Is this the sight we’ll see after the General Election?
August 22nd, 2006
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Tories take record 9% lead with ICM
After a 24 hours which has seen biting criticism from inside his party at the plans to increase the number of women Tory MPs the ICM Guardian poll for August is out this morning and shows that his party in in a position where it could just have a working majority after the next election.
The headline figures with changes on last month are CON 40% (+1): LAB 31% (-4): LDEM 22% (+5). So the main driver of the change has been a big switch from Labour to the Lib Dems with the Tory share advancing one point. But that small increase takes Cameron’s party above the 40% mark for the first time in an ICM poll since 1992.
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The new leader’s relationship with parts of his party is such that you almost think that the people who will be most upset by today’s numbers will be the hard-liners who daily vent their anger at ConservativeHome.
For David Cameron this survey, from the pollster which has traditionally shown lower Tory numbers, will provide reinforcement as he seeks to answer the growing band of critics of his change programme. They might not like the direction that Cameron is taking them but they cannot argue with the numbers.
Labour’s 31% share is, according to the paper, at a 19 year low and could not have come at a worse time for Tony Blair as he plans his return from his Caribbean holiday. Of all the monthly polls ICM is probably the one taken the most seriously and these figures will provide more ammunition for those who want a change at Number 10 now.
For Ming Campbell the poll movement to the Lib Dems will reinforce his position ahead of next month’s party conference. There’s little doubt that the Lebanon war has played a big part in shaping opinion and the Lib Dem leader’s surefootedness on this and other foreign policy issues is holding him in good stead.
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A factor which will impact on left of centre politics over the next few weeks is that the Guardian takes its own poll as almost gospel and hardly ever acknowledges any other pollsters or even other surveys from ICM. Its coverage, especially on the Labour leadership, as we enter conference season is likely to be shaped by these figures.
All the UK political betting markets might be affected including the General Election ones, the Blair departure date and who will be Labour leader.
Mike Smithson
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This is great news for Labour because it shows the damage that Blair is doing to the party by staying. He cannot last much longer and when Gordon replaces him these polls will be reversed.
We are one step closer to Gordon Brown’s premiership. Rejoice.
Flash - One would almost think that Tony Blair knows the damage that he is doing his own party and is doing it deliberately, as a kind of revenge for having to promise to step down as Prime Minister.
As for your enthusiasm for a Gordon Brown Premiership - be careful what you ask for. He may be great, or he may be awful, but NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE. I admire your optimism, but be prepared for a bitter disappointment, just in case.
Interesting article Mike, but again, it’s just one poll. Although the trend is getting better, (or worse for Labour) it is only one poll. The Lib Dem score is interesting. Potentially worrying for us, and in some places could certainly mean some churn in seats.
Flash, are you conveniently skipping over the polls that consistently show that David Cameron’s Conservatives get a higher percentage if Gordon Brown is PM? OK the Labour score would go up a bit as well, but with GB as PM the Conservative figure is 42+ which is definitely working majority territory.
For fun, these figures in Baxter give us C330 L233 LD55. Ruth Kelly and John Hutton will not like these figures, and neither will Chris Huhne, although I wonder if he’d be overly concerned given the difficulty other parties have in shifting Limpit Democrats.
I’m not sure the stuff about the women shortlists will have filtered through to the public yet. It was only officially sent out by CCHQ this morning in a Campaign Bulletin to all Association Offices, Association Chairmen, MP’s and elected members, etc. Although there has been some criticism, and interestingly whatever rubbish the Mail On Sunday is running at the moment on DC has penetrated - my Mum came out this afternoon with a diatribe about him not caring about Inheritance Tax and being a clone of Tony Blair. Mind you she also admitted she’s still gonna vote for him, because she’s gonna vote Conservative whatever happens. So actually we don’t need to worry TOO much about her vote, and we can concentrate our resources on those that might vote for us in 2009 but DIDN’T in 2005/2001/1997.
But some more concrete policies will be needed from the Policy Challenges in the near future.
3 That’s what comes of posting when absolutely knackered! Last paragraph should have said that I didn’t think, unless they took the poll this afternoon, what DC wants to do with the Parliamentary Selection will have had any effect on this as very few people will know (indeed even fewer knew about this three days ago!)
In the absence of any blinding Tory initiatives, this is more likely to reflect voter dissatisfaction with Labour, perhaps partly over the Middle East but also, for many people, money is becoming tight. Interesting that there is no apparent Reid-bounce for Labour as the Home Secretary was all over the box ensuring our safety. Is this poll the kiss of death for Dr Reid’s leadership asperations?
I had to smile at your comment about ConservativeHome Mike.Judging from some of the posts there yesterday in response to the “A-list” changes, it does look as if some of the people most upset by the best poll lead for aeons will be the party’s own “supporters”. It’s a funny old world (as a former tory leader once said).
Not surprisingly, as a Lib Dem, I’m encouraged by this 5 point jump. I like to think this is a sign that the policy initiatives and improved media operation are having effect - not just the impact of the Lebanon. However, it’s only one poll, so I’m not getting over-excited.
I’m more excited by the upbeat mood amongst activists and strong stuff coming out on policy (not just the Tax Commission). Am very much looking forward to a week by the seaside in September!
5. If you’re right and it’s down to the economy then Reid’s chances are still as good as they were before, as these figures will recur in future months’ surveys. Reid’s personal rating is way above Brown’s (and Blair’s), which can only be in his favour - though how a Reid-led Labour would poll against other parties is not a question that has been asked yet.
To address the topic slightly more directly, when Cameron was campaigning for the leadership his badge was the slogan ‘change to win’ set against a mini bar chart showing two blocks - one at 33% and one at 43%. He will know that the current position is good progress, but nowhere near the final destination - especially as there’ll need to be a bigger lead before Labour inevitably pulls some support back in the immediate run-up to the next election.
6. I think you will see ConHome comments become more agreeable as the sheer size of the turnaround in Tory fortunes sinks in.
Mike, two questions. What would be the size of the lead in You Gov with the weighting correct? IIRC you say that ICM understates the Tories? And second are there any of the m/f voter breakdown or other internals?
And Blair isn’t going anywhere. I don’t know why we even discuss it.
