Sean Fear’s local elections column
August 25th, 2006Universities are still hostile to the Tories
In the days of Sir Maurice Bowra, C.S. Lewis, and J.R.R. Tolkien, it would have been hard to imagine Oxford as being anything other than a Conservative stronghold. Academics, students, and college servants were all overwhelmingly Conservative in their sympathies, and Conservatives dominated the City Council. Sadly, that has all changed. Mark Senior’s description of the Conservatives as a “minor party” in the City is all too true. The Conservatives don’t have a single councillor, and nor did they even come close to winning a seat on May 5th. They are the fifth party in Oxford, behind the Greens and something called the Independent Working Class Association.
In most areas dominated by universities, the situation is similar. There are no Conservative councillors in Cambridge, although they did manage to win 22% of the vote in May, and achieved close second places in two wards. In Manchester, there is not a single Conservative councillor. In Sheffield Hallam, Conservative until 1997, there are two out of twelve. Bristol West, once safely Conservative, is now dominated by Liberal Democrat councillors. In the student-dominated Headingley ward of Leeds, the Conservative vote is derisory.
There are a few shafts of sunlight for the Conservatives. They gained a seat in Pennsylvania ward, Exeter, and came a strong second in Duryard, both wards dominated by Exeter University. Across Bristol as a whole, they managed to come first in terms of vote share in May, although Clifton and Cotham wards were uncontested this year. But overall, it’s clear that the best way of killing off the Conservative vote in any area is to build a university there.
In a way this is puzzling, as Universities like Bristol, Oxford, Cambridge, and Exeter have large and active Conservative associations. Nor are students anything like as left-wing, in general, as they are often portrayed (most are not particularly interested in politics). But there is no doubt that academics, and university workers, who are much more likely to vote locally than undergraduates, are now well to the left of the population as a whole in their politics. The local elections in May suggest that the Conservatives have made no headway among this section of the population at all, or indeed, among “Guardian Man and Woman” voters generally, in places like Twickenham and Hornsey & Wood Green.
This is hardly an exclusively British phenomenon. In the United States, and Australia, areas dominated by universities are also very strongly left-wing in their political sympathies.
Last night saw three by-elections:-
Harrow LBC: Harrow Weald. Lib Dem 1,288; Conservative 1,088; Labour 295; Green 74. Lib Dem gain from Conservative. This is a very good result for the Lib Dems as it enables them to form a group on Harrow Council. Harrow Weald was for a long time, a Lib Dem stronghold, and it was perhaps surprising that the Conservatives should have taken all three seats in May.
Statford DC: Alcester. Conservative 798; Lib Dem 638; Labour 54. Conservative gain from Lib Dem. A very strong Conservative performance, in a council which the Lib Dems seemed set to capture before 2003.
Elmbridge DC: Walton Central. Resident 656; Conservative 482; Lib Dem 115; Labour 53. Resident Hold.
Sean Fear is a London Conservative activist and writes a weekly column on local elections.
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Good article Sean.
Do students tend to vote in university seats, or in ‘home’ seats?
As a conservative student at Cambridge I’m all too well acquainted with how much the Conservatives are disliked by people my age. I think it’s largely due to most people my age growing up at a time where, for the vast majority of their lives, the Tories really have been seen as the unelectable opposition (even when they were in power in the mid 90’s). I don’t think it’s going to change for some time - The Conservatives need to have a sustained period of success and prosperity for the assumption that “I’d never vote Tory” thing to wear off.
Re: 1, Do we vote in university seats or home seats?
At my college they assume everyone wants to be registered to vote in Cambridge unless we state otherwise when we’re receiving all our papers at the start of our degree. Some take advantage of this but most people just vote at the university - Saves the hassle of absentee ballots or going home.
How nice to see Maurice Bowra mentioned. I sat next to him at an Oxford dinner in the late sixties - and was totally captivated.
At my uncles funeral this year I read John Sparrow’s poem written as a memorial to Bowra.
But in the 1950s and 60’s the Conservatives, whilst expecting to rule, still had the ethos of serving the community rather than the selfish, I’ve made it, pull the ladder up, attitude of todays Conservatives.
