Meta-gambling
September 1st, 2006Prescott, the cowboy and the casino
Something is pleasingly self-referential about betting on gambling itself. For some time, one of the bookies offered a market on whether it would win a licence to operate in Finland – they can’t, presumably, have taken much money on it, but the concept was a neat hedge against the profits at stake in winning the licence. And now through Betfair (look under Politics >> UK >> Super Casino Licence) you can bet on the location of the single UK “supercasino”, enabled by recent changes in the gambling laws.
The markets have this as essentially a two-horse race: Blackpool is the 0.67/1 favourite with the Millennium Dome in Greenwich at 1.02/1. The Casino Advisory Panel, whose preliminary report favoured the Dome, is now reconvening to hear each of the seven candidates put their cases.
The Dome bid could have done without much of the publicity it’s had recently. The Dome’s owner, Philip Anschutz, has had some pretty-well documented contacts with John Prescott. And local religious groups weren’t too pleased when it was made out that they’d be happy to see the casino.
We probably should believe the panel’s chairman, Stephen Crow, who was idiosyncratic but clear in denying that the Dome was a foregone conclusion: “Is Greenwich a done deal for the regional casino? The answer to that question is no. I do not know how I can spell it out. It is N-O: we have made no such decision.”
But has enough changed to justify the panel’s provisional recommendation not being favourite for the final license? Prescott himself has survived for now, so it’s hard to see the Dome as punctured by that or anything else.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson returns on 10th September.
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OK Phillip this is interesting, but the market has only matched about £2K. Hardly the stuff of huge profits!
Sorry to go off thread so early, but I was woken this morning to BBC Breakfast news, with the Times running on yet another Blair mug, the Lib Dems coming out against the ‘quackery’ of homeopathy, and an interesting bit about green taxes and the Conservatives support for a Climate Change Bill, proposed by Friends of the Earth.
Poor old Tony Juniper could barely contain himself! Friends of the Earth are supping with ‘the Tories’, no, quickly corrected, the Conservative Party! All those years of calling us the devil suddenly slung into reverse gear thanks to Change to Win and the realisation that DC has done more in a year to push forward the Green agenda as mainstream than the left have done in the last 10 years.
1. Coming out against homeopathy sounds like the most sensible thing the Lib Dems have done in many years.
1. “All those years of calling us the devil suddenly slung into reverse gear thanks to Change to Win and the realisation that DC has done more in a year to push forward the Green agenda as mainstream than the left have done in the last 10 years. ”
All those years calling them in varios ways and now they’re your best friends just because DC told it so.
Btw, does Charles Clarke realize that he had a part in all those things he listed as “failures” of Labour?
What annoyed me about it was ‘Dr Evan Harris’ using his ‘Dr’
I have no doubt that he is entitled to, it’s just I’ve never seen him use it before, so to suddenly use it today implies an attempt to give his words added credibility.
Andrea, I’m sure you’re aware by now that I’m a ‘lefty’ myself according to ConHome! Anyway, some of us have a history of supporting green issues. My MP was described by Friends of the Earth as the best Environment Secretary for years once. We just haven’t shouted from the rooftops. Or plonked windmills on them.
I hope the MagLev train won’t wipe everyone’s ID card though!
4. Ben, I think Evan Harris has often used the “Dr” in the past too.
Evan Harris always uses the Dr; he’s often on the radio, and he’s always addressed as Dr Harris there, and I’ve also seen him speak in person and the title has been used on those occasions too.
5.Ben, don’t sell yourself short we are part of a militant socialist minority with idea’s above our station. :D:
6. Andrea, the SSP soap opera continues. Tommy Sheridan and Colin Fox interviewed seperately on local TV last night. Don’t think those two will be asked to go head to head in a tv interview anytime soon.
Good Morning all , East Staffs DC Uttoxeter Town was a comfortable Conservative hold : - Con 664 Lab 255 UKIP 104 . The Town Council result was Con 588 Lab 247 UKIP 102 LibDem 75 - 2003 result ( 2 seats ) Con 901/897 Ind 833 Lab 477/449
9 - The SSP are now having to sell their property
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1290352006
Evan Harris was a GP in a former life IIRC, so fair play to him when commenting about medical matters surely?
Second time he’s been on the radio this week. This time i agree wholeheartedly with him. as homoeopathy is clearly bunk. The previous time he was on about IVF, and more or less said that fathers make no difference to child’s upbringing, which is total nonsense, and I found annoying and insulting as a father myself.
He was my MP at University for a time after 1997. Bright bloke but often annoying and worng IMHO
Another contributor (on radio 5) said that the government is now effectively licensing the emperor’s new clothes, or “Prince Charles new clothes in this case” :laugh:
Thanks Philip. I just mopped up all the evens. Price is now 1.5 for Greenwich. Sorry all you other punters - you should log on earlier.
try again
11. Marcia, will someone buy that thing?!
2 - So does that make the Lib Dem homeophobic?
I don’t know Rik, but it makes a change for people to welcome Lib Dem’s coming out…
11. I think that a supporter has also requested that a loan he gave them be repaid.
Sorry. That was below the belt.
19. Go and hide in your dark room!
I am now going Andrea. Will be back later having served my punishment. Which is to explain Local Government to some Modern Apprentices. Poor them. Wish someone would explain it to me! Lol!
