Sean Fear’s local election commentary
September 30th, 2006
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Has Election Night Special Had its Day?
One of my pet hates is the BBC’s Election Night Special. It’s not too bad for General Elections, but their coverage of local elections is woeful. One spends hours watching talking heads, trying to spin the results on behalf of their respective political parties, and all piously agreeing with each other about how dreadful the British National Party is. Amid all this verbiage, one then gets about ten minutes of Professor Anthony King, or someone equally well-qualified, giving some worthwhile analysis of the results.
The absolute low point, in my view, was the local election coverage of 2003. The commentators had decided from the outset, that it was a very poor night for the Conservatives, who in fact, gained nearly 600 seats. Every so often, a little blue symbol would flash up on the screen saying “Conservative gain”, yet still the view from the Studio was that this was a bad night for the Conservatives. It was truly surreal. I actually felt sorry for Theresa May (not something you’ll hear me say often), who kept trying to draw attention to the fact that the Conservatives were actually performing rather well.
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This is where Political Betting really comes into its own. In my opinion, its coverage of the local election results, in the early hours of May 5th this year, was vastly superior to anything appearing on the BBC programme.
Lots of posters were standing in local elections, or working for the political parties, and were able to post up to the minute information on this blog, well before it reached the BBC. While political activists all had their slant on the results, the level of objectivity on this site was far superior to anything I saw on the BBC programme. Overall, I must have spent about three hours coming back repeatedly to Political Betting, and other websites (and to be fair, the BBC website was very good) , and about 30 minutes watching the BBC programme. I consider that time was well spent.
Election night programmes are of interest only to political anoraks. Nonetheless, I’ve no doubt that most political anoraks far prefer objective coverage of the results, to endless spin, and unless the BBC can provide that, Election Night Special is doomed.
Thursday night saw some curious results. Outside Scotland, the Labour vote held up pretty well overall, confirming today’s Yougov poll:-
Gateshead MBC, Dunston & Wear: Labour 694, Lib Dem 269, BNP 226, Conservative 76. Labour Hold.
North Tyneside MBC, Benton. Conservative 1,359, Labour 1,191, Lib Dem, 210. Conservative hold.
East Hants DC, Whitehill Deadwater: Lib Dem 214, Conservative 93, Labour 24. Lib Dem hold
Rossendale DC, Cribden. Labour 391, Lib Dem 312, Conservative 186, BNP 89. Labour gain from Lib Dem. For some reason, the Lib Dems didn’t field a candidate when this seat was last contested in 2004, and it was won by the Conservatives. It is still a good result for Labour though, because the last time all three parties fought the seat, in 2003, they won about a third of the vote each, and the Lib Dems narrowly won. The Conservative vote was well down on 2003.
Nottinghamshire CC, East Mansfield. Labour 1,228, Conservative 628, Independent 620, Lib Dem 544, Green 217. Labour hold. Another strong performance from Labour, whose vote share was up 6%, compared to 2005.
Fife SUA, Monkinch and Woodside: SNP 892, Labour 388, Lib Dem 257, Conservative 39, Independent 29. SNP gain from Labour. A truly terrible result for Labour, who suffered a swing of 30% against them, and continues a run of poor results in Scotland.
Blackburn with Darwen UA, East Rural. Independent 209, Conservative 201, England First 99, Lib Dem 91, BNP 70. Independent gain from Conservative. At first sight, it is astonishing that the Conservatives could lose a seat where they won 94% of the vote in May. However, the successful Independent is in fact a Conservative, and the daughter of the previous councillor. In reality it remains a safe Conservative seat – so safe that the Conservatives can run candidates against each other.
It also demonstrates, like Bridge in Redbridge, that far right candidates can poll strongly in Conservative, as well as Labour wards (23% went for the BNP and England First).
Wrexham UA: Conservative 413, Lib Dem 378, Labour 251. Conservative gain from Indpendent. A very strong performance from the Conservatives.
Sean Fear is a London Tory activist
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Election Night Special and its ilk are likely to die if we move to counting the following day, rather than overnight.
Re Local election nights.
Various politicians trying to spin the results is funny and annoying at the same time.
This year there was an obsession about the tories not having a seat in Manchester
1. As long as they still cover the count, declarations and all, I’m ok with a “the day after the election” coverage.
Actually I would be able to enjoy it better because I wouldn’t be half asleep (last year I probably slept less than 2 hours before getting up to go to uni…and I almost fell asleep there)
3 - You young people just have no stamina
4. On the GE night, I continued to say “let’s wait for Bethnal Green”, then “let’s wait for Cambridge”, then “ok, but let’s wait for Falmouth”…then at 5.30 UK time when Candy Atherton’s demise was declared, I decided to go to bed…and I had to take the train at 8.