As a conservative student at Cambridge I’m all too well acquainted with how much the Conservatives are disliked by people my age. I think it’s largely due to most people my age growing up at a time where, for the vast majority of their lives, the Tories really have been seen as the unelectable opposition (even when they were in power in the mid 90’s). I don’t think it’s going to change for some time - The Conservatives need to have a sustained period of success and prosperity for the assumption that “I’d never vote Tory” thing to wear off.
Scotty, its going to much less time than you think. I’m going to be starting university in October and the majority of my peers are now steadfast Conservative supporters, whilst even a year ago they practically hated the party. Cameron is not only winning the support of many more women, but he’s also attracting a lot of first time voters too.
Sean
There are very few Conservative councillors on Reading Borough Council either- virtually a Labour one party state.
It’s time you guys realised that STV might put new life into local government (as would Douglas Carswell MP’s proposal for a local sales tax to fund local government).
Await with interest the Scottish local elections next year, and Conservative councillors on Glasgow city council!
Most students are naive cretins. And the time-serving, pension-grasping, Hezbollah-loving wasters who teach and work in Universities are even worse. We should be glad we haven’t got their support, it would be the litmus test of our stupidity.
People who work properly and pay taxes are the ones who will vote for us, them and maverick libertarian memoirists, natch.
All that said, I remember the atmos at UCL when I was a student. It was, on the surface, fervently leftwing and socialist and Troops Out and Feminazi and all that bollox. But the Tory Association was one of the most popular, socially, and had the most fun. I suspect a lot of students paid lip service to leftwing issues but thought differently, privately.
And of course we should always remember that a communist at 18 is simply bound to be a High Tory age 48. These leftwing seats are simply breeding the Tories of the future.
Huzzah!
7. “And of course we should always remember that a communist at 18 is simply bound to be a High Tory age 48″
And the communists at 48 were tories at 18?!
1. When I was at Exeter, it was usually neither. Turnout among undergraduates was dreadfully low, and I imagine, still is. I would guess that, of the minority who vote, more would vote at university than at home. But I think it’s the university staff who are a much more significant element among the local electorate.
One also needs to bear in mind that students are not popular neighbours. Older voters who can afford to, tend to move out of areas with growing student populations. They would tend to be the sort of people who would vote Conservative.
2 and 5. As I say, it’s an international phenomenon, not one that’s specific to the UK. Regardless of Cameron’s impact on undergraduates, I can see no evidence at all that university staff, or GMW voters generally, are moving towards the Conservatives.
4 From what I’ve read of him, I would very much have liked to meet Bowra. My favourite story about him was when he and his fellow dons were sunbathing naked by the Thames, a group of girls came by in a punt. The others covered up their private parts, but Bowra flung his towel over his face, saying “I don’t know about you chaps, but I’m known by my face round here.”
While I don’t agree with your characterisation of modern Conservatives, I think the leftward shift among academics is not really down to the Conservative Party.
6. There is, however, a big Tory vote in Reading, and of course they hold one of the constituencies.
Not the Thames (Isis) but Parsons pleasure on the Cherwell.
Quotes from Wikepedia:
My dear, buggers can’t be choosers.” (explaining his marriage to a “plain” girl)
“I expect to pass through this world but once and therefore if there is anybody I want to kick in the crotch I had better kick them in the crotch now, for I do not expect to pass this way again.”
“With one or two exceptions, colleges expect their players of games to be reasonably literate.”
“Splendid couple – slept with both of them”, (on hearing of the marriage of a well-known literary pair).
To me he extolled the virtues of Persian women!
Anyone heard about the Labour-Lib Dem councillor defections in Beckett’s backyard?
2 - Scotty, during the late ’80s the Tories were “the Natural Party of Government” and were disliked by some people because of it. Mike alluded to this in his previous article. Politics in the ’80s (and earlier, I believe) was much more polarising and that effect is much stronger in the 30-somethings than it is today, I believe.
Bummer!
Could these defections be the start of a movement away from Labour by muslim groups? How many seats might be affected?