16 Rik. Very good.
BTW discussion on 5Live presently on the Scottish firefighters and their refusal to hand out fire safety leaflets at a gay pride event.
22. Had they been muslims do we think they would have got into the same trouble?
Tonbridge DC Ightham result Conservative hold but big swing to LibDems Con 352 LibDem 301 - 2003 result Con 415 LibDem 142
23 Questioner. Why wouldn’t they ?
What’s the voice of the people on this one Jack? I liked the fact that there punishment was extra equality and diversity training. No judge or frazzled parent ever threatened anything worse…
23 - Oooh, I would have thought so - probably more, in fact.
By Chris Mead, PA Elections Editor
The Tories came close to losing a safe seat in a shock council by-election result.
The majority at Ightham, Tonbridge and Malling Borough, was slashed to 51 votes on a swing of more than 20% to the Liberal Democrats.
However, the Conservatives easily defended a Town ward seat at East Staffordshire Borough in the only other reported contest this week.
Analysis of a small sample of six comparable results throughout August suggest a projected nationwide Tory lead over Labour of 18.8%.
This is almost certainly exaggerated as most of the month’s polls came in wards where Labour’s vote was already weak and open to squeezing by the Liberal Democrats.
But there were two poor results for Tories in the capital over August with a loss to the Liberal Democrats at Harrow and a majority slashed to just three votes by Labour in an Enfield by-election.
A calculation over the month based on four wards fought both times by all three major parties suggests a projected line-up of C 45.9%, Lib Dem 25.4%, Lab 22.7%.
RESULTS:
East Staffordshire Borough - Town: C 664, Lab 255, Ukip 104. (May 2003 - Two seats C 901, 897, Ind 833, Lab 477, 449). C hold. Swing 10.1% Lab to C.
Tonbridge and Malling Borough - Ightham: C 352, Lib Dem 301. (May 2003 - C 415, Lib Dem 142). C hold. Swing 20.6% C to Lib Dem.
end
26. Fergus Ewing backed them. And Muriel Gray in The Herald called him nauseating.
26 Cookie. Having followed this case in the Scottish press for some time, I’m absolutley clear that this was a case of rampant homophobia. The “religious” defence was only trotted out later.
Fire doesn’t discriminate in race, sex or sexuality and gay people have the same rights to a decent fire prevention service as the rest of the community. Gay people pay their taxes too !
It’s a sad fact that despite the best efforts of senior management in the Fire Service that a “canteen culture” of homophobia has existed in the fire service, that was also largely ignored by the FBU until recently.
On a political note the 5Live discussion included a Tory MP (Hemel?) defending the firefighters. It might help the Tory cause a little if every time one of these issues popped up that a tame Tory didn’t “come out” of the woodwork and defend the indefesible. My heart sank !!
It would have been Hemel Hempstead - Mike Penning used to be a fireman.
31 Anthony. Thanks. Explains his appearance.
RE 30, JackW, I was not privy to the 5 Live discussion, so can’t coment on what the MP said.
When I first heard of this I did not look into it, but thought it was political correctness gone mad. After all why should some one be forced to go on a demo…
Of course that is wrong, they were not asked to do any such thing, or to support a gay pride march, just to hand out fire safety leaflets, and where better to do it then in a large crowd. The sexuality of the crowd ceases to be relevant.
In that sense they were wrong not to do it, and their actions amount to insubordination. I wonder what the FBU position on this is.
33 Benedict. The FBU is in a cleft stick. On the one hand instinctively wanting to support its members and on the other desperately trying to distance themselves from their action. Some tight rope walking !!
The FBU are refusing to comment on the disciplinary results pending possible appeals !!
….. hoping no doubt in a few months time that the spotlight will be on Andrea leafletting fire stations on political awareness !!
30&33. I agree with you JackW. The story was initially reported because a group of firefighters refused to hand out fire safety leaflets at a particle event. It is not political correctness gone mad just blatant prejudice.
35 - I think you’re right I’ve no sympathy for them. On the other hand I think it’s a bit rich for Muriel Gray to call Fergus Ewing nauseating given the weekly diatribe she pens for the Sunday Herald. Probably my least favourite Scottish journalist.
36. Got to say that she and Simon Heffer are the two journalists most likely to raise my blood pressure. :D:
RE 35, Chris yes it does seem that way. As I said they were not, if I understand correctly being asked to participate in a march against their will, but to hand out leaflets to the public.
Deciding which members of the public deserve them is not within their remit.
JackW, the FBU must be in a difficult position, however situations like this require a bit of leadership. I think they are waiting for it all to go away.
36. Max, here’s her column about Ewing’s stance about this:
http://www.sundayherald.com/56885
36 Max. Have to agree Max on Muriel Gray …. pot and kettle came to mind.
BTW sad news about Hector Monro. A true decent old school Tory of the type that used to abound in Scotland. Ex RAF man of course !
As you would expect, this site appeals to people with an interest in politics and betting. For some, like me, with an interest in both, it is a real treasure. When I first discovered it some years ago, postings seemed to me to comprise a fair mix of the political and betting oriented. The site’s continued and well merited success seems to have brought with it a change in that composition so that betting discussions have become rare.
