Why the Brown campaign will blow itself up?
September 8th, 2006- Is his inability to take criticism his fatal flaw?
My biggest “person” bet of 2004 was a big lay when he was odds on that the former Governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, would not take the Democratic nomination. I risked a thousand or so after being advised by an academic friend in the state that Dean had furious temper and that sooner or later he would blow himself up - which it did.
My biggest person bet in 2005 was against David Davis getting the Tory leadership. Then I risked a lot more money because I could not see how someone who then had such poor communication skills could make it in such a prolonged campaign.
Now my biggest person bet ever will be that Gordon Brown will not succeed Tony Blair.
- My reasoning is simple - everything I’ve observed and read about Gordon suggests that he cannot handle personal criticism.
This is why he is always so reluctant to put himself in the firing line - why he lets his juniors deal with the difficult issues at question time and why he avoids potentially difficult interviews.
During the coming months he’s going to have to break cover some time and when he does anything could happen. By allowing Blair to continue well into 2007 he has ensured that he will be subject to an extended period of intense scrutiny. Gordon, for all he has been a brilliant Chancellor, has not got the character to handle this.
- Labour is choosing the next Prime Minister - Gordon cannot avoid putting his head above the parapet.
Although I will maintain my positive positions on Reid, Johnson, Benn and Hutton my major betting, when the price is right, will be lays on Brown.
Latest Labour leader prices are here
Mike Smithson
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You’re a brave man, Mike.
The electoral college in both the examples you cite is very different to the electoral college which will decide the next Labour leader. And in both cases, what was being chosen was an opposition leader, not a President/PM. It makes a difference.
It’s Brown (or I’ll eat Rik’s hat).
Brown has been a very good chancellor.
However, its like been a brilliant specialist in your field, for example a
consultant.
Everyone admires your intellect and respects that, but if you do`nt have the people skills like a superb GP, respect stays in that arena, and does not spread outwards.
I’ve always argued that it will be Brown and I’ve not seen anything to change my mind yet. Apart from the electoral college favouring Brown, which Stephen rightly mentions, the favourite usually gets the leadership in the Labour elections. Also, when succeeding a sitting PM, the job has always gone to a very senior minister - usually chancellor of foreign secretary.
The danger to Brown is that one alternative candidate builds enough momentum to collect all the anti-Brown votes. Without that, he will be so far ahead before the race starts that it’s only worth bothering anyone else entering either to put down a marker for next time or to demonstrate a sufficiently large base to ensure a seat in cabinet. Other people have tried to achieve this position over the last 12 years but none has succeeded, there are only months left now.
The advantage of laying Brown at least is that it doesn’t tie up too much money as he’s such short odds. If you’re looking for a better lay, I’d suggest Hillary Clinton.
3 - but if Brown self destructs and takes himself out of the race altogether?
3 - “If you’re looking for a better lay, I’d suggest Hillary Clinton” - Bit old for me, I’ll leave that to Bill…
Sorry - I agree with the sentiment intended actually… just waiting for people to start to be more interested and unknowledgably back her in a touch first.
2 - compare to “Ming was a very good foreign affairs spokesman for the LDs. However, its like being a brilliant specialist in your field, for example a consultant. Everyone admires your intellect and respects that, but if you don’t have the people skills like a superb GP, respect stays in that arena, and does not spread outwards.”
Therefore, it may well be that Gordon will become PM, but very quickly he will find it tough. People will no longer listen - they will interrupt. There will be many more putdowns. He will find it tough to speak outside his field. The respect will no longer be automatic.
6. I agree. I think Brown will make it simply because the blood-letting - and guilt - would be too intense in Labour circles if he didn’t. It’s not just a question of Brown’s qualities - it’s the expectation that he will take over, the fact he’s been waiting 12 years, etc.
For Labour to drop him now would be an extraordinary revolution, and arguably catastrophic for internal unity (such as it is). The Brownites would never forgive the rest of the party, and they’d have a point.
So, barring unforeseen, he must take the crown. However I agree he will then explode in office - he hasn’t got the Right Stuff to be leader. Brown is a fine lead guitarist, not a lead vocalist. Big difference.
4. Always a possibility with anyone, but he’s been at the Treasury for 9 years, which is a high profile job no matter how many times he’s gone missing when something awkward crops up.
As was said in the last string, his whole modus operandi revolve around not taking chances. I wouldn’t expect that to change now - besides, he has too many votes in the bag in the MPs and unions section to need to take the kind of risks that could lead his campaign to self destruct. If it goes through to May then he has the budget to promote himself and also as an excuse to avoid anything controversial at the time. After that, it’s the local elections.
Could he self-destruct during the race itself? Again, it’s possible, but I’d predict there won’t be any debates as there were in the Tory and Lib Dem contests - “not suited to parties in government who have to exercise collective responsibility” or something similar. My prediction would be that the only chance of him self destructing will be if he’s already behind and therefore in a situation he’s not familiar with. As I’ve said, I don’t think he’ll be in that position in the first place.
