Could the world soon be run by Women?
October 22nd, 2006
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Would having the only male leader impact on UK domestic politics?
An extraordinary series of developments, which few people seem seem to have picked up, is that in just over two years time the leaders of three of the four biggest economies in the West could be women.
Germany got its first ever female Chancellor in the early summer when Angela Merkel just managed to secure the top job after an indecisive election result saw the end of the Schroeder government.
France might just possibly have a female President for the first time if Segolene Royale becomes the Socialist candidate and goes on to win next year’s Presidential election.
The USA, as we discussed a couple of weeks ago, has two female possibities - Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Condoleeza Rice for the Republicans.
Judging by the betting and the polls there is a realistic prospect that all this could come about. In an opinion poll last week Royal led Sarkozy 51-49 and the latest betting has her at 6/4 to get the job.
In the US Hillary is priced at 1.26/1 to secure the nomination and 7/4 win back the White House for the Democrats in 2008. On the Republican side Rice is priced at 10.5/1 to get her party’s nomination. Neither of these, it should be said, have announced that they will be running.
If the US and France went for women then three out of the four top western economies would be led by females. The UK would be the odd one out.
If this were to come about the whole look and feel of international politics would change in a way that is hard to predict. Would, for instance there be any knock on effect in UK domestic politics?
You could see both Brown and Cameron trying to pitch that they would be best in a changed world. The gender split in domestic opinion polls would be given greater prominence and it would filled acres of newspaper space.
Mike Smithson
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What it might do, depending how long Blair hangs on, is encourage women to stand for the Labour leadership, or more likely deputy leadership.
The odd one out, apart from Japan, I presume.
3 and China!
Blimey Mike, we really need some new polls, don’t we. This is a bit deseperate.
re 4 In September there were twelve national polls. So far in October we have had two.
If I write about Gordon Brown Nick Palmer calls me obcessed
Can i make a suggestion, Mike, that you need to get back to putting a greater focus on betting prices in some of your articles? You don’t have to have had a bet to comment on the prices. Recently betting prices have only really got a look in as a adjunct to articles (and then only really the Gordon Brown market), or occasionally in the comments. There was a time that you used to strongly advocate the cause of betting markets as a potentially superior indicator of the political situation to the polls. And whether there’s 12 polls a month or 2, the betting markets for general election winner, no. of seats etc are ALWAYS available - with close to 100% books.
In classical Athens, women became powerful in times of long peace, and men less so. When war broke out, men were back on top, so to speak. If people want women in power, they are saying that they want peace, and not war. Cameron’s a male equivalent with his lack of bellicosity. Gordon Brown with all his insecurities is not. Cameron fits fine with three women to share world leadership. Brown would be all fingers and thumbs. Hug a hoodie. Mother a Moslem. Get ready for the love-in to replace the Blair-Brown-Bush bloodbath.
FWIW, Spreadfair seems to be currently predicting a Tory lead of c. 6-7% in the General Election. So they don’t really believe the current polls, and they certainly don’t give any credence to the idea that Labour is suffering midterm blues.
Even if you don’t actively comment on the prices sometimes just providing them, say every Friday or something, can generate comment in itself by making people aware. As has often been noted in debates on the topic, many contributors to the site have never even visited Betfair, let alone placed a bet on it.
See what you mean about Cruddas guys.
Just saw him on ITV, there’s a very smooth, plausible, man of the people look and touch about him I agree.
7 - the analogy doesn’t really work. It doesn’t matter how much people want peace, they don’t necessarily have the choice.
6. Betting can also be wrong. It was supposedly a certainty that Blair would push us into the Euro. It was a near certainty that Portillo or Clarke would win the Tory leadership after Hague in 2001. It is now almost a certainty that Gordon Brown will win the Labour leadership - or is it? It’s finding the times when the bets are all wrong that’s the most fascinating.
Mike I know you are doing your best with thin material - was intended to be a lighthearted comment. Rice is definitely not running. Clinton’s negatives mean she has no real chance in ‘08. It might have been more interesting to draw the Clinton-Brown paralell; definite to win the nomination/leadership and equally definite to lose the election due to a high dislikeability factor.
Maybe it’s time for a thread on LibDem strategy in marginals at the next election? At least til we get some polls.
PS, have you thought of copying the essential RealClearPolitics.com in the states and listing all the polls as they come in? As we approach an election it will be more interesting.
There was something yesterday on a remark of Blair’s that indicated he would not be gone until next summer. The date of the next election is not something we’ve had many threads on. I think informed discussion of that would be very interesting.
10. people have a choice about who they elect. people feel safer with less bellicosity than Bush and Blair advocate. There is a strategic need to bring cultures together, to reach out to moderate Moslems for example and show that we are with them in resisting the fanatics. women are often better at building cultural bridges than men. Gordon Brown wouldn’t recognise a cultural bridge if he saw one. He’d slap a toll on it, though.
Mike, its a wonderful thought, my Sunday morning is brighter already.
Next Lib Dem leader a woman, a young woman.
11 - Of course betting prices can be wrong. Although you have a strange definition of “certainty” if you think the betting markets suggest he is one. In fact currently it is only the betting markets that provide any sort of doubt to the prospect of Brown’s coronation.
The argument for (fairly liquid, unrigged) betting markets over polls is simple. Betting markets theoretically should incorporate ALL publicly available information (and some publicly unavailable information), of which polls are only one factor. Betting markets are also a predictor of the next election, whereas polls are only an indicator of the current situation.
13 - That’s kind of missing my point. In Greece you had to have peace before women rose to power. And you had to have war before the men returned. Having peace loving women in power didn’t guarantee peace, because you can only choose your own leaders.
