YouGov: Labour now level-pegging with the Tories
September 30th, 2006
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Lib Dems suffer most from Blair farewell conference boost
On Tuesday in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s extraordinary farewell speech I predicted here that this would “give the party a small but significant boost in the polls and … might even see Labour back into the lead..”
And so it has happened. A Yougov survey for the Telegraph that was mostly carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Blair speech has these shares this morning with comparisons on their last poll a week ago. CON 36(-1): LAB 36%(+3): LD16%(-2)..
There can be little doubt that the extensive and favourable coverage of the speech and the general display of unity at the Manchester conference has given Labour a much-needed polling boost. This is the first time since April that the Tories have not been in the lead in a poll with a politically weighted sample.
The main consolation for the Tories is that they only went down a point and the main hit seems to have been taken by the Lib Dems who have dropped to 16% - where they were at in May.
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Today’s changes almost directly parallel what happened after Labour’s conference a year ago. Then the Labour YouGov share went up three points to 40% with the Tories staying on 32% and the Lib Dems dropping from 21 to 20%.
One of the annual problems the Tories have got is that theirs is always the last in the autumn conference season so they almost always gather by the seaside with their relative position against Labour getting worse. They’ve also not been getting much of a look-in in the media over the past month which has been dominated by the Labour succession.
I think that there is a possibility that Labour could be back into the lead in the Populus Poll for the Times that should be out on Tuesday. Last year the pollster recorded the Labour lead going up from 2% to 10% in the poll taken immediarly after the Labour conference.
Even so this is a blow to David Cameron as he prepares for his first party annual gathering and there are some other polling details showing that perceptions of him have declined over the past nine months.
Mike Smithson
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well we are nearly mid term under a third term labour government. The tories have had a leader that has had an immense honeymoon from the pres and a labour party that nearly self destructed. Evens, i’ll take that, and when the tories take a slight lead after their conference as surley they will, i’ll still take that.
regardless of a few good polls at the moment, make no doubt the most importnat thing from the last week is the way in which the labour activists felt during and after conference, believe me when i say that 95% are fully commited to giving everthing towards getting a fourth term, as stupid as it sounds this determination could be what delivers labour a majority as opposed to a to a hung parliament. a LOT of members have felt down in the dumps since 2003, but i honestly believe that this week we found that little spark, and finding that, is far more valuable than this poll or any other poll for that matter. Mark my words, Labour are back.
red flag - it wont be much consilation when labour get another beating at the locals next year!
The real battle is joined next year when we see DC+new policies up against the new Labour leader. If as seems most likely, this is the dour, brooding, control freak, then I think it is very clear that the Tories will see a sustained and clear poll lead through to a GE victory.
This is still the phoney war. I’m happy enough with a small lead/level pegging whilst we keep our powder dry for the fight ahead.
One of the most interesting aspects of the YouGov poll is the increasing numbers (now majority) who now disassociate the current Tory party & leader from the Thatcher & Major-led party. This is arguably the most important thing that TB did with Labour in the early 90’s in making them electable again, and shows that the essential rebranding of the Conservatives is starting to embed.
I can’t see how this is much of a blow to DC, to be honest Mike. It’s surely expected that Labour would have got a boost. I think the important polls will be the ones after the Tory conference and comparing these with the polls before all the conferences to see how the conference season had changed the relative standings of the parties. All parties get a boost from conference. Labour did (+ the LibDems) and the Conservatives will too.
The only way in which it is a blow to DC is that Labour did not self-destruct at conference but I don’t think the chances of that were ever really very high.
I do largely agree with what you have written, Robin, but let us not deceive ourselves - this poll in and of itself is not particularly encouraging news for the Conservative Party (and is even worse for the Lib Dems). The question is; has the result been distorted by transitory effects of positive media cover emanating from the Labour Conference in Manchester, or is there a more substantial shift back to the government taking place beneath the surface?
If, as I am inclined to believe, it is indeed the former then the Conservatives will be back on top again by the end of next week in the wake of similar positive coverage of our own Party Conference. If otherwise, then the Cameron project may require some minor re-calibration.
In any case, the answer will become apparent soon enough.
Any chance he could re-calibrate us into the Conservative Party please?
Post of the week Tory Boy! I think you might have hit the nail on the head. Tory Labour and Lib Dem voters don’t want the same things, Despite what Lib Dems tell us people still see themselves as left right and center and Cameron is posing as though on the center left. Labour supporters get most angry with Blair when he starts behaving like a Tory which is why so many Labour voters voted Lib Dem last time or stayed at home
If Camerons public image changes from “breath of fresh air” to “vaccuous toff” he will struggle to recover the lustre.
The Cons should get a big boost this week. Difficult to see how they can go wrong.
From Anthony King’s article;
Even worse in some ways is another finding set out in the same section of the chart. It might have been supposed that the personable Mr Cameron would have a broader appeal than his old-fashioned and as yet unreconstructed party. But not so. Asked which they find more attractive, Mr Cameron or his party as a whole, and 20 per cent reply the Tory party and only 18 per cent Mr Cameron. A decisive 55 per cent admit they do not find either of them appealing.
9. They could try to say nothing for a whole week, which is what they will try and do, but now looks like everyone (new voters and old tories)want them to do. When Cameron was elected I argued strongly that they could not sustain having no policies for 2 years. That looks like it is true.
Tim’s analysis (8) hits the nail on the head.
One has to wonder though what on earth Cameron was thinking with the various chairpeople of some his policy commissions. Put Michael Forsyth and John Redwood in charge of tax policy and “economic competitiveness” and it’s hardly surprising that they will come up with proposals to slash taxes. Put Redwood in charge of public services, for example, and he might have come up with some interesting ideas which could be dismissed if necessary. But providing 2 or 3 tax commissions recommending big tax cuts, presumably with some sort of evidence base behind them, and it’s like a red rag to a bull for Tory activists.