The Guardian story makes cheering reading:
“The rating is worse than Labour achieved at the 1987 or 1992 elections and worse than almost every poll result under Neil Kinnock and John Smith’s leadership.”
OK, never mind my earlier question. I see there is this interesting snippet
“Women are still more likely than men to back Labour, although both groups now show strong Tory leads.”
That is a reversal of previous internals isn’t it, showing stronger Tory support among women? But men had been giving Labour the lead. As cameron had sustained leads with women for some time, a lead with men now is very welcome news and I would say his hard line on Islamist terrorists and deportations has registered with male voters.
Please noooooo!!!!
Immigration will become an increasingly important issue the nearer we get to the next election. This is somewhere the Tories could score big time if they come up with a firm but fair scheme.
9 - One would hope so Commentator but as mentioned above I can’t help feeling this will be of great dissapointment to some of our friends on ConHome.
I’m surprised our vote share has increased as I thought Labour may have slightly edged up following the way in which John Reid handeled the recent arrests.
No doubt it will also come as a great surprise to ‘I hate Dave’ gang on this site who keep telling us it’ll all fall apart sometime soon!
This poll suggests that last month’s ICM poll may have been a rogue as regards the LD share.
It’s interesting and not what many here expected. roger could on reflection be right that the Lab->Lib shift is a lot about dissatisfaction over Lebanon. But I also think we need to be aware of a difference between pundits and the general public. when there’s a big problem, such as the alleged terrorist plot, pundits tend to think, “People seem impressed by the Minister dealing with it and are more likely to vote for the Gvoernment”.
In this case, polls suggest that people were indeed favourably impressed by John Reid’s handling of the issue. But their main feeling is “Hmm, it’s not good news that there are more terrorists trying to kill me.” And if you see a lot about bad news you are less, not more, likely to vote for the Government, even if they seem to be dealing with it competently.
The more politically-involved will flesh that out with detailed analysis, blaming Iraq or immigration or something else. But lots of people will simply feel that if things are going badly in some way, they’re more likely to vote for a change.
The only consolation I can suggest is that movement on the Lab-Lib axis has over recent years been much more common than Lab-Con or Lib-Con movement, and I think there’s a reasonable chance of getting most of them back where it counts in the marginals. But 40% is a good Tory level and we shouldn’t quibble about it.
The strawman does well in a straw poll
Nobody has mentioned interest rates going up - Gordo getting the blame ?
6 - Commentator,in fairness, it is heartening to note the prominence given to our 9% lead on Conservative Home.
19 Their surveys show a much wider readership than the few who regularly host heartily support Cameron - I believe 75% or more. The posters there do not speak for the site’s whole readership by any means.
As I said yesterday most Conservative activists I know are sick of the powerlessness of opposition.
20 - that’s “post”, not “host”.
If it wasn’t my near certainty that voters hands will freeze before giving the Tories a majority at the next election this would be worrying.
Labour are deservedly in a mess and it’s all of Blairs making. Having told the world he and George are 100% behind Israels destruction of Lebanon -he packs his bags and takes a holiday in Barbados.
When the fruits of his neo-con inspired foreign policy comes home to roost in the form of the biggest terrorist threat ever seen-he puts his sunglasses on and orders another Pina Colada.
Yo Blair! Go. Please!
This is quite a surprising poll. As far as I was aware, the Lib Dems policy announcements have made a very low impact as they’ve been swallowed up by the terrorist hoo-hah. Can anyone seriously recall what the Tax Commission’s proposals were? They were announced on the same day as the terror raids.
As for the Lib Dems policy on Lebanon, it has hardly been well publicised, if it is allegedly “pro-Lebanon”, I assume most people haven’t seen the equivocal and crypticly coded interview Ming gave to Sky News on Sunday. So little meat of real opposition to the conflict. Too much, “it is all a failure of communication” rather than “it is a failure of policy”.
Frankly the Lib Dems are not good enough at the moment, and unfortunately this poll is going to tell them the reverse. I would be sticking my cash on an unlikely Tory majority - however wafer thin - for the next GE. If I had any, that is…
According to the Guardian/ICM survey, Labour seem to have lost the trust of their voters. 65% of Labour voters believe that their foreign policy has made us less safe. Only 26% of Labour supporters trust that the Govt is telling the truth. The gap between the Govt and its own supporters has grown and that has more to do with Labour’s problems than the actions of the other 2 parties.
However is the window for the removal of Blair by the end of 2006 rapidly closing because any action has to happen before the Manchester Conference 24-28th September?
Is this the time that Gordon goes in and warns Tony that he will get a very hostile reception at labour’s own Conference unless he announces he will stand down before it? Tony can then go to the Conference and receive standing ovations rather than boos.
For betting folk, time is running out on 2006. Either Tony announces he is off in the next 4 weeks or all 2006 bets will depend on Inspector Knacker.
20. Indeed. Conservative home’s comments threads are an entertaining read for connoisseurs of ranting, but that’s all.
22&23 - I’m still not at all convinced of a Tory majority in 2009. There remains too big a mountain to climb. It involves regaining seats where we don’t have much of a campaigning base and where a good national swing may not be enough to tip the balance against a well dug in incumbent MP.
25 - I would particularly recommend the work of Christina Speight.
2. “One would almost think that Tony Blair knows the damage that he is doing his own party and is doing it deliberately, as a kind of revenge for having to promise to step down as Prime Minister”
I don’t think he does realise. People are never objective about themselves, and you have to take into account that he likes being PM, and is reluctant to give it up. From accounts I’ve read which quote those close to him, he’s under the impression his travails are down to pledging not to run again! He’s in denial and some people will have to gently break it to him. Perhaps us party members should start writing him letters.
I also don’t think this poll is about Lebanon, it was done after the ceasefire, and the poll during the fighting showed no movement. I think this poll is about terror. Specifically, some people didn’t believe there was a threat to the airports, and others were reminded that the terror is out there (which normally people don’t dwell on). We’ll have to see if the charges brought yesterday to the 11 arrested will make any difference.
Eddie - posts like yours tell me we’re definitely headed in the right direction!
Perhaps not surprisingly, I can well recall the outcome of the Tax Commission report - and indeed some of the key messages have been going out on Focuses across my patch over the last few weeks
27 Max. the ‘e’ in her name is surely a mistake !
I think you are also correct to be cautious about a Baxter translation of the ICM figures. Some of the gains past 60-70 will take some managing. One might see a situation where the Tories rack up huge majorities in safe seats and flatter to deceive in the marginals. Nevertheless very decent poll for both the Tories and the Lib Dems.