… actually, to continue the rock group analogy (which I rather like), Brown is like Eddie van Halen, whereas Tony Blair is Dave Lee Roth.
When they kicked Dave Lee Roth out of Van Halen, they didn’t put Eddie in the front, and quite rightly, they got that guy from AC/DC or wherever.
Trouble is, Brown is managing the band, so he can put himself where he likes.
He’ll tank.
BTW I think Reid is a drummer, Hain is the effete keyboardist, Clarke is the roadie, and Johnson the working class bassist.
8. “Again, it’s possible, but I’d predict there won’t be any debates as there were in the Tory and Lib Dem contests - “not suited to parties in government who have to exercise collective responsibility” or something similar. ”
and he can probably handle a debate with other contenders in a decent way without the help of Down Primarolo anyway. During leadership dabates, other contenders can’t be too critical, because they’re talking about their own party’s main figures anyway.
The real problem for Gordon is that he has created a lot of enemies because he has trampled over people’s policy areas and he has ensured that others have got the blame for his policy ideas - e.g. tuition fees.
This means that there are 5 or 6 in the cabinet and another 20 or so junior ministers who really can’t stand him. That is enough to do him a lot of harm but not Necessarily enough to stop him winning.
Of course, there are also the Milburns and Byers of the world but their interventions normally help Gordon. I think that Paradoxically, if the Blairites back off it may make it more likely Gordon will face a serious contender but as soon as they give the impression they are backing someone else Gordon automatically commands the 60% or so who think Blair has gone too far in a market direction and on pro US foreign affairs.
A centre lefter who is strong on green issues will make it much harder for Gordon and I was interested to see that Hilary Benn was ahead for deputy leader in the Yougov poll. It would be great to see him expess an interest in the leadership but I very much doubt he will. That probably only leaves Johnson as a serious possibility but he needs to begin the process of distancing himself from Blair on foreign affairs and letting it be known he is a bit stronger on green issues than Gordon. If Gordon can give a lecture on Britishness why can’t other talk off their brief?
Brown hasnt been waiting 12 years, he’s been waiting his entire adult life. If the Labour party deny him it would be hilarious but would probably lead to the best lifelong sulk since Heath! I suspect he will make it, just! I have always thought that Brown’s premiership would bear analogies to Eden’s and that it will be sunk by the economy in the manner that Eden’s was sunk by Foreign Affairs.
9.
If Blair is Bono, brown is the edge in U2 and no one apart from anoroks knows the rest of the band.
The same with oasis and the gallacher brothers.
Comparisons with the US system don’t hold up. Brown is already known to the people who will choose him, in a way that Dean wasn’t. Davis was rejected because the Tory party wanted its own Tony Blair, Davis did not fit that bill. Brown will make it, good or bad, in fact he’s already there.
11. “I was interested to see that Hilary Benn was ahead for deputy leader in the Yougov poll”. But is it Benn who’s popular or the Sec/State for International Development. After all, it’s pretty difficult to become unpopular when your job involves saving starving Africans and the like. Even Clare Short got positive publicity most of the time.
The distinction might not matter, given that Benn is in that job, but I suspect that once the focus moves more to the candidates themselves he might drop off a bit.
Fairly noticeable move on the markets this evening - Brown out to 1.47, Johnson in to 7.6.
112 “Brown hasnt been waiting 12 years, he’s been waiting his entire adult life.”
So had Denis Healy!
Wouldn’t it be strange though to end up, after all that happened in the 1980s, with a Benn as deputy leader?
2-dez
‘Brown has been a very good chancellor.
However, its like been a brilliant specialist in your field, for example a consultant.
Everyone admires your intellect and respects that, but if you do`nt have the people skills like a superb GP, respect stays in that arena, and does not spread outwards.’
I couldn’t agree more,during my corporate career I have worked with many excellent Finance Directors that have been excellent in their speciality,but simply don’t have what it takes in terms of leadership skills to go further up the ladder to MD.
Whether Brown has been a good or bad chancellor I personally think is debatable.However,I would have thought that what was not debatable was Brown’s total lack of leadership skills whether it be Charisma,presentational,loyalty,stability,people etc.
In a week when our under staffed,under resourced, ill equipped military is suffering heavy losses in Afghanistan we have our future PM plottng and scheming to bring dowm his boss for his own selfish reasons.The picture that appeared in to-day’s newspapers of him grinning in the midst of the shambles of the last week or so will be long remembered.
From a purely partisan view I hope that Labour elects him,its hard to believe that the polls are consistently wrong about his lack of appeal to the electorate.
Brown might make it but his problem is that he has to simultaneously appeal to the three labour constituencies and retain the voters Blair won. We saw today in his Sun article & Britishness speech his strategy for the latter & for retaining Murdoch’s support - IDs Cards, 90 day detention, nuclear defence, internal war on UK based terrorists. No signs of turning away from the Blair authoritarianism agenda - nothing about Iraq. How does he then attract the Guardian/real labour crowd?