11. 37 members including a former councillor and a ward branch chairman. The majority of them is Muslim and their reason is Labour policy about Lebanon.
Labour suggests that there’re also some internal reasons (last year’s selections) and said “good riddance” to them.
4. The last time I met Bowra, in July 1971, he told me that Chuchill had sent him on a fact finding mission to Germany in the early thirties. On his return, Churchill asked,
“Well”.
Bowra replied,
“I think they mean war, sir”
At this point Bowra, becoming Churchill for the nonce, put his hand on my shoulder, fixed me with his glittering eye and said,
“I think you’re right, my boy”
It was very late, he finished his port and went to bed.
He died that night. They were probably his last words.
9 - Sean, I think you and I both agree that conservative values and Conservative votes would be better served by a conserted pitch to the aspirant and non-graduate C2s.
Raj @ 11 - there’s more on the story on the Lib Dem website:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/mass-labour-defection-to-liberal-democrats-in-margaret-becketts-constituency.html
jr Thanks for that, were you at Wadham? Yes he told me that his doctor had told him to limit his drinking - he did, to two bottles of Claret a night.
16 - Disagree about Conservative votes, Tabman - if the aim of 50% graduates is persisted with, it’ll be a rum lookout for the party which doesn’t appeal at least a bit to them.
As to Conservative values - well, these are an infinitely malleable thing. But I’m always happier with a position when it can be backed intellectually - so possibly I disagree with you there too. But if you fancy expanding your point I’m all ears.
9 Sean. Very funny the story about the towels
The party that is led by a chap who says education is so important that we will encourage it by increasing tuition fees to pay for it is going to find it difficult to appeal to students or their parents.
As I said earlier, the modern Tory motto: “I’ve made it pull up the ladder”
“As I said earlier, the modern Tory motto: “I’ve made it pull up the ladder””
Weren’t the Tories always known as “me, me, me” at leadt since Thatchers time?
21/22- No, that’s socialism!
22 - Not sure about that Icarus / Roger - the Tories (since the eighties) were always about allowing those with the ability or initiative to get ahead - if you’re to extend a criticism to that philosophy it can’t be about pulling up the ladder but about the opposite - giving no help to those less able to climb it. I’d always seen socialism (not necessarily the present Labour government, but still true to some extent) as the ‘pull-up-the-ladder’ approach.
But it’s just an issue of exactly where you strike the balance.
Sean - Pennsylvania no longer contains more than a handful of students though there are plenty of academics. Students live in St. James, St Davids, Duryard, Newtown and Polsloe.
Overwhelmingly they favoured the LibDems nationally.
Been thinking about this. I don’t think the issue is so much where the students are - as we’ve said before, student turnout is derisory. And while universities are big employers, I can’t imagine that there are enough professors to make the academic vote that significant.
My theory - which I’ve only just thought of, so I advance it as a suggestion rather than the truth - is that the point is that university seats also tend to be lived in by a certain sort of middle class professional. If you look at the seats with the highest proportions of graduates, they’re the university seats - Sheffield Hallam, Manchester Withington, Cambridge, etc… - mainly because university seats tend to be nice places to live, and because people tend to live in areas with like minded people (if their tastes were that different they’d probably choose to live elsewhere).
Now clearly these people are often liberal in outlook, and (being disproportionately public sector - even if they weren’t themself public sector they would have friends in the public sector) never had much of a taste for the small state ethos. They voted Conservative when it was the party of the middle classes, or of the establishment, partly because it was in their interests to do so, but mainly because people don’t actually think that much about politics and if people of that sort voted Conservative, well, that must be right and we’ll go with flow. Now the opposite is true, and you can be at parties in cities like Manchester with a whole bunch of thirty-something professional whose mind it would never cross to vote Conservative - and (thinking about politics rarely) they might not be able to marshall much of an argument why not, it’s just that that’s not what people of that sort do.
Politics is contagious - if the consensus is in favour of or against a particular party, you won’t find much dissent. You’ll find less dissent than election results suggest you ought to. And university seats are more than usually susceptible to this sort of phenomenon because people are lumped so close together and interact so much. (Though I’m struggling to think of a seat where the oppositie is true.)