Take this morning, for example. Philip entered his interesting little piece at about 7.30 am? I sauntered across to my pc at about 8.45. The even money he mentioned was still available on Betfair and as reported at 13. above, I was able to mop it up. No comment from my fellow PBers. In fact of 36 postings this morning, only one (apart from mine) mentions the betting opportunity Philip so helpfully pointed out.
Each to his own, of course, but don’t you guys ever have a bet?
39 - Andrea, I’ve got a very bad hang over this morning. I think reading the rantings of that mad woman would push me over the edge!
O/T was I only the only person chilled to the bone by Blair’s new plan to identify potential ‘problem’ toddlers and babies and ‘intervene’ in the families concerned. He must be losing his mind to propose something like this, especially given the woeful record of social services in this area (Orkney, Staffordshire, various Meadows cases etc.).
33- Benedict. I don’t know the details of the case but I pose this for thought. Would you expect an attractive female nurse dressed in a very nice uniform to have to hand out leaflets to crowds of male football fans with no doubt the comments and eyeing up she would get?
41. Peter, thanks to this site I made my first bet outside the grand national. Have bet on TB’s departure date.
4 - Evan Harris ALWAYS used his “Dr”
I must say I think Ben Redsell is being a bit silly and dramatic when he says “DC has done more in a year to push forward the Green agenda as mainstream than the left have done in the last 10 years”. He hasn’t. BUT the Conservative Party has never been a particularly anti-Green Party, ask any dedicated environmentalist. Their record is relatively decent, always has been. My mate is an environmental lawyer, a staunch leftie, and a Tory-hater BUT he did explain to me once that this was the case, can’t remember the argument but it was convincing because (a) it came from him and he hates Tories and (b) he is a convincing fella.
44. A&E on a Saturday afternoon during the football season back in the 80’s would have been pretty similar.
44 - now THAT is homophobic nonsense!
44 DC. Sounds more like your fantasies coming to the surface ! ….. let alone the stereotypes of what you think gays, nurses and football crowds are like.
Jack and Benedict - Wouldn’t it be best now if everybody just ignored it and let the matter go away? After all, the firefighters have already been ‘punished’ in the most appropriate way. They have made themselves look foolish before a wider public.
1. Green taxes are likely to hit C1 and C2 voters, which is unwise unless their tax burden is reduced in other ways.
Raising revenue through Green taxes, while leaving their tax burden unchanged elsewhere, is likely to be problematic.
50. Jack, don’t forget his stereotype of firefighters being attractive!
51. If you just ignore things, nothing will never improve. Issues must be addressed, not ignored.
45. Glad to hear it, Chris D. Btw, what was it? I had £210 on 2008 at 5-1 but very recently laid off £170 at 7-2. Circumstances have moved against him since I struck the original bet and I now think it very unlikely he will survive beyond 2007.
RE 52, Sean I agree with your sentiment. I would rather see tax on bio alternatives reduced as this is far more likely to be helpful.
Is there a market on the new UN Secretary General anywhere? Apparently some Korean bloke really fancies his chances….
RE 56, Yokel, when is it due?
Surely now is the time for Gordon Brown to move against Blair… the economy is, at best, going to do nothing special over the next couple of years, so it is a good time to take that risk at leave number 11. And Blair is refusing to name the date for the orderly succession.
But the truth is that Gordon just lacks the character and balls for such a move. It is rather pathetic really. The longer he fails to make a move, the harder it will get.
41. I’d like to bet - really I would! But I can’t get ahead around the maths of spread betting. Feeble I know.
Didn’t Mike S produce a guide? Where is it? I might have another read…
I am trying to reconcile this recent mental gaylordism with my alleged IQ of 140. Something has to give. Hmp.
50- No I just a question for thought but already the PC brigade wade in (post 49). It doesn’t matter what I think, it is what a worker in any form of work thinks when told to do something which they feel uncomfortable about.
However justified or not the concerns, those concerns should be addressed.
53 - If they were merely asked to hand out fire safety leaflets, within their contractual working hours, then I think it’s right they be disciplined for refusing.
If they were expected to participate in the parade, in some way, or asked to work outside their contractual working hours, then I think they were well within their rights in refusing.
The case has been so scantily reported, I wouldn’t like to comment further.
Before anyone asks, one South Korean, one Thai, one Indian and one Sri Lankan appear to be in the running and they decide October. There may be others but thats only people I’m aware of. If that list is complete is there some kind of regionalisation process?
56 - bound to be an Asian.
Waldheim - Europe… followed by
Perez de Cuellar - South America… followed by
Boutros-Ghali - Middle East (Africa)… followed by
Anan - Africa
Asia / Pacific’s turn.
Bloody hell Benedict, in there within seconds with the question….
63 - also, must be a French speaker (WHY?). I think the Indian guy does not speak French, but apparently he is prepared to learn.
51/53 Andrea/Peter P. I’m not sure the issue can be ignored. These type of spats and the discussions they provoke tell us much about ourselves as a nation and where we stand in the civilised world. The more so when clerics intervene :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/5304524.stm
…………………………………….
For me such discussions in the 80’s allowed me to continue voting Conservative because although the socially conservative aspect of the party, especially issues such as Section 28, went against my socially liberal instincts I was aware that the tide of reform was unstoppable and nothing in legislative terms would alter that tide. Thus Thatchers liberal economic agenda could be brought forward and the social liberal reforms would follow as night follows day.