Someone like Johnson could re-position more to the left of centre on key issues because IMHO he connects better - the life story, sunglasses image would pull back many defectors to the LibDems. He isn’t in hock to Murdoch, doesn’t have Brown’s history, is much freer to be the change (and if Cameron could reject his earlier support for Howard’s policies while retaining Howard’s support I think Johnson could easily get Blair’s support for trashing some Blairite ones in the greater good of keeeping out Gordon).
I’d have to agree in principle with the logic of Mike’s bet. I’d agree Brown has a serious flaw and as pointed out on other posts he’s going to get a lot of criticism. To my eyes the media overall are going to give him a rough ride and since he hasn’t forged an alternative position in the public mind the media will have a overwhelming bearing on public perception.
Where I feel the lay may fall down is that the Labour Party currently has its head so far up its rear that it might take world class surgeon to get it out right now. Apart from those that will never vote Brown there will be some peel off of people who will see what way the wind is blowing but I would suggest, not enough.
Perhaps Mike could have held off a touch longer and let a little more evidence stack up before committing as much. I’m estiomating myself that it may be a while before the market starts to shift making the lay less value, though shift it will eventually. On the plus side there’s great chances of hedging when the market does move.
Fair play though to the punter who sees the patterns in his own successes and plays to them, i know thats how I made the best money in betting.
A New Labour MP & Blairite said recently “no way Brown, a 1000 reasons, where do you want to start?”. Many Labour MP’s are dreading Brown.
Reid - No; Miliband - No; Johnson - don’t know; Benn - ahh yes he said - very popular amongst all MPs, steady, fresh blood, a change, done well as a minister - if he puts his name forward - LIKELY. How many more New Labour MP’s are thinking the same?
Benn is the only guy that ticks most boxes. Fresh Blood/Renewal - appeals to left - appeals to right - no baggage - popular with the PLP - done a good job,
YouGov survey has him for Deputy as way out favourite leaving all comers trailing. This is JOE PUBLIC SPEAKING….. He will know he is way in front of Johnson et al.. but will he go for the top job. My money would be on a Brown/Benn ticket. What price the double? However only Benn can topple Brown in 3 way college voting system.
Remember the NEC elections and the Centre Left Grassroots Alliance’s breakthrough successes.
15. That may be so but I do not recall Baroness Amos getting that level of support and Clare Short may have been personally popular but people could see her flaws enough to be cautious about voting for her.
Maybe Brown is Johnny Marr to Blair’s Morrisey. The former held the thing together but is useless without a front man, the latter had great charisma but came out with a series of ridiculous statements and finally turned into a parody of himself.
Quick musician’s joke -
Q. What do you call a drummer without a girlfriend?
A. Homeless.
Blair is Freddie Mercury. A showman. A star.
Brown is Brian May. Excellent at what he does but rather dull in other ways.
3. The advantage of laying Brown at least is that it doesn’t tie up too much money as he’s such short odds. If you’re looking for a better lay, I’d suggest Hillary Clinton.
by David Herdson September 8th, 2006 at 6:05 pm
What rating would you give her out of 10 and David?
19. It would be interesting to see Johnson repositioning himself on those issues (he would probably become my fav candidate). In that case he would become the “unity” candidate, but it could leave open the question of what the Blairites would do (just “anyone but Gordon” or do they care to make sure the party will go on with those Blair’s policies?)
Ahem….Van Morrison..one grumpy looking and sounding *****
Complete Control, would Benn work with Brown? Woulds Brpwn want someone who could be a genuine long term rival as deputy?
The public survey was for Deputy, the move to contesting the leadership might see a very different result with Joe Schmo. I’m not sure he’d have enough profile & weight with the public, at this point anyway, for the big one.
Sorry Mike, I think you’re wasting your money there. I hope you’re not, because I dread a Brown premiership, but I really can’t see anyone else getting it.
It occurs to me however that when other senior Cabinet members have taken over as PM they have usually done something else. Gordon has been in the same job for so long, one wonders if he knows how to do anything else?
At least Alan Johnson has had experience of other departments…
21 - Benn does not appear thin skinned.
Andrea,
The Blairites don’t believe Gordon so they will go with someone who is positioned in a similar way but slightly more green and they know where the public is on Iraq. So it is there for the taking.
Good to see you back to your betting best, Mike. Like many of us observed at the time, the site would be much poorer without your crucial personal element. I hope it pays off for you!
Last comparison (honest)
Blair is Russell Mael, lead singer of the band Sparks, Brown is his scary keyboard player brother Ron Mael.
ukpaul..how appropriate…This Town Ain’t Big Enough For The Both Of Us.
BBC Radio has been majoring on Charles Clarke’s Evening Standard interview, which includes some criticism of Brown as well as some praise. Naturally they are spinning it as ‘leadership row continues’. But I think the timing issue has been successfully defused by TB for now (where are those “He’s toast!”/”He’ll be gone by October!” posts, eh?). Clarke’s interview is actually the start of the leadership debate, which we’ll have whether or not there is an actual contest: the question is no longer ‘when will Blair go?’ but ‘who is the right successor?’
