Mori poll gloom for Cameron
October 23rd, 2006
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Labour move to 2% lead
Partial details of the Mori poll for October are just out and show the Tories unchanged at 35% but Labour moving up a point to 37%. The online version of the FT, which is reporting the survey, does not include a figure for the Lib Dems.
It will be recalled that last month Mori became the only pollster since April to report a Labour lead. Since then there have been other surveys showing the Tories ahead, or in one case neck and neck but none reporting a Labour lead.
Unlike the other pollsters Mori use face to face interviews and, more importantly, take no measures to check out whether their sample is politically representative by asking how people voted last time and weighting accordingly.
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Mori has a reputation for volatility. In the same poll a year ago it reported Labour 6% ahead, followed by a 10% margin in November which was suddenly turned round to a 9% Tory lead three weeks later.
If this week’s ICM and YouGov polls show a similar trend then things might be difficult for David Cameron.
There’s another poll today by Populus in the Times for Opinion Leader Forum. The group was “people who are inclined to vote Labour at present, but say there is a fair chance of them going to another party, and those currently inclined to vote for another party or unsure about which one to vote for, but who say there is a fair chance of switching to Labour” Amongst this Gordon Brown would be preferred as Prime Minister to David Cameron by 51% to 24%.
It is very hard to assess this without the full data because it is based on a sample 242 and is a sub-set from a larger survey involving 1,018. Normally the total number of Labour voters you would expect in such a survey would be less than 300 so we need to know how many fall within the 242. The description of the sample is not the standard Populus one for swing voters.
My guess is that the detail will show that this is not much out of line with other Populus Polls and this is just being presented in this way for a political purpose. Clearly if what the other 776 respondents had said had been favourable to Gordon then that would have been released as well.
I am making a request under the British Polling Council disclosure rules for a copy of the whole survey.
Betting news. The Deputy Labour leadership markets were taken down within an hour or so of the suggestion here on Saturday morning that Jon Cruddas was a good bet at 8/1. Will those markets return today and, if so, what will Cruddas be priced at? I for one am looking to place more money on him.
Mike Smithson
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If the deputy leadership markets do reappear then I shall be interested in the prices of any female candidates.
I have never counted Mori worth anything.
It will be interesting to see how ICM polls, though. I believe that’s out tomorrow? That’s the real test.
That is really a daft thing to say, Commentator. Of course Mori is worth something. That you don’t like the result is obvious. Oh well…The Box Beckons
Part of the problem seems to Dave himself. He is now at -2% approval in Mori according to the article.
Sorry, if anyone saw this, but I loved this quote from the BBC website - ripe for misinterpretation.
*Earlier this week former minister Lord Forsyth, head of the tax commission, told the BBC…
“We weren’t asked to devise a strategy for the Conservative Party to win the next election,”*
I for one don’t set much store by this poll - in fact I doubt it’s worth even reporting Mori polls, let alone making a splash on them.
It’s pretty clear that the mood in the country is that it’s time for a change and when people contemplate David Cameron, they like what they see.
Let’s not get side-tracked …
Paul, Mori is really not worth anything. See any of Mike’s posts passim, or even this one. I said the same when they showed us with a 9 point lead. Let’s see if ICM shows a Lab lead. I highly doubt they will, but if they do, I have a theory.
5 - Better than the other party leaders?
Some encouragement for the Cameron/Osborne approach on taxes from this YouGov survey in today’s Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/10/23/ntory23.xml
I wonder if there was also a voting intention question that may be revealed later.
Eleanor at 7 : I hope you’re right. I can’t think of any particular event or initiative since the conference which might have made him less popular. By the way, a yougov poll in the Telegraph shows the majority of voters support his present stance on tax.
Gloomy news indeed for Cameron. Ah well…
But I don’t agree with Mike (it is not a crime). Mori use a perfectly sound interviewing methodology (the one that the majority of social researchers would still want to use if they had the money). The only factor they suffer on is that they have only half heartedly joined the vogue (I say vogue, but I mean 13 year history) of changing the point of politicial opinion polling to ‘predicting’ elections. The big change has come since participation in elections has started falling and polls have had to ‘correct’ for differential turnouts. ICMs method of correction is far more sophisticated. My guess is that Mori long for the days when correction was minimal and figures were reported ’straight’, with ‘don’t knows’ actually included, and top line figures showing ‘actual’ political support.
Unfortunately papers do not want polls that show the real political support figures in this country. Where are the headlines for Lab 17, Con 15, LD 12 Others 3 which I believe were about the averages before correction before the last election (actually there is a great headline there - no party trusted at all!)
My point was (before I got to waffling) that Mori get representative samples and the methodology is scientific. So do not write it off so easily.
And that is fantastic spin, John O. You could present that in a more negative way i.e. ‘Most people are not convinced that the Tory ambition to cut taxes is the right way, and Cameron demonstrates he is stuck between a rock and a hard place on the issue.’
I can’t go along with the Mori bashing. It may be the least accurate in a technical sense but its results are still of interest. As long as they are consistent in their approach and they are open about it, I can’t see why anybody should complain. We just have to use our understanding of Mori results intelligently. It’s not a lot to ask. Personally I wouldn’t read too much into any poll at this stage of the electoral cycle. To me, all the polls seem to be saying the same thing - ‘everything to play for’.
Re Cruddas, I believe Will Hill will be reopening their book at 9am. Mike and I will be playing ‘fastest finger first’ in the hope of getting (more) on at 8-1.
