The Nobel Peace Prize
August 30th, 2006Who will be the 2006 laureate – or laureates?
An interesting market which politicalbetting contributors were discussing yesterday for the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize, to be announced on 13 October. Like many of the bookies’ novelty markets, there’s room for oddsmakers to have some fun. One doubts much money is being taken on Hugo Chávez or Oprah Winfrey.
The favourite, at 5/1 with Paddy Power, is Martti Ahtisaari (pictured), the former Social Democrat President of Finland who has taken various international roles since leaving office. He served on the commission overseeing the decommissioning of IRA weapons in Northern Ireland, and most recently led the negotiations that delivered a treaty this month between the Indonesian government and the rebel movement on Aceh.
A strong CV for the prize? Probably, but the prize is not always easy to predict, and even if Ahtisaari wins he may not be alone. If the award committee is particularly concerned to recognise the Aceh treaty, a joint award for Ahtisaari and the Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono may result. Susilo is himself 6/1 second favourite. Punters should take note that the bookies would settle a joint award using dead heat rules – in other words, your odds would be halved if the prize went jointly to two winners, and cut even more if it were shared more widely.
My thanks to the commenters who began this discussion yesterday, particularly SBS and John O.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson returns on 10th September.
MessageSpace Advertising
Does anyone do a War Prize?
Messrs Bush & Blair would have shared it between them for some years now, but this year might well have been pipped to the post by Mr Olmert.
I think Sam mentioned Vaclav Havel as a runner - any reason why? Great man indeed, but not sure what he’s done *this year* to merit it?
The Nobel Pece Prize is already the War Prize …. Kissinger, Le Duc Tho, Arafat, Peres …. Bliar is a worthy addition to the list.
All that is needed to win the Peace Prize is to start a bloodthirsty war. During a lull in the fighting, you permit yourself to be bought to the negotiating table for a (usually) temporary truce.
1 & 3. Jolly witty. Now, what do you two think about the odds on offer?
The Swedish elections are shaping up to be a close contest - probably the social democrats will hold on even though the conservative alliance is marginally ahead in the polls - see link below for up to date information
http://www.thelocal.se/guides/?to=election&title=the+Swedish+Election+2006
I’m not sure it’s usually a requirement that the achievements be made in the last 12 months, though I think continuing activity is required, and I’m not sure that Vaclav Havel is still doing very much in world affairs. The Committee often uses its prize to promote some cause which is not yet quite assured (the Northern Ireland ‘peace women’ got it on that basis), rather than just for solid achievement of something done and dusted. I wonder if the UN might get it - the Committee might think that it was the right time to strengthen their authority. Not Kofi Annan personally, probabl, because of the difficulties he’s had. Otherwise Ahtisaari could well be a good choice. Or perhaps someone connected with one of the African wars that have made real progress - Angola, Congo 9fragile though it is) and now Uganda?
No glaringly obvious candidates as far as I can see. Under those circumstances they seem to quite often go for an organisation rather than an individual (Medecin Sans Frontiers, Amnesty International, various UN agencies). That might be a possibility.
6. Havel also has the drawback that he fought against communism of course, making him a bourgeois counter-revolutionary.
RE 1, Spartacus, Actually I was thinking of nominating a joint prize for Olmert and Nasrallah for 1. Reducing the amount of armaments held by both sides (admitidly by firing them at each other) and showing the futility of war, when it is has not been clearly thought through.
So do we have a list of pottential candidates?
Has the award ever been awarded to an organisation like say Medican San Frontiers? If so, who could be pn that list?
Is a list of nominees published before the anouncement?
[10] Several institutions have won the Nobel peace prize:
1904 Institut de droit international
1917 International Red Cross, Geneva.
1944 International Committee of the Red Cross
1947 The Friends Service Council (UK) and The American Friends Service Committee (USA) - The Quakers
1954 The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
1969 International Labour Organization (I.L.O.), Geneva.
1981 The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.
1985 International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, Boston
1988 United Nations Peace-Keeping Forces.
1995 Joseph Rotblat (Poland/UK) and the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
1997 International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL) and Jody Williams (USA)
1999 Médecins Sans Frontières, Brussels.
2005 The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Mohamed ElBaradei Egypt)
6 & 7 — Kofi Annan & the UN won it in 2001; Medecins Sans Frontieres in 1999. Since the award is often used to give a shot in the arm to an ongoing process, Nick Palmer is probably right that Africa and Indonesia are the places to look. But as Philip Grant notes in the lead piece, joint awards are likely in the case of peace treaties.
A third category of recipients to consider, besides organisations and negotiators/signatories of peace treaties, is campaigning individuals, such as Jimmy Carter (2002), Shirin Ebadi (2003) and Wangari Maathai (2004) (it says on wikipedia).
At the moment, it looks too open so I won’t be betting. Good luck.
Btw, it is Martti Ahtisaari, not Marti Ahtisaari.
[13] Anyway his original name was Adolfson and he already has the Lenin Peace Prize…
Many thanks to cicero and John L. Most informative.
I do like the idea of Médecins Sans Frontières winning. Having delivered aid on a semi hot front line I know there work is difficult. I understand they were impressed with the Lebonease Red Cross who similarly showed much courage under fire.
On the peace treaty front I think Uganda is far too soon. I personaly do not know how the Acheh situation is panning out, but I think the Tsunami helped in a bizarre way to edge that process on.
Has any one considered Nepal?