On the betting front I now have no political book open presently. My sports punting is healthy though !!
http://www.unsg.org/candidates.html
59. Sean T, despair not. You are not alone. A former boss of mine, super-intelligent as befits a highflying tax expert, was also a great golf fan and liked a bet. He used to give me great tips for the golf majors and I would back them on the spreads. We used to share the proceeds and over the years they came to quite a bit. But no matter how many times I explained the principles of spread betting to him, he couldn’t get his head round it. I remember one Saturday getting a panicky phone call from him because he thought I’d got the bet ‘the wrong way round’. I hadn’t but it shows that even the brightest people can be thrown by the basic principles of the spread.
Sean, I enjoy your posts very much so I am prepared to make you a special offer. Send me an email and I will give you my tel number so that, if you like, you can call me and I will explain spread betting to you. Shouldn’t take too long. The address is arklebar@talktalk.net
58. SBS, do you know Gordon Brown….I mean personally?
58. SBS, do you know Gordon Brown….I mean personally?
No.
Looking at the current nominnees they are voted on by the nations but ultimately need the support of the 15 members of the Security Council and any 1 of the permanent members can veto it. It appears that there is still time for others to get in their nominations.
Interesting stuff on the above website, particularly looking at the positions of the nations on the Security Council.
The other question is, is there a bias towards players already within the UN or are people with no UN history just as likely to get voted in?
66- Jack. The jokes aspect may well be a legitimate concern. There is plenty of scope for that with firemen. What I find hard to believe is that anyone would have gone to this event to find out about or learn about fire safety! Come on lets get back to the real world. Fire safety is a serious subject while the event would I guess have been a carnival atmosphere and people having a good time. Try going in to a nightclub at midnight on a friday and start preaching about anything serious. You will achieve nothing.
69. Thought not,SBS.
71 - DC, I’m not sure if people of Jack’s vintage tend to frequent night clubs. Perhaps a tea dance would have been a better example.
71. DC. I think one of the aims of firefighters is to try promoting fire safety among people who don’t usually care about that issue (people who care tend to be already informed and they search info themself). So it makes sense to go to places where you can get lots of people (they also go and visit churches for ex). They should have given away leaflets. So even if it’s a carnival fest, people are still able to take leaflets (and read them later at home).
And sorry, the jokes thing, oh well, don’t let me start on it.
73 -Max. Being 103 he must have good eyesight to read and post on here. Does he use one of those whatsyoucallits that Patrick Moore uses to read with?
66 Jack W. There’s always an issue with when to ignore (and risk tacitly condoning) and when to oppose actively (and risk giving the oxygen of publicity to all manner of fools.) I would have thought this particular idiocy could be ignored.
Incidentally, the lack of response to my post at 41. rather tends to bear out the point I was making! ‘The Dome’ isn’t the most thrilling of markets but I would have thought some PBers might have been stirred to comment. Seems the politicos outnumber the punters heavily. Maybe its just a dull betting season.
How are your sports bets going?
What a crock..no market on the next UN SG. No problems betting on the next leader of Fianna Fail in Ireland but potentialy a much bigger market, nah.
Can’t you pay Poles £7 an hour to hand out fire safety leaflets? Why should we pay firefighters what ever it is to hand these out - and massively pay for their final salary pensions which allow them to retire, with full benefits, from handing out leaflets at the age of 49?
Shouldn’t they be fighting fires, or playing cards or sleeping in the fire station waiting for a call?
74. Now Andrea that could be twisted (but I wouldn’t do it) in to saying gay folks don’t care about fire safety issues. I get the point and follow the logic but my own experience says its fruitless. They are there enjoying themselves.
As for jokes, they are endless and it is so tempting but I’ll show restraint…
78. SBS, spot on, get some admin people to hand the damn things out.
52. Sean, I think that we are suffering now because of the current oil prices. I think that we are going to be forced to change our habits regardless of green taxes. We have to do more about climate change, but we must also realise there may come a point where oil/gas supply is not able to meet global demands.
It is better to plan and implement an environmental friendly public transport system now. The biggest complaint about penalising car drivers seems to be the fact that our present transport system does not adequately meet our requirements. We are going to have to pay for it and for once a bit of forward planning might produce a decent cheap alternative to the car and protect our economy in the future.
What do we do, put the emphasis on lowering the tax burden now or do we address not just climate change but our long term energy and transport needs?
We had taxcuts under Maggie and have spent the proceeds on the public services we neglected. Lets for once get ahead of the game.
76/78
And would these admin people (or Polish) know anything about fire prevention? Could they explain what really happens in a fire? Can they explain the consequences of not having a working smoke detector? Could they recruit potential firefighters with their knowledge of the job? Would anybody even go to the stall if their weren’t firefighters (and a fire engine) there?
I’ve seen firefighters doing all of these roles at Fetes and OPen Days etc
I consider it a most useful part of their job - unfortuantely one cannot measure the success of fire prevention measures
Is it just me or do I detect a significant crack has just appeared under Tony Blair?
82 - a fair point. But why do these have to retire from doing this part of their job too at the age of 49?
Rising oil prices will, of themselves, promote more efficient energy use.
I don’t object to Green taxes in principle, but only so long as they are offset elsewhere. The government already takes more than sufficient money from us to run effective public services. It has no right to any more.