And frankly i think it’s a bit of spin to suggest that the bulk of the UK population is currently crying out for somebody to cuddle up to ‘nice’ muslims. Most of the evidence suggest that large chunks of the UK population don’t think there’s any such thing. Why do you think leading Labour figures have been carrying on as they have over the last few weeks? Votes.
16. Jack Straw played the veil card as he badly needed to play himself onside and back into the leadership game. He had been pushed out for his lack of bellicosity, saying that Iran shouldn’t be attacked over nuclear weapons. His pitch is as much for support from Murdoch, who’s shopping around for Gordon Brown replacements (he’s no longer singing Gordon’s praises to the rooftops with Brown trailing Cameron so badly).
I’m not sure Brits are hungry for war. Confused certainly, and needing to engage with the Moslem issues in a way they can relate to. The veil has provided a subject which people can get hold of, and chew on.
But the French, Germans are anti-war and now the Americans too have had enough of fighting in Iraq and elsewhere. The next phase will be an attempt to find alternative ways to move ahead without war. Roll on the women and the gentle men. (as it were)
4 & 5 LOL!
Mike, the comments on this site regularly spin off-thread no matter how sharp and relevant the opening piece. This has prompted me to suggest that sometimes, when news is a bit thin, you should open a new thread with “Not much doing today, so just chat amongst yourselves.” I reckon you would get a pretty good discussion.
On a related point, I was away when you put up my piece on Odds etc so was unavailable to field comments or contribute myself. I have just read the thread and although the discussion was brief, I thought it was interesting with some good points being raised and in some cases answered by people stepping into my role (and doing a better job too!) However if anybody has any points on the article which they would like to address to me personally, they can always email me at arklebar@talktalk.net .
I have been pleased with the response to the two betting articles so far. I don’t want to push the betting angle unduly if people are not really interested but if anybody has a topic on which they would like me to write, I’m prepared to have a crack. Suggestions please to Mike, or to me at the above email address.
I think it’s a refreshingly interesting theme. It would make a difference to the atmosphere, and as with Brown it is really too early to say whether Hillary would win.
Thanks to Commentatator for the RCP link, which I’d forgotten about. The other site worth following for US elections is http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/ The webmaster is a Democrat (unlike the RCP webmaster, IIRC) but displays the polls with scrupulously rigid rules, and the overview is perhaps more accessible than RCP’s. I’m getting a slight impression that the Republicans are having a modest recovery - in the last few days the electoral-vote site has reported several ‘puzzling’ polls showing Republicans doing better than previous evidence had suggested.
Another ‘theme’ that this site could pursue on slow days would be the impsact of specific themes. There is polling data on, for instance, the tax’n’spend issue, and it might be populat with posters to have a thread discussing the electoral impact of alternative approaches. We could forgive the inevitable slide into people ranting about their own views if it was at least the topic of the day.
How can anyone say it is a slow news day/week/month when we have the very exciting prospect looming of the Isle of Man General Election on November 23rd?
For those of you not intimately familiar with Manx politics (I presume Andrea is!), the election is for the House of Keys which is apparently the 24-seat lower chamber on Man - the upper chamber being the Tynwald.
http://www.gov.im/cso/election/
Looking at the last set of results from 2001 (http://www.gov.im/cso/election/historical.xml), it seems that we could be in for a really nailbiting finishes in Middle consituency, and the 3rd seats in Ramsey and Rushen constituencies could easily change hands.
I wonder if Betfair have a market on it?
In reply to Benedict pressing me on the nerd test (last thread), I scored 9 out of 10, which they say means I have a makings of an excellent propeller-head. Simper.
As for the photo that DC wants, there’s a dubious one showing me eating a free-range egg sandwich on broxtowelabour.org
Not a slow day, huh?
21 Nick - you seem to have 2 thumbs on the hand eating the sandwich… is this something we should be told about?
12: Agree that Mike is doing incredibly well to churn out daily articles with so little that is as interesting as much of the leadership and polling churn over the last year.
My suggestion: an archive feature for rainy days. Looking back at past events, particularly where people lost/won a lot of money in the betting (IDS’s election?) and looking at what the signs were in betting odds/polls/individual comments by influential people/newspapers which indicated the outcomes. What did people place too much/too little weight on in putting their money down.
This could be very helpful as it could inform future betting patterns by examining which soucresof information are more reliable than others.
To answer your question precisely : no, the world is not going to be run by women.
As already pointed out China,India, Japan, Brazil and all developing countries have male leaders.
A for the 3 western countries you mention :
- The current consensus is that Hillary Clinton cannot make it (check the “Hillary meter” on Rasmussen reports website)
- Angela Merkel is the wek leader of a government without any clear program or mandate. The current CDU poll ratings are the worst ever.
- Nicolas Sarkozy is stille the favourite in France (last poll gave him a 53/47 margin and he’s at 1/1 at the bookies).
“Could The World Soon Be Run By Women?”
Heaven help us chaps …. you mean you don’t know ….. it already is !!
Couple of potential gains for the Cons this week. On paper anyway.
Ward in Chester that the Cons won this year and another where they already have a councillor in Blyth. Think they will be disappointed if they fail in both. Remains to be seen how the Labour/Lib Dem voters react, will there be a heavy third place squeeze, that may upset the calculations.
16. BNP are saying the current Labour anti-Moslem veil rhetoric and so on, only happened as Labour are losing so many white working class votes to them. They also claim the campaign to be dangerous in that it is needlessly alienating moderate Moslems who are needed to assist us in coping with the fanatics.
14 I know that in Britain we have a problem in thinking we are still somehow important on the world stage - but linking the thread to the leader of the lib dems is well - touching
Interesting piece in the Observer (p10) Paul Dacre on Gordon Brown. There was a time when the editor of the Daily Mail, would have nothing good to say about any Labour politician. Dacre’s comments about Cameron and Osborne are hardly enthusiastic. It does reinforce the impression that the usually totally loyal to the Tory cause Dail Mail, is less than impressed by the present party leadership.
