Why is Gordon not getting the credit for growth?
August 23rd, 2006
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ICM find that only 37% think he’s created Britain’s economic success
The Guardian publishes more data this morning from its August ICM poll and focuses on the Labour’s record generally, and Gordon Brown’s performance in particular, in running the economy for the past nine and a bit years.
In findings that might have an impact on the Labour succession the pollster records that those surveyed split by 37%-52% on whether they thought Brown had been responsible for Britain’s economic success.
The paper’s Richard Adams describes this as “a blow to supporters of the chancellor who argue that his reputation as the architect of growth will pave his way to No 10. Even among Labour voters fewer than two out of three are willing to give him credit…the findings suggest that Labour may be losing its reputation for economic competence as memories of Black Wednesday and the recession of the early 1990s under John Major fade.”
To another question asking whether respondent’s families are better off since Labour came to power, 55% agreed against 41% who didn’t. The latter included 67% of Labour supporters. Adams also reports that the poll shows that “more than three-quarters, 77%, think people have become more selfish under Labour, while 78% agree that the rich have become richer.”
By 49%-41% the sample agreed that Labour policies had been responsible for “some prosperity” since the party came to power in 1997.On the impact of Gordon Brown’s flagship policy on reducing poverty “only 36% said fewer people now lived in poverty, while 57% disagreed.”
Overall the poll is in line with other recent surveys. Before the General election last year ICM found that Labour had a lead of 24% on the question “Irrespective of how you yourself will vote at the next election, which political party do you think is putting forward the best policies on The economy generally?”.
Today’s data and the changing perceptions of Labour economic performance might partially explain yesterday’s voting intention figures from the survey that had the Tories on 40% - nine points ahead.
Mike Smithson
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I think that the news that a million Poles came here in the last two years will finish Labour.
They said 12,000 ? iirc. It was 450k registered and a Pole representing immigrants estimated one million in my hearing.
Our population is 65 mill making that one percent of our entire national population, from one country, in two years.
Council tax will rise. Services will suffer. Working class bedrock Labour supporters will become unemployed. If the Tories hold Labour to account for this craven Europhile behaviour - even France has limits - I think Labour are finished.
It’s hard to have a reputation for competence when your local hospital is losing wards and services.
GB’s not being given credit for one simple reason: while growth has been continuous under his chancellorship, increases in household income available for discretionary spending have not. Once increases in Council Tax, utility bills, petrol, pensions contributions and mortgage payments have been accounted for, people are not necessarily ‘richer’, and many in particular have not become so on that measure in the last couple of years - the crucial timeframe for forming opinions on this.
I think there might also be a ’softer’ reason why people are loath to give Gordon credit: his personality. He always coems across not only as grumpy & dour but also grudging of anyone else. He just doesn’t seem like a likeable fellow - and so many people’s instinct will be to be equally begrudging of him.
I’m not saying politicians have to be liked (far from it - witness Thatcher). But it’s a lot easier to ‘respect’ a politician who’s ’strong’ and ‘ruthless’ than one who comes across as ‘mean’ and ’spiteful’.
There will still be a significant minority of voters who regard Brown as the great hope for a return to ‘real’ Labour, though I think that body of people is declining. There will be another group (more likely to be swing voters) who will rationally weigh him up against the Tories, with their history of economic incompetance, and decide he’s the better option. But will these people be enough?
I suspect Brown’s record is far more of an asset than the man himself. Hence Labour would be better off with someone else to lead them (eg Johnson or Hutton?) who can milk the record but doesn’t have Brown’s personal baggage.
I wonder whether the unusual aspect of the poll sample that you refer to had any impact. If there were many more Tories than usual then surely the overall proportion thinking well of Gordon will be less?
Also the answers in relation to Gordon were from a group where only 31% had said they were Labour voters so is it any surprise that the figures come out as they have?
The overall problem is that people take having a strong economy for granted. They’ve forgotten what things were like before Gordon became Chancellor.
[3] I don’t know whether David Herdson has any evidence for his assertion that “the last couple of years” is the “crucial” timeframe, but that minor cavil apart, I think he’s spot on. And of course in the U.S.A. it’s been the case for a whole generation. At bottom, the NuLab project relies on “trickle down” economics, and if Fred or anyone else here can post a link to a single piece of evidence that “trickle down” works in practice, it’ll be the first I’ve ever seen.
It’s certainly noticeable that Tory posters on this blog are very keen on throwing things at the government’s economic record (not that I can remember a time when that was a particularly difficult thing to do, whoever was in office) but less forthcoming as to why things would be any better if they themselves were in office. For example, what would they do about all those Poles? I’ll tell you - sweet FA, not least because their employers don’t want to replace fit 20-somethings who are happy to live in hostels with not-so-fit 50-something householders.
GB’s economic effectiveness and competence is completely immaterial for political purposes. But what floating voters (the only relevant group) THINK of his perfomance is clearly very important.
Why isn’t he getting more credit for his part in the continuous period of economic growth since 1992?
Because most people don’t think about pensions, they are normally a non-political issue. However, when the same man has been in charge of the economy for nearly 10 years, there are now quite a lot of people who see GB’s impact on their pensions. And it isn’t good.
The ’staleness’ of TB also rubs off on his chancellor. There is no ‘freshness’ about either of them. That is the main reason why GB as next leader at 2-5 is such poor value.
This is a more general problem for parties in power. If you cock something up, people tend to remember. If you solve it, people forget there was a problem. Since unemployment at the headline rate has been under a million for ages, people now think this is the normal state of affairs, and forget that it was briefly over 3 million and for long periods over 2 million under the Conservatives. Moreover, if there is any relative deterioration over the improved situation (unemployment goes up from 800,000 to 900,000, say), people see it as an absolute deterioration, and forget it got better at all. So most people now consider unemployment not a major political issue, and not one for which anyone deserves any credit.
You see the same pattern in the NHS. Serious commentators, including most Tories here, agree there have been improvements, unsurprisingly given rthe scale of resources put into it, but if you engage 80,000 new nurses and then lay off 5,000 in restructuring, people remember the latter more than the former. Likewise poverty - whatever the debate on relative poverty, it’s factually correct that absolute poverty has declined steeply, especially child poverty (ask the Child Poverty Action Group).