SBS: as you admitted the other day, you like putting provocative posts, and often i agree with them. But there is a perfectly good political case for not forcing an early Labour leadership election, and it’s nothing to do with having balls or not. The non-Labour media and activists (including your good self) want blood and fireworks, but why should GB oblige just to satisfy your idea of manliness?
A key point about many of the people calling for this is that they don’t represent Labour voters (who in the latest poll are satisfied with TB by a margin of over 4-1): this is why TB will, I predict, get a good reception at Conference with a few exceptions. Some, like Polly Toynbee and Neil Lawson and our own roger, represent another important group: former Labour voters who are unhappy. But many of this group want a policy rethink, not just a new face, and it trivialises their concerns to reduce them to “when is Brown gonna have the balls to make a challenge?”
RE 86, Nick Palmer MP, Whilst I note your comments, watching the fireworks even if they are a bit muted is fun
Nick Palmer, bless you and your party line. Once Tony goes the stories will start to come out about the sheer depth of division and in-fighting.
Always happens and will happen here. Either that or the media are making up every single brief from Blairites and Brownites that they ever publish.
86 - thanks for the reply. I do agree with you, and I am glad to have prodded you into putting your side of things, which are always interesting to hear. The points you make are not seen in the press.
I’m not happy with Blair but I don’t particularly want blood and fireworks - though they would be fun to watch (and as a Lib Dem, I would know - the LD leadership crisis was fun to watch too!). I too would like an orderly succession, because that is what is best for the country. I do still wonder if that will happen, because I think that TB is not making it easy.
84 They don’t have to retire at 49 - they HAVE to retire at 55
http://www.communities.gov.uk/pub/33/RuleA13Compulsoryretirementonaccountofage_id1124033.pdf
This seems quite sensible too - I’m not sure I would want a 57 year old attempting to carry me down a ladder from a burning building - and why shouldn’t they retire anyway at 49 if they wish with 30 years service behind them?
87. Maybe the firefighters should be sent giving away safety leaflets at the Lab Conference just to prevent damages in the event of fireworks.
But plese don’t give them to Chris Bryant, because DC at 79 pointed out that gay people aren’t intersted in fire safety
So you would be happy with someone aged 54 years 364 days carrying you down the ladder but 1 day later you will not be .
Max, Chris D and other Scottish posters. What are your thoughts about the future of independent councillors with the new election system? I was reading a piece about some Inverness indies still being undecided to stand or not.
Do you think it’ll be more difficult for indies to be elected in multi-members wards?
Re 86 Nick
Blair will get a very rude reception at Conference.
The only people who want him to carry on are Lib Dems, Tories and a few Blairite mps. He improves the other parties chances each day he continues. Thatcher had much better ratings than Blair when she was removed.
Since the unions get together before the Labour conference there is a real chance that they will decide to act and withold funding until he is gone. That would produce change faster than anything as they now control 75% of donations.
93 - Andrea, I assume you were the Italian visitor to this site about a week ago but if not, read on…
93: Although not a Scot, Andrea, I have had some dealings with the new system for local elections and the Independent angle. STV is easily the most Independent-friendly PR system as it’s candidate-centred rather than party-based, and the Republic of Ireland which uses STV has a high level of Independent representatives by international comparison. Independents with a very strong friends-and-neighbours vote should be OK.
However, there are some issues particularly when existing Ind councillors find themselves grouped with others in the same multi-member ward. They might need to think about how they relate to other Independents and parties because of the importance of second preferences in STV. You might see them forming formal or informal coalitions with each other, or fellow travelling with parties. My hunch is that the boundary between party and Ind will blur a bit - the Inds might take on a political tinge, but party discipline will loosen. Give it time.
OT: There’s a startling poll in the Republican Rhode Island Senate contest. Lincoln Chafee seems to be lagging behind a more conservative challenger - whose victory would probably hand the seat to the Democrats. It would be interesting to see how all those right wing pundits expressing sympathy for Lieberman’s position in Connecticut will spin this one!
71 DC. Up and down the country firefighters attend large events and village fetes dispensing good advice and goodwill. The trouble for these particular Scottish firefighters was that it was a Village People fete.
No excuses for these public servants, they bought shame on themselves and the uniform they wear.
76 Peter P. I had a wedge on Aggasi overnight and was watching the match. At 2 sets up I went to bed !!!!!!!!. Just as well he won in the end. Us old uns can still cut it.
I’ve also made money on Arsenal’s poor start to the season, but have now pulled the plug on that. Some other tasty morsels have come my way, but on the missus side I lost badly on Fulham at Man Utd.
I may have a dash on Henman getting at least a set off Federer this afternoon. Also Murray’s quarter of the draw seems OK.
93 Andrea. I think the Indies should do ok. Like most of these locals the quality of the individual will remain paramount.
93 - Andrea I think it will make it more difficult. At present pretty much all the independents are in rural areas and the individuals concerned are usually well known in that ward but not elsewhere. So in wards that contain more than one distinct community I think they’ll suffer.
In the ward I’ll be voting in – Tweeddale West - there are two main population centres – West Linton and (IIRC) the west half of Peebles. An independent from West Linton is unlikely to get votes in Peebles and the same goes the other way round. However a Tory in Peebles might vote for a Tory candidate from West Linton because of the party badge. Similarly a Lib Dem candidate in Peebles might get votes from A Lib Dem supporter in West Linton.
