How much has been changed by the statement?
September 8th, 2006Is it too late for a timetable?
You usually feel like a circling vulture when a politician announces at short notice that a “statement” is on its way. But Tony Blair’s announcement yesterday felt underwhelming in the circumstances. A month ago, say, the news that Blair would certainly be gone 12 months from now would probably have been enough to convince the rebels that they should more or less hold their tongues until then. This week’s catharsis, though, gives the situation a different feel.
Brownites and others in the party pressing Blair to go must now feel they have tasted blood and have the PM on the ropes. So are they going to be content to leave the knockout blow until next year? There must be many who are keen to get the thing finished now – particularly the Brown camp who, as Mike Smithson argued yesterday, will do well from an early departure by Blair.
The current market offers 16/1 against a September 2006 departure, 3.4/1 against Oct–Dec 2006, 3/1 against Jan–Mar 2006 with the favourite period, at 1.64/1, Apr–Jun 2007 (matching the 4 May departure that “sources close to Blair” have been spinning). I have a small bet on September 2006 and a larger one on October–December 2006.
For the succession, Brown is still favourite at 0.4/1. The best-priced outsider to my mind is Hilary Benn (41/1) and I’ve had a small flutter there.
Philip Grant
Guest editor
Mike Smithson returns full-time on 10th September.
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Meanwhile, in the real world, the Lib Dems knocked the stuffing out of Labour in Warrington.
What happened in Somerset last night?
Labour have not been doing well in council byelections for some time - another few months and the message might start to get through that something needs to be done sooner.
But it will take a leader with a bit more charisma than Brown appears to possess to recover from this. As Labour are almost certain to pick Brown ……
That was a safe ward, wasn’t it?
I wonder if this would change LibDem strategy from ‘mostly attack the Tories’ to ‘mostly attack Labour’.
The trouble with backing outsiders like Benn or Hutton is surely that unless the SNP wins independence for Scotland by Christmas, they are unlikely even to stand. It might happen but needs to be factored into the price.
My mistake; it was the Somerset ward that was safe Labour.
An O/T note for punters. September is surely impossible in Betfair terms - they define it, according to posts I’ve seen here, as someone actually taking over as new (not interim) PM. It is physically impossible to organise an election and appoint a new leader before the end of September even if TB resigned in the next 60 seconds. Laying the remaining Betfair September bets is free money, but the odds are so large that you need a lot of spare cash to tie up for 3 weeks. Similarly, beware of counting on a May 4 resignation to produce a Q2 result - it probably would and I think the favourite status of Q2 is justified, but it’d only take a small slippage to make it Q3.
As I said a couple of days ago, all this simply has to depress Labour certainty to vote, so the council by-election isn’t a surprise. A MORI poll today would show a two-digit Tory lead (they’re the ones who only count ‘certain to vote’). At the moment I’m more interested in with the underlying sympathy ratings.
The Telegraph’s online edition is awfully coy about its findings - no concrete figures for party preference (presumably because it would show the 1% Labour increase), and selective bits and bobs about everything else. I note that they quote a majority wanting TB to go by May, the expected timetable, but give no figure for the obvious question - do you want him to go now? Presumably the answer was unhelpful to the Telegraph.
PS Anthony Wells gives a bit more detail - a majority of voters but a minority of Labour voters want a change before the end of the year.
7. Nick, I asked a question on here relating to that but never got a clear answer. I understand that the bet turns on when Blair stands down as ‘offical Labour Party leader’. I don’t know what that means - does anyone have a definative (by Betfair) answer?
If they are going by when a new leader is elected then you’re right - 2006 Q3 is impossible, but if they regard a resignation from that post in itself to be enough, then it’s still an outside chance, even if he were to stay on as acting leader and PM.
I’ve made my bet with Paddy Power which uses his position as PM, rather than Labour Party leader to define the bet, precisely because of this question.
With regard to the Betfair market - it says “When will Tony Blair officially cease to be leader of the Labour Party?” on the rules. So if he resigned I would assume that the bet would pay out as an interim leader would probably be appointed.
9,10 — it is hard to be certain quite what Betfair have in mind (and that firm has a long record of putting up ill-conceived, vague and ambiguous markets). Perhaps someone should ask them.
However, even if Blair announces his resignation tomorrow, it is probable he will not actually step down till a new leader is chosen. In this case, betting on September 2006 is tantamount to betting on his health.
Can anyone help a man confused by conventional wisdom?
Everyone keeps saying “the man who wields the knife never gets the crown”. But why? Yes this was the case for Heseltine, but he was hated by the party in the country and distrusted by most MPs. As I see it Blair is barely tolerated by most of his MPs and disliked by the party. Surely the man who got rid of him would be seen as a hero.
Also, is it not clear to everyone that Brown IS wielding the knife and has been trying to inflict death by a thousand cuts for years. Surely this is worse than a quick, clean kill.
12. Most leaders are popular within their own party and even Blair has wide support within the PLP and party at large (not least because after 12 years, many opposed to Blair’s leadership have left). ‘Wielding the knife’ is often seen as a dishonourable thing to do - leaders should be allowed to stand down in their own time being the sentiment.