Ben @ 3,
Limpit Democrats? Limpid Democrats? Lembit Democrats? … Ah Limpet Democrats
Snowflakes. The public always seem to register protests to pollsters a month or so after the event. I can’t imagine a single Muslim would have told ICM that they were voting Labour and not many Guardian/Indepependent readers . In Yesterdays Guardian they had figures for the coverage; Both these papers gave it more coverage than any other story for three weeks. In the Guardians case it was front page news I think every day.
Considering that 51% don’t believe the government is telling the whole truth about the terror threat, how can Reid’s ratings have gone up considering that if someone is lying, the Home Secretary would be one of the main “suspects”?
I’d always assumed that when Brown took over Labour would immediately assume a lead. Nine points-and possibly climbing- is becoming a mountain. I really think that if Labour wait for a year to remove Blair the momentum of the ‘Tory ship’ might be too difficult to turn around
Morning all :). Rather like the sandcastle left on the beach below the high-water mark, this poll looks impressive but may well mean nothing before too long.
As I suspected, the July figure looks like an outlier for the LDs and this is, I suspect, a little on the high side but we’ll see.
We are probably three years from the next election but a 9-point lead for the Conservatives is impressive and I won’t deny that. Of course, Labour led by 24 points in the spring of 1990 so a lead now, however large, is no guarantee of future success.
Whether we will come to view the events of the spring and the resignation of Charles Clarke as this Government’s “tipping point” remains to be seen but it is clearly the key political event of the year so far in terms of opinion-forming.
The question for Labour supporters now, as it was for Conservatives in 1990, is whether it is now time to dump one of the most successful leaders the Party has ever had. Like Thatcher, Blair has been brilliantly successful in winning General Elections. Arguably like Thatcher, Blair has overstayed his welcome and is now a liability far more than an asset. The manner of Thatcher’s ousting came to do enormous harm to the Conservatives though it didn’t seem so at the time and there must be a risk of major internal blood-letting should the new leader fail to keep office at the next election.
As others have pointed out, it’s a big ask for the Tories to win the next election outright. I share the view of many on this site who think the most likely outcome is a hung Parliament with the Conservatives narrowly the largest party.
The question then is whether a Conservative minority Government will be able, over an 18-month period, to do enough to convince the electorate that they should be given a full mandate.
34. yup. If the tories continue to poll a 9% lead any talks about a snap GE when the new leader is elected become very weak. If Labour is trailing just by a couple of points, a new leader’s bounce can produce a Lab lead, but being down 9%, a new leader’s bounce can at best level pegging the situation.
snowflakes 28- good post. I think your analysis is right- I think that previous polls have already factored in opposition to the foreign policy- the swing to the LD’s now is the result of terror- people simply do not buy it, they do not believe the government- the telling the truth indicator is key here.
That said these polls are meaningless in relation to predicting the outcome of the next GE. The crucial ones will be 3-6 months post Lab succession.
I think the Blair denial thing though is stretching it- Blair knew he was problem some time ago- getting rid of Milburn, and pulling Brown into the last campaign showed this. It makes no sense to Blair, Brown, and the Lab party for Blair to go in a cloud of hostility. A planned handover (following a energetic leadership battle is still best for all in Lab).
Expect Blair to drop some big hints at conference that this may be his last speech (get appetites going), and the departure timetable to still be based on post May elections- full handover next autumn.
25 Pronounced Spite?
Back from holls to be met by great polling numbers; I am really pleased that an ICM poll has us over 40%.
I said earlier in the year that the test of Camerons impact would be in the polling numbers after the conference season and I am sticking to that view.
Good news for the Lib Dems, too. IIRC this is their highest number since the last GE?
If as seems to be the case that it is foreign affairs that is turning voters off Labour, that begs a question. Will voters at the next general election vote out the government because it doesn’t like its policy on Iraq/Afghanistan/Lebanon? If so that will be unique, by and large foreign policy does not figure too highly in voters concerns at a GE, bread and butter issues seem to dominate. With three years to go, I wouldn’t rush to judgement, on the basis of polls taken at this time: fools rush in etc.
Wow. 9%. Did anyone see that coming? It has to be a bit of an outlier…right?
Crikey.
19. Re Camerons’ fans against ConHome’s critics.
1) You’ll always have critics in the party (even with a 10% lead), get used of it. It was the same for Labour in the 90’s when Blair was changing the party and enjoying big poll leads. You’re going to have your “Bob Marshall-Andrews” somehow!
2) Are you already morphing into New Labour’s dislike for critical voices?! Actually I suppose it’s common for all parties’s majority wings to try to shut the “minority” up.
3) Are Commentator and Blue2Win your Hazel Blears and Chris Bryant?!
I’m in Spain, the sun’s shining, the ladies are sunbathing, the swallows are wheeling around the conquistador church, and when I went online this morning I found that the Tory poll rating was the same as the temperature here in Celsius. A nice, fat FORTY!
Y viva el Portillista!
The evidence is that when Labour become really unpopular the tories push 40% . They even did it once during IDS’s reign. My guess is that the Cameron effect is nil and the Blair effect is all.
32. roger - the Guardian also went heavily with the idea that the terror threat was somehow manufactured/not real. They gave space to a number of columnists pushing this thesis. Here’s a small sample:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1852836,00.html
Craig Murray : “Be sceptical. Be very, very sceptical.”
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/holly_finch/2006/08/holly_finch.html
Holly Finch: “Government scaremongering over the terror threat plays into our opponents’ hands.”
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/dave_hill/2006/08/fear_and_disbelief.html
Dave Hill: “I am, for instance, strongly inclined to disbelieve any rhetoric spouted by that shameless red top-pleaser John Reid, and the frightening thing for Britain is that I doubt this is a minority view. Indeed, such is my disbelief in our government’s good faith where security is concerned that I’m quite ready to believe reports here and elsewhere that British security chiefs would sooner have waited for any bomb plot to have unfolded further before making arrests (and thereby strengthened their chances of getting convictions) but went in early because that’s what their edgier American counterparts wanted.”
