Will Cameron be able to take his party with him?
October 1st, 2006
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Meanwhile the young leader plans to attack Brown for being “weak”
There’ll be a bit of a relief as the Tories gather in Bournemouth this morning that the second poll to come out since the Labour conference still has the party in the lead. The survey by ICM in the Sunday Mirror, has with changes on the last poll by the firm CON 36 (nc): LAB 35 (+3): LD 19 (-3).
Fieldwork began on Thursday, a day later than yesterday’s YouGov poll, though the broad trend is the same - the Tories staying where they are with a three point switch from the Lib Dem to Labour. No doubt Team Cameron will be reminding critics in Bournemouth that in September 2005 ICM was showing a 9% Labour lead.
For the Tories the big question that is out of their hands is knowing how Labour plan to attack them. With all the focus on leadership matters in Manchester we heard very little from the party about the approach they intend to take to the increased Tory threat.
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Do they portray Cameron as all spin and having no substance or do they accept he is genuinely trying to move to the centre but will not be able to take his party with him.
Labour’s dilemma is almost the same as that which faced the Tories when Blair emerged and John Major’s party went into its 1997 General Election disaster without having this resolved.
In a perceptive article in the Indy on Sunday this morning John Rentoul writes “…Labour is faced with the more difficult problem of how to deal with an opposition leader whose sincerity is accepted by the British public. Tony Blair ought to be the first to understand that Labour’s focus should be on the fact that the Tory party does not believe any of the green, liberal, high-spending stuff that it has just voted for in a pale imitation of his rewriting of Clause IV…Of course, we can now see clearly the limits of the change wrought in Labour’s psychology - one of the reasons Blair is going is because he failed, ultimately, to convert the party to his ideology. But Labour made a huge effort, lasting more than a decade, to suspend its disbelief.”
Meanwhile in a taste of how the Tories will respond to Brown there’s an interview with Cameron in the Sunday Telegraph who attacks the Chancellor for being weak. This is a completely new line which does not fit with current perceptions and it will be interesting to see if it resonates.
This is how Cameron lays into Brown: “.. He’s being pushed around by everyone. He’s been told he needs to look more modern, so he tells us he likes the Arctic Monkeys. Incredible. He’s told he looks too Scottish, so he tells us he likes Gazza’s goal against Scotland. Utterly incredible..He’s told you’re plotting too much and you look like a schemer, so he says Tony’s always going to be my friend. Completely incredible..If you’re pushed around this much before you’ve even applied for the job what are you going to be like as prime minister.”
The main betting interest during the Tory conference will be its affect on the Labour leadership. My guess is that this very personal approach by Cameron will affect the markets and we could see a weakening in the Brown price. For those wanting to bet on Brown the next few days might be the time to do it.
Mike Smithson
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Michael White said Gordon Brown is relishing facing Cameron and his partner Osborne. He warned that they are in danger of looking like two rich boys who have just been given a Porsche facing the hard working son of the Manse.
Depends really. I guess a substantial section of the middle classes would be pretty scared by the “hard-working son of the Manse”. He wouldn’t think twice about taking their (unearned) money. Portraying himself like that could be the fast track to unwinding all the ‘bias’ that Blair has built up in the electoral system.
I’m sure there is a section of the left who still can’t really fathom how the Conservatives got repeatedly elected easily throughout the eighties.
Labour and Brown should focus on splitting Cameron off from the rest of the Tory party. That’s where he is really vulnerable as the Heffer attacks in the Telegraph and the daily anguish in ConHome demonstrate.
Roger’s point simply does not resonate. Cameron’s attack on Brown being pushed around does.
Mike Smithson
If the Cons get as much publicity from their conference as Labour did they must zoom upwards for a month or so.
Certainly they need it, judging from the general overall run of local election results over the past 6 weeks. I will be most suprised if it does not happen.
On the whole they have a sympathetic press, cannot see how they can miss.
Everyone seems agreed that the big “split” among disconted Tory activists and the leadership at the moment is the refusal to promise tax cuts at the next election, bizarrely even IMO the refusal to promise now that they will promise tax cuts at the next election in 3 years time.
I always wonder whenever this debate surfaces why someone doesn’t ask the “Tory activists” if they think Ken Clarke was right to raise taxes in his early years as Chancellor.
“The main betting interest during the Tory conference will be its affect on the Labour leadership.”
“Effect” surely…?
Although I am a strong proponent of the policy-lite approach until the real battle is joined, even I am beginning to wonder why David Cameron doesn’t make some movement on the lower taxes issue.
It should be perfectly possible to commit to reducing the tax burden (even float a couple of taxes that need re-balancing) providing the economic conditions permit, whilst guaranteeing to protect spending on health, eductaion, defence etc. It’s the old “we’ll spend the money better” line that to my mind resonates better than the “sharing the proceeds of economic growth” line.
It also enables us to lay into Brown’s tax take much more effectively than we are at present.
“education”
Tabman has a letter in the Observer - see if you can guess which one oit is!
Robin Wiggs @ 7 — reasons for the Conservatives not promising to protect spending on health, education and so on are:
first, the voters wouldn’t believe them — like it or not, Labour is trusted in these areas and the Tories are not;
second, there are an awful lot of Conservatives who think Labour have made a complete mess of things;
third, many Conservatives really would like to see the whole shooting match privatised (whether that is small-c conservative is another matter) and probably wouldn’t keep their mouths shut when asked.