All this partly reflects general cynicism that politicians ever do anything useful, and that’s what to some extent protects parties in power - they generally don’t think the Opposition of the day would do better. This remains, on balance, the case at the moment on the economy, and it’s so important to people that the economy isn’t messed up that there’s a tendency to avoid change unless it’s clearly seriously screwed up.
The footnote suggests that ‘false recall’ is now making more people say they voted Tory than actually did, something that happens when a party is in the lead. This is generally thought by pollsters to be a genuine phenomenon that needs correction, so it’s not an indication that the Tory lead is really bigger.
6. Innocent - not meaning to rise to the bait, but what would you regard as evidence of ‘trickle down’ economics working? I’m not sure I even understand what the terms means.
6. No hard evidence as such, it’s just that people’s experience over the recent past is the most important in forming a judgement on how things are going. I chose a couple of years as the measure because expenditure includes lots of annual items - Christmas, Summer holidays etc - and these are one of the easier ways to compare disposable income with the same time last year. Also that barring major shocks (of which there hasn’t been one since the early ’90s), recent experiences normally count for more than more distant ones
5 - Flash Gordon.
Your OBN for unflinching loyalty to GB is in the post… you always give me a chuchkle before I go off to work to pay almost the highest tax-take in history.
“If there were many more Tories than usual…” - maybe Labour aree now so unpopular that we are seeing the sort of “embarassment” at past-vote recall that used to affect the Tories - ie respondents falsely deny haveing voted for them in 2005?
“Also the answers in relation to Gordon were from a group where only 31% had said they were Labour voters so is it any surprise that the figures come out as they have?” - I suppose we could always select a subset of the sample; maybe only those who will say nice things about Gordon. What a truly daft comment.
“The overall problem is that people take having a strong economy for granted. They’ve forgotten what things were like before Gordon became Chancellor.” - I really don’t have the energy to remind you of the economic reforms that Thatcher introduced in the 80’s (opposed every step of the way by Blair and Brown) that are the fundament of the flexible dynamic econmy we now have. Nor do I really need to remind you that the recession you continuously hark back to was also global in nature and was in the early 90’s. Gordon was handed the most benevolent set of economic indicators of any incoming Chancellor since the first world war - employment falling (with employed up massively), low and stable inflation & interest rates, a much reduced PSBR expected to balance within 2 years, etc. Yawn. GB would have had to be truly incompetent to mess this up… although the massive borrowing, take hikes and pensions raid were a good effort at it.
Let’s be honest for a minute - these are truly dreadful poll numbers for Gordon, and good ones for Tony.
Yesterday’s poll showed the damage TB is doing to Labour and increased the clamour for him to go, whilst today confirms again that GB is not the answer to Labour’s woes with swing voters (you know, the ones you don’t want to ask about Gordon, but who you need to support you if you’re going to win again).
Oh - what *will* they do?
GB always reminds me of the Scotsman’s description of a Calvinist: someone who is worried that someone somewhere might be having fun. Perhaps this is why people are loathe to love GB?
Innocent - Surprised at your use of NuLab ‘trickle down’ economics. I always thought this was associated with Reaganite ‘voodoo’ economics - if you make the rich rich enough, enough will trickle down to the poor - multiplier effect and all that jazz. I would have classified NuLab as ‘ooze out’ economics - if you pour enough money down the drain, eventually the drain will block and something will ooze out.
Is Mr Smithson’s last para evidence of ’shy tories’ returning? If it is becoming sufficiently ‘cool’ to confess to being a tory voter, 9% is the least of NuLab’s worries.
It could be that the reason for higher number of Conservatives than usual in this survey is because it is in the August holiday period and more Labour voters are away on the Costa Del Blackpool .
1,
You always think Labour is finished.
Complacency and your utter conviction, that nothing will change once GB takes over is a dangerous phenomenon, for anyone in opposition, until 2010.
What recent economic benefit to Voters? The effect of these 1m extra people has been two-fold. First it has supppressed the wages in many sectors. John Denham MP says that the daily pay rate for builders in Southampton has halved. Secondly 1m more people has increased the cost of items that have a limited supply such as housing. This is a double whammy on many voters which is causing financial pain and stress.
David Herdson @ 3 is right: it is the pound left in voters’ pockets after the bills have been paid that counts. This is why a Brown-led government (or any government) would do well to scrap plans that will drastically reduce this, like identity cards and the analogue television switch-off.
Brown seems likely to drop ID cards but there is the danger politicians see the switch-off as a chance to auction off bandwidth to raise government money, forgetting it will cost each household hundreds of pounds (at least) plus likely ongoing higher costs.
Hmmmm When I first arrived in the UK (c. 1995) I was immediately struck by the huge numbers of homeless people begging in the streets. I remember thinking “what have I DONE…now where did I put that return ticket?” I was genuinely shocked.
When I returned in 2002 it was really like a different country. The place feels richer, happier and more confident. Whatever the reason, things are definitely better but ou lot don’t seem to notice - maybe I only noticed the change because I wasn’t around while it happened.
And actually, no, I didn’t vote Labour. Too authoritarian for me by half.
Interesting to note that many Conservative newspapers, commentators and some posters here have suddenly decided that the free market and capitalism isn’t so wonderful because the Poles have arrived !
….. it appears that when legal economic migration and immigration collide conservatives pull the nationalist card out first.
Perhaps they should advise Brits to stop buying cheap property in Eastern Europe !
Of course it’s just as well some of these uber little Englanders weren’t in charge in 1940 when Polish pilots played a significant in winning the Battle of Britain …… good heavens we can’t possibly have these Warsaw chappies flying our Spits and Hurricanes over Kent ….. doing our fine English pilots out of a job, let alone the effect on house prices in Biggin Hill !!
The reason Gordon is not getting credit is because Tories keep going round saying the economy is slowing down when it is not. Digby Jones was at it again last night on Newsnight. “The economy is slowing”. No it’s not, it’s accelerating! I don’t know if he was lying deliberately, or he simply hadn’t done his homework and looked at the growth figures for the last three quarters. If it’s the latter, makes you wonder how effective he was as chair of the CBI - how could you do that job and not have the stats on the economy at your fingertips? And he wasn’t challenged as the presenter hadn’t got a clue either. For those unclear - the UK economy is accelerating, the euro-zone economy is accelerating as is the chinese economy. The USA is slowing.
