Communicate Research puts Labour 6% behind
October 24th, 2006
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The Independent’s pollster has the Lib Dems on just 14%
Gloom for Labour and the Lib Dems and a boost for the Tories is the message from this morning’s poll in the Independent from Communicate Research - which has not had a published a national voting intention survey since last year’s General Election. The headline figures - CON 38%: LAB 32%: LD 14% - show a very high proportion of respondents going for other parties.
Just under 1,000 people were interviewed from October 20 - 22 - so the fieldwork finished on Sunday and is almost a week newer than the Mori survey that was reported yesterday.
I was a big critic of CR when it was last polling for the Independent of Sunday in the run-up to the run-up to the 2005 General Election. It does not employ past vote weighting - the process in which pollsters like ICM and Populus seek to ensure they have balanced samples by weighting their results in line with what respondents said they did last time taking into account a level of misremembering.
From the limited information on the firm’s website it does not appear to have used this approach in this latest poll. This is quite remarkable given the findings. For the main impact of past vote weighting is usually to reduce the level of Labour support because telephone surveys, for whatever reason, invariably find many more people who voted Labour last time than actually did.
The firm’s polls in the months leading up to May 5 2005 generally showed bigger Labour leads than ICM or YouGov. Its final survey before the election was completed eight days ahead of the ballot and really cannot be compared with those pollsters who were doing surveys in the final week. It came out with Labour at 39, the Tories on 31% and the Lib Dems with what proved to be an accurate 23%.
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Today’s numbers, if supported by ICM and others, support a pet theory of mine that Tory support is closely linked to the amount of media coverage they and their leader get whether good or bad.
Last week the Tories had their tax plan announcement which featured quite largely, although not always positively, just before the survey started. They got an extra day of coverage thanks to the Brownite pre-emptive onslaught. In the run-up to the Mori poll the news was dominated by Iraq and the Tories and David Cameron were hardly getting a mention anywhere.
Alas, we cannot compare the CR figures with the October ICM poll for the Guardian - the first part of which is featured today. The paper focuses on the Iraq questions and is holding over the voting intention data until, hopefully, tomorrow.
After today’s terrible 14% finding the Lib Dems must be hoping for something better from ICM which generally reports bigger shares for the party, probably because it lists the names of the main parties when it asks the voting intention question.
Mike Smithson
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Tends to fit with last weeks local by elections in England and Wales. On paper this weeks batch looks potentially good for the Cons.
However I recall this poll had the Lib Dems at 16% a week or so before the General of 2005, well below the other polls, then 5-6 days later was it not 23%? Quite volatile.
others on 16%!!!!!
If it’s not weighted, I just can’t give it any real consideration. Said the same about Mori yesterday.
3 - agreed.
Might it be that the Iraq questions remind people why they do not like the government, resulting in both low Labour figures and high “others” (since Cameron has given no reason for these disaffected punters to switch to the Conservatives)?
Hate to say I told you so, but …
David Cameron is right when he says that winning the election won’t be easy, but I’m feeling increasingly confident that we’ll do it - and with quite a lot to spare.
Like the London bus…. You wait forever and then three come at once! I wonder whether the newspapers pay their polling companies in proportion to how well respected they are? I was recently polled by MORI about something non-political and it took about twenty minutes.
In some ways I welcome bad polls for Labour. Anything that hastens Blair’s departure can’t be a bad thing. It’s becoming ever more likely that the Iraq war is going to define his premiership in the same way as Suez defined Eden’s.
5 - They are asked voting intention first I believe.
Was there any comment on this excellent article yesterday?
If this poll is accurate I would say the Blunkett diaries are more likely to be the immediate cause of Labour’s poor rating than any Tory tax plan. He made himself and Labour look pretty ridiculous.
No one has yet asked anyone whether they would prefer the Tories led by Brown to the Labour lot led by Cameron. Could they tell the difference? (the leaders, the parties or the electorate?)
10 Roger, I’m not sure how many people actually know anything about either. Conversation ‘down the pub’ appears to be about Jack Straw’s comments on the veil, and about John Reid’s pledge to help reduce immigration - which is seen as too little too late.
I now note that nothing this Government does is greeted with any enthusiasm - everyone I speak to (except the Labour group researcher…) seems to believe we are in the dying days of a Labour government.
I do agree with you that we Conservatives are not yet ready for a General Election as we have not yet completed our policy review. Once the policy commissions report, and we can start to flesh out built to last with a properly costed, fully researched program for Government, then you will see continued and sustained damage to Labour.
Please do elect GB your leader by the way. When out collecting signatures for the NHyeS petition, I was amazed how many people were signing with the comment ‘anything that stops Brown’…
Well not as bad as the Mori poll for us Conservaives, but I will still wait for an ICM or Yougov poll before I shout from the rooftops
Benedict, it was MORI…
…but I agree with you. And it will still be about the TREND not the individual poll…
14 - This poll is by CR, not mori
Hmm, a very low Lib Dem share and a very high Others share, and a poll that didn’t list the options. I wonder if the Liberals are on 4%?
RE 15, No the poll us Conservatives really did not like was the MORI poll putting Labour ahead. I like the CR poll which puts us 6 points ahead a lot more
Oh you meant “it was MORI” in a bad way! haha
I always mean “it was MORI” in a bad way. Because they don’t use past vote weighting. So they fluctuate wildly.
