Is this the ticket that secures the unions for Gordon?
October 24th, 2006
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Is a deal being struck so Brown’s backing Cruddas?
In all the discussion on Labour’s leadership elections far too little attention has been paid to what’s driving the third element in the party’s electoral structure - the trade unions. For after years of being half-ignored by Downing Street the union bosses appear determined to put their thumb-prints on the Labour succession if only, at the very least, to assert their key role in the Labour movement.
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Given that the outcome of the ballot of union members will represent precisely one third of the electoral college that will decide the two top posts then the news that seven leading union general secretaries have come out for Jon Cruddas has to be taken very seriously.
For although it’s the individual members who vote their leaders will have a huge influence particularly with the election of the Deputy. I would not be surprised if Cruddas, who was at 125/1 at the start of the month, picks up more than two-thirds of the union votes. With that as a basis he would not have to secure much more support in the membership or MP sections of the ballots to be elected.
There’s another element - the trade unions need to be seen to having an influence on the leadership election. Brown, although not universally popular with the union hierarchies is seen as a foregone conclusion for leader so the focus has become the deputy.
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I do not know whether this has happened or will happen but will the price of union support for the Chancellor be his backing of their man for deputy?
I’m always wary when people talk about the predictive nature of betting markets. But something has been driving the deputy leadership market where Cruddas has tightened from 125/1 to 8/1 in a month. Is there knowledge about that some sort of arrangement has been reached with Gordon and the unions?
The final element that makes me think Cruddas is a great bet is his USP. He is not pressing to be deputy prime minister or to hold some other high office in the Brown government. Rather he sees the role of the deputy as being the voice of the Labour movement in the higher echelons of power.
After all the movement has gone through with Tony Blair the Cruddas proposal strikes a real chord with a lot of people. Ladbrokes have him at 8/1. Take it.
Mike Smithson
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You will be accused of talking up your book Mike writing this. But I will be voting for Cruddas and I know many others in the party who will do the same.
In this picture Crud the scud looks like the spit of George Osbourne 20 years hence.
I’d heard this from a well placed Labour source a few weeks ago. Cruddas is the Brownite candidate and his canditure makes it easier for Brown to run ‘without running’ as it were.
I agree he’s currently good value, but he may not win. Sentiment may dictate a female deputy to Brown.
1- Absolutely not. As usual Mike has seen a great outsider before most of us mere amateurs. He is merely pointing this out to us, and I am sure if he wins we will also be told.
As to your tip on Barack yesterday- his 2004 convention address is one of the most remarkable I have seen. He also trounced his GOP opponent to win his seat. Youth is his weakness, not colour.
3.”his canditure makes it easier for Brown to run ‘without running’ as it were”
I’m slow…what does it mean?
I remain sceptical, and not just because I support another candidate. I don’t think that Gordon will intervene for anyone, tacitly or otherwise, any more than Tony will. He was good value at 50-1, but 8-1? I doubt it. He’ll do OK, getting the anmti-establishment vote as the only non-Cabinet candidate, but he won’t win. In particular he won’t win in the PLP, the only one of the three colleges that I’m fairly sure about.
On the Barack theme - while I also doubt if he’ll be President next time, he seems to have a good shot at doing well enough to be someone’s VP choice.
I would be very suprised if Cruddas won. There is a ceiling on his support amongst MPs and his media performances will not be that strong. He is a decent but slightly eccentric bloke who, having spent a large part of his life boozing with union leaders, likes talking in riddles. What his candidacy will do is encourage the more moderate elements to coalesce around one candidate, for fear that he will win. Who that will be I have no idea but Brown will not back him.
Tom Watson has been blogging very positively about cruddas recently. Now is this the same Tom Watson who never knowingly acts without Gordon’s Ok? hmmm hmmm the plot thickens
6.”In particular he won’t win in the PLP, the only one of the three colleges that I’m fairly sure about.”
I think it’s very likely that no-one will get more than 50% in PLP in the first preferences.
I don’t try to guess MPs second preferences…it’s hard enough to guess the first preference.
Thats blown it Mike - Nick our own tame Big Beast says no (well 50-1 chance!).