Paul,
I’m afraid hard factual evidence contradicts you, doesn’t it? The correlation of all the other polls within a point or two, the evidence at the actual poll last year (surprise: Mori weighted their exit poll so as not to be shown up and it was therefore accurate).
You don’t weight, you get the John Kerry exit polls, oversampling women and African-Americans. In other words, you get it wrong. Voodoo polling never works. Ask John Zogby.
This is not to say there might not actually be a small Lab lead, we’ll find that out tomorrow. But if there has been a filip in Labour’s position it is due entirely to one thing; Straw’s comments over the veil. That will be temporary.
Re 15. I bet the price will not be 8/1 though.
Re 17. Because I believe that Cruddas and Brown are now a “double act” I’m laying some of my Brown position to release more cash to bet on the deputy.
7 Eleanor. How do you know?
[13 etc] The reason we don’t read polls of the Lab 17, Con 15, LD 12 Others 3 type is that such a result - i.e. over half the respondents not responding - is of no use to the pollster’s client, be it a Party or a newspaper. And the reason why “raw” results are of that type is that it’s an answer to the hypothetical question “if there were a General Election to-morrow” which pollsters use even after elections have been called - at least they did in 1992 (they all say they’ve improved since then, I know). It’s also the reason I rarely comment on polls.
Still, it’s good to know that people like Eleanor [7] have already called the next election for the Tories, who therefore don’t need to worry about such irrelevant trivia as policies or how to fund the darn thing…
Nick Palmer has made the point, and he is right, that there are years to go before the next election.
Figure it out:
1. Blair will not go until summer
2. Leadership election
3. Brown in place by autumn
4. One week at least to appoint a cabinet
5. No possibility of an election til winter ‘07. Now, assuming the parties are neck and neck or Cameron has a small lead, will he go to the polls? Will he risk his life’s ambition? Past performance has shown him to be a political coward of the first water. No way he risks being the shortest PM on record. He’s waited his whole life to be PM. He will take at least a year and more likely 18 months.
Thus…. 2008 end - early 2009, and if you ask me, I predict summer ‘09, running out the clock like Major. Difference will be that Major won an election.
17. Did you ctach Brian Walden on Five Live yesterday. Brilliantly insightful. In about thirty secnds he laid out what Osborne and Cameron were doing and why. He clearly rates Cameron and Walden doesn’t dish put praise freely.
So to me the interesting news is the underlying news and how it will affect politics a year or two down the line. And I think you can sum it up as: NHS cuts. Brown’s getting the funding formula wrong will become ever more obvious. Lose a ward, lose a seat. That simple really, I derive my confidence in a Tory victory from the state of the NHS.
21. FWIW, my prediction is October 2009, as late as he can leave it without reviving Synny Jim memories.
18. Mike, did you hear anything from Betfair after your article a couple of weeks ago? I e-mailed them at the time and received an acknowledgment but nothing more.
I have a few bets on Cruddas at odds of 16/1 and higher. Still wouldn’t write off Hain, or the emergence of another candidate. Not sure whether being seen as Brown’s running mate would be more of a help than a hindrance to Cruddas.
First of all its three years to the GE, all polls taken now are of dubious worth.
On the deputy leadership, some interesting comments by Johnson over the weekend on education. If he repeats these in the MSM, it might not help him too much.
http://thedaily.wordpress.com/2006/10/22/johnson-read-my-lips-no-less-selection/
18/25. I think, unlike Hain and Harmann, Cruddas is the only candidate so far who hasn’t openly backed Brown in the end.
Perhaps most disappointing for the Conservatives was the coverage these two polls got on radio this morning. The bulletins also added this line from the FT article which might be the most significant
“Increasing numbers of people have become disenchanted with Mr Cameron during his 10 months as party leader, according to the poll. His net approval rating has fallen from 14 points in January to minus two points this month”.
24. ’synny’ Jim? do you know something we don’t?
Mori is a bit of a joke in my eyes, ever since the debacle last election.
Back from the Baltic to find… little change.
The pattern is consistent- the Conservatives are not doing well enough in the current polls to form a government. Granted that it is years until the next election, but Blair made an early impact and kept his lead until the day he became PM.
It was always going to be tricky to go from the current Conservative tally of 196 (still a lower level than than Labour’s 1983 nadir of 209)to gain an overall majority. The Tories have got to be way ahead- particularly in the light of the discussions that we have had on “swingback” - and they are not.
So, from a betting perspective- maybe the interesting bets are in hung parliament territory, or, if you really want a punt, a Labour victory.
Little wonder Labour have bounded into a massive 2% lead over the Tories when it’s quite clear from the caption picture that the Tory Children Sweet policy of taxing chocolate to offset the abolition of Inheritance Tax has gone done like the Titanic !!
…………………..
The headline MORI is good for Labour morale and will set the headless chickens on ConHome off on one, but the figures are broadly inline with other recent polls.
Two factors from the MORI and the Populus that should give some cause for genuine concern to Tory supporters is the 16 point drop in Cameron’s approval rating in the former and the 27% point lead than Brown enjoys over Cameron in the latter among swing voters.
One other point I think worthy of note is the veil effect. I wonder if Labour strategists are intent on a “Soccer Mum” policy similar to the Carl Rove policy in the States. Ensuring that security and related issues remain high on the agenda and forcing both opposition parties to appear weak on the issues. Certainly the veil issue had the Tories on the back foot for some time and both their and the Lib Dems opposition to ID cards may not be as politically useful as they know think.