[13] Yes, I know it’s Reaganite by origin, but I think that if it were a slander on NuLab someone would’ve said so by now …
[9] Fair cop, Fred - what indeed counts as evidence that any economic theory works?
GB’s record is on the whole a good one. He is rightly given credit for establishing Labour’s reputation for economic competence. Anybody who can fulfil the role of Chancellor as long as he has without major mishap is bound to command respect and it is why in the City he tends to be seen as a safe pair of hands. The public may not be enthusiastic about him but generally acknowledge that he has done a sound job over a long time. Of course he’s had his failures - pensions and child tax credits spring to mind - but when it comes to the election, it will be the economy [’stupid’] which decides and he will be on solid enough ground there.
As for the dour bit, it’s a bit of a media myth and one that I think is likely to diminish when he changes roles. My little window of insight into this comes from my brother who has occupied a junior position at the Treasury for many years. He’s pretty much apolitical but will occasionally comment on the personal characteristics of the various Chancellors he has seen come and go. His favorite was John Major (surprise, surprise) and least liked was Nigel Lawson. GB rates somewhere in-between - perfectly likeable and sociable without being especially personable in the way JM was. If that’s a fair reflection, and I reckon it is, he should be OK at GE time.
I wouldn’t say labour were nailed on but there is probably a bit of value in the current price.
Every-ones reading the Guardian spin. the figures for Gordon are remarkable. On any “bad” category the most he scores is 52%. If all those who thought he was responsible for our ‘excellent economy’ voted Labour and those who didn’t voted for other parties Labour would be in on a landslide!! It’s the Guardian being mischievous
19. Easy to say from your migrant free provincial outpost J..
Of course those growth figures are from the Office of National Statistics, who are always 100% accurate and are never manipulated for partisan purposes. =)
23.”If all those who thought he was responsible for our ‘excellent economy’ voted Labour and those who didn’t voted for other parties Labour would be in on a landslide!! ”
Unless they all vote for the same other party!
I see that the Sun thinks that a rent boy would do a better job than Ming. I suspect there’re high capable rentboys out there though. Some of them also have Commons experiences….
Ah, one of the men defeated by the Venerable Helen to get reselected prior to the 2005 GE has recently been arrested for vote rigging (not against Helen!). I start to wonder if she was Petersborough CLP’s best choice!
Then I can also wonder how you can be an expert of vote rigging and lose a selection to the VH!
19. Spot on. The new migrants from the EU accession states are to be welcomed. The question we should really be asking is why do we allow nearly 8 million British people of working age to opt out of the labour market.
10. “major shocks (of which there hasn’t been one since the early ’90s)”
You are kidding right? Major world-wide economic shocks since Labour came to power: the Asian financial crisis of 1998, the Russian default, which brought down LTCM and threatened the whole glocal financial system, 9/11 and the world-wide recession that followed, the unusual slowdown in the euro-zone (our biggest market) from 2000-2005. The Iraq war. The commodities bubble.
You haven’t felt the shocks because old Gordy has done his job well and protected the UK economy from them (the first time ever this has been achieved). But just because you haven’t felt them, doesn’t mean they didn’t exist. Another case of people taking the current management for granted.
A small quote from the article. (The guardianm’s getting like the Mail!)
“Voters are divided on whether Britain would have become richer since 1997 regardless of Labour’s policies. While 49% credit Labour’s policies for some prosperity during that period, 41% think the government has made little difference. But confidence in the economy remains high”.
Typical of a story with a distortion. Totally contradicts the headline
28. I think he meant his brother’s favourite one was Major in terms of personality, not efficiency.
24,
Think you are wrong there was recentley in the Isle of Mull, foreign nationals were working in the hotels, and other areas of the economy.
Believe Scotland needs workers in certain sectors of the economy.
So for a story headlined “Voters fail to credit Brown for growth” we read that by 49% to 41% they DO credit Labour’s (Brown) for growth. My post above was cut short.
If any one who goes in to politics, expects people to be grateful to them,they might have chosen the wrong profession! Will Hutton said that he was only given one piece of advice when he was a financial journaist, a famous economist told him, ‘Never underestimate, the ability of the government to F**k up the economy,’ Gordon Brown’s greatest claim to fame is, so far he hasn’t f**ked it up too much. We won’t realise how good he is until George Osborne has been running it for six months, then he’ll look a bloody genius, and the cry will go up, ‘Come back Gordon all is forgiven’,
32. Roger, but some of them they’re crediting Labour and not Brown directly.
Good point Roger 29. Why has the Guardian got it in for Gordon? They’ve all been reading too much of the anti-Gordon propaganda on PBC.
This site is going to have a lot to answer for.
Peter @ 22: I have a couple of friends of friends who are current or former SPADs, and they always say that Brown is very unpersonable and brusque. Granted, they are probably on the Blairite side of the fence so might be being uncharitable towards him.
It doesn’t necessarily matter what he comes across like in person anyway - there’s no guarantee that it’ll translate across the television screen. I’ve always found Michael Howard to be throughly pleasant and charming in person - put him on the telly though and he comes across as the child-catcher.
(Snowflake5 - I think he means Major was the nicest chap, rather than the best chancellor. I’ve never Major, but everyone I know who has tells me that he is very courteous, friendly and just generally decent.)
35. That post has made my day
24 Jamie. Not at all. In the Harpenden area low paid jobs the locals haven’t taken for years are now filled and we can now get a decent trademan at a fair price and not wait until Christmas for the privilege.
In Scotland my small workforce now has a Czech in the team, a vacancy I’ve tried hard to fill for many months. In some parts of rural Scotland de-population remains a problem.
28. I meant within the British economy, so you are partly right but you exaggerate the threat (the collapse of LTCM didn’t threaten global collapse, 9/11 didn’t create a world-wide recession - in fact, the impact on global growth was minimal) and GB’s role in sorting it out. Anyway, you’re sidetracking the main point, which is that many people don’t feel better off.
