Dear Mr Betfair: a Deputy leadership market please
October 6th, 2006-
Why can’t we bet on Labour’s other battle?
The overnight headlines following Jack Straw’s comments about Muslim women wearing the veil has fueled further speculation about the Deputy Leadership chances of the former Foreign Secretary and leader of the House, Jack Straw.
Were his comments, which he must have realised would attract the big headlines, part of his plan to raise his profile ahead of next year’s election to choose John Prescott’s succession? He’s quoted as saying that before going public he “chose his words very carefully” and it has certainly caused huge interest and a big response.
But everything any senior Labour politician does at the moment is looked at in terms of the coming leadership elections and this is no exception. Could Straw be putting a marker down for Prescott’s job as well as getting his name into the frame should something happen to Gordon?
Certainly that’s how some punters are seeing the move. His Betfair leadership price dropped from 150/1 to 54/1 at the news. If something happened to Gordon or his bid then Straw would, surely, be a possible challenger?
What’s missing at the moment is a market on the Deputy Leadership. One or two bookmakers have put their toes into the water but overnight I checked through the sites of the eighteen leading online bookmakers and exchanges and could not find a single one taking deputy leadership bets.
Quite why this has not been featured I do not know. One of the reasons we’ve not covered the suggestion that the Dagenham MP, Jon Cruddas, might be running is that there has been no 24/7 market to link to. I know a number of people, including myself, have asked Betfair to open a market. So far nothing has happened. Let’s keep up the pressure.
For long terms bets like this most serious punters use the betting exchanges because you can opt in and out and make trading profits on price changes. You can also see precisely how much money is being traded. Some of the apparent big price moves in markets without much liquidity are based on one punter putting as little as £20 on.
Ladbrokes, meanwhile, is now taking “anybody but Brown” bets. The current price is 7/4 which is about the same as the Betfair “lay” Brown price.
Mike Smithson
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As a further refinement, what wonder what price they’d offer on Straw winning the deputy leadership but then losing his seat
PS - Reid / Straw has got to be the dream ticket
This in the Independent.
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article1813590.ece
Well we got to post three before the first off topic post. Do people even read what Mike has spent time writing?
Back on topic, I’d be more likely to expend money on a dep. leader market now, I’m pretty happy with my position on the leader and there’s little change going on so I’m holding firm with that one.
Mike
I wrote to Betfair about a week ago and they said they would think about it. Time for a reminder?
4. Spot the schoolteacher!
I have absolutely no doubt that if something so terrible happened to Gordon that he was forced to withdraw from the race, Straw would stand for the leadership in his stead. Otherwise, I just can’t see it.
There’s the re-run of the live coverage of the 1983 election on BBC Parliament right now. I’m amazed - they got their exit poll prediction spot on, a Tory majority of 146!
5live are saying that the Conservatives have slammed Straw`s stance on the veil issue - you couldn`t make it up …
I entirely endorse Jack Straw on this one.
8. Bethnal Green expected to declare at around 2 AM
What Jack actually says is, ‘Fatima slip off your veil, now slip off your….’ no he doesn’t made that up honest. Hope the fatwah isn’t in the post.
A bad night for the Conservatives .
Eden DC Penrith Carleton LibDem hold LibDem 223 Con 189 - 2003 LibDem Unopposed
Ellesmere Port DC Little Neston Lab gain from Con Lab 420 Con 386 LibDem 81 - 2004 result Con 533 Lab 500 LibDem 212 Green 157 . Turnout very low
Charnwood DC Loughborough Shelthorpe Lab hold - 2003 result Lab 643 BNP 478 Con 386 LibDem 155 - 2003 result 2 seats Lab 508/501 Con 404/386 . Much increased turnout .
11 Andrea. Sorry Andrea, I voted for St.Albans new Conservative candidate Peter Lilley. He faces a determined challenge from the Alliance. Indeed I was accosted by a tall RAF type called Rik in St.Peters Street. What a nice young man. I do feel he’s in the wrong party somehow !!
Mind you, I did have second thoughts about this Lilley chap after he started singing at a candidates meeting !!
14. Jack, they gave the seats recap after 1 declaration….well, it’s not that watchers were so hopeless not to work it out.
13. Good results for Labour
I think a deputy leader’s market would be very interesting indeed - lots of scope for large movements and the switching around of favourites. I’ve e-mailed Betfair this morning requesting one.
15. Andrea, what’s this Inquisition business?
I had no idea there was an Italian Inquisition. Presumably it works the same way as the Spanish one but with better food?
Interesting article as usual Mike. I had not thought of these comments in terms of any leadership bid. Frankely I think Norman Tebbit has got a better chance of leading the Labour party, but I may of course be wrong.
17. Peter, the Punter. Yesterday I was advised here to start a career in the Inquisition…I was actually searching a little job and so I said “why not?”
13. I should imagine DC will have resigned by noon.
RE 10, RikW I don’t. If a woman wants to wear something when seeing their MP then why not provided it does not infringe indecency laws, and I do not think the viel counts.