Tory MPs are set to vote for their 3 representatives on party’s top board. 9 candidates are contesting the election: Christopher Chope, John Wittingdale, David Wilshire, David Davies, Graham Stuart, David Maclean, Peter Luff and Richard Ottaway.
Their internal elections don’t seem as “exciting” as Labour elections for the NEC though
Many thanks for keeping the presure up on the polsters Mike. I can’t see Mori being hugely relevent given their lack of weighting and I find the way the populous poll is structured a bit odd. We definately need far more information.
When are the Yougov and ICM polls out?
34 Andrea. I note the headbangers are represented !
Jon Cruddas cut to 5/1 with William Hills in their Deputy Leader market. Hilary Benn is a total ‘false favourite’ and I think there’s still potential Cruddas’ price to be cut further.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp
36. Jack, but will they make it?
I’m not an expert of Tory internal elections
If you compare these figures to MORI’s figures at the same period after the ‘92 election Labour were 18 points ahead and they never went below this figure till the ‘97 election.
Though the veil episode was unedifying you couldn’t find a Labour politician without an opinion. It was surely the perfect opportunity for Cameron to show his ‘liberal’ credentials and go against the mob. But as so often when leadership is required he’s is nowhere to be found
Though the electorate no longer trust our politicians I do think they admire leadership.
37. Can anyone post me the odds? I can’t access the William Hill page!
Just to say Labour were 3 points ahead and led by John Smith at the same time in the 1992 parliament. (By todays polling methodoligy) So saying Blair was ahead is not relevent as he was not leader.
Also the BNP are worried about Labours stance being to anti Muslim. Bizzare.
37 HenryG. Mindnumbingly stupid price !!!!!
Cruddarse is a three legged stalking donkey in a political Grand National and stands as much chance of being Deputy Leader of the Labour Party as John Prescott does of winning the Nobel Prize for Literature !
42. I think he can have more chances that what you think (especially if his contenders remain just Hain and Harman)
Interesting poll. Despite being Labour, I don’t support the Cameron bashers on this site - he is doing - on the whole - a great job for the Tories.
But I sense that after a year, that the public are getting a little bored with the PR stuff and don’t see much of a statesman there. He reminds me of Kinnock.
I have always suspect that he will personally ovcerreach himself and try to do too much.
Such gems as - wading into the veil debate to say “too many politicians are wading into the veil debate” and launching an offical Tory internal tax policy commission to dimiss its findings as unofficial - were not a great help to his ambitions IMO.
Agree polls this far out of not much relevance. But have you seen the front page lead headline in todays FT:
“Cameron falls out of flavour with voters”
Now not many voters read the FT but if the message starts to get round that the Tories are no more likely under Cameron to regain power then perhaps the men in the grey suits will send for a real tax cutting Conservative leader.
43 Andrea. Will Cruddarse get enough MPs to be nominated ??
His name recognition is practically zilch and Labour will not elect a split ticket Deputy to oppose our Gordon ! Endex.
I was pointing out some months ago that Cameron’s ratings were in decline . Conservatives on here were rather discornful to say the least at the time bit sorry chaps and chapesses I was right then and the FT headline shows the trend is being picked up by the media . As to the reasons for it , to me the reason is clear - he is a PR strawman with no policies and gives the impression that he has no firm principles that he will put before his pursuit of power .
Mike Smithson
Do you think there is value in Jon Cruddas at 5/1?
48 stjohn. If there was a Betfair market punting on Cruddarse would have been highly profitable but betting on the outright with little or no scope for hedging is lunacy at 5/1 !!!!!!!!
This opinion poll is pretty much irrelevant, as to will all the other polls be until we are 3-6 months into the next Labour premiership.
I am increasingly thinking though that Brown’s strategy should be based on a “smash and grab” approach- a positive election campaign, setting out a new policy platform that separates him from Blair, a couple of new people in his team and a snap election in spring 07 before the obligatory, corrosive, saturated media coverage sets in.
re 48. I’ve not rushed into bet yet but then I’ve got a pile on already. I’ll be doing a big piece on this in the next couple of days.
47 Yes but,
Surely, it is undeniable that Cameron has made a massive impact on British politics. I can’t see all that much that he could have done better or who would do a better job.
You just can’t polish a turd.
The strategy at the moment is somehow to get people to think the Tories have changed and aren’t the Tories of old. Surely, long-term success would come by not pretending to be something else. When you see the old dears round here trying to be hip - it’s laughable.
If he played it with a straight bat I think that he would have a better chance in the end.
51. Thanks. I will hold fire as you shrewdies have hoovered up all the tasty prices.
41.Even worse then Benedict. Labour led by 16 points on MORI in October 1993 against John Smith. As far as I know MORI haven’t changed their methodology apart from only counting those ‘certain to vote’.
10. Interesting Yougov poll on taxation. Completely impossible to learn anything other than people prefer public services to tax cuts but prefer tax payers other than themselves to pay for them!
RE 50 Fair point Tyson. You may also be right about what Brown would have to do. I doubt that he would do it that way though.
50 I doubt calling a snap election less than 2 years after the previous one and therefore less than halfway through a 5 year term would be a success . It was one of the reasons that I always thought that it would be in GB’s interests for Blair not to go before 2008 when seeking a new mandate much further into this parliament would have been more justifiable .
Rubbish poll for DC but he’s got until May to get back infront.
51 Mike S. Cruddarse … “I’ll be doing a big piece on this in the next couple of days.”
Presumably entitled “Enter Penury All Who Bet Cruddas Now !!” or “The Workhouse Beckons For Cruddas Punters !!”