29 - Time was when non-Tory supporters would laud any politicians who took less notice of the Daily Mail
30 Didn’t say I didn’t.
re 29. The Observer piece on Dacre also clears up the question of whether the Mail would support a Brown-led Labour party. He says ‘I don’t know [if the Conservative Party can win the election]; it’s far too early to tell. We’ve got to give them every backing. We need a healthy opposition in this country. Cameron and Osborne are attractive men, very bright men, and if they can change people’s perceptions of the Tories, then good luck to them.’
I think Royale winning in France is a bit of a chance at the moment. Not so much that the French wouldn’t vote for a woman, but that hard-core Socialists may try to vote for another more traditional candidate. Plus Sarkozy is v. popular at the moment.
Though I would say there would be an interesting chance of having two women in top global leadership positions (US and Germany) for the first time since I know of.
32 Mike
There was a time, when the editor of the Mail wouldn’t have had any doubt over who would win the GE, it would have been the Tories every time. Reading between the lines, the Mail will obviously support the Tories at the next GE, its the enthusiasm they exhibit that is doubtful
P.S.
have just watched a Sparrow Hawk kill a Collared Dove outside the window.
Much as I would like to see a Democrat in the White House I don’t Hillary as a shoo-in for the nomination. On the GOP side the Rice for President idea is going nowhere fast and if the Republican lose the House and the Senate it’ll be dead in the water. My guess is that one out of John Edwards, Bill Richardson or Ken Salazar will become the Democrat nominee while McCain will win the Republican nomination. On the other side of the channel I guess that Sarkozy will beat Royal (and her nomination is by no means assured). Also, as I’ve said before, there is an air of ‘Dewey beats Truman’ around the Labour leadership contest.
On the other hand I’d be prepared to bet that we will see a democraticallly elected female President of Afghanistan or Iraq within the next 15 years.
“Have just watched a Sparrow Hawk kill a Collared Dove outside the window.”
Wow! Life’s getting really tough on some of those London Estates.
Erm…the ‘Sparrow Hawks’ and ‘Collared Doves’ are street gangs, aren’t they?
34. Coldstone. I’ve seen one eat one in my garden before. They rip strips of meat off.
21. Nick. Thanks, Benedict will be pleased. I don’t think it’s out of ten as Iain Dale got 24. I’m still glowing in my cool status.
It would be good to see more female leaders(except Hillary Clinton!) in the world. Not sure it is going to happen any time soon.
Life is really tough, on the mean streets of the rural West Country.
Not that I don’t sometimes yearn for the urban squalor of Godalming and Guildford or my violent youth fighting for survival on the battleground that is Torbay.
re 34. I agree - the very idea that the support of the Mail could ever have been in doubt is quite amazing. Yet there had been a number of suggestions that Dacre would take a pro-Brown stance in the Mail because of his close friendship with Brown. This interview seems to clear up that.
It is interesting that Cameron-Osborne have almost no national newspapers on side. The Murdoch press is equivocal while the Telegraph at times has been totally hostile.
The odd one out apart from Japan, China and India
Interesting article Mike. That said the odds of them all being female at the same time must be slim. I wonder what odds a bookie would give?
27 - When the BNP say that labour are going too far should we laugh or cry?
I think all bets are off at the moment as to who will win the US and maybe even the French elections. World politics is just too volatile right now - Iraq, Iran, North Korea, the whole immigration/Moslem debate - western societies seem to be in serious flux, the nostrums of the past are being abandonded, but what will replace them? The Kaleidoscope has been shaken, how will the pieces fall? The toast of the post-war settlement has fallen from the breakfast table of debate, will it land butter side up? The cookie of multiculturalism is crumbling, but who will get the choccy bits?
Think I’ll go and have a lie down now.
42 - I was wondering if there was a link to BNP statements saying we should join forces with “moderate” Muslims to combat fanatics. It would certainly be a radical departure from their previous position of deporting the lot of them (sorry, “inviting them to leave”)
RE 18 Peter it woudl be interesting to see some practicle worked examples of covering a position to guarantee profit.
44. That’s their statament about Labour and the veil on their website:
http://www.bnp.org.uk/news_detail.php?newsId=1195
RE 27, So even the BNP can see Labour’s current position as dangerous stuff? We live in a truely bizarre world!
Andrew Rawnsley scathing this morning re Tories confused tax message.
You only really need the headline:
“Tory taxidermy - how to get yourself stuffed over tax”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1928649,00.html
The BNP in recent years has modified itself from a racial position to a cultural one. The old National Front still had at its heart the remnants of the Mosleyite BUF and National Movement. The people who represented that tradition have now died off. Its unlikely that anyone is going to dig up any photos of the present BNP leadership dressed in SS uniforms: unless someone out there knows better. Despite that the main reason the mainly disenchanted white working class will join the BNP, will be a mixture of racism and anti-immigration feeling. If there where no non-whites and no immigration there would be no BNP.
47 et al.
Just checked the BNP site. Truly strange. Some actually quite interesting news stories, weird blogs about the Battle of Hastings, sad little screeds about flaxen haired youngsters, remarkably sensible opinions against Brussels meddling, and then the odd gristly bit of unimproved racism.
I can see why the BNP site is the most popular political site in the country (although that is to be regretted of course), it’s a damn site more provoking and unexpected than the predictable cant you see on the major party sites.
If the BNP stopped being venomous and semi-violent buffoons they could actually prosper, I reckon. I’d guess a fair chunk of the country agrees with them on many issues.
I’ve read that BNP statement. It doesn’t say anything about gaining assistance from moderate Moslems.