Labour is perhaps most vulnerable over PFI and if Cameron were to attack there, he might be able to convince voters that under Labour, cash in the public services is being squandered. Trouble is that (again) the Conservatives really do think these things are done better by the private sector (likewise the management consultants infesting Whitehall, and the piecemeal privatisation).
9. Hmmm, am I missing the joke or is he using a pseudonym?
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/letters/story/0,,1884861,00.html
I think Dave’s coming over quite well in this Marr interview.
11 - Hmm. He might regret that statement about “only being a politician though”.
3. It is too early to say whether it will resonate with the public. We’ll have to wait for Gordon to become leader. The piece which was on the radio included a very funny speech by Brown who ridiculed Osborne very effectively for telling the FT he was ‘brutal’!
Incidentally Marrs interview with Cameron is very revealing.
The telegraph has an interview with Cameron…he actually makes a couple of good points about Brown, but then the headline of the other piece tryig to recap them made him look like a bit nasty (just reading the headline I got the impression that he was launching a big personal attack on Brown, but reading the interview wasn’t the case…ok, it always was an attack on GB, but it sounded difference in the whole interview)
SSP and Sheridan soap opera have reached a crucial episode with the secret video….I suppose Brown should take lessons from SSP the next time Blair promises him something: tape him!
Blair’s agent doesn’t sound very wise….he asked for the deselection of Iain Wright and Kevan Jones in next door’s seats.
I don’t think it’s the best thing for Labout to start new infightings…ultra-Blairites want the coup rebels deselected, some Brownites asked for disciplinary actions against Hutton for the “fuc*ing” comment…then there’s the awkward squad….in the end they can take disciplinary actions against the whole PLP and it would be easier!
What we see this week is an attempt by the Cameroonies to proove the ascendency of tribal ‘TV couch’ politics. “Who gives a monkeys what we stand for, we’ll fight that out later - meanwhile our glib smiler will schmooze you into voting him and we’ll advance in his footprints. Well it worked for Blair so why not?”
There are clearly forces at large in the Liberal Democrats and SNP promoting the same agenda as well as the rather dated-looking ‘New Labour Party’ which is completely bought and sold on it already. How bought, our boys in blue are no doubt prying into as I post this.
Meanwhile, I see that the News of the World today is promising the imminent imprisonment of the ‘alleged!’ biggest bare-faced lying politician this country has ever known. Those of you out there who are cheering for the thought of Tony Blair on bread and water (surely porn videos and conjugal vists? - ed) must stand by for disappointment. Remember Tony Blair is the narcissist’s narcissist. He actually believes in his own near-sainthood and the total tosh he tells us all.
Alas for Mr Sheridan he is of a somewhat different personality type altogether and, if the NoW are proved correct, will punish himself mentally far more than he will get from the silk-decked class-war veterans of the High Court. If there is a guilty verdict it will involve conspiracy charges rather than the solo efforts of jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken - and our wigged ‘friends’ will surely mete out to Tommy on a severity level totally surpassing the novelist’s busman’s holiday which Jeffrey Archer got away with.
We live in onteresting times.
14. “just reading the headline I got the impression that he was launching a big personal attack on Brown, but reading the interview wasn’t the case”
Welcome to British journalism
Slightly deviating, but having read Luntz in the Times Review this morning, I have to say that he appears either just plain arrogant or simply becoming too big for his own boots. I do not know how he picks his audiences but he just talks as if if knows it all and that is that. His views about Labour voters and activists views are not what I hear, and I suspect I have my feet on the real ground.
He hasn’t any warmth. Just false sincerity. Brown surprised me a few weeks ago by showing a warmth that we hadn’t previously seen. Cameron is the reverse. Blair has lots of it. I doubt the country will warm to him when they get to know him but it’s too early to be certain.
I think you underestimate Roger’s point, Mike @ 3. Cameron is showing what a weak politician he really is by relying on Rove’s basic tenets. ‘I am strong, he is weak. I am trustworthy, he is untrustworthy. I am like you, he is not like you.’ Roger is attacking one of the basic tenets (and is a sensible strategy)in this case the third tenet. Roger’s point is ‘No he is not like you. He is a very privileged dilletante, who heads a front bench team who are all Eton, Oxford and the Guards types.’
Knock down one of the tenets and his strategy gets blown off course. Well if he is not like me, is he in fact distrustworthy?Well yes. Because he is trying to pretend that he understands, but he doesn’t. Well if he is untrustowrthy is he a strong leader? No, strong leaders can be trusted.
He also has a problem with this strategy, because Brown has a rabbit up his sleeve (doesn’t he always). Brown has a record. And the record is difficult to form a cogent argument against (to a lay person) having overseen 10 years of economic growth and stability. The Iron Chancellor will be harder to portray as weak than Gore or Kerry who struggled to find achievements in the face of the Rovian blast.
Cameron’s problem as a strategist is that he brings nothing new to the table. His approach is imitation. Blair strategy here, Rove strategy there. He is an empty politician and the polls have started to reflect this. He is the political equivalent of a boy band. All over the papers now, but with no substance his album will be in the bargain bin before long.
