Sean Fear’s local election commentary
October 6th, 2006-
How the Parties Are Performing?
None of the three main parties can take that much comfort from their performance in local by-elections since the start of July. In all contests during that period, the Conservatives have made a net loss of 1 seat, Labour are unchanged, the Liberal Democrats have made a net gain of 6, Scottish and Welsh nationalists have made a net gain of 2, and Others have made a net loss of 7.
There have been a total of 36 contests involving the three main parties during this period. 9 were in seats last contested in 2003; 4 in seats last contested in 2004; 6 in those last contested in 2005, and 17 in those last contested in 2006. Changes in vote share are shown in the following table which shows the year last contested and the change in vote share for the three main parties.
2003 C-2.3% L-12.7% LD +9.8%
2004 C-9.0% L+7.0% LD -23.3%
2005 C +8.0% L-5.1% LD -2.6%
2006 C-4.0% L-0.5% LD +2.6%
It is necessary to point out that there have been a large number of unusually odd results. The Conservative figure for 2006 is distorted by last week’s result in Blackburn and Darwen, for example (even if I add the Conservative share to that of the Independent, it still knocks 2% of the average Conservative share in seats last contested this year); likewise, the poor Liberal Democrat score compared to 2004 is explained by a terrible result in Bolton, and Labour’s figure is affected by a couple of awful Scottish results.
Equally, local contests are reflecting national opinion polls in showing a growing vote for minor parties, particularly the Greens and British National Party, who won 33% in Redbridge, and 29% in Charnwood, last night.
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With all these caveats, I estimate the Conservative national equivalent vote share at 35%, compared to 28% for the Lib Dems and 25% for Labour. No party can be pleased with this.
May’s Conservative vote share of 39% has not been maintained. Indeed, the Conservative vote share has fallen in 13 out of 17 contests in seats which were last contested in May. The Labour Party is still hugely unpopular; its vote share is as low as that of the Conservatives in 1995. However, the anti-Labour vote is not converging on the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrat vote share, while certainly not bad, shows no sign of a major breakthrough.
If next May’s results are similar, then the Conservatives will make gains in the low hundreds, from Labour, rather than the much larger gains I had previously anticipated. The three main parties could all expect to lose seats to the minor parties.
There were three by-elections, last night:-
Charnwood DC: Loughborough Shelthorpe: Labour 643, BNP 478, Conservative 386, Lib Dem 155. Labour hold. The Conservative vote held up, compared to 2003, and the Labour vote rose. Turnout, however, rose sharply, which suggests the BNP were able to motivate former non-voters to vote both for and against them, as in Barking and Dagenham.
Ellesmere Port and Neston BC: Little Neston. Labour 420, Conservative 386, Lib Dem 81. Labour gain from Conservative. In fact, the Conservative vote share was 5% up on 2004, but former Green voters seem to have switched heavily to Labour.
Eden DC: Penrith Carleton: Lib Dem 223, Conservative 186. Lib Dem hold in a seat which was unopposed last time.
Sean Fear is a London Tory activist.
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Bad local election results, a kill Thatcherism, no tax cuts, hello clouds, hello sky conference - how long will the Tories put up with this Cameron chap?
Lib Dems unhappy with 28% vote share? With Labour at 25%. Sounds pretty good to me.
“None of the three main parties can take that much comfort from their performance in local by-elections since the start of July”.
Well, I think the party that will be most disappointed will be the Conservatives. “Despair I can handle, but the problem is the hope”.
2. I don’t think Sean said it was bad, but that it wasn’t a major breakthrough (considering it was LD 27%, Lab 26% in 2004 local elections)
I don’t think the terms “local byelection results” and “major breakthrough” should ever be included in the same sentence
Just for fun, I put those %ages into Baxter and got
Conservative 329
Labour 184
Liberal Democrat 105
Con majority 8 - if that’s the outcome next time every Tory Peebie will be a bigger bender than Freddie Flintoff’s after last year’s Oval Test match, n’est-ce pas?
[6] That should read “be on a bigger bender” of course…
Has labour reached its core vote ?