One more factor to beware of: the names of nominees are not published, so the prize may be awarded to someone neither you nor your bookmaker has considered. It is not like a horserace or byelection, where only those listed can win.
RE 16, Thank you John L, that does answer a question I had at 10.
14. Other distinguished recepients of that award include Janos Kadar (killed lots of his fellow Hungarians), Julius Nyerere (Tanzanian dictator), Samora Machel (Mozambique dictator), Fidel Castro and Leonid Brezhnev.
We have 191 nominations of which 23 were organisations apparently…oh and look Stalin was once nominated.
Looking at the people who are allowed to nominate, does that somehow encourage a particular ‘type’ of nomination? My guess here is that the same people are often involved most actively year in year out, establishing a pattern. I can see the attraction in giving it to organisations. It’s a grandstanding type of feel to it.
19, Yokel, Where are the nomination rules?
I take your point on grandstanding, but any award of this sort is going to have to have that sort of feel to it surely? Unless you can name one which does not.
Many thanks for the article. I have emailed Betfair who will consider whether or not to open a market. Perhaps somebody else could do so now, saying there is an article here on the prize.
Last year it went to an institution; this year, I feel it is more likely to go to an individual or individuals.
The reason I take an interest in Ahtisaari, is that I lived in Finland during his Presidency. He was something of a joke as President, but everybody assured me he was a truly great diplomat. He did not seek re-nomination as his party’s candidate for president (as he may not have got it). In any case, since about 1990, the President’s role has become far less powerful in Finland, and is now more ceremonial.
I can’t see Havel getting the prize. Perhaps he should have got it in about 1978, or 1990 - but why now?
Controversial choices are available for bets - Mordechai Vanunu, Hugo Chavez, George Bush… please don’t let it be Bono or Bob Geldof!
20.”Where are the nomination rules?”
http://nobelprize.org/nomination/peace/
5- David- thanks very much for the link. What is it about international elections at the minute- all going down to the wire?
This looks like a market to avoid - or a small wager on all the long shots
Their wesbite…some interesting stuff in there.
I’m guessing there might just be a pattern on this type of event now. What money for the Head of Lebanon’s Government?
Chavez no chance, Vanunu nope…..did some of those those good and righteous people listen to U2 20-25 years ago and are now in their 40s?….Ummm….
Thing is Benedict can we use that grandstanding to betting advantage? I think its early in this market yet, surely a few front runners will begin to emerge..maybe pick the one with the most grandstanding potential?
If I read this correctly of their website,do the Norwegians also have a disproportionate influence in nomination?
RE 25 and 26, Yokel I agree with your no hopers.
On the Lebonease front I think Fouad Siniora (PM) has done an amazing job of using his weakness as his streangth (The other alternative being the collapse of the government) I don’t think that makes him prize material. Emille Lahood (President) on the other hand is a prat.
On the Norwegian issue, yes they do have more influence than most, but then Nobel was a Norwegian.
On the grandstanding front, we would need to formulate a list of possible candidates to work out who has the most pottential. I think our list so far is probably incomplete.
O/T for stonecold from yesterdays thread (I have internet access only a.m.)
We in Poole , Bournemouth and Christchurch do not see ourselves as part of the South Coast expansion zone stretching as you say to Eastbourne - we are politically if not geographically in the South West (ugh!!) and have the New Forest between us and the next urban zone
We think we suffer particularly from being in the SW - firstly we miss any SE extra cash despite having property prices higher than most places out of London and secondly as we are remote from the decision making places of the SW (Bristol , Exeter and Taunton)we tend to get overlooked there too for infrastructure monies (Poole New Bridge thankfully excluded)
Sandbanks is both a blessing and a curse upon us in Poole - its amazing beauty and desirability ensures some great tourist numbers and pounds but the effect upon average property prices (which everyone seems to use as a measure of wealth!!) makes Poole appear very rich indeed when in fact there are as many social problems and poverty as in any medium sized town in the South
27 - I thought Nobel was Swedish.
RE 29, John O I have checked, and you are right. I’ll get me coat..
30. That made me laugh out loud, Benedict!
28. Gerry - I tend to think the ‘real’ border of the SW has shifted somewhat to the west in my lifetime, to somewhere between Wareham and Dorchester. The SE corner of Dorset has become much more like the SE of England generally in the last twenty years, and is now very different indeed from the area I live which is in the far west of the county.
32 - “has become much more like the SE of England” - what does that mean?
There are quite a few bits of Kent that do not have much in common with the rest of the SE in character. Romney Marsh, Isle of Sheppey, large parts of east Kent.
Thanks to Philip for this interview, but can I put in a plea for some UK topics next? I find it hard to get excited over the UN in any respect - I think it’s biased and needs reform - and I must confess to also not being enthralled by the French elections.
I am very sorry to see that some activist who attacked a previously selected candidate on the basis of his homosexuality has been admitted to the candidates’ list. We don’t need spoilers who even refuse to vote for our candidates on the list themselves. Somebody dropped the ball in letting this guy have admittance.
Seems to be trouble in the Labour party again re: Blair if the Guardian is to be believed.
SBS- there is an immigrant population at Sheppey dating back from the early 20th century that apparently jumped ship thinking it was New York. As unlucky as life gets!! Doesn’t Bob Marshall Andrews hail from somewhere around there.
You also have Margate, Ramsgate, in Norlfok, Yarmouth, Hastings in Sussex. As bleak and depressing as Morecambe and Birkenhead.