Mind you the same could be said of CR which is why I’m not getting over excited.
Trends people, trends!
I see that the ICM question was “When do you think that British troops should pull out of Iraq?” Not when the process should start, or when it should be completed. “Now” gets 45%; that can’t seriously mean “completed”. But if you take it as “start”, it’s weasel words and could last for ever. And “as long as considered necessary” begs the question “By whom?”.
For myself, the answer would be to start preparing now; stay as long as I, (not TB), consider necessary; but completion would almost certainly take into 2007. So how can one answer this poll?
On the face of it it’s quite good (but not great) for us but I’m not impressed with the track record of CR (I seem to remeber them being all over the place during the GE) and tend to view them in the same way I view Mori. The Lib Dem share of the vote also seems ridiculously low.
Can’t help feeling we’d all be better off waiting for ICM and YouGov before assesing how the parties are really doing.
Even then it will be the TREND Max!!!
Am I sounding like a broken record…?
I’m cautious about CR and Mori like most people here. FWIW I think that the emphaisis on what one can loosely call “Muslim” issues in the last couple of weeks damages all the major parties (since the implication that many people draw is that there’s a frightful problem with British Muslims, and none of the major parties actually agree that this is the case), probably Labour more than most since there’s a residual feeling that the Tories are more sceptical of formerly immigrant communities. Polls on Muslim issues show that most people are pretty level-headed about them, but it only takes 20% to feel that Muslims are evil enemies of Britain to create political havoc.
It’s a pity if the general conclusion is the case, since it would mean it’s hard to discuss genuine but relatively minor issues (such as Jack Straw’s original point about women in surgeries, expressed in an article for his local paper) without unleashing demons in the public mind.
There’s been speculation here that some politicians have been cultivating support by speaking out on veils etc., but it doesn’t really work like that. Beyond Straw’s original article, which nearly everyone agrees was a mildly-expressed concern that he was entitled to raise, every comment that I’ve seen was a response to a media question. What happens once the story gets going is that you get asked for a comment, and whatever you say (even ‘I have no opinion’) becomes a story, reported as if you’d spontaneously intervened in the debate. “X fuels veil controversy” is a typical headline, and “X refuses to back Y over veil fury” is another.
This poll is interesting for one reason. Despite the tories only having a 38/32 lead over labour they are only 1 seat short of a majority on the Baxter predictor. This is presumably due to the liberals low support at 14%.
This suggests that the bias in favour of labour declines quite rapidly as support for the liberal deomcrats falls. Will this lead to Labour going easy on the libdems at the next election I wonder?
22. The ‘trend’ since the last Comm Res poll is a 7% swing to the Tories. I would settle for that at this point, I think.
alex at 9. Yes it was discussed but only briefly. I agree that it was an excellent article and if it’s done nothing else at least it should have shown the powers that be at newsnight what a charlatan Luntz is.
Nick at 23. I agree that the way news is treated now is a joke. I heard Blair being asked during his question and answer session what he thought of veils and he said it was up to the wearer so they pushed him further and asked whether he agreed with Jack Straw and he said he supposes they could be seen not to help integration-talk about the blindingly obvious-and then was accused of Muslim bashing!
24. I think we can expect Labour to put up dozens of paper candidates who do no real campaigning (and whose ‘activists’ work with the Lib Dems) in areas like the SW at the next GE. This tendency was already visible last time in constituencies like W Dorset and New Forest E.
RE 23 Nick Palmer I do take your point about the press fueling the veil row in an incendary way (x shuns y over veil or what ever) I do think however some comments have been ill judged.
We have had yesterday and today 2 widely different polls in terms of Labour and Conservative. The real picture probably lies somewhere between both.
The real matter of interest are the Lib Dems. An 18% to 14% range does not look good. If they stay below 20% in the run in to next May, then the chances must increase that 2 parties will change Leaders next year.
Of the big 3 parties, the LDs have a much higher % of their MPs at risk of losing their job in a GE than the other 2. Roughly 50% are vulnerable. A sustained period of low polls and a bad May 07 will create pressure for “regime change”.
“When out collecting signatures for the NHyeS petition, I was amazed how many people were signing with the comment ‘anything that stops Brown’…”
I’m not sure I understand your message or why people should want to stop Brown? He has surely the best record of any government minister? My own feeling is that if he arrives, clears out the dead wood and forges a government in his own egalitarian image without the glory seeking garbage-Short, Blunkett, Prescott, Clarke, Reid etc-then he’s got a very good chance of romping to victory. He’ll certainly hammer home his economic triumphs which is always going to be his-and Labour’s -trump card.
[7] Yes three polls together, but they seem to be going to different destinations…
27. Fred, speaking from the SW I doubt this thesis very much.
I think stories of on the ground inter party co-operation are seriously overdone. In my experience local Labour activists -however few of them there may be - view Lib Dems with more distaste than most Conservative activists; and at the next election the Lib Dem threat is probably in aggregate greater for Labour than it is to Conservatives.
Even in Windsor, a safe Conservative seat in the 1997 election, Labour and the Lib Dems fought each other with as much vigour as we fought both of them.