I am a lurking reader of this site. i use it for betting advice and find it very useful (thanks mike!). I have never commented though i do read the comments from time to time.
i just want to say that i read last night’s thread about the argument between nick Palmer and Sean and I thought it was poor, pointless, and embarassing. On all fronts.
I am on the left and do not agree with sean t on almost anything, but he is funny and seems honest, and writes good sense on iraq. he is a twit but all tories are twits in my eyes!
however commentator comes over as a sanctimonious berk. i do not understand why he got so angry about the communist argument.
It may not be shocking to you sophisticated people, but to an ordinary punter it is quite shocking to find that a labour mp was a communist. I dont understand why it was wrong for sean to point that out, he is entitled to his opinion just like anyone.
But i do not have anything against nick palmer who seems to talk sense on here, sometimes, even if he is a bit boring.
Sorry for confused comment. But i just wanted to say that. i will go back to betting now!!
11- welcome to this site which has the habit of making one confused. seanT is the most lryical writer on pbCOM- head and shoulders above any other. When I see a seanT post I almost always read it, many others I simply skip over. I couldn’t quite understand the fuss yesterday- and I still pretty much count myself as a communist (albeit an extremely hypocritical one).
Agree with Nick Palmer that Cruddas won’t win in the PLP. In fact I don’t even think he’ll come second in the PLP. Which means that, even assuming the unions do back him (and it’s up to the members, not the Gen Secs), he will have to do remarkably well among the party membership to win. As the least well-known of the candidates, I just can’t see this happening.
5 - Andrea - if Brown has his candidate running for deputy he can gauge his support at the same time as Cruddas canvasses the various parts of the party for himself. Brown is also able to use Cruddas to put out messages without it formally reflecting on him (Brown).
This is particularly useful if Brown wants to badmouth an opponent for leader (for example).
14. Thanks Dan. I understand now.
13. How many candidates do you expect to run?
Cruddas cut to 5/1 @ Ladbrokes. Like Dan @ 4, I suspect there may be a female deputy.
11 & 12 above. Totally agreed. I find Sean’s postings extremely amusing and I thoroughly enjoy witnessing the various spats he gets into with other contributors to this site. He strikes me as a very clever man and I’m often surprised that his wit appears to wash over some his opponents. I suspect that many of his views reflect those held by the majority of the populace. Perhaps more so than some contributors here appreciate. I also happen to agree with him on Iraq.
Anyone know why a whole load of lower offers have appeared for Tory seats driving the price modestly lower?
18. What market/which bookie ?
4/16. Dan/John L…when you think about a woman getting it, are you thinking of Harriet Harman or another female contender emerging?
18-Anyone betting (fixed price) on the next election must either be;
-completely crackers
-absolutely bonkers
-downright nuts
-have more money than sense
-or be a wishful thinking Tory who gets some kind of thrill of seeing his party as the clear favourite to win the next election (worth the investment I guess)
21. I dunno you could have backed Con last October at 2.1 and layed off today at 1.8 for a profit.
20- “Dan/John L…when you think about a woman getting it, are you thinking of Harriet Harman”
Andrea- very forward of you inquiring about the sexual preferences of Dan or John!!
If the labour leadership looks like a union stitch up then the Conservatives will be in for a good run up to the next GE in my view.
Crudas may have union backing which may or may not help him in the election for deputy leader. It won’t help Labour in the country.
Spreadfair seat market.
I would like to have more money than sense and am trying to get that way by taking it off those that do…
What prompted me to start putting more into this market was a friend of mine who is a serious Tory expressing some dissatisfaction with Cameron, and my own feeling that he is turning into a caricature of vacuity.
And believe me I desperately do not want to see another Labour government.
re 21. I’ve already pocketed a profit from the next General Election. A year ago when it looked as though Cameron was going to make it I sold Labour on the IG Binary spread market on which party will win most seats. As expected sentiment moved to the Tories, the price changed by enough for me to get out at a nice profit.
The great thing was that I used my credit account which meant I did not have to shell out a penny.
SeanT would surely be no more delighted at winning the Booker Prize than reading the compliments he’s received on this thread…
Jamie- sure with betfair but other fixed price bets that lock you into 2009. Why??
Quick question.
Does an individual need the backing of a minimum number of MPs to stand for deputy leader? In the same was as they do to stand for leader?