29/30 John O/Benedict. Although Nobel was born in Stockholm in the 1830’s (1835?), it was during the period of the union between Norway and Sweden called Swedeway, Noswede, Noreden or some such thing …
33. I was thinking culturally and economically. For example the local accent is rapidly disappearing in SE Dorset whereas it remains quite evident elsewhere in the county. Also the villages in the area where I grew up are increasingly ‘dormitory’ villages for commuters to the Bournemouth/Poole conurbation, starting to resemble those you see in the Home counties. You are no doubt correct that the SE has its quirky bits too - I was generalising.
35.”Doesn’t Bob Marshall Andrews hail from somewhere around there.”
BMA represents Medway.
34. Commentator, even if they wanted to re-admit him in the party, I think there was no need to put him on the candidates list.
35 - absolutely. But Sheppey takes the biscuit. 35,000 people (of which (2,000 are prisoners - literally - there are 3 prisons). Hardly a tree, and until a new bridge recently, the island was sometimes cut off in stormy weather. Remember this being an issue when they were trying to axe Kent Air Ambulance, and there were no casualty treatment facilities on the island.
It is very bleak! Still, it’s only about 2 hours from London by train. I think with its cutesy expensive villages, most of Dorset is far more south east.
38 Andrea, I heartily agree with you. And this is one of the reasons I post anonymously, I would not as a policy criticize a Conservative candidate under my own name. In this case we are admitting a man who attacked a fellow candidate to the list and there is a danger he may apply to his local seat and be selected for it. In which case we would have a lightning rod for controversy and a man who agitated against a fellow candidate as a PPC and likely, MP, given the state of the polls.
I would urge any Association looking at him to look at his record of attacking a PPC in a key marginal and think twice. I find no excuse for such behaviour.
34, 38, IIRC he was only suspended by the party. His suspension has been lifted. He denies his comments were about the sexuality of the candidate, more aligned to the way the candidate selection was interfered with by CCO. I have seen other selections cocked up in this way by CCO. However I have also seen this used as a cover for some shocking prejudices which have no place in a modern political party. So I don’t think he should be on the candidates list. However he isn’t A list, and as a local would be welcome to seek nomination for his local seat under the rules, wouldn’t he?
RE 36, JackW, can I take me coat off then?
Re 34/38, Who are we talking about here?
41. Ben, from The Times piece it seems he’s suggesting that the deselection vote was somehow influenced and not the original one (”Mr Laws said that Mr Crossley survived because of “the manipulation of Conservative Central Office” who had agents “present in large numbers to stage-manage proceedings”). At the time the tories said Crossley survived over-whelming the deselection vote, but there were rumours it was close.
42. Benedict. Ashley Crosseley, Ian Laws, the Falmouth and Camborne deselection vote…ah, don’t forget Candy Atherton, her assistant….welcome to the F&C 2005 GE saga. No wonders the Libdems won from third place!
I think the whole thing disgraceful behaviour and if I were still a Con Org I would be very wary if either CV passed my desk for selection. Any association chairman who doesn’t ask ‘the question’ as to this incident should not be in post. There are too many black clouds here for anyone to come out of it smelling of roses.
Should not be on the list. Simple as.
SBS 39- I remember driving into Sheppey and noticing the landscape you describe. Bleak and barren.
Cleverly linking Sheppey to the Nobel theme of the day I had a converstaion once with the Chief Executive at the local District Council- he said he was thankful for the cheap supplies of Dutch ecstasy coming through- pills apparently selling on the island for 50p a pop. Transformed the local youth population from beery and leery to loved up pacifists. A favourite pastime for the kids was to take ecstasy and harmlessly wile around the time sitting on the buses- and this during school times. Sounds quite good fun!! If I can get hold of the names of the local Sheppey drug suppliers could add them to the Nobel nominations list. Services for the community and all.
35-Andrea- thanks for the BMA reminder. Close enough. Have you got any more cross dressing photos stored away in your locker??
I think Blair actually pips Bush for the Nobel War Prize, because Bush, at least, had the excuses of 9/11 and the attempt by Saddam on George Bush’s life. Blair just joined in for the hell of it.
Moreover, all the specious drivel about Weapons of Mass Destruction landing on Hyde Park within three seconds was dreamt up by Blair and his New Labour chums, coz Blair couldn’t sell the war to the Brits any other way. Bush went along with this mendacious approach to please Blair.
So, Blair gets the War Prize. In fairness, I hope he shares the bloodmoney with all his Cabinet allies and all the other MPs who voted for the invasion.
40 dead in Iraq today already. The new security policy seems to be failing. I read somewhere that this new policy was “Iraq’s last chance”. Sweet.
RE 43 and 44, Many thanks for the info, and yes Ben, I agree that I would steer clear of people who are good at infighting.
43. A UKIP vote was also involved in the suspections:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/08/07/ntory107.xml
A local councillor called Crossley a “sanctimonious shit”…at a local meeting, a local farmer was defending Crossley and anotehr man present asked him who he was. At that point always the same councillor shouted “‘One of Ashley’s boyfriends” (many people present apparently laughed). Crossley stood up asking an apology because he thought the comment was out of order. The acting chair from Conservative central office shouted at Mr Crossley to ’sit down and shut up’” .
Another party official called Crossley’s mother and told her “people like her son should be put in a dustbin and pissed on”.
I don’t think I’ll visit Falmouth in the future….
45 Sorry-Andrea- cross dressing photos- I was referring to Bob Marshall Andrews. Wouldn’t like to spread salacious gossip about PbCOMS foremost analyst!!!