17 Peter P. And the Italian Inquisition dress far better. You simply can’t stylishly turn the rack in anything other than Versace or Gucci …. Prada is so last torture season !!
21 .How would Jack Ashley have coped …
Comments on the latest polls by Prof. Curtice in todays Independent are not exactly good news, for the Tories. Odds on Mogg the Pompous taking N.E.Somerset from Labour? might be worth a bet given his latest comments on state school pupils: the Labour candidate must think its xmas day already.
I’m still reeling from the discovery that my office building of six years in Windsor has become the centre for ‘race rioting’, according to Newsnight.
I vacated it when I got selected in Torbay and the landlord then sold it to some Muslim businessmen who already owned the Dairy opposite.
Now I gather their decision to turn it into a muslim learning centre has caused ‘riots’.
The joke is that we used to call the road (Shirley Avenue) Beiruit High Street because barely a morning passed when there wasn’t a burned out car, or full crime investigation squad there. The neighbourhood is so rough we had bars on the windows and a full security railing erected - just to protect us during the day when we were there!
The broken window shown on Newsnight was my actual office window, and I can tell you that it looked like that (broken) about four times a year.
I complained frequently about the lack of police presence in the area and I am not surprised the Asians who owned the dairy have had to make their own security arrangements.
The way the BBC have hyped this into a racial incident is disgraceful.
22. LOL! Yes I can see the Italian inquisition would be preferable. Every bit as painful but far more stylish.
Febrile times. Jack Straw says something or nothing and he becomes the headlines on all the news stations. A poll apparently showed 97% support for what he said. Like John Reid it could have single handedly propelled him from nowhere to contender.
I’m listening to a phone-in and becoming a little shocked how illiberal most people seem to be. I wonder whether Cameron might have read the tea leaves wrongly? Perhaps he’s moved into the center when everyone else has moved to the right? The next polls-if they’re bad- could have very interesting consequences for him
On a more serious note Andrea, have you never thought of writing a Guest Spot piece for PB? An Italian take on British Politics would be very interesting.
It would also interest me to know how you manage to cope with the peculiar linguistic habits of PBers, not to mention the weird and anarchic wit of some of our regulars. Even I can’t follow it sometimes and I’m a native!
Will Hill have an online market, but it only seems to operate in working hours (which is why you wouldn’t have found it overnight) and they often take it down for days at a time.
We’ll be covering the deputy leadership race and the changing odds over at The Daily - last post on it here:
http://thedaily.wordpress.com/2006/10/02/new-deputy-leadership-odds/
It’s an interesting market - given the wide variations in odds over time and between different bookies (Ladbrokes taking bets by phone) there should be plenty of chances to hedge.
RE 27 Roger, Empty vessels make the loudest noise.
It is always the head bangers you here.
28. “It would also interest me to know how you manage to cope with the peculiar linguistic habits of PBers, not to mention the weird and anarchic wit of some of our regulars. Even I can’t follow it sometimes and I’m a native”
Peter, infact I sometimes have trouble to understand some comments (it’s not that I’m able to understand all seant posts
). And I sometimes fail to catch jokes too.
Btw, Sunderland was a bit slow at the time.
Lab Leadership race update on b/f
GB 1.54 (Someone is pretty confidently putting up volume £ lays)
JR 8.6 (not much movement)
AJ 10.5 (ditto)
DMilliband 23 (some nibbles taken)
Hilary Benn 36 (see above)
J Straw 55 (in from 100)
25 Marcus. Do you think young Bennett will fend of the Alliance in Torbay. I’m hearing his majority of 20,000 will be severely reduced !!
What’s the world coming to …. they’re even saying that in my lifetime that the Liberals will take Torbay and that Cabinet Ministers will want to determine what women wear. What claptrap !!
25. You lived in Windsor Marcus? Did you hear about the American business woman who shortly after take-off from Heathrow looked out of her plane window and asked the stewardess,
“what’s that building down there?
“That’s Windsor castle where the Queen lives”
“Wow. Fancy building it so close to the airport”
13. Is the good BNP result in the Charnwood ward expected or is it a suprise?
I do not think it’s illiberal to dislike the way women are treated in the name of religion, in the way that Muslim women are treated. in fact the opposite. I remember forty years ago as a young man in the middle east seeing a woman, covered in black cloth in temperatures of over 45 deg C struggling to keep up with her husband, who turned around and kicked her. This imposed dress is responsible for many health problems, for women in those temperatures. I am 100% for Jack Straw’s statement how long are we in the West going to be dictated to by people who do all sorts of obnoxious things to their women, in the name of religion. It has taken us hundreds of years to throw of the yoke that religion put upon us. Why do we stand by and say its ok its their religion:arse.
Roger, I lived and worked in Windsor/Slough/Maidenhead up to 2003 when I got selected and moved to Torbay.
Every time I used to visit the States on business and tell them where I lived they used to say “Gee, does that mean the Queen of England is your neighbour?”