31. I think there’s a difference to having a few bods work behind the bar to having 15+ to a house in entire streets in Slough to dozens of brickies sleeping rough outside building sites in London.
I think this mass immigration is a temporary problem - like losing jobs to indian call centres was. The message will soon filter back that the Uk is not all its cracked up to be - a bit like the martian in the chewing gum advert..
36. umm, I was disputing D Herdson’s assertion that there had been no major shocks as in economic shocks, no reference to John Major intended.
36.”I have a couple of friends of friends who are current or former SPADs, and they always say that Brown is very unpersonable and brusque. Granted, they are probably on the Blairite side of the fence so might be being uncharitable towards him.”
Isn’t it all a bit subjective? Even in our normal average life we don’t all have the same friends and sympathies. There’s lot of occasions where an acquaintance is found as very personable and friendly by some people and unpersonable and not worthy to spend time with by others.
38. Jack, your posts have suddenly become serious and valid points, lucid and well thought out. This is all very well, but a part of me is missing all the Nu Conservalites / Statistico Party of Milan predictions.
Addressing Mike’s question, I think we are to some extent in a period of ‘joyless growth’. Although output is rising, people don’t feel much richer because as other posters have noted, real disposable incomes have been squeezed by taxes and energy prices. A couple of stats show this - for Q1, the Bank of England estimates real disposable income fell 0.4%, and the average growth rate over the last eight quarters is 0.3% or just over 1% annualised. This less than half the rate of growth seen over the previous nine quarters and is quite low historically speaking.
More up to date (though less precise) estimates show a similar pattern - if you deflate ex bonuses gross earnings growth by the tax and prices index (much better than the CPI for this purpose), then ‘real’ pay is rising at less than 1% annually, again less than half the average rate since 1997. I think these trends go a long way towards explaining why the MORI economic optimism index remains at relatively depressed levels, at -33 in July.
35. who knows? A few weeks ago the Guardian was heavily promoting the idea that the airline plot was a hoax designed by govt to frighten the populace. They’ve shut up now people have been charged. I think they’ve turned Lib Dem!
Where exactly is Brown anyway? Has he retired?
I think you forgot the biggest one of the lot snowflake - the turn of the century tech bubble and subsequent equity market collapse- which was the real cause of the recession, not Sep 11 (markets actually rallied hard for months afterwards as the Fed slashed rates).
Nice rebuttal though of a jaw-droppingly inaccurate assertion!
DH - the collapse of LTCM was certainly believed by central banks to threaten global economic collapse. Either that or they did a number of unprecendented things to help their mates in the fund out.
46. No, he’s very well and he has just sent a lovely picture of his family to Dave and Boy George (aka Gideon)
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2006/08/brown220806_228×278.jpg
Snowflake5 is right. The economy is in good shape and Brown has done an excellent job.
But how people feel depends on how much money they have left over at the end of the week, and how much pleasure they get from spending it.
Take the analogue television switch-off. Households will spend hundreds or even thousands of pounds on new tellies. For many, their monthly bills will also increase as they sign up to new subscription channels. All this is good for the economy. Retail spending will increase, the economy will expand. Best of all, the government will raise billions auctioning off bandwidth.
But the voter-in-the-street has had to spend a huge chunk of money for no discernible benefit, has to curtail holiday plans because the bank account is now empty, and now has less money on a month-by-month basis. No doubt it will dismay the establishment that an ungrateful electorate is not giving the government its due reward for this economic bounty.
43 Julian. Fear not I rarely do serious after lunch !
BTW I just had the mispleasure of looking at the “Daily Express”. What an odious rag it is. If it’s not obsessing about Diana, it’s lost the plot on house prices and worst of all immigration.
The good news is that its losing circulation hand over fist !!
31 - There are definate problems in Scotland with declining populations and their is no question that more migrant workers are needed. Their has been a noticable influx of Poles into Edinburgh and it was certainly welcome. I know a number of employers - particularly hairdressers for some reason - who had been experiencing difficulty finding staff.
But I think it’s naieve to suggest that the process does not require any kind of management. I was speaking to a friend of mine who works as a teacher and they have had around thirty Polish kids join this year. Not a huge number but it is problematic when neither they or their parents speak a great of English.
The other great down side has been the confusion caused to Edinburgh’s heroin addict community with the opening of a shop called ‘Polski Smak’ on Gorgie Road.
Fred I reckon has likely got close to the answer.
It goes back to the point about the cpi being suspect - maybe there should be a cpi for swing voters. It may well be that in real terms their incomes are falling. I can believe that.
50. I believe the circulation figures are also misleading because they include copies that are given away free or for huge discounts in places like department stores.
[26] Andrea, being an expert on vote rigging is incompatible with being arrested for it. Trust me on this one…
Snowflake5 - the Grauniad has always been a Liberal newspaper. Any support it has ever offered Labour has always been grudging, temporary and faute de mieux.
20,
In Philip Gould`s The Ufinished Revolution regarding the 97, Campaign.”Agreement with`The Conservatives have messed up the economy`was net zero; it was minus 50 per cent a year before”.
Perception, coupled with making a real decision in the ballot box, can change rapidly.
However it was sleaze that crippled them, that is what Brown has to change, and quickly when he enters office.
53. My gym gives away 100 copies of the Indy every day free (they don’t always get taken up ).
51 Max. Good post Max. In many ways, although on a smaller scale, it mirrors Italian migration into the central belt over the past 150 years.
53 Julian. Bulk sales have always inflated sales, but I’m especially pleased that the “Daily Express” year on year continues to decline. Having said that the “Telegraph” is having a desperate time with falling sales too.
36. Thanks Anthony (and Andrea subsequently.)
Yes of course I am only reporting my brother’s impressions and it’s all highly subjective. I was just making the point that the ‘dour Scot’ thing strikes me as a bit media manufactured. Remember Bambi and Thumper? How long did that last? I’m sure once he’s in the main job with a different type of media exposure his image will change - not necessarily for the better of course; we seldom love our politicians and good news doesn’t sell newspapers but I reckon the ‘competent’ tag will stick because, basically, I think he’s a pretty competent politican.
Max @ 51. Edinburgh’s hairdressers could have tried offering better wages to attract employees, and more training for new entrants. Or they could exploit immigrant labour to hold down the wages of the oppressed Scottish masses.