This debate won’t necessarily will do Brown any harm. There is a lot of interest being generated in what he’ll be like, and I think Tories and LibDems will struggle to get much attention for some months, just as we did during the Tory leadership election. Labour people hoped that the latter would prove very damaging, but it didn’t, and I think Brown has a fair chance of turning this to his advantage. As for who wins, I still think he’s correctly long odds-on, though some of the support in polls of members simply reflects the absence of a serious challenger.
Had my first debate with my Tory opponent today, answering questions from 150 students at Nottingham U with two other Labour MPs, the Chief Constable and the head of the Israel Educational Trust - not sure how this speaker list was arrived at. Nobody asked about the leadership row, or Iraq, or Israel, or student fees: questions were mostly on American firms taking over British ones and laws on drugs and alcohol. A very polite occasion: *every* answer from *every* panelist was warmly applauded!
25. Delighted to set the punchline up.
As it happens, most of the criticisms that are being applied to Brown really do apply to her. I’m reading George Stephanopolous’ account of his time with the Clinton ‘92 campaign and afterwards in the White House at the momnet, and nothing in there has convinced me she has what it takes - too fiery, too stubborn, too polarising.
Re Benn - politics is sometimes an unfair game. George Osborne will never be the leader of the Conservative Party because his voice is wrong for the TV age; Benn will not be leader of the Labour Party because his opponents will use his name against him - Bennite solutions, policies etc. Just not the right image. On such things can turn the fate of the world (Gorbachev might never have become Soviet leader had not his main rival had the surname Romanov).
Nick
Students these days eh..no radical global politics more who ultimately holds the purse strings in the firm I want to join and where and when can I buy my booze.
Fair play to them, dealing with important bread and butter issues.
26. Andrea -Thatcher supported Major despite knowing he was going to change a few of her personal policies because she detested Hesiltine so easily see Tony backing his “friend, you see I have one friend” Johnson if he softened the authoritarianism, was more Union friendly, distanced himself from Bush.
30. Nick12, but if he ditches, as suggested in the early post, the terrorism policies (IIRC the last yougov has Labour members agreeing with 90 days, btw), ID cards), ID cards, foreign policy (Iraq war) and trident, it would be throwing away many Blair’s things (not that I complain!). I would say that they’re just in “anyone but Gordon” mood and they don’t care about policy direction so much (apart obviously still keeping the New Lab platform, but all contenders apart McDonnell would do it)
27 Brown might not have a choice. Benn might be imposed. I see he has been shortened from 44 to 34/1 on the betting exchanges in a week. I said two weeks ago back Benn!!! and I didn’t. Everyone at last years conference who had a wise and broad mind was quietly saying back Benn..
10 points shorter in the betting and now top of YouGov poll for Deputy… If we have a long run he could easily do a Cameron. Its the era of the anti-politician and that makes Brown weak if as someone said the Blairites back off. Johnson standing would make it a shoe in for Brown.
However MP’s have been manoeurving behnd the scenes for the ‘double or dream ticket’. Jack Straw has gone from up Bush’s backside to in private saying ‘Guantanomo Bay should be f**** shut down, f**** yanks and other anti Blair musings”. Rumour has it he sees it like you, a double ticket and wants to slipstream Brown in some sort of agreement which has been going on with canvassing.
Still Brown/Benn or Benn/Reid or Benn/Johnson
35 Didn’t I see an article in the Sunday Times at the weekend suggesting that some of friends are urging her not to run?
Is it just me or is her name mud even within elements of the Demycrats?
37. Ted, so it’s just “anyone, but Gordon” in the end, isn’t it?
I still say my crocodile baiting contest is the way to go for picking the new leader.
Mike,
Be very careful. The Tom Bower unofficial biography - your holiday reading and the source of the “cant take personal criticism” rumour is not worth the paper. It has an agenda to get Brown that was its raison d’etre. It’s not a serious biography. Bower from the Standard article is clearly a Tory.
Don’t risk your money on his so called expert opinion.
Having had the pleasure on more than one occasion I have seen nothing to say that he finds taking criticism any more difficult than any other politician (or civilian for that matter). Just one first hand account.
I would lay Johnson, he is a really bad bet at 7’s. He’d need to go to 40’s before I would back him. Reid form the Blair camp has experience and is known. He’s a better price but the game is largely up for the Blairites so lay Reid, Johnson and Milburn (joke price at 25/1).
1. A Blairite in anti-blairite times to CLPs.
2. Hardens the Gordon vote in he PLP which is many times bigger. ‘Anyone but Blair Mk2′
3. NEC elections go to CL Grass Roots Alliance
4. Unknown name to CLPs with no affinity or ‘background’ to relate to.
5. Is another ’split the party’ candidate
41 - Andrea - surely that the message coming out of the Blair camp. Brown seems to have won the first skirmish but I think Blair would be over-joyed to see him lose the final battle.
Classic Nick Palmer spin! According to Nick, the Charles Clarke interview contains ’some criticism of Gordon Brown’.
‘Some criticism’?!