I always felt like saying, “Yeah and I wish she’d keep those damn Corgi’s quiet at night”
Hill’s have odds on Deputy Leader here, but they seem to be quick to suspend them in the evenings.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO1408965
Top 8 prices
Benn (H!) 11/4
Hain 3/1
Johnson 7/2
Cruddas 8/1
Jowell 9/1
Miliband 10/1
Straw 12/1
Harman 14/1
I think the interesting features of this market is that Harman has drifted and is a bigger price than Jowell despite having declared. Hain has eased out a little and Benn has moved in, again despite declaring.
Cruddas has been backed in from a crazy price and now seems a contender at 8s. Miliband is a small price at 10s since he has no base in the party and has publicly declared several times he will not be standing for either leader or deputy leader.
Straw is an interesting option at 12s but I can’t see too much backing for him in the labour movement, though no doubt he’ll get some good headlines from the right-wing media.
38.”I think the interesting features of this market is that Harman has drifted and is a bigger price than Jowell despite having declared”
So it seems that it’s between Harman and Jowell for the female candidate place….can Blears think to have a go (in the sense of looking around to see if she has support) or not?
I would offer an opinion that not all Labour supporters are liberal and tolerant of ethnic minorities, I suspect many rank and file labour supporters are downright hostile to immigration, and ‘rightwing’ on crime. After all many of them are at the cutting edge. The Telegraph piece yesterday about french police complaining of an intifada in many of their cities and no-go areas is something that may soon happen here. John Reid and Jack Straw are wise to this fact.
39. Blears is one of those marmite politicians that evokes strong responses of derision or admiration. I think the weaknesses of Jowell and Harman is that they’re all ‘very London’ so being from the North West would work. Plus both Harman or Jowell may suffer from their spouses!
30. I’m not sure. I’m getting a sense that people aren’t happy and not just the usual ranters. Quite a few Muslims seem to have doubts. From my knowledge of genuine religious fundamentalists who are devout above all dislike having the spotlight on them. People fear what they don’t understand. If you go to Stamford Hill in London or Prestwich in Manchester you’ll think you’ve been transported to 18th Century Russia. The reason the veiled Muslims are targeted is only that they are the most visible
40. You are right to some extent, but there’s a difference between the importance of labour supporters and paid up members of the party and its affiliates.
This is all about the deputy leadership election and I think that members and paid up trade unionists are more tolerant and socially liberal than ‘labour supporters’ generally. Unless Patricia Hewitt gets her way, the latter may not have a huge say, though no doubt there will be polling in the following months express the views and preferences of supporters. To be honest though, what labour voters think of the new leader (and PM) is going to is infinately more important that the choice deputy, particularly if he/she is not DPM.
Can you explain why 18th Century Russia?
Quick commment on last night’s elections, the lack of a green candidate and the collapse of the lib dem vote seems to have helped labour in Ellesmere Port, the green vote nationally does seem to be rising and it seems strange that they couldn’t find a candidate for what looked like a promising ward. Regarding Charnwood the story is the BNP unfortunately. Does anyone know what this area is like? Is it typical of those with high BNP results or are they spreading their appeal more?
re 13 Yuk 478 people within a mile or so of my mother’s home have voted BNP. I feel a bit sick.
In the bigger picture, I wouldn’t have thought the Tories will be too happy with recent by-election results.
44 - An super Oxford entrance exam question!
Just seen John Lee win Pendle for the Tories. What will become of him I wonder?
Can’t see him joining the Liberals…
13, overall that gives the national socialists an average 19% of the vote in four contests over the past fortnight.
44 Hasidic Jews wear the dress of eighteenth century (I think Polish) noblemen.
42 Roger there are more orthodox Jews than Muslims in Prestwich though the same basic premise applies. The current labour and previous tory MPs for Bury South which covers Prestwich are both high profile Jews.
45 A friend of mine who knows the area well says its very similar socially to places like the Becontree Estate, Harold Hill, Loughton, and Hainault.
45
The main town of Charnwood is Loughborough, the area around is beautiful wolds countryside, with many expensive villages. The area has been traditionally Labour I think. I think the main reason for the increase in BNP vote was the recent opening of an immigrant centre in the middle of Loughborough. I have not been into the town since it was opened, but if there are large numbers of immigrants hanging around the town centre, this will surely be a reason.
44. In the same way that many British Muslims some-second third or fourth generation British-have chosen a lifestyle that they believe takes them as close as possible to their religious roots so have many Ultra Orthodox Jews. Many Ashkenazi’s came from Russia at the turn of the century and have chosen a form of fundamentalism which they think is best represented by assuming the appearance of their forefathers. Many are the sons and daughters of totally lapsed Jews.
48 - He became a failed politician
Loughborough is also of course a large University town, and as such you would think be more open minded and liberal.