That said, the statement is far from accurate. The most glaring exception being Margaret Thatcher standing and winning against Ted Heath, but more recently Ming’s knifing of Campbell didn’t prevent him winning the election and going back further, Macmillan effectively pulled the plug on Suez and hence Eden’s career but still succeeded him as PM.
The original was Brutus and Cassius’ assassination of Julius Ceasar but even there, when an autocratic leader ignored his parliament, overturned ancient conventions and was deposed by those seeking a return to the old order, they could have got away with it had their decision making after the event been better. It’s been a law based on not very much from the start.
pie chucker @ 12 — successful wielders of the stiletto include Margaret Thatcher and Ming Campbell.
For those last night who were asking for more detail about todays YOuGov poll it is:
Cons 40% +2
Lab 32% +1
LD 17% -1
Anthony Wells has a full write up at http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
On Baxter that would give a Conservative majority of 26!
Yes, but Baxter has less predictive value than chicken entrails, as we’ve debated ad nauseam …
16 - Go on Rik - you know you really want to tell us how many Lib Dems would be left!
The full result from Warrington was LibDem 1358 Lab 505 Con 209 Green 43 - May result LibDem 1021 Lab 859 Con 421 .
Spartacus - Oh I suggest you tell Martin Baxter then. I am sure he would appreciate your intelligent contribution to the argument.
We have debated UNS, which wont happen in each seat, but the fact is that the final result will probably still be close due to the averaging of the UNS across the country.
18 - Max - yep 13 (THIRTEEN) Lib Dems - lol
Mark S - we had Warrington last night. We need Somerset!
16 - But a hung parliament on the more accurate Anthony Wells Swingometer and of course if we put the Warrington swing in we would get ….
20. Rik, the “notional” results for new boundaries on Baxter madel are made basing from the assumption that all wards in a seat voted in the same way and, well, we all know it’s not possible.
24 Waste of time explaining reality to Rik I am afraid Andrea .
4 Commentator. There is no such shifting Lib Dem strategy planned anywhere. The simple fact is that Lib Dems in the Warrlington/St Helens area are presently carrying all before them.
Meanwhile, back at the Texas ranch outpust which is 10 Downing Street, Charles Clarke has thrown his disgruntled ears and eleven-o-clock shadow into the ring with a blistering attack on Brown. Outsiders who wonder why leadership elections in political parties aree generally kept to a shortish period should know that this is because they choose about the longest time that most leadership candidates and their supporters can force themselves to stay roughly positive about themselves and hold back on the verbal blood-letting. If Blair is still here by Christmas I would not be surprised if there are a few labour Clubs up and down the country where the ‘verbal’ will turn to ‘physical’ over the coming months.
So, Rik, Max etc - here is the stark contrast! LDs down 1% on YouGov, Tories up 2%, Labour up 1% (!!!) : Real Votes in the Warrington Ballot Boxes - LDs up from around 40% to around 60%.
Tories and Labour seriously down (Tories down around 6 points from c16% to c10%). No doubt you have a spin on this?
23. The Warrington swing implies national shares of LD 42.5%, Con 24.8%, Lab 22.5% which would give a House of Commons according to Baxter of:
Lib Dem 571, Con 24, Lab 23.
And they still favour PR?
13 - 14
Thanks John and David. But I suppose the difference now is that this would be knifing a recently elected PM. Brown had his chance in 2004 and probably should have struck then if the Eden example were to be followed. Campbell and Thatcher were both in opposition of course.
21. The really funny thing (I know there are a lot of them to choose from) about Rick’s comfort-blanket clinging to a MeGov (sic) poll pushed through Baxter’s Anoraks ‘R’ Us projections is that he would expect to have included Warrington South among Tory gains. I predict, regardless of national swings, this seat will return a Lib Dem MP at the next election.
24 - of course Andrea - but they average out!
25 - Mark dont be such a patronising prat!
27 - Tim13 - welcome back from your hibernation! No one in their right mind would take the results from a single Council election and project them nationally! Oh look at 28!
30 - Zebidee - no comfort blanket! Havent ever needed one of those! YouGov have one of the best track records for a major national pollster. Is the fall in LD support discomforting you?
Nice to hear Ruth Kelly floundering again on the Today programme, supposedly there to defend Gordon, but inadvertently sticking the knife in. She meant to slag off Charles Clarke as some old dinosaur, lacking in modern and hip ideas, but her arguments apply just as equally to Gordon who is probably about the same age as Clarke and has been around in the Labour movement just as long. As Humphrys took delight in pointing out.
Anyway, good to see the story isn’t dying down.
But where are the Conservatives? I appreciate that Cameron is presumably still in India, somewhat unfortunately, but shouldn’t they be putting the boot in, like Labour would have done unto them in the 90s?
I noticed the other day that Gordon Brown’s fingernails are bitten right down to the nail bed.
The majority of people i’ve met who’ve done the same thing weren’t fit to lead a dog, let alone Great Britain.
31 Rik No they do not average out which is why the Wells Swingometer based on more accurate data always gives different results to Baxter .