Unless the idea was to appoint a load of right wing idealogues specifically so their tax cutting proposals could be dismissed as… the ramblings of a bunch of right wing idealogues.
The comments on the thread are a reasonable range of possible interpretations of what is after all just a single poll, but I agree with roger that the most siginficant finding is perhaps that 55% say they find both DC and the Conservatives unattractive.
A consequence of this underlying fact is that each poll is driven largely by whether the Government has annoyed people recently. When we have, we lose votes to the LibDems. When we haven’t, we get them back. The Tories bob around in the 35-39% range, which is a few % more than last year but not a lot after nearly a year of sustained media encouragement. Meanwhile, Labour morale is, as redflag says, definitely recovering since a low around last Christmas.
Paul Lloyd is right that this reflects a deliberate decision by Cameron to play it long, and produce scintillating policies at the end of next year. This strategy may prove right, but it certainly takes good nerves, since there is no guarantee that each new policy will have an unproblematic birth: note, for instance, the Telegraph’s report that the chair of the group on ID cards (and a couple of other key issues too, notably tax) disagrees with Cameron on the issue.
The Tory conference may indeed produce a return to a Tory lead
of the 4-5% type we’ve got accustomed to, but on current form they are not yet on track to win. It will take around a year to be make any sort of confident predictions for next time, but I’m reasonably optimistic at the moment.
Its is a strange fact, that political activists always draw some comfort from polls that bring them bad news. It is also a strange fact that they then start to weave scenarios, in which their party always ends up in an advantageous position. The truth of this poll is simple, despite enormous cock ups, a really bad press, the Labour vote is holding up remarkably well. The Conservative vote is ok, the Libdem vote a little on the weak side. The flitting 5% of the electorate that seem to be heavily influenced by news events has moved back to Labour, whether this is temporary or not (probably is) we don’t yet know.
Possibly Alex - I like the Machevelian thought.
He’s obviously been looking for ‘Clause 4′ punch up with the right wing of the party from the outset to underscore the seriousness of his ‘new’ approach, but thus far no-one has bitten.
It will be interesting to see what happens if and when that time comes.
Certaining if we’re flying in the polls and DC has the sun and wind at his back it would tactically be a good time to do so.
If we’re level or even behind …………………………….
As we approach the Conservative party conference, I think we should remember the conferences in the bad old days.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFlNyqeeifA
A classic Not the Nine O’Clock News Sketch, that even the most diehard Tories must chuckle at. Anybody likely to make a speech like that this year? No, I don’t think so.
How will GB cope with extra exposure? The more you look at his performance, the poorer he looks as chancellor, but the better he looks as a politician.
If he had PM, he would have set ‘targets’ for the chancellor. One would be his ‘added value’, ie how much better state the finances were at the end of his tenure, compared with the start. In 1997, there was a public sector debt repayment (remember that?). Now we have the lagest budget deficit in history, if you take into account the off-balance sheet items (mostly PFI). On that single measure, he is the worst chancellor ever. Any of that stick to GB? No. (It is accepted that that is only one measure, and the least favourable to him).
He boasts of his record on interest rates. The performance here is much more mixed than he makes it sound. ‘Real’ interest rates (the difference between the rate of interest and the rate of inflation) is actually higher than it was for most of the previous 18 years. But GB has made it seem like a one-way triumph.
Inflation on his watch has been under control. No ifs and buts. Good. How’s it happened? The fall in the prices of manufactured goods sourced from China is half the answer. Most of the rest is accounted for by the absence of wage pressures due to immigration (not an unalloyed blessing). Neither reason is strictly a personal success for the GB. But he takes full credit for the low inflation figure.
GB’s record as chancellor is said to be good. The gap between the actual and the perceived record is down to his political skill and acumen. He is a very fine politician.
Three You Gov polls in the space of
Nick 14. I agree.
Part of the problem for the Tories is that they made leaders themselves as the agenda. And to an extent we (and the media especially) have all started dancing to their tune on that. But the agenda will start to shift (has already) to the way we are governed, our priorities as a country and as a world. Cameron and the Conservatives have had little impact on that aspect whatsoever, other than some vague aspirations.
At the end of the day you can only serve a rocket salad for so long before people start wondering when the meat course is going to turn up.
As I was saying, three You Gov polls in the space of a week.
24th Sept: Con 37 Lab 33 Lib Dem 18
25th Sept: Con 38 Lab 31 Lib Dem 18
30th Sept: Con 36 Lab 36 Lib Dem 16
Change: Con -1 Lab +3 Lib Dem -2
Comments?
I wonder whether one aspect of the “policy-lite” strategy is that the Tories do not know the nature of what they will be facing in a year’s time. There’s no point in announcing attractive ideas now only to see then swept up by the new Brown government, if that is indeed what happens.
This is a big poker game - let NuLab2 reveal its hand first and then they can respond to that.
The principle purpose of policy, of course, is that it is a means by which you differentiate yourself from your opponents and at the moment the Tories have little idea about what Nulab2 will be putting forward.
We are in a very unusual situation at the moment and it’s hard to draw firm conclusions about anything.
The boost in Labour support in this poll is ephemeral and typical of polls that appear in the conference season . Do we really think that Labour support is back to the level it was at the last GE ? Was there any sign that this is the case in Thursday’s council byelections ? The answer is No . Apart from the abysmal performance in the Scottish one , the others showed a marginal improvement from Labour’s position in the May locals but still well below a level of support at GE levels .
What all the polls and council elections tell us is that voters as a whole are not enthusiastic about any of the parties at the moment and their future behaviour is unpredictable .