To be serious, of course immigration is good for the economy. Trouble is, it can screw up the places people emigrate from. Still, a big pop concert once a decade will salve our consciences.
57. That’s because it’s gone from being an excellent newspaper to an over-sized Heffer-led Daily Mail-esque piece of ****!
59 - My last hair cut cost £26! They can’t be that badly paid.
60 Julian. I still take the Telegraph a few times a week. Its coverage of sport and the arts remains first class. Regretably much of the political analysis has been Ratneresque for many years.
………………………
On threadish …. nice piece on Gordon and family here :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/5276190.stm
Jack. I also saw the cover of the Express and it is a sour newspaper but did you see the Telegraph? The juxtaposition of the immigration story and the plane bombers? It doesn’t get much worse. I don’t know what’s happened to that once fine paper?
[1] Actually I think the Tories obsessing about immigration just reminds the rest of us how “nasty” they can be. This post from “commentator” is more or less pure bull**it.
I have heard the Mail and other stupid newspapers talking about one million people a year entering the UK- as opposed to reality of 600,000 over three years (many of whom have subsequently left). Since the building industry, the NHS and The City now depends on CEE immigrants, this kind of shrill and inaccurate drivel just reminds me that some Tories can not be trusted to understand basic statistics or introductory economics.
52. Jon - data on pay settlements (different survey based measure to the national stats average earnings data I used in the post above) shows them running at around 3% - or actually below the current rate of the tax and price index. It is also no doubt the case that the ‘rates of inflation’ experienced by different groups in the population do vary somewhat. I have no doubt that for a subset of the population - and probably a significant one - real incomes are stagnant or slightly down.
61. Max, is your hairdresser so expensive or is it an average price for a hair cut in Scotland?
I paid 20 euros (I think it’s around 14£) the last time and it wasn’t a cheap hairdresser
63 - The editorial team of the Telegraph seem to spend most of their day posting surreptitiously on ConHome, maybe that’s why they’re going down the pan.
On the main thread, there is a leak from other issues where labour has been shown to be untrustworthy. This has led people to re-evaluate the economic question. When one policy area goes as badly as foreign policy (and you could add the home office to that) then other departments suffer too by association.
61 Max. Hair eh ….. I remember that.
……………………..
With my birthday looming …… OK not until January …. may I make it clear to fellow PBers that contributions to a fund for an event of the female variety of the type noted below would be most acceptable !!!!!!!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/norfolk/5275506.stm
Jack W is 104 in Januuary.
61. Max - did you have a blow dry and set as well?
dez 50
The downfall of the Major government was not due to sleaze. Sleaze was a factor, but not the primary one, polling evidence shows quite convincingly, it was the ERM disaster. The ERM disaster had the same effect (worse) that the ‘winter of discontent’ had on Labour. That coupled with the disunity over Europe, spelt the death knell for the Major government. The Thatcher government had its problems with sleaze. ‘The Westland Affair’ could have brought about, Thatcher’s resignation, the Tories plummeted in the polls, eighteen months later another election victory. Of course the Westland Affair did eventually bring about Thatcher’s demise, she created an implacable enemy in Heseltine, and devided her cabinet along pro/anti Europe lines.
63 roger. No , I haven’t seen the Telegraph yet, but juxtaposing stories in such a fashion is a common trick in the business more usually associated with the tabloids, especially when they are implying a scandal with a celebrity or some criminal activity.
The political reality of the “Polish situation” is I fear that the positive arguments on legal immigration will be lost amongst the welter of misinformation and also legitimate concerns over schooling and housing in some hot spots. I expect the conservative dog whistle to reap benefits on the issue and gain some political traction accordingly.
65 - My guess (and I’d be interested to see if someone has detailed statistics) is that people on benefits have done well over the past couple of years, as have rich people, as have public sector workers, but that middling private sector workers and tradesmen have been feeling the pinch.
64. Cicero - you are not actually John Stevens of pro-euro ‘fame’ are you? your relentlessly sneering, snobbish tone is very reminiscent of the great man.
“Is it easier to get a job now or in 1997?” (From the ICM poll)
Asking people a question for which there must be a factual answer and for which hardly any of the respondents will have any personal knowledge is a bizarre exercise. Are they trying to establish how ill-informed their respondents are or how misleading the media are?
surely the issue with the levels of immigration is not whether the economy is in desperate need for them, but why there are British people who won’t take the jobs.
And i do agree that it is ironic that many of those who claim to believe in the free market are suddenly all opposed now.
70 stonecold. There was certainly not just one factor that saw the Tories implode in 97. Briefly I think 4 factors ended the Tory years.
1. The ERM fiasco and resultant loss in economic competence for the government.
2. Extensive and on-going sleaze.
3. Appearance of weakness and tiredness in government ranks.
4. A viable alternative government was in place.
Fair play to you Stonecold. Faced with watching their mortgages rise hugely in the space of hours it was the last, and in some cases, first and last straw.
The reality is that the economy is currently not bad but not great either, but a disproportionately large part of it is being driven by the traditonal folk in the square mile and their friends in the financial services who are doing very well thank you. If the global markets undergo a bit of pasting shortly (and they likely will thanks to some dispute with Iran)expect those people to get hit and in turn the money flowing through the system to go with it.
I look at Brown’s economic management like a business owner who is taking money out of the company while the going is good, a company can’t go on like that forever without hitting the buffers.
71. ……Housing possibly but apparently only 3% of the East Europeans bring any family with them so schooling won’t be much of a problem.
Anyway the pro-immigrant forces from industry are raising their voices pretty loud and with their power and resources It wont be long before Damian Green is shown up for the opportunist he undoubtedly is.
22 Peter the Punter, normally I tend to enjoy your posts, but I’m not sure you read the article at the top. Compare what the poll says ‘those surveyed split by 37%-52% on whether they thought Brown had been responsible for Britain’s economic success’ with what you say ‘He is rightly given credit for establishing Labour’s reputation for economic competence’
How do you square the circle?
does any one think that although the tories may make some early milage out of this, that it may infact undermine cameron in the long run as it will help to establish the idea that he is it a bit of an oppurtunist?