The difference in support figures in the 2 Yougov polls is of no statistical significance given the M of E .
27 – Tim I don’t think either of us were being entirely serious. Of course no one seriously thinks the Lib Dems will go down to 13 seats.
However I don’t think council by-elections are a particularly good way of judging the public mood either. In the year or so leading up to the 1997 (IIRC) election the Tories were winning by-elections but it didn’t do us much good come the day of the election!
34. Mark, doesn’t Wells also use a different method (uniform swing vs proportional swing)?
Ok the Somerset result is in and a shock !!!!!!
N Somerset DC Pill Ward 2003 result was Lab 587 Con 222 LibDem 150 The byelection was ….
OT(-ish) - If Labour go into meltdown in the Welsh elections, who are thought to be the main beneficiaries?
A punt on Johnson is finally looking worthwhile. Clarke’s outburst shouldn’t be ignored. It could easily be the start of a STOP BROWN campaign. I’m seriously wondering whether Brown really is the right man for the job. The last few days haven’t covered him in glory and in the top job he’ll have to overcome far worse than that. Johnson is surely the only serious alternative and might even be Blairs choice.
32. Bob - no. Labour are quite capable of generating enough negative publicity about this by themselves. No need at all for any of the Tories to dive in. The odd shake of the head and sad ‘what does this mean for the country’ style comment is quite sufficient.
Ind gain from Labour with Conservatives going below the LibDems
Ind 360 Lab 353 LibDem 202 Con 147
35 -Precisely - but desperate LDs have been known to spin anything into a good result! lol
32 - “But where are the Conservatives? I appreciate that Cameron is presumably still in India, somewhat unfortunately, but shouldn’t they be putting the boot in, like Labour would have done unto them in the 90s?”
I’d rather the Tories didn’t, it’d look like cheap opportunism. Labour seems quite determined to commit regicide without any outside help, plus if we started gloating it might even remind them who they’re supposed to be fighting. Float serenely above the squabbling infants, Dave…
42. Mark, the Indy candidate was a former Libdem (the GE candidate against Liam Fox in 1997).
That’s a terrible result for Labour.
41 & 44 – Totally agree - I think we should steer well clear of it. I would think the one thing most likely to encourage greater unity within the Labour party is an attack from the Conservatives.
Cameron in India; As usual the wrong place at the wrong time. To be a good leader you have to be lucky as well as talented! He arrived in Afghanistan when the cameras were in Lebanon and in India when they were in London. For someone who chases publicity like lawyers chase ambulances he’s really not the hang of it.
I think council results are useful but not all that reliable. In 1997, iirc, the Tories actually picked up wards as a whole in the country evn as they melted down at GE level.
Lol - yes roger Cameron is always in the wrong place at the wrong time isnt he? That is why he failed to beat David Davis for the leadership - why he is trailing Labour so badly in the polls - I really must have a word with him!
Well Dennis Healy on Newsnight was suggesting that the job should be finished off while Norman Lamont was suggesting calm…
Personaly this attempted coup smacks of disorganisation and lack of clear thinking. Who seriously thinks PPS’s and a junior minister going was going to acheive anything without a follow up killer blow.
I thought there must have been a killer blow out there. I was wrong. From the news reports it seems than a very uneasy peace has been declared for an indeterminate period of time. For Labour this is the worst of all worlds.
In short, if they were going to do it they should have been able to finish the job. Dragging it out is very bad news for Labour so they should not have started.
That said as a Conservative, I am very much looking forward to the next round. There have been a few on the record bitter statements.
48 - Council results as a whole can be useful - but a single by election in a single ward tells us almost nothing at all. It certainly tells us nothing about the national picture.
47 - Roger, I love you dearly - in a remote and entirely platonic way - but you are truly becoming a bit of a parody of a parody.
The YouGov poll is in line with other polls that indicate that when Tony leaves a few % of voters would move from LD to Lab and from Lab to Tory.
That said the actual LD MPs will be higher than the poll because of tactical voting where Labour is the third party. But for the LDs they are still staring at a loss of 1/3 of their MPs.
Fanatastic news from Anthony Wells. I know Nick Palmer will read the following with a grim smile of recognition on his lips:
**************************************************
There is little confidence that Gordon Brown will be an improvement on Tony Blair. Only 20% of people think he will be better than Blair, with 22% thinking he will be worse. Overall 30% of people think Brown will prove a good Prime Minister, with 38% thinking he will be a bad one. Only a third now think that Brown has done a good job as Chancellor, only a fifth think him honest and only a sixth like him. That said, he still has no serious challenger for the position - amongst Labour supporters he is first choice of over 50%, with John Reid second on just 9%.
*********************************************************
So - 1. Brown will be an election losing disaster
2. There’s no way to stop him.
STOCKHOLM, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats and their allies edged further ahead of the opposition with just nine days to go before the election, but the two blocs remained close, a poll on Friday showed.
The Social Democrats, Left and Green party saw their support rise to 48.9, up 0.4 percent in the daily Sifo poll for Svenska Dagbladet.
The centre-right opposition bloc of the Moderates, Centre, Folk Liberals and the Christian Democrats were backed by 46.7, percent, down 0.6 percent.