44 Ben, I agree, and I am afraid I am thinking two words and they are “Howard Flight”.
Just from his being on the general list, non A list, the Times has covered the story. Imagine if he were selected, the press would be about his attacks on a PPC in a marginal seat, one he implied he didn’t even vote for although he was the Tory PPC.
All the party would get is questions about are Cameron’s reforms for real. It would be a human interest story that would run and run and undermine all our progress in the polls.
I do hope no Association Chairman is foolish enough to consider this man. Even if they like him in his home seat they should think what it would do the Conservative cause nationally to focus on this man and his attacks on the Conservative candidate in a key marginal - especially if he replaces him.
No thanks.
32/37 Fred
You are absolutely correct about the “real” border of the SW being nearer Bere Regis I reckon - Wareham is really a dormitory town of Poole as are Corfe Mullen and the Ltychetts - Ferndown & Verwood are very much dormitories of Bournemouth
However the political boundary of the SW is at the Hampshire border at Ringwood and that is what I am complaining about - we are too remote from Taunton where GOSW is based or Exeter where the Regional Assembly sits and tend therefore to get left out on a limb as most of the investment tends to go to Bristol/Bath or “deprived” Cornwall
51 - I think there is a case for setting up a new region called “the extreme south east”, to cover much of the Kent coast, and east Kent. (Whitstable can be an island within this.) Might get EU funding.
Andrea, I know this sort of thing upsets you, but I just noted the date on the Telegraph article - August 2004! I wouldn’t want to hang the current Officer Team in F&C unless they are the same people having been reinstated.
However the people then deserved to be suspended on the evidence provided here so far. If not ejected from the party.
Again, like racism, homophobia is not a party political problem, but an educational problem. So both the main parties suffer from it in their membership. Curiously I don’t think the Lib Dems do, but that might be because they have no natural supporters in the working classes.
Sorry, just realised the stupidity of my last post re homophobia in the Lib Dems. It would, of course, be evident in those members who think homosexuality is a sin against their religion. Not something I have encountered in Woodbridge, but I am sure it exists. Sorry. All three parties have an equal problem with it because it exists in the general population. Education is the source of a solution.
“The move has astonished modernisers within the Conservative Party because Ian Laws was suspended after demanding publicly the removal of Ashley Crossley as candidate in Falmouth & Camborne before the last general election.
Mr Laws is now one of the favourites to succeed Mr Crossley as the Tory candidate in the highly marginal seat, which the Liberal Democrats captured from Labour last year.
Mr Crossley, 32, a City barrister, survived a confidence vote within the Tory association in a row over his suitability, which was clouded by allegations of homophobia.”
Ben, I cannot agree with you about religion. My own religion, Christianity, argues that only married people should have sexual intercourse and I believe that to be true. However, there is nothing to say that a homosexual person or a cohabiting person should not be an effective MP. Whatever the religious beliefs I have about sexual morality - which are pretty mainstream in major world religions of many stripes - it does not follow that I support discrimination in the workplace, in housing, in education or for that matter in public office. I have no problem at all with a homosexual MP and think MPs’, and PPCs’, private lives are none of my business.
My concern would be only with Mr. Crossland’s politics. I am aghast to think he was discriminated against on the basis of his sexuality and dismayed to find Mr. Laws might be distracting from our revival in the polls by being selected to replace him.
“Curiously I don’t think the Lib Dems do, but that might be because they have no natural supporters in the working classes.”
The LDs have always got a fair working class vote in Cornwall and parts of Devon. For example, in North Devon, the Labour vote has always been low, and there are some poor working class areas that have probably always been Liberal. It is difficult to say if homophobia was a large factor in Jeremy Thorpe’s defeat in 1979, but I’m sure it played its part. Of course, there were other factors at play too.
54. I think a lot of drivel is talked about homophobia. If you define homophobia as simply ‘disapproving of homosexuality or active homosexuals’, as some do - then you clearly imply that 80% of humanity is homophobic, given the attitude to homosexuality of the world’s great religions.
We cannot seriously believe 80% of the world is made up of evil, hate-filled bigots, can we? Are we going to deny the right of 80% of the world to stand in elections??
Surely the more important definition of homophobia is this: when you turn this disapproval into overt discrimination. That’s where we should draw the line, I think.
53. sorry Ben, I’m not following you. I never mentioned the current Officer Team. I just linked that article and some of the things happened in the run up of 2005 GE for Benedict White who didn’t know who we were talking about.
And would you agree with me Sean T that that line was crossed in Falmouth by Mr. Laws in his attempts to deselect Mr. Crossland?
59. To be honest I don’t know what precisely happened in Falmouth! Shocking for a Cornish pb commenter, I know. There was evidently a kerfuffle.. but what exactly?
59. sorry to be pedant, but it’s Crossley, not Crossland. Btw, he was part of DD’s team during the leadership campaign.
51. Gerry - yes I take your point. All the more reason, I think, to abolish the nonsensical, wasteful ‘regional’ assemblies and have proper local government.
SBS- you forget Broadstairs in your Kent description, known affectionaly by locals as the “jewel in the turd”.
I had quite a few dealings with Sir Sandy Bruce Lockard- council leader for Kent. Tory, but as New Labour as they come policywise, and a good friend of Prezza. He was great at pulling in European funds into East Kent.
Dealing though with East Kent is a bit like Africa- a question of best of intentions, but where do you start? You end up simply wasting money on unsustainable initiative after unsustainable initiative.