As you point out the anti/non labour vote is very fractured and neither Con/Lab/LD seems able to capitalise on that at the moment.
I guess this is unlikely to happen while all three main parties seem to be in transition and there seems little reason to ‘converge’ on the Tory vote while there is a lack of policies.
People while they may be unhappy with Labour may also not be sure what a Con Govt would do differently enough to vote for them…yet.
Labour seems to be gearing up to neutralising the BNP through Housing and immigration policy as well as motivating its activists to take them on.
All three main parties are also moving into green terrain but I guess they are the biggest threat to the LD’s.
Im curious to see if UKIP develop into a protest vote in locals as Con voters vote tactically to put pressure on Cameron.
The last time we had a great PM, she spent her years in opposition with some of the best brains of her generation. Only Keith Joseph was in the commons–others like Hayek and Sherman weren’t politicians. A great politician, TB, built his team and contacts in opposition—only GB was in the commons. Others include A Campbell, Mandleson, the author of the Third Way, and he worked at having good relations with Rupert Murdoch.
Who are the parallel political touchstones of DC? I’ve no idea—when he presents himself on video, he is sharing porridge with his issue. Maybe some of the tory members on here can help with a few names.
A vital strength shared by MHT and TB is that they were (are) both grafters. Mrs T was always on top of the detail, while TB has never shirked, particularly his diplomatic air-miles.
DC has loads of charm, and is popular. He doesn’t need to state policies, but he does need to re-organise CCHQ. He has not done so. In fact, he hasn’t appeared to do much. Is he building a wide-ranging and able team away from Westminster, or is he idling and playing with his children?
Mandelson was an MP
8. They’ll have to start contesting some seats first…they only contested 6 in July-September. In the two they stood in before, their vote share was down.
“The last time we had a great PM, she spent her years in opposition with some of the best brains of her generation.”
When did Golda Meir ever do that?
Here’s the Press Association report on yesterday’s by-elections -
“The Tories suffered a post-conference slump with defeats in the latest council byelections.
They went down to defeat at Little Neston, Ellesmere Port and Neston borough, Cheshire, to Labour’s Michael Clarkson.
The Conservatives came in third at Loughborough Shelthorpe, Charnwood borough, Leicestershire, where the far-right BNP scored a surprise 28.8%.
Further performances such as these could boost Tory leader David Cameron’s party critics, who were mainly subdued at this week’s Bournemouth conference.
Results
Charnwood borough - Loughborough Shelthorpe: Lab 643, BNP 478, Con 386, Lib Dem 155. (May 2003 - Two seats: Lab 508, 501, Con 404, 386). Lab hold. Swing 1.6% Con to Lab.
Eden district - Penrith Carleton: Lib Dem 223, Con 189. (May 2003 - Lib Dem unopposed). Lib Dem hold.
Ellesmere Port and Neston borough - Little Neston: Lab 420, Con 386, Lib Dem 81. (June 2004 - Con 533, Lab 500, Lib Dem 212, Green 157). Lab gain from Con. Swing 3.1% Con to Lab.
“
By-Election Results: Thursday 5th October 2006.
Charnwood BC, Loughborough Shelthorpe
Lab 643 (38.7; -17.0), BNP 478 (28.8; +28.8), Con 386 (23.2; -21.1), LD Paul Tyler 155 (9.3; +9.3).
Majority 165. Turnout 33.5%. Lab hold. Last fought 2003.
Eden DC, Penrith Carleton
LD Patricia Bell 223 (54.1), Con 189 (45.9).
Majority 34. Turnout 32.8%. LD hold. LD elected unopposed in 2003.
Ellesmere Port and Neston DC, Little Neston
Lab 420 (47.4; -2.1), Con 386 (43.5; +5.4), LD Graham Handley 81 (9.1; +9.1), [Green (0.0; -12.5)].
Majority 34. Turnout 32.5%. Lab gain from Con. Last fought 2006.