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/azzam_tamimi/2006/08/i_bet_you_it_will_turn_to_be_a.html
“I bet it turns out to be a hoax.”
And many more. It’s fashionable in Guardianista land to pretend that the terror threat is just about the govt wanting to act tough/persecute muslims, depending on the particular slant the writer wants to take. And 7/7 and 21/7 are never mentioned at all, as they give lie to that thesis (though any day now, I expect to see an article trying to claim those too were hoaxes and didn’t really happen).
I’m not sure what the govt can do to counter this.
34- the public are fickle beasts Roger- Labour must be able to negotiate poor poll ratings and think strategically (instead of reactively). A few observations though;
-there is no public longing to bring back the Tories
-brand Cameron is rapidly losing his sheen- I think over coming months he will increasingly be characterised as a figure of fun (Channel 4 news last night)
-Labour will have a leadership contest which will provide a massive amount of positive media interest (making the Tories contest akin to a Vicar of Dibley vote)
-there will be a post leadership election bounce
-after Blair goes the public will think that the govt has changed- so no need to boot them out in the polls
Blair and Brown above all else are strategists. Their fortunes are still inextricably linked together
46.”-Labour will have a leadership contest which will provide a massive amount of positive media interest (making the Tories contest akin to a Vicar of Dibley vote)”
I suppose it depends on who’s running.
For ex I think that Huhne’s presence in the race made the Libdem’s leadership contest much more interesting than a Ming/Hughes fight.
Can Labour afford a leadership contest?
39 Marcus. The IPOS/Mori for the FT on 24/07 had the Lib Dems @ 24%.
I think YouGov are due to report this week, so we’ll soon see if this ICM is in accord.
48. Do you mean in terms of money?
I have to say that, in the midst of the terror business, I am beginning to understand the appeal of the Lib Dems for the first time. I think people do actually want an intelligent, middle-class Liberal response to some of the issues at stake in society today, and the swing from Lab to Lib indicate that Labour are beginning to look like headless chickens about all the great issues of our age, rather than conveying the principled stance that Blair personally would have us believe. Whether the Libs can maintain this is anyone’s guess and will be made more difficult by the lack of charismatic leadership, but it could be done.
On the subject of the poll, foreign policy or terrorism may well be responsible for why people are not voting Labour; but they are not why people seem to be thinking about voting Conservative. The image change needed to maintain polls, a couple now on ICM, at the 40% level, is a significant achievement and pays tribute both to the strengths of the Cameron team, as well as the vacuousness of the general public. To the doubters about 2009 I say: bring it on!
45-Snowflakes- the govt are in a tricky position
-the British public (thankfully) are a resilient lot- 7/7 is a distant memory, we lived with the IRA for many years and we are not going to change our behaviour now;
-perversly the govt’s approval ratings now will only rise following a successful (unfoiled) attack. Foiling attacks now breeds the kind of scepticism within the press and wider public you refer to here, especially if the act of foiling results in widespread public inconvenience.
C’est la vie. But Lab must share some of the responsibiltiy for influencing public reactions in this way- the dross it spread about WMD and Iraq will leave a lasting stain on the credibility of the govt and intelligence services, and rightly so.
“But that small increase takes Cameron’s party above the 40% mark for the first time in an ICM poll since 1992.”
Since when is 40% above 40%?
44. Roger: “The evidence is that when Labour become really unpopular the tories push 40% . They even did it once during IDS’s reign.”
Er … when?
Fact is they are all w*nkers, left/right, Labour/Tory/Lib Dem, Telegraph/Guardian, Islamic loons/Israelis/Yanks, w*nkers the lot of em, and it’s the ordinary people who suffer because of it.
42 - Andrea I’m afraid I think ConHome is rather more corrosive than that. It pertains to be the voice of the membership (which it isn’t) whilst at the same time pushing an agenda of it’s own.
It increasingly seems to me that the editors of that site see that the support of posters on the site translates into support across the whole membership for the position they take. This is then treated as a confrontation between the whole of the grass roots and Central Office when no such widespread conflict exists.
More worryingly the media treat it as the voice of the membership which leads to ridiculous statements about Jack W being a Tory activist!
Hazel Blears, Andrea? That is worse than being accused of being the Wife of Bath!
I have no problem with dissenting voices but they should be recognised for the minority they are.
Andrea
To attract press interest the lab leadership contest must be that a contest, and the increase in Reid’s capital will hopefully now create this (although I am sure that many Lab people were genuinely expecting better short term poll ratings because of Reid- so his star may now be falling as quickly as it has risen).
Also, the prize is slightly different- a contest for PM is slightly more interesting than that for a fringe UK political party. Labour should have the ability to plan for an exciting race for such a prize
Want a predictions?
If GB takes over, Labours poll ratings will drop even lower (after a brief bounce).
Where is he anyway? - not a peep for weeks, maybe months. In fact, when was he last on the box or radio?
Give me reasons why this won’t be the case…
Matt.
Blair and Brown above all else are strategists. Their fortunes are still inextricably linked together.
Blair’s fortune is bound up in holding on long enough to give him lots to talk about on the rubber chicken circuit. It is certainly not to help the man who made his life more difficult and who he believes is psychologically flawed.
I agree with nearly everything Tyson except that this can be turned round at will. Through I’m sure Cameron’s flaws will become apparent once a party really gets on the slide it can be difficult to rescue. At the moment It’s still totally in the governments hands to change things in their favour. By next year I’m not so sure.
Snowflakes. It is dawning on people that we are in the center of this storm because of some very bad calls by the PM. If he had acted for ‘good’ I’m sure the public would have applauded the actions of the security forces in dealing with the whirlwind this caused as they did in Afghanistan.
But when it’s seen as nothing more than the comical desire to stand shoulder to shoulder with the most powerful man in the world whose policies are supported by only a tiny clique of fanatical far right Conservatives-then not only does he not get credit for stopping the terrorists but he gets blamed for creating them. And for those who forgot how malign his foreign policy was, Lebanon arrived to show them
Anatole. Sept 2000.
57. Commentator, oh, sorry. I didn’t want to offend (in that case I would have said Tessa Jowell instead of Hazel Blears)
58. Tyson, if Reid is elected Labour leader, I think Ming will become my favourite main party’ leader. Not that I like Ming, but I don’t dislike him either (pretty indifferent to him).