5 - But dreaming of Peterborough and Reading East must have been worth it.
BTW Isn’t the BNP dreadful? Or is Mr. Fear even more, er, ‘radical’ in his views than even I had given, er, ‘credit’?
You have missed out the Labour votes (75 if I remember correctly) from the Blackburn result.
I am reminded of the 1992 General Election in which the BBC faithfully believed in the accuracy of the exit poll (applying to the not-yet-declared results) instead of using the already-declared results as a guide to predict the not-yet-declared results. Hence the amusing sight of Malcolm Rifkind being asked to comment on the poor results for the Conservative Party in Scotland (the exit poll predicted heavy losses) when the two results so far from Scotland at the time had been a Conservative gain and a hold of a marginal.
Many thanks for the write up. DO we know whay the Conservative beat the Conservative in Blackburn and Derwent? Also, why did she have to stand as an independent? Is there some in fighting there?
pedant time: The ward in Fife is “Markinch and Woodside East”
6. Don’t worry, I was up for the Venerable Helen’s defeat in Peterborough.
I went to bed before Reading East…I saw the result when I woke up.
You can’t rely on early predictions on election night…at the beginning of the night you usually always get some weird rumour…then you’ve unreliable people like Bob Marshall-Andrews
RE 7, JohnLoony, Were the BBC that dense on that election night? Must have made very amusing watching. I had to work that morning, (At 4 AM) so did not watch it.
10. unfortunatley I missed the venerable Helens result falling asleep infornt of the tv and spilling my Scotch.
The 2003 Election Night programme was so perverse as to be enjoyable. I agree almost entirely about the General election coverage but would question how objective Prof. King really is. After weeks of spinning his poll findings against the Cons. he seemed to me to be bewildered and somewhat upset as the Tory gains mounted during the night and the predicted massive Lab majority failed to materialise. Just a feeling - willing to be corrected on this.
11. S Penketh… the VH in the moment of defeat:
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41122000/jpg/_41122965_helenclark203.jpg
However it’s probably good that you’ve missed her….looking at her in the middle of the night can be difficult….
My main complaint aboput the BBC’s local election coverage is that they insist on waiting for all the results from an Authority to be declared so that they can announce that “Barchester has gone to NOC” or whatever. We all know that results are being declared all the time, and the broadcasters ought to do a better job in bringinmg us the news that is available, rather than pontificating on their own exit polls and talking to party political placemen.
It was a few years ago now, but I remember seeing Simon Hughes being paged with suitable results which he then regaled to the rest of the Panel (”I’m told we have just won Little Twittering from the Conservatives with a 15% vswing”). In fact, in his own way, he was broadcasting more news than the BBC.
Does anybody know the date of the Elderslie by-election in Renfrewshire? Looks pretty solid Labour. Mind you, so did Markinch.
Elderslie ward
Renfrewshire Council
Result 1 May 2003
1. Lab 59%
2. SNP 23%
3. Con 10%
4. LD 8%
Interesting interview on BBC News 24 with Andrew Neil interviewing Oliver Letwin. he asked why all Cameron’s kitchen cabinet who had either been to Eton or St Paul’s? He asked why Letwin and the others didn’t any longer believe in selection? Followed by the obvious question why do you then send your children to Eton?
From the other thread. Cameron is one naff idea away from being ridiculed. He must know that his web cam exercise will be a satirists dream. More so than his chauffeur driven shoes. Labour have the best ad men in the business in their corner and they are being given far too much material.
RE 14, Andrea, That is not very nice to look at any time of day
re 13. I agree - the 2003 local election result programme was a classic. There’d been what appeared to be the start of a concerted Brown-style “rolling resignation” process going on with Crispin Blunt resigning is front bench job just as polls closed. All this aimed, of course, at poor IDS - who I met on Wednesday while popping into have lunch with Tim Montgomerie of CONHome.
Everything, including Blunt’s resignation, had been predicated on a Tory srubbing. All the interviews were geared up that way and nobody could quite believe it when the results contradicted what had been the point of the producer.
That night I think the Tories won more than 600 seats and I won a lot on Betfair.
15.”It was a few years ago now, but I remember seeing Simon Hughes being paged with suitable results which he then regaled to the rest of the Panel (”I’m told we have just won Little Twittering from the Conservatives with a 15% vswing”).”