As far as I can tell, Clarke said the Chancellor was ‘absolutely stupid, stupid stupid stupid.’
I wouldn’t like to be on the receiving end of a really harsh critique from Clarke, if this is just him being a bit negative.
Keep it up Nick! We all thought the dark arts of Labour spin had gone with Campbell and Mandelson, you are a worthy if modest successor, like Andrew Motion taking over from Ted Hughes.
Boris Johnson gotta love ya….a proper politician. If you are going to offend a country make it one thats small and far away.
I think that must be a new pb.com catchphrase, eg: I have ’some criticism’ of Caroline Jackson MEP.
49. Yes, lol, I have ’some criticism’ of Saddam Hussein’s treatment of his political opponents.
Mike - It’s an interesting suggestion but I would want some more hard evidence before I put any cash down. Is it really true that GB can’t take personal criticism? Or he is no different from most of us in that respect? Also, I can think of many other politicians who have had made it to the very top despite serious personal flaws.
re 43 Jonathan. From your post I assume that you a part of Team Brown in some way. I realise that smearing the messenger if you don’t like the message is a classic NuLab technique.
Tom Bower and I were law undergraduates for the same three years at the LSE in the 1960s and I’ve a great degree of respect for his work. I will make my own mind up about his Brown biography.
Mike Smithson
These days, one cannot have one’s footman open the Manchester Guardian for one without coming across an article by Lord Hattersley. It happens that I knew the young Roy Hattersley; he was 14 when I first met him and, as a scion of one of the area’s leading Labour families, already an Alderman of Sheffield. He would insist upon being borne into the council chamber shoulder high by cloth-capped workmen, while the various ward parties would vie for the honour of presenting him with meat-and-potato pies. With gravy running down his chin, he would spray pastry crumbs over the assembled company while demanding that the council pull down all the terraced houses and replace them with tower blocks. “And I want a multi-storey car park and pedestrian underpasses and a gyratory system and I want them now!” he would demand in a barely broken voice, while stamping his foot. In short, he represented all that was best in the municipal socialism of the 1960s
51.” I realise that smearing the messenger if you don’t like the message is a classic NuLab technique”
is the Libdem one “just smear the messanger and who cares of the message”?
34. Quite a few hostages to fortune in that post, Nick P.
51. Bravo Mike.
It gives me no pleasure to see Lord Levy in trouble with the Old Bill. In the 1970s, he was the manager of my old friend Alvin Stardust – in those days a regular denizen of the “hit parade” and frequently to be heard inviting listeners to be his coo ca choo – and I learned nothing but good of him. In particular, he would use his influence in the music world to secure work for aspiring Labour politicians who were temporarily embarrassed for funds. In those days, there was a popular group called The Wombles whose members dressed in the most amusing furry costumes. The advantage of that garb was that simply anyone could appear on stage as a Womble and the audience would be none the wiser. Over the years Jack Straw, Margaret Beckett and Dr John Reid were all pleased to dress up and earn a few bob in this way. I also recall that a struggling young lawyer named Anthony Blair would occasionally appear if briefs were slow coming in. Just as a Roman Emperor would keep a slave on hand to whisper “remember thou art mortal” in his ear from time to time, so our current Prime Minister would be well advised to have an aide say “remember you’re a womble” now and then. “Re-member-member-member what a womble womble womble you are,” he might add.
55. Don’t know who you are, Lord Bonkers, but that’s genuinely drole.
50. The problem Peter is that the media look to be lining up to tank Gordon. It’s not so much that he has the flaws more that they look like they are going to get exposed alot.
Would agree though on holding fire I don’t think the market is going to move too dramatically yet thus giving room to some evidence to stack up that Brown is in trouble.
53. uhm, I’m in a bit “bitchy” mood tonight…and my grammar tend to collapse in those occasions
LordBonkers I think you’ll find your friend Levy is up for the crime of being an accessory to Mr Stardust’s career…
52, 55
What with SeanT in top form, we’ve got the best of the wags tonight
53 - Andrea, You are a VERY naughty boy
56. http://www.bonkers.hall.btinternet.co.uk/
Shameless self promotion old chap….well done to you
61. Very funny blog! I have bookmarked it, and it now sits alongside
my favourite japanese eel-porn site.
I don’t think it’s possible to dislike Hilary Benn. And frankly i don’t think it’s possible to have a bad ‘name’ in politics. The Benn name can only help him (it’s certainly got to be a major factor in the YouGov poll). Someone who goes from a non-MP to a cabinet minister in 4 years has got to have something major going for them.
He would be perfectly placed to offer the contradictory attractions of a “clean break” but also “continuity”. Hey I’m liking him more and more
Anyone considering laying Brown or backing Reid/Johnson/Hutton should take a look at the YouGov poll of Labour party members. Not just the preferred candidate numbers which show the scale of the task for anyone trying to overhaul Brown in the constituency section, but also the members’ perception of the relative performance of Brown and Blair and where they see themselves, Blair and Brown on a right-left scale.