18 - you don’t think he believes what he’s saying?
As far as the tory attacks on GB is concerned, they have to sure of the target. The perception of GB’s record as chancellor is well in front of the actuality. Criticising GB on behalf of private sector pensioners is sellable. Tory attacks on his personality are not. The voters give zero weight to his ‘clubbability’, or his ‘moodiness’, and they don’t care about his ’schemeing’ (unless the party looks split).
MS praises Osbourn for his stratagey of attacking GB’s personality. The only critisms of his personality that matter, come from his own side. Osbourn should concentrate his fire on GB’s performance as chancellor. And that as to be on what has actually gone wrong. ‘There is a recession around the corner’ is also unsellable.
19. Thanks for the impartial analysis, “I hate DC”.
David 4
It depends what you mean by a sympathetic press. Most of the sympathy seems to come from the liberal/left papers. The right wing press whose attitude to the Tories was once sycophantic is much more critical. Even when the editorial line is to still support the Tories, individual columnists are given a licence to attack Cameron which would have been unthinkable years ago. Going back to the past, Beaverbrook/Northcliffe ensured the bulk of the press always supported the Tory party come what may. Both those press Lords for instance, wouldn’t even allow its journalists to report on the ‘Profumo Affair’ until the story was broken in French/German papers and it became unavoidable. I’m sure come the election the Tory press will fall back into line, but will never return to the uncritical support it once gave. Remember what happened with the Sun. When the UK was bundled out of the ERM, Major rang up Mackenzie to ask what line the Sun (then a Tory supporting paper) would be taking, ‘John on my desk is a big bucket of shit, tomorrow morning I’m going to pour it all over your head,’ was Kelvin’s reply. If Cameron slips, the Tory press and its attack dogs Heffer/Hitchens/Phillips will tear Cameron to shreds.
19. Utter nonsense ‘I love DC’.
23 - If Heffer has been holding off on Cameron for the last six months, It’ll be amusing to see what happens when he really lays into him
Good argument DC. You must have thought long and hard to come up with it. I am continually bowled over by your capacity for political discourse.
So, which bit do you dispute? The bit about Cameron using a Rovian strategy? Or the bit about the difficulty of portraying Cameron as normal, or Brown as weak? Or the bit about Cammy’s style over substance?
Presumably the public won’t have to judge Brown on his record as Chancellor - they will have a couple of years as PM to make up their mind.
20. I doubt it but that’s not important. He sounds fake. Blair managed not to sound fake for years though he obviously was.
My message at 1 was Michael White talking on the radio. He said we’d have to wait for Blair to leave the stage but the danger for Cameron and his closest buddy Osborn is that they might look like a couple of rich kids who have been given a Porsche when facing Brown, the workaholic son of the Manse. They then played a clip of Brown demolishing Osborne in parliament(approximately)
“He complained to the FT that since he became Shadow Chancellor I’ve been brutal to him! (laughter). Well now I’ve had time to read his economic paper I realize I haven’t been brutal enough! (sustained laughter)……etc.” It was a masterclass.
alex 25
I agree if the Hefferlump is like this when things have been going well for Cameron, what he’s going to write if things go bad: Gawd knows!
26. Pretty much all of it…
What Mike doesn’t say is that the Sunday Telegraph had a similar interview with Brown on Cameron:
9 - just to prove I’m not a one-trick (Indy) pony
30. I know it is hard, but try to keep up. I know it is a big ask for you to go beyond “I like him, he’s really nice” as an argument, but it would be good if you tried. They might let you out at the weekends.
31 - Didn’t you know the Arctic Monkeys sold more records than the Beatles…
re 31. Nice parody Tabman.
BTW - I’ve looked at the print edition of the Observer and cannot see the letter you are said to have written. Is it there?
Mike Smithson
It’s impossible to say what the position will look like when Brown takes over and no longer has one arm tied behind his back. I must say though that if I could choose whether to do the PR for Cameron or Brown when they come to face each other I would choose Brown any day of the week. Cameron is as big a target as you could get.
I’m sure the pressure on Blair to go soon will become frantic. He is staying on for no purpose other than self aggrandisement which must be driving his colleagues mad
35 try the review setion
34 - I don’t think so - I heard that they had the fastest-selling debut album.
35 - Mike, you need to work out where letters are published but not on the main letters page!
Cameron is on very thin ice if trying to portray Brown as “weak”.
Cameron was pushed by his MEPS into not leaving the EPP.
Cameron was ignored by local associations who have not adopted A-list candidates.
Cameron was pushed by (we don’t know who, exactly) into abandoning his timetable for selecting the Tory candidate for London Mayor.
39 - I think he was “pushed” into the third of those by a lack of realistic candidates. More a luck of judgement with that one, rather than weakness.
Which letter is Tabmans in the observer?
I also agree with Mike. The attacks on Cameron are not resonating with the section of the public that counts, bt Brown has made himself look silly by claiming his favourite goal etc.
I also do not agree that we should promise tax cuts untill the public finances are in good shape.
‘Your man is weaker than our man’, for several entries. Not pb.com’s finest time.
In the shadow of the political master of his generation, they are both political pygmies. That is not to say either could not prove to be a better PM. But if he did, he’d still be a poorer politician.