On topic I am relived that todays poll numbers put us back on 38% but I agree with the others on here who don’t give this poll much weight.
And 14% for the Lib dems is clearly way off the mark.
29. Some of these vulnerable Lib Dems may also start to wonder if their career ambitions would be better served elsewhere.
32. Marcus - I live in one of the constituencies I mentioned and I have a very good friend who is a Tory activist in the other, so (respectfully) I disagree with you. Labour did no campaigning at all in W Dorset and Lib Dem and Labour activists worked hand in glove in New Forest E. In some parts of the country there is indeed the enmity between Lib Dem and Labour members you mention, but by no means everywhere.
It’s a disgrace that Communicate Research and BPIX should be attacked in this fashion.
As founder of my own polling organization ARSE - Anonymouse Random Selection of Electors and co chairman of the professional standards board CRAP - Confederation of Representatative Analytical Pollsters I can assure all PBers that the methodology of our members is beyond reproach.
Weighting is undertaken in the strictist fashion with Nick Soames on the scales every other week for the past recall of Conservative figures of all shapes and sizes. For Labour we determine the monthly IQ flunctuations of John Prescott divided by the number of press releases from Ken Livingstone on the effect on London of fox hunting in northern Borneo. The Lib Dem figure is made up ……… sorry, made up by counting the hallmarks on Mings current silver zimmer frame and multiplying that by the number of rent boys who haven’t had “knowledge” of Mark Oaten.
Sample size may fluctuate from as many as the average gate of Clachnacudan Rovers FC - 27, to as high the sales of seanT’s books in Andorra - 37.
I hope I have been able to reassure you all that the best interests of our members is your safeguard of a quality product !
Our next poll on whether Alastair Matlock uses hair dye and wears Versace combinations is out on 32nd October.
9 - well, Millenium Elephant will be pleased that it comes to the same conclusions about his “friend” Luntz as he did.
33 - if they were traditionally “ambitious” they would have done what the likes of Millipede did and decided which party was more likely to propel them towards a red box at the outset of their career.
RE 34 In Sussex mostly (but with some exceptions) Conservatives and Labour get on and neither get on with the Lib Dems. Or at least that is my understanding.
DC is amazing - he’s turned it round in a day !
As an aside…
The ICM poll out in tomorrow’s Gaurdian (hopefully), will be the 100th since the last general election.. not enough IMO!
Re Fred “Lib Dem and Labour activists worked hand in glove in New Forest E.”
Yes they did (and still lost). The overall trend in the south is that in many areas Labour has dissappeared, replaced by the Lib Dems. Quite how that benefits Labour is a real puzzle because 20 years ago Labour used to be strong in urban areas but have been squeezed out altogether in many towns by the Lib Dems. Their “enemy” is really the Lib Dems. That may change when Blair goes because many of these activists are left wing.
39 - not overnight, more like ten months.
42 - but that was yesterday - do keep up
41. Indeed - but in the words of one local Labour member I know ‘I’m really happy to be helping the Lib Dems - they are more left than we are’. I’m not sure that will necessarily change that much unless McDonnell wins (!).
43 - but the fieldwork was after today’s published poll
It’s actually only to -1% net rating actually. And they dont mention that Ming fell by the same amount 2 months quicker!!
Re 45 Tabman, the CR feildwork, (The one taht is good for the Conservatives) was after the MORI polls feild work which showed a Labour lead.
47 - [bluff]
Its pretty clear what the trend is, though. Still, who am I to comment?
Hmm, very unsatisfactory poll for the Liberal Democrats - our rating appears on the verge of free fall. Sadly, after the drift of the Kennedy era, Sir Menzies’ leadership appears not to have imbued the party with the focus and dynamism many of us hoped for and predicted. There is no need to panic: Cameron’s vacuity is becoming increasingly apparent to the commentariat, and this should filter through to the voting public in time. However, if this moribund trend continues for the Lib Dems and matters have not improved markedly in year, I think Ming and the high command should engage in some serious soul searching. I also believe, in the manner of Howard with Cameron, Ming should consider grooming someone young and energetic as his successor, though as yet no suitable candidate springs readily to mind.
RE 48, I tell you what Tabbers… I’ll let you off
I do not see how changing their leader will make much difference to the fortunes of the Liberal Democrats for their fortunes have always been tied up with those of the two main parties. Chatshow Charlie may have been more popular than Grandpa Ming but I doubt he contributed much to the overall success achieved by the Lib Dems post 1997.
Whilst the Conservatives were deeply unpopular before 1997 the Liberals provided a temporary home for those who wanted a change of government but couldn’t bring themselves to vote Labour. At the last two elections they provided a home for voters who found both parties unattractive. In the present circumstances though it is very hard to see what role the Lib Dems will provide in British politics. They have no firm ideological basis to their support so their continued success depends upon carving out a niche which neither of the other two parties are capable of filling - something they are now struggling to do. Unless there are significant changes in either or both of the two main parties there will be little the Liberals can do to prevent a net loss of seats at the next general election.
Re 49 Orange Thinker “matters have not improved markedly in year, I think Ming and the high command should engage in some serious soul searching. ”
The key issue for Lib Dems getting elected as MPs is I believe the strength of their councillor base in the MPs area. Losing a lot of councillors (-200) next May could fatally undermine many MPs chances in the next GE.