Candidates perceived as Blairite will face an uphill struggle because they are out of tune with the bulk of the party. I agree with the post by Ted that if Johnson repositioned himself on certain touchstone issues he could pose a threat, but such a move would be treated with suspicion by the rank and file.
Although a lot could change over the next six to nine months, the dynamics of the contest are less favourable to the outsiders than the Democratic nomination and the Tory leadership race.
In the USA the state by state primaries and caucuses allow a politician to build momentum. Similarly the Tories have multiple rounds of voting. Remember that Cameron finished behind Davis on the first ballot and still had less than 50% of MPs on the second. In the Labour leadership election all three sections vote at the same time on a single ballot with preference voting.
Does anyone have any idea who the cabinet minister who spoke to Nick Robinson was (who said Brown would be an effing disaster)?
66 - The general consensus appears to be Reid, with other suggestions being anyone from Hutton to Armstrong to Beckett.
64.”Someone who goes from a non-MP to a cabinet minister in 4 years has got to have something major going for them.”
Hewitt went from not being an MP to the cabinet in 4 years….what’s her “something major”? The “nanny” attitude?
66 - I think the assumption has been John Reid ‘cos he has form - eg, in this Mirror interview.
She’s obviously a very talented woman
Just a bit infuriating on TV. Must be her consultant background.
34 - “But I think the timing issue has been successfully defused by TB for now” Nick surely the timing issue has been defused by Gordon (if it has been defused). Gordon has told Tony when he is going and Tony has agreed.
The difficulty Blair has presented is that to some extent all Government Ministers who stand in election are in position of still having collective responsibility. So they can take the plaudits for whats gone well but if they condemn too hard what needs to change they are open to question “why didn’t you resign?” Brown has to be the continuity candidate in a way Heseltine didn’t but, unlike Major, without the old regime’s support.
If Robin Cook was around he could easily have led an anti-Brown campaign as he had resigned on principle. Doubt he’d have won but if Johnson, Benn etc really want the leadership perhaps they should be daring and resign so that they can campaign freely (and insure themselves by standing for both posts)
Mike - you’re throwing your money away. Brown is an absolute shoo-in. Backing him is free money.
I was talking to a very well connected member of the Labour Party yesterday (in fact we watched Blair’s ’statement’ together).
He said Brown was certain to win - ‘Labour made up its mind that it wanted Brown about five years ago’.
He was also appalled at Blair’s statement - said it felt like he had done it off the cuff, without advice and he cut a sad and lonely figure. I tend to agree - he really should have done the back me or sack me line.
Make of it what you will but Brown is the next PM…
Re Benn…I recall Diane Abbott (in her Portillo
Lord Bonkers do you know Jack W a North Briton who, I believe, passed (or was it pissed)through Rutland at some time.
ops, post not finished!
Re Benn…I recall Diane Abbott (in her Portillo/Neil love fest aka This Week) mentioning he refused the Work and Pension department when Blunkett resigned.
Is he afraid of new and maybe more difficult challange? Or was he calculating that he would make less enemies being Int Development Secretary?
35 David Herdson. Interesting point about Grigoriy Romanov - I’ve always suspected the name had something to do with it although I think you will find he also had something of a drink problem.
On the main point, I agree Mike is being very brave but although I think Gordon has done his chances no favours over the past few days he is going to be very hard to beat. Let’s just say the Blairites were able to agree on a “Stop Gordon” candidate - a tall order given, for instance, Clarke’s low opinion of Reid or Reid’s low opinion of Milburn. It would just look transparently like a stitch-up to party members and then the pendulum of sympathy would start to swing back to Brown again. Added to that, the party is sick of Blairism, and is scarcely in a mood to elect one of Blair’s favourites as his successor. There is a fairly settled view among Labour members and the unions that it has to be Brown and, as Sean T. says (7) it really would take an extraordinary turnaround for them to ditch him now.
72. Ted, the natural succesor to Robin Cook is John Denham. Resigned his ministerial post over Iraq, a constructive critic of the wilder shores of Blairism, in favour of proportional representation. A Brown/Denham ticket would win widespread support.
If it were a straight one man one vote scenario I could imagine Brown losing to a credible alternative candidate. There doesn’t seem to be one, yet at least. I happen to think Brown will get the top job because of the electoral college method but don’t feel he will go down well with the public.
“…Gordon, for all he has been a brilliant Chancellor…”
…that is a joke..? right..?
test
Geraldine Smith MP when asked about Mr Clarke’s suggestion that ultra-Blairite Alan Milburn was “leadership material”:
“Are you he wasn’t joking?”
77. True, as you say, his name wasn’t the only factor counting against him, but it didn’t help. Likewise with Benn - he’s too inexperienced and doesn’t have enough of a base to win the leadership even before other issues are considered. If anyone becomes leader on a stop-Brown ticket they will have the same problems John Major had. Once elected, they have served their purpose. Then what?
66. The minister was definately a man as Robinson said that ‘he’ wanted to be quoted.
75 - Icarus, I believe your mob are going to get a right stuffing at the weekend!