41 - the one attack that does have substance (ironically) is Cameron’s lack of it (substance, that is). The Tory line is that they’re not letting out any policies because the media will savage them. The danger with this approach, of course, is that the lack of policies then becomes the story.
Many thanks Tabman, but which is your letter in the Observer?
I remember that Labour has already tried the chameleon thing about “Davo” and that didn’t work. If it comes to the point where he really has no policies in the run-up to the election, then Labour could dismiss him. But otherwise they need to attack his policies and because he doesn’t have any big policies at the moment……
Yeah, that’s a real stinker. Cameron has seen Conservatives come up with policies in the past and have Labour steal/slag them off. I’m still amazed that many of those focus groups in 2005 liked Conservative policies but not when they were told they were Conservative. Cameron simply had to try to change the “brand image”, because that was the most important thing to do. And it appears he has done a good job in that. The issue is what happens with stage 2 (policies) and when that happens. Maybe we’ll see some of that with the conference - maybe everyone will have to wait.
Come on Tabman…which is your letter?
You may as well own up now. Somebody will ‘out’ you sooner or later.
A couple of weeks ago there was a poll suggesting that the public thought that the Tories had better health and education policies than Labour, so they can’t be that important at this stage
Shock horror scream, I agree with Roger about DC.
There’s just too many Etonian/Oxbridge/Notting Hillbillies in Cameron’s kitchen cabinet. It’s like an Edwardian shooting party, somehow transported to The Conran Deli.
This will get up people’s noses. He needs to recruit some hard-nosed south-Essex types. And a couple more Celts with political ASBOs. Real people.
I’m available, Dave.
SeanT - I’m still on vapours myself for the same reason !!
48 - it would be an interesting debate to see who had the better claims to being a “normal person”
45 - sure he’s changing the “brand image”, but is it in the direction he wants?
The Tory Party is rapidly coming to resemble the Marie Celeste, an empty vessel drifting aimlessly.
O/T, but a fascinating little article in the Sunday Times Business Section. Apparently Britain’s earning from exports to the EU are in steep decline, as we export more outside Europe. The exact quote:
“In ten years the share of the UK’s overseas earnings attributeable to the EU has dropped from 55% to 40%.” A massive change in just a decade, and this is expected to continue, maybe even accelerate.
How peculiar. Weren’t we always told that the EU was our inevitable future, that as Europe integrated we would end up spending all our time trading our rap music for their camembert, and the EU would account for virtually all of our business? And, for that reason, we should sign up for the inevitable European superstate, despite the loss of sovereignty, otherwise we’d be kicked out and bankrupt…
Hasn’t turned out that way. In fact we’re heading in the opposite direction - pointing towards the US, and the fast growing Asian markets.
Very intriguing.
RE 47, Alex, yes policy lite seems to work with the general public but frustrates the anoraks because there is nothing to talk about
48 - to me and many others, your description is the Conservative Party at large that we know and love. The current leadership, not necessarily in its OE sense, but in its touchy-feely PR sense, makes it seem kike the party is in the grip of some Alien cabal.
SeanT. Does Cameron and entourage frequent the Conran deli on wardour St? I’ve seen all sorts of deviants around there but not them!
Raj at 45. I think you’re wrong to say the chamelion didn’t work. It has worked very well indeed and this is just in it’s first outing. It’s best is yet to come
54 -
55. I meant Tom Conran’s deli on Westbourne Grove! I actually didn’t know there was one on Wardour Street, too - that’s near me. Hmm..
Do they do those nice Italian cheeses? Very hard to get some decently ripe Talleggio in Central London.
And people say the political classes are trivial and metrocentric.
Surely we should all aspire, Tory and Labour alike, to be the perfect party, just like the Lib Dems, whatever they might be.
58 - well you can start by admitting you’ve stolen our policies for years
52: Could be the huge rise of the non-Eu & non-US ecomony? I.e. Chine & India etc? ave you heard about that seanT?
60 - Er, i think that was his point.
Ah that’s better …..
Think you are wrong about the Chameleon adverts Roger, not just from the avalanche of ‘talking heads’opinion at the time but also from comments on the doorstep (quite a few people I spoke to thought the little thing was “quite sweet”!)
I’d also offer my opinion that it’s of extremely dubious wisdom to try and undercut DC on the Blue/Green agenda at the moment prior to discovering his commitment(which I believe is absolute)to it.
Advertising an opponents (possibly) strongest suit could backfire disasterously.
I agree with earlier posters that attempting to split leader from the (sizable) right rump is a better bet tactically.
59 - What policies?
Interesting quotes at the top Mike and I’m starting to feel slightly paranoid! Ages ago I said that labour’s only effective method against Cameron was to separate him from his party (Rentoul) and, last week, nobody else apart from myself took up roger’s challenge where he stated that nobody attacked Brown for being weak (today’s Telegraph)!
Anyway, Rentoul misses the important rider I added which is that, having tried to paint him as being a ’same old tory’ the plan cannot work against Cameron any more, it’s too late to change tack convincingly. As for the latter point, Brown *is* weak, tactically as we all know and, as is becoming increasingly obvious, in matters of policy. I’ve long presumed that he wasn’t being attacked for this only because the timing needed to be right, not that people were ’scared’ to do so.