Anyway - you’ve probably wisely skipped the rather dense text above - the conslusions are
1) It’s the graduates, not the students, and they’re GMWs
2) They’ve no longer got a reason not to vote Lab or Lib Dem
3) They were never that strongly aligned anyway, and
4) It’s currently not fashionable amongst them to vote Conservative
Any sign of the YouGov Poll, Sky reporting that the telegraph headline is “Blair returns from holiday to bad Polls”?
Cookie, you missed:
5) They are smug, lazy, morally narcissistic, and snobbish. And they believe themselves to be smarter than they really are.
Hence they find a natural place in New Labour.
28 - But isn’t that true of all of humanity, Sean?
Pleased you’re here, at any rate. For a moment I thought I was the only one lifeless enough to be sat by my computer on the Friday of a Bank Holiday weekend.
Chris @ 5
That sounds like rather good news though I think it will take some time for it to really filter through to a large effect. David Cameron is certainly seen by many our age as electable, they just want to see sustained evidence that the party is with him and that the impression they receive of the policies (students don’t read manifestos, unless they’re junkies like me!) is positive.
Cookie @ 26
You hit the nail on the head with the “fashionable” comment. Few people my age are willing to break the mould and come out for the Tories but if they sustain this level of support for a while I’m sure they’ll be far more inclined to jump on the bandwagon.
” Anyone heard about the Labour-Lib Dem councillor defections in Beckett’s backyard? ”
Not City councillors, activists mainly. More to this one than just a protest on foreign policy.
I think that Labour locally will be glad to let the Liberals take them on board in the long term from what I’ve read.
If anyone wants to see a real blood and thunder 2007 local election campaign, come to Derby and help your chosen party. There are several wards that are going to be really fierce Conservative / Lib Dem and Labour / Lib Dem fights with the odd Labour / Conservative one to boot.
Last time we had the Conservative agent being reported to the police (by the Lib Dems) and then the Council Leader (Labour) being reported to the standards committee (by the Lib Dems). Then we had the Lembit Opik / Dirty Tactics apology to Jack Straw (caused by false claims by the Lib Dems) which led to the Lib Dem agent recently suggesting in the local paper that Opik’s actions were clearly that of a man ‘under pressure’ and that it was, in fact, him that had been guilty of misleading people.
You couldn’t make it up.
Its huge entertainment in the council chamber as well (archived and available online via the councils website).
30 Scotty - can I ask what age you are?
I’m fairly sure that during the early eighties, the reverse was true, with people - particularly in this group - unwilling to ‘come out’ as Labour voters.
31 - which I guess explains why the Lib Dem gains in the last election led to the formation of a Labour / Tory coalition (is that still in place?)
Cookie @ 32
I’m 20 right now, about to enter my last year of university. It certainly wasn’t fashionable but I watched the 2001 election willing on William Hague and have been a Tory since. My A Level politics class was basically me vs the 8 other people in the room, I loved it.
I think you’re right about past trends though. During any period of party dominance it’s difficult for young people to see past the current government if their dominance has been a feature of your adult life so far. For most people the Tories have always been these Tax-cutting, Public-service-slashing politicians, we needed someone fresh like Cameron to start the process of dispelling that image.
34 - I agree Scotty. I’m 31 now; when I was your age the situation was reversed - everyone was Tory (or occasionally Lib Dem) and to admit to vote Labour was quite unusual. Then when Tony Blair took over in 1994 when I was at uni - and dispelled Labour’s image of high spending calss warriors - and people started to drift off leftwards until by the time we graduated mine was a lone voice on the right. And now my generation seem - slowly, and without any conscious decision apparent - to be drifting back again. It’s clearly not everyone changing their minds, but people no longer look at you oddly when you tell them you’ll probably vote Conservative.
” which I guess explains why the Lib Dem gains in the last election led to the formation of a Labour / Tory coalition (is that still in place?) ”
Yep, it’s actually working fairly well at the present time. The Conservatives are pushing through many of the manifesto pledges they made and Labour are allowed to continue in minority rule as the pay off. It’s certainly different and hasn’t stopped the Conservatives forcing u-turns and opposing motions brought to the council.