I don’t know. I think what Labour really needs is a GB coronation. Some eye-gouging leadership election where all the skeletons come tumbling out of the closet and everyone gets smeared isn’t the ticket to electoral success.
50. Andrea - yes. They’ve just sold their HQ, are seeking Taxpayer funding to cover conference secirity costs, have Scots & Welsh elections coming up. Is an expensive & time consuming leadership election, with most probably a win for Brown something the Party wants to spend cash on?
62. Sorry to be a pedant, but that wasn’t under IDS then, was it? Also, the implication of your posting was that the Tories had managed it several times, whenever the government was unpopular. However in the whole perdio between April 1993 and December 2005, the fuel crisis was the only time the Tories had gone above 35%. If it only happened once, I don’t think you can reasonably say it constitutes “evidence” of a trend.
61. You are right Blair has made some bad calls. But the terror threat is separate to that. Germany foiled a threat to their railways yesterday, and they weren’t involved in Iraq - but it wasn’t given much play in the news, perhaps because it spoils the thesis that everything is the fault of Blair. Some things are his fault, but some things are not.
62. IDS was not leader in Sep 2000.
56 Max. How very dare you !!
The London Evening Standard said I was a Conservative activist, so it must be true !! ….. quite what I was being active in the Tory doing is anyones guess.
re 54 & 62. In September 2000 William Hague was the Tory leader not IDS and the ICM poll Tory poll share hit 38%. This was primarily driven by the petrol crisis that was gripping the country at the time and Labour recovered very quickly.
The detailed figures are out on the ICM website . The actual change in Conservative support is from 39.494 % in July to 40.437 % in August . Still studying the detailed results but Conservatives are now LESS popular amongst women than men . Labour support is still holding up best in the North and the biggest increase in LibDem support is in the 25-34 age group and in the South of England with LibDem support up 10% and Conservative support DOWN in the South by 4% .
Some of these changes are based on fairly small subsets and therefore not statistically significant .
63- Andrea- personally cannot stand Reid myself- but I would like to see a good leadership contest for Lab.
Second, Ming is by far my favourite political leader. I have been a Ming fan for many years. For me it is a real shame that the leadesrhip has come so late, and people have ridiculed him for his age.
70- Mike wasn’t there a YouGov 40-35% poll lead for IDS around August/September 03 ?
Roger- you are not onto a winner on this one. There is a clear trend in Cameron poll ratings that showed him initially levelling with Lab and now steadily pulling ahead. I think the data is pretty compelling here.
Best to keep with the angle that these polls are meaningless at the moment. I can tell you one thing David Cameron is no Tony Blair!!!
The main shift in this poll is clearly Lab to LibDem.
On that basis, the Tories are not really advancing into the 50+ aggregate enjoyed by those two parties. Surely therefore even on these polling figures the Tories have cause to worry that any advances they make will be killed off by a pact between Lib and Lab.
The fact is, 55%+ of voters in this country seem to consistently support parties that can be described as “left” or “centre-left” (Labour, LibDem, Green, ScotNats, Plaid, Respect, various fringe loons). That doesn’t mean the Tories can never govern, thanks to the FPTP system. However, it does make things more difficult and does mean that even obtaining 40% of the vote does not constitute “sweeping all before them”. I would argue that Labour, with its 30-something vote share in 2005, at least has the acquiesence of the public, if not a firm mandate, because the vast majority of voters who made up the other 20-something per cent of the left/centre left vote prefer them to the Tories.
Another bogus opinion poll trying to tell us that the Useless Tories will soon be strutting and preening around Number Ten Downing Street. This polling organisation spoke to 1,007 people, yet the population of Great Britain is 59,834,300. Therefore, by my calculation, this opinion poll shows that 59,833,293 people have not said they would vote Tory. Hardly the ringing endorsement of Princess Dave that the silly little children around him are desperate for us to believe.
64- Kevin that is the bit about Lab planning and playing things properly. The media exposure for a hard fought contest would be phenomenal- Labour must take this opportunity (even if it means higher debt). It would provide Lab to present as both a rejuvenated and changed party. A bit of dirty washing in public would help fuel the interest.
A damp squib coronation would give the effect that nothing has changed
I’m not convinced by the solidity of the poll numbers at the moment all. Not that they are not correct in showing the Tories in a decent lead but I think they will swing a reasonable amount up and down making life a touch difficult for punters, though adding opportunities to open and close spreads for profit. I think what they dont reflect is that, come next election there will be a, ‘Time for a change sentiment’ that the polls will not accurately pick up on until literally right before the election.
This is different from the anger and rage sentiment that seems to be driving much of Labour’s fall in the polls. If it was a person it would be the previous Labour/Tory supporter for the last few elections stepping out of the polling office in front of an interviewer saying ‘well I just felt it was time for a change, they have had their run’. No dramatics, no damning rants, just a kind of shrug of the shoulders feel about it. The rage & anger responses can shift back and forth fairly dramatically thus I’m reckoning leading to several point shifts in the polls for each party for some time to come.
Interesting to hear Trevor Kavanagh on the radio this morning saying once Brown takes over saying at cabinet level it will be control freakery of the highest order from No.10.
75 Please shut up, Verity; you have few ideas, and you are not wanted here.
71- How can Tory support be down 4% in the South, if Labour are holding up in the North? Where are all the extra Tory votes coming from?
73 I think the Conservatives’ best rating under IDS was 38% according to Yougov and MORI. A couple of Yougov polls gave the Conservatives 40% under Michael Howard.
56: Yes, I’m deeply concerned that the media are taking any old comment on the Conservative Home chat room and presenting it as though it were unquestionably posted by a Conservative activist. Don’t these people realize that one can assume all sorts of false identities on an internet discussion site?
79 Conservative support was up a little in the North and Midlands . Labour support was down a little in the North but are still in a clear lead . The changes quoted were relative to the July figures and not to the last GE . Don’t forget the subsets are smaller and M of E will be higher and month to month changes will be less statistically significant .
Great to see this poll. Everything on target now.The Libdem leader likely to be staying for a while yet and our man well on his way to Downing Street.
75- Desperate stuff from a sore loser.
I see Princess Dave’s underlings are already attempting to quell dissent. Sadly for them I shall not be silenced.