76. Jack, whilst yes there are multiple factors, Stomecold is spot on, the ERM fiasco was just a huge huge jolt and a killer blow. Those who were prepared to give the Tories a break over many issues (as many Labour supporters would still over sleaze now for example)weren’t going to give a break over the ERM business.
Also there was the time for aa change sentiment discussed in another post elsewhere that is about to hit labour in grand fashion come next GE.
On the subject of Polish immigration, perhaps it should be remembered that there has been a strong self-sufficient Polish community in the UK since 1945. Consequently, there was already an infrastructure of support for the newcomers. In my town, there has been a Polish church, a Dom Polski Social Club and a Polish delicatessen for many years, and the new wave of immigrants have slotted in with barely a ripple. However, I doubt if the same would be true for the Rumanians, Ukrainians or any other eastern European group.
Incidentally, I have seen very little press coverage of crimes committed by Poles - law abiding types, as well as hard working, it would seem.
WRT immigration, the biggest driver of permanent immigration is family reunions (accounting for three quarters of all permanent settlements in 2005). This is nice for the families in question, but, for the British taxpayer, is not much more than an expensive form of overseas aid.
78 roger Damian Green has never been the brightest tool in the box anyway. He isn’t even good at being an opportunist. When Estelle Morris was at Education, he was her shadow. Except when there was a major scandal over A level results, he was on holiday in the Carribean and wouldn’t come back to appear on tele. I’m not really sure why DC has him on board at all, even IDS got rid of him in the end!
All this talk of immigration (how long before the Daily Mail mentions the word ’swamping’) is doing the Conservative party much damage. Although there are a lot of people who jump up and down about immigration it is the language you use when making the statement that is important.
On subject, I am amazed that Gordon isn’t given the credit. Even though the credit for creating the current stability belongs to Ken Clarke and John Major, you would think that he deserves some credit for not ballsing it up! Even I would give him that, and I don’t like the bloke.
Another thing that surprised me is that 67% of those that didn’t feel better off since 1997 were Labour voters. This presumably means that many Conservative voters DO feel better off under Labour. Which will increase the amount of work we have to do to persuade them that George Osbourne will be a ‘new’ iron chancellor!
With regard yesterdays excitement at the Conservative 9% lead, much as I welcome the trend continuing, there is still a long way to go from 198 Conservative MPs to anything like a majority.
81 Yokel. I think for some one of the four factors was the end, others may have needed 2, 3 or all factors to tip the balance.
82 Augustus. Don’t hold your breath on Polish lawlessness. I await the inevitable “Sun” or “Express” story doing a ‘Pole Axed Swan’ story !
I watched the channel 4 interview with, Frank Field, Damien Green, Digby Jones on the immigration issue. Damien Green wAs muted, he must be the most insipid, uninspiring, nonentity in p-olitics today. Digby Jones was generally supportive of the EU expansion and its accompanying immigration, with one or two caveats on Rumania and Bulgaria. Frank Field, was the only one to express any opposition and unease about it. Field’s attitude could be due to his working class constituents, seeing their wages driven down by ‘cheap labour’ I can’t see the Tories being able to make much of an issue here. Their donors in big business, like the present situation, its keeping wage rates down, and expanding profits. The traditional parties will probably reach some kind of consensus on this issue, leaving the BNP and UKIP, to sniff around for votes.
75 In certain industries, if hourly wages are barely above benefit levels, you’re going to struggle to get native workers to take the jobs. And if you can get foreign workers to take them at such rates, then the wage rates will remain at those levels.
So if you advocate uncontrolled immigration on the ground that it keeps wages down, you’re really advocating taxpayer subsidies for certain industries - not the free market as I understand it.
There is a curious snippet in the Diary column on page 11 of today’s White Times – I cannot do electronic linking, so here it is re-typed verbatim:
“British politicians have the highest mortality rate in Europe, a study by Diplo magazine suggests. It claims that 11 have died since 2004, although Parliament puts the figure at a mere six. It’s still a pretty high number, given that Sweden and France are next with only three each.“
I know that I am always accused of being morbid when I ask this, but don’t any of you City types out there have access to Actuarial tables which can forecast the likelihood of future by elections? Now that Governments are reluctant to give serving MPs jobs which require them to give up their seats, we have to rely on mortality for election contests and their resultant money making opportunities, so when is the next one likely?
83 - you have to factor in the fact that these family reunions mean the family member who was already living and working in this country no longer wires his or her money home, but instead keeps the money in this country to support his or her dependents. That money goes back into this country’s retail and service industry, with the treasury taking a cut via VAT etc.
So in fact Sean Fear - familt reunions are LESS like overseas aid than the alternative (individuals working to support family in homeland).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/5277350.stm
Caroline Flint has been appointed “minister for fitness”.
I wonder who will shadow her.
SF @ 83 - it may be expensive but it is not overseas aid. By removing people, skills, and capital from wherever-they-come-from, we actually make “overseas” a slightly worse place.
The left has belatedly noticed this, at least with regard to health care workers, so that in polite circles it is now considered bad form to strip developing countries of doctors.
I have the pleasure of living in the least affordable place in the whole of the UK according to latest figures (Poole , Dorset average house price 12.5times average salary!!)
We have had an employment crisis here where employers have been crying out for people for years to take their jobs - we have seen a massive influx of Eastern Europeans (indeed we have 4 Slovakians working in our factory at work) and have seen absolutely no increase in tensions in the community
My view is that they would not have come if there was not work for them - a friend who runs an employment agency has actually opened an office in Krakow and produces literature in Polish for his workforce
He says the jobs he places (production line , packing types of work) couldn’t or wouldn’t be filled by home labour through either lack of numbers or , more importantly , because such roles are seen as beneath locals who it seems would rather doss on the social than work hard in a factory or don’t even have the level of basic education to perform such roles
Food for thought
90 - Soames?
Not a shadow as such, more of an eclipse.
82 et al: Anyone see the programme presented by Digby Jones on Polish immigration this week? Very interesting. he reckons interest rates are 0.5% lower than they otherwise would be thanks to the deflationary effect of immigration, easing the supply pressures and lowering wage costs. Net effect is overwhelmingly beneficial he says. Must say i agree.