Please note:
The figures for percentage change are based on the details of the results from the last time that there was an election in the ward by statute in the May (or sometimes June) elections, rather than by any by-election. We use the figures in The Local Elections Handbook by Colin Rallings & Michael Thrasher.
The Party-defending seat is the party that the former Councillor (who has died, resigned or been disqualified) belonged to when she or he was elected not the one that she or he may have subsequently belonged to as a result of any defection.
9 - Go to Guido’s archive for Dec last year when Cameron had just got in. He mentions most of the main policy players ( globalisation instritute,Policy exchange)and zeitgeist figures like Virginia Postel.
His main point was that Cameron was much more under the radar at the time (the usual Tory suspects were gravitating around Davis as the sure thing) so when Cameron took the Crown he was largely policy free and open to modernisers who had previously been ignored.
14. The vote share changes for the Ellesmere Port contest are incorrect. They are confusing Little Neston ward (last fought 2004) with Neston ward (last fought 2006).
The actual changes since 2004 are Lab +12.0, Con +4.6, LD -5.8, [Green -11.0]
“Who are the parallel political touchstones of DC? ”
How about Zac Goldsmith, Steve Hilton, Mary Ann Seighart, India Knight, Oliver Letwin, Shireen Ritchie, and Francis Maude?
13. Nothing like a nice balanced editorial line, is there?
18 How inspiring !
Btw, did you recall the Conservative councillor’s story about gay animals joke?
well, the Tory group suspended him from the Personnel Board and and the Developing Communities and Tackling Crime Scrutiny and Review Panel.
The councillor left the party and will sit as an Independent (the BNP has invited him to join them, btw)
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/news/politics/2005-2665.html
The tories are more “inquisitor” than me!
For those of you who missed it…
PC Basha is employed by Ian Blair (of the Clan Blair).
Ian Blair is employed by Ian Blair (of the Clan Blair).
Here is a link to the Clan Blair site.
http://www.clanblair.org/
20 Bournemouth Tories sound as ghastly as Bournemouth Lib Dems.
22. Sean, I’m not sure, but I don’t think they suspended him for the joke itself (as I said, I didn’t find the joke offensive* and the LDs over-reacted), but for his following comments
* not that I found it funny either.
20
s/me/I
The Tories aren’t you at all; not one little bit.
22. Aren’t you taking a little much from the dog days of Summer. Only the true anorak of the anoraks who vote in Local By-Elections are switched on then and voting.
BTW How are the parties faring in Scotland/Wales over the last year, any runes to be read for next year’s elections.
25.”BTW How are the parties faring in Scotland/Wales over the last year, any runes to be read for next year’s elections. ”
Labour had done bad in all Scottish local byelections it was defending in 2006
That’s certainly a possiblity, Hun. I commented on a number of odd results. Nonetheless, 36 three way contests is a reasonable number to comment on.
25. I see the Germans are about !!
21 Jack B. No Clan Blair … see 134 two threads back.
[17] Thankyou for those names, Sean. They’ll doubtless look more impressive with the passing of the years.
DC may be working really hard behind the scenes. But he still seems to be sweeter on ‘family friendly life styles’ that the work ethic.
27. Yes but Summer it’s well Summer as far as this is concerned. Really think like polls By-Elections while not completely worthless must be treated with care at this time. Wld be very interested in a year’s overiew like opinion polls morelikely to give a truer measure. Why did the Tories do so well in North Wales, even with my caveats that was a surprise.
28. Is there a Clan Cameron. Were they a Government Clan or no.
27. No wonder they pulled the plug on their Glasgow shindig. 2007 is shaping to be a bloddbath for Labour the longer the Dear Leader is there I think.
30 Hun. Clan Cameron is the root of the Cameronian Regt from the 1680’s. There is also a Clan Cameron of Lochiel - a notable Jacobite Clan and also a Clan Cameron of Erracht.
22/23:
Says the Councillor in question:
“I believe in the law of Moses. I’m not a religious fanatic. As long as they do it behind closed doors, I don’t mind, but now they [homosexuals] control the media, the television. They have much stronger control over this country than they should have.”