30 roger, please keep thinking that. No really.
Another meaningless poll. Whilst these all get us all very charged up, there is only one Party leader who will definitely be leading his party at the next General Election - David Cameron. So the other two main parties figures are not really a fair reflection of the How would you vote? question, because we don’t know how people will really vote with Brown and Clegg leading the other parties (though I suspect it will be more for the Conservatives…)
35. Jack W - borderline genius.
49. Don’t take this poll too seriously. Or remotely seriously. I expect the LDs to be steady around the 20% mark for the next 12 months (in ICM and YouGov at least).
The problem with poll methods is that they do not allow for probable turnout. With almost 50% of those people who can even be bothered to answer their questions saying they wont vote the pollsters are becoming increasingly desperate. They are resorting to weighting the few responses they have got left, this way and that, to produce their result.
The different weighting methods and the by now tiny samples are producing volatile results, possibly as a result of the sample size, possibly because the voter really dont mind one way or the other. The declared results are really are not much use - even to us.
On the other hand if anyone can produce a poll showing the Lib Dems storming ahead then please ignore all the above.
Another day another poll, 3 years to go does it really matter?
Note that the Independent, (probably the most anti Nulabour daily paper) does follow the poll, with a piece questioning the accuracy of polls. Comes to the conclusion they may not be perfect, but they’re all we have to rely on: think we worked that out ourselves. Personally think the two main parties are probably neck and neck, with the Libdem vote a little fragile at the moment.
54 Julian. Only “borderline” ??
35.”sorry, made up by counting the hallmarks on Mings current silver zimmer frame and multiplying that by the number of rent boys who haven’t had “knowledge” of Mark Oaten.”
So, Jack, the Thailand visit made their number falls…
49 - I disagree, OT. Just look at who Ming has promoted into the top jobs in his shadow cabinet. There are some clear contenders there.
A comment on the poll from Andrew Hawkins - boss of Communicate Research
I asked Andrew if he could make some comments about today’s poll. This is his response:-
Dear Mike
Thanks for your email and yes - we were pleased to be able to return with a voting intention poll today.
We have always used a turnout filter, and in our experience it remains mostappropriate to use one which filters in those who answer 5-10 on a 10-point scale, since there is always a cluster who say ‘5′ while most say ‘10′.Prior to the ‘05 election we weighted according to likelihood to vote, which often had the effect of tempering big Labour leads, but having trialled a few different methods we’ve decided for the time being to use just the straight likelihood filter plus squeeze, instead of the likelihood weights - which actually reduces Conservative leads.
BTW we do prompt by party name which was why we too were surprised by the LDs’ low rating today.
I suppose our poll is against the trend when compared to yesterday’s, but then yesterday’s was only the second poll since April to show a Labour lead,and both polls were I think conducted face to face (which we would no longer use for voting intention). Of course, other polls this month and last showed the Tories with the same or higher margin against Labour so we’re fairly well in line with others….if that’s considered a virtue!
Hope this helps.
Regards
Andrew
42. Interesting article on Cameron. I must say he has got a bad habit of stating the blindingly obvious “Don’t write off our old people-they still have a contribution to make”! I wonder whether voters aren’t tiring of these aphorisms and that’s why his approval ratings are going down fast?
32 & 34 - My experience in North Norfolk has been of absolute rabid hatred from Labour towards the Lib Dems. I remember the backslapping between the Tories and labour after the 1997 election when the Tories sneaked home, and the booing at the count from Labour when Norman Lamb won North Norfolk for the Lib Dems in 2001.
What people sometime see as co-operation is a perceived lack of effort from Labour or Lib Dems in some areas. I think in mnay cases it is no lack of effort, just a collapse inthe number of activists prepared to do anything.
As for the CR research poll, I don’t beleive it. There is plenty of research to show that Lib Dem voters firm up towards election time and often see themselves as non-political. That is why the previous voting intention is important in properly judging peoples voting habits.
Re 60, Mike, so they think their weighting method reduces the Conservative share?
Well, I will be really interested to see ICM and YouGov now. Especialy as they promtp by party name as well.
62. Spot on. Labour have a real problem with this at the moment, I think it is much worse for them than it was for us Conservatives in the lead up to 1997.
There was nothing in Windsor when I was there and in Torbay Labour are a real one man and his dog outfit, mind you the one man works his nuts off and had a very good result last time.
RE 61 Roger you really are clutching at straws. There are lots of people who do not value older people. There is not anyone over 40 in the Nymber 10 policy unit for example (which is why it comes out with such tosh). Many investment banks also have low numbers of older people.
It needed saying and it will need saying again.
What conclusions, if any, to draw from the 16% “Others” figure?
RE 64, Marcus, let us know who the man is, we can scupper him by reporting him to the RSPCA
58 Andrea. As usual Andrea you are the fountain of all Oaten related knowledge !! showering us with ….
67 Benedict. Disgusting !! woof woof
Now you see, this is why I’m not putting too much weight on these current polls. I think everything is still a bit up in the air at the moment. People don’t know whether Blair is going or staying, is Gordon going to be the next PM or not, does Cameron have any policies or not, and why is the guy from the Worthers’ Original advert the Lib Dem leader?