The poll was conducted between Sept 3 and Sept 6 with 1,164 people interviewed.
Although the alliance saw their support fall back, the Folk Liberals, hit by a data theft scandal which sent them to their lowest level of backing in four years, recovered some ground.
They polled 8.8 percent, up 1.2 percent overnight, thanks in part to a strong performance by leader Lars Leijonborg in a question and answer session on television on Thursday.
Tabloid Expressen painted the TV appearance as a success, saying 43 percent of its readers gave him top marks after the question and answer session.
The Folk Liberals, the second-largest group in the opposition, were forced to admit one of their staff gained access to Social Democrat computers and confidential information earlier this year.
Perhaps DC is saving his material for his conference speech, which should be a classic - assuming Ming hasn’t used all the best gags first in his speech…
As Brown keeps shooting himself in the foot how Ministers who looked like no-hopers must now be kicking themselves for not separating themselves from the crowd. If for example Johnson had resigned over Lebanon-as Cooke would have done-then now Brown has imploded he would be a racing certainty
32 , yes she was very keen on including herself and Miliband in a ‘new generation of Mp’s and ministers Brimming with ideas..’
I think this is another factor the media hasn’t picked up yet -that the Miliband,Byrne,Purnell,Kelly,Benn,Flint generation are moving up the rungs and presumably calculating strategies .
If you look at Tom Watson’s website his last entry before the resignation letter specifically mentions this ‘younger generation brimming with ideas’ (granted a number are firm Brownites- Yvette Cooper,Ed Balls).
Alex Hiltons piece on ‘the millenium group’on Labourhome highlights the links between those who signed the Tony must go letter and contrary to the print media he seems to infer that they acted independantly.
Brown v Blair is the dominat story but i’ve started to notice that amongst MP’s of a certain age the words “a new generation Brimming/fizzing with ideas” keep apearing as much as ‘Renewal’ did in May.
The obvious point would be when Kinnock stood down who at the time actualy noticed Blair,Brown,Mandelson etc ?
Miliband nailed his colours to the Brown mast this week, and I’ve seen it reported that Purnell and Byrne have switched to Brown . But am curious about how co-ordinated this ‘generation ‘ is in forming its own faction.its obviously in their interests to do so
54. Don’t be so drastic, Commentator.
I suppose that committed LD and Con voters would give him negative marks, whilst Labour voters will tend to give positive marks.
The “don’t know” in that question are the ones who will decide everything once they make their mind up and it’ll probably due to how he’ll perform as PM. The same thing can be said with other candidates IMO.
http://chapter15.wordpress.com/
Nirj Deva MEP for UN Secretary General? Is this really happening?
JohnO. Occasionally a tactical diversion is necessary! To-day is the first time I’m really wondering whether Labour are in trouble. Their best chance might be Cameron screwing up.
Sad but true!
60. Can we propose Caroline Jackson? I trust all ConHome posters would campaign for her
60 - Nirj is a serious contender and has been garnering support for some time. I do hope that he is successful!
63 - Who is next on the list for the Tory MEP list for SE England should Deva go to the UN? Which wing of the Tory MEP group are they from?
62. Blair’s going to need a new job soon, isn’t he?
60, 63
64. SBS, it’s former MEP James PROVAN
Roger, it is interesting to see your comments on Brown.
This week has been a mess, and whilst the serious fighting has died down for now, it clearly is simmering.
The advantage Johnson has, is that so far as I can tell he looks to have clean hands.
If there was to be a slugging match between say Brown and Reid I could see people voting Johnson as a unity candidate much in the same way they voted for Major. Obviously the electoral college is bigger than was the case for Major so we don’t know what will happen. We will however see.
60. I wrote a letter to Mr Deva once. If he had the slightest chance I would reveal his extraordinarily rude reply. The subject was Ugandan Asians. I wanted to know how someone who had benefited from asylum themselves wanted to shut the door to others in the same boat.
69. I’m sure such a revelation would scupper his career completely.
68. Not that anyone care, but I like Johnson. I can also see appealing to voters. Reid is more similar to Brown in some aspects(none of them are really charming individual)
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/comment/0,,1867521,00.html
A pretty good summary IMO
60 I have great respect for Nirj Deva as a sound MEP. But I believe the front runner will be Prince Zeid of Jordan, Jordan’s Ambassador to the UN. The time seems ripe for an Arab from a moderate Muslim country which maintains relations with Israel.
I withdraw my
@66. Nirj canvassed for me a couple of years ago, so he’s a cert!
73 - No, IIRC the international ‘buggins turn’ means that the next Sec Gen will almost certainly be from Asia.
Just to correct a post from yesterday: it was suggested that MPs have an interest in fighting elections and losing, rather than standing down voluntarily. I think this used to be true, but I’ve now looked it up and it seems no longer the case. MPs get a “resettlement grant”, which seems pretty much like a redundancy payment, ranging from 50% to 100% of salary, depending on age and length of service. If you’ve served for less than 10 years or are under 50 or over 68 you get the minimum; if you’ve served 15+ years and are 55-64 you get the maximum.