50.” a snap election in spring 07 ”
I don’t think he’ll leader in spring 07
RE 54 Roger, very few people here take Mori that seriously. My comments are based on the adjusted ICM figures which showed taht the Labour lead at the comparative time was 3%, and just before John Smith died they rose to 10-12% ish. Then Blair took over and wavered at the 10% to 15% mark, but if you want a comarable time for those leads you will have to wait till well into next year.
If any one missed the comentary on the BNP being less harsh on Muslims than Labour are now there are some links on my blog.
Roger;
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/10/11/icm-solves-the-great-historical-polling-mystery/#comments
especially note the overlay I produced showing how labour’s performance after 92 compares with the current conservative performance, almost identical (even down to the recent decrease in tory lead)
46. I imagine he will comfortable get his nominations, perhaps the most out of all the candidates. He has a 6 whole months to further raise his profile through party and union meetings while his opponents will be working through their Ministerial boxes.
From what I understand he is building/has a formidable campaign machine that will give him every opportunity of being heard and supported by the people who will be voting in the election.
Most importantly, I think people in the party are warming to him as a person, politician as a fresh face. I think if he was pitching for the Deputy PM job it would harder, but he is wanting to redefine the job around being deputy leader of the party and not DPM. If I were Gordon Brown, the prospect of someone fresh and not a political threat and who will focus his energies on rebuilding it in time for the next general election must be an attractive prospect.
44 Jonathan- how do you know Cameron is doing a great job for the Tories? Michael Howard, David Davis, even Liam Fox would have established sustained opinion poll leads for the Tories this last year- after all we have had the spectre of Labour doing its damndest to repeat the Tory mistakes on the Major era, an increasingly hostile anti government press (rightly so)- all this set against the backdrop of the ongoing foreign policy disastrous ventures with Bush.
the poll indicated disapproval was particularly marked among women voters
Oooh dear. Not going to plan, is it?
Andrea- thanks snap spring 08 election. It is shocking to think we are already coming to 07- where do the years go?
Of the two polls populus is the worthless one, miniscule sample size and manipulation of which Alastair Campbell would be proud. MORI are doing themselves no favours though, they’ve made themselves easy to dismiss and every time you get a poll there is little widespread belief in their figures. They really are going have to change something to maintain credibility.
Annoying that the lib dem figure seems becalmed below or around 20%, I would hope that the current climate of illiberalism was going to help things.
On the subject of general elections and when here’s a thought…..
Brown leads Cameron on a few things one being ‘good in a crisis’. When he takes over my gues is that Brown will call an election in who can deal with the ‘problem’ (and we’ve seen the direction that labour are going in that regard). As this can be easily manufactured through government lines I wouldn’t be at all surprised if we found ourselves in such as an early election. When fear faces optimism fear often wins, people are easily scared. Their only real problem is the lack of money.
I am amazed that someone who as been in politics as long as Mike can believe that the big beasts in the Labour Party will allow a new boy to even get close to the Deputy leader slot.
I would take very short odds that the next Deputy will be an existing member of the Cabinet.
“Certainly the veil issue had the Tories on the back foot for some time and both their and the Lib Dems opposition to ID cards may not be as politically useful as they now think”
I’m not sure I understood this Jack? You’re surely not suggesting ID cards are now important so that those with a veil can the rest of us a clue!!
Don’t the photos on their ID cards of people in veils look very similar?
68. Icarus, its the big beasts of the labour movement that approached Cruddas to stand in the first place! He’s a modest guy and not one to do something half-cocked. He’s only been in parliament since 2001 but he’s done a lot more than that for him to be known by the influential players in the party:
Since 1989, Jon Cruddas has worked for the Labour Party. Until 1997 he worked in the policy department, then in the General Secretary’s office under Larry Whitty, and later Tom Sawyer. Between 1997 and 2001, Jon worked in Downing Street as a link between the trade unions and the Prime Minister.
So why is he not a minister?
56- Mark Senior- meant a snap 08 election- but otherwise I completely agree. I always thought that it was in Brown’s interests to let Blair serve a good proportion of his 3rd term, and then to take the reigns shortly before a normal election cycle. Personality and ambition gets in the way of good strategy.
3 factors that will stop Brown calling a snap election;
-the press will be essentially hostile- open to charges (particularly Murdoch) of putting his own ambitions before the country
-finances
-Brown isn’t intuitively a risk taker (the snap 70 election backfired on Wilson)
69 roger. No. My point is that ID cards would become a a swing issue if security is high on the agenda. The veil issue is related because it taps into the fear agenda. Hence my reference to the “Soccer Mums” strategy.
Hardly a noble stategy but it’s politics !!
72. From what I understand, he could well have been offered a position in the past and turned it down.
74 - Exactly my point Jack, the prospect of an election based on fear, it’s the Bush strategy and it worked for him so labour may copy.
These last few weeks have been some of the most disgraceful I have witnessed from a major political party, it’s the old conservative tactic from the eighties transposed to labour. What sort of denial labour voters are going through now I can’t even begin to imagine.
76 ukpaul. Indeed. The irony is that as the Tories become all touchy feely Labour morphs into a strong arm BNP lite grouping on some issues ! Funny old world.
Off to Inverness now …….. speak later.
76. But Ukpaul these tactics are aimed at a specific subset of Labour voters who have no reason to go into denial as they hold views on security/immigration etc. which are not at variance with the line Labour is now pushing.