82. The Thatcherite PDs in Ireland have a vacancy. Perhaps Alan should apply?
There cannot be 2 Labour parties. One must go.
A Darwinian stuggle must now take place. Labour will come out of it healthier, stronger and better.
Britain depends on it.
Clarke attacks Brown again in tomorrow’s Torygraph saying GB has psychological issue to address. He’s a character assassination.
Who is Clarke doing the job for?
87 - Andrea, Where did you get that report? Is there a link?
If at once you don’t succeed, try, try and try again…
88. John, I see talking about it on SkyNEws. But it’s also on Iain Dale’s blog.
He makes all that Clare Short has said about Blair looking like a nice things. He really savages Brown.
He finishes his piece with “I think it is unlikely I will go for the leadership, but I still have a career in politics.”
Well, he should remember that the Libdems are breathing on his neck, so maybe he shouldn’t be so sure.
I think it will be Gordon Brown, unless there is a political earthquake.
Mike - it is quite impossible to envisage John Hutton as leader. Perhaps it could be argued that John Major was as unlikely. But a poll of MPs only can swing rather more than a Labour members and trade unionists poll. (And Hutton absolutely doesn’t have Cameron-like charisma, to win over a large electorate).
Hutton would simply have no campaign issues for the more Blairite than Blair platform - ‘more education bill style reform; more private involvement in public services’ … Alan Milburn winning an election of Labour members is equally absurd - his 2005 campaign was not our finest hour.
… Blair’s popularity including mixing quite progressive arguments (Europe, being quite open to liberals and others, the causes of crime, a fresh approach to politics) with the more right-wing rhetoric of tough choices, respect, etc, which has got much stronger since 2003-5.
Alan Johnson will likely prove too canny to run, and has a great shot as deputy. While he could choose to define himself in various ways, he would be damaged with Labour members if viewed as a candidate of the Alan Milburn & Stephen Byers camp.
Reid, like Brown, is Scottish. His tabloid appeal puts off Labour members (thougn not necessarily voters) of the Guardian reading kind.
So I think Reid most likely to run. But I doubt it will be particularly close.
90 - Thanks. And with one click of the mouse….
…and wow. Phew, what a scorcher. Fun, fun, fun
93. I think I can put my not love for the Libdems apart and rooting for a nice Yellow gain in Norwich South
94 - Hmm, Tories for Chuckles, methinks
Unless of course, the admirable Councillor Little is re-standing.
95. Maybe someone will ask the Chief Whip to issue of her yellow card to Clarke…or do they work just for Alan Simpson?
94. I’m with Andrea. I used to like clarke but he has chosen the Claire Short route. It’s too early to say whether Brown is going to end up hero or zero these next few weeks. As the cloud lifts there are signs that things are starting to look good again. Very positive on Newsnight from those that matter. The dissidents, Field , Clarke and Milburn look like a pack of dead donkeys. Always a good sign.
Kampner made a good point about Cameron imitating Blair when the cpountry’s mood might well be looking for a different type of leader.
97. Roger, I think he’s making lots of damage if Brown makes it in the end. The tories will use his quotes again and again and, well, you can’t criticize them for doing so. And they can make Clarke look like a respectable person (so his quotes gain “weight”), whilst it was easier to dismiss Clare Short as a “mad” woman.
Maybe he genuinely believes that Brown would drive the country to rack and ruin? If so, and he’s right, then he’s doing us all a favour.
Mr Andrea re 2007 shocks. Ok you’re right re Govan. How this for you unlikely in the extreme but if Blair there still or even close to it, how about Rhodri’s going in Cardiff West? It almost certainly won’t happen because firstly all the opposition bunched relatively close so no one clear challenger Their eyes are also elsewhere in the City, the Tories in the North naturally, the Libs in the South where they seem to be following the same strategy for Cardiff Central building an assembly platform for the Westminster seat. And yet Wales is in a very bolshy mood, Cardiff even more than the rest of Wales. If things are really bad for Labour, and if someone say the Libs can pull off the old trick of the “two horse” race for the anti Labour vote to coalesce around maybe… Not really viable perhaps, but what are your tips. Thanks.
99. Even Clare Short probably genuinely believes in what she says.
101 - I had a proviso in there Andrea!
This could all have been avoided if Blair had said “I’ll serve a full term” and backed it up with an Act of Parliament saying that if HM’s Prime Minister resigned there must be a general election within two months. Perhaps some clauses to cover minority administrations or when a State of War existed (a declared war not a UN or coalition of willing action). That would raise the stakes.
Alex. I think you could make a case that any politician / leader would drive the country to rack and ruin. I think given Clarke’s recent record you could probably take his judgement with a pinch of salt though.
The point is that whatever Clarke might think he ought to realize that doing a character assasination in two Tory newspapers finishes his career in the Labour party and is hardly intended to be for the benefit of his party. It is simple score settling from an obviously petty man. What’s more these pin prick attacks will eventually do Brown good if he doesn’t rise to the bait.
100. Today, to be fair, I don’t really know! I just said that considering the majority and the bad press got by the sitting MSP, a SNP gain in Govan won’t be so shocking.