Trevor Phillips’ transformation into an Enoch Powell soundalike continues, with warnings of ‘fire on the streets’..arguably a more inflammatory comment than the great man himself used.
Will he become a political pariah too, or is this an ‘officially sanctioned’ remark, and just the latest part of Labour’s cynical attempt to exploit the race/immigration issue?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2416021,00.html
See the Lib Dems have got £2m from the Rowntree Trust, (Sunday Times today), provided not spent on the £2.4m they may have to refund.
Apparently the biggest donation the Trust has made to a political party.
Must keep eating those Kit Kats!!!
14 I have long had the opinion that the next leader of the LibDems should be a woman and indeed was rather disappointed there was no female choice last time .
26 The Conservatives really ought to take the Chester seat but think they will not be close in Blyth .
52 - The remarks are anti-the government not pro-the government. It would take an extremely convoluted chain of thought to think that attacking the government in this instance was a way of supporting it.
What is also useful is that the response of both tories and lib dems (even Redwood!) has been measured and thoughtful, unlike the flailing around of the cabinet. The only other clique supporting labour are the screaming right wingers of the Melanie Phillips type and, quite frankly, labour can keep them.
44 There was a piece in the press last week that bizarrely Jean Marie Le Pen is doing that in France, and supporting Hezbollah and Hamas, taking a softer line on French muslims, and a harder one on Israel and the US. (about 2/3 of the way down on the link.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/europe/article_1210955.php/Outside_View_Gallic_intifada
(That said the source is UPI which while it used to be one of the top global news agencies is now a shadow of its former self and owned by the Moonies.)
50 The anti-European stance taken by the BNP is another break with its origins. The Union Movement the post war BUF, encouraged the idea of ‘Europe a Nation’ Mosley often talked of a European Government. The BNP knowing that Europe is unpopular with large sections of the population, is cutting its cloth accordingly.
There is no doubt in the area I live, most Tories, (there isn’t much of anything else) have views closer to BNP/UKIP than they do to the present Conservative leadership. Knowing this the BNP is encouraging a sort of English nationalism, trying to create a respectable right-wing alternative to the Conservatives and hoping to woo the working class vote from Labour. The BNP like UKIP lacks one vital ingredient, a charismatic leader preferably one with a track record in one of the main parties. Enoch Powell’s refusal to fill that role back in the 60/70’s was the NF’s biggest failure, Powell wouldn’t have touched that party with a barge pole. If he had, certainly in the wake of Heath’s brave decision to admit the Ugandan Asians, British politics would have been turned upside down!
53. Indeed, and repayment of that 2.4mn is coming ever closer…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/10/22/nlib22.xml
…but how will the ’strings’ attached by the Rowntree Trust function? you can use their money for specific purposes not connected to the repayment, but that will free up other funds to repay the Brown ‘donation’. These ’strings’ are a nonsense…this is a bail out.
Interesting, thought-provoking article Mike.
Unfortunately the thought it provoked was the prospect of Margaret Beckett (or worse, Patricia Hewitt) becoming Prime Minister.
57. Hm. I suspect a bit of Tory-baiting in that comment, Coldstone!
Having checked out the BNP’s website, I am fairly sure that the BNP’s views are at least as close to the views of the average white working class Labour-voting Brit as they are to lower-middle or middle-middle class Tories. White van man is generally patriotic, monarchist, eurosceptic, and, crucially, ethnocentric but not racist (”each to his own but live and let live”, “don’t stuff yer multiculturalism down my throat” etc etc).
If the BNP could present themselves as an ethnocentric but not racist party then they could mop up millions of working class votes, the votes that have been deserted by Labour, the Tories and UKIP, which are now all very middle class parties dominated by an haute bourgeois liberal elite.
However I think the BNP will always be hamstrung by their essential boneheadedness, the barely suppressed anger and loathing which seethes under the breastpocket handkerchief.
For that I guess we must be grateful. It still leaves the field wide open for an ethnocentric working class patriotic party, or any party that can cater for these disenfranchised and unrepresented white working class voters.
60
I don’t see any Tory baiting in anything I’ve written. The BNP/UKIP will have an appeal for a certain type of voter, from the two main political parties. I can only report on what I see and hear from mainly Tory voters (rural working class) who despise Labour, but feel no sympathy for the present Conservative leadership. I have no doubt that if UKIP, (the BNP is not represented here) handled itself properly it could get a substantial improvement in its vote. The only thing that the Tories can count on, is that their dislike of Labour might make them vote Tory in the hope of getting Labour out of government: but I wouldn’t count on it. After all you were impressed (if thats the right word) by some of the sentiments expressed on the BNP website!
61. No, Coldstone, “impressed” is not the right word to use re my reactions to the BNP site! I phrased my comments carefully, aware that numbskulls might misconstrue them.
I was “interested” and “provoked” by the “unpredictable” BNP site, while also finding it “sad”, “gristly” and “racist” in parts, etc etc. Check my words.
We should accept that the BNP site is hugely popular. We should aim to find out why, and not just decry the fact. My thesis is that a huge constituency of white working class people is being ignored by all parties. These people are the ones who are not voting Labour anymore, but don’t vote Tory. These are the millions of missing voters. And I suspect a lot of them are very grumpy indeed about mass immigraton and multiculturalism, while not being actually racist.
62
‘Remarkably sensible opinions against Brussels meddling’
‘Its a damn sight more provoking and unexpected than the predictable cant you see on the major party sites’
I’d guess a fair chunk of the country agrees with them on many issues’
I know I’m being a little selective there and perhaps you could accuse me of taking those quotes out of context, but you can understand why someone might have thought you were ‘impressed’
So are you saying if the BNP took out the racism, attracted a better class of supporter, you might possibly lean towards them.