This year Lord Razzall popped up on Sky at the beginning of the night to say the Libdems had won Southwark…it wasn’t true in the end.
Andrea. Your chum from Rutland was on ‘Any Questions’ to-day. I have to say he was strangely pompous but you might want to listen to it. I’m probably not a good judge anyway as I just see him as an MP!
Anyone feeling nostalgic about 2003 might want to relive the quiet man turning up the volume: http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsa/n5ctrl/events03/uk_pol/cons/party_conf/ids_smil.ram
Can Cameron do better than that??
23,Classic !:lol:
(My all-time favourite remains David Steel’s ending his 1981 Liberal address by advising ‘My fellow Liberals,go back to your towns-and prepare for government)
23 constituencies not towns if I remember correctly.
24,I believe you are right,much obliged
Don’t forget by the way. Friday from 9.00am to 8.50pm BBC Parliament is replaying Election 1983
Bumped into Andrew Smith this morning leafleting in Oxford. Thoroughly nice chap, and on a constituency charm offensive.
Re; local elections- local democracy is an irrelevance . Local politicians have such little autonomy, except on the most menial issues. Even on the areas within their sphere of accountability they are often bullied by banal and mediocre local government officialdom who do what they want regardless.
When LD’s talk of localism my toes curl- local democracy and local government is populated by the most underwhelming group of individuals one could ever meet- akin to going to union meetings.
As much as I wouldn’t want my health service managed by doctors (another stupid Lib Dem idea), I wouldn’t want local councillors and local government having a big say on my local life.
7. “I am reminded of the 1992 General Election in which the BBC faithfully believed in the accuracy of the exit poll” I remember staying up (before kids came along!) to watch the coverage. The whole BBC election night script was shredded as the results came in.
16. thanks Andrea
matt classic
not as bad a speech as i remembered in all honesty so far at least
22. What a load of dorks! Every time he opened his mouth they gave him a standing ovation! He was awful but he obviously gauged his audience perfectly
28,I remember that night will hideous clarity-when Basildon declared,and stayed Tory,I actually went white with horror!
27 - Ladeees An Gendllemen, In the Red Corner we ‘ave the Magnificient Tyson, weighing in at 16 stone of his own self-regard, and in the Yellow Corner, Stephen ‘The Hunk of Headington’, weighing in two very Tall wheelie-bins.
And who said Oxford was the home of lost causes?
The only cheer that evening coming from my lips was when Chris Patten(actually quite a decent chap) lost Bath-I recall the BBC cut to a shot of Ken Clarke covering his face in disbelief-the audience at Bath bayed like a football crowd,and I must confess to feeling half-sorry for Patten,he looked close to tears.(By the end of the evening,I was beyond tears,or any other emotion come to that)
33 Are no Tories left in Oxford?;)
35
Proves my point. And who on earth would want to represent Tyson?
re 7, 28
I was lying in my bath listening to the radio election service in May, 1979 when the first result came in from London, from a constituency where they didn’t have their microphones - ie. the result was just on paper. The expert pollster said - “this must be a mistake. If this were true the Conservatives would have a large majority”. I wish I could remember who it was.
32 Patrick - Conversely the smile on David Amess’ face on stage waiting for the declaration brought a different emotion to me. However, given that we may have been better not to have won in 1992 (black Wednesday & all that followed), maybe our respective emotions should have been switched?
36,I’m sure a good-old fashioned Labour bruiser like Dennis Skinner ( to whom I extend well wishes after his recent illness) would welcome Tyson to Bolsover!
38,A very good point-I would build on what you say in stating a couple of middle-aged Tory mates of mine (I do not believe in letting politics come between friendship) actually wish the Tories had lost narrowly in 1992,and ,as likely as not,have regained power after one term of more full-blooded Neil Kinnock Labour govt-we shall never fully know.R.e Black Wednesday,I would imagine a (hypothetical)John Smith Chancellorshop may very well have engineered a managed,controlled re-alignment/devaluation against the German Mark,which as I recall,ruled the ERM roost too far
If there are any Tories here who think a web cam of Tony Blair wandering around his kitchen with his children screaming around his feet would have been a good idea please go and see matron immediately. I’ve just seen Cameron.
I think I might have a good idea for his next stunt. All he needs are three Polynesian girls the Treorchy Male voice choir and a donkey wearing a Hawaiian skirt…….
41 I shudder to think how the donkey may be involved…
:lol:
Trying to get back on topic…..