I’m not even sure if consistent polling is going to make me believe the public is feeling one way or the other - think we’ll still have wait until after the new PM’s out and/or the local elections. Though I’m sure some Conservatives will feel a little happier after this poll.
Whoops, I meant to say “I’m not even sure if consistent polling is going to suggest any long-term trends”.
70 Raj on the mysteries of politics…….” and why is the guy from the Worthers’ Original advert the Lib Dem leader?”
I Just spluttered the coffee on the screen laughing.
70, 72
:lol:
I’m dubious about a poll giving 14% to the Lib Dems or 16% to Others - but, in very exagerated form, it does highlight the way in which anti-poltiics voters no longer view the Lib Dems as the receptacle for their protest votes.
Raj - on the contary everyone knows that Gordon is going to be the next PM, that Cameron has no intention of ever having any policies, and that everyone likes toffees.
But why would Tories feel happy (even the odd ones we get here). A shot to pieces government, a collapsing economy, NHS cuts, Iraq/Afganistan a mess (understated) and still the Tories cant get over 40%
61&65 But as I posted yesterday DC impressively banged on about the value of older people, the baby boomers, the good work a couple of large organisations were doing recruiting older people who were shown to be reliable , productive etc, etc. He sounded very passionate, etc, etc. The when he was asked to make one simple commitment to end compulsory retirement in the Civil Service at 60 he spluttered and refused to commit to it.
For crying out loud why not? What is the point of going off on this subject if you can’t even make a commitment like this. What are you going to do about it except make noise.
As I said yesterday politics is becoming depressing. Please commit to something, anything. I don’t care if it is something I agree with or disagree with, but please let me form an opinion on who should be the next PM and governing party.
We are coming to the point on deciding our PM on whether he/she is a nice sort of chap or not.
76 - but he does approve of local councils levying extra council taxes on younger people to subsidise council tax for the elderly.
I find it hard to conceive of a more unfair measure.
As this poll shows a blue lead, I shall trumpet it is as the only pol that matters and consign yesterday’s MORI output as the result of poor methodology.
Actually, there’s a couple of things on here I do believe:
1) 16% for others is what I’ve suspected for some time. Fewer and fewer people actually like any of the big parties; they garner votes to keep one of the other lots out. In FPTP, voting others is usually a waste, so few people do it. But look at the number of votes the rag, tag and bobtail parties have been getting over the last twenty years or so - I suspect the growth has been exponential. This is to be expected - the more people vote for them, the more point there is in voting for them. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see others at 16% next GE, especially if people can be convinced that there’s little political difference between the big three anyway. (In 1992, for example, a growing ‘others’ vote was squeezed as the choice came down to two big parties still quite ideologically divided).
2) I think this poll (and it’s methodological deficiencies) also shows that we’re getting shy Labour voters in the same way we used to get shy Tories - hence Labour’s surprisingly low vote where it used to be surprisingly high. Although it’s quite possible I could have completely misread the methodological nuances here.
74. This is IMHO a consequence of the ousting of Kennedy. He was a plausible frontman for an anti-politics protest party. Campbell is too much of an establishment figure for that. The beneficiaries of this may well be the Greens and other small groupings. As I argued at the time of the Lib Dem leadership election, the attempt to transform the Lib Dems from a protest party into something more ideologically coherent could send the party backwards rather than forwards.
I’ve always been suspicious of the ‘likely to vote’ bias. Some people may say they are ‘likely to vote’ who won’t, some people will say ‘unlikely to vote’ and they will, who really knows how ’some people’ will react on the day?
77 Sean. Window tax is hardly fair either … I’ve had to replace the glass with wooden shutters for my tenants. They’re clearly thrilled with the move as they’ve asked me to attend a BBQ near the cliffs this afternoon. There’s obviously games too as they’re all bringing ropes, chains, claymores, axes and a block.
Sadly I’m unable to attend ….. I’m sending Mrs Jack W instead. Such kind folk !
Let us be absolutely frank - this is a terrible poll for Labour - the more so because it was carried out in a way that should help the our share. If Communicate can produce these figures like this heaven knows what ICM going to come up with tomorrow. We are in a terrible state of limbo not quite knowing how we are going to be led. Blair should go as soon as possible then at least we can have some clarity.
20. I agree - even as someone who now loathes the Iraq war - that the polling on this point is meaningless. Asking people ‘do you want the troops to come home soon’ is like asking them ‘do you want to have sex with someone really gorgeous’ - it’s clearly a desirable thing, that everyone will affirm, but it doesn’t mean they think it’s practical or feasible, it doesn’t even prove they think it’s the right thing to do.
The Tory poll confirms a soft-ish Tory lead. This we knew.
77 - Gah! This post-war generation will bleed us dry, they really will.
Anyway, completely O/T, a jolly little story for those not involved here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2418044,00.html
- my favourite bits of which are the final three paragraphs - the ‘hobbies’ he put on the CV and the inadequacy of his cleaner.
Restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian immigration confirmed - Labour’s panic rush to head off the BNP continues.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6076410.stm
84 - Lovely story - but are the Times and Sun being written by the same jounalists now?
Thats an awfully flattering picture of Ming in the new banner! How old is it?