Adam Rickitt is in the long list for Mid Norfolk. Interviews will take place in the weekend and the candidate will be selected on October 21th
54 VoiceftSW. They all do !!
People come to this country from all of the world, good, I can understand that, I live here and I can understand why other people want to do so as well. They are all races they are all religions, I don’t have a problem. Hindu’s no problem, Sikh’s no problem, Buddists no problem, why is it we only have a problem with Muslims. The British people are having their tolerence pushed to the limit, where the only political party that is going to benefit is the BNP. I will ask Marcus Wood this, go down to Foxhole, go down to Hele, Torbay isn’t all wide avenues and big houses, (if you don’t know where they are Marcus I can give your directions). Go there Marcus ask the people there whether they agree with Jack Straw or not bet you won’t find too many who don’t. This is not about immigration it is not about race, it is about people who put their religion above everything else, even their loyalty to the country, that has given most of them a good home. Yes many moslems have problems, yes many of them have been subject to discrimination all of those things hopefully we can both understand and solve. If some of them think living in a Moslem society is that important, then I suggest, that on the first Monday of every month, the British Government puts a 747 at Heathrow Airport all free and any Moslem who wishes to do so, no questions asked, can board that aircraft it will fly them to Tehran, were I’m sure they will be much happier and so would we.
roger@27:
It’s a bit of a voodoo poll though - the selection criteria being that the participants feel strongly enough to go to the effort of phoning in, and also have the ability to do so (suspect there are few people phoning in who are currently working in shops, offices, factories, building sites, etc etc up and down the land).
burbachris@40:
Quite. Don’t forget that Bernard Manning’s staple ciruit was (and probably still is) Working Men’s Clubs in the traditional Labour heartlands.
58, I think this cuts to the problem very well.
42 & 44 Roger, I believe you have in mind the Ashkenazy Jews in which case I think they immigrated from the part of northern Europe we now call Poland in the 17th and 18th centuries.
I think I am also right in saying that the striking dress code has no religious connotations whatever but in fact reflects what was the conventional fashion at the time in the country of origin. It’s as if New Englanders were to still wear the kind of outfits favored by the Founding Fathers at the time of the Mayflower.
My secondary school was just down the road from Stamford Hill. Jewish boys outnumbered Gentiles by about 60:40. Mostly the two groups were indistinguishable. I remember that the Jewish lads often poked fun at the strangely dressed Orthodox Jews, referrimg to them as Frommers or ‘Kosher Cowboys’. As a non-Jew I would never have dared use such a derogatory term for fear that it would sound Anti-Semitic but my Jewish mates had no such inhibitions and took the p*ss with gusto.
It’s a tricky subject, full of paradoxes and contradictions. I am glad it is being aired though and it’s good that the main protagonist is somebody like JS who is unlikely to be accused of crude racism.
Comparisons are often odious and in this matter can be seriously misleading. I am sure you commented in good faith, Roger, but the Stamford Hill Jews you refer to are as a group generally financially well off, well organised and politically well-connected. I am sure they can look after themselves pretty well and to the best of my knowledge, based on fifty years of living in and around that area, they have suffered very little in the way of persecution despite a culture which appears, much by their own wishes, to segregate them from the mainstream.
I am not sure the same would apply to the kind of Muslim woman visiting Jack’s surgery - but then as I say, it’s a tricky subject.
I got bets on Johnson and Hain for the deputy leadership a year ago, can’t quite remember which company. I’ll check.
Returning to the topic, will it improve Jack Straw’s chances in any way to becoming deputy leader of the labour party? The Ann Cryers will lap it up, but he will lose just as much support in the PLP and more in the wider movement. It all sounds a bit too much like desperate throw of the dice to spark some support for his deputy leader bid. Cue Peter Hain’s reponse in the Independent on Sunday.
For what it is worth all the feedback I am getting on the Cameron speech has a clear divide. Middle class urbanites positive - working class/manual workers negative. I am sure he will get a boost in the polls but there is plenty of scepticism out there.
Andrea is one of the highlights of this site.
Re 45 ‘Shelthorpe’ is a sizeable council estate (post-war I would presume). Less diverse, less University staff/students than the rest of Loughborough. The ward goes beyond the estate to include new build - people who I am sure would never say they lives in Shelthorpe. Certaintly the estate agents wouldn’t be pointing out the proximity! Hence no longer completely safe Lab. (The Tories have held one seat in the recent past - when they put an ex-local copper. No others AFAIK.)
The potential for a racist vote is clear and I think all the main parties were taking it seriously. I know the LDs were out leafleting, without any hope of catching Lab or Tory. All would have feared a low turnout leading to a spectacular BNP result. Well done to all who helped get non-BNP votes out (including my Mum!). Nevertheless, I think the sheer size of the BNP vote will be a shock.
64. it all depends who turns out and votes though.
64, I’m an Architect, that counts as middle class professional, I think DC has already peaked. Did you see last night ‘Mock the Week’, it was pretty dismissive of Cameron and also very funny. It showed a clip of the Webcameron, it must say it was both cringing and hilarious. The comedians commented on its ‘fly on the wall’ style and many laughs were had at the thought of DC stepping from the shower and announcing policy details as he rubbed down. Hilarious!
58 coldstone. I’m somewhat reluctant to jump in again on the veil issue, having clashed last night on fashion sense with Gianni Versace’s represntative on earth - seanT.