18 - Whatever spin you put on it people consider Gordon a successful Chancellor because he has been one. When was the last time a Chancellor achieved more than 9 years of economic growth without pause. Yes he has made mistakes and yes there are grounds to criticise him on but the fundamentals that affect people’s lives have been good. Yes he has arguably been lucky but at least he has made no major macro-economic mistake which has led to recession - more than can be said for most post-war Chancellors. Unemployment is low. Employment is at record levels. Interest rates are low and stable. Inflation is low and stable. These are the things people care about. The danger for Gordon and Labour is that the public start to see this as ‘normal’ and don’t give the govt. any credit.
Just look around you David. Affluence is everywhere as are jobs. Just look around the cities.I suspect most people don’t judge the Chancellor by reading a text book which is why people rate him. Don’t you remember the days of repossession, no jobs and cardboard box cities?
Maybe the Conservatives have a mole in Gordon Brown’s head and have advance warning of the mass of new initiatives he is intending to launch in his first week as leader. So they’re just waiting until a week before he takes over to announce them all themselves
re 24 & 25. One of the dangers for GB is that people just assume that prosperity is the norm and don’t give him the credit. Last month ICM found that only 37% thought Brown had been responsible for Britain’s economic success. The no figure was 52%. See here.
If Cameron looks vacuous now it’ll get worse when Brown takes over. Brown is only about substance. If you look at the details of this poll what it points out is that the public are interested in substance not style.
27 - Exactly this was the point I was making in my last sentance. This is why perversely an economic downturn, if it was globally driven, may benefit Labour allowing them to argue that the public shouldn’t take a risk on the Tories and present themselves as a safe pair of hands.
23.” Do we really think that Labour support is back to the level it was at the last GE ? Was there any sign that this is the case in Thursday’s council byelections ? The answer is No . Apart from the abysmal performance in the Scottish one , the others showed a marginal improvement from Labour’s position in the May locals but still well below a level of support at GE levels .”
yes, apart the Mansfield by-election where Labour improved the 2005 result
re 28. Re Substance v Style - just check out last week’s ICM poll in the Guardian -
Things are very contradictory at the moment. My view is that there is a huge mood for change, 70& saying they wanted is as ICM reported, but the Tories have yet to demonstrate that they can provide it. It’s all to play for and only the very bold would bet on the outcome of the General Election.
The bad news for the Tories in this poll is:
a) Once again, Telegraph is happy to run heavily with an anti-Cameron line, and
b) Anthony King’s write up on the poll and the long term trend: “Almost every trend relating to the Tory party is either static or downwards. As the figures in the chart show, the proportion of voters thinking Mr Cameron “is proving a good leader” has fallen from 46 per cent in February, when he had been party leader for only a few weeks and was still relatively unknown, to only 35 per cent now.”
Labour have had a very, very good September. They have shown real maturity this month pulling back from the brink. Something the Tories and Lib Dems have never managed. I really think the dynamics of internal Labour politics are radically different to the other two parties, due to its journey post 9/4/92.
It also show how amazingly soft the Tory vote is at the moment. Cameron looks very beatable.
[32] And (on the website at least) that photograph of Cameron with the London Eye in the background is surely malicious, if the problem with him is indeed “all style, no substance”…
Has anyone seen the Guardian article about DC making a webcast of himself washing up in his kitchen with all his kids around him. Please God tell me what the hell this has to do with him sorting out this country??
So he is a Dad(so am I), he can wash up(so can anyone) he has to put up with disruptive kids(join the club mate) but so what???
He has none and I mean none of the worries working or middle class people have, money, bills, education, job security (he does not need to work as such)
Now is this all it takes to be a modern politician, the “look I can do normal stuff like you” in front of a camera and hope enough dopey housewives think “ahh what a lovely guy, he could probably run the country really well if he can do that”
If that all it takes brother then I’m in, I suppose any of us can be Prime Minister. Dave where are the policies, the action or even thoughts of what you are going to actually do if you take power.
All I know at the moment is you are rich, well educated, have kids, a floppy hairstyle and can wash up…well done just for that you can be PM my boy.
I am sure Rik, AH, DC and all the others will jump down my neck for this but even you guys must see that he is turning politics in to a kind of “Pimp my PM” that any half wit can understand but that’s because it says nothing, except “I’m nice normal Dave, what more do you want, your to thick to understand policy so here I am washing up”. Someone stop the world I really do need to get off.
22 -Mike, I think you have summed up the situation extremely well. I have argued for manymonths of theprudence of keeping our powder dry for the fioght ahead. In the meantime, Cameron is continuing with the important task of rebranding the Party - and there is evidence that this is working, and people are preapred to listen to Conservatives again. I find this on the doorstep.
It will of course be a nervewracking ride for most Tories over the next year or so. The danger is, as others have pointed out, that Labour can make the “style over substance” argument stick over DC’s “you can’t change a party in six months, and you wouldn’t believe me if I did” argument.
I can see nothing in the polls so far to suggest that DC+policy vs GB+record will not be a fight we can win.
[36] Robin Wiggs can see nothing in the polls so far to suggest that DC+policy vs GB+record will not be a fight we (Tories) can win - depends on the policies, doesn’t it? DC’s task is to find some that meet two perhaps conflicting criteria:
- can’t be branded as same old, same old by the other parties;
- don’t lead to significant numbers of activists (and donors) defecting or at least sitting on their hands and cheque books.
But the boy Dave’s gotta try, there’s no other show in town…
22″we are in a very unusual situation at the moment and it’s hard to draw firm conclusions about anything”.
Mike-We can draw conclusions, namely no matter how unpopular this government gets, its leaders gets, how tainted with power it becomes there is no public appetite to bring back the Tories.