As I say, I am not happy, in fact the opposite, that so many people who I know, should give vent to views I find abhorrent, but I can’t dismiss it, I can’t pretend it isn’t there, it’s sad!
I’m also not sure its against multiculturism, many of them are out and out rascists.
Stop being a jerk, Coldstone. You could also cite my opinion that the BNP site is ’sad’, ‘gristly’ and ‘racist’ in parts, that the BNP is staffed by ‘venomous and semi-violent buffoons’, and that the same party is ‘numbskulled’.
Clearly this criticism of the BNP isn’t good enough for you, and still classes me as a possible BNP supporter.
Grow up! It’s just boring debating with someone so juvenile, someone so obsessed with proving their absurd point - that all Tories are “racists”. Go away and get some sensible opinions. Try and aim for the opinions of a fifteen year old, that would be mental progress, at least.
I don’t think I’ve ever said that all Tories are racists, I made it pretty clear I thought that BNP/UKIP had an appeal to a particular type of voter in both main parties. I reported my experience of this subject in the area I happen to live in, which is a rural Tory area, I’m sure if I was in a Labour voting area, I would find similar views. I also don’t think I have indulged in personal abuse, something I never do. Obviously in your case the transformation of the Tories into the nice party still has someway to go.
Coldstone, you claim “I never said all Tories are racists”, which is strictly true, but rather avoids the point. You have certainly been implying some unpleasant things about Tories, in this thread.
e.g. You said above:
“There is no doubt in the area I live, most Tories, (there isn’t much of anything else) have views closer to BNP/UKIP than they do to the present Conservative leadership”
You also said:
“As I say, I am not happy, in fact the opposite, that so many people who I know, should give vent to views I find abhorrent, but I can’t dismiss it, I can’t pretend it isn’t there, it’s sad!
I’m also not sure its against multiculturism, many of them are out and out rascists.”
If this isn’t an implication that many Tories (most of the ones in your area) are out-and-out racist, BNP-supporting types, then my ar$e is my elbow.
By the way, I never claimed I was “nice”. I think I’m far from “nice”! But I do try to be honest, consistent and candid, and I try not to talk specious and immature drivel. I can give you some tips if you like.
I’m always suspicious whenever anyone claims to “know” what most people in their area really think. I would be suspicious of people who even claim to know what most people they meet really think. Hell i’d be slightly sceptical of people who claim to even know what most of their friends really think.
Some people don’t even really know what they themselves think.
I live in quite a small village, it isn’t difficult to know what people ‘think’ they tell you often enough! I also think I’m being honest and candid, perhaps an honesty that some people might find unnerving. I’ve always found this subject, brings the usual suspects out in a rash! to near the truth for them to accept. As for not being ‘nice’ sean I’ll accept your honesty on that one, probably over rated anyway!
Big wins for the ODS in the Czech local elections (and probably in the senate - run-off for that next week). They did particularly well in Prague, winning an unheard-of absolute majority on the city council and also on practically all the Prague district councils except Prague 1.
70. Who’s actually running the country at the moment?
seanT finds things to like on the BNP website? He thinks someone who disagrees is a juvenile jerk who talks drivel? Yes, it certainly is a slow news day.
71. No one! (There’s an ODS minority government, but it hasn’t been able to win a vote of confidence in parliament, so things are still on the table. But these results increase the likelihood of early elections next year).
Sorry to say it seanT & alex but there is unquestionably a strand of opinion within the Conservative Party that “have views closer to UKIP than they do to the present Conservative leadership”
To be blunt, I’m one of them.
You’ll note I’ve scrubbed out any mention of the other lot as mention of their name is anathema to all decent people.
I’m not unduly concerned at this stage of the cycle that mass defections are likely, indeed I think that positive abstention remains far more likely to be the mode of protest of the disaffected ‘right’, but when you routinely hear UKIP being described by colleagues as ‘the political wing of the Conservative Party’, it does tell you that all is not well among the activists.
The opinion polls remain key to this.
DC has the mandate and is doing what he is doing as his indisputable right as leader.
He’s still looking for his ‘Clause 4′ moment with the right wing of the party and I’m increasingly certain he will have his wish fulfilled should the advances we have made in the polls post May 2005 beging to unwind.
To summarise, we’re not going anywhere, but we do want our party back.
72-By your own admission you were a communist in your youth. I take this to mean late 60s to mid 70s. Thus, presumably you approved of Stalin and his crimes, Hungary 56, Prague 68, Khmer Rouge…All well known by the time you supported these guys. Have you ever apologised for supporting these people? Why not?
But of course, “at least ehy were not the BNP”…
73. NickP! Yes, about as newsworthy as finding that YOU have voted in favour of the Iraq war. And against a public inquiry into the war. And in favour of the invasion of Iraq. And that you have the second best record for supporting the war in Iraq in the entire House of Commons. And that you…
Etc etc ad nauseam…
Hope you had a nice break.
75. Nick Palmer was a communist????
74. “To summarise, we’re not going anywhere, but we do want our party back.” Toryboy, that is exactly how I felt during the 2005 GE campaign. I renewed my membership and I voted for who I thought best represented me, it was David Cameron. I feel the conservative party is now beginning to represent a much broader group of people within the conservative tent. For too long the party has catered to the one wing of the party which might have been tempted to go to UKIP, while neglecting a larger group who would have remained!
Here’s an amusing thing for a rainy Sunday (apologies if it’s been posted before).
It’s the politicalcompass, where you test yourself and discover where you stand on the left-right, authoritarian-libertarian axes.
http://www.politicalcompass.org
Check it out, it’s fun. I turned out (to my own surprise, and no doubt to the surprise of Nick P et al) to be only slightly to the right of centre. Less surprisingly, I was libertarian, more libertarian than any European head of state, but not as libertarian as Mozart or the Dalai Lama.