However, there are time when parts of the nation go all weak at the knees over what others wear. To think what a tiny minority of a minority wear should have normally sensible people and even some Liberal Democrats fulminate makes one wonder if this is the same nation that saw off dear old Adolf in his prime.
Reminds me of the times when the English tried to ban the wearing of the kilt after the 45 rebellion only for George IV to go all Scottish some years later. Perhaps in the interest of diversity we’ll eeventually see Rik meandering along Sutton High Street in a veil ….. probably looking more like Darth Vadar than a Moslem women in drag !!
66- the political trajectory makes it similar to those parts of North East London I mentioned. Labour for years, then shifting towards the Conservatives, then shifting towards the BNP.
69 - banning the kilt was and is an excellent idea, as would be banning lederhosen in Bavaria (have you ever seen photos of Edward VII wearing both?)
Hear hear Jack W. I
And if there must be any campaign around clothing in the UK at the beginning of the 21st Century, can it not be against the visibility of the lethal combination of thong and hipsters! I find it hard to speak to women and take them seriously having practically seen their anus…
Jamie
I hope you didn’t take that punt on interest rates going up. Who was it who posted that they’d lost £££ on the MPC?
72, It depends on the quality of the rear end. On holiday in Capri, I saw one woman exposing a very attractive rear end. OTOH, others look like (to quote Les Dawson) sacks of clams.
Whatever happened to the Conservative runner up in Devonport?
Paddy Power have their intermittent Deputy Leader market back up, you have to go via novelty bets then politics to find it.
Cruddas and Straw both available at 16/1.
70 Sean. Ban the Kilt.
…. now that would break the Union !!
re 75 16/1 on Straw sounds attractive but I doubt he’s got enough core backing. Might be worth a punt if Betfair do get their act together, as suspect you’ll be able to hedge.
I wonder if Johnson needs to declare for Deputy. He hasn’t got any ‘mo’ for the top job and he’s in danger of falling behind in the Deputy stakes.
I listened to Jack Straw this morning and he came across very well. Amazing though that such remarks could be controversial or seen in terms of a budding leader/deputy leader bid.
61.Peter.It wasn’t a subject I particularly wanted to get into but my point was simply that the veiled Muslims are being unfairly targeted.
My sister from a totally lapsed Jewish background had a boyfriend who was converted to Ultra Orthodoxy by a young Rabbi he met at Leeds University. They now have 12 children and lead a life that would seem so bizarre to most of us that if fully understood would have ‘liberals’ up in arms.
I know that they are completely harmless and indeed very nice but any talk of assimilating with the non Orthodox population is so preposterous that only someone quite ignorant of their behavior would suggest it. I’m sure the same applies to veiled Muslims.
68 – Totally agree Jack. People should be allowed to wear as much or a little as they want.
And that includes my right to put on a thong and hipsters combo if I so choose. It’s what makes this country great.
Ugly women should be veiled.
I think this could do Straw a lot of good in the Labour Party and in the country at large. This after all is not a race issue, many on the left are suspicious of religion and its influence. They have kept quiet on the Islamic issue because it seemed to close to racism. Many are now beginning to divide it off. After all if you are a left-wing feminist can you support the Islamic attitude to women. If you are opposed to censorship can you support, fatwah’s. Even though I’m not his greatest fan, Kilroy Silk his criticism of Islamic nations, was it really that wrong. The left in this country, here I mean the intellectual left, had better start sorting itself out, it has opposed capital punishment, barbaric treatment of offenders, the suppression of women,in our own society how can it not oppose it in others. Columnists like Nik Cohen, David Aaronovitch etc are in the vanguard in exposing the hypocrisy of those who would fight tooth and nail against those things if they were practiced here, its time for all right thinking people in this country to support them. Whats wrong is wrong, because its done in the name of religion doesn’t make it right. The British wiped out suttee, in India offending Hindu’s were we wrong to do that? When a delegation a Hindu notables went to see the general in charge of ensuring suttee was wiped out to complain, saying it was an old Hindu custom his answer, ‘If I catch any one doing it, I’ll introduce you to an old British custom, it’s called the gallows’
81 - back to the Tory runner up in Devonport…
The 1983 election result was bad enoguh the first time around: so many votes, so few seats.
To restore your spirits the Tories managed a few gaffes this week. Liberal Review has a poll and a round up to help you choose the best (or worst) of the lot.
poll
http://www.liberalreview.com/content/2006/10/vote-for-the-tory-gaffe-of-the-week
and story
http://www.liberalreview.com/content/2006/10/tory-gaffe-of-the-week
Just for fun of course.
82 - Bang on!
79. Nor did I particularly. Its complexity is such that normally I wouldn’t be happy discussing it outside company that knows me well and is therefore unlikely to misconstrue my words or motives. But let me be provocative for a moment.
Perhaps they are being *fairly* targetted. If you dress outside the conventions of the society in which you live, are you not in some way obliged to explain yourself? If the explanation has some religious basis, tolerant people will be interested and happy to make reasonable allowance. Even if there is no explanation other than eccentricity or an expression of individuality, a few words towards a healthy debate on the subject would be helpful.