Re-style them, re-package them, re-brand them- the Tories are still the Tories.
The real dilemma in this country is how do you get the centre right electable- i.e capable of sweeping through the north, our cities, Scotland, Wales- much as Blair did with Labour in the English heartlands? The Tories ain’t going to do it. Centre right strategists really need to think of something radical- re-branding the Tories a la Cameron does not wash, and will not work.
Don’t you just love the media, tried to find spilts at the Lib Dem conference, much the same at Manchester, now today trying to manage a spilt of tax cuts or no tax cuts at the Cons conference. As with Brighton and Manchester it will come to nothing.
Also the Daily Telegraph, if it keeps up its campaign against Cameron, will it tell its readers to very seriously consider voting Lib Dem, given the tax cut issue. Surely not!
17 - SBS, they’re not likely to make such a speech in public, at least …. but when you’ve the likes of Ann Winterton still in the fold, what does that tell you?
36-Robin Wiggs- when you have an old Etonian leading your party whose birth family have accumulated massive wealth over generations of privilege, and whose only role in life has to be a Tory policywonk, and PR spinmaster (through his connections) it is little wonder that the public do not see the substance. Why- there is no substance. Cameron is all style, privilege and fluff.
Actually I do hope that the Tory policy proposals that come out in the next 18 months are better than the most feeble,pathetic set of policies presented by the Tories in 2005- otherwise democratic thinking is really in trouble in this country.
39 - interstingly enough, the DT is read by a lot of more mature people, shall we say. The sort of people who are somewhat sceptical of youthful flimflam.
41 - Tyson, there is plenty of intereting political thinking going on at the moment. You just won’t find it represented in Conservative policy.
I don’t think the web cam in Cameron’s kitchen is necessarily a bad idea. It could be seen as modern and engaging but it could equally be seen as really naff. The problem for politicians doing this sort of thing is that it’s easily lampooned by opponents
35 - FWIW i doubt that have a severely disabled child is a picnic.
42 Tabman. I no longer subscribe to the “Daily Telegraph” after they refused to publish numerous of my letters on hanging suffragettes, Home Rule for Beaconsfield and my support for a military pact with the Tsar !
Jack W is 103.
17. SBS. Very funny!! That though is the Tory Party most people over 30 remember which is why poor old DC is banging his head on a glass ceiling!
Well it is not a good poll for us Conservatives, but then it is only one, and as Mike points out Labour seem to get a conference boost.
Does the polling evidence suggest that the Conservatives get a conference boost as well? I hope so.
Also does having the conference last help as we get the last word of the conference season? As in if we get a poll bounce as well does ours last longer?
45. But a lot easier if you’ve got piles of money to pay for support ordinary people could never afford.
I don’t think the point of webcameron is to show him washing up is it? It’s just another form of communicating with the public. People who may not switch on to any other form of political communication may log on to the webcam just to see what it’s all about, and presumably be impressed by him saying lots of sensible things on what ever is the topic of the day.
46 - I thought the good serfs of Beaconsfield were happy enough under the enlightened despotism of Baron Matlock
44 - Naff is probably the nicest things you could say about it. How could anyone not just cringe with shame. No person under (not over 35) would take that seriously, it’s so set up its just not funny. He is a pure PR man nothing less and defiantly nothing more.
45 - I am sure not, but thousands are in the same boat, and please don’t tell me he has not exploited it, he has just the same as Brown weeping for his dead child. Yes I feel for both of them but some things just should not be for the public, what the heel has it to do with running a country…. ZERO. All it does it pull at heart strings for the Daily Mail type readers, I find it quite nauseating and shamefull.
50 - I suspect they might also be wondering why he doesn’t use a dishwasher; he most certainly can afford one.
And that’s the point - its artifice.
53 - Use a dishwasher for a couple of plates? Think of the environment man!
50 - alex you are a party bod to the end. You really think its that simple, hey come in and see me normal Dave, lets chat about things Mrs Housewife….. How is it “Political communication” its a bloke showing up his house and chatting, he just happens to be leader of a political party, but lets not mention that.
Even a day is a long time in politics now (the Feiler faster principle). This is the Brown honeymoon poll boost come early, as the heavy coverage has made the non-wonks realise the inevitability of his accession. It will all be over by next week.
Tyson @ 38 — you are right that rebranding will not bring us a new Conservative government. As Nick Palmer said at 14, when the government annoys people, their support moves away but then it drifts back.
People return to Labour because there is no reason to support the Conservatives, and there never will until they announce some policies. Labour is the only show in town.
The New Labour project, misguided and overhyped though it was, was not just about rebranding. It took away reasons for not voting Labour but there were also policies. When the Conservative government alienated a critical mass of its own supporters, these voters could find Labour policies they liked. It wasn’t just about Tony Blair’s vacuous smiling for the press (didn’t anyone spot how false it looked on television, let alone the absurdity of his Bush-inspired power walk?).
Portillo’s refrain that Cameron needs to take on and defeat the right is not helpful (unsurprisingly, since the Portallistas never got their man elected to run a whelk stall). If alex @ 12&13 is correct in thinking tax cuts is the chosen battleground then you have to wonder whether it is time for yet another Tory leadership election.
Newsflash: voters like tax cuts. What they don’t like are the concomitant cuts in services.
“He is a pure PR man nothing less and defiantly nothing more”.
54 - that is thinking of the environment. Using a dishwasher, when full, is far more efficient than wasting a bowl full of hot water for a couple of plates.
Dave as washer-upper. Remember Mrs Thatcher buying apples? And picking up cows? Still, she won in ‘79.
PS. What’s happened to the brilliant Rowan Atkinson?
Interesting comments by Mike Smithson at 22 and Mark Senior at 23.