Sean, you may have downplayed the significance of the Markinch by-election in Fife, especially in relation to the internal machinations of the Labour Party.
This election took place in the seat next door to Gordon Brown’s constituency, on the Thursday of Labour Party conference, with all the media exposure that that entails, and Labour lost what should have been a safe seat. With a swing of 30% away from them to the SNP. This could be an election of enormous significance.
Firstly - Gordon Brown’s personal vote has been reduced to nothing in what should be Brown’s ’stronghold’ areas. The question has to be asked, if Labour can’t win wards like Markinch with the prospect of Brown as PM, what kind of chance do they have elsewhere?
Secondly - given Labour’s worsening record in Scotland at the moment; YouGov have them second to the SNP, and with this 30% swing to them the SNP have now won 10 out of the 20 local by-elections in Scotland since the General Election; will this not put the pressure on Blair to go before, and not after the Scottish and Welsh elections on May 3rd?
If the SNP can win half the local elections in the last year, and are ahead in the polls in Scotland, how much longer will it be until Labour begin to notice the negative impact of Blair and the lack of impact of Brown in what is his own backyard, and what will it take to act to rectify this situation?
Agree with Sean F about the consistently unhelpful local election night coverage (I wouldn’t know about GEs, having been tied up in counts every time for the last three). It was bad for the US elections too, though with more excuse - they kept explaining the electoral college system, for viewers who’d forgotten from the previous explanation 30 minutes earlier. I switched to watching CBS by podcast.
A colleague who helped in Mansfield tells me the other locally significant factor (apart from the swing to Labour since the GE) was the Tories beating the Independent into 3rd. Both main parties are pleased about this, as the Tories dislike the way the Indies have eaten the anti-Labour vote, and Labour thinks it’s easier to beat the Tories. North Notts is full of Independent councillors, but maybe not for much longer?
Sadly there will be a County by-election in Hucknall in due course - the Labour councillor there has just died.
44 - It doesn’t really matter with General Elections because the result is all significant. In other elections the spin is more important from a national significance, so media slant is key.
RE 40 atrick, There was a time in early 1992 when all the numbers indicated our economy ws in better shape than the Germans and there was more confidence in the pound. They put up their interest rates and we followed. I would not have, in fact I may have even dropped them a touch, just to say that the pound is stronger than the Mark. Oh well, there you go.
I think this coming Tory Party Conference might be even more difficult for Chameron than I had thought. Obviously the man is walking a tightrope strung between his traditional memebers and his “liberal” presentations to garner new votes.
I have only just picked up that, under his leadership, the Tory Party has lost no fewer than 6000 members….
http://www.liberalreview.com/blogs/apollo/ming_1_cameron_concedes_6000
How many posting from over-enthusiastic Tory students have we read here on PBC about the surge of new members? But if new members are indeed coming in, the sad truth for the Tories is that even more are leaving.
Quite clearly, Chameron´s strategy of “doing a Blair” because traditional supporters have nowhere else to go, is failing him. His tricks are not working. How long will it take him to fall off his tightrope?
46Many will always look back at the late80s/early 90s,and see an over-expansion of the economy in 1988 (the huge splurge of tax cuts,against a backdrop of base rates that had been dropped too far after the 1987 Stock Market crash,followed by the then government having to put the brakes on very harshly(base rate at 15% October 1989-October 1990-in my opinion,that recession could have been probably avoided(Snowflake no doubt could provide GDP figures for other G7 countries at the time)-many friends,in their 40s,who used to be Tory voters now say ‘Never again’-how they could be retrieved is a question David Cameron will have to start answering at Bournemouth this week-I await with interest
I seem to remember that the people who cheered most when (christian socialist) Chris Patten lost his seat were right wing Tories. I’ve always thought that Chris Patten was the first true 21st century British politician. Left Oxford with his PPE, didn’t know what he wanted to do(I should have been so lucky) but thought he would like to work in politics. So he wrote to the Tory/Labour/Liberal parties and asked if they had a job for him. The only one who bothered to reply were the Tories, so he went to them. Nice one Chris, obviously deeply committed!
47 - Hmmm I wonder how much the Liberal Democrat membership has increased or decreased since Minge became leader?
Sorry that should be Ming!
47. The point is that it is worth alienating 2 or even 3 traditional supporters if you can gain one floating voter in the centre.
The reason is that General Elections are won on seats, not total votes. The floating voter you gain is much more likely to be in a marginal seat whilst the traditional supporters you lose are in safe seats which you will win anyway.