My estimate of the Lib Dem tally in this poll is as follows:
Con -1% on last FT / MORI poll
Lab +5% on last FT / MORI poll
LD -4% on last FT / MORI poll (which would put them at 20%)
Oth Unchanged on last FT/ MORI poll
re 68. I refer you to my Saturday morning piece here when I told of how I had travelled up from St Pancras the evening before with one of the “big beasts” of the Labour movement and the key player in the trade union-party interface. The Cruddas proposition is different from all the other candidates - he’s not looking to be Deputy PM and he’s not interested in being a minister. He sees the role as being the representative of the wider party and Labour movement within the echelons of power.
Given what has happened these past few years this is very appealing to the trade unions and others.
There have been suggestions that a deal might be struck with Brown. In exchange for getting the support of the key union leaders Brown would support “their man” for deputy.
That’s why the price has dropped from 125/1 to 5/1 in less than a month.
Jack W et al, it’s the strategy I’d pursue if I was in charge of Labour. What they lose among Muslim and GMW voters, they can more than regain among voters along the Thames Estuary and in Northern marginals.
76 ukpaul- on one side I would agree with you, but (like your good self heralding from the NW)- I have been struck on my last few visits to Preston and Blackburn how many women wear veils/ and or burkhas. 10 years ago there were none. The veil is an indication of the increasing radicalisation of the Muslim community.
IMO opinion liberalism has not got the answers for Islamism. Intuitively I feel that reactionary policies only make matters worse, but 9/11 happened, 7/7 happened, Athens happened. We are dealing with an increasinlgly hostile and radicalised element of the Muslim community- the veil typifies this row.
I really do not believe the government is playing the fear card, or that it is deliberately picking a fight with the Muslims.
78 - So what are the other labour voters supposed to do? Historically labour has been welcoming of difference and sceptical of bellicosity, how do those labour supporters feel at supporting a party which has moved so far away from them?
I see two main parties making a conscious choice at the moment, to become more liberal in the case of the tories and less liberal in the case of labour. One factor, as has been said here, is ‘can Cameron keep the authoritarian right or can he do without them?
But….
There is now an equal and opposing problem for labour which I would expect to become of equal importance (if the opposition parties have any sense), ‘Can Brown (or whoever) keep the social democrats or can he do without them’?
As for the lib dem strategy it’s obvious, thrust into labour territory to peel away those voters uneasy with the labour shift whilst fighting local battles based on personalities/better managerial ability to keep seats from and maybe take some from the conzservatives.
Surely the most significant point about this poll-if it’s findings are repeated-is the future of Cameron. So far -from a Tory perspective-he’s been given plenty of rope. But if this isn’t seen to be bringing results then there isn’t any doubt that like all his predecessors-except for Howard-he’ll do an immediate about turn.
……instead of being photographed with babies he’ll be photographed with Rottweilers. “Ah that’s our boy”!!
84. Cameron won 330 seats in May. He’d have to lose seats next May to be in trouble.
RE 82, Tyson, the BNP do, and they think that Labour is taking a dangerous position. You can’t accuse them of being all touchy and feely about Muslims either.
My Big Beasts: Straw, Beckett, Hain, Johnson, Reid, Darling, Hutton, Hewitt, Kelly, Harman, Browne, McCartney.
Mike’s Big Beast: Tony Dubbins.
I have no bets on the Deputy “race” - still waiting for Betfair to get a book going.
l repeat my comment on the last thread: Has anyone spotted that Electoral Calculus changed its seat predictions on Saturday p.m. to take into account mid October polls? [Obviously not including latest MORI.] Suggesting Labour majority (first time for a while?) of 8. Also a LIBDEM meltdown to 26, merciless with Ming?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk
I’m in Preston occasionally and the one things that struck me (as opposed to say London) was the way that some whites exuded a menace near muslim men or women (I was actually quite scared in a way that I never am down South) and the way that the muslims were trying to be invisible.
I mentioned this earlier in the weekend but the veil is a complete non-issue, it’s a dog whistle. Labour are using it as an attempt to be seen to address other things but what they don’t (or maybe they do) realise is that a dispiriting section of the white population have seen it as a green light for all their hatred and fear to bubble to the surface.
(Still depressed after losing 4-0….)
86 With the number of whole council elections next year last fought in 2003 there is no doubt that the Conservatives will have a good net gain . A better comparison will be the Mets and Districts with annual elections where the Conservative gain in May was 200 seats .
4-0? Who’s yer side?
92 - Man City.
83. This is a defensive strategy. Labour has already haemmoraghed middle class leftie/student/ethnic minority support to the Lib Dems at the last GE and is now trying to prevent its core working class vote (which did largely stick with it last time) from being eroded as well. There is also probably a second string to this - which is to make life awkward for Cameron’s ‘repositioning’ Tories - but any results there will be seen as a bonus.
89 You would be much wiser to use Anthony Well’s swingometer which based on more accurate data . Based on the same figures the results are Con 253 Lab 322 LibDem 44 Others 31 .
If Cameron loses his “winner” image then he is done for, the money will dry up and the Tories could enter the abyss, having done a deal with the devil and lost.
As such he must do everything he can to keep the “mo” and stay a “winner”.
Tories, does Cam have any real enemies yet in the party? Could Liam Fox mount a challenge from the right?
re 84. Mori simply does not have the clout that ICM and YouGov have. If Cameron is doing poorly in those polls this week then there is an issue.