We are not telling anyone what our policies are because Labour are a theiving buch of gits who will nick any they want. (Well they have so far) and we do not want to give advance notice leading to attacks.
Mark is also right that this is a one off poll and teh real polling evidence (elections) do not support that.
We will have to see where the polls are in October to know what is realy going on.
62 - bwahhahhhhaaaaa
Labour and the Tories have been stealing Liberal policies for years …
55 - political communication - “any communication (between politicians and voters) that has a political purpose”. It fits.
So you think it’s naff and won’t change a single vote in his favour. Maybe you’re right, maybe you’re wrong. Large chunks of the country probably don’t even know who David Cameron is. They see him doing “normal things” they are going to think he is “normal”. But anyway like i said i think that’s the secondary purpose to the exercise.
You can throw silly ‘accusations’ about being a “party bod” all you like. Won’t make them any more true. Unless you are using it to include people who have no association with political parties at all.
Dear me, I see the Cameronophobes are out in their adorable multitudes this morning. Just a one-point drop in the Tories’ poll rating and it’s like feeding time at the piranha tank. My take is that Labour got a predictable thank-God-that-pillock-Blair-has-finally-confirmed-he’s-going-this-century boost. Whether that’s maintained when not-so-Sunny Jim takes over or even during the next few months while Blair is still hanging around I rather doubt. Anyway, I believe the Tories will re-establish a substantial poll lead very soon and look forward to reading ‘You call 10 points a good lead. Kinnock was polling twenty point leads against Thatcher when Labour was unelectable, you know.’
RE 63, Tabbers, I thought that was what you were there for?
63 - Quite. You consistently make the mistake (from the perspective of doing well in elections, rather than having your policies adopted) of adopting them 1) when they are unpopular and 2) when your opponents have plenty of time to either rubbish them (see 1) or steal them
I also note that no one seems to have discussed loans for peerages recently. Interesting to hear Ruth Turner has been questioned.
We do not know what sort of effect if any that scandel will have, and on whom. There are still plenty of events to go around.
68 - the Mail are quoting Angus MacNeil “I get the impression that they will question the Prime Minister.”
Benedict White @ 68. It is not as if the Conservatives can make hay with loans for peerages since they are also under suspicion, while the Lib Dems have their own problems.
Selling honours is indeed a scandal but one unlikely to affect the electoral price of fish.
Worst case: Blair is a crook. But he’ll be replaced before the next election so it won’t sway many votes.
68: Yes, it’s getting closer and closer to the pretty straight kind of guy. Who was the last PM to face criminal charges? Wonder if Brown will end up playing Ford to Blair’s Nixon.
68. Yes, that’s an interesting one, Benedict.
If it were not for the possibility of LFP blowing up suddenly I would say all the lay prices up to end of March 2007 on Blair Swith are far too short.
All this Labour criticism about a rich, public shool educated leader with floppy hair and his kids in the kitchen.
So why are they now claiming that this weeks contribution from the very rich, public school eductaed leader, but with less hair with his kids pictures on mugs, is the nuLanb version of the Gettysburg address.
Are they thinking of anyone else? Perhaps eeyore from Millfield will let us know
I’m confused. Does this make three YouGov Polls in a week, a Four point Tory Lead, a Seven Point Tory Lead, All square and the Lib D’s up and down like a trampoline. They’re not becoming the new Mori are they? I hope Mr Smithson is not doing what the papers do and thinking the only polls are comparable to ones in the same newspaper even if they are from the same polling organisation.
O/T But what are the odds of Brazil going to the second round(in the elections!).
Re Mikes comment “Possibility Labour could be back in lead in next Tuesdays Populus poll”
Looking at how You gov ratings have changed since early september we get Con -4, Lab +4 Lib -1 oth +1.
Applying this change to Populus poll in early september (Con 36,Lab 32,Lib 20 Oth 12) gives;
con 32 Lab 36 Lib 19 oth 13.There seems Mike a vey good chnce Labour will be in the lead. However agree with sentiment taht all polls post cnferenc eare abit ephemeral.The best steerwill i think come from ICM later in October.
Roger H
64 - In what way is Cameronlike any of us, in what way is his life “normal” if there is such a thing. He has a vast amount of money, has always been given a leg up in life and has no worries(disabled son aside)of any kind similiar to myself or my family.
My car needs a new MOT, Tax Disc and service this week I panic to think what that might add up to, he probably dosn’t even have to think about it.
I have no problem with people with money, but please don’t give us the old “I’m just like you” line, its never worked to date and I can’ see Dave changing that.
It’s interesting with this poll confirms a trend we have had in the last few years that parties are getting a ‘conference bounce.’ This is nothing new in global politics as there is always a bounce for US Presidential candidates after their respective conventions. The Tories will probably be back in the lead after their conference, what has to be worrying for Labour is that this conference was a good one for Tony Blair, and not a particlarly good one for Gordon Brown, and this bounce is Blair’s not Brown’s.
This poll will doubtless concern Tories who do not believe in Cameron’s apporach too, leading to a dangerous time potentially for Cameron, he must not fall into the trap of giving way to pressure from the Tory right. I have believed for a while now that with it being certain that Brown will take over from Blair, the only way Labour can win the next election is if the Tories self destruct (which if Labour employ a clever strategy, they can play a part in stirring up). This poll is not a crisis for Cameron, but will add to the tensions that may potentially bring that self destruction about.
Pretty impossible to comment on polls at the moment with it being in the middle of conference season, so I’ll just let others set themselves up as Aunt Sallys!