The master of this strategy is of course Tony Blair. It explains how Labour has managed to get big majorities on such a small % of the vote.
Cameron knows this. His strategy is spot on.
ICM Poll in Sunday Mirror tommorow according to Sky News: Just one point between the parties: 36-35. Although very helpfully, Sky did not say who was ahead.
Sean, couldn’t agree more - the BBC General Election Night coverage is OK, but yes the local election coverage is absolute cack. It’s very rare that a politician of any major party will shed any light on what’s going on, it’s all spin which we’ve heard umpteen times before and everyone’s carefully toeing the party line.
The people who are really worth listening to, such as Anthony King, who actually have something insightful to say and can cut through all the guff, get far too little time. Thought the BBC coverage of the 2006 Locals, and Jeremy Vine’s graphics with the Ascent of Tory Man, Ming and his baton, very tiresome too - even their result maps were very poor.
The BBC coverage of USA 2004 was abysmal too - it was just people sitting around chatting, with far too little analysis of what was actually happening. I was watching the results come through on the official Florida website, and the early counties were looking very good for Bush. I had already “called” Florida for Bush about two hours before Peter Snow remarked “… and we hear Florida’s looking quite goood for Bush…”. Still, at least the BBC didn’t have the ignominy of Bob Worcester saying “I still think it’s going to be President Kerry”.
So most of the time the internet is way ahead of the TV networks - they just provide moving pictures - who needs them when you can do your own analysis just as well? Remember seeing Mark Mardell on Italian election night this year and was thinking that he had no more news than was publically available from the Interior Ministry.
With all the channels dedicated to sport, shopping, etc etc, why not a TV station dedicated to UK and international election results - hard results, analysis and the betting markets, with input from politicians kept to an absolute minimum - maybe like a political version of Bloomberg? Could Politicalbetting TV fill that gap?
Re US elections - if you want to know what’s going on and have Sky just watch NBC (on CNBC) or CNN or even Fox News if you can bare it. Between those 3 you will be fully up to date.
54.”Remember seeing Mark Mardell on Italian election night this year and was thinking that he had no more news than was publically available from the Interior Ministry.”
to be fair, it’s difficult to get more info about Italian elections about votes counted other than from Interior Ministry.
The only ones who can have more info are parties’ people because they’ve people at polling stations…TV can’t have journalists on all polling stations and so they’ve to rely on Interior Ministry website or on parties.
I recall that a communist MP anticipated that Prodi would have carried Campania at the Senate even when some polling stations were still unreported (because he called commies who were at those polling stations to ask what the result was)
I agree with most of the above - Fox News’ coverage of the 02 mid-terms was much, much better than that of the BBC or CNN. The last two named just offered a bunch of talking heads pontificating, while Fox had graphics, figures, and photos of the winners from every Congressional District and Senate seat up for election.
As for the BBC local election results coverage, Dimbleby made it even worse this year by exhibiting the waspish pomposity he displays on Question Time. Then there’s Jeremy Vine, the square who thinks he’s a dude. I was glad to switch over to Sky News.
The last honest comment a politician made about local election results was David Blunkett’s statement that he was ‘mortified’ by the 04 results.
Re 54, 55 and 57
54: If a bid is made for PoliticalBetting.TV, may I apply to analyse local by-elections, local elections, Westminster, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Canada and US elections
55: USA 2004 was very interesting for me (to an extent). Spolit for choice between BBC, Sky, ITV, NBC, CBS, Fox, CNN and MSNBC I opted to record BBC, Sky and ITV and watch CBS on Sky Active (only for the CBS signal to fail within 10 minutes of the programme launching)
57: Of all the local elections I have watched (1993 onwards), the best was locals 93 (to see David Dimbleby bemoan Peter Snow for his wrong (but accurate projection of a Con disaster at Election 1997) and the worst was Locals 2006 (for the presentation, the graphics and the emergency back up by News 24 when the power failed!)
I hate to disagree with this slanging match. Anyone who has ever covered local elections will now how difficult it is to make sense of what’s happening because the demands of havibg lots of outside broadcasts is beyond anything political anoraks understand. In a general election the rend is easier to detect, but at a local level various things are happening, not least the fact that independent and fringeparties muddy the water.
I have worked on numerous election nights trying to make sense of local results and I can assure it ain’t as easy as you lot think
it is.
There’s no doubt that if you were trying to do the job you would struggle to make sense of what’s hapening in the first couple of hours.