Remember in the final polling using the same methodology before the General Election Mori gave Labour a 10% lead. They did another poll four days later using a very different approach and this brought their numbers down. For instance for this one poll Labour “certain to votes” were regarded as having less value than those saying the same for other parties. Also they used a system of weighting based on newspaper readership to deal with the don’t knows and won’t says.
Yet after the election Mori reverted to its previous methodology.
94 - I agree with your analysis but it doesn’t stop it having the stench of fear and hate about it.
96. No and no. You are getting over-excited.
‘89. TC ‘electoral calculas’ is for anoraks.
No connection with real world in the constituencies concerned.
96 - Becoming *less* liberal is dealing with the devil, that’s what labour are doing. At least Cameron is going in a more enligtened direction.
93. Ah yes, even in your 1-0 win over our lot the signs were not good. Luckily we’ve learned, just about, how to finish the odd chance since then. Little Cesc, you are the King, and fully worthy of a completely off-topic mention on a politics site…
96. “does Cam have any real enemies yet in the party?”
http://conservativehome.co.uk/
98. I can understand your point of view, but this is politics. Labour can be attacked for hypocrisy, inconsistency etc. over this, but the key question for me is whether or not the public have sufficient residual trust in/respect for the government to take this policy line seriously.
103. Haha yes I think that rather proves my point.
[80] I’m going to join the Cruddas-sceptics, I think. He seems to be campaigning for the Party Chairman’s job whereas surely Brown will want someone who has the clout to keep sulky Cabinet ministers (of which all governments have a surplus) in shape and on-message: he’s bound to have a rival who’ll campaign on just that platform. Yes, as presently constituted, the Party Chair can’t do an effective job, Cruddas has that right. He might have done better to campaign first for a change in Labour’s constitution to provide it with two Deputy Leaders when in government - but that window may have closed by now.
“These last few weeks have been some of the most disgraceful I have witnessed from a major political party”
Good heavens! And it seems like only yesterday that Letwin was threatening asylum seekers with desert islands, Howard was insulting Gypsies and all of them were threatening to rip up the Human rights Act! Disgraceful indeed!!
88. C’mon, Harriet Harman is not a big beast.
Icarus I guess it all depends on your analysis of power in the labour movement and the respective weight the different players have in an election of this nature. According to the Observer:
“He [Jon Cruddas] has the support of seven union general secretaries and pledges of up to £125,000 in campaign finance, plus access to union databases of more than a million party members, which could prove invaluable organisationally.”
This will be a fascinating contest.
90 uKpaul- all too familiar results- but back to the veil point- intuitively believe that authoritarian/ reactionary responses only make matters worse (and often have unintended consequences)
But that said, how do you deal with Islamism? Why are many more women wearing the veil in the UK ? Islamism is a real and growing threat- by ignoring it (as the Lib Dems) politicians are avoiding the issue, in addressing it they (Labour) are accused of playing the race and fear cards.
At the end of the day most of Labour’s authoritarianism is dominated in trying to combat Islamism. Not quite all- some of Labour’s authoritariansim is directed at combating entrenched anti social behaviour that impacts mostly on poor people (ie ASBO’s).
Liberalism does not provide any answers for dealing with Islamism, or responding to entrenched, generational, anti social behaviour.
107 - So why did you attack one but now support the other?
109. “Liberalism does not provide any answers for dealing with Islamism, or responding to entrenched, generational, anti social behaviour.”
Yes it does - it proposes an internationalist approach to international problems (like Islamist extremism) and increased education and work opportunities to combat anti-social behaviour.
From ConservativeHome - I recommend a daily dose of ConservativeHome for all non Conservatives - It really cheers me up!
“Because no other mainstream pollster is finding such volatility ConservativeHome has dropped MORI from its poll of polls. Ipsos - since it purchased MORI - has begun to overhaul polling operations in a bid to tackle this volatility problem. ConservativeHome.com will restore MORI to its poll of polls when that overhaul is complete.”
Using my usual translation service:
“We ignore polls that give us answers we dont like!”
The absolute figures that any poll produces are not much use (and they can never be proved or disproved) - but trends are useful - and the trend is against Cameron.
109 - I disagree about liberalism, it provides much better answers than those of authoritarians. They don’t provide an answer at all, they just cover up the problem. Those affected by laws stifling business, personal liberty and so on would also disagree about your view that government authoritarianism is mostly against a perceived enemy.
In any case labour are avoiding the issue, they are talking about a veil when that is not the real issue at all, what they are doing is fanning the flames of distrust by this weakness and, further, of hate.
112 - Icarus – ConservativeHome will be delighted with this poll. Anything that shows us behind Labour is to be celebrated over there.
112. I’m afraid I disagree with you on both accounts:
a) ConsHome, or at least the comments on it, make me want to bang my head against a wall until it bleeds.
b) I was going to suggest earlier that this site perhaps stops giving MORI so many headlines. Without wanting to get into a tedious debate about methodology, I really don’t see the point in MORI - and I’m speaking from quite an impartial position (at the moment).
I’m not sure what ‘Labour’ are supposed to have done? Jack Straw has said he prefers to see constituents who visit him unveiled. I can understand why. Sometime ago someone said they found ‘hoodies’ intimidating. Again I can understand why. Keeping your face masked has some uncomfortable connotations and If anyone-politician or otherwise-wants to point this out that’s OK with me.
95 and 100
I agree with you both, obviously, and yes I am an anorak. As a former councillor and winning parliamentary election agent in a big marginal, I am very much aware of things on the ground, though. Yes I do check swingometers and seat predictors daily, like most anoraks and M.P.s. Then I get on with the real stuff: getting people actually to vote. Politics is much more about getting your own people out, rather than swinging votes, these days.