Many of the Conservative motions have been supported by the Lib Dems through gritted teeth and Labour defeated the same way on other issues.
The bad news for the Lib Dems is that they are effectively frozen out of the political process. They have no cabinet members or chairs.
Basically, as it turned out, under no circumstances would the Conservative or Labour group consider working with the Lib Dems and that won’t change for a very long time.
Common enemy if you like.
They wouldn’t agree, but the Lib Dems have brought it on themselves and were beside themselves with disbelief when the expected Conservative alliance didn’t happen.
Even though Labour and Conservative parties have very different views and policies there is respect.
There is no respect for the Lib Dems and they are totally failing to build any.
I personally think it’s a fight to the death now. Either the Lib Dems will take control of the council within the next five years or they will be slapped down to just a few councillors.
The Focus newsletters are filling up with negative Tory/Labour rants rather then local issues. They are losing sight of what made them popular in the first place locally in my opinion.
Like I said, Interesting times in Derby.
36 It just goes to show what I have often said - The Conservatives have no real priciples except the pursuit of power and will work with any other party to achieve it . Another example was the approaches to Labour by the Scottish Conservatives . I am sure the voters in Derby will give their verdict in the next elections .
34 & 35 - Guys nice love in. However exactly how do you go from supporting Hague to IDS to Howard and now DC without people asking you what kind of Tories you are?
Each stood for different things from VERY different wings of the party, yet like Cameron you expect people to believe that within 8 months you have changed!
It took Labour 20 bloody years, the Lib Dems are still working on it after 80 and you think after 8 months you guys think you the argument??
Please tell me you don’t really believe that?! It’s simple. the public don’t really give a rat’s arse any more which party wins; they all blend into one mass. Cameron knows this, hence no firm policies, or principles, just sound bites to keep him in the news for no reason at all. Why, because he knows no bugger will give a shit one way or the other(except sad people like us)
He has done nothing to turn the wider voting public on, nothing and the only reasons you guys like him have sold you Tory souls to the devil is you want power and you don’t care how, why or with what policies you get it.
I have challenged Rik, AHM and SeanT to tell me how last year they backed Howard to the hilt and this year they bury themselves deep in Cameron’s arse. Simple, power at any cost no matter what, principle, policy, integrity…who needs them.
Here endith the rant.
No, Darren, you are getting confused. Time to go to bed and get your beauty sleep…
Icarus and Roger are absolutely right. The Tories have always been the party of selfishness and greed, although this became more blatant under Thatcher. Previously it was masked from the public by the “one nation” Tories, who of course no longer exist.
Labour started to look like them when Blair started to behave like a Tory - which is starting the obvious, really. Normal Labour supporters are not, I think, in all fairness to them, driven by selfishness, which is why they all detest Blair. Seems reasonable.
Where is the next Derby South going to be?
” It just goes to show what I have often said - The Conservatives have no real principles except the pursuit of power ”
The problem with that statement is that if they had chosen to work with the Lib Dems they would have been offered far more cabinet posts/ positions of influence and power etc.
The Lib Dems were totally prepared to work with the Conservatives, so does that mean they have no real principles either?.
They didn’t, which shows they made the choice based on what they felt was best for the City not was best for the Conservative group.
More people voted for the Conservatives in Derby than the Lib Dems. They have a responsibility to implement their manifesto pledges just as any other party given the opportunity to do so.
The Scottish Conservative / Labour approaches are totally irrelevant in this pact. The decision in Derby was totally unique and specific to the City itself and its development. Both Labour and the Conservatives share several key objectives even though how they achieve them would be argued.
You are right about people giving their verdict, let’s see what happens.
40 - It is the Conservative posters who are on here day after day panting and raving as to how bad the Labour government is and yet their first actions on local government in Derby and elsewhere is to join with them . As I have also said before , be prepared for a Grand Coalition after the next GE delivers a hung parliament .
41. Mark, but it’s the same for other parties too. The Libdems here continue to repeat how much illiberal the government is, but they’re sharing power in some councils (as they’re sharing power in other councils). Same for Labour.