The guy is obviously a nasty piece of work, and I dont think the Bournemouth Lib Dems over-reacted at all in getting him pinned down for his views on homosexuals. To their credit, Bournemouth Conservatives have reacted quickly and properly to expel this fool from their ranks. Good for them - if more Conservative parties behave like this, the country will come to accept that they have indeed changed and may well consider electing them to govern the UK again.
A ferocious backlash in support of the councilor will just show that nothing has changed and that the belief that homosexuals “control” the media and the country is widely held in the Conservative party.
32. I said they over-reacted in first place after the Noah “joke”, but then in his attempt to defend himself the councillor showed his true colours.
(He also said something like the laws of Moseh being stronger than the laws of David Cameron…..)
32. Reading this site a few weeks ago, left-inclined posters were implying every day that Jews ‘controlled’ the media.
34: I dont particularly remember that. None of the major right-wing media in the UK are owned by Jews, so it would be an obviously stupid thing to say. There is the issue of the undue power of the pro-Israel (partly Jewish, but not completely - now fundamentalist Christians are a major influence in that) lobby in the US, which is a fair point, but not directly related to the media, and not an issue in the UK.
32-As I’ve commented before, how many people outside the big cities, media, etc really care about gay issues? Most people really don’t care either way, in fact wry smiles would probably outweigh shock as refers to the above “joke”. Had people been polled for retaining Section 28, they would have voted to retain, the issue being that no one really cared enough about it to do so.
I am puzzled when the Media keep reporting on Historical polls comparisons Labour led by 20-30 points etc but didn’t win so the Tories have no chance. But how do we know Labour were ever ahead by such colossal amounts. Take 1992 you either believe the Tories pulled off a truly dramatic swing in the last week or as most pollsters seemed to that the Tories were always ahead but the Polls were way out. Dramatic improvements were made but even in 1997 the polls were significantly out masked perhaps by the colssal scale of Labour’s win anyway. Since then polls have been further refined and improved. So are like other technology far superior today to their predecessors of the distant past. So while Labour may well have been ahead at points 1979-1997, the margin was in truth far smaller than the inflated poll numbers. If that is the case then surely any comparisons by hacks of today’s polls to the inferior pre 1992 polls with their inferior pre 1992 techniques are clearly misleading right.
31. What were the Cameronian regiment you talk about. One of the new levies by James II to try and cling to power as popular support ebbed away. What were the Clan Cameron of Erracht then. So overall no pro Government Camerons then.
35-Pro Israeli commentators often comment on the pro-Arab stance of parts of the British media. By the same token right wing American commentatotrs comemnt on the liberl (sic) bias of the “mainstream media” in the US. It is very easy to claim bias when the media comment unfavourably on your views. Are there fundamentalist Christain media outlets in the US? Yes, but there are also left wing media outlets. Ultimately you’ll watch what you want. Ditto with the press, you can read the Guardian or the Daily Mail.
36.”As I’ve commented before, how many people outside the big cities, media, etc really care about gay issues?”
That doesn’t allow some minor politicians to make hateful comments about gay people either…and if those comments are just over-looked, it wouldn’t help in the attempt to try to eliminate/tone down similar feelings among some parts of the society.
37 Hun. Quite the reverse. The Cameronian Regt was officially raised in 1689 in the service of the usurpers William and Mary !! The Regt was fiercely Protestant in nature, however their first taste of battle at Killiekrankie resulted in a defeat at the hands of the Jacobite forces of “Bonnie” Viscount Dundee.
The successor regiments saw service throughout the Empire and fought with distinction in both world wars. Sadly they were disbanded in the Labour defence cuts in 1968.
The Clan Cameron of Erracht descend form the Camerons of Lochiel in the 16th century. Sir Alan Cameron of Erracht raised the Cameron Highlanders in 1804 from the 79th Regt, a regiment that saw service in various guises, eventually becoming the Queens Own Highlanders.
If Prime Minister Cameron employed a Metropolitan Police Commissioner named Sir Ian Cameron who employed muslim police married by an Islamic extremist, then it would be correct to criticise him.