The point about electoral calculus is that it is just one indicator, amongst many, and there was a mini-watershed there Saturday p.m.
Obviously, though, both Wells and Electoral C. indicate significant LIBDEM losses. Not suggesting this will happen, just another worrying indicator for LIBDEMS.
112 Indeed this trend is informative. Those talking a few weeks ago of tipping points and Cameron having a majority were certainly getting carried away themselves.
The thing is for some reason I sense the Tories are now vulerable in a way they haven’t been for a while. It’s a subtle thing, but up until recently I felt it was a total waste of time attacking the Tories. The public was giving them the benefit of the doubt - the best thing to do was to shut up. I am not sure that this is the case any more.
I wonder whether the public is getting a bit tired of Labour bashing. Labour have been on the back foot since 2002. Quite a long time.
Not sure if this has been posted already, Times piece on distorted polling reporting in the papers.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2416848,00.html
Is the anti Muslim agenda that seems to be being developed really any different to the frequent anti Catholic periods in British history?
As Mrs Beeton nearly put it “First find your scapegoat”
118 - “If Cameron loses his “winner” image then he is done for, the money will dry up and the Tories could enter the abyss”
I’m not sure it’s just Tories that get carried away with themselves.
The credibility of Ipsos MORI with its current methodology is close to zero. I think ConservativeHome are wise to remove it from their averages until it does come up with some methodology that suggests that it is acccurate in its results. Mike has already highlighted how its current methodology was miles out before the last election and yet they have continued as before.
As others have said, ICM and YouGov are the definitive pollsters at present and when Populus are added to the mix we have a reasonable picture. However, the sample size for the populus polling out today is too small to be meaningful.
In the mean time there is nothing to get too upset about for the Conservatives in either of today’s polls.
119 Excellent Article
119 - She’s hardly an impartial observer though is she?
120. Yes - a comparison I made several weeks ago. Back then, extremist Catholics cast suspicion over the whole Catholic population by constant plotting against the Crown, often in concert with foreign powers such as France and Spain. Catholics became seen as a dangerous fifth column, with divided loyalties, and this led to oppressive government action and penal legislation that remained in force well after any real threat had disappeared. The muslim community risks going the same way.
24 - She?
121 Honestly, not carried away at all.
Cameron won’t lose win his winner image completely, because the costs of doing so are so high and that he isn’t that stupid. Look what happened to IDS, when he got the loser tag.
But if Cam did … somehow or he fell under a bus, then there surely there would be trouble for the Tories, because of the changes he has made to the party.
11. Internationalist approach is fine if you can get one, if the world can’t unite on such serious issues as North Korea and Iran, when will it?
Like many Conservatives I am probably feeling more apprehensive than usual about the next ICM/Yougov numbers, although generally dismissive of MORI only a fool completely ignores evidence and this poll is evidence of a kind.
Labour seem to have halted their poll slide; what troubles me the most is that they seem to have done so by playing the race card.
There is increasing evidence (at last) of a bit of a backlash against the whole Jack Straw thing so the plan might yet backfire; if it doesn’t and Labour decide that they are on to something with this line of attack against Muslims we are all in trouble.
At 129 I should of course have have said “they seem to have done so by playing the religeon card”
25 - The onus is on the government to be rational so that innocents are not tainted, the government are the ones who wield the power and should behave accordingly.
In your example it was the government who was at fault not the large majority of innocent Catholics.
Muslims also have minuscule power compared to the government and communities are far too fractured for any leadership to be effective within that community as you seem to desire. It’s like saying that whites are all responsible for the drunkenness on display each weekend, we can do nothing about it however much we might decry it.
I’m one of the YouGov research panel and have not received my political poll for 2 weeks now. I suspect a Nulab stitch up.
Remember how the electoral boundaries were jerrymandered to keep Nulab in power? A government that will sink that low…
ukPaul- Islamism is not a perceived enemy- 7/7, 9/11, Athens, Bali-not forgetting those countries that have contended with this extreme policical movement for years (Algeria, Sudan, Egypt). It is now embedded and spreading within western, mainstream countries.
It would be an act of gross negligence by the state to simply ignore this threat- simply bury one’s head in the hand and hope it will go away.
Entrenched anti social behaviour that blights the poorest communities- how do you deal with it? Let the free market and individuals decide- I don’t think so.
The state has a role to intervene to make most people’s lives better. It has a duty to regulate capitalism (to make it safer), to provide schools and healthcare. It has a role to promote fairness so people cannot discriminate- is this the red tape that blights people?
Poor capitalists all that legislation forcing them to provide maternity rights, safer working conditions, wage control, and employment rights. Eats right into their profits- bloody nanny state for you.
127 – I would think most parties would have a problem if their leader fell under a bus.
I do think that suggesting the Tories would then potentially face the abyss is totally over the top though. In the same way that it would be if I suggested that if GB doesn’t start looking more like a winner and doesn’t keep out of the way of oncoming traffic the Labour party would be facing a similar catastrophe.
128. A very reasonable point but people used to have the same apprehensions and concerns about democracy (and in some parts of the world still do). We need to work towards desirable goals even if it appears a long and hard road.
29 - Talking about wearing veils is not playing the race card, it is expressing a concern that many British people have, not discussing these issues is the greatest danger!
“what troubles me the most is that they seem to have done so by playing the race card”.