Even weirder, I’m virtually on the same place on the left-right axis as Romano Prodi. But maybe that’s because the questionnaire doesn’t ask about the EU.
72. I think Nick should be asking himself why respectable intellegent people like Sean who are not in any way racist, are finding more common sense on the BNP website than the Labour Party website.
If Labour were doing a good job and hadn’t sweept these issues under the carpet for many years, the BNP would be nowhere. Now we have Labour Ministers trying to ‘out BNP’ the BNP in order to stop the BNP becoming an ever larger and more successful party.
Labour are swirling around in a cesspool of their own making!
80. Er, I know you mean to be nice, but I didn’t find so much “common sense” on the BNP site - apart from their one article on the EU’s latest attempt to police the Internet, where the BNP (and Labour for that matter) are completely right. It’s another odious attempt at meddling in our minds - Brussels go to hell.
Apart from that, my nuanced opinion of their site is best expressed in my original remark:
“Just checked the BNP site. Truly strange. Some actually quite interesting news stories, weird blogs about the Battle of Hastings, sad little screeds about flaxen haired youngsters, remarkably sensible opinions against Brussels meddling, and then the odd gristly bit of unimproved racism.”
My opinion is that the BNP are a weird and forlorn bunch, basically. I feel rather sorry for them, more than anything. A vote for the BNP is a cry of pain.
81. Ah so Nick spun your comments then… However my point still stands even if it doesn’t refer to you, as many people think the BNP are talking sense and their website is the most visited political website.
On the doorstep I have come across all kinds of educated and otherwise sensible people who consider backing the BNP as a protest against the governmnet. I doubt they would ever back them if they could get any real power but it is worrying that the government has got so bad that people want to protest in this way.
82 Darren , there is growing evidence though that the BNP are taking more votes from the Conservatives than Labour particularly in Lancs and Yorks and see the recent Loughborough byelection so perhaps you should be worrying what the Conservatives are doing so badly that these voters are voting BNP instead of for your party .
82. Agreed, basically. Judging by site-visits a lot of people do seem to be intrigued by the BNP, presumably because they say stuff other parties simply won’t.
One non-race-related example of this is the Death Penalty. According to stats I saw the other day, about half of Brits are in favour of the Death Penalty. Yet all the major parties, Labour, the Tories, Lib Dems, the Nationalists, the Greens, even UKIP (as far as I can tell), are against the Death Penalty. Only the BNP are in favour.
So here we have a policy supported by 50% of the people, yet this policy is opposed by all the major parties, and it’s therefore left to the tiny BNP to espouse. Put it differently, on this major issue, 50% of the people are represented by a minuscule fringe party with no MPs.
Is democracy working? I don’t know. But it may indicate why the BNP thinks it has an opportunity to prosper.
I should add for the benefit of misconstruers that I myself am reluctantly OPPOSED to the death penalty, I cite it merely as an example of liberal consensus stifling some opinions.
75. Peter2 - to make matters worse Nick P has described youthful communism as ‘idealistic’…though to be fair he did not explicitly say that this ‘idealism’ extended to approving of the liquidation of so-called class enemies and counter-revolutionaries.
84 - Political parties should provide a firebreak between the often ignorant and incompatible views of a majority on certain issues. Any country with the death penalty is barbaric, Iran, China, Japan, the USA, wherever. Just because many people lean towards barbarism shouldn’t mean you give them what you want. If that hapened around the world you would have perpetual war, civil strife and ethnic violence on a scale even larger than now.
At heart I’m a libertarian so how can I dismiss majority views I hear you ask (OK maybe not)?
The problem is that people have been infantilised by a system which gives them little power over their own lives and no sense of how any power given them coule be abused and make their lives worse. Unfortunately a truly libertarian system of government can only be made to work once this has been changed. Sad, but the inevitable outcome of the sort of democracy we have been given.
(and on the political compass I am 0.5 on the right and 8.5 on the libertarian axis)
85. But is this true? Nick Palmer was a communist???
It might explain why he is so keen on ID cards, and invading sovereign countries, but still
I shall refuse to believe this calumny until we see proof, as it’s a pretty serious charge. Fair’s fair.
“Just because many people lean towards barbarism shouldn’t mean you give them what *they* want” rather.
8.5! Wow. Impressive. I was about 2 on the right and 2 on the libertarian. Quite close to Tchaikovsky. And probably quite close to Gaylord Ponceyboots himself, our dear Tory leader.
Re the death penalty, hm. I think the USA, for all its flaws, is one of the most advanced, admirable and civilised nations on the globe. Calling it barbaric is a bit silly. Likewise Japan.
But I don’t want to get into a debate on capital punishment, I was merely citing it as evidence of liberal overriding of everyday opinions.
I’m still impressed by your libertarian score. 8.5! Eat dirt, Dalai Lama!
89 - The death penalty is barbaric and something that no self-proclaimed ‘civilised society’ should be engaging in - part of this concept is a universal respect for life, no matter how vile its content may be. I happen to feel the same way about abortion too. How’s that for social conservatism?
>respectable intellegent people like Sean who are not in any way racist
91 - yeah, bit less of the “respectable”!
91. Nick, welcome! Some people on here are saying you were a communist?
I have seen no proof, and its a pretty nasty slur if it isn’t true. Though we disagree on so many things I won’t watch someone being unpleasantly libelled, especially if they aren’t around to defend themselves.
But…. were you?
92. Yes, I’d never regard myself as ‘respectable’! I’m slightly offended by the accusation.
Of all the insults hurled at Mr. Thomas, being stigmatised as “respectable” must surely be the most wounding.
94 - Only slightly offended?
:(
86/89. I’m -6.75 and -6.36
Should I be worried?