64 - the timing being that Brown has passed the last realistic hurdle to becoming leader, but a bit of stirring now might tempt some Blairites into a suicide mission to try and prevent it?
28 - Michael White and his condescending bonhomie make me want to turn the radio or TV off every time he comes on. The way he insinuates that he speaks for ‘the people’ is ridiculous, he speaks for cosy, middle class Guardian readers!
60, 61. Er, yeah - that was my point, MBoy!
The same article says that the percentage of our export earnings coming from the the EU will, in ten years time, be down to 30%.
30%! Less than a third!!
If it is very hard, at the moment, to persuade the people to sign up to a Federal Europe - common foreign policy, common diplomatic service, common currency, common barcodes on childrens heads etc - how much harder is it going to get: when we seem less and less rather than more and more economically tied to Europe?
The only good argument the pro-Europeans ever had was that political integration was justified by economic integration - that as we exported more and more to Europe we needed to follow Europe’s rules, and join all their clubs. etc etc
Turns out that was all bollox!
A quite startling insight. Be interesting to see how this affects British politics in coming years. Maybe this is why Brown is more eurosceptic than Blair. Brown’s seen the way trends are heading.
54 Not a touch on the growing image of the Scottish political mafia who have successfully infiltrated and taken control of the Labour and LibDem parties?
31 - Tabman, I can’t find the Brown interview, where is it on the website?
70 - Damn, I thought you were being truthful, just seen that it’s not there at all….
63 - Beveridge, Bank of England Independence, the complete suite of economic liberalism policies, green taxation (without specifics, of course), to name but some …
69, 70 - did you read the “quote” and the original?
Blairite calls for ‘traitors’ to be ousted”
I thought Cameron was good on the box this morning. He responded well to some untypically vigorous questioning by Andrew Marr (whose wife is apparently going to be GB’s spin chief if he becomes PM). The thing I noticed about him is that there is a hint of edginess about him whenever he speaks. You can sense a sort of toughness about him that means you would not want to get on the wrong side of him something you can also occassionally sense when Blair speaks.
I think this is interesting when you compare him to Johnson (Labour’s Cameron). Not being rude to Johnson but you couldn’t see him harming a fly. I wonder if this is Johnson’s problem in trying to launch a leadership challenge that he is just seen as too soft.
I sense that the British public want a sense of toughness and anger in their leader now something that is helping to boost John Reid’s position.
72 - It sounded convincing to me, it’s not unlike newspapers to try and get similar responses from different quarters in order to run them together! Easy to imagine that Brown would think those things though.
75 - ukpaul, that’s exactly the point. I’m not sure why anyone would run with an attack that’s so easy to turn back round on them.
74 - except it doesn’t come across as toughness and anger. With Cameron it comes across as petulance. A subtle difference. It’s not a deep, slow-burning anger at the state of affairs, but more a kind of “how dare you answer back to me boy!” superiority.
77 - an impatience at not getting his own way. As exemplified in the Sky interview.
76 - I’m sure that labour supporters reading your ‘quote’ (and those inclined to dislike Cameron) would have been buoyed by it (and disappointed to find out that it wasn’t truw). The Cameron quote does the same for his supporters and those inclined to support him.
Quotes like that harden views, they don’t change them. If it resonates it’s worth it I should think, especially far enough out from an election not to be blown into a major incident.
77 Tabman - yes I agree it comes across as posh boy superiority. “How dare you answer back, know your place.”
79 - the content is true
Except, saddo that I am, having watched the webcameron video he isn’t ewashing up - he’s loading the dishwasher. Butler’s night off, clearly 
80 - and the difficulty for the Tories is that with those with whom those buttons aren’t pushed, won’t spot it. Which is why the likes of Andrew M thinks it comes across as anger.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5395170.stm
At bloody last!!!!!!!!
I think a lot of the people detecting ‘posh boy superiority’ in DC are revealing their own social insecurity and chippiness rather than any real serious psychic flaws in Cameron.
Nonetheless that could still be a problem - lots of people feel chippy when confronted with an Old Etonian.
DC needs to do more stuff with kids. He’s very good with children, on TV - better than Blair - so he should make sure he’s surrounded by them.
Of course, in the Commons he’s right next to the Labour Cabinet, with its average mental age of 8. That’s a start.
Read on Sky this morning that Lord Heseltine(a paternal One-Nation Tory)feels DC shows promise as Leader of the Opposition,but,as Mr. Heseltine rightly states,being a potential PM demands something else-I know it is very early days,but nevertheless I would take Hezza’s reticence quite seriously
84 - “I think a lot of the people detecting ‘posh boy superiority’ in DC are revealing their own social insecurity and chippiness rather than any real serious psychic flaws in Cameron.”
Sean, you’ve illustrated my point about those who don’t spot the subliminal message quite well.
Steve’s just annoyed he’s not in the LibDems. He’s particularly peeed off that someone should be at 36+% in the polls adopting LibDem positions, for no other reason than he is the Conservative, rather than the LibDem, leader.
84 - i suppose it works both ways. There’s probably a sizeable section of the public who are secretly quite content with “their place” and the idea that the best people to rule us are… the ruling class.