To avoid the otherwise inevitable jibes, I’ll point out that I announced my intention to stand again before the question was raised, and I couldn’t remember the answer!
BTW, it’s hard to believe serious posters here think that a council by-election or two is more significant than a national opinion poll. I’ll take YouGov as a reasonably accurate indicator over Warrington any day.
Secretary General of the UN: Is there a betting market on this anywhere?
71 - Indeed - I woudl agree, which is why my money is firmly behind him at the moment…
So let’s recap Nirj Deva advantages/disadvantages:
positive points: he canvassed for John O a couple of years ago
negative points: he sent a rude reply to Roger
unknown effects: he managed to lose his seat against Ann Keen.
27,35 etc Max and Rik. Like most of us, I suspect, I have had rather more experience at fighting elections to think that one local byelection makes a summer (or a winter for that matter!). I do, however, while we speak of summer, feel that the overall trend over this summer has given LDs a taste of success, which judged on the stagnant performance in May this year can only be good. i do not necessarily think that there is a Westminster or specifically leadership implication, but it will, I am sure give analysts of these events, eg Thrasher and Rallings, plenty to chew over! The North Somerset result btw, could be represented as pretty much a setback for all 3 parties. I don’t know the situation, so am unable to comment further.
76. Indeed Nick P…..perhaps it is the description ’serious posters’ that needs to be questioned.
78 - Andrea, But surely sending a rude reply to ‘Jolly’ Roger is a far more positive point than canvassing for me
Nick 76
I think the thing about the YouGov poll is that it had the misfortune of emerging at the time of major disruption in your party, whereas the survey work was no doubt done before the impact of the storm was felt through the media. we will see the effects no doubt as more polls come through. But are you seriously saying that despite other poll evidence seems to be showing LDs at worst flatlining, and generally moving up a point or two, that you are taking that one poll above what do appear to be current trend lines?
67 - as it’s a former MEP, it must be somebody who dropped down the Tory list. A pro-European, I shouldn’t wonder. Is he still a Tory?
(All idle speculation, as Deva won’t get the job. He is Asian born, however, and has dual nationality - UK and Sri Lanka - which fulfils one criterion. In terms of it being Asia’s turn, Jordan is in Asia. And if you are being picky and say that the Middle East is not really Asia, then it is surely the Middle East’s turn.)
76. yes, Nick, the “resettlement grant” was introduced Salary Review of 1991.
A small correction is that you get the minimum (50% of your salary) if you’ve 70+ years old MPs, not over 68. 69 years old MPs can get more than 50% is they’ve served 11 (or more) years.
I think that the last review of senior salaries made a recommendation to review it in the future (for ex if giving it to MPs who will be already entitled of a full pension when they stand down)
What about the dynamics in the Cabinet?
For Brown as PM = 11 Milliband, Kelly, Harman, Darling, Des Browne, Hain, Alexander, Timms, Straw, Amos, Benn.
Believed Against = 8 Reid, Hutton, Blears, Jackie Smith, Hewitt*, Jowell, Armstrong, Falconer.
Unknown = 4 Alan Johnson, Hoon, Prescott, Beckett.
(*Has Hewitt come out in favour of Brown in the past?)
Whoever takes over, about half this Cabinet will be gone because of age or because of the camp that they are in.
Yes Nick, apologies for raising the subject, I hadn’t realised the rules had changed to the current more sensible arrangement.
The inevitable response to your comment about council elections and YouGov is - What will you do if (when) the polls start showing Labour in the 20’s? Why should your “core” supporters who are staying at home in the byelections (council and national) change their minds and come out and vote?
Clearly Tony Blair has had to agree with Gordon that he would stand down in February but be allowed to say that he will choose the date - and even Gordon has said that Tony could choose, so it must be true.
I had thought that that might lance the boil, but this morning shows that the momentum for an early (immediate) exit is becoming unstoppable - I wish I had kept my Q4 2006 bet on now.
84 - Unfortunately, the current arrangements, including pension arrangements, can lead to some MPs in poor health running again when they should not.
83 - Not really: wasn’t Boutros Ghali (?) an Eygptian? OK, should have said South Asia.
Andrea. I agree with you that Johnson seems nice enough and he’s much better than Reid who I think we all agree is awful. However Labour had the two greatest politicians of the age working side by side. It was Labour’s USP.
If Blair goes and Brown doesn’t cut it then they join the Tories in the land of the mediocre. A lot of the core of the Labour Party is unattractive to centrist voters. The likes of Short, Dobson, Kilfoyle etc etc.
Those two made it different. We’ve never known what Brown would be like as leader but yesterday we might have had a glimpse. Things don’t look too rosy do they?
88 - yes, forgot about Boutros Ghali. (Must watch some Fast Show repeats).
86. Icarus, where is the evidence that the momentum for a Q4 (or earlier) exit is becoming unstoppable? I should like to know because I laid Q4 at odds of between 4 and 5 on Betfair and have watched the price drift a little. Ignoring the trivial sums on offer at 4 and 5, the true price for a lay seems to be 6 (i.e 5-1).