I have voted tory every time i’ve voted (couple of apathetic abstentions at locals). Mostly this has been with only 2 cheers or a ‘best of a bad lot’ decision, but at heart I support them for being pro free market and free trade and in favour of smaller government (in theory). So i am dismayed to hear the rhetoric which is directed against these immigrants from the conservatives. It’s far from xenophobic, but the mood is vaguely unpleasant. I agree with red alert, free marketeers should be supporting this influx of people who are a) willing to work and b) not claming much benefit at all. Only 7% are claiming any benefit at all apparently.
Poles would prefer in the main to go to Germany (it’s nearer for a start) and soon they will be able to. I fear we will suffer for losing these guys, and will be stuck with our feckless and embarassingly undereducated native ‘workforce’. I think we SHOULD fill the gap with Bulgarians and Romanians, but sadly the tories are chasing the Daily Mail vote.
90 Andrea. Cameron should appoint Nick Soames as Shadow to illustrate what a bonkers idea it is !
91 - John L - I second that. Can I just clarify, in my response to Sean Fear I was not supporting what John correctly identifies as stripping developing countries of skilled people. Personally I am all for stricter immigration controls - however the argument has to be won without resorting to or pandering to Tory racism and Daily Mail alarmism.
93 ukpaul. Much
95 … no, that will just show the Tories don’t take government seriously.
92 You also have to factor in the fact that family members arriving here will be entitled to healthcare, social security, housing, and education. The British taxpayer is not a beneficiary.
On the immigration subject, we could do much worse than having Poland as a country to which we are ‘twinned’. Pleasant, hard working people in my experience, very unlike our own yobbish element (as a country they’ve been royally shafted for centuries too).
95 - Beat you to it!
94 - your post is objectionable. Your dismissal of the working classes of this country as “feckless and embarassingly undereducated” is ignorant and disgraceful, and your view that imnporting cheap labour is ok because it makes for good headline economic figures fails to factor in the high social cost of throwing a generation of indigenous Britons on the scrap heap because you want your plumbing done by someone who is willing to work like a stink for a pittance without complaining.
98. seriously speaking, it’ll probably be one of the shadow health ministers (Tim Loughton, John Baron or Stephen O’Brien)
93.
96 - I was wondering when we’d here the ‘r’ word. It is utterly depressing that people don’t think this is an issue that should even be discussed. If mainstream parties don’t who do you think will?
Frankly I can’t see what the Tories have said that is all that contencious. I think we need some control over the system to ensure we fill skills gaps where they exist whilst ensuring that some thought is given to where these jobs are likely to be created so appropriate funding and expertise can be given to local services.
99 - Sean that with respect is nonsense
Every Pole and Slovakian I know around here is working legally paying tax and NIC and therefore contributing to the economy - at the moment many are sending a high proportion of their post tax earnings home to support families
Quite right too that they should be entitled to social security and housing as they are paying taxes and also quite right too that their wives and children are entitled to live here
Why should we be discrimnating against hard working law abiding immigrants and at the same time subsidising lazy local people to do nothing except doss on the dole and produce babies?
In the longer run, I think the economic prospects of Eastern European workers are going to be better in their home countries - so I imagine most will gradually move back there.
70 , Stonecold.
It was Sleaze that crippled them, was Philip Goulds analysis not mine.
The figures quoted state in 55, were that in 97 improving perceptions of the economy were beginning to have a political effect.
The conservatives were moving ahead with real power on the economy, but were crippled by sleaze.
This I agree with, and will be in my opinion what does Labour, if perceptions are not changed by Brown, quickly.
The voters will bank a good economy, as they did in the USA,when Gore was defeated, by the clarion call of bringing morals to the whitehouse.
00 - yet another post that shows the middle class posters on this site despise the existing working class of this country. I read a very good book on this called “The Likes of Us” by a fella called Michael Collins, I think he did a TV programme on the subject to. I commend it to you.
04 - whoa. I AM saying we should debate this. Read my post. I am afraid however that for good reasons I am repelled at the “are you thinking what we’re thinking” agenda behind Tory moves in this respect. I am sorry - but even when Tories say things that aren’t racist on the surface on immigration, my hackles are still raised because as a former Tory member I know racism runs deeply through the Tory party.
102: Wow.
I was probably guilty of overgeneralisation, but there’s little doubt that education levels of too many Britons today is not good enough to compete in the world economy. Do you disagree? Ask an employer if so. Only this week we hear of remdial reading and writing classes for 16 year olds. That is, i’m sorry, embarrassing for the UK, or should be.
There’s no reason why people should be ‘thrown on the scrapheap’ by this - who is advocating that?
Why should employers be forced to pay uncompetitively high wages (compared with the rest of the world)? We have to face the fact that the UK has not got a God given right to be a major world economy. Globalisation means that if we pay ourselves too much we will be uncompetitive, and we will lose out. Our comparative advantage is not in low skill jobs, it is in high tech high added vaklue sectors, for which we need a better educated workforce.
I know of no plumbers of any nationality who work for a pittance, far from it If you do, what’s their number?
Jon C. I saw the programme and it was quite compelling. A rare win-win situation all round. I mentioned it on here the other day and was told it was all spin. The only possible loser is Poland itself but I reckon they must have known what to expect when they joined the EEC.
Complaints about educational standards are nothing new:
Alfred ( the Great) wrote ’so general was its [Latin] decay in England that there were very few on this side of the Humber who could understand their rituals in English or translate a letter from Latin into English … so few that I cannot remember a single one south of the Thames when I came to the throne.’
“64. Cicero - you are not actually John Stevens of pro-euro ‘fame’ are you? your relentlessly sneering, snobbish tone is very reminiscent of the great man.
by Wag August 23rd, 2006 at 10:41 am”
Sneering- Yeah, OK- Guilty as charged- I do tend to sneer at boneheads.
Snobbish?- Naaw- perhaps unpleasantly arrogant- I think boneheads should be punished for their stupidity.
John Stevens- Nice Man with a very nice house round the corner from “my London Home”.
PS Love the idea of Soames as shadow minister for obesity- Saw him in Wiltons recently- it was like watching Mr. Creasote before the appalling consequences of “the wafer thin mint”.