Sir Sandy Bruce Lockard though is a visionary- his work on the Thames gateway, the channel links, and Ashford is unbelievable. He is pretty unique amongst local political leaders- someone who has overseen massive change in his community, has driven it forward, and been politically successful. Undoubtedly the most successful and influential Tory anywhere in the last 10 years.
56. Rather than homophobia, perhaps his suspicion of involvement in a serious crime was the real issue.
Sean T:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2334108,00.html
The first, but I fear, not the last, piece of negative coverage for this man. I trust he will not be allowed to become the distraction that wrecks our campaign
65. I think the Tory association down there needs to avoid other controversy like that (or any other type of controversies). They don’t exactly help to keep the campaign focused on the real targets. But it seems that they like troubles!
I think they need a fresh start: no more people involved in that saga. For ex A lister Fiona Kemp can be a good candidate for Truro and Falmouth.
64 Not to mention Auberon Waugh’s candidacy!
66 Andrea you should come and work for CCHQ.
67. Ha ha yes..the Dog Lover’s Party, wasn’t it?
64 - of course, there was the trial too. I remember canvassing there in 1990, and people were saying “I always voted for Mr Thorpe, until that unfortunate incident with the dog.” I am sure there would have been some homophobia too - but this was 27 years ago, and a lot of voters have died since then (probably nearly half the electorate).
Sir Sandy Bruce Lockart - about as good as they come in local government. You don’t find many people like that in any of the parties.
69 - Well, someone had to stand up for Rinka RIP. All very well bunnies going to France.
69 - Waugh’s election leaflet began “Rinka Lives! Woof, woof! Vote Waugh if you believe that dogs deserve the right to life liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
Lord Denning granted Thorpe an injunction, banning its distribution on grounds of contempt of court.
70 - I think he’s a peer (non-contributory :wink:) now, isn’t he?
73. Rinka is a peer now?!
74 - In a canine heaven. I’m sure Sir Sandy is also a dog lover.
72. Perhaps then it was the candidacy of Bill Boaks ‘Democratic Monarchist Public Safety White Resident’ that did for Thorpe…
69 / 70 - Rinka, the most famous dog in the world!
Actually, Thorpe didn’t do all that badly in 1979. North Devon had never been all that safe a seat for him. Despite everything he still managed to get almost 37%, which was only about 7% down on what he’d got as party leader in 1970.
76 - Fred, I though ROAD safety was a key component of Boaks’s, er, ‘platform’
75. John, she’s still with us and she provides a great deal of inspiration….
SBS- Sir Sandy (Lockart not Lockard- sorry) is one of the few politcians who doesn’t let politics get in the way. Just does what he thinks is best and gets on with it.
His work in Kent is slightly reminiscent of Heseltine’s inner city development work from the 80’s- except with Kent there is no democratic deficit. Sir Sandy uses an electorally accountable local authority as the vehicle of change. Hezza simply bypassed local politics and set up a series of quangos (pretty effective all the same, especially for those who think politicians cannot achieve anything)
I am sure in the future the reputation of John Prescott will be revisited. People like Lockart will vouch for Prescott’s work in less turbulent times. Even Tory local politicians must be able to appreciate the size of the task that Prescott has faced, and how he has attempted to make a positive difference to how local authorities work and operate. It is a massive shame that this is rarely highlighted as folk (mostly completely ignorant of Prescott’s work) like just to put the proverbial boot in.
77 - I’m not altogether convinced that an adverse 12.4% swing can be reasonably described as not doing that badly.
63. 80. A new career as a hagiographer beckons…
OT: I see New Labour’s puritanical and authoritarian crusade continues apace, with the de-facto criminalisation of the bondage culture and community:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/berkshire/5297600.stm
Prepare for news stories of ordinary cul-de-sac couples being banged-up for the outrageous criminal behaviour of showing a friend a pic of anything leathery and painful looking.
81 - Under normal circumstances no. But when half the country still thought he’d tried to murder his gay lover
(and was involved in killing a dog - in a nation of pet lovers), he might have done a lot worse!
I seem to remember one of the Liberal candiates seaking the Exeter seat made great play in the selection being disgusted at the Labour MP being opely gay and living with a male MP. Homophopia unfortunately is not confined to just the fringe of the Tory party. Just visit any Labour club, the old club in Little Lever in Bolton, now closed down was a typical example.
O/T Layers market ?
Next General Election - Most Seats
Lab 2.24/2.3
Con 1.75 (!)/ 1.81
Total Matched £115,915.
RE 48, Thanks Andrea, but whilst the infighting was wrong, there did not seem to be anything homo phobic from that report.
However memories are stirring about the incedent as a whole.
87. uhm, maybe you haven’t read it well. Allegations of homophobia were made by Crossley’s supporters (and one of them in the middle of that piece). Naturally they were denied by the other faction.
85 - I thought it was the Tory MP, a GP, who was outraged at Ben Bradshaw’s sexuality. But there could have been a Liberal after cheap votes too.
89 - sorry “I thought it was the Tory candidate…”
83. You seem personally rather affronted by this..any reason?
O/T my local newspaper is running an on-line poll to see if people should be fined for missing a GP or hospital appointment. It comes after the local hospital revealed part of it’s deficit is down to missed appointments. Surprisingly people voted NO to the question, by 84% no, 15% yes. Any thoughts?
O/T: the other day Rik Willis was having an argument with a fellow Conservative on here about whether paid Tory agents were necessary or a waste of space.