Hope that makes sense!
91. Andrea. I did not say that. I said what you posted could be twisted that way if the PC bridgade went in to reverse. I have no reason to think that someone’s sexuality or otherwise influences their interest in fire safety.
Maybe there will be a kind of ‘gunpowder plot’ at the Labour conference with a plan to bring Blair down. At least all this interest in Blair takes the pressure off the Libdem conference…
83. I posted a comment about this last night. I think that Tony Blair has gambled yet again that Brown won’t make a move. I think we might see a challenge but not from the Brownites.
86.”The non-Labour media and activists (including your good self) want blood and fireworks, but why should GB oblige just to satisfy your idea of manliness?” Nick, from the outside it looks like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have both lost authority. I think that Tony Blair’s interview in the Times was a head on challenge to his own party rather than an attempt to diffuse the anger and uncertainty about his departure.
Looking back on what happened to Mrs T and IDS, once the momentum gathers it is hard to avoid the blood and fireworks.
97. Jack, you are having a better season than me on the sports side. I’m impressed by your shrewd judgement. Even that Fulham bet was OK. I looked at it myself. There was plenty of value there and as you no doubt know, if you consistently back the value, you will win in the long run.
Most of my APs don’t bear repeating but I did get on Australia to recover the Ashes at 4/6 - a steal in my opinion. You might also like to look at Mansfield for promotion from Div 2. They’ve had a shaky start but I am reliably informed that they have a very good chance. (No, I’m not a supporter: I don’t even know where it is.)
Cheers. Gotta go now. Racing starting.
97- Jack. Was there a Fireman in the Village People? There were a couple of uniforms I recall. I always liked the Red Indian.
DC..apparently one of the original Village People died a year or two back and they buried him in his suit (cowboy I believe).
101 Peter P. My two simple rules on betting are :
1. Does the bet match my judgement?
2. Is there good value in the market ?
Unless the two come together I demur. Value for me is crucial. Fortunatley there’s plenty of scope in the market both on-line and in the High Street.
I’m not sure about the Ashes. Too far out for me. I like to see the whites of the stumps before plunging.
102. DC. Without recourse to my LPs in the attic, I think there was a Police Officer, a Red Indian and a Marine. Not sure about the others …….. all sing YMCA …
103- Yokel. I think that was the one with the leather cap but not sure. Some research for Andrea to do on the important political topic of today.
Maybe In The Navy could be re recorded as In the Fire Service. Come on all sing along now…
“You can hand out leaflets… In the Fire Service… They want you…They want you… They want you as a new recruit”
102 DC. Village People :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Village_people
104. Wasn’ the other one a builder? “all sing YMCA …” that brings back memories.
‘why should GB oblige just to satisfy your idea of manliness?’
More fantasies coming to the surface?
And Tone is making mugs of us all
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5304928.stm
106- thanks Jack. Yes it was the leather clad biker who died but no mention of him being buried in his gear. If there were ever a British version of the Village People I think we should have a Fireman in there.
104 – Jack W & Peter.
I’ve got the following bets on and I think the last one in particular is very good value.
Hearts to win the Premier league – 9/1
Stenhousemuir to win the 3rd Division – 9/4
Hibs to win the league (without Rangers, Hearts and Celtic) – 11/4
111 Max. I think the Hearts bet is a heart bet !! . Not sure about Stenhousemuir but the Hibs wager appears very good value.
If they all win Peter and I will accept your kind offer of a night on the tiles in Edinburgh…… although in my case it’ll be a tea dance.
111. Where exactly is Stenhousemuir?
96. Thanks Lewis.
95. Stephen B. yes, I visited it!
98. One issue can be costs. If the new ward in very large, it became more expensive to run a campaign.
113 GC. Stenhousemuir is near Falkirk in central Scotland.
115. Is it one of those clubs where the average gate is about 25 - wives, girlfriends, relatives and the odd one man with his dog?
As a bit of Labour supporter. Surely Tony has reached the end of the road today. Only the inertia of office is holding him place.
Come on Labour, time to move on.
116 GC. Pretty much, although I think the gate is well into the hundreds rather than a few dozen ! Man Utd can only dream.
116 - I think like a lot of clubs in that division they get 300-400. There are a few non-league clubs in Scotland with better supports.
They’ve been a bit erratic. They beat Montrose 5-0 then lost the big derby with East Stirling by the same score!
112 - You’d be very welcome Jack. A few pints at a nice bar on George Street then out on the pull at Subway (aka ‘Scrubbers’).
The Hearts bet is a bit of a ‘heart’ bet but 9/1 is good value considering neither Celtic or Rangers are all that spectacular.
Still no market on the Scottish elections at the moment but it may arise in due course.
Clydebank had an attendance of 29 at one game in 1999…
86 “Some, like Polly Toynbee and Neil Lawson and our own roger, represent another important group: former Labour voters who are unhappy. But many of this group want a policy rethink, not just a new face, and it trivialises their concerns …”
But, Nick, aren’t you the one trivialising such concerns, by reducing Gordon Brown to the status of a “new face”.
I think Gordon Brown — like any politician — will certainly want to stamp a distinctive mark on his Premiership, and that will involve some shifts in policy.
oh, **& it! Just typed a long post - but it’s difficult to discuss betting on the Dome & the current bid without forgetting not to mention the blacklisted word ca si no.