86. Icarus…the Sun would have used the “Shamed Ex Magistrate” headline
Is this a good day to bring out other news? So we have the new “tough” line on immigrants and Charles Powell interview rumours……
oh and sky news main feature is Prince Charles tax issues….zzzzzzzz
The anti-Cameron propaganda in the Times and FT is coordinated tosh from those committed to electing a notorious basketcase to lead the Labour Party, who has wrecked the British economy and now wishes to wreck everything else that’s left.
The total of the three ‘major’ Parties (Lib Dem is approaching minor party status) is 84%. That was about 88% 3 months ago in most polls. Does that show a continuing surge in support for an unmentionable Bunch of Non People - unknown within media circles?
I wonder if any one has any more news on the Powell questioning issue. Guido still only has a rumour.
78-Is there a breakdown for others at 16%? Say, Nats 5%, Greens 5%, BNP 4%, UKIP 2%. Or BNP at 5%, Greens at 2%…
Since these votes are realistically wasted votes on so far as MPs are eleected (save Nats, and very very possibly a shock result elesewhere), should we maybe not look at the 3 party share since this is where 620+ MPs will come from? This would then give 45%/38%/17%. What would electoral calculators throw up then.
I accept that for example a UKIP vote may depress the Conservative vote, but not all their support would have been Conservative, plus there is a similar movement with Greens (Lab/LD), BNP (Lab/Con?). So would all these balance themselves out?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=412221&in_page_id=1770
“Downing Street put up a wall of silence today in the face of strong rumours that the Prime Minister’s right hand man has been quizzed by police.”
They did not deny it.
I just had a wonderful daydream in which ‘St.’ Anthony Blair and ‘Sir’ Ian Blair were obliged to resign on the same day. Now wouldn’t that be uplifting?
Only 16% for others? In Bedford the figure would be well over 50% if our local polling is to be believed (I won’t trouble you with the exact figures)
Barry Monk
Save Bedford Hospital party
94. It’s not a fanTAStic day to be Labour, is it? The youth justice system is ‘in crisis’, the government has done a U-turn on immigration, Margaret Beckett has admitted the Iraq war ‘might be a foreign policy disaster’ and now the PM’s factotum Charles Powell is in a half-nelson down at Paddington Green.
I confidently expect to hear that Gordon Brown is an active transvestite in the next few hours.
Oh dear things not going to plan for Grandad,can the Lib Dems go any lower,I guess 14% confirms their minor party status.
Why is it that Michael Howard openly states that he was interviewed by the police but 10 Downing street will not answer the question on Powell?
O/T
There seems to be some canvassing in play for Hilary Benn among the PLP…
http://thedaily.wordpress.com/2006/10/23/benn-leadership-challenge/
Presumably ‘cos he can only be a witness to the giving of honours in exchange for loans. It was No 10 that would have to give them.
A little OT but Mike have you seen your man’s web site. Central casting have surpassed themselves!
http://www.joncruddas.org.uk/index.php
You don’t think someone in the Cruddas camp but some money on with W Hill to reduce the odds to get a story going do you? They wouldn’t would they?
101. Rather reminiscent of the Redwood leadership launch, with the strange gang of misfits in the background.
101. uhn, sorry, but what’s your point?
The website is pretty good
On the LDs I think two things are at play - both linked.
People tend to hold the LDs in a higher regard than the Tories or Lab however in recent times two things have happened on a national scale to damage that image and their poll ratings.
The assasination of Charles and the dodgy donation.
Bad things tend to stay in the memory longer than good things (like the LD tax policy) so I’m not surprised at the lower showing. I hope like most LD activists - come election time people will start to listen to the good things we are saying and the poll rate will go up.
Ming is only to blame as he is currently leader - the same would of been said if Hughes or Huhne else won the contest.
Lib Dems “working with Labour”. Next door in W Dorset, the high profile issue at the 2005 (and 2001,IIRC) election was the Billy Bragg vote swap deal, which allowed Jim Knight to win and retain for Labour next door in S Dorset. But AFAIK, there were no working arrangements - hardly a matter for publicity anyway! But equally, there is not huge enmity between Labour and LD activists. The big personal enmity around here is between Tories and UKIP activists (of whom there are quite a number).
Here, where Labour have not had Cllrs for quite a few years, and with very little on the ground party activity, the Lib Dems have never worked with Labour (again AFAIK) to try to keep the Tories out. But we have ex- Labour people working with us - 3 eras really - those who were fedup with Blair, Iraq etc etc, those who joined via the SDP and the Alliance, AND those who joined the former Liberals. I know of none who have gone the other way, although a few long term supporters voted Labour because they disagreed with the Iraq line used by Kennedy.
In 2001, Labour put up a little fight, and their policy lines were not dissimilar to ours as Lib Dems, but in 2005, they had an obvious paper candidate who took a very NuLab line. Clearly there wasn’t a major effect of the latter move, because their vote, although falling somewhat, did not either collapse, or strengthen significantly!
In most rural seats in the South and SW, the fight for many years has been LD vs Tory, and it is mainly in and on the edges of cities where LD vs Labour becomes an issue, where it seems like Labour want to claim ‘droit de seigneur’ - “these are ‘our’ people” (don’t dare compete for their votes!)