Once we get a month down the line I think we should see if the lie of the land has changed. It’s easy to get caught up in the here and now without remembering that real life has a habit of coming back and biting you on the ankles……
(Man City beating Arsenal and subsequently going back to the old ways is a useful analogy, I’m sure Tyson understands
)
76 - Interesting that you boil everything down to money. Anyway if you read my post i didn’t say that he was “normal”. But then nor was Tony Blair or Charles Kennedy in that sense. In politics everything is about public perception and little is down to reality. Cameron is probably the most privileged leader of the Conservatives for half a century. But i would be slightly surprised if his public perception quite matches that. Nobody watching the webcam stuff is going to think “Rich Toff”.
I’ve posted before my opinions to the effect that I don’t believe any political opinion polls are very meaningful, whatever they say. However, could someone in the know please indulge me and answer me a question about them.
What, if any, adjustment do the main pollsters make to counter any skew caused by people who claim to support a party that they’ll probably not even get a chance to vote for?
For example - the “Others” probably include people who support the Greens, the BNP, Respect etc but, come election day, won’t find their preferred party on the ballot paper in thyeir constituency? Do people like this cause the pollsters any minor headaches or are they so small in number to not be worth worrying about?
77 The trend you mention of conference bounce in the polls has been going on for at least 30 years . I will believe that Labour support is recovering when people actually get off their backsides on go to the polls and vote for them in the same sort of % support they got at the last GE . As I have said before though they are the government and the next GE is in their hands to win or lose and they should at least be favourites to be largest party . I have bet a small amount on that and layed a bit more that the Conservatives will not get an overall majority .
I’d have to echo some of the previous statements expressed here. I doubt that any poll boosts for Labour will be permanent. Even when Cameron and the Conservatives weren’t always in the media’s eye recently, support was generally in the same bracket. Labour’s only got to level-pegging because of the conference. So I wonder if even without the conference, Conservative support would go back up over time. Or would the conference “bounce” last a long time if there wasn’t another to counteract it?
That said, it might be a good test of Cameron’s leadership skills to see how he manages these latest polls. Of course most members might not really care, so he could walk it anyway.
If anyone should be worried it’s the Lib Dems for losing support to Labour. Is 16% a low we haven’t seen for some time? I must admit I don’t follow their progress that much, but I was used to seeing it quite a bit higher.
79 “Nobody watching the webcam stuff is going to think “Rich Toff”.
Maybe not, but then start of lying about what/who he is may not be a good thing. Then again as you point out its about perception and if people wnr for Balir why not his younger copy?!
I think it was Blair’s speech that achieved this. He connected with the voters across the ether when he attacked Cameron’s positions - I think that got a bigger response than his joke about Cherie running off with the bloke next door.
And redflag is right, like a good general he’s put confidence back into the Labour party. Ian Gibson said he felt like going straight out to deliver leaflets after the speech, and I’m sure other Labour people felt the same. And the public have a combination of relief he’s going (which has drawn the poison) plus admiration for his particular skills. Blair’s recovered his mojo; he’s welcome to stay till next summer if he keeps this up and destroys Cameron before he goes as a parting gift to the Labour party.
83 - do you think there’s anything in the webcam pieces that is “a lie”?
Surely the more pertinent question about this whole debate however is: “What the hell are the Telegraph playing at?”
Roger, if you really believe the cardboard cities of the homeless were a uniquely Tory thing, then you are either blind or stupid.
Right in front of my flat is a row of homeless people, who live in cardboard boxes, in a semi-permanent set-up. Other streets around here are equally full of homeless people.
Its just the same as it was under the Tories - ten long years ago. The only difference is that the drug abuse (crack-smoking etc) is now more overt. They used to hide in stairwells or backyards to do it, now they use phone kiosks right on the street.
No doubt Snowflake has a survey from the Polytechnic of Peckham Tescos showing that all homeless are now living it up in Windsor Palace, but it ain’t so. Nothing has changed. Despite the tax billions.
82 - “If anyone should be worried it’s the Lib Dems for losing support to Labour. Is 16% a low we haven’t seen for some time? I must admit I don’t follow their progress that much, but I was used to seeing it quite a bit higher.”
Congratulations, Raj, on the most condescending, patronising posting of the day.
Interesting piece by Martin Kettle in the Guardian today. This is part.
..The coming year will all be about attempts by Cameron and Brown to define one another. But the contest will take place on two fronts and in two ways. On the personal front, Cameron has shown himself a master. Recent opinion polls show ratings to die for. He and his ad-men advisers have instinctively understood the Rove doctrine so brilliantly described by Joe Klein in his recent book Politics Lost: “In the television era, fleeting impressions counted far more than cogent policies. Fleeting impressions were all most people have time for. Presidential politics was all about character … or, rather, the appearance of character. Did he (or she) seem strong? Trustworthy? Care about people like me? The utter simplicity of it was astonishing. It wasn’t about the economy, stupid. It was about the appearance of caring about the economy, stupid.”
It would be hard to think of a description that fitted Cameron’s strategy more snugly. Yet if that was all there was to say about British politics, then how come he hasn’t already killed off the contest? With personal ratings as strong as his, and Blair’s and Brown’s in eclipse, the Tory party ought to be soaring ahead. But it isn’t. The Tory lead, though consistent, cannot keep pace with the leader’s standing. The explanation for that must lie in the Tory party. Voters may like Cameron, but they remain suspicious of his party.
The position on taxes should go like this. We the ……. party are going to cut your taxes; substantially. We the……. party
therefore recommend that you make private provision on: health, pensions in fact most of the things that the state used to provide, the state will not be providing: result the voters believe the …….party. If on the other hand the, ……..party announces. We the ……party will cut you taxes; substantially, and the state will go on providing all the services that it provided before, only better, cos’ we’ll make it much more efficient: the voters will say a***e!