Apologies to Mr Deva. The gentleman I was complaining about was Michael Howards adviser on matters of immigration. A Ugandan Asian who came here when he was four years old to escape from Idi Amin but latterly decided asylum should be scrapped. I can’t remember his name
85. Harman and Hoon aren’t in the Cabinet.
87. SBS, what are the difference in pension arrangements for hill health MPs?
86. Icarus, further to my query at 91, the precise numbers are £5 at 4.5 and £4 at 5.5. There is then £50 available at 6 - hardly a mountain of money but enough to regard that as the true price.
Can you assist?
Thanks
94 - I’m not sure; it’s just something I had heard. I don’t think there is a facility for MPs to take “ill health early retirement” which most pension schemes offer. I think that if an MP dies whilst still in the House, the benefits for the spouse are better. This may encourage some MPs to stand again, and if elected effectively sign up to a 4-5 year term, when they perhaps should not.
I may be wrong, however.
HF @ 85 - any Prime Minister will have some ministers who disagree politically with them (otherwise there would be no need for collective responsibility) and a good many ministers who covet the top job. Brown will need to accommodate his opponents.
Does Gordon Brown have any great interest in foreign policy? We know he thinks third world poverty is a bad thing but beyond that has his silence been due only to his domestic/foreign policy job split agreement with Tony Blair, or will he be content to appoint a powerful Foreign Secretary?
We were discussing the rules on the Betfair market…was there an agreed conclusion? My guess is that is that Blair announces a date on which he will resign as Leader and PM, but retains both positions until that date.
96. Thanks SBS. I checked and they’ve the “ill health early retirement”, but you’re right that if they die in office the benefits for the spouse are better
95. I indeed laid Q4 yesterday - but the price refused to drop too far. If Blair survives the conference there are no real landmarks before 2006.
Revised list
For Brown as PM = 10 Milliband, Kelly, Darling, Des Browne, Hain, Alexander, Timms, Straw, Amos, Benn.
Believed Against = 9 Reid, Hutton, Blears, Jackie Smith, Hewitt, Jowell, Armstrong, Falconer, Alan Johnson (a rival)
Unknown = 2 Prescott, Beckett.
Leaving with Blair whatever happens? = Prescott, Beckett, Falconer …
Nick Robinson covering a similar theme in his beeb blog. I’ve no feel for the end game in this - ok Brown takes over but he doesnt seem the type to mend fences - there will be a lot of senior Labs ined up against him.
>Prescott, Beckett, Falconer …
The three stooges?
In an article in the Sun, Gordon appears to be in favour of ID cards and more than 28 day detention. He is still nailing his colours to the Iraq mast.
Fantastic. Come on Gordon!
I think that if that realy is his position he will have issues with old Labour.
102 - or retiring and not standing at the next election
I see that Austin Mitchell is in full form:
(from his blog)
100. We are like-minded, Jamie, and I am tempted to lay more 2006 but I am just a little bit nervous and await a reply from Icarus.
Peter - I too have closed my Q4 position because I thought that the Blair/Brown deal would hold. The sound of Kelly on Today this morning, plus the expectation of continuing poor council election results for Labour, and the panic that will set in amongst the Nick Palmers when the first poll shows 20 something for Labour. All this seems to indicate that Blair is on the slide.
Add the Unions, as the only source of funds available to an otherwise bankrupt party, threatening to withhold the cheque unless Blair goes. I cannot see where else they can get any money to keep the organisation going. You cant buy a peerage now, there is not a lot of point buying influence with a soon to be gone Government, and even mild mannered David Sainsbury must be fairly pissed off.
107. Never back against Blair - time and time again he wriggles free from the noose !
101 - I see the “againsts” are a motley crew! Apart from perhaps Johnson and Reid, I’d be delighted to have people of the calibre of Hilary Armstrong, Patricia Hewitt, Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears and ol’ flatmate Falconer against me!
Does anyone know if Peter Kilfoyle has backed Brown, yet? He was once talked of as a stalking horse.
91. I am still happy to have money on Oct-Dec departure date for now. I am not sure how things are going to go in the next couple of months, Blair has to get through the TUC and Labour conference before we even see what happen’s in Westminster. I am wondering just how many polls/PMQ’s he and the backbencher’s will be able to stomach! Also we still have the “cash for peerages” investigation simmering.
We all know how hard it is for Blair to be removed as Labour leader but I am not convinced he won’t resign.
08. Icarus - Thanks for your response. I note your your opinions and have no quarrel with them. However, if there were ‘unstoppable momentum’, as you indicated in posting 86, I should have thought this would have been reflected in the Q4 price by now. It isn’t, so I conclude that the momentum isn’t entirlely unstoppable.
Jamie at posting 100, I am now happy to hold my lay of Q4. I may lay a little more, subject of course to any new developments.
111. Peter Kilfoyles has just had two heart attacks and a quad bypass op. The only sabotage he could inflict on Blair these days would be to discontinue living, with the resultant Lib Dem win in his seat at the by-election.
Brown would not wory too much about a Kilfoyle challenge, but perhaps the propoganda. Peter K was the Labour election agent who predeicted a win for his party in the Ribble Vally by-election and Liberal Democrats nowhere. I still have the leaflet containing the ‘mother of all bar charts’ which would make Comical Ali look very serious.