So, Tony Blair -> Sir Ian Blair -> PC Basha
The links are clear.
Vote Labour and get Labour-Blair’s Policemen…
…refusing to protect “certain types of people” and other policemen arresting old ladies for not returning footballs from their garden.
41 … your a right wing loony. (And a few more Labour haters on here should also take note) Your simplistic views are moronic. This is a betting site.
42. I’m betting the drip effect of these facts affect politics, betting and political betting.
The link between voting Labour, Tony Blair, Ian Blair and left wing looney Policing is clear.
Sometimes simplistic views are simple because they are simply true.
43 And sometimes Jack B these links are just a load of bolloc*s !!
44. Sometimes, but you know it is true. When Lefties lose an argument they resort to insults and abuse.
So, in summary:
Labour -> Tony Blair -> Ian Blair -> Political correctness gone mad…
Policemen refusing to protect “certain types of people”…
Police arresting old ladies for not returning footballs…
Children arrested and DNA recorded for climbing trees…
Walter Wolfgang roughed up and threatened with Terrorism laws…
Labour and the Blair Clan must be proud.
But beware, you will be judged on what the people.
43/44/45. Too many Jacks tonight
46 And far too many Blairs
47. yes…but Hazel Blears* would be happy by the many Blairs presence….
* I think Gordon mispronounced her name in Hazel Blair during his conference speech..I bet she was proud of it!
Wasn’t Hazel Blears mother a Blair?
46 Andrea. More like a hi-Jack tonight Andrea.
And with this cretinous level of debate, I’ll retire for the night … Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
49. What are you insinuating, Icarus?
50. Good Night, Jack W
Apologies if this has been noted elsewhere ages ago, but I’ve only just noticed that David Milliband is now in the list of runners for the Next Chancellor, and has traded some pretty hefty odds.
Anyone think he’s worth a few quid at >25/1?
RE 6 Inoocent, not only am I deeply offended, I have written to my lawyers who will be suing, but I have also called the police who will prosecute you for hate crimes.
Re 7 Ah, it was a typo…
I’ll get me coat.
I see the drunks turned up early tonight, must have been no supermarket car parks to hang around in.
Re 20, Thanks for that Andrea. It appears we as a society ae becomming very intolerant of other peoples views and that is a very bad thing.
55. sorry if I’ve few respect for people who think I’m an abomination
Re 20. It’s just so depressing.
Frigging homos should be shot!!
There. Come on you depressing lefty Gestapo thoughtpolice. Stop picking on 72 year old blokes who are just having a laugh.
Come on. Arrest ME. I said “homos should be shot.” So arrest ME. Ring my publishers. Crush my career. Arrest this enemy of diversity.
You pitiful, pitiful morons. You pitiful Nazis.
45,as a tree-lover,does anyone defend the right of anyone (I DON’T care about their age,religion,gender,anything else come to that) to wilfully damage trees,whether privately or publicly owned-FWIW,I hope the families of those concerned,who adore their brats to the point of condoning their yobbish (sorry,that’s politically incorrect,but I don’t CARE) beheviour are monitored,hassled,inspected,pried upon by Social Services until the cows come home!(BTW,although Sean T and I have differing political takes,I strongly admire his ’say-it-as-you-see-it stance,and have a lot of respect for his bravery in broaching issues that the more mamby-pamby of us contributors,would be too frightened to say-so fair play,Sean,all the best,mate!
BTW,my lilt towards authoritarianism is not out of personal malevolence,but a galnce at the utter breakdown of British society-teenagers terrorising home-owners,then their realtive shaving the temerity to complain if ,in a moment of anger,their little darling is sworn at (I point to the West Yorkshire case,where political correctness has given the keys to the lunatics0
Confident street criminals,boasting their ‘rights’,'ability to sue ‘-a good few of us on here know the score,only too bloody well.