Gloucester sounds a lot like Derby with a Conservative Cabinet being supported by the small Labour group and the Lib Dems the main opposition. In Gloucester the other two hate the Lib Dems and have given up burying the knife in each other.
As Kevin Pietersen said of Brett Lee at The Oval Test last year “it was him or me” - in Gloucester at least at local government level it is the Lib Dems or the others. This “fight to the death” resulted in absolutely no seats changing hands this year!
37 - Do you actually have anything insightful to say these days?
37.”The Conservatives have no real priciples except the pursuit of power and will work with any other party to achieve it . Another example was the approaches to Labour by the Scottish Conservatives”
Mark, I don’t know how you can keep a straight face when saying that. Will the Libdems be refusing to work in a coalition after the Scottish elections?
I really can’t see power sharing being an option in a GE though can it?
It was interesting that the Lib Dems were close to sitting down with Blair to discuss a pact prior to New Labour realising that they were headed for a landslide in 97.
Many people I know dislike the Lib Dems more than Labour… and they pretty much hate Labour.
Respect is a different thing, for exmaple you might be able to repsect Blair while loath him.
I think that it is this factor that sometimes allows for unlikely pacts.
Spelling out of kilter in my last post…sorry.
Time for bed. Off on holiday tomorrow, so look forward to catching up in a weeks time.
Yes, time for bed. The Telegraph editorial is apparently ‘Voters are not yet flocking to the tories’, but they’ve not yet updated the news section or inserted the content of the editorial. Ah well, tomorrow…
37 Mark Senior absolute nonsense! Until very recently the best example I have ever seen of LibDem pursuit of power was the then Lib Dem group leader (Inga Lockington) agreeing to support a Conservative adminstration at Ipswich Borough, whilst being a member of the then ruling Labour/Lib Dem administration at Suffolk County. Happily we resolved her problem for her by putting her into opposition on County, indeed reducing the Lib Dems to just 7 members. But this shows just how much hypocrisy the Lib Dems will put up with for a chance at power.
Sean, one interesting thing about the Conservative decline in Cambridge (I don’t know about the other univ cities) is how significantly they have fallen away in wards not particularly associated with the university - ie wards without a significant population of dons or recent Cambridge grads.
The Labour party believes in redistribution and, as they used to say where I was born, that means the Labour policy is- what is yours is mine and what is mine is my own.
Still seems true today. Lots and lots of rich socialists that love redistributing other people’s assets.
51. Don’t you just love champagne socialism.
Good articale in The Gurdian backs up a little of what I said ealier: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1858791,00.html
A man with no substance, but as i said does he need any in this politcal age, probably not, which is sad but true.
Telegraph YouGov Poll:
Con 38, Lab 31, LD 18
Changes since last YouGov (per Telegraph):
Con 0, Lab -2, LD 0
Prime Minister preference:
Cameron 43, Brown 36
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/26/nblair26.xml
YouGov give the Tories a 7 point lead with the LibDems down to 18%. Of course this lead is not good enough for the Telegraph. Surprise!
Labour at 31% as was ICM.
More worrying for Brown is that Cameron has a 6 point lead as preferred PM.36 to 43 per cent.
Yougov in Telegraph
CON - 38 (nc)
LAB - 31 (-2)
LIB DEM - 18 (nc)
OTHERS - 13 I would presume.
“YouGov also gave Gordon Brown cause for concern. It showed that only 36 per cent of respondents wanted him as prime minister, while 43 per cent preferred Mr Cameron.”
Apparently the Telegraph thinks this is bad for the tories. You couldn’t make it up……
Damn, beaten to it!
Gaawd. Triplicate.
The Telegraph has become a tiresome old rag, hasn’t it? I cancelled my print subscription a fortnight ago and will not be taking it up again until they clean up their act - and they can start by getting rid of Simon Heffer.
Cameron lead over Brown is actually 7%, the same as the Conservative lead over Labour.
Interesting that Cameron scores 5% above Conservatives and Brown scores 5% above Labour. It doesn’t say whether Ming was given as an option on the PM question but if he was it looks like he must have scored very low!