104. The interesting thing is that the public’s increasingly negative view of the Iraq situation is not leading to any poll bonus for the Lib Dems. I wonder if this is because Iraq is increasingly seen not as a moral issue, but instead just another symptom of a general loss of competence by the Labour government. If so then the issue becomes a positive for the Tories by default.
Then why arent the Tories in at least the Mid 40’s?
101/03. Maybe he could have gone for a less “strong” tone of red though
He must have paid Jack a lot to dress up in a red turban and pretend to deliver newspapers. The things Jack will do for money and fame!
24. Paul “Will this lead to Labour going easy on the libdems at the next election I wonder?”
Yes.
That 16% for “others” is interesting. We will have to wait for ICM though to see if their others trend is on the up too.
109. Jack is the one with the black hat and gloves under the MB thing!
105. Labour’s vote in W Dorset in 2005 fell almost 6% to just 7.7%, so their lack of effort had a very real impact on their performance I would say. The amusing thing was, that despite the efforts of dear Billy and others, the Lib Dems picked up almost no additional support. The collapsed Labour vote instead migrated to the Tories, UKIP, and the Greens. In New Forest E where Labour tried the same trick the result was quite similar.
92 - interesting question. I would suspect that the Lib Dems would be disproportionately hit by the rise of the others, since a chunk of their support comes from people voting for them as they’re neither Lab nor Tory. I suspect the rise of local independents in eg Kidderminster, Wigan, Mansfield, Bedford has hurt them particularly.
But these are just suspicions - any stats would be welcome.
Suspect Nats don’t really come into this - they’re a different sort of ‘other’. Much more established as part of the political scene (though you could argue that Plaid in S. Wales have an element of the newcomer about them) - and so just as subject to the ‘institutional distrust’ that currently ails the big parties.
60. “BTW we do prompt by party name which was why we too were surprised by the LDs’ low rating today.”
In that case the 16% “others” finding becomes truly impressive. Any chance of a breakdown?
Andrew, do CR prompt for the Scottish National Party in Scotland, and Plaid in Wales (as ICM have confirmed they do).
110. I disagree, I think Labour will really go for the LDs at the next election; they cannot afford lose ground on two fronts.
I was interested to see at the Labour Conference that there were fringes on how to campaign against the LDs and the BNP, but none on how to fight off the Tories and Respect.
104 - Assasination of a confirmed Alcholic? I think thats fine, but the replacment is the worry. If we had someone from the younfer MPs in now I am sure these poll ratings would be up there same as last year.
The mistake was not getting rid of Kennedy but replacing him with Ming.
MB - Mitchells and Butler - he just wants a drink!
117 Icarus
(btw, did I sound too confrontational with you earlier with the “what’s your point?” comment? Sorry!)
118 - You weren’t. And even if you were, he deserves it
Andrea - you have earned the right to say what ever you like on this board - no one provides more relevant information than you. No offence taken!
Actually slightly seriously his web site sounds a bit “the party’s in a right mess and its all the fault of the present cabinet (No 2 - G Brown esq.)” I cannot see the Labour machine giving him much support.
I am surprised that there has not been that much discussion on today’s big loser - Ming Campbell. If one of the other polls is getting anywhere near that then he would be in trouble. There has been hardly any comment from our Lib Dem friends about Campbell’s dreadful ratings and he seems to offer nothing to the Lib Dems except provide a regular reminder of how totally irrelevant they are. IMHO the next election will see a polarisation with Labour being able to make real headway as the only party that can stop the Tories.
116 The leadership election was at the wrong time for the younger MPs.
Concidering the choices Ming was the best in my view - remember he had the majority of MPs, MEPs, Lords and the membership supported him althogh I think activists prefered Huhne - but they are a minority of the membership as with all parties.
In my view the biggest threat to the LDs in 2007 is the Greens who are assuming the “non of the above” role the LD occupied until recent events.
Re 121, The History Boy, You make the interesting assumption that it is the Conservatives people will want stopped. I see it the other way around.
120. Icarus…nah, I haven’t that right! However I didn’t want to offend you…I was just wondering what you didn’t like in the website
If you think Cruddas has the “the party’s in a right mess and its all the fault of the present cabinet” approach, you haven’t seen McDonnell’s website!
http://www.john4leader.org.uk/
123. Benedict White “… the interesting assumption that it is the Conservatives people will want stopped. I see it the other way around.”
I believe that to be true, although I lack any evidence. (Anyone got any?)
Especially in Scotland, where the Tories really are down to their absolute core vote (it cannot slip to much below 15%, surely… ?!?) it increasingly looks like whoever is placed best to beat Labour is likely to benefit from a tactical vote.
But Andrea McDonnel is going for leader. The new deputy will have to be able to work with the Leader (AKA Gordon) and the rest of the cabinet.
123 “You make the interesting assumption that it is the Conservatives people will want stopped. I see it the other way around”
So this means I assume…
The Conservatives want the people stopped!
I always knew it, but it’s nice to have it confirmed
#75 I don’t like toffees.
RE 125, Also south of the border I don’t think the Conservatives are hated any where near as much as some Labour activists think.
Benedict- I do not think people hate the Tories, only labour activists, and old lefties like myself. Most people are just apathetic and not bothered, but most importantly I do not think there is a broad groundswell of public longing to bring the Tories back otherwise we would be seeing 20-30%+ opinion poll leads. Realistically I cannot see how the Tories can reclaim the ground that they once held in the cities, Scotland, north and wales.