As a chilling,but intellectually heavy final point,in the early days of Herr Hitler’s Chanceelorship(ie the mid 1930s),sterilisation of anti-social,criminal,etc occurred-if each and every one of us stopped and thought,would we agree that every last person incumbent to the UK should freely breed-its only a question-I know as I type I am going to be SCREAMED at-go on,howl,I’m saying the ‘unacceptable’in Great Briatian I still have freedom of speech
Report on the BNP Terror Raid:
http://www.respectcoalition.org/?ite=1191
What do you make of this?
59. Didn’t Jonathon Ross get told off for joking about people from council estates should not be allowed to breed?
Patrick, I do believe that you shouldn’t have Children unless you can afford their upkeep and not expect others (ie the state) to pay for them.
57. Sean. I assume you mean Homo Sapiens? I don’t think you should be calling for the death penalty for our fellow man without at least a very serious crime being committed first.
I trust you thought those nutty protests over the Danish cartoons, calling for death to those who insult Islam, were out of order? I sure did but so is saying Homo Sapiens should be shot.
How many beers did you have tonight?
60. As that came from the Respect website: they were probably overgrown schoolboys playing with fireworks and a chemistry set…
I would be more inclined to believe it if it came from a more moderate source.
61,I have complete respect for your view,that unless one can provide for one’s offspring,one should not emburden the taxpayer-it is old-fashioned propriety,sadly lacking in today’s chav culture-I salute and resoect my late grandparents for inculcating a sense of right and wrong
57 ,Whilst believing in a VERY tough stance on law and order,it is the case that,over the decades proceeding the abolition of the death penalty in the UK,that horrendous miscarriages of justice did occur-for example,Ruth Eliis,tha last woman to hang in the UK,was repeatedly beaten by the man she,in a moment of madness,killed.(today,in my opinion,she would have been hard-done-by to get more than 4 years for manslaughter-and if a man took pleasure in battering her,than he frankly deserved it.
My final point on capital punishment is:
If 999 guilty people hang,but 1 innocent person hangs,then one word: NO -I hope others can respect my sentiments
63. Yes of course I can respect your sentiments but I do slightly disagree. I do believe in it for the most evil of crimes. My view is that it could save more innocent lives than it takes.
I do support what is often called the government’s authoritarian streak. ID cards, yes (if they don’t make a mess of it!) but in reality I feel it is more talk than real action about being really tough on those who inflict misery on others.
Probably upset a few of my fellow Conservatives there but we do need punishments and deterents to run alongside reform.
64,Many thanks for your reply.Even as a (hitherto ) Labour voter,I cannot but ask myself,’With their record on IT projects,does not the mind boggle at the scope for cock-ups?
BTW,if you put ‘psr.keele’ into Google,and follow the links,one can access:
(a)Constituency resulys since 1945
(b)Party manifestoes,AND scripts of part eelction broadcats since 1955(as far as I recall)-come on,you real poitical anaroaks,dip your toe in the water!
DC,by the way,I am,in the back of my mind,asking myself,that by the next election,the Labour Party will have governed for 12-13 years,and maybe,JUST maybe it is time for a change (if only to see a postwar Tory government re-instate boom and bust,Lawson-Thatcher,Barber-Heath to name two examples) I await Snowflake and others to dis-abuse myself of this most awful nightmare!
65. Indeed, I can forsee a nightmare in trying to get it right and lots of problems along the way. Doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done though. Just needs to be well thought out and done right.
I would like to sleep tonight so will pass on looking at 60 years of election history!
66. I remember my Dad saying that it would be good for us to lose in 97 so that people could see how bad Labour were for four years and that we could take stock, sort ourselves out and come back stronger for another long period of Government.
Alas it was not to be…
RE 56 Andrea, Forgive me for pointing put there is a difference between respect and tolerance.
We all take differing views on a number of things.
RE 64, DC, in our last executiones memiors he very much doubted that the death penalty was any deterant.
So you would not be saving any lives by re introducing the death penalty but could be taking many innocent ones.
57 In the absense of Nick P can I be the first to say SeanT should be shot for that statement?
Actually of course, whilst I fundamentally disagree with his statement, I defend his right to say it. Equally I fundamentally disagree with Nick Griffiths but would defend his right to say it. For Nick Griffiths read any number of reactionaries from Right or Left or from various political or religious spectrums.