Do these things get queued for moderation, or are they just dropped? If the former, could you release it please, Philip?
Sarah Teather has confirmed she’ll stand in Brent Central next time.
(go to Brent LD website. The spam filter blocks my link)
She went for the hardest option. I suppose that BC has now became a target. In the North London area the LDs have two obvious targets: Hampstead and Kilburn and Islington South.
Then there’s a set of “outside” chances (Holborn and St Pancrass, Islington North, Leyton and Walthamstow).
I suppose they can target one of them, but I’m not sure they can target all of them.
Any opinions?
Andrea – do you know how the boundary changes affect Brent North?
121 – IIRC the fans were boycotting the games due to the actions of the board. Clydebank’s place in the league was taken by Airdrie United who had previously been Airdrieonians who had gone out of business. Clydebank now play in the Junior leagues.
O/T – Does any other constituency in Britain contain as many football league teams as Angus?
Re: 125 - If Labour are in retreat, Andrea, Sarah may well be ok. She may be like Simon Hughes has been electorally in Southwark & Bermondsey. Once you’re elected to an area, it becomes difficult to leave I would imagine unless the seat itself ceases to exist.
126. Stodge, yes, but there’s the chance that also the Libdems won’t be up next time (at national level).
Labour was still ahead of the LDs in local election last may in BC wards. Her opponent will be Dawn Butler:
http://www.epolitix.com/EN/MPWebsites/Dawn+Butler
I suppose that the strategy was that a different candidate can get H&K, whilst just Teather can win Brent Central
125. Max, Anthony Wells figures don’t have BN in the top 114 Con targets. The tories were ahead in the locals and have more councillors than Labour, but IIRC Labour didn’t do too badly there
111. Max, the Hibs bet looks v good to me. The ‘without Rangers/Celtic’ markets can be very interesting. (A lot of shrewdies picked up on Kilmarnock at 33-1 last year, I believe.)
Would love a night out on the Edinburgh tiles but regret Matron will not permit it.
Off-topic, sorry. This is a reply to Disraeli from the French politics thread I missed because I was on holiday.
“Disraeli August 30th, 2006 at 9:25 am: ‘could anybody tell me of a good blog/ website in English for coverage of the French election? I have found this discussion to be fascinating but the general level of broadsheet coverage is derisory.’”
There isn’t one at the moment though I’m thinking of stepping into the breach if anyone except you and I are interested. If you read French, the best coverage is http://www.lepoint.fr in my opinion.
125. I dread to think what the ‘junior leagues’ attendances must be! When are Celtic and Rangers going to leave this tin pot setup behind and join the English premier league?
Peter the Punter - ta!! V generous offer. I shall endeavour tofind time o-to take you up on it…. Some expert advice would be more than useful.
129 - Mister Chip - French election coverage. If you do not speak French, the free automatic translation tools (eg google, yahoo) do a very good job.
No problem Sean T
Andrea,
Can you give me an email address please? I would like to ask you something.
Forgot to add my own: Intobs211@aol.com
134. Commentator, anpa82@inwind.it
Very O/T
Some time ago, on Iain Dale’s blog, Lord Norton stated that collective responsibility has been suspended three times in the twentieth century. Now, I can think of protective tariffs in the 1930s, and the EEC Referendum. Can any of the great minds here come up with a third? Or has the Noble Lord made a mistake?
130 – I don’t think it will happen. It would probably be good for the Man United’s and Chelsea’s of this world but for the majority of teams in the Premiership it would mean two more teams to compete with for a place in the top division.
The other issue of course is how the Old Firm’s crowds would hold up if they weren’t winning week in week out. When Rangers and Celtic had crap teams in the early 1980’s they had crowds as low as 5000-6000.
As to the Junior crowds a number of teams (Pollock Juniors, Maryhill, Linlithgow Rose, Bo’ness etc) get better crowds than most third division teams. I think Cambuslang Rangers once had 32,000 attend a match although they’ve fallen away in recent years.
Funnily enough Tommy Sheridan played in the Junior leagues in his younger days.
Thanks Andrea, I have just emailed you.
By-Election Results: Thursday 31st August 2006.
Chepstow TC, Thornwell
Lab 176 (50.0), Con 112 (31.8), LD Henry Ashby 64 (18.2).
Majority 64. Turnout 19%. Lab hold.
East Staffordshire BC, Town
Con 664 (64.9; +24.1), Lab 255 (24.9; +3.3), UKIP 104 (10.2; +10.2), [Ind (0.0; -37.7)].
Majority 409. Turnout 20.9%. Con hold. Last fought 2003.
Llanbadarn Fawr WCC, Sulien
LD Bob Morris 192 (90.6), Con 20 (9.4).
Majority 172. Turnout 15.2%. LD gain from PC.
Tonbridge and Malling BC, Ightham
Con 352 (53.9; -20.6), LD Rebecca Hunt 301 (46.1; +20.6).
Majority 51. Turnout 42.5%. Con hold. Last fought 2003.
Uttoxeter PC, Town
Con 588 (58.1), Lab 247 (24.4), UKIP 102 (10.1), LD 75 (7.4).
Majority 341. Turnout 20.7%. Con hold.