82. They’ve the SNP vote down a lot in the North (but they had it up a lot in July), but we’re talking about small numbers.
I love the fact thatin July they found just female Plaid voters, now just male.
62/70/73/80/etc,etc:
Polls during the 2001-2005 Parliament - the Tories hit 40% twice in 2004, both under Michael Howard (onviously) and both in YouGov polls.
71. I thought the voting intention figures were interesting. 64% of Conservatives were certain to vote. Only 49% of Labour people were certain to vote and 56% of Lib Dems. We’re going to have to make a massive effort to get the vote out.
Mark @ 74: Remember that the tables on ICM’s website are prior to their topline adjustment (as it says in big capitals at the top of the table!), hence if you work out percentages they do not necessarily match the headline figures.
Some truly enjoyable mewling and puking from Labour commenters. As far as I can tall the position they are taking on these polls is:
1. It’s only a poll of 1000 people - doesn’t matter because the population of Britain is actually 56 million.
2. It’s a deceptive and meaningless poll - the Tories did just as well under IDS - and look what happened to him!
3. The Tories aren’t over 40% anyway, they’re only just on 40% so there.
4. It’s all Blair’s fault, as soon as we get Brown in everyone will stop hating us, yah boo sucks.
5. Actually the main movement is to the Lib dems so we won’t suffer so much in the marginals and we’ll still win, ahem.
6 [my favourite] Er if you look at it the British people still poll mainly for left wing parties so erm we still kind of have the “acquiescence” of the British people…
‘acquiescence’?
Taking these fatuous responses together I think we can safely conclude that the Labour party is now in deep, deep doo-doo.
This pretty much shows last months ICM as being the outlier, lib dem support relatively high, government support descending, what’s not to like?
All this wishful thinking about Brown and this being about terror is completely missing the point. Reid played politics at a time when people were scared and/or inconvenienced, Labour spin to get their own way and it just doesn’t wash anymore. The way that the labour diehards have spun the poll on here today is a case in point. Anything bad is an opportunity and ‘we know the public don’t really mean it’ being the favourites.
With lib dems and labour less than 10% apart this is the time to really try and eat away at the labour support, it’s not easy but a party on the slide is easier to push towards a tipping point and, building on the good results against labour last election, I would hope that many seats, especially in inner cities, are there for the taking. It will mean careful positioning and being relentless with this message though (easier said than done!)
On the subject of conhome, it’s very useful for Cameron, see what the loony fringe want him to do and then do the exact opposite. Result, bye bye loony fringe, hello decent policies!
I’m increasingly sanguine and even relaxed about the prospect of a change of Government. I fear however that not much will change at all. When I consider John Reid’s response to the alleged terrorist plot, I wonder how much different things would have been with David Davis and Chris Grayling up there and I’m forced to concede that it wouldn’t have been different at all.
My fear is that an incoming Cameron Government, possibly as a minority or at best with a small overall majority, will make the same mistakes that Blair did in 1997 and act with too much timidity.
In 1997, Blair either failed to understand or simply didn’t accept that while no one voted Labour to turn the clock back to the 1970s, nor was there a mandate for the status quo. People wanted change and radical action on a number of fronts and the tragedy of the Blair Government is that so little has changed and when one considers transport or the environment in particular, the failure is the greater from a Government with a massive mandate.
If a Government with a majority in three figures isn’t able or willing to be radical, can we expect anything different from a Cameron administration ? Will the new Tory Government be radical on transport or climate change or will they be so fearful to offend core supporters that they will do nothing ?
Labour became, under Mandelson, Blair, Gould and others a machine to win elections. Reading some of the Tory activists on here, I think they also confuse means and ends. Politics isn’t just about beating the other guys and winning elections, it’s about governance and working for the betterment of the country and the people in it. If all you’re interested in is power then you will achieve nothing. Perhaps the key to being successful in office is to take the biggest risks by doing something you think and know is right and court short-term unpopularity in favour of long-term gain.
Indeed, if doing the right thing costs you office, that may still be a price worth paying though I’d love to know if Marcus or Rik would agree.
Chaps, surely “Heter Pitchins” is a troll? Why the responses?
“The London Evening Standard said I was a Conservative activist, so it must be true !! ….. quite what I was being active in the Tory doing is anyone’s guess.” JackW, I thought that it was priceless! It really did highlight Max’s point @56 regarding the poster’s on ConHom being a true reflection of tory grassroots opinion!
I think that ConHom is a valuable resource for online tory grassroots and it does allow more interaction with the leadership than the party website. But the views taken by the editorial team and its regular poster’s are just that, their views. It is not an elected spokesperson for the grassroots, and therefore should not expect to influence the decisions taken by the leadership who were elected.
88 - Beg to differ Anthony if you use the data in Table 2 the percentages do match the headline figures ( Agree with your comments re figures in Table 1 ) .
[89] Quite so - and if Her Majesty were to do Her duty, she’d dismiss Blair, invite Cameron to kiss Her (gloved, I’d imagine)hand and grant him a dissolution. Labour would emulate Inzamam-ul-Haq and refuse to contest the election - I’ll just go and work out the result on Baxter, be back in a minute…
90.”building on the good results against labour last election, I would hope that many seats, especially in inner cities, are there for the taking”
It can also happen the opposite. In some seats where Labour did very badly last time, they could have already reached their tipping point and so they can hold their support better than in seats where they’re still at an high point.
But it’ll probably vary across the country.
“On the subject of conhome, it’s very useful for Cameron, see what the loony fringe want him to do and then do the exact opposite. Result, bye bye loony fringe, hello decent policies! ”
So you’re happy with Labour current politics, right? They’ve ignored those “loony” leftist and done the opposite.
89- Sean T. Excellent post!
The more they try and spin, the more pathetic Labour looks.
Mark. Table 1 is prior to turnout weighting and topline adjustment, table 2 is after turnout weighting, but prior to topline adjustment. At the top of table 2 it says in big capital letters “THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON’T KNOW/REFUSERS”. ICM re-allocate a proportion of don’t knows and refusers according to their vote in 2005, Table 2 is prior to this re-allocation.
The figures do not match anyway. Labour is at 30% in table 2. In table 3, the published figures which include the reallocation, but don’t give any raw numbers, Labour are at 31%.