That may well be, cheltboy, but it doesn’t excuse the specific criticism of what happened in 2003 when the BBC clearly decided what the story was going to be before the results came in. The seemed to fit the story so they ran with it for the rest of the day. Even to the extent that they were still showing a Charles Kennedy interview at midday the next day which was conducted pretty early on and bore little relation to the actual results - Conservative gains across the board, and even the LibDems losing their flagship council.
*The early results seemed to fit the story
Apparently David Cameron has got his own blog now, because, he says “A young person would no more think of going to a public meeting than boiling an egg, so they do it on the internet.”
- I quote from here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5394766.stm
I really am getting old
- when did young people stop boiling eggs, and what do they do with them instead?
60. I agree there is a tendency to follow what is believed to be the story, but this is often led by instinct or an exit poll. As experience shows this is often a dodgy strategy.
But I stress again the trend on the night often takes longer to emerge than on a general election night, thus contradicting what so called experts believe the real story is.
“A young person would no more think of going to a public meeting than boiling an egg, so they do it on the internet.” Chameron, cited by Innocent….
I have never yet met a young person or anybody else who boiled an egg on the Internet. Chameron is increasingly batty…..
I tend to find people such as Anthony King the most annoying contributors. Supposedly impartial they are prey to their own pronouncements and try and make everything fit into their pre-conceived view. At least with the politicians you know they are spinning for their lives.
During my period as a Duty Editor with BBC News throughout 1970s I worked on many election night programmes and the emphasis then was on getting the results and giving a big picture of what was going on. The reaction side was secondary.
Now it seems the outcome is much less important and it’s all about reactions. The programmes also try to do too much with too many outside links which tend to dominate the production.
The problem is that the directors all want the equivalent of the 1997 Portillo moment which takes the attention off the results side.
Looking back over the comments feed here on PBC for May 4-5 and it was, as Sean described, a great resource.
Re. 58, Harry, I agree, the 93 results programme was excellent.
66.”Looking back over the comments feed here on PBC for May 4-5 and it was, as Sean described, a great resource. ”
Especially me confusing Brent with Brentwood
….but I blame Theresa May 
11. Re 1992: One specific bit which I remember is that the BBC was still predicting a hung parliament when about 200 or 300 results had already come in. The mathematics of the situation were such that the prediction could only have been correct if the as-yet-undeclared results were in line with the exit poll. In the long term, as the night progressed, the “projected” result gradually changed from a Labour minority to a Conservative minority to a tiny Conservative majority to a Conservative comfortable majority. If the results of the already-declared constituencies had been fed into the computer as a factor for predicting the unknown results, then the projection would have zoomed in on the true result more quickly, and with fluctuations going up and down, instead of the slow trend upwards which the BBC showed all night long.
Another BBC election night muck-up which springs to mind was the coverage of the European elections of 1989. The computer wasn’t even equipped to deal with the Green Party as an individual part separate from the “others”, so a long stream of constituency results all showed an increase in the “other” vote being +12%, +15% or +18% and a grey column on screen, with frequent verbal reminders from the presenter telling us that it was actually the Green vote which was going up.
43 - Jay Gee has provided some useful insights into the Markinch result, but I have a question. If I recall correctly, the SNP have a permanent office there (near the butcher’s shop, opposite the bowls shop - sorry, I cannot remember the name of the street). Does that mean that they are likely to have an above-average number of paid employees, and volunteers of above-average competence, who might have been able to help them get such a spectacular result?
Fair comment re BBC coverage. I get increasing infuriated by people like Rita Chakribhati - who’s insight at counts consists of trying to interview the most famous person she can find.
They need a few more Vincent Hanna’s…
One minor quibble - the Wrexham result looks better on paper for the Tories than in reality. Although it was previously an independent seat, the Tories didn’t stand against him. This was clearly a ‘condependent’ seat returning to its true colours.
any ideas who is slightly up in the icm poll, may seem a little accedemic, but we all know how these polls are trailed by the media, labour being a head will put just that little bit more pressure on.
I have to say I like the idea of politicalbetting.tv perhaps broadcast over the web, like 18 Doughty street, but the only problem is that most of the people who you would want fronting it will be there at counts. Still, could be good.
The opinion polls show that Labour is back.
Tony Blair will run for another term. After the monarchy has stood dosn, gracefully or otherwise, they can decide, he can stand as president.
We are right next to you Tony!
All very quiet on here tonight - I suspect everyone must be looking at WebCameron!