Please note:
The figures for percentage change are based on the details of the results from the last time that there was an election in the ward by statute in the May (or sometimes June) elections, rather than by any by-election. We use the figures in The Local Elections Handbook by Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher.
The Party-defending seat is the party that the former Councillor (who has died, resigned or been disqualified) belonged to when she or he was elected not the one that she or he may have subsequently belonged to as a result of any defection.
Llanbadarn Fawr- 90.6% Lib Dem! Is this in Montgomery?
ACM @ 137 — Direct Elections to the European Assembly according to House of Commons research paper 04/82 http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2004/rp04-082.pdf
which was turned up by google, but then there are also free votes which sort of fit in to this.
141. Just outside Aberystwyth in the Ceredigion constituency.
141 Llanbadarn Fawr is very close to Aberystwyth.
In all elections in West Wales, the quality of the candidate matter very much, so extrapolation from one result is always difficult.
@142
Thanks for that.
@140
No PC candidate in Llanbadern Fawr, despite it formerly being a PC seat?
96 Lewis - re the Rhode Island primary. Interesting comparison between Chafee’s situation and Lieberman’s. Chafee is still being backed by the Republican establishment despite the fact that he refused to vote for GW Bush in the last election. (he wrote in the name of George Bush Senior). Other than Iraq, its very hard to argue that Lieberman has a voting record in line with Republicans (although his rhetoric and style are moderate). Its fairly easy on the other hand to argue that Chafee’s voting record is more in line with a centrist Democrat - on Iraq, tax cuts, abortion, environment, gay rights, Alito etc etc (which is probably how he gets reelected in Rhode Island to be honest). Its also not beyond the realms that in the event that Chafee’s vote was decisive as to control of the Senate he might do what Jeffords did and switch sides. I wouldn’t blame RI Republicans for challenging him, although as you say the seat would then likely be won by a Democrat in any case who would be safe for a very long time.
RE 147, Paul M, I think American politics is going to be interesting for a while. Thanks for that. Interesting comments.
Presumably the new Brent Central will be a Labour-Lib Dem marginal, with a certain number of Tory voters just waiting to be squeezed.
On the other hand, the new Hampstead and Kilburn - also a Labour-Lib Dem marginal, I think - has a more substantial Tory residual vote, so presumably the Tories will go all out to try to present it as a three-way marginal, thus making it a bit harder to squeeze them.
I think Sarah Teather has made the right choice.
137 - I can’t think of another 20th Century example but an early 21st Century one is Lords reform. Didn’t Cook (then Leader of the House) and Blair vote in different lobbies?
123 - sorry, the comment’s been lost (there are so many spams that most suspicious-looking ones get deleted without any manual intervention). I appreciate it is quite a trap when commenting on this thread, and I shall optimistically put the general off-topicness down to that.
149 Brent Central will be safe for Labour. Kensal Green, Stonebridge, and Harlesden are rock solid Labour wards, and Welsh Harp is pretty safe. Labour will do well enough in the remaining wards at general elections to hold the seat comfortably.
The Lib Dems are much stronger in Hampstead and Kilburn. They had a fair lead over the Conservatives in the local elections, with Labour in a very poor third place. Sara Teather must be the favourite to win it next time, and the Conservatives may make second place.
149. well, it depends on what you consider a marginal or not. Labour was 11% ahead in the 2006 locals, so I suppose they’ll be even more ahead in the notionals.
152. Sean, as I said earlier, Teather said she’ll go for Brent Central.
Here’s the plan for the supercashino:
1) Build the first one to Blackpool.
2) Announce after 12 months that morality in Blackpool has not diminished as a result.
3) Give the green light to a few more, including Greenwich.
Easy, isn’t it?
Oh I missed that, Andrea. I think that’s foolishly overconfident on her part. The black voters of Kensal Green, Harlesden, and Stonebridge are probably the most loyal Labour voters in London. She’d have to have a mighty big lead in the rest of the constituency to overcome their votes.
If she doesn’t fight Hampstead and Kilburn, then that seat should certainly be regarded as a three way marginal now.
Max, Brent North gains three wards, Alperton, Sudbury, and Wembley Central. They are all held by the Lib Dems at local level, but they are Labour at Parliamentary level. Bits of Tokyngton, and Welsh Harp are moved from Brent North to Brent Central. It virtually reunites all of the old Wembley Urban District Council into one seat.
The new seat has 15 Conservative councillors, 9 Lib Dems, and 3 Labour. The Tories led Labour by 4% in May, across the seat, with the Lib Dems third. It should be safeish for Labour at Parliamentary level, but an upset is not out of the question.
Teather’s decision is corageous to the point of foolhardiness, for the reasons that Sean gives. I’d be very surpised to see Labour lose Brent Central in a GE situation.
But Sean, have the wards that will make up the new Brent Central ever really been subjected to a serious, hard-fought Lib Dem campaign? Sarah Teather showed a year ago what she is capable of.
I would imagine that the strategy of putting sitting MPs in the weaker of two newly formed constituencies is one that will be followed by Tories and Labour alike? Quite a hig risk strategy, of course, but with Cameron sinking in the public esteem and Blair´s Labour sinking even faster, it is one that could well pay dividends for the Lib Dems.
What’s even worse from the LD POV is that, because they’ll know have to fight to win in bo