Given his employment with Rob Wilson MP perhaps this story about the (unpaid) Tory agent for the Reading East MP might make him change his mind:
http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/2003/2003351/drinkdriving_tory_banned_from_road ?
92 - I’d vote OK for fine for missing or running late on appointment providing the Hospital equally pays patients something if they have to wait more than 15 minutes for their appointment and the equivalent to the fine if patients have to wait more than 30 minutes
83- That Lady has done a great job. I think you will find her campaign had cross party support.
Only sickos and freaks like that kind of filth.
Mark, will you be defending child porn websites next or maybe animal sex ones?
Tyson, Re Prezza an local government, I think you are looking at him with rose tinted spectacles.
As an example, in local planning there is the issue of “pre determination”, which is where say I might have a view on whether or not a project should go ahead. If I have such a view I can’t vote.
I could for example have been elected in Lewis or Brighton on a pro or indeed anti stadium platform, but not be allowed to vote because of this new ruling from two shags.
The pathways initiative is going right over the heads of local people as well, bull dozing houses even where conservation groups believe they can be used, in favour of large scale developers being able to do what they want to do.
Not good im my view I am afraid Tyson. Nice taht you like two Conservatives though.
RE 83 Mark, I seem to remember from the trial that the accused adiction to violent porn consisted of two visits. If taht is the case he clearly was not addicted. I can make two visits here is 2 minutes let alone what happens over a day!
87/88. Btw, I’m pretty sure there were other issues involved (the UKIP video for ex) Anyway as I said, I think they need a fresh start and in a Falmouth Tory members’ shoes, I wouldn’t vote for either Crossley and/or his old opponents in the next selection process.
RE 88, Andrea, Firstly in the Telegraph article there was no mention, and whilst there was in the Times article these do seem insubstntial there.
I do note that others here have talked of homophobic baracking at meetings, which is wrong, but was it Mr Laws?
One thing concerns me though. Clearly crap candiates are going to be selected from time to time. Can we only get rid of the straight white male crap ones, else face cries of homophobia, sexism or racism? I don’t wish to imply he was crap, but he may have been.
85/ any Lib Dem ppc who publicly stated homophobic views would be slung out, and rightly so! Its a non issue with us. Not so with many tory members.
95: DC, do you understand the principle of consenting adults?
Re hospital appointments - was told that someone needed to cancel an appointment - the matter having been dealt with by her GP, but was unable to get through to the hospital appointment line to cancel - “your call is important to us….”
98. Benedict again, read paragraph 5!
(and btw, I linked the Torygraphy piece to show there were other reasons too for the local fights)
Re 97, Andrea, I agree with that. Witout a fresh start there will be rancour. Crossley is on the A list so can get selected anywhere.
RE 95, DC, you and I part company on this one. Firstly, government managed to close down radio fast as a tool of free speech when it came out, and I don’t want to see the same happen again.
Secondly, as I stated above, all I heard of this alledged addiction is that he looked at websites of that nature twice. The causal connection is not there.
Thirdly, people (including either a Conservative MP or PPC, can’t remember which) die in bizare sex acts every so often. You can’t ban stupidity.
Fourthly, Exactly how are we defining this type of picture as opposed to porn containing adults over the age of 18?
Not only am I against it as an old net hand, it will be a dogs breakfast at best.
RE 102, Paragraph 5 of which one, torygraph or the murdoch rag?
98/99 Although procedures do exist to remove a PPC once selected it would have to be a pretty significant matter that was not known at the time of selection. I think part of the problem is that in order to combat some percieved homophobia candidates selection panels are not allowed to inquire as to someone’s sexuality. Whilst this should make no difference, it doesn’t allow for the electorate. There is a small bias in the electorate, and candidates need to appeal to as many people as possible. So unfortunately it is more of an issue in rural areas than in metropolitan areas where sexuality is much less of an issue. Much as I might like it to be different, a homosexual candidate would find it difficult to get elected in Suffolk Coastal IMHO. This is because many voters in Suffolk Coastal feel that sexuality is an issue. I don’t, but then equally I don’t think the colour of someone’s skin should be an issue but it would be. Not with party members so much as with the electorate in general. The proportion of the population that is out homosexual or from a Black or Ethnic Minority is so much smaller here in rural Suffolk than in central London, that it would be a problem because the candidate wouldn’t reflect the community he or she were trying to serve.
103. Benedict, is he on A List? He wasn’t in the original one, but he can go in it with the top up.
Ah, Torygraph. But it’s just the homophobic baracking at meetings..so it’s not that it’ll give you great revelations.
(btw, why are we discussing it?)
99. SAC. I recalled to have read a similar thing to the one reported by S Penketh. And I thought to have read it here on pb.com. So after a brief search, here’s the post:
“Sadly, the Lib Dem was not very much better in 97 - I went along to his adoption meeting and he was greatly exercised by the fact that Mr Bradshaw at that time shared a flat with two other people - both men, no less! I still regret not having walked out.
by James January 20th, 2005 at 3:05 pm “
100/103 Sorry guys but I have to agree with DC on this one. If you look at the article linked by Mark, the websites we are talking about show forced acts and strangulation. This is not something that ‘consenting adults’ normally undertake. Or at least not in my experience! For once this is a Government regulation that is sensible. Whether it will be enforceable remains to be seen, mainly because of the difficulty in defining it, but they manage to enforce rules against child pornography.
Let’s not forget that the ‘models’ on these sites are subject to horrendous abuse and are often not ‘consenting adults’ but victims of abuse.