By the sounds of things this morning, the knives will be out for Dave if he slips up this week. I know it’s easier to moan than to support, but if he has annoyed this many activists, will he have enough support on the ground to actually do the campaigning?
Interesting article highlighted by Mike - seems to be saying ‘we like where this guy is going, but don’t believe that he is taking his party there.’
[90] They have a saying across the pond: “you can’t spend the same tax dollar twice” - but everyone wishes you could…
all polls are totally meaningless until 6 months after Brown takes over as PM.
Sean at 87 - both with an added arrogance that is beyond parody.
I wonder where he was in 1978-79?
Martin Kettle obviously hadn’t read this mornings Yougov poll. The Tory party is now two points better thought of than Cameron.
SeanT. I bought my flat in Old Compton St in 1983. If you havent noticed any difference since the 80’s till now you must be walking around blindfolded. Incidentally look at SBS’s link at 17 and if it doesn’t send a chill down your spine you are either under 35 or a fascist!!
95. I’ve no doubt that certain areas of London have got better, Soho amongst them. Equally, I’ve no doubt that some areas have got worse. Mine has got worse, if we take the open drug abuse into account. This is a new phenomenon.
Perhaps your junkies were displaced to Fitzrovia - where I live.
This pattern can be discerned elsewhere. The South Bank is better but the Strand is possibly worse. King’s Cross is a bit better, Euston maybe worse.
What is clear, in any event, is that the homeless and cardboard cities are not Tory phenomena, as your unpleasant ‘I’m alright Jack’ posting asserts. The poor are still very much with us, with me, on my street, chugging freebase on the pavement in broad daylight, despite the billions spent by your party.
RE 95, Roger, are you saying that an old comedy sketch in fact represented Conservative party policy in the 1980’s?
So, interesting…
After a successful Tory conference I predict the Lib Dems will be squeezed further.
Maybe both Labour and Liberals down 3 points or so with Conservatives back up to 39 or 40 ?
So, is will be CON 39 LAB 33 LD 13
It’s not wishful thinking, it’s logical.
Matt.
Mr Smithson at 89. Do you have a take on 74. On you at 89, there is of course one definite legacy of the Blair years the Presidentialisation of British politics which will help Cameron overcome this. Your point does though potentially allow the Lib Dems to play the “Jack Layton” card in.
The reason Soho got better, has very little to do with the present government. Soho got better due to technology, the video recorder, meant that porn could be watched at home. The porn industry that dominated Soho went through ‘change’ and transferred to the internet. The porn industry withdrew, Gays moved in and in came wine bars and the rest. Having said that Sean T is being less than honest. When I went to work in London 1968, I hardly saw anyone on the street, the odd vagrant, some gypsy pressing heather into your hand that was it. When I left 1993, I was stepping over vagrants etc to get onto the escalator at Waterloo station, the Thatcher years certainly put more people on the street. The reasons they were there, you can argue about, the fact they were there you can’t. I visit london on a regular basis, I’m amazed at how much cleaner it is now, compared to the 80/90’s.
95 Roger
You live in Old Compton St? I work round the corner in St James’s. You want to meet up for a pint after work some time?
96, 97. That splendid Rowan Atkinson sketch (the man’s a genius) is interesting on several levels.
On the face of it, its a well-judged dig at the Tories, who were of course the pompous twonks in power at the time.
But I detect a subtle subtext, especially the amusing ‘curry’ gag. I see here an early form of what we might call Crypto-Manning humour.
Crypto-Manning humour is humour that is basically the humour of
Bernard Manning - extremely robust, possibly racist, often very cruel gags about ethnic minorities, nationalism, race, gender, immigration, handicapped people, etc.
These days you are not allowed to do overt Bernard Manning humour. For obvious reasons. These themes are taboo. Yet because the taboos over this kind of humour are now so intense, and because taboo-breaking is the essence of much humour (Cf Freud) we paradoxically find these jokes incredibly funny.
So comedians have a problem. The stuff that people find most funny is the stuff they are least allowed to tell.
So what do they do? They adopt ironically offensive personae which allow them to tell these kinds of jokes, while pretending the whole thing is a post-modern, post-PC gag.
Al Murray’s Pub Landlord is a case in point. People of course are laughing at the mad bigoted persona of the Pub Landlord, but I strongly suspect they are also secretly laughing with him, at his twitting of women and his dissing of foreigners and his vaunting of Britain - the deliciously taboo stuff many of us harbour in the depths of our subconscious.
Same, but even more so, goes for Ali G and Borat. How many people when laughing at Ali G and his credulous guests were also actually laughing at the stupidity of much urban black street culture? A lot, I think. But they wouldn’t normally be able to do this, they might even hate themselves if they thought they were doing it. I think some fans of Ali G are even unaware of this subtle reason why they like him.
Borat is the epitome of this. Through Borat we can laugh at: Jews, Jew haters, white trash Americans, stupid central Asians, and backward Muslims. All at once. And its hilarious.
What’s more, these comedians are beloved of the liberal left elite. An incredible achievement.
“He is a pure PR man nothing less and defiantly nothing more”.
Long game, dear boy, the long game…
Ask any serious political animal from any party (who is honest) and they will tell you what huge threat DC is to both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Is there an GE this year?.. no. What’s the rush?, it’ll only serve the opposition to rush.
New policy is always being debated and will be presented, starting next week and beyond. Enough will be in place for the May elections to significantly increase our number of councillors again.
Leaders who can take a party to victory are born that way and DC is one of those people.
Matt.
Looking at ConservativeHome this morning there is much less criticism of DC than I would have imagined - particularly after the unfavourable way this has been reported in the Telegraph. Normally the Conhome audience loves to bash Cameron with anything that’s available. I wondered whether the Labour catch-up has broken the complacency a bit and people are thinking that they must support the leadership. If that is the case then it’s good for Cameron.
re 99. Very often pollsters carry out surveys at about the same time and come out with different results. It’s the nature of the best. As I say in the main article I think this latest one was carried out when Tony’s speech and its impact were all over the news and this helped the party.