AHM Yes, silly stuff, straining to be negative. Do they really have so little regard for the intelligence of their readers?
I don’t think this will be the first time those twins have sunk a good paper, is it?
61 - It would seem so, B2W.
They certainly weren’t much good for The Scotsman either. The deterioration of the Telegraph can be traced back to their acquisition of the title. Time to bring back Conrad Black!
39- Sage. I’m still here… come on now, you know socialism’s biggest supporters are those who can’t be bothered to support themselves and want others to pay for their woodbines, newci brown ale, takeaway food and Sky TV.
Conservatism is about helping everyone do their best and providing for those who genuinely can not. Socialism promotes lazyness and stiffles progress.
Another good poll.
60- Mike L. Actually in the last one I saw the Libdem leader had gone up to 11% from 9%. That’s over a 20% increase!!! No other party leader can claim that level of increase going in to their party conference.
Not long to go now to get him through it. Ok his rating will fall during conference as he gets some publicity but we will build him up again afterwards and keep him in place…
37- Mark. But you are describing your own party not mine!
BTW Mark, I was in Worthing today. It’s a lovely place and I will be back. Will take my bikini next time to get some pulses racing…
Why did you refer to the IWCA as “something called the…” as if to imply that we haven’t already heard of it? Don’t you realise this site is infested with sad anoraks with no life?
55&57. Saw the Telegraph editorial before the poll results, when I saw the headline for it I thought that the tory poll rating had dropped!!!
You really could not credit that 18months ago the tories were beaten in a GE and unable to break out of that core vote box. Now we seem to be steadily widening the gap in the polls. After 10years of appalling poll ratings this should have been seen as encouraging and a foundation to build on. There was no mention of the Gordon Brown/David Cameron personal ratings. Judging by that editorial its not just the politicians who spin a story to suit there own agenda!
3. Cambridge CC has for some years pressured the Colleges to ensure the registration of all students. The Council sees it as the Colleges’ statutory duty to ensure that all residents are registered and its stance, (I think its correct stance), is that this requires registration in Cambridge. Students are, of course, also entitled to register at their family address, (which will in a few cases also be in Cambridge!)
The Colleges now know that it will cause them more hassle if they fail to register their students than it takes to do so. Would that some other local authorities took the same trenchant stance.
The Yougov poll has the combined Lab/Lib total at 49%. Less than half! Remember what I said after the ICM poll, that we could be seeing the return of one party politics soon…
We still have two party politics but the plates are shifting.
Posting from an overnight train in southern France.
The Telegraph coverage of the poll is exactly in line with what I was saying yesterday. The paper’s hostility is a big challenge for Cameron.
The Brown-Cameron question was not a voting intention one because it was a forced choice with no mention of the LDs. As I recall this is the best Cameron position with such a question that there has been. The politically unweighted Mori poll last Sundsy had Brown well ahead.
Surveys like this will reinforce Labour doubts about Brown and might help Tony.
The Lib Dems must be disappointed that there has been no Lebanon bonus with YouGov.
Mike Smithson
I know the Chairman of the Exeter Conservatives Future at the uni… he is a total posh, smug git and is not making the party any more attractive!
26 - I’ve asked this before, but i might as well do so again.
How is student turnout measured?
Alex - just by knowing who the student voters are and checking the marked register to see if they voted.
Student turnout in Exeter was extremely high for those living out - higher than the residents in at more than one ward, but crashed off for those living in Halls (don’t know why..).
70. Very much so; I believe myself and UKPaul also suggested that the Tombstonegraph would spin the YouGov results against Cameron.
Another (somewhat unscientific) thought - if removing the LDs from the Cameron-Brown question results in a favourable result for Cameron, does this suggest that more people who would tick LD tick Cameron rather than Brown when not given the LD option?
73 - let me suggest that it’s perfectly simple. Those living in halls are automatically registered by the university. Ergo they are far more likely to be registered, and therefore their turnout will be lower.
Those living out who choose to register to vote are far more likely to vote at university, whereas many of those who don’t bother will do so because they are registered at home. Your method is simply not satisfactory for measuring student turnout. Effectively students are being counted twice.