Should be banned.
This legislation on violent pornography is actually quite clever despite the usual moans from the legal profession and libertarians. Rather than being seen as legislation to attack dirty minded but otherwise harmless Bob of Suburbia it may be the equivalent of nailing Al Capone on a tax evasion type of charge. Used intelligently it may well be used to lock away a few people who are a genuine danger..or just saddos who need a slap. Society could do with both being taken out of circulation.
On the Swedish election, how very Nordic to have the ‘Moderate Party’.
For all fans of the Blair succession saga interesting article in the Times. It’s the last paragraph that is most interesting.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2334107,00.html
105. “I think part of the problem is that in order to combat some percieved homophobia candidates selection panels are not allowed to inquire as to someone’s sexuality.”
Time for a great Dinky’s quote. Selection meeting, Dinky is asked if he’s married or if he has intentions to get married…his reply:
“Put it this way. If I was selected for this seat, you wouldn’t have to worry about the sheep”
100/103. Mark/Benedict. I see no justification for anything that attempts to glorify or glamourises sexual violence.
It was Stephen Milligan you are thinking of Benedict, who was MP for Eastleigh. We lost the by election.
108. Yes if he doesn’t realise that he is already a lame duck, he really has lost the plot.
Absolutely the way to deal with an impertinent question. However the question isn’t asked anymore. Apparently if it was asked then the candidate could have a case against the association under employment law if he/she wasn’t successful.
I know of at least one candidate where this was a big factor in his selection, the agent was very very worried that when his sexuality was revealed many activists would turn away, simply because they were not used to homosexuality. I have to admit that whilst racism is now seen as totally taboo (I’m not denying it still exists but it is not displayed anymore) homophobia isn’t, to our shame.
O/T - Statement today on Ed Balls website saying he still supports the campaign to overturn the Boundary Commission decision.
http://www.edballs.com/
Underneath there is a link to a statement by Jon Trickett MP. In this he says:
“it is my intention, and that of other local MPs to continue to pursue this in parliament and the courts.”
What does everyone think they will now do? The Boundary Commission have said they will issue their final report before the end of October. So if they want to try to stop this they will need to start legal action quickly.
If the report is issued then the only possible step would be to either get the Labour Party to vote against the whole Boundary Commission report in the House of Commons or maybe for the Secretary of State to make an amendment to the report before it is laid before Parliament?
106/ Andrea - if this is true, a wrong un.
To be fair you have to admit that its very uncommon with the Lib Dems. In fact an occassional challenge on the doorstep that I face from the electorate is that we’re too ‘pro’ gay people. Nonsense of course. Its about equality of respect for all irrespective of sexual orientation, colour etc….
RE 106, Andrea, Actually I don’t know why I thought Crossley was on the A list, but he certainly hopes to stand somewhere.
The homophobic barracking whilst wrong may have been peripheral to Mr Laws campaign, is the point I would consider.
That said, what ever the reason for wanting him out, it should have been discussed quietly.
Why are we discussing this? No idea. I thought we were trying to see who the contenders could be for the Nobel peace prize.
114. SAC, to be fair, I don’t have a clue if it’s true or not.
112. Ben, do you really think it would be so difficult for a gay candidate in Suffolk? Other rural places have gay MPs (ex Nick Herbert in Arundel)
115- Benedict, maybe we can put forward Mr Crossley and Mr Law for the nobel prize
Are Labour trying to put a block on the boundary changes altogether, in the hope that the litigation drags on and they can have an election in the meantime with the old boundaries?
If so that is bang out of order.
I have heard many times that the current boundaries are quite seriously unfair to the Tories in England - how did it get like that? I appreciate there have been population shifts, but how has it got so out of whack in the last 9 years since the Tories were in power (I assuming it was fairer then as they were in power and would have made sure of it)?
I’m not saying it is impossible Andrea, indeed I wouldn’t care either way! What I’m saying is that it would be an added handicap. Something that some people wouldn’t like. I would hope that it wouldn’t be an issue. It certainly would have been an issue when JSG was selected. I don’t think it will be by the time he decides to stand down, so barring any accidents (God forbid) it won’t be an issue I have to tackle.
I can say that the deselected UKIP candidate at the last election in Suffolk Coastal told me in 2004 that he wouldn’t vote for me because I had a ‘Paki’ on my leaflet. I told him I didn’t want his vote anyway if that was his opinion. The ‘Paki’ was Bashir Khanbai, who is from Tanzania IIRC. Mind you in light of more recent revelations I’m not sure I should admit having him on my leaflets!
111 There really seems to be an attempt amongst some people in the Blair camp (very possibly including the man himself) to hold on or work a sabotage plan against Gordon, either of which could be absolutely deadly all round.
The other possibility is that Tony is going to step down sooner than suggested and he’ll deliver this announcement in shock fashion but it seems doubtful.
Interesting times and I can definitely see Blair not going as the widely circulated plan of 2007 handover suggests. Something isn’t right at all, I’d be surprisied if there isn’t some blood letting. Brown’s warnings on Blairites ot stirring the pot is perhaps born out of fear, he wants no competition but it looks like he is going to get it.
RE 109, Andrea,
RE 117, Do you think so? I thought we were not suitable people to nominate? Nice idea though
122. Btw, benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
The new Shedindan party is called Scotland’s Socialist Movement
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm
RE 110, DC. Yes that was him. So are you saying you don’t like it because he lost us a by election? That this sort of behaviour between consenting adults should be banned? (Found legal at some court hearing some time ago), or merely pictures of it are not allowed?