23. Tyson
28. I guess only those who think that they will not get that price again. Betfair is a fixed price - for the timeslot you bet in.
29. I think it’s the same of the Leadership and so in this case 44 signatures are needed.
Mike- I’ve just about mastered betfair (I think), and do the occasional fixed bookie bets, but my poor brain starts going into meltdown when you start talking about binary spread betting and credit. Way out of my league.
Incidentally I am pretty impressed about you picking about Cruddas-a veritable union outrider if ever there was one.
27- Hermes- I feel postively bereft reading a days thread of pbCOM without seeing any lyrical outpourings from seanT. I hope that he hasn’t been forced into submission by last nights sortie into communism.
7. “his media performances will not be that strong” I don’t know what Jon Cruddas’s chances are for being elected as Labour DL, but he impressed me with an interview he gave during the Labour conference.
He might be an ideal choice considering he is not associated with the present Blair cabinet?
Andrea @ 20. I suspect that more candidates will emerge nearer the day. If she hadn’t made a complete mess of things at DEFRA, Margaret Beckett would be interesting.
At risk of being unfair to Harriet Harman, I class her as one of our many MPs, in all parties, whose most important political thought is that they should be in charge and we should be grateful.
re 33. Sometimes I worry that when I say I’m betting on person then people think that I personally want that outcome. My feelings have absolutely nothing to do with it - I won on Bush is 2000 and in this year’s Lib Dem race I made sure I was a financial winner on Ming, although I thought then and still think now that politically he is an absolute disaster. Those Lib Dems who backed him got it very wrong.
I like challenging received opinion such as the “certainty” last year that David Davis would be Tory leader - though my respect for him as a politician has increased enormously since last year’s race.
What sold me on Cruddas was the line up of unions behind him, my conversation with Tony Dubbins and the USP that the Dagenham MP has developed.
37. Have a look at my points on previous thread
34. Forced into submission? As if! I’ve been looking after my daughter, as NickP kindly suggested last night
Thanks to everyone for their very flattering remarks - Tyson, lurkerrob, Farfield.. Makes it all worth it. Seriously!
I agree that last night’s fracas didn’t reflect well on anyone really - me included - but still, no bones broken, and we all live to fight another day.
As Tony says, let’s move on…
Gotta feed the bairn now!
Glasshouse at 29: Yes, deputy leader candidates need 44 signatures too.
Mike, I think your argument would be much stronger if the Trades Union and Constituency Labour Party components of the electoral college were still determined by the block vote. In the early 80s (cf Healey v Benn), Trades Union leaderships really could deliver their members. Now, with one member one vote, the election is going to be much more atomised, and my guess is that this reasonably sophisticated electorate will vote on the basis of reputation, preferring “heavy hitters” who have performed well at Cabinet level. The plain fact is that nobody, apart from aficianados of this site, has heard of Cruddas. If Betfair were offering a market for the deputy leadership, I would be laying him at 8/1. Much more likely, surely, that Hain or Johnson - or even Straw or Harman - will come through.
So will Cruddas get the 44 MPs to nominate then?
Also, do we get the ICM poll later or are they still teasing?
I will be back later after more steam engine making work.
How many trades unionists are likely to vote in the deputy election? More than vote in trades union elections?
37 and yet if you leaf back through threads of the distant past you will find yourself saying how much better Ming would be than Kennedy.
My understanding is that GB is supporting Cruddas, as are T&G. GMB are supporting Hain, Unison Johnson. Don’t know about Amicus. Other Unions are not big enough to have any real bearing.
re 45. Amicus is certainly for Cruddas.
re 43. Yes indeed because I was aware of his alcohol problem. My support for Ming ended at precisely 12.20 pm on Wednesday January 11th 2006 when he did his first PMQs. He didn’t get it then and he has done little to convince people since.
is there a you gov poll out at all tomorrow?
SeanT. Surely you could have thought of more appropriate names than lurkerrob and Fairfield!
I don’t think the TU section is that easy to predict
- remember that each union splits its vote according to the votes cast by members - it’s not winner takes all.
- yes the recommendation sent out with the ballot by the Gen Sec or NEC is an influence on members but so are the national media profiles of the candidates and personal recommendations by trusted activists and shop stewards in large workplaces - who could also potentially impact heavily on turnout by encouraging colleagues to vote.