What is interesting is that both Blair and Cameron ’simmer’ well. By that I mean that subtextual signs are given out that show what they are saying is being said with less forthrightness that it could be. Given that, there is real potential for them to break out of this at opportune (or inopportune) moments. As for Reid, if he ever got close, then you can easily imagine interviewers or opposition politicians managing to goad him until he explodes!
Blair has always managed to keep this in check, as with previous tory leaders. Is Cameron’s goading of Brown (for that is what it is when you look at it) going to work or can Brown hold it in check as Blair can?
88. Yes. I suspect this is true of a very large number of people, perhaps all of us. It’s like when you go to the doctor, it’s all very well having all these Ukrainian GPs, and Punjabi doctors, and Australians age 25, and lady doctors barely out of nappies, and lady doctors in general…
.. but probably in all of us their lurks a yearning for a proper doctor: i.e. a wise, kind, yet slightly stern man, in his mid 50s, with an educated Edinburgh accent.
Probably in all of us their lurks a similar shameful yearning to be governed by a dashing Etonian with an aristocratic background. It’s just the human condition. Millions of years of evolved social hierarchies are not erased by 100 years of egalitarianism.
88 - you could be right I suppose.
84 - I’m not surprised you see it that way. Like most people these days I know people from a fairly wide social spectrum, and I do think there is such a thing as posh boy superiority. (I saw one of them on a reality TV show the other day, set in an airport, expecting to be allowed on a plane without proper ID, only a student union card!)
There is no doubt that Cameron believes what he is saying and I am convinced that he would prefer to lose the people within the party who dissagree with the new direction he is taking the party in than to move further to the right. That’s a well trodden path and another election defeat.
All this style over substance. Rubbish. I’d rather have someone like DC than Ming for example. I’ve said it before, but both Labour and the LibDems would kill for someone as good as DC in presenting himself and the party.
You know it’s true !
Center right, that’s where the party should be and he’s taking it there.
The Conservative party will gain far more than they lose and this always had to happen in the end much like the New Labour project.
Give the process time, but if you eventually feel it’s not the party it once was, we live in a democracy.
You can vote for someone else who more matches your views. I’m pretty sure DC would just shrug and say, it’s your choice - you want to be part of the new Conservative party or you don’t… he’s not for turning !
Matt.
92,He won’t turn,a newly-hugged hoodie may mug him!
91 - lol. I suspect you’ll find that most students, regardless of background, will take the view that a Student Union card should be accepted as “proper ID”. Partly because that’s the only photo ID they’ll ever bother carrying around with them
92 - is there likely to be much drain to UKIP etc?
BTW if we changed from FPTP, how many more votes likely for little parties?
While we are debating the negative minutiae of Cameron’s mentality, perhaps we should remember that the present leader of the Labour party is a confirmed liar, a pathological narcissist, and a man who talks to God, while his replacement as leader is described by his own party as ‘flawed’, ‘deeply flawed’, ‘obsessive compulsive’, ‘dour’, ‘weird’, ‘almost autistic’, ‘a deluded control freak’, ’socially barely functional’ ‘deeply odd’, and certain to be ‘a f***ing disaster as a PM’.
By these standards, Cameron is the paragon of mental health. LOL.
94 - well he knew he should have a driving license, because he made all these excuses about why he didn’t have it.
Now Nicholas Soames and Otis Ferry spring to mind. (OK Ferry’s dad’s not posh, but Otis is from posh school, and has the attitude.) I’m not saying that I think all Tories or all upper class people are like this at all, but I think Tabman is right in that there is a button being pushed here by Cameron.
Has Cameron ever expressed any opinions on “the God question”?
“A bill making it illegal for banks and credit card companies to process payments to online gaming companies was unexpectedly approved by the US Congress yesterday, threatening to devastate the business of British companies such as PartyGaming, 888 Holdings and BetonSports.
The bill now needs only the approval of President George Bush to become law, and he is widely expected to sign it before the November 7 congressional elections to gain support from the political right.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=KVHSUOEERB5DJQFIQMFSFFOAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/money/2006/10/01/cnbet01.xml
So it’s fine to own as many guns as you’d like but betting your own money is evil? Pretty screwed up if you ask me…
99 - America is going to become a pariah country before long if they continue down this path.
90 seanT perhaps in generations to come people will yearn for an Indian lady doctor, as that will be standard by then?
96 “talks to God” is Cameron not a believer then?
I am trying to work out whether sean T prefers his lady doctors in or out of their nappies. But at least we can surely all agree that we don’t want Owen/Fox type doctors - in hospitals, politics or anywhere!
I think Indian male doctors in their 50s are well up their with their English counterparts for trustworthiness. More of a sense of humour as well.
90 - “.. but probably in all of us their lurks a yearning for a proper leader: i.e. a wise, kind, yet slightly stern man, in his mid 60s, with an educated Edinburgh accent.”
97 etc This posh thing can be overdone. To an extent the public seem to assume that the leader of the Conservative Party is posh regardless of his or her personal history. I recall in 2001 polling data suggesting Hague (Rotherham comprehensive) was regularly perceived to be more posh than Anthony Charles Lynton Blair QC(Fettes). The fact that Cameron may actually fit the stereotype to a degree doesn’t make much difference.
105 - Agreed.
x01. I’m not sure. I’m making a semi-serious point. I think the yearning for a wiser, older, stern but kindly male, hopefully of high social status, is probably a human universal when it comes to Criteria for Good Doctors.