And an understanding of the other side by parties would not go amiss. JS would not I am sure insist on the removal of veils at his surgery. However, his *request* on the grounds that ‘if you can see my face why shouldn’t I see yours’ is a perfectly reasonable one and if it is declined, for no apparent good reason, isn’t that an indication of a certain disrespect.
Tricky area indeed, eh Roger?
Shirley Williams loses Crosby for the SDP!
I think if Straw was serious about looking at issues of integration, then why not something more pertinent issue such as the rise faith schools under this Government. Or perhaps housing and the ghettoisation of certain poor communities on ethnic lines.
Instead he chooses something so personal to some Muslim women thereby implying cultural and racial problem is more pathological and has no reference to wider society. The logic is that if they looked less muslim there’d be less problems. If he felt so strongly on the issue of the veil, he should have raised it during the general election last year when he was seeking for votes in this multicultural seat. After all Muslim women wearing veils is hardly a new development.
Soft target, cheap and cynical politics from the Straw man.
Mark Oaten to This is Hampshire:
“Belinda’s been on a tank, and we’ve been talking to the troops, it’s all very friendly”
Can we blame the Oatens for the coup?!
over the Pond, projections are showing 50 Democratic Senators and tiny Dem majority in House. I cannot see it myself. But at least there’s hope.
Coldstone at 58 “I will ask Marcus Wood this, go down to Foxhole, go down to Hele, Torbay isn’t all wide avenues and big houses, (if you don’t know where they are Marcus I can give your directions). Go there Marcus ask the people there whether they agree with Jack Straw or not bet you won’t find too many who don’t.”
Sadly you are probably right. The awful fact is that the people who seem to have the biggest beef about immigrants are people who don’t live near any.
Torbay has one of the lowest ethnic contents anywhere in the UK yet we have an active BNP, very successful UKIP and lots of people holding views like you, Coldstone, which are easily whipped up by politicians looking for easy votes.
Extremism, intolerance and totalitarianism is the enemy of a free society like ours, you seem to be Daily Mail style tarring all Muslims because some of them are extremists.
And you call yourself a Liberal Democrat!!
The BNP usually get their biggest votes in places that have large numbers of people from ethnic minorities close by, Marcus. Places that really do have very little contact with ethnic minorities rarely have BNP support of any significance.
Re the veil - I think the lady on Newsnight spoke a lot of sense on this. The veil is not a big issue for muslim women, indeed some take to wear it for defensive purposes because they feel threatened [as an aside my wife, who has Aspergers, has often said that she would rather wear the burka/veil, so that she didn’t have to feel that people were watching her all the time, but is worried that it’s not “socially acceptable” to do so].
The more important issue is the way that some men in muslim communities are using religion as an excuse to do the sorts of things that some men of all communities try to do. She used the example of barring women from Mosques.
By attacking the veil, Straw is playing a populist line for the 92% of the UK population which is white and not affected in any way, and actually making it harder for moderate and feminist muslims to win the battle against the misogynists and hardliners. It’s a very retrograde step, but unfortunately I think it can only be good for Straw.
72. Not me !
80. Max in hipsters !!
No !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hoisted by my own petard, whilst Max is hoisted by his thong !!
…………….
81 Sean F. “Ugly women should be veiled.”
Off to Maidstone in the near future Sean ???
re 94. I think it might have been Icarus, which would be a surprise. I’ve avoided any MPC defeats, though was damn lucky in August when I half-heartedly hedged my bet that there would be no change.
I don’t know what happened to the Tory candidate in Devenport but I know that the Labour candidate, Julian Priestley, the grandson of JB Priestley, is the head of the nonpolitical staff in the European Parliament. The irony being that this was a political appointment!
Well first of all Marcus at 91 I have never said I’m a Liberal Democrat. If you read my ‘rant’ carefully you will find there is general support for immigration, there is not a hint of racism. I am a supporter of the multi-cultural society what I am not a supporter of, is suppression ,disguised as religion. As for the Daily Mail if some of the people who know me saw that they would be laughing themselves into a coma. My instincts, such as they are are to the left, my sympathies not totally. Let me give you a for instance, I once joined the Labour Party, (it was not a happy experience) we were discussing once why we were in the Labour Party, my answer, despite all of its obvious flaws I felt the Labour Party had its heart in the right place (its head well who knows) and it had a concern to improve the lot of people who didn’t have much and hopefully help them get a bit more. One of my comrades Janice, nice girl, said she was in the Labour Party to advance the cause of sexual politics. she was a female homosexual, (no problem with it) My answer ‘So thats it, when we get onto the council estates, we’ll open our spiel with, Do you realise that the first thing an incoming Labour government will do will be to remove vat off dildos’ I didn’t stay in the Labour Party long after that. It’s nice to know reading your response, that the Labour Party does not have a monopoly on cretins, You Marcus have as much chance of taking that seat for the Tories, as I do of standing on Berry Head and pissing to Jersey.