- Amicus has not decided who to back yet - a move to endorse candidates was put at the National Political Committee held at LP Conference but the majority voted not to decide yet. Amicus is by far the largest affiliate and is quite finely balanced politically between left and right.
- Some of the mid sized unions affiliate at higher levels than you might expect - if my memory is correct both USDAW (traditionally moderate) and CWU (Johnson’s old union) affiliate at about half the size of GMB and TGWU so are quite important. Community (ex-ISTC and the union which nominated Blair in 1994) also affiliates at a not to be ignored level.
36. John L…if you exclude Beckett, the other high profile Labour women aren’t better than Harman…Hewitt (I don’t mind her, but I know to be the only one), Blears (another one who is not bad perse…but please stop smiling all time!), Ruth Kelly (no comment) and Hilary Armstrong (one of the most useless politician around)
Couple of questions:
Can Cruddas in any way be compared to the current deupty leader..not in policy but in personality?
How many of the voting unions are headed by women?
My old dad is a union member. Does he get his vote in in the Labour leadership/deputy leadership then even though he lives in Northern Ireland where Labour refuse to stand for election? (Well done lads the most sectarian gesture to be seen from any major Uk party in about 30 years)
49.”Some of the mid sized unions affiliate at higher levels than you might expect - if my memory is correct both USDAW (traditionally moderate) and CWU (Johnson’s old union) affiliate at about half the size of GMB and TGWU so are quite important. Community (ex-ISTC and the union which nominated Blair in 1994) also affiliates at a not to be ignored level. ”
The affiliation numbers are:
Amicus 631,100
Unison 570,000
GMB 400,000
TGWU 400,000
USDAW 322,100
CWU 210,000
Community 55,246
UCATT 51,000
TSSA 28,030
ASLEF 15,500
MU 10,500
BECTU 8,000
BFAWU 5,100
NUM 2,441
CATU 1,000
NUDAGO 600
NACODS 450
GULO 218
51. “How many of the voting unions are headed by women?”
I think 0
Howard Flight (remember him) has said he is focusing on Hereford. What odds assuming he’s selected for these purposes of course will people suggest for him being elected there in 2009.
Thank you Andrea..so very much a case of ‘Brothers’ then…
54 - only connect … will Hereford be Howard’s End?
Sky news reporting ICM in tomorrows Guardian has Labour on new low of 29, Conservatives 39, Liberals 22.
There is a lot of volatility about in all these polls, Labour leading at beginning of week, now 10 points behind, whats going on, with all these polls.
57. Terrible poll for Labour
56. Groan. Keetch is a three term Lib Dem MP others with that length of time have built up substantial majorities. Plus of course Flight can devote unlimited time to it. Assuming he can persuade local Tories he must have a decent chance I would guess.
AHM See my comment on previous thread.
57. That was Mori!!!
57. I know it is only one poll, but Lab 29% from ICM!
Andrea @ 50 — yes, indeed.
Sky reporting that it is Labour’s worst poll rating in 20 years.
62. It seems it’s the first time since 1987 with an ICM poll showing Labour below 30%.
Will Hazel Blears continue to smile?
Andrea thanks for finding the numbers - so USDAW actually affiliates at almost 75% of GMB or TGWU. Interesting. My hunch is the balance within the union section has changed a lot since the last contest in ‘94 as GMB and TGWU have shrunk both in real terms and affiliation levels. Have you got the affiliation numbers for the socialist societies?
29% is well below the current average for Labour. ICM seem to be becoming more volatile.
65 Yes because Liberals are up from 14 to 22 in a day lol.
Need a bucket of salt with some of these findings latley.
Think I will wait until Brown takes over before putting my money where my mouth is.
67. The last ICM poll (see link in Data Polls) was 40/31/22 so not that great a change in two months. I think that one was “worst Labour poll for 19 years”.
67. Sean, I think that the problem is that voter’s are becoming more volatile and we are seeing a reaction to various headlines.
This poll was after Sir Richard Dannatt’s interview and Iraq/Afghanistan has been in the news alot.