The key message from this poll is how much trouble Labour are in. I was expecting a surge in their support due to the terror threat.
If as I suspect the Tory “revival” is limited to the midlands and the south of england it means potentially much bigger swings in those areas thus delivering more seats. The Tories dont need to do all that well in the North of England, Wales and Scotland to form a government.
Can I clear up this 40% thing about previous polls.
We have not received 40% with ICM since 1992. We have received 40% once with Yougov under IDS in 2003. However the methodolgy at the time was critised as being too generous to the Conservatives.
What is a troll?
Re Post 81 Francis Maude The person who published the comment under the name of Francis Maude did not supply an email address that indicated that it was actually the Tory chairman.
92 - Anatole, so are you. Glass houses, stones. From Wikipedia -
Anatole Pang/Avi Patchava - Racism
In Michaelmas Term 2004, a candidate for President of OUCA, Anatole Pang, was the subject of an internal disciplinary complaint by the editor of OUCA’s Blueprint newsletter, Junior Officer Avi Patchava. In article submitted for Blueprint, Pang was reported to have written “…the problem with India is its culture…[It is]…stained by two main features which hold the country down continually with little sign of change: democracy and Hinduism.” Contemporaneous reporting of the incident highlighted that Patchava, a candidate for OUCA Secretary, was supporting Pang’s rival in the election for President, and that his complaint did not apparently involve fellow OUCA committee member Robert Thompson, whose contribution to Pang’s submitted article apparently included asserting “The problem with India is the natives. They are ugly, malodorous, fraudulent, and worst of all, brown! I was shocked to discover that there is an entire nation of over a billion people who are brown as the ace of spades.” It is not clear whether any disciplinary action was taken against Thompson[23]. Pang’s remarks were condemned by OUCA’s then President, and the subsequent internal disciplinary committee found him guilty of bringing the society into disrepute[24].
01 - I think that was pretty obvious Mike!
(DC - a troll is someone who says something they don’t believe purely to start an argument, usually under an assumed name. They then stand back and watch the argument that they started).
My thoughts on this poll as a new poster and inactive Labour member are that:
- It already feels like Blair is “working his notice”, his reaction to the terror plot was disastrous. Can anyone imagine Blair pre-2005 not grabbing the first flight back to London for a press conference to show the world he was in charge? Also contrasts of image with Blair frolicing in the carribbean while families with kids have to cancel/delay their holidays was not a good image to present to the public.
- I agree with the comments that the Cameron boost is down to a dissatisfaction with Blair rather than a pro-Cameron movement, the danger is that unless Blair goes soon those who have been saying they’ll vote Conservative may keep their word.
- I am increasingly convinced that Brown should not be Labour leader when Blair goes. He is Blair approved (at least in the public conciousness) and I don’t think he will give enough of a change to have a cleansing Major-style effect. However, Reid is far too pitbull like to be able to win the floating middle class in my view. I increasingly think that Alan Johnson is the best man for the job, he doesn’t suffer the disadvantages of Brown and Reid - mainly the Scottish issue, which unfortunate and petty though it is could cost us a significant number of votes, especially if the next election is as tight as everyone thinks it will be. I would argue Neil Kinnock suffered in 1987 and 1992 because of his Welshness, it may not have cost many votes but it cost enough.
- Finally, I agree with the comment about people feeling less well off, which is mainly down to energy prices and council tax bills - yet no party at least gives acknowledgment to these feelings, I’m surprised the Tories haven’t jumped on this bandwagon yet!
99. I can picture Labour holding a 10% majority in the North, but losing a 15% in the South. It’s more or less what the local elections told with Labour vote holding up in, for ex, some Yorkshire marginals like Wakefield, Halifax and Elmet.
I think the Midlands are the crucial battleground for the tories to win a majority.
101 - you don’t say!
98 Anthony the Labour % in Table 2 is actually 30.42% so any final adjustment to the published figure of 31% must be insignificantly small . I think the detailed figures in Table 2 can be looked at and analysed given the usual caveats of M of E .
101: Surely the clue was in the line “Don’t these people realize that one can assume all sorts of false identities on an internet discussion site”…
ukPaul- strategically the LD’s will place themselves as liberal centre right- this is where their long term fortunes best lie.
seanT (and Tory other tory posters)- you remind me slightly of blinkered Liverpool fans following the recent charity shield victory. Taking a meaningless opinion mid term election poll as anything substantial against a three term winning Govt with a desire for winning, a bit like predicting the outcome of the premiership on the basis of the charity shield. Sure some room for hope, but do not forget who you are up against, and the size of the challenge. And with Brown and Reid Lab have their Schevchenko and Ballack.
Looking at Cameron though the analagy fails- more like Crouch than Gerrard.
101. Francis Maude should try posting on PB.com, he might get a warmer response here than on ConHom. He does seem to be public enemy No1 there! :D:
75 - Heter Pitchins… have you not heard of the concept of sampling? Are you going to dismiss every poll ever unless it is a census of the entire population? Sure there are rogue polls, and this could well be one, but reputable organisations tend to have very few of them, and they won’t be that far off…
09 - lib dems don’t need to bother too much with left or right, a realistic mix of what is effective is better than an ideological straitjacket.
As for being liberal, that puts them in opposition to labour at the moment. Maybe the tories will turn out to be more or less liberal but that’s not clear yet.
107: It could be almost a percent, and in the past it’s been a couple of percent. The point is, there is no point trying to get more accurate percentages than the rounded ones that are published. They are rounded to integers for good reason - with a 3% margin of error it is misleading to give decimal places (if a poll does, it’s normally a good sign that it’s a voodoo poll that no professional pollster has been near). In the case of ICM it’s doubly so, since the figures given in that table are not the final published ones.
I din’t mean to suggest that there’s any harm in looking at the breaks in the unadjusted figures. Those are probably the “final” breaks anyway - I suspect ICM only make the topline adjustment to, well, the topline.
101: Thank you very much for letting us know Mr Smithson. Good to see you keep an eagle eye on those naughty people willing to impersonate high-ranking members of the Conservative Party.
29 - the sad thing is, Oxonian, that I have voted Lib Dem in every election it has been possible for me to do so. I was a member until just a month or two ago, when I gave up because of the consistently poor performance of Ming and his ragtag band of lackeys waiting for the crown to pass to them. I would love for this poll to be right with the Lib Dems on the up, but my gut feeling is that it isn’t, and the Lib Dems need to do much better.