It’s the same with airline pilots. It’s always subliminally reassuring when you hear the voice over the plane PA and its a gravelly voiced fifty-something male with obvious education… I bet even feminists feel this reflex, inadvertently.
Racially I suspect people will always prefer doctors of their own race. i.e. Brits want those 50-something Edinburgh Doctors, the Japanese want a fifty something graduate of Kyoto University.
Apart from lawyers. Everyone wants a Jewish lawyer.
Anyway - ! - I wonder if this translates into politics. To reiterate Alex’s point: just as some people will get chippy about Cameron’s poshness, there may well be millions who find it covertly, or overtly, reassuring, for deep psychic reasons. All societies tend towards monarchy…
105 - but this is reinforced by the way people speak. Hague added a RP polish to his South Yorkshire accent; Blair slackened his posher tones to a bizarre Mockney.
107 - “Anyway - ! - I wonder if this translates into politics. ” - see 104
109 - You mean posh and Scottish. Oh dear…
Never mind doctors who are Owen / Fox types, what about Jenny Tonge?
107 - I think the 50something English male doctor has got complacent in recent years and is living off his reputation. Too much interfering with patients innappropriately and sending people to jail for spurious reasons etc. Indian doctors, always of extremely high social status, descended from the upper castes, are surely the future.
People get a false idea about posh - Heath, Thatcher, Major, Hague and Howard all became Tory leaders from a state school background. Plenty of other state school educated politicians come across as “posh” - Portillo, Hilary Benn…
Never mind Blair’s mockney, what about Ruth Kelly?
107 - Isn’t it more accurate to say that societies tend towards dictatorship, and dictators tend towards making provisions for their children?
107 seanT - The Queen gives off a “duty” vibe. Cameron gives off a slight “sense of entitlement” vibe.
Sometimes I read women prefer women doctors.
You don’t want a Jewish doctor?
113 - Hilary Benn is an aristocrat. It’s hardly surprising he comes across as posh!
I don’t think it matters that Cameron is “posh”. I don’t think it damages the Tories too much. The general public would rather be led by a Sgt Wilson (Cameron) than a Private Walker (say Andrew Rosindell, David Amess).
117 - what of Mainwaring?
114. You jest - but it’s an important point. Monarchy is the default option of human society. Even the great republics - France, Americs - surround their leaders with the pomp and circumstance of monarchy.
This is probably evolutionary. It goes back to tribal chiefs, even the alpha male in primate troops.
So.. Cameron may be an irritating Hooray at time, but this is not a crippling problem. Deep down, people are quite fond of poshness in their leaders. Bush and Kerry were both members of Skull and Bones at Yale…
I guess the next Labour leader will be Private Frazer, and the Lib Dems are led by Private Godfrey.
Mainwaring is what all parties would like to be led by. A local state school lad made good. John Major if you like.
121. But Major was a freaking disaster. And I speak as a local state school lad done good, ish.
121. So the woman ATP warden (E Currie) DID bonk Capn. Mainwaring!
Surely Private ‘We’re all doomed’ Frazer is John Reid and Pike is David Miliband then?
Who is Private Walker?
125 -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_Joe_Walker
The awful ARP air raid bloke, meddling and pedantic, must be Patricia Hewitt.
125. A.Milburn esq.
Maude just mentioned ‘Private Frazer’.
I’m getting even more paranoid now!
Apparently we’re wrong. Private Frazer has just been taken by Francis Maude.
*Fraser
I will annoy one or two, but this Eton thing.
In my experience you can get away with being at Eton, if you are Labour or Liberal, people think you have a sort of social conscience. However for a Conservative it is very difficult and you are open to all sort of remarks, snobbish, lardy dah, doesn’t know what it is to struggle, etc etc. Unfair and harsh. perhaps, but reality. I thought it would be a burden for DC to carry before he was selected, even more convinced now. Does not say he cannot win though, but it make it that much more difficult.
David Davis mention http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2382786_2,00.html
Bet David Davis wishes he’d made something more like this speech last year
Sounds like the Times was slightly misbriefed. Even if they were talking about Davis’ speech tomorrow.
Cameron on the ‘God thing’ he was asked about it and I remember him saying, He hadn’t gone to church enough, and felt that was a mistake. The ‘God thing’ has never been big with me, in fact I’m somewhat suspicious when party leaders play that card. When the door bell rings and its any of the God squad, I sometimes like to quote from Richard Dawkins or, ‘Good people will always do good, bad people will always do bad, but the best way to get good people to do bad is give ‘em religion’ really upsets them that: stand by here comes the flak.
We, at the Conservative Campaign for Compassion, against Corruption truly believe David Cameron when he ways he wants to break with the tragic elements of the Conservative Party’s past, and re-introduce responsibility and compassion to British society.
But, we want his actions to match his words.
It is for that reason that we have addressed an open letter to David Cameron, inviting him to take responsibility for the past Conservative Arms Corruption, and to have the courage to break with that past, by annulling those of his recent appointments which would revive Tory Arms Corruption upon the election of a new Conservative Government.
Here is that letter:
“Dear David,
I write as an expatriate, but as one who spent some ten years working with the Conservative Party, at the highest level, and as one who still regards himself as a Tory loyalist.