57: Ironic, because on Monday The Guardian used the Mori findings to propose the end of Cameron’s political honeymoon. It does show the dangers at the moment of wading in after a single poll and extrapolating trends. (Not that anyone would do that on PB.com, of course.)
66. Luke, sorry, I don’t know the socialist societies figures. I’ll try to find them.
I got the trade union numbers from the TULO website
Let me give you a cliche..the only poll that matters is the one at the ballot box. Whilst theres been pretty decent and consistent evidence that Labour has been hanging around the low 30s I think all the polls at the moment are inherently unreliable, especially as a basis to make betting choices.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this is protest stuff with many people who are normally solid Labour venting.
What I don’t believe the polls are truly showing, and at this stage perhaps can’t show is the swing voters. Many of the core will return to the fold but I believe come election time the swing voters will definitely swing away from Labour. A time for a change mood is going to win the Tories the next election unless they screw up in some unforseen way. That will not be reflected in polls this far out.
In addition, the talk of how much the Tories need to ahead of Labour in the polls to cover the uneven distribution of seats is also somewhat off beam. Swing voters, amazingly enough seem to congregate in swing constuencies.
69. I think the 30% level can be somehow a psychological thing too
Now Clare Short will start to think Labour is collpsing because she has many fans….
Looks to me that the variation between the various polls goes way beyond the Margin of Error that can reasonably be expected so we don’t really have a clue what is actually happening and why the polls are varying so much . Others vary from 10-16% where the M of E should only be circa 1.5% and LibDems vary from 14-22% where the M of E should be around 2%
74. Andrea, I agree and a poll rating of 29% for Labour will make the headlines. It is the message that Labour have not just lost that poll lead it has had for so long, but that the conservatives are beginning to start showing real signs of recovery.
The first vote on the Police and Justice Bill to overtune the Lords amendements has been won easily by the government this afternoon….just some “usual suspects” rebelling (looking through the division list, I see Corbyn, McDonnell, Alan Simpson and Kate Hoey) with BMA abstaining.
Clare was there and voted against the goverment…I think she has spoked in the debate, so it’s possible she wasn’t in the Chamber to see where she sat (to solve a pb.com discussion a couple of days ago)
78. ah, in a breaking news, Gorgeous George was there too today!
78. Looking better, I see that Godsiff, Mike Wood and Bob Wareing rebelled too
77 Before Conservatives start feeding the figures into Baxter , the Wells swingometer shows that even with a 10 point lead and Labour at 29% the Conservatives would not have an overall majority . LibDems would not be in meltdown but at 57 seats .
81. Mark, I suppose that a 10% lead would produce a Con majority anyway with the swing being above avarage in marginals.
Paul Keetch! I know him well. I grew up in Hereford, and he was the year above me at school.
A thoroughly decent and amiable bloke… if a tiny bit… uptight and earnest. Classic Lib Dem MP?
It’d be a shame if he lost because I suspect he is very hardworking and sincere - and devoted to his constituency; and I say that as an old Tory.
82 Why should swing be above average in marginals Andrea ? I don’t think swing varies between seats of differing marginalities though of course there is substantial variation between seats of the same marginality .
81-I will stick my finger out and propose that the swingometers need a to be corrected in some fashion. A ten point Tory lead would give them a majority, irrespective of what Baxter et all now say. You would need to gauge the tactical unwind just for starters and plug these into any calculation.
Put 2005 results into a 2001 swingometer and you will get Tories on about 20 less seats than they ended up having, and that with a smallish swing towards them. Any bigger swing would in my opinion exaggerate this underperformance on swingometers. That on the same boundaries, any new boundaries will produce unexpected results as notionals can be notoriously unreliable.
Re: Mark Senior
Just for once can you recognise that according to the polls in recent days, either the Tories are doing very well or the Lib Dems are scraping the bottom.
Yes the polls are volatile, which is what the conservatives said ahead of these polls. You instead chose to interpret the earlier ones as the truth indicating a fall in support for Cameron “honey moon over” etc.
Cameron does seem to be on the up……..
New thread on ICM
69 There were 2 other ICM polls after the one you quote before this latest one .
81 & 84. Mark it just doesnt work like that at all…it just doesn’t and you know that is so.
84. Mark, I accept that I can be wrong on this