89. roger - would you vote for John Denham instead? For me, the only non-negotiable is the economics, which can be easily dealt with by making Ed Balls Chancellor, if Brown is not there. The rest - ID cards, Iraq, etc, I’d gladly dump. I think Denham is heavy weight enough to extricate us out of Iraq. I don’t think Johnson is up to the job, and I don’t like Reid. And unfortunately people like you don’t like Brown. What say you?
114 - how dare he produce comical bar charts…we all know there’s a lib dem patent on that one
115 You wouldn’t be promoting your own MP there would you Snowflake5? Actually I think he’s quite sensible for a Labour MP, but I didn’t think you liked his opinion on immigration. Ooops. No stop seanT. Don’t respond to that. NOOOOOOO!
In response to the question posed earlier - will Brown be content with a powerful Foriegn Secretary. I can’t see Brown being content with ANYONE who has ANY power being allowed anywhere near his cabinet, can you? Control freak that he is, ALL departments will be run from No 10 and the cabinet will be full of Red Dawn’s fussing uselessly carrying out the boss’s orders.
116
Ah Rik’s back. Any comment about the conviction for drink driving of your erstwhile Reading colleague Rik?
Re 23,27,28,35 etc.
Last night council elections good for Lib dems who on this occasion benefited from Labour weakness.
However the bigger picture provided by opinion polls suggests it is the Tories who will be rejoicing most after the May 2007 locals.Using late August ICM figure swing since May 2003 is
11% Lab to Con,5% Lib to Con and 6% Lab to Lib.
This suggests massive meltdown for Labour mostly to the benefit of the Tories.,and whilst the Lib dems would gain from Labour this would be offset by heavy lossesd to the Tories.
Cameron would emerge the trimphant with huge extra credibilty as a likely general election winner.
Gordon would have a fight recovering from that so his best bet is tl let Blair go aftre May so tone takes the blame.
RogerH
119. Rik knows Paris Hilton ?
115 - eh, all I know is I’m not voting for ID cards. Do not want them.
121. Do - there’s nothing very Paris Hilton about Reading East Tories.
Sorry - I stand corrected - the space between their ears
123, Dunno - Both are more popular than Gordon
117. No, he’s in the neighbouring constituency (I am in Southampton Test). And no, I don’t like his ideas on immigration. But I also disagree with Brown over his euro-scepticism, and ID cards, and with Blair on Iraq, the USA, ID cards.
So you could say Denham is the least offensive!
121. Very sharp, Jamie.
Did you pick up my post at 113?
19. What about this Lib Dem drink driving councillor?
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/81/81125_drinkdrive_councillors_voter_pledge.html
All I can say is that this row should be an example for any PM that wants to stay on for longer than two terms. As that old public advert said “STOP
All I can say is that this row should be an example for any PM that wants to stay on for longer than two terms.
As that old public advert said “STOP, LISTEN, THINK!” The thinking part should include the question “is it worth staying on for a few more years if I’m going to be forced out at the end?”
I wonder why Blair didn’t sack Brown years ago.
126. Yep - I’ve got money reserved for the cricket today - surely England must win sometime - otherwise I’d be taking the 4,5 and 6 avail to lay on Q4 - and I may later if we win )
The media/public are tiring of this and any push over the top from Brownites would have happened by now. Even headbanger Clarkes rant is unlikely to keep this pot boiling.
John Denham is far too nice to be PM! And though very able not in that league.
I would have thought the betting strategy is to wait for Brown to drift a little (maybe 1.5?) then back him. Wait again for one clear challenger to emerge (probably Johnson) then try to back him/her at > 5. With Lab’s system and the bedrock Brown support I cannot see a genuine 3 or 4 way contest.
Can the admin please delete the partial post above my last one.
101. HF I still dispute your list - Hain, Straw, Amos and Benn are not Brownites - they say very postive things about Gordon - `natural successor’ etc, because they can see the way the wind is blowing. But if the polls show Brown would be the wrong choice and someone like Johnson builds momentum they will be more than happy to switch. When they say `I will vote for Gordon Brown in a leadership election’ rather than `Gordon Brown has been a brilliant chancellor an is the natural successor to Tony Blair’ then you can put them in that camp.
There is also an element of them calming the ship by not allowing the Blairite `ultras’ to get momentum.
The only Brown certainties are Milliband, Kelly, Darling, Des Browne, Alexander, Timms, all of whom have worked for him, except Milliband - whose brother has.
131. Jamie, I too have suffered from England Must Win Sometime disease and it has cost me a lot of money. (But not as much money as Spain Have The Best Squad In The World Cup disease.) Good luck anyway.
I’m afraid I snapped up all the 4.5 available on Betfair so you may have to settle for a bigger price - unless of course Big Ears ramps up the position for us again!
Enjoy the cricket.
Where can I place a bet that Brown will never be PM?
The details of the YouGov Labour members poll are now up on their website.
If these were the candidates for the leadership of the Labour Party when Mr Blair steps down, which would you vote for?