08 - Your prejudice has been revealed.
Point out where I mention class? I’ll save you the time - you can’t because I didn’t.
I referred to yobbish elements so why do *you* associate that with the working class? The prejudice resides in your own mind it would appear.
(and as the child of poor working class parents, the first in my family ever to stay in education beyond sixteen you’re picking a fight with the wrong man).
110 Absolutely right - the level of basic education in this country currently is abysmal - I have step teenaged children who can’t do basic addition - I’ve seen an 18 year old student at the local grammar school who can’t score a darts match as the taking away is too difficult
Remedial classes for 16 year olds - the universities have been doing remedial classes for post A level students!!!
And we wonder why bright polite friendly English speaking Eastern Europeans are getting employment so easily here??
79. Ben - Thank you. I didn’t know I had any readers, let alone admirers, out there but I am flattered anyway.
It is of course difficult to be succinct in these postings whilst avoided sweeping generalisations and overly subjective comment. You are right to pick me up on both counts.
When I wrote ‘He is rightly given credit for establishing Labour’s reputation for economic competence’ I had in mind the views expressed in publications such as the FT and Economist, as well as professional journals such as Taxation which I take for business purposes. I was also reflecting the general views which I find amongst my colleagues in the City. I may be misrepresenting them but not wilfully so. I have learned to trust my own antennae in these matters and they tell me that GB is widely regarded as solidly competent in his managing of the country’s financial affairs. I could perhaps have added ‘….amonsgt those who take an interest, particularly a professional interest, in these things’…but the post was long enough anyway.
His rating amongst the general population may well be less high than it is amongst financial professionals, economists, and people of that ilk. I may be wrong but that’s how I ’square the circle’.
Nevertheless I am always interested in hearing contrary views that are reasonable and well articulated. They help to correct any natural biases I may have and thus help me to sustain the objectivity necessary to be a successful punter.
I am not without political opinions but I attend PB for the betting first and foremost, for the fun and banter second.
Thanks again for your kind comment and for making me reflect.
105 Family reunions from Eastern Europe aren’t actually a major part of our migration figures. The majority are from Africa and Asia, many as a result of arranged marriages.
90 - Andrea it is a sad reflection on the modern Conservative party that I cannot think of a female candidate with the ‘attibutes’ to be Minister for Fitness.
I trust the new candidate selection rules wil adress this unfortunate situation - preferably with one of the Hollyoaks girls, or failing that, Beyonce.
118 - Sorry ‘attributes’.
Stonecold It is not a matter of the Tories making an issue of immigration, it is already one out there, outside the comfortable middle class lives that many posters here ( like me) probably have.
But how many here really face the negative consequences of mass immigration in jobs and housing, and neighborhoods and public services.
I don’t. All I see are the odd Latvian builders and a Lithuanian waiter at my local who was joined by his brother recently.
But my relatives are not so fortunate, still living in some of the urban deserts of the Midlands. They are not racists but their feelings on this are changing fast.
18 - Julie Kirkbride maybe?
87. Sean - I don’t like to use anecdotal evidence but several local employers I have recently spoken to have been replacing ‘native’ labour with CEE labour on cost grounds. Rather than paying £8-10 per hour they find they can get away with paying the minimum wage or slightly above. So this tends to support your view. Most of the jobs in question are unskilled or semi-skilled (e.g. packaging and other basic production line stuff) so this is a cost issue rather than an educational one.
x18.”I trust the new candidate selection rules wil adress this unfortunate situation - preferably with one of the Hollyoaks girls”
Max, you already have Adam, there’s no need to get all soap actors in politics!
Jon C I thought you had quit the Tory party some months ago?
“Andrea it is a sad reflection on the modern Conservative party that I cannot think of a female candidate with the ‘attibutes’ to be Minister for Fitness.”
Judith Kim-Symes is pretty striking.
122 It’s much less likely to be an issue at the level of skilled or professional workers.
The reason why Gordon does not get credit for the strength of the economy is because he has not done much to contribute to it - in fact quite the reverse . If looked at in the long term an economy does well because of factors like investment , productivity / improved education , increased efficiency ( though adoption of new technology and infrastructure investment ) , research and development , well aligned incentives for innovation and work , efficent government spending etc
If you appraise new labour on these criteria it has not done well - a few initaives in the right direction but delivery generally poor . A lot of money has been spent but not spent well
Tax credits for example - worthy motive but just about the most ineffficent way of handling taxpayers money - collecting it processing it through ineffcient government departments and then returning it ( often the wrong amount ) by which time a lot of its value has gone . Infrastrucure - almost nothing really meaningful - Crossrail ! compare this with the Thatcher years - Eurotunnel
Education - ask the employers / universities what they think and you have the answer
Productivity / investment data does not look good
Financial services have done well and have been an engine of growth - much of this is due to low tax for expatriates and investment by international/US banks . Increasing tax and regulation and poor investment in London infrastructure may stifle this growth in the longer term
In contrast the so called Thatcher years brough about a dramatic change which reversed the long term decline . The result of labours time in office will be seen in the next 5 - 10 years . At the moment it looks like neutral at best or a resumption of our long term decline
so all in all poor marks for Gordon on the economy
112. ColinW - I think King Alfred had a pretty fair point at the time. He didn’t learn to write Latin himself until he was almost 40.
Number of points
ICM POLL - Turnout (those certain to vote) up from 47 in July to 49 in August (June was 53) - Do we really believe that that will be the turnout? A higher proportion of Labour supporters are saying that they are less likely to vote for anyone, but may return to the fold come the actual election.
IMMIGRATION - No seems to be saying that the numbers registered bear no relation to the numbers staying, or intending to stay. I think we get 7m or so visitors a year called “holiday makers” - the country is big enough to absorb them. Perhaps the drop in visitors because of the airline plot will be made up by the Poles coming to stay (and spend). Until we get records of numbers leaving and numbers of Brits emigrating (they are only counted by a survey)then no one can really say what is happening. FWIW I think most people (even the racists) are actually quite happy to have the poles providing services here.
AIRLINE PLOT - I think I have to admit that my mistrust of the police and security services seems to have been misplaced. They deserve our thanks for averting a major tragedy.
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