Also, I only really hate Tories (superficially) when I am posting on this site. Many of my friends are Tories, and many people I genuinely respect and like in other settings are Tories.
128 commentator. “I don’t like toffees.”
What sort of political deviant are we getting on the site !! …. we’ll be invaded by UKippers next !!
112 Fred
Whereas in E Devon, the Tory vote also moved down, and we in the LDs, UKIP, and a new independent, almost equally benefited.
RE 130, Tyson the country is not overwhelmingly in a mood for change YET. Neither was there at the same time between 1992 and 1997.
We will see how it looks next year!
Yes weird on here today Jack - one chap even thought the people didnt hate Tories.
121
Its a combination of Ming’s poor leadership skills,opposition to ID cards & Green policies now being adopted by the Tories & the rise of minor parties such as Respect and BNP that offer a selection of homes for protest voters and this has resulted in the Lib Dems losing their monopoly as a home for protest votes.
The Lib Dems are basically left with their Iraq policy as their differentiating point & are looking increasingly irrelevant.
134 Icarus. Well quite ! ….. there are other odd bods on here who consider the Lib Dems are approaching Mrs Thatchers dead parrot stage ! ……. who’s a pretty boy john !!
132. Yes - but with the Tory vote down a massive 0.5%, the Lib Dem vote up an enormous 0.4% and the Lab share collapsing by a vast 1.3%, I think it’s fair to say that the vote swapping in E Devon was perhaps not that dramatic.
Benedict- just reading the thread last night and revisiting the communist/facism debate- you asked if facism can be neatly summed up. Yes it can- facism merely emphasises the fact that laws can be constructed around those who hold power; “might” is “right”- people who hold power can basically do what they want; morality is relative.
seanT could not have been more wrong in his revulsion of communism and its equivocation to facism. I spent an idyllic 9 months on a communist kibbutz in north Israel. There was no private property, no crime, shared ownership, even the children were brought up in collectives. People worked in the areas they were most skilled for, and everyone took turns in doing the horrible jobs. Most families had lived there for generations.
Marx is also one of the greatest economic thinkers. His theory of value is still one of the most important in economics.
Where communism went pear shaped is in Marx’s principle that the end justified the means which in effect led to totalitarianism.
Marx was (IMO) also way, way ahead of his time. He was writing and thinking for the digital age when capitalism was still in its raw infancy. Mature capitalism and communism may well merge in the future through consenus, technolgy and human endeavour, thinking and progress.
A bit of fun for those of us who take polls too seriously
http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/20/poll.08/index.html
133- why should there be a groundswell of support for the Tories?? Why should it emerge ?? After all the economy is doing OK, most people are getting richer, crime is dropping, we have increased investment in public services. This is overall a pretty competent govt, unless you live in Daily Mail land in which case everything is going to the dogs.
139
Maybe Gordon should use James in the future…..would Blair get a boost if he’ll start to use Lynton as his main name?
131 – Jack I would have thought toffees were off your menu – can’t be easy eating for a man of your age.
Personally I enjoy a nice treacle toffee – preferably deep fried.
140: The country sounds like it will soon be on a par with your Israeli kibbutz.
141 - I’m not sure if ‘Papa’s got a brand new red box’ really has the same ring to it Andrea.
GB may feel he needs a makeover but is Britain really ready for the Godfather of Soul to start running the country?
140. “This is overall a pretty competent govt,” Tyson, have you been watching the news at all lately? Ask a family being hounded by the tax credit people what it feels like to be worrying about a debt, which is not their fault but has caused them great distress.
#110 No need to wait to have a look for a trend. In the months following the 2001 election others were at 4-8% now they are at 7-10%.
There isn’t a noticeable trend between the year prior to the last election and after, though.
One more poll won’t make a new trend…
I would like to see the breakdown of CR’s 16% others. I’d like to think that Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” has led to a surge in support for the Greens… but I fear the BNP take a large chunk of it on the back of recent Muslim-baiting.
This is overall a pretty competent govt”
It’s the way you tell ‘em.
138-Might makes right is wrong, but Marx is a great thinker despite the ends justify the means. I think ultimately it boils down to some totalitarianisms are more acceptable than others.
You could argue apartheid makes sense in principle because of the concept of separate development for races. Or American segregation, of separate but equal. Or even Nazi employment/transport practices…
Unacceptable? There we are exactly.
RE 140, Tyson, you could have said similar things in 1997 as well. Public services were not that bad.
However, people do not feel richer. Very important that. When they keep hearing of cuts in the NHS they immeadiatley do not think they are getting better.
Peter2- might makes right is wrong- quite right
But you know we still practice that political philosphy in some areas- animal experimentation for one. Those with the power do, those without the power are done to. The whole process is legitimised by the state. A perfect example of facist principles alive and well in our own midst.
Facism and state sponsered communism ultimately joined together in the death cult totalitarian regimes of the 20th century because of how the state legitimised its actions through a process of moral relativism.
Yes, Fred at 137
The word on the ground here was “glacial swing”! But I think the general situation regarding LDs and Labour working together, but not especially being inimical to one another holds good over many similar seats across S and SW England!