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Mori poll sensation – Labour 1% ahead!

September 14th, 2006

    But is the firm embarrassed by its own results?

After being behind the Tories in 26 consecutive public polls there’s news this afternoon of a Mori poll taken at the start of the month which has Tony Blair’s party back into the lead. The top line figures with comparisons on the last Mori poll in July are: CON 35%(-1): LAB 36% (+4): LD 19% (-5).

The fieldwork was carried out from August 31st to September 6th and so only those spoken to in the final couple of days would have been aware of the then exploding Labour leadership crisis. What is odd is that a Populus survey that took place after the start of the Mori fieldwork and finished on the the day before it ended found that the Tories were 4% ahead. Since then there has been a YouGov poll showing an 8% Tory lead.

    Given that it is such a sensational result it is extraordinary that the findings have been held up until this afternoon before being published. Even Mori’s commentary does not refer to the party share figures. It is almost as if the pollster is embarrassed by them.

The headline figures relate to only to those saying they “were certain to vote”. Of all respondents in the survey the figures were even more sensational – CON 30%: LAB 38%: LD 22%.

As I always state when Mori polls come out the firm does not use past vote weighting or a party identifier to ensure that its samples are politically representative and it has a reputation for extreme fluctuations.

The poll does not seem to have had any impact on the General Election betting markets where the Tories remain firm favourites to win most seats.

Mike Smithson






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