What’s more these pin prick attacks will eventually do Brown good if he doesn’t rise to the bait.
Fat chance
I loved the way Clarke couched his interview as if he were trying to be constructive
108 - Alex, Any reasonable person would clearly believe that Clarke IS being constructive
108. In the end, he almost make the left wing rebels looking like the most constructive people on earth.
Ok, I should accept Clarke’s being critical, because I’ve always defended the rebels, but at least they say “Gordon and Tony policies are rubbish” and not “Gordon and Tony are mad” (ok, IIRC BMA almost said it)
Dobbo said of Milburn tonight ‘When I say something I let people know it is me who’s saying it. He goes briefing jounalists behind everyones back telling them not to use his name……”
That’s what I call a character assasination!
So what do you think the public reaction of Cabinet ministers will be to this new Clarke’s piece?
Who will be the first MPs to support him or attack him (Glenda Jackson doesn’t count. Her video interview is pre-recorded. She must do another one to count)?
111 - Roger, I saw that too. Isn’t it just wonderful? Rejoice!
lol- Opik and Norris having some fun on the SkyNews paper review
Do you think Clarke’s about to defect or something?
115. Oh, well, Glenda thinks him and all Blairites want Cameron to succeed in Downing Street, but she’s as “erratic” as Clare Short. So her opinion doesn’t really count.
OT. I can’t access to almost all blogs I usually look at…is it just me? Or is some server down?
JohnO. I suppose it’s when he added “….and he ruined the health Service” that you popped the champagne!
117 - temporary blip, I think, Andrera. Mine’s working just fine anyway
118 - Er, unlike your magnificent self, old thing, I have no private health insurance, and only use the NHS. Better luck next time.
You should try it! No nasty queues…..
So you missed Dobbo’s final broadside? Talk about unintended consequences!
115.Clarke defect? Even the Lib/Dems would think twice
Roger, was Dobbo wearing a tie? Last time I saw him, he was tieles…never a good sign!
Tieless. Doing his bit for the New Tory Party
What about the “close Blair ally” who was ‘quoted’ on the BBC as saying that Brown was “spectacularly unsuited to the job”?
121 - Guess so - wank has its privileges as Woy might have said,
Milburn almost certainly.
Dobbo did look odd without a tie now you mention it. Maybe hinting?
124. Hasn’t Dobbo just outed him?
123. And with the first button unbuttoned?
Charles Kennedy and David Cameron are each 500-1 to lead the Labour party next.
128. Also at 550-1 are Cherie Blair, Peter Tatchell and Gorgeous George. Tracy Temple is just at 1000-1
127. Thankfully yes. Just one button. Even Dobbo can’t get away with the Greek waiter look quite yet.
Holy good god ,what an interview with Clarke in newspaper tomorrow…even worse than yesterdays..
130. Roger, so it’s his new style….not sure if I should be thankfully.
At least the last time I saw Clare on TV she was wearing a scarf.
Claire looked like she’s been making an effort lately. Pink silk fold around scarves and wide matching belts. The new boyfriend you revealed yesterday probably explains it. I saw her yesterday though and she’d gone back to the old stuff. Suits her personality better!
133 - “Pink silk fold around scarves and wide matching belts”.
Roger, How extraordinary: exactly matches my mental image of you on location. “Quiet, darlings, action, shoot….”
Re the “fuc*ing…” quote by a cabinet minister
Tomorrow’s Guardaian says that John Reid was on holiday in France “until last night” (which I suppose they mean Friday night). So maybe he wasn’t the one who told that to Robinson.
Brown started the putsch let him reap the whirlwind.
The sad thing is the crown was his.
For the sake of three months, he has risked the pot.
A very poor card player.
But sad for the people, who I believe he has tried to enhance,the hard working poor.
I have often thought along the same lines as Mike’s analysis. The one to watch is Miliband although I don’t like his thick hair.
O/T I have just received a DVD posted to me from the Church of Scientology and a letter saying they would like to meet with me. Is that something to worry about?
Some quality character assassinations going on, I almost wish I wasn’t off to St Andrews in an hour’s time to see something equally bloody and unpleasant occur to our defence so that I could sit in front of Sky News and watch all the fun…
138. What’s your take on our three kids so far (Muamba, Larsson and Bendtner)? They appear to be doing quite well.
Thanks to whoever posted Lord Bonkers’ thoughts here. He thinks it was “A Terribly Good Idea”.
I agree with Mike, although have no idea who could get the nod. Common sense must prevail and Brown would clearly be the worst labour leader since Michael Foot. They’d have no chance in the election.
First time poster, long time lurker etc…
86. Agree entirely. Except more than one might go.
It would be very interesting to see the odds that bookies would offer on Brown /not/ being PM after the next general election. I agree with Mike’s analysis on Brown’s temper, but he might make it anyway as the party would likely not accept a Blair mk II (boding well for Johnson). In that case a divided Labour would be on to a loser at the next election. Anything more than evens would be very tempting.
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