97.”I don’t know what happened to the Tory candidate in Devenport ”
You certainly know what happened to the Tory candidate: Mrs Ann Doreen Widdecombe
‘So thats it, when we get onto the council estates, we’ll open our spiel with, Do you realise that the first thing an incoming Labour government will do will be to remove vat off dildos’
Well, that’s a conversation-stopper!
100.”‘So thats it, when we get onto the council estates, we’ll open our spiel with, Do you realise that the first thing an incoming Labour government will do will be to remove vat off dildos’”
Not sure if they removed the VAT from dildos, but they did it with condoms after a campaign supported by many Labour, Libdem and Plaid Cymru MPs
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=28979&SESSION=875
No tories signed that EDM.
98- did she reply with a horrified
” 2,4,6,8 we dont want to penetrate !”
100. Conversation stopper? oh, I dunno -it ought to provoke a large (some would say mass) debate with a fair old buzz to it. and if they didn’t like the policy, the could go **** themselves.
58-coldstone
‘If some of them think living in a Moslem society is that important, then I suggest, that on the first Monday of every month, the British Government puts a 747 at Heathrow Airport all free and any Moslem who wishes to do so, no questions asked, can board that aircraft it will fly them to Tehran, were I’m sure they will be much happier and so would we.’
No freedom of speech or generous benefits system plus loss of minority status in Tehran,plus shia / sunnie issue so probably no take up of for your flight offer.
I think the scraping of faith schools and adherence to school uniforms policy would be a step in the right direction.
Milliband into 16s.. something afoot ?
69. Well said, Jack. Uncomfortably, there have been a few ‘liberals’ on this site this morning defending Straw’s ill-judged - some might say inflammatory - comments. I can only imagine the outrage if Michael Howard had said… But no. Jack is such a lovely chap he can only be speaking with wisdom and the noblest of intentions, so lets revisit our previously held notions that in a free society people ought not to be harassed into conforming to a dress code, and demand that those irresponsible Muslim women stop making us aboriginals feel uncomfortable when we pass them on Langley High Street, let alone give Jack the jitters when they come to his surgery for help with their tax credit overpayments. Perhaps in a few days Doc Reid could order the entire population to wear Mao-suits. Problem solved.
105 Jamie. Not too much liquidity in the market so smallish amounts can skew the market somewhat.
Having said that, the Deputy market is a more interesting contest, indeed at least a contest, difficult presently to read the political runes. I’m staying out of the market for the present.
PC Basha, excused from protecting the Israeli Embassy for moral reasons was married by the extremist cleric Sheikh Omar Bakri Mohammad.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2391571,00.html
PC Basha’s boss is Met Commissioner Ian Blair, of the Blair Clan, hired by Tony Blair, of the Blair Clan.
107 £1k bet over last 2 days - not that small
108
Its like the ID card debate all over again,first we need them for anti terrorist reasons,when that doesn’t wash we need them for immigration control and when that’s kicked out the window we need them to stop benefit fraud.
The first excuse dished up was PC Basha was excused for moral reasons,which then changed to safety reasons and changed again because he had family living in the Middle East.The hope is that if you make up enough excuses the public may accept some.
Coldstone, you clearly get the red mist whenever I post or reply to you so the possibility of a reasoned debate is nil.
I am amazed that someone who considers themselves to the left of centre should demonstrate such a bigoted attitute - you haven’t addressed my central point which is that your rant against Muslims is unfair and predjudiced, and unacceptable, because you assume all Muslims have extreme views and this is just not true.
But then your willingness to assume that because I am a Conservative I must live in a big house and not know the poorer areas of Torbay is equally bigoted and narrow minded.
On the evidence of your posts today it’s hardly surprising the Labour Party and you failed to get on.
Will Muslim women be allowed to wear veils when they go to Boris Johnson’s surgery?
108/110 PeterPicker/john. PC Basha was correctly removed for operational reasons after an admitedly late risk assessment.
Neither is there a “Blair Clan”.
No Marcus, the reason Colstone gets the red mist, is because liberal issues such as freedom of speech and equal rights are abused by ’some’ within the Islamic community. He is also perplexed by those ‘intelectuals on the left’ who have rammed these issues down our throats for 40 years who now dare not utter a word against those same said ’some’ for fear of offending them.
WRT PC Basha, I would have thought that the risks faced by a Catholic RUC officer would have been vastly greater.
112 Valerie. I think we should draw a veil over what Boris and his women get upto down Henley way !
113
Apologies, I forgot the fourth excuse was operational reasons.
110. Oh come off it Jack W, surely you don’t really believe that.
114. Perhaps Coldstone can step forward as Britain’s answer to Pim Fortuyn and delight SeanT…
115 Sean F. That’s a valid point Sean.
Indeed during my period in Ulster great care was taken over the placement of Catholic officers. Further I had to regularly undertake risk assessments for my own men for the same reasons. It’s simple man management that a commander doesn’t place his subordinates in undue danger unless the operational imperative demands.