The washing up video is a bit of a laugh but the other 5 videos are much better. One includes a “preview” of his catchphrase for the next election - “stuck in the past or go for the future”
Mr Abroad at 62. It is a good point about eggs. What do young people do with eggs? My guess is, having watched ‘Celebrity Master Chef’ (that I was surprised our Dave wasn’t on) is that you poach it and serve it on oven cooked asparagus. Bit of a chore for breakfast.
Which brings me to the real reason I am posting. Something has been bothering me today. And of course it was Cammy. Well more specifically”webcameron” (shi*e name, by the way), not boiled eggs.
This is surely the lowest a party has ever sunk in this country. Not the idea. Everyone is trying to get in on the interweb campaigning. No, it was the fact that Dave is so obsessed with ‘communication’ that the only thing that him and his boys can think of opening their conference pitch with is that he has a camera in the kitchen. For f***’s sake! There are big issues in the world to deal with. They could make the theme of the conference global warming, the ‘war on terror’ or consumer culture and debt. We could hear a more indepth analysis of how a Conservative Government would ’share the proceeds of wealth’.
But no. Cameron’s big idea is watching him do the washing up. And I don’t even believe that. A two million pound pad and he doesn’t have a dishwasher (German engineering or Philippino labour)? I can’t express the contempt I feel for this approach to politics. It renders the competition of ideas, philosophies, democracy and government meaningless and turns the running of our country into a gameshow. Can some explain to me what the point of the NuTories is?
76. Have a look at the other 5 videos on WebCameron - they contain some interesting points.
And like he is going to connect with the kids with comments like ‘…not much baddinage’. I think that ‘webcameron’ (or ‘WC’ as surely they are already referring to it as) is a juicy turkey desperately waiting for Christmas day.
47 Sage I hate to go back over a dead story, but since you raised it, then I need to point something out to you. The story is flawed because it fails to remember one thing. Unfortunately the Conservative Party membership is predominatebly elderly, and they have a very sad habit of passing away. I went to three funerals last week. Some constituencies are doing better than others at bringing in new recruits, but clearly the membership is still dying faster than it is being replaced. I do think you’ll find that our leader has stemmed a tide that is endemic to all political parties. Has yours?
Now that’s what I get for taking a few days off posting - an out of date handle to my name!
Why Ben (80)? Have you come round to my way of thinking, and got cold feet about the lunatic that the Tories have put in charge?
Mike. I am sure you are a really good bloke. But WC is surely a joke. ‘I learnt lots in India, like how we can be nice to each other’. Do you think he had a couple of days in an Ashram? Maybe hung out with Sai Baba? I was waiting for him to tell us how him and Sammy had taken up yoga (’it really helped during the birthing process. Sammy Cammy is a serious believer that the perfect balance in life comes from Yoga and Yoghurt. It’s all the range in West London’).
81. No, of course I still believe David Cameron will be the next Conservative Prime Minister, it’s just I no longer believe there is any doubt that Labour will choose Gordon ‘pension stealer’ Brown as the next Prime Minister. And for the good of the country I hope John Reid is sacked. Especially as we’ll run out of prison places on Thursday.
PS. Is that deliberate, so that when Tony gets his collar felt by Sir Ian Blair he doesn’t go to jail because there isn’t space?
By the way, if anyone wants an election to chew on, go have a look at the Zambian Presidential one! The incumbant seems to have just won, but his main rival (who was leading right up until recently) says that votes were “lost” in his heartlands and promises “trouble” if the incumbant is declared winner without an investigation.
Talk about a powderkeg waiting to go off…..
You see Ben. You make sense briefly in their. Reid is obviously off his rocker. But you can’t expect the British public to vote for a man whose brainwave is to film himself?
Sorry I meant ‘in there’. Note to self. When indulging in satire check basic grammar.
News of the World has a video tape of Sheridan admitting he cheated his wife. It was recorded by George McNeilage, Sheridan’s best man. He claims he gave the tape to the NOTW just because he wants to clear the names of SSP members who testified against Sheridan
Dave Cameron is a poor impression of Tony Blair.
Like Panda Cola to Coca Cola.
Tony will stand for PM a 4th time. Mark my words. Then President of Europe, as prophecised.
See what happens when things get filmed, Andrea. Bodes well for ‘Webcameron’ if you ask me. I can see the headline. “Dave sees career go down the WC!”
Millibilly. When I lived abroad as a kid, we had a Coke imitation called ‘Dixie Cola’. It was so bad you had to actually add sugar to it. That is the league that Cammy is in.
87- Hillbilly. Europe is the geographic term for the area west of the Urals, northwest of Turkey and north of Africa. It includes the Countries of Iceland, Norway and much of Russia. It cannot have a president in the same way that North America cannot have a president.