94. Sorry toffeewomblier, is that better? LOL.
I support the death penalty for first degree murder with a higher burdon of proof needed for sentencing than just that needed for a conviction.
I don’t equate that with abortion which should be avoided as much as possible. We have far, far too many in this country. I wouldn’t outlaw it but we really do need to reduce the unacceptable high levels we have.
97 Andrea. No …. they’re very good scores for technical merit and artistic impression ….. shame they came from the Italian judge !!
97. I’d be worried if you scored pluses, Andrea!
And now I must finally, finally do some work, after posting here for four hours straight.
Have a good week everyone!
97 - no need to worry … you’ll drift to the right as you get older as all sensible people should do…
(Though at -8 and -8.5 I think I score more to the left / libertarian than I did when I was 21.)
98 - Fair enough, but they are two sides of the same coin in my view.
97. Not as worried as me. I was almost exactly the same as Tony Blair!
I scored 0.75 and -4.62
So I’m slightly on the economic Right and quite strongly Libertarian. About where I expected to find myself.
89 - Seant, I think I get 8.5 because of the many things that I either strongly agree or disagree with, just putting agree or disagree would make it half that.
99. jack, I was robbed: I deserved better for the artistic impression! Clare Short even borrowed me one of her scarves for the performance!
I came out to the right of Genghis Khan!
No..not really, I scored -0.88 and 3.28. So I’m slightly to the left! economicly and more authoritarian than libertarian. No wonder I like John Reid.
I was in a very similar place to Pope Benedict so I can live with that!
-2.5 and -5.3 ….about where I expected. I’m pretty sure though that if you do the test again,you are likely to get a different result, especially if you are in a very different mood.
86 - I don’t consider that political parties (in their modern form at any rate) are essential to the working of a democracy. None of the ancient Greek city states, or modern Swiss Cantons, required political parties to take decisions on their behalf.
In general, if the majority of the voting public endorse a particular political position, and either vote directly for it, or return representatives committed to it, I think those of us who disagree have to respect that outcome.
108…yes…I can probably change replies from “strongly agree” to “agree” (or the opposite) in many cases.
109 - I’d agree with your first point but we need people to lead not to follow. Progress is created by electing those who are ahead of the people not the same as them.
I just don’t believe that, in our present society, we can trust in the wisdom of majorities, their wish to remain a majority can lead to tyranny and their needs do not automatically lead to an altruistic position on minorities. Either or both of these are inimical to a just society.
109 well for a non-party system to reflect people’s opinions across a range of issues, you really do need a Transferable Vote system in multi-member constituencies to select for at least one of the chambers.
But on the wider point, I am beginning to wonder what particular use the political parties have at the moment as they descend increasingly inro fan clubs/ego massage machines for strong (sic) leaders.
The people could yet follow Mrs Pritchard - and it weould be the fault of the present 9and previous) party leaders, not the people.
As we seem to be moving effortlessly away from a party political system to a franchise one, it will be interesting to see what happens next. Could you see MP’s being elected on their own merits i.e. as independents, putting a prospectus to the voters. It would be obvious from the prospectus what their political slant would be, but not any specific party programme. Once elected, steering groups would be formed who would put up a programme, MP’s would then divide as to which programme they could support. The majority group would become the government, chosing a leader, cabinet etc. with a four year contract, if the government breaks the terms of the contract, or find its programme is unachievable, it can re-issue a new contract, call for a vote of confidence, if it loses a GE is called.
25 - indeed, it certainly is here in the Tabman household
So you’re in residence in North Britain?
74 - http://www.guardian.co.uk/cartoons/martinrowson/0,,1885530,00.html
Political compass:
Economic Left/Right: -2.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.41
THe nearest person being the Dalai Llama
Icarus (48 ) - Thanks for drawing attention to the article by
Andrew Rawnsley in today´s Observer.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1928649,00.html
I have the feeling that things are starting to come unstuck for poor old Chameron. Like Tory Blair, he tries to be all things to all men. However, he lacks that certain something - I don´t know whether it is cunning, experience or ruthlessness - to be able to keep his party under control and on message.
So, on the tax question, he sets up a commission which tells the world that the Tory Party continues to believe in cutting taxes for the well-to-do, which means slashing services for everybody; while at the same time, poor old Chammy is talking about protecting the NHS (though at the same time privatising it) and not cutting taxes for anybody; and at the same time, taking measures to protect the environment, which somehow have no financial implications for anybody.
It is small wonder that all our Tory friends are more than a little confused about what the Tory Party actually stands for. And small wonder that its members are drifting off the the BNP. At least it seems fairly clear what they stand for.
Bugger, lost to Munster - but got a bonus point so all we need to do now is beat them in Ireland by more than 7 points to win the group (as a Liberal Democrat - always an optimist!)!
Lost because we didnt bring our kicker on until 2nd half (Burke , previously of Munster, missed two kickable ones).
“So, on the tax question, he sets up a commission ”
He didn’t, and the vote for the BNP tends to come from non-voters and in labour areas. Lib dems need to get real about the threat of Cameron, that you are so way off beam makes me worry for the future. The party leadership seem to be similarly all to cock, add to that the bizarre wooing of Clare Short and I’m worried. A number of lib dem seats are necessary to curb the authoritarians in either labour or tory parties in a future government.
One thing which made this clear was your lambasting of david(s), a lib dem as a tory! It’s akin to looking in your right wing mirror just to find yourself overtaken on the inside.
Well, you can’t say that you weren’t warned.
117 - A Lib Dem councillor no less! I was going to point that little mistake out to him at the time, but his hatred for the Conservative Party and anyone connected to it so addles his brain that the resulting misfire is simply too much fun to miss.
UK Paul, if were looking for someone to protect me from my own worst instincts, I certainly wouldn’t place a full-time British politician at the top of my list.