117/118 john/PM. See 120. Further I’d rather believe those closest to the facts than the “Sun” newspaper.
Coldstone’s story [82] has perhaps a stronger resonance than he realises. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of Muslims in Britain is not how they dress or anything else they do - but what they don’t do… they don’t make any efforts to convert the indigenous population. This has been true for as long as there have been Muslims here. The first mosque in England, in Surrey (? Woking) was built with money donated by an Indian prince for the conversion of England - it was attended by retired officers’ servants and those who ran it wanted to keep it as a cultural as much as a religious institution.
This is the worm at the heart of the rose. Many years ago a Muslim friend told me “it is foolish to immigrate, it is wise to conquer” - that idea is at the heart of the Muslim world-view. Many Muslims believe that they can’t practice their religion in a secular State - they can only go through the motions (remember the partition of the sub-continent).
When Muslims adopt the most conservative interpretation possible of their own scriptures, they do it in full knowledge of its effect on the rest of us. And one reason they do it, as my friend also said, is because they have studied the history of Christianity - the western world is post-Christian, and they have no wish to become post-Islamic (as they see it).
They’re in a helluva fix: for religious reasons, they need England (or Britain) to become part of the Ummah, but culturally they’d be even more insecure than they are to-day.
121. But why all the changes of story Jack W? if it was really a normal procedural matter, why not say so at the start instead of making up the line about ‘moral reasons’ then altering the excuse when people objected?
NEW THREAD
123 PM. The story was leaked to the “Sun” from within the Met incorrectly for “moral” reasons.
This officer has previously served outside the Israeli Embassy without difficulty. However the heightening of the Lebanon situation and the nature of his own family - Lebanese wife and Syrian father - changed the security situation and PC Basha requested a review. Indeed this review should have taken place earlier.
Had PC Basha been injured or killed whilst on duty outside the Israeli Embassy by extremist elements, we would all be throwing our hands in the air wondering why the Met had been so stupid as to place this officer at undue risk in changed circumstances.
79.etc. I agree about the similarities of Orthodox Jewish practices and those of fundamentalist Islam. I used to teach in an Orthodox school. It was a great school-the children were enthusiastic and the staff were welcoming, the area was fascinating and I never felt that I was unwanted or intruding.
But I know I got the job because I have a Jewish name (I come from a very lapsed background.) I was required to wear a long dress and most of the women on the street wore wigs. I eventually quit for two reasons-I was asked to wear a scarf at work and then one of my students told me her parents were arranging a marriage for her. I gave her a lot of phone numbers which I hope she used but I was very young and completely out of my depth.
The problem with all this business about dress is that it isn’t simply a matter of what you wear and how much you choose to cover up. If I decided to walk about in a white pointy hood with holes for the eyes and a matching white cloak for example I would be stupid not to expect some response on the streets. And while it is obviously perfectly legal to wear a burqua I’m sorry but the effect just is slightly spooky, especially those jobbies that come with pillar-box style slits covered with fine black mesh. However, having watched barrages of these women in operation at the local outdoor market I think you might be surprised at what they have on underneath…
Re 126 Lin, the thing about arranged marriages is that some people like them, so it can be difficult to tell if some one is being forced into it or not.
127 - Tories tying themselves in knots is amusing. The effort on behalf of slimy individuals like Letwin to exploit criticism of Straw reminds me of nothing so much as George Galloway and his wretched respect party.
127. Fine, but this kid did not like it and was terrified and only sixteen.
RE 129, In which case I do hope she used the telephone numbers you gave her.
anyone seen article in washington post today-’new meadia a weapon in the world of politics’-accounting for republican successes in recent elections and interestingly has parallels in the way osborne and cameron are (successfully?)defining gordon brown. Hopefully clinton shared his observations with brown last week!
113 Jack W says Neither is there a “Blair Clan”.
Not true. A google shows their website.
Neither is there a “Blair Clan”.
Here is the link to Ian Blair’s and Tony Blair’s Clan site.
http://www.clanblair.org/
132/133 Jack B. Good name !
The site you link to is more of a family society than a Clan. Often, as in this case they are USA based organizations.
The name Blair has no Clan Chief or individual status as recognized by The Standing Council of Scottish Chiefs or the Lord Lyon. The name Blair will be a sept or cadet of another name, although I’m unsure which one,
There will, of course, be Scottish armigerous Blairs, but that does not relate to Chiefship of, or recognition of a Clan.
John Prescott has waded in on the debate on “should they shouldnt they wear the Veil”
Citing similar concerns, John Prescott in a news Statement from his Country Pile voiced concerns that members of his staff refused to remove their panties when talking to him. Johns claim is that this does create divisions, and does nothing to promote the Team Building experience and bonding that he likes to promote from within.
Aware that his concerns may well offend some members of society, Margaret Becket supported John fully stating that in a Mans world it is only right that women are subservient to the lust of their line manager, I myself have found it both frustrating and infuriating when younger members of my staff attempt to conduct a conversation clad in little more than a business suit and clearly wearing panties