I believe you when you say you wish truly to modernise the Party; but I also believe that you can only offer the Party as the future when you have first taken care of the past.
I attach a copy of my book, Dead Men Don’t Eat Lunch ( http://www.lulu.com/content/384105 ). You can find a summary of its findings at: http://www.conservativecampaign.com/tory_arms_corruption.php
I invite you to address the following three challenges at this week’s Party Conference:-
1. Come clean about the allegations in the book. Namely that the Conservative Governments of 1979-1997 instituted a systemic regime of arms corruption in Whitehall and Westminster, that has had an ongoing and distorting influence upon its successor New Labour administration, and upon the internal workings of the Conservative Party itself.
2. Agree to do the right thing by the families of Hugh John Simmonds, CBE and Dr. David Kelly, CB. In their different ways, they were both servants of their respective Governments, who died as a consequence of knowing too much about arms corruption. Their families deserve better. At the very least, they deserve to know the truth. Call for the re-opening of their respective Coroners’ Inquiries.
3. Dismantle the apparatus that you have already put in place, which, whether you know it or not, has the fullest intention of reviving Tory arms corruption when the Conservatives return to power. As a first step, immediately annul the appointments of Michael Ashcroft, Alan Duncan, Julian Lewis and Gerald Howarth to their respective Party and Front Bench positions.
David, you have a wonderful opportunity to show that you are, indeed, a different sort of politician. One who truly stands shoulder to shoulder with ordinary people, against forces that would wantonly distort their everyday lives. Break the mould, David.
You are the same age now that Hugh Simmonds was when he died so unnecessarily in 1988. Show the world that you have the mettle to stand up to the corrupting influences in the British body politic.
Help those families who have no reason to hurt, but who hurt nonetheless, because of the callous actions of those corrupting influences. Show your country that you stand at the head of a Party, which not only talks the talk, but walks the walk, when it comes to conservative compassion.
Take a stand, David. Modernise all of the Conservative Party. Take it away from its dishonourable past, and into a future of genuine honesty and compassion.”
If there is nothing to hide, then David Cameron will not hide. Clever side-stepping, from an accomplished PR man, will be hiding.
P. Geoffrey Gilson/Conservative Campaign Against Corruption
136. The Dawkins quote is piffle masquerading as insight. Like much of his opinion of religion.
When it comes to Richard Dawkins on God, I am strongly reminded of the Orwell quote: “He was an embittered atheist, the sort of atheist who does not so much disbelieve in God as personally dislike Him.”
137 - Bloody Royal Mail! Never deliver to the right house
An embittered atheist who doesn’t so much as disbelieve in God
as personally dislikes him, (how do you know its a him?) yep sounds like me. Still I’m not the sort who’ll ever fly an aeroplane into a skyscraper.
David Davis or John McCain? It’s a tricky one
Austria elections
First forecast predicts a close race for first place.
132 - I think you’ve hit the nail on the head there. This article by Dominic Lawson explores the issue. I don’t agree with his conclusion, but this particular quote, from another OE, is illuminating:
137 - I think you’re swimming against the tide with that.
If the approach Labour will use is down the line of attacking Cameron and Osbourne for being ‘posh’ then it will fail. It has all the resonance of the attacks of Tony Blair being attacked for sending his son to a ‘posh’ school. It is totally irrelevant to the public’s perception, and will bounce of Cameron just like similar attacks bounced off Blair.
I totally agree with Mike about Cameron’s opponenets trying to drive the wedge between him and his party, but what is clear from the Labour conference is they have not understood this, as requires being nice about Cameron, and they just cannot bring themselves to do it, just as Tories could not bring themselves to say anything nice about Blair pre 1997.
As for God, Cameron needs to stay away from this one, God being introduced into Conservative politics can only lead to disaster, a disaster many Tories would love to bring about as they don’t understand the consequences. Maybe this is another road Labour might be able to stir up, if they ever get to grips with understanding how they can deal with Cameron.
Just watched John Mcain, what he really seemed to be saying was, thanks Tony Blair for your support, fully expect David Cameron to be even more supportive in the war on terror: agree!
What were the Tories thinking about when they invited John McCain? Bill Clinton he isn’t but wouldn’t it have been appropriate for someone to tell him that the Conservatives are not the government at the moment?
45 - I read McCain’s speech as saying ‘please can I be president?’.
Reminded me of IDS, I know it’s not his home ground but Hague looked like a leviathan compared to him (Hague was great value as usual).
138. Shaun, Why is it piffle? Is it not logical that good people will generally do good and bad people will generally do bad and that occasionally people who are good are brainwashed into doing something really really evil. Do we not have plenty of evidence that there are lunatic groups claiming to be Christian, Islamic, or whatever, who do truely evil things for their misguided beliefs. I can’t say that I have ever heard of an extreme atheist sect! That really would be bizarre.
‘Arms corruption’ Jesus, get with the real world….
Hasn’t anyone noticed that the Arctic Monkey’s actually aren’t that good?
147 - To be fair you can’t just take what the current conventional wisdom of the public speaking requirements of British leaders are and translate them abroad. Remember when Schroder came to the Labour conference and gave a speech in German? Not sure that would win too many elections here
Cameron`s perception is quite limp wristed, wonder if this is what is