Just seen it. A full half page chart on page 9 of the Guardian based on the graphs we use here on changing betting odds. The paper has done it very well.
RE 105, Mike, any chance of a link?
To get back to the betting market, if you want to hedge against Brown, isn’t the market to bet on the next chancellor of the exchequer. At present, Alistair Darling and Ed Balls lead the field. But if, say, Dr Reid were to triumph in the leadership election, he will not appoint Darling - another Scot and a Brownite without a base. And he will not appoint Balls, a Brownite through and through. Isn’t the obvious candidate David Miliband - intellectually credible and therefore likely to play well with the financial markets? Then why aren’t Betfair making a market in Miliband? Does anybody know how you get Betfair to make a market?
Well, to be fair the YouGov poll was taken at precisely the optimal moment to catch the favourable reception of TB’s speech. I agree that things will settle back a little.
Unusually, there’s not been much advance publicity about the Tory conference yet. The media could treat it three ways: Cameron bounces back, Cameron fights the turning tide, or a bit of a non-event. They don’t seem to be expecting anything much to happen.
The washing-up webcam? As a PR stunt with the subtext ‘I understand modern technology’ it’ll probably work as far as it goes. The problem is that it plays another card in Cameron’s only visible long suit: ‘I’m a modern chap whom you wouldn’t mind living next door to’. People have got that message and they’re getting a bit irritated by the emphasis on it. To put it crudely (and those who write leaflets will do nothing else): Do we want a PM who understands the economy, or a PM who’s good at washing up?
108 - I PM who’s good a washing up does it for me. Most people can relate to washing up. It’s something I do 2 or 3 times per day myself, as do most people. I’ve never run the economy though - I can’t relate to that at all.
104.”Looking at ConservativeHome this morning there is much less criticism of DC than I would have imagined - particularly after the unfavourable way this has been reported in the Telegraph. Normally the Conhome audience loves to bash Cameron with anything that’s available.”
They’re probably yet to recover from Jane Ellison selection in Battersea.
It seems it was the crucial event of the week for some ConHome posters
Do women like men who expect to be praised for doing the washing up?
111. I wish somebody would praise me for doing the washing up - but as I live alone it’s not going to happen…
Wonder who washes up in Snowflake’s household?
104 mike
You obviously did not click on Tory Diary, where the Editor has closed comments on the Tory 10 commandments, (it took a turn for the worse) all of the bile went on there: suggest u take a peek.
Ok it was yesterday, but even they are probably suffering from bile overload!
Having just changed the layout and colour scheme on my blog, I wonder if anyone thinks it is an improvement?
RE 114, coldstone, I think there are a lot of head bangers there, as well as some agent provocaters, even if Tabman has been banned
Mr Smithson. No piece on yesterday’s questioning by the Cops. Any piece appearing on the Local By - Elections at all.
re DC the washer-up(erer)……..
is anyone else reminded of the Orwell novel “Down & Out in London & Paris”, and those who did the washing-up in the Parisian restaurants were considered to be at the bottom of the pile……the “plongeurs”………..anglicised as plonkers”
…..now DC as a plonker……..yes, I can see that!
113. Probably an illegal immigrant Albanian whom they pay £1 per hour to…while delighting in the ‘free’ market movements of people and services that happens under Labour…
meow!
re v107. I’ve long regarded Ed Balls as a certainty as next Chancellor if Gordon does get it. I can’t see Brown choosing another Scot in Darling and Balls has been by his side for so long - “he knows where all the bodies are buried”.
re 118. Sean Fear’s piece will be up in an hour or so.
Arthur Greenwood @ 107 — to have David Miliband (or anyone else) added to Betfair’s Next Chancellor market, email Betfair to request it. The address is on their home page.
116. I like both versions
121. Osborne vs Balls? Oh, Dear….which one came across worse on TV?
RE 123, many thanks Andrea.
I will work on a new poll soon too. just need to make it funny…
116 - I like it - but I also liked the old version - although it could have done with being a lighter colour - just my preference on reading blogs (I dislike very dark colour schemes and find them difficult to read)
RE 125, many thanks Andy. The change of template was to make it lighter and easier on the eye.
I hope you did not mind me lifting your post, it is just that I found it very funny.
“Crypto-Manning humour ” - this has its roots in the 1960s - remember Alf Garnett? Ricky Gervaise thrives on it.
Rowan Atkinson - is he really of the liberal LEFT? (Is it his brother who is some sort of political loony?)
98 - “It’s not wishful thinking, it’s logical.”
I’m afraid it is wishful thinking on your part. I recall reading posts by Rik earlier in the year stating that LD support would be heading south of 13%. It did not materialise. I would be surprised if your logic prevailed now.
This was a good poll for Labour. LDs and Tories can try to put it down as “margin of error” stuff. Nevertheless, the decline in Cameron’s ratings is clear in recent months. (But they are nevertheless still good.)
Benedict -
I was flattered
” This was a good poll for Labour. LDs and Tories can try to put it down as “margin of error” stuff. Nevertheless, the decline in Cameron’s ratings is clear in recent months. (But they are nevertheless still good.) ”
What’s the use of a poll taken during the Labour conference and before the Conservatives?
Talk about a skewed view.
Wait until this time next week and then let’s see.
Id the polls show the same, I’ll be the first to say you are right.
Matt.
Quite sure Tories will pick off Labour points next week… but 13% for the LDs - I will be the first to congratulate you on your logic if that is so… maybe 15%?
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