Then there is the issue of definition. What if someone likes being tied up and whipped till they bleed? Some do. In parts of Italy they practice self flagulation in public, until they bleed. Aledgedly Opus Dei do as well. Want to ban that? or just pictures of it?
122. btw, Benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
Sheridan’s new party will be called Solidarity - Scotland’s Socialist Movement
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm
122. btw, Benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
Sheridan’s new party will be called Solidarity - Scotland’s Soc*alist Movement
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm
122. btw, Benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
Sheridan’s new party will be called Solidarity - Scotland’s Socialist Movement
122. btw, Benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
Sheridan’s new party will be called Soli*arity - Scotland’s Socialist Movement
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm
RE 123, No, but then again I have a thick skin, so don’t usualy notice.
On the Tommy Sheridan bit, well, it would make a good soap opera.
123 et al ….. We get the point !!
On the Blair Brown thing, I genuinly think Tony will stay well past his sell by date, or at least will try. I may be wrong by I detect vanity and “purpose”.
Also it does look like factions are gearing up for some serious in fighting. Someone pass the popcorn. I look forward to a nice relaxing bit of viewing.
122. btw, Benedict, did I sound harsh at 88?
Sheridan’s new party will be launched this weekend
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/5297040.stm
RE 132, Andrea, there is an echo in here somewhere..somewhere…somewhere…
sorry for all those posts! But they didn’t appear immediately. So I was wondering if they contained a banned word! (you can see from the various attempt I made).
Now I look like a psycho (please, Philip, delate some of them!)
132 Andrea. Enough already !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
134 Andrea. “Now I look like a psycho….”
As long as there’s no shower scene !!
124. Banning the activities of the crackpots of Opus Dei seems eminently sensible to me.
x18 The boundaries for constituencies are changed every 8-12 years by the boundary commisison, which is independent. See the attached link for how this works:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/geography/westminster.asp
Obviously people move about in the interim, particularly from inner cities into the suburbs. Labour voters tend to spread out quite evenly, but Tory voters tend to huddle together in the suburbs, which leads to large concentrations of people in a few seats. When the boundaries are re-drawn (to make sure each contituency has roughly the same amount of people in them) this should get redressed.
The 2005 election was fought on the 1994 boundaries.
Andrea - I asked James about the quote you dug out at 106. He can’t post here right now but he told me the following:
“I can’t remember raising the issue but if I did refer to the candidate then that was an error - it was definitely the guest speaker at the adoption meeting - I think he was a local radio DJ”
We’ve been comparing notes about the candidate himself and, as far as we know, he was a good egg and not at all homophobic. The guy at the selection meeting sounds to have been well out of order - but I don’t know if he would have been a member even.
138. The posts suddenly dry up. Perhaps in anticipation of the good-humoured discussion seen so far today coming to an abrupt end?
Smowflake, Just out of mild speculation what line of business are you or your partner/husband/civilpartner (delete as appropriate) in?
20.”Something isn’t right at all, I’d be surprised if there isn’t some blood letting. Brown’s warnings on Blairites ot stirring the pot is perhaps born out of fear, he wants no competition but it looks like he is going to get it.”
Yokel, I have to agree with you on this. If Tony Blair really wanted to see Gordon Brown succeed him in a smooth dignified way, which benefited both of them he would have done so by now.
I just can’t see TB sitting in the front row looking delighted and ready to shake hands with a triumphant GB following a leadership contest. :D:
You have lost control of the agenda when authority breaks down and you have Blairites and Brownites openly briefing against each other. I think a civil war has already started in the Labour party.
x41. Husband is a java programmer, I’m in finance.
143 - Java is a big place. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is a Javanese (and not easily programmed), so we’re now right back on topic
144. LOL. To go just briefly OT again, what do you and Ben do?
The law against “possessing violent pictures” is plainly absurd - the Dangerous Dogs Act of our day. But worse. How surprising that this government should immediately reach for Prohibition when it encounters a problem.
The law is, it seems, going to make it an imprisonable offence to possess images - (i.e. look at them on the Net) which merely show violence which “appears to be life threatening”.
“Appears to be”? Appears to whom? What’s life threatening? some people like scarfing each other until they pass out during sex. That’s dangerous. But not illegal. So it will be legal to do it but not legal to look at it on the Net. In fact it will be illegal to look at someone simply pretending to do it.
Let’s get this straight. You will be liable for three years in prison for looking at someone only pretending to do something entirely legal.
What about al Qaeda beheading videos? Maybe we should all be prosecuted for watching those on the BBC? What about King Lear? What about documentaries about the Nazis? They show violence? What about that clip of the executed VietCong? will that be illegal? What about people who nail themselves to crosses in the Phillipines, will images of that be banned? What about live bullfighting on satellite TV?
FFS.
139. Oxonian, I just cut and pasted the quote. I mentioned the day of the posting, so he can go back and check.
146 I find it hard to see how one could come up with a definition that was legally watertight.
Interestingly enough, consent is not a legal defence to a charge of assault, so consensual S & M remains a criminal offence.
143. You wouldn’t by any chance be working for a company called UKplc? I believe the finance department is next door to company HQ.
RE 146, Sean, we agree.
RE 148, Sean, I thought that had been dealt with? or ws it that it was raised on appeal and still found to be ileagal?
Re 145, Snowflake, I set up networks, Linux systems, and spam kiling boxes.
Do you have