Gordon Brown 57
John Reid 10
Alan Johnson 8
David Miliband 7
John McDonnell 5
Don’t know 12
If these were the candidates for the deputy leadership of the Labour Party when Mr Blair steps down, which would you vote for?
Hilary Benn 27
Alan Johnson 18
David Miliband 17
Harriet Harman 10
Hazel Blears 7
Don’t know 22
Don’t know why Peter Hain wasn’t included among the Deputy options. I would also have liked to see John Denham there.
Re the North Somerset by-election.
Other than being the 1992 and 1997 Libdem candidate in Woodspring, the indepdent elected yesterday was the former leader of the North Somerset council.
I suppose the Labour candidate is yelling towards some MPs now….she missed by 7 votes, I suppose that without the last 2 days events she could have won the seat.
The LDs have been fairly quiet on this issue so far: while the Conservatives and the Nationalists have taken the opportunity to gloat and point out Labour divisions, Ming and the rest have been less ready to make hay.
In addition, it’s a testament to the destruction of Prescott’s stature that he’s been totally invisible during this crisis. Had this occurred before his recent scandals, he probably would been playing an important role in mediating between the two big players, speaking directly to aggreived backbenchers and ministers, media appearances and so on. The problem is that there’s no-one who can really fill that role, although Jack Straw has effectively taken on some of these tasks by default.
134, well Hain is peeved with Tony not giving him a different job and Straw is still upset over being moved from the F&CO which Bliar did because of his cosying up to Brown and his opposition to bombing Iran. Amos and Benn have nailed their support to Brown and cannot now back ABB (Anyone but Brown) in the leadership election whatever the polls start to say.
139. Are you sure? I would say the Tories AND the Lib Dems have been relatively quiet on the issue. No “gloating” from the part of the leadership, really. Both DC and Ming have been quoted as saying that the current divisions slow down government business. Not really much difference, between them.
Cameron did provide the “meltdown” comment; you’d think that the LDs would also take the opportunity to present themselves as statesmanlike in opposition to the squabbling in Labour’s ranks.
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=131877
Camerons back from India and is straight into the Labour leadership meltdown, good good!
138. Andrea - the North Somerset Lib Dems seem to have some difficulty holding on to their councillors…
http://www.thewestonmercury.co.uk/content/twm/news/story.aspx?brand=Westonmercury&category=news&tBrand=westonmercury&tCategory=znews&itemid=WeED12+Jun+2006+15%3A42%3A41%3A690
x32. There is no law saying a nice person can’t be PM! The only rule should be Are they able? Denham is intelligent, capable and humane, and he’s also New Labour as it was in it’s early incarnation.
Prodicus 36 (what does prodicus mean?)- lay Gordon on Betfair for £4 risked you could win £10 and you wouldn’t have to wait until Brown Died it is all on the next labour party leadership vote.
144 - Rik’s Mum?
Can we expect there to be some opinion polls out over the weekend after this very interesting week in British politics?
135 - Peter - someone has filled up the market there is some more avail at 4.1 - 6 . Free money IMHO.
147 - how rude! My Mum has never been a Lib Dem!!!
Now I want to know who’re those 40% of Labour members polled by Yougov who want to bring Clare Short back into the Cabinet!
She’s the most polarizing among the names suggested with few opting for “don’t know”
149. At we looking at the same thing, Jamie? I see £4 at 5.2, 5.4 and 5.5 - you are welcome to hoover that up if you like. I’ve layed as much as I want already.
There’s still £50 available at 6 - which is why I regard that as the proper price (and imho a fair assessment of the true probability.)
…Are we looking, I meant. Typo disease. No known cure.
153. My colour blindness - there is still some at 5.4+
Next GE btw is now Cons 1.78, Lab 2.28
To get an overall majority Lab 3.8 to back, 3.95 to lay, Cons 3.45 to lay (nothing to back !)
154. No value at all in GE betting right now. I would expect Lab to continue their drift and tighten again close to the election as fundamentals reassert. No point in entering the market now - too far out, too volatile, too much money tied up for too long.
155. I concur - but interest to track developments on the market vs the media. Cons have come in from 2 to sub 1.8 hard in the last two months.
Did anyone else just hear Frank Field on R4? He spoke of the “arrogance” of Brown “assuming” he can become PM, calling it “appalling”. A contest is absolutely necessary, he said, no PM should be allowed to just walk into the job.
He was then asked who else could run for the job.
“There are two names” he expects to be put forward. “Alan Johnson and John Reid”.
Game on.
137 - I think this sort of poll is utterly irrelevant. A year before David Cameron won the Tory leadership, how many of their members would have said they’d vote for him? The campaign will narrow the gap significantly, even if Brown wins in the end.
RE 157, No I missed it. Had to do some work so could not have the radio on.
Pleased to here it though.
156. Seems fair enough.
Interested in a bet on the St Leger tomorrow? Sixties Icon is favorite at 2.5 but Red Rocks has very similar form and is therefore better value at 5.3, having come in for steady support in the last few days. At bigger prices, Ask and Galient are interesting at 20 and 36 respectively.