89- I love DC. I would agree he is in a league all of his own. However it takes class to spot class so I guess you can’t tell he’s not in your beezer homes league…
90. Yes it could if a majority of the people in that area decided that they wanted one, or it was taken by force. Both are highly improbable, but your point is fundamentally wrong. I am sure the King of Mercia in 731AD may have said “Queen of England, impossible” (in Anglo Saxon of course).
92. I love DC. You say highly improbable so how is my point fundamentally wrong? It is typicall europhile stuff to always maintain that Europe and the EU are one and the same.
They will never be!
ICM poll in Sunday Mirror:
Con 36, Lab 35, LD 19
Sample 1,029, fieldwork 28 to 30 Sept.
Because, brains, you said ‘it cannot have a president’. It could under those circumstances described, much as they are unlikely to happen. You tried to be clever but you did not think it through(a habit?) See if you had left it in a more open way, (say ‘..did you mean the region from the Urals to Iceland…’) you may have had (rather witless) a point. Because you said what you did you set yourself to be proved wrong in rational debate.
95. I love DC. Maybe you should go for President of Antartica then? if whole continents are going to have presidents…
94. Hardly a surprise. How much coverage have Labour just had? Of Blair reminding people of the ‘achievements’ of Labour? Let’s see what it says in a week or two time. Once David Cameron has reminded voters of the achievements of Gordon Brown and Tony Blair and NuLabour.
1. 75p Pension increase
2. £5 billion pension theft
3. Prisons run out of space on Thursday
4. My local hospital sacked nearly 400 staff last Friday
5. Violent crime rising
6. Failure to condemn the disproportionate response from Israel
7. Rising unemployment despite unprecedented immigration
8. Chronic underfunding of Social Services by Central Government
9. The deliberate way the Treasury has increased Council Tax bills by failing to properly finance Local Government
10. Failing to back up our troops abroad - with overstretch and without proper equipment.
93 and 87: I also hate the insane evil morons who falsely inaccurately incorrectly try to pretend that “the EU” is the same thing as “Europe”, but that’s not what Millibilly did. Millibilly was projecting a possible future fantasy alternative parallel universe in which Tony Blair has followed a slightly different career path from the one which most people are currently expecting.
Totally bizarre by the end of this thread, very much like one of those parties where you know you should leave but you wait for a bit hoping that the mouthy idiot sounding off finally keels over and knocks himself unconscious.
Re. Cameron’s reference to ‘not much badinage’, I remember Major was mocked for his use of the word. As with his use of such quaint phrases as ‘peddling untruths’ and ‘unable to raise a snort’, it was considered yet more evidence that he’d learnt his English from some antiquated colonial phrasebook.
A political heavyweight beaten to the Leadership by a previously unknown, years of thwarted ambition down the pan and tipped to be a thorn in the New Leader’s side. Instead to everyone’s amazement he becomes one of the rocks of that leader and a foundation stone for a new conservative era. His name Willie Whitelaw. But the parallels to David Davis today is uncanny. Is David Davis becoming David Cameron’s “willie” or not.
70 - I’m sure you’re right re an SNP office in the area, but my understanding is that the candidate was the only member of full-time staff. That aside, the Lib Dems have offices in both neighbouring constituencies, while Labour have both an MP and MSP in the Fife Central seat, and all the staff associated with that.
I’m also pretty sure that the SNP did not have staff in place in all their 10 wins in the last 20 Scottish by-elections…..
A 30% swing in one election is freakish; winning half the local by-elections accross Scotland since the General Elections is a substantial and signifincant electoral trend.
Sean
I have only just seen your latest article. One minor point although Bridge ward in Redbridge is indeed now a relatively safe tory ward it has only become so recently due to some boundary changes. For many years it was a tory - labour marginal though one which the tories almost always won. The ward is split between what was strongly labour areas of (ex) council housing and areas of typical suburban semi detached housing which tend to be strongly tory. The current split is I would guess 35% ex council housing and 65% semis ( previously split was about 45% / 55% ). The BNP strength is almost certainly from the areas were Labour did well in the past ( almost identical to Hainault, Loughton and much of Barking & Dagenham ). So the parallel to the tory ward you mention may not be all that strong. My knowledge of the areas where the BNP do well in the Midlands in the North is quite small but in East London the BNP support comes mostly from ex Labour supporters not Tory.
I’m not betting and not a supporter of any party (just interested in politics) but this Sean Fear guy is right. Keep up the good work!