This makes it sound like I’m a student of the matter, which is far from the case - I just happen to have read a couple of books about Scottish history.
I believe that Glasgow has around 6,000 Gaelic speaker - not all incomers. According to the census 1% of Glasgow’s population has some ability in Gaelic - for Edinburgh it is 0.7% - around 3,000 people.
Not sure there is much evidence of Bearsden as the ‘Gaelic capital’ of the central belt - just 0.83% of its 108,000 people have knowledge of Gaelic.
Max - incidently there are more than 300 Gaelic speakers in the Borders.
Interesting tables at:
http://www.scrol.gov.uk/scrol/analyser/analyser?actionName=choose-topic-and-table
The bigger point about whether Gaelic is a true Scottish language or not is that it’s basically all we got left and it used to be (even in living memory) much wider spread than it is now. I remember the death of the last native Gaelic speaker on Deeside when I was a student at Aberdeen in the 1980s.
134 - When I was doing my O levels, the English Literature exam always included a medieval English text, either Beowolf or one of the Canterbury Tales.
139 - that should of course be ‘just 0.83% of East Dunbartonshire’s 108,000 people…’
138 Cookie. It’s no surprise that Gaelic was widely spoken in south west Scotland as the language derived from Old Irish and spread during the Kingdom of Dal Riata (Ulster and West Scotland) Also placenames in the Rhins of Galloway indicate that Gaelic was present as early as the late 4th Century.
140. Oops. Beowulf is not ‘medieval’. It dates from the eighth century (probably) and is in Old English, unintelligible to modern readers. The Canterbury tales were written in Middle English in the 14th century, and are largely intelligible.
Either would probably frazzle today’s GCSE candidates though.
Conservative was second at Ayr!
sorry - at Yarmouth
143 I was shocked to see “translations” of Chaucer offered in A level English classes. in America, they “translate” Shakespeare.
145 - Prelude to the next GE? Conservative losing here…
I find Chaucer pretty hard going in the original. But Shakespearean English is very easy to follow.
146 Commentator. Does the American translation of Shakespeare comes with fries and mayo ??
148. I once read Hamlet in English, but I don’t know if it was a “translation” or the original version.
I think this is better than all-women short lists. After all it won’t force associations to take women, but encourage more to give them a chance. The all-women lists are a bad idea in my opinion.
snowflake5
“Blair is our JFK”
Unfortunately he wasn’t assassinated after the 2001 victory, and he went on to forever damage his reputation. He could have been remembered for some great election victories, but now he’ll just be the prat who sent us off to war because he wanted to be an “international statesman” and have himself a nice legacy, plus perhaps a statue.