As for my inclination to bet on a Tory majority, I’m simply observing that if it becomes more and more obvious that he’s going to win, the odds are only going to get worse from here on in, so now is the time to get the cash out.
109 - “And with Brown and Reid Lab have their Schevchenko and Ballack.”
Presumably in the sense that most of the country don’t like Chelsea and would rather they didn’t win again?
snowflake5, this logic of: “because a country that didnt take part in Iraq has had terrorist plots means that no terrorist plots were influenced by our foreign policy” is really rather lame. Some Muslin fanatics see ‘The West’ as a single evil entity, most do not. Needless to say, this is the New Labour staple at the moment, I’m sure we’ll hear it more…
Stodge: Blair was radical and he believes he was radical too - it was the first time a Labour government had every implemented Conservative policies. That is his definition of radical, and he uses it every time. He does this entirely without seeing the irony!
Interesting that the Tory lead over Labour is the same size as the Labour lead over LibDem.
104 - Good post KevLar - would also add increase in house prices to a general cost of living increase. All fine for those smug people who bought houses last century, but the next generation is struggling to afford a home, and this makes up an increasing part of the electorate.
(Rant alert] Has anyone seen BBC online’s ‘debt diary’ about a single mother who is edging towards bankruptcy? She has two houses! If she sold the one she doesn’t live in she would be back on an even keel. Yet she doesn’t see this as an option, and complains bitterly when her mortgage providers talk of reposessing the house she can’t afford. It’s people like her who have driven up prices for the rest of us.
(None of the above has to be coherent, it just annoys me.)
There are another 4 years of Labour left to run.
How much more damage can Labour inflict? Why do Labour despise the British? Will Britain ever be able to recover?
Would someone be good enough to post the Scottish/Northern England subset figures, as I’ve been unable to access the figures. Thanks.
118- Yeah I’ve seen it Cookie and I have no sympathy at all. Greedy people living beyond their means and the rest of us end up paying one way or another.
120. Jack, Lab 38%, Con 29%, LD 22%, SNP 6%, Greens 3%, UKIP 1%, Others 1%
OK, I’m quite concerned. I go away for the weekend to my lefty leaning sisters house, and come back to read through comments, only to find myself agreeing with snowflake5. Will the rapprochement last?
I am relieved that I also find myself in agreement with seanT. Now that’s bizarre!
In short, although the trend is still positive, it’s just one poll, and DC has a long way to go.
The strange posters on ConHome are not reflective of the membership at all, I have heard comments recently along the lines of ‘why doesn’t Tim Montgomerie just b*****r off to UKIP if he hates us so much?’
However they are probably reflective of the looney tunes that we need to ignore to be elected.
I was disappointed (and here seanT will disagree) to hear us banging on about Immigration over the weekend. Poorly timed and poorly argued, but I never have been a fan of Damian Green. I wonder whether the message actually went anywhere? It just came across as ‘Nasty Tories talking about Immigration again.’ rather than sensible Conservatives asking questions about whether this country can absorb hundreds of thousands of Romanian and Bulgarian workers…
Andrea, welcome back. Hope you had a good break. We have all had to do our own research, so we’ve missed you!
I think that the message is still more to do with volatility than with trend.
Mind you 5% is well outside the statistical margin of error- so the Lib Dems should be pleased. Thinking aloud, maybe actually dealing with this scare in a more adult way is what the Lib Dems did and what they are getting credit for too.
117- “Interesting that the Tory lead over Labour is the same size as the Labour lead over Libdem”
Maybe if we could push Labour down to the Libdem level we could have … wait for it…
ONE PARTY POLITICS!!!
I was the first on here to forsee the return of two party poltics despite being ridiculed when I first mentioned it. However it is widely accepted now. We are not there yet with One Party Politics but today I provide a sneak insight in to the future…
23 - Regarding immigration - a good way to ameliorate any message being perceived as nasty is to talk about how it is denuding countries of skills and affecting their economies so that, in their interest, it is necessary for all countries to limit the number of people leaving and therefore contributing to this.
122 Andrea. Cheers Andrea.
BTW still no sighting of the “Rutland One” …… I think he’s been chained up in Maude’s dungeon !
ukPaul- the Tories are not liberal- their oppostion to the 90 day detainment, and ID cards was based on pure political expediency. You would be unwise to make any wider political assumptions on the basis of these votes. Infact one look at their shadow home secretary, a proponent of capital punishment, no more said…
The Lab party, unfortunately has been hijacked by iliberal populism in the guise of Mssrs Blair, Blunket and now Reid.
Admittedly, there is a historical authoritarian strand within left wing thinking, but also a strong liberal tradition. I fullly expect this to return with Brown (just because he believes in big government doesn’t make him iliberal- note the Scanadanavian model). There are many, many more liberals in the body of the Lab party than authoritarians. For the Tories the reverse is true.
The LD’s do need to claim a political identity. Britain is basically split between centre left- North, Scotland, Wales, and centre right- south. “What works” politics is meaningless spin.
The LD’s should focus ruthlessly on a brand of politcis that is liberal, anti big government, pro environment, pro european, largely pro business and its time will come- through an implosion and subsequent realignment with one of the two bigger parties. My guess is that this will happen ultimately with the Tories, similar to the 80’s SDP realignment.
126. This is actually a serious concern in Poland at the moment, with both government and the central bank having recently made reference to the problems being caused by the mass exit of young people from the local labour market.
122 The SNP figures are down this month but I think this is more a sampling function as Scotland is not separated out from the North of England . July figures were Lab 39 Con 26 LibDem 19 SNP 10 Others 6 .
123. Ben, thanks.
127. Jack. Maude chaining and whipping Dinky?! How you dare to suggest it.
He’s probably on holiday. He hasn’t updated his site since end of july (not even the “Duncan’s Herald- All lastest news from Alan Duncan’s desk” section)
130. SNP was at 7% in June.
126 ukPaul Thanks, but don’t tell me! Tell Damian Green!!!
110 Francis Maude may get a better reception here (although not from me - w*n*er) but do we really want to attract the looney toons from ConHome over here?
111 Heter Pitchens is a troll. As is his namesake!