My personal turnout when i was at university was 50%. I voted every time.
74.”Another (somewhat unscientific) thought - if removing the LDs from the Cameron-Brown question results in a favourable result for Cameron, does this suggest that more people who would tick LD tick Cameron rather than Brown when not given the LD option? ”
but I thought that in those polls they split in the same way between DC/GB.
77. Ah, do they? I wasn’t speaking from any greater knowledge I have on the subject, I was just referring to this example where the LDs are excluded and it’s measured as (to quote Mike) “the best Cameron position with such a question that there has been”.
Of course there’s no definite causation at all (thus why I call it unscientific), just a passing thought. Let me know if there are any more reliable stats on where LDs go when given a straight Lab-Con or Cam-Brn choice; would be interesting.
Oh and Andrea - for the record, I am refusing to play any more penguin baseball for the next three days.
78. yes, I also think it’s the best Cameron position in that type of question (I haven’t see the yougov wording yet though), because Gordon was usually ahead of Cameron in that question.
So Sean what your saying is, the brighter you are, the less likely you are to be a Conservative voter: yep seems about right to me!
Alex - our experience was very very few voted at home - only those strongly attached to one or other party already did so.
The proportion putting themselves on the register was also very high - at least in the districts which are virtually all student where you can easily tell.
80 - No. Although the differences aren’t as marked as they used to be, Labour’s support is still strongest among people with the lowest level of educational attainment.
That said, intellectual ability and wisdom are not necessarily the same thing. Plenty of academics are extremely capable in their fields, and yet capable of saying and doing extremely stupid things, outside of their fields (eg Richard Dawkins e-mailing voters in Ohio urgind them not to vote for George Bush).
80 - No. Although the differences aren’t as marked as they used to be, Labour’s support is still strongest among people with the lowest level of educational attainment.
That said, intellectual ability and wisdom are not necessarily the same thing. Plenty of academics are extremely capable in their fields, and yet capable of saying and doing extremely stupid things, outside of their fields (eg Richard Dawkins e-mailing voters in Ohio urgind them not to vote for George Bush).
Accumuluating the latest YouGov poll into the poll-of-polls at Martin Baxter’s site takes the Conservatives back into the lead on predicted seats. A notable change is Edinburgh South falling to the Lib Dems. Note, for those who have not visited recently, that there is now a schematic map for the new constituencies.
My seat is right next door to the University of East Anglia and now houses a large number of students. From our canvassing, students who said they’d vote Con generally did whilst the anti’s didn’t vote.
As the remaining Lib Dem City Councillor in Exeter’s Pennsylvania ward, I can ensure you there are few students in the ward Sean. There are some university workers. Duryard ward has a lot of students in halls, mainly 1st years. However, very few of them vote - it is very hard to motivate them as the university won’t let parties leaflet them.
More representative is St.James ward, where many 2nd and 3rd years live in privately rented accommodation and can be leafleted/canvassed. The Lib Dems hold both of the City Council seats and the Greens understandably find their strongest support in the City here.
I can’t disagree with the thrust of your piece. The Tories do very poorly among university students and workers and Exeter’s Duryard and Pennsylvania wards to do provide contradictions to this rule.
We shouldn’t really be surprised. Universities, like the BBC, NHS and local government are all funded by the Government. Sorry, I mean taxpayer. They also share a mindset which is Guardian & BBC-led, which is determinedly Hampstead-left and anti-monarchy. No surprise either that the BBC, Social Services and Local Education Authorities use the Guardian to recruit most senior positions: like recruits like. It’s made those organisations institutionally left-wing.
80 - Although the differences aren’t as marked as they used to be, Labour’s support is still strongest among people with the lowest level of educational attainment.
Maybe that’s why the government has been so happy to collapse educational standards overall - and increase numbers at universities obtaining frothy degrees. The converse would also be true. Conservatives in power would work hard to raise educational standards.
Two bad by-election results for the Tories recently in the London suburbs. Only just hanging on in Enfield, Turkey Street and losing Harrow, Harrow Weald. Was May 2006 a high point for the Tories in London? Future London by-elections will be very interesting.