That said I don’t believe violence is ever part of the solution, so I couldn’t extend the same rights to Bin Laden or the IRA. Unless you give up violence then everything you say will be tainted. So I now have much more time for new members of Sinn Fein. But I still believe in my heart that Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness probably ordered people’s murders.
How did I get to this point? Oh yes, I remember.
What the Bournemouth Conservative Councillor actually said was not in itself homophobic, but reflected a distaste for political correctness that is present in much of the country. His later statements were not in the same vein, and his attempts to defend himself have led him to a path of saying indefensible things. Oh I don’t know. What I mean to say is, whilst many of us know that homosexuality is not a sin, not a crime, not a medical condition, not any of the disgraceful things it has been described as, there are many people of a certain generation who grew up when it was still illegal. There has to be a certain tolerance of outdated views in that circumstance. They should be challenged, but not in this way. Merely stating that these views were not relevant any longer in the 21st Century should have been the reaction of the Lib Dem group. However I suspect they were aware of the councillors real views and so knew this wasn’t a poor taste joke (a much worse one was on BBC Radio 4 this evening at about 630) but the mans true views.
That was a bit of a ramble wasn’t it. What I meant to say was that this councillors outdated views are reflective of his age, not his political party. They should have been challenged quietly, nothing has been gained from publlicising them.
DC, ID cards were abolished under a Conservative government led by Winston Churchil.
They fundamentaly change the relationship between the individual and the state. If you belive in that change, join the Labour party, the BNP or some other facist bunch.
RE 71, Ben, Homosexuality not a sin? Can I presume you are C of E?
As a Roman Catholic my position is clear. It is a sin.
And let he who is with out sin cast the first stone.
(That won’t be me, or any one else who is not a liar)
71,Even as a centre-leaning Labour voter residnet to Bournemouth East,I am APPALLED at the ‘throw-our-toys-out-of-the-pram- hysreraia of the councillor who took umbrage at Noah’s animals being censured for being of opposite sex (Sorry if that sounds politically non- PC!)
The only saving grace for the incumbent LibDen councilof Bournemouth is that,since spring 2003,council tax bills have risen by c.3%/annum,as opposed to 12.5%/annum under the 1999-2003 Conservative council of Bournemouth.
(I would hasten to add that a central Lib DEm manifesto pledge,namely to preserve the neglected-but loved Winter Gardens was ,suprise,surprsie,reneged upon-a temporary car prk sits on the grave of our dear,departed,music hall…)
General tittle-tattle has raised the blood pressure of Bournemouth residents-I can accept the viability of selling the municpal bus company to Transdev,a well-known railoperator in France,as so far,they8 have been service and customer orientated-BUT,even as a Labourite,I might just welcome the Tories back to Bournemouth local govt post May 2007!
74 - you embarrass yourself daily on this site.
57 - is this SeanT character just a deliberate Alan Partridge-esque spoof merchant, or is there someone really that sad, racist and bitter out there?
Sean, if you are for real, can I just say - yes, sometimes people use the word “racist” unfairly to shut down debate.
In your case, they use it because you are a racist.
Re 76 jim Deebles, What becasue I am a Roman Catholic, or a sinner? Or could it be that you are a fool or a bigot?
Benedict - I have been trying to make sense of your post at 74. Are you trying to tell us that you are gay?
Jack W makes cretinous posts.
Vote Labour and get upside down policing.
Tony Blair and Ian Blair are of the Clan Blair.
73. Benedict. I really don’t see ID cards as being facist. They have them in much of the EU and I believe it is no big deal having them. Of course, I would never say we should do something just because they do it on the continent! That is Labour/Libdem speak.
69. Benedict, I haven’t seen any intolerance against the councillor. He has the right to express his opinions on that matter, others have the right to disagree and condamn them.
71. Ben, I was talking about it with a friend and he also suggested me that maybe the LDs picked up the joke because they knew what it could have led
80 - Jack off?