I’m sorry Marcus but from a Tory who supported Michael Howard at the last election I can only think you’re being ironic?
PM - I thought you were agreeing with me until your last line “The muslim community risks going the same way.”
Some parts of the Labour Party seem to be using Muslims as “the enemy”, stereotyping all Muslims as potential terrorists. The Muslim community should not be blamed for what unscrupoulous politicians do.
Personally, I think the issues about Islam which have been raised by Labour ministers, over the past few weeks, have been reasonable ones, though of course, I’m sceptical about their motives for doing so.
139 – I think their fairly reasonable too Sean. What pisses me off though is you can just imagine the response from the Labour party if the exact same comments had been made by a Tory. We’d never hear the end of them ranting on about nasty, racist Tories.
133 - “Islamism is not a perceived enemy”
I can guarantee that the majority of people do perceive Islamism as the enemy. :confused:
129 Marcus Wood- do you really think that Straw deliberately paid the race card in an attempt to halt Labour’s poor polling numbers?? Gosh the world must look a very strange place through your eyes- shadowy, paranoid and full of plotting and cosnpiracies.
RE 133 Tyson, You imply there was no threat from Guido Fawks on the 5th of November. I appreaciate that Nu Lab time started in 1994, but this country has really been around a lot longer than that.
On the Islamist issue, we are currently losing the war because we are fighting the wrong one. Firstly it is a matter of following the money and the Imams. The government has had all the power it needs to deport immams who are a threat to security since the 1971 immigration act. We also need to effectively fight the propaganda war for Muslims hearts and minds, and gving the immpression that its OK to pick on Muslims does nto cut it.
As for anti social behaviour the fact is that most ASBO’s given out seem to be preventing people from commiting criminal acts, so you have to wonder why they were not just nicked in the first place under the exisitng law.
The Police also spend too much time arresting people for looking after themselves and not enough on going after criminals.
133 - “Entrenched anti social behaviour that blights the poorest communities- how do you deal with it? Let the free market and individuals decide- I don’t think so.”
Empower communities, don’t try and dictate from the centre.
You seem to wish more power to the state, I wish to see it devolved to the people. I really can’t understand the centralising point of view that you have.
RE 137 Roger, i thought Labour now agreed that immigration is an issue which is not race specific.
Some interesting polls. Like many on here I am tempted to disregard the Opinion Leader Research Poll which looks to be based on a very dubious sample distorted for political ends (as the opinion column refering to ‘my party’ in the center pages suggests). As for the Mori Poll the figures should be ignored but the may be picking up a small trend back to labour as security/cultural issues start to move up the agenda.
Undoubtedely comments on the veil chimed with a lot of people including myself and DC took to long to respond to the ensuing debate and then responded inadequately in my view by attacking the debate itself rather than taking a view on it. He should have stated something along the lines of that ‘I would prefer it if Muslim women chose not to wear the veil but in a liberal society it is up to them to choose for themselves in these matters’.
There are however dangers attached to this approach. In particular the fact that labour is liable to more bad headlines concerning its approach on law and order as the recent news about prison places and the continued failure to deal with foreign prisoners show and because support from some of its big ideas in this area is falling as the public becomes less enthusiastic about ID cards for example.
In general though DC should not get too worried about these polls and should continue to force the party to change. Jumping on bandwagons in general will not push the party into power as past experience has shown. He should though remember that his strongest success came when he focused on environmental issues for a sustained period of time. It is time for him to repeat the trick on another issue perhaps the NHS. A scatter-gun approach will not have any lasting impact.
140 Oh yes, that’s certainly true, Max.
142 I think that the results from Barking & Dagenham, Batley & Spen, Stoke, Sandwell etc., in May sent shivers down Labour’s spine, and the comments have to be seen in that context.
I reiterate, I don’t see anything wrong with what Labour ministers have said, but, as politicians, it’s the threat of losing even more votes that has concentrated their minds.
There was also a poll out in The Sunday Mail on Scottish voting intentions yesterday . Based on rather a small sample but promising for SNP . Figures were 1st vote SNP 35% Lab 32% LibDem 16% Conservative 11% SSP 4% Others 2% 2nd vote SNP 28% LibDem 26% Lab 25% Con 11% SSP 5% Green 4% Others 1%
138. I am not apportioning blame, just saying that the risk exists that muslims as a whole will become perceived by wider society as an untrustworthy and even dangerous minority. This is of course exactly what the extremist elements want. Unfortunately for the moderate majority, I am not sure there is a great deal they can do to stop it happening.
Whazt is really perplexing is how government supporters seem to think that veils are the key to Islamism. What planet are you on? Your government is stoking up a non-issue and you’re lapping it up!
What is going on inside your heads? There are, as Benedict says above, much more important issues and tactics to employ in creating a more harmonious society.
Please come back to Planet Real before you succeed in making the matter worse (yet again).
(And while we’re at it how about a strategy to address the white underclass whose continuing decline is a barrier to our future wellbeing? ASBOS just don’t cut it, being short termist, so where’s the long term idea? Any votes in that one then?)
141-Islamism represents a real threat simple as that. It is not a perceived threat. That was the point I was trying to make.
The extent of the threat is arguable- statistically I am more likey to be bludgeoned to death by someone in my family than blown up by a suicide bomber.
But Islamism is on the up- the veil issue is an indication, and I simply do not agree with the Liberal position of live and let live.
And I do not believe Labour are playing politics- they are in government when this issue is taking hold, and they have a responsibility to take a lead.