112 and 113, I think the election of more independents would be a good thing. Our political parties are, as you say, increasingly centralised fan clubs, with next to no ideological differences between (as opposed to within) them.
117.”The party leadership seem to be similarly all to cock”
Libdem leadership…..cock…..uhm, I think Ming was one of the leadership contenders not interested in it!
Good on you Tabman 114 - close to being an anarchist just like me.
You Orange Book Liberal Tabbers -
Economic Left/Right: -7.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.87
+3,+3 which was more to the left than I had anticipated. Maybe DC’s compassionate Conservatism isn’t as far from my Owenite beginnings as I thought…
123. Owen?! David? Michael? Garry?!!
Explain.
119 - That is an “interesting” observation for a Chairman of a Conservative Association, assuming you still are. Poor James Clappison (an old University friend): he surely deserves better.
124. -8.75; -6.96. Owenite (Robert).
Paul (117) - I agree with you in part….
However, like Sean Fear (120) - if I understand him correctly - I am concerned about the political party structure that we have in this country and the way it is developing.
I think it is important for sizable groups of opinion to be properly represented in Parliament, even though I may not agree with those opinions. Traditionally, the Tory Party represented people who believed in maintaining the hierarchy of society, in less tax for the wealthy, in violent punishment for wrongdoers and a large measure of xenophobia. That is the Tory Party as I know it.
Currently, Cameron is trying to market the Tory Party as something else. This is extraordinarily difficult - if not impossible - since he has to keep his traditional Tories “on board” at the same time. His “Hello, Sun! Hello, Clouds!” approach will not go down well with some (as apparently in inner Manchester), and the “Hug a Hoodie” line will disappoint others.
So if UKIP and the BNP are also busy repositioning themselves, which they appear to be doing, it seems to me to be more than likely that disgrunted Tories are moving away from Cameron - as they have every right to do.
Is there any evidence, Paul, to back you assertion that “the vote for the BNP tends to come from non-voters and in labour areas”? It seems to me that there are too many non-voters for superficial figures to tell us very much. What is needed is a case study of individual BNP voters to discover where precisely they have come from.
My apologies to David S. Of course I should have known better…
In self-defence, there were so many gloating Tory posters yesterday making cheap jibes about that particular local election result, that I took his sincere and honest question for just one more…. Very sorry, David.
Is an ICM poll due out in the next day or two?
re 129 Yes. I expect it to be on Tuesday in the Guardian.
Thanks Mike.
127. I’m not aware of any research into individual voters, but see p.12 of the following document which gives a cross-tabulation of 1st and 2nd preferences in the 2004 London elections.
http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf
Regarding non voters I am partly extrapolating from the tendency of the turnout to go up when there are such candidates. Some could be supporters of other parties being spurred to do so by the BNP presence but from listening to people earlier this year there were many who were of the opinion that they couldn’t otherwise vote for mainstream parties (the ‘they’re all the bloody same’ vote). I think that different polls have shown that they benefit from either labour or the tories, I suppose it just depends on the sort of areas that are polled.
Here’s a quote from Anthony Wells regarding the nature of the BNP vote - “In the London elections a high BNP vote correllated with a high proportion of skilled or semi-skilled manual workers (C2 and D social classes), especially C2 voters. Wards with a larger number of older voters tended to have a higher BNP vote, as did wards with a low average level of education. There was, however no link between ward with a high number of benefit claimants and support for the BNP. The study suggests that the BNP gain their support from older, poorly educated people, but that their support comes not not from the very poorest, the unemployed and those reliant upon benefits, but from the skilled working class.”
115-Tressage
‘It is small wonder that all our Tory friends are more than a little confused about what the Tory Party actually stands for. And small wonder that its members are drifting off the the BNP. At least it seems fairly clear what they stand for.’
The evidence from the local elections less than 6 months ago was that New Labour voters were switching in large numbers to the BNP, Barking & Dagenham ring any bells?
132. Thanks Kevin….so among voters who voted BNP as their first preference in 2004 London Mayoral elections, 49.2% chose UKIP candidate as their second preference, 22% Norris, 7.7% Ken and 7.6% Hughes
21.9% of UKIP voters voted BNP as second preference, 6,9% of Tory voters did it, 2.1% of Libdems voters and 1.6% of Ken voters
133 I am sure you are correct that that a fair proportion of BNP voters come from previous non-voters and that although you are correct that their support is higher in Labour areas there is much evidence that their increase in support in those areas comes more from Conservative than Labour voters . This was clearly true in the May locals in Lancs and Yorks and the recent Loughborough byelection .
115: The Rawnsley article is revealing; it shows the depths to which Labour now have to sink to land a blow on Cameron:
‘…this is politics in the raw and for the highest stakes. His opponents can pick and choose from his commissions as well. They will pick the policies that will cause most difficulty for David Cameron and choose to present them as the real agenda of the Conservative party.’
So when Cameron’s opponents ‘choose to present [these recommendations] as the real agenda of the Conservative party’ are they aware that in fact they are not the real agenda of the Conservative party? And, if they are aware, are they not then wilfully misleading the public and perpetrating a lie? I know politics can be unpleasant, but personally I think truth and honesty should be strived for, and the embarking on a deliberate project of deception is something to be condemned. It’s interesting that someone like Rawnsley can advocate the use of deliberate deception as a political tool seemingly without a second thought.
for Andrea (yesterday’s thread 155)
Don’t forget Tim Farron……..never out of the Westmorland Gazette, and it is through those pages rather than “national profile” that he will retain that which was achieved in 2005.
137 - Interesting, but hardly surprising Robusticus; considering it is Andrew Rawnsley we are talking about here.
The idea that 8% of lib dem voters put UKIP as their second preference akes