What would be really entertaining is for Mike to publish the real identities of those who use multiple names, we know roughly who they are but seeing them attempt to justify their arrogant posturing without the safety of lying about themselves would be great fun.
By real identities you mean the identity they usually post under which of course in most cases is not their reallife identity .
The 2004 figures suggest significant Lib Dem losses to Labour next year.
Interestingly if anybody, Labour appears to come out of the last three weeks with the better results.
Looks as if the “Cameron has no substance”, message has got across, for now anyway.
Matthew Parris, this morning in the Times, takes up that point. He sounds worried.
84 - Well their name may be different but why would anyone hide their true identity? I can understand MPs and the like doing so but your common or garden person has no need to change the nature of who they are, even if they don’t use their real name. Or am I missing something?
84 - Well their name may be different but why would anyone hide their true identity? I can understand MPs and the like doing so but your common or garden person has no need to change the nature of who they are, even if they don’t use their real name. Or am I missing something?
Hm, not sure why that posted twice, I thought the site was set up to stop you doing that!
85 The 2004 figures are completely distorted by the Bolton result . Most seats fought in 2004 were also fought in 2006 being Metros . If Sean’s figure for the LibDem share of 28% is correct ( I think it a little high ) then they will make net gains .
Sean you remark “If next May’s results are similar, then the Conservatives will make gains in the low hundreds, from Labour, rather than the much larger gains I had previously anticipated. The three main parties could all expect to lose seats to the minor parties”
I would still expect the Tories to do very wel next May .Remember the bulk of seats being contested are v 2o03 in District and Unuitary councils many of which are allup.in 2203 Tory vote share in polls stood at c 30% labour at 42% so even if the Tories fall back a bit it is still a large swing to them>my feeling is that the Toreis will win at least 500 seats and more likley nearly 1000.
iagree minor partie swill make gains but not hugely unless they can fight alot more seats ot target very effectively.
Roger H
You may be right Roger. Certainly, we weren’t doing that well in local by-elections in the run up to May 5th, but then along came John Prescott and the Home Office fiasco. It could well be (as I argued a few weeks ago) that people will use next year’s elections in order to give Blair a kicking, in which case, it will go very badly for Labour.
There is a further point, namely, that the Conservatives will field many more candidates than Labour or the Lib Dems (or any minor party of course) and so will probably pick up the anti-Labour vote by default in some places.
WRT the Bournemouth councillor, I’ve thought it over, and I’m with Benedict White on this. The man’s expressed views were a bit silly, but if you take the whip away from every councillor who says something a bit silly, you’d be left with precious few. The Group Leader has acted like a fool.
91. I don’t comment on withdrawing the party’s whip or not, because it’s not my party……..but I think it’s still a bit difficult to argue he just made innocent remarks (not the joke itself, but the other remarks)
91/92. Btw, he looked a bit, well, let’s say “erratic” (but I guess you understand what I mean) more than anything else.
uhm, the lovely councillor is in a split ward…standing as an Indepdent can damage the toris…2003 result was:
Con 1 1,122
Con 2 1,113
Con 3 (”our” councillor) 1,063
LD 1 1,031
LD 2 1,021
LD 3 913
(the rest was far away)
RE 79 Sage, no I am not, but I am a sinner, so I can’t cast the first stone. I am not going to get on my high moral horse becasue some one else sins in a way I don’t, whn I know perfectly well I sin in other ways.
89 Mark, should do, but Labour should get some of their losses in 2004 back. On the whole Labour are not doing badly, considering everything, makinggains against the Cons etc.
Labour seem to have learnt how to fight the Lib Dems in a nation wide local election where the Lib Dem resources are stretched. It is up to the Lib Dems to come up with another new and innovative campaign tactic. Winning here, I think not.
96 You could be right david , indeed that is what I originally forecast what would happen in the Mets this year in the pb.com comp though in actual fact the results in May in the Mets was virtually a draw gains by Labour in some councils being balanced by losses in others . Much will depend on the political climate next May .
test
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZGGqPL8_3I