Massive boost for Cameron from ICM
October 24th, 2006
-
The Guardian’s pollster shows the party has a 10% lead
The vote shares in this month’s ICM poll for the Guardian are just out and show a big move away from Labour with the party down below 30%. The actual vote shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster taken just after the Tory party conference CON 39 (+1): LAB 29 (-3): LD 22 (+2).
The movements are in line with yesterday’s Communicate Research survey and compare markedly with Mori which on Monday reported a 2% Labour lead.
It is important to note that the Mori fieldwork took place a week earlier than the ICM and CR surveys where the Tories clearly benefited from the big media exposure at the end of last week for their plans on taxation.
-
This survey is one in the eye for those pundits, like Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer and John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday, who had argued that David Cameron and George Osborne had committed an enormous blunder with their tax announcement.
This also reinforces my strong view that what boosts the Tories in the polls is media coverage, particularly featuring Cameron. The Labour and Brown strategy must be to do nothing which gives the Tory leader any prominence. The coverage of last week’s announcement went on for a day longer because Labour launched a pre-emptive strike against it.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
“The Labour and Brown strategy must be to do nothing which gives the Tory leader any prominence.”
In a GE campaign they can avoid to ignore him.
Anyway more than a DC boost it seems it’s Labour going down though
Yes, certainly a good poll for the Tories and a very bad one for us - no argument. It’s interesting that the ‘we might cut taxes, but no promises’ line seems to be gaining votes - like Mike I can’t think of anything else special that would have made the Tories go up in the period measured. As someone here said the other day, the Tories benefit if they’re talked about, since the risk for opposition parties is always to be ignored (which is the main LD problem at the moment, I think, not Ming).
1. My first line doesn’t make sense
2. Nick, go to vote!
3. Oh, no tellers for the no…
‘This also reinforces my strong view that what boosts the Tories in the polls is media coverage, particularly featuring Cameron. The Labour and Brown strategy must be to do nothing which gives the Tory leader any prominence.’
Perhaps that’s why the old genius Blair was keen to lay off Cameron and not get drawn into any spat. Wasn’t Brown the one keen to go in all guns blazing? Well, he clearly needs something a little more potent in his arsenal than Ed Balls.
Interesting to know why Labour’s vote is capsizing. I suspect it has little to do with any progress the Tories might be making but everything to do with the way Labour are presently perceived.
Blair is clinging on like a leech. Claire Short is a vulgarian and David Blunkett is a greedy seedy parasite. At the moment the only surprise is that 29% are still prepared to vote for them. Fortunately Brown on his white charger will soon arrive with an economy size can of Dettol.
2-So this would spell a problem in any run up to a GE, since that is when by definition opposition parties are talked about.
The LDs always seem to perk up during campaigns, perhaps because of added media coverage? NP what you say could be a tactical problem then for Labour, how can they not talk about DC and the Tories in a run up to an election? The Tories seem to know the power of brand Cameron as opposed to brand Tory and are likely to focus on this.
On the other hand, bad polls mean no snap election with GB, or indeed no election into 2010? The biggest real problem for Labour would be a collective loss of nerves. TB does not seem to be interested, GB seems to be strangely lacking in taking the initiative…enter—
I stand by my previous post, a 10 point Tory lead would give them a workable majority irrespective of swingometers.
I think it has to understood that this poll may reflect solid Labour voters protesting thus Labours poor showing is overstated on that level as many will return to the fold.
As pointed out on the previous thread what I don’t believe the poll shows is the depth of the movement of the much vaunted swing voter. Yes clearly some are leaning Tory at this stage but I suspect come election time they will actually put the cross beside the Tories and indeed more of those will go Tory from Labour than perhaps can be guessed from the polls at this stage (some of it maybe due to the Brown effect which i can see happening).
How those swing voters moving from Labour at GE on one side and protesting core voters coming back balance out is anyones guess but its perhaps a fair estimation that many of those returning core voters will in fact be a ‘wasted’ because they’ll be in areas where Labour were going to hold on anyway. Alternatively the swing voter types are more likely to be in constituencies where it matters.
5.”Perhaps that’s why the old genius Blair was keen to lay off Cameron and not get drawn into any spat”
It’s easy to do it if you know you won’t fight him in a GE.
In a GE campaign, how can Brown or labour just ignore Cameron? Even if they do, the media won’t and can’t do it in an election campaign.
Now they can avoid to talk about politics, but they can’t do it during a GE campaign. So DC will be on the news anyway, no matter what Labour does.
re 6 Maybe Labour is going down because Gordon is on the way?
Mike Smithson
I have to say, the “do nothing which gives the Tory leader any prominence” strategy would be disasterous. Talking about Cameron may boost Tory poll ratings, but at the next GE Cameron will be in the papers every day. If Cameron getting media coverage has the same effect then as it does now, then Labour are screwed. So Labour have to work out a strategy to attack Cameron effectively and make sure that come the next election, this is no longer the case, even if it does mean short-term poll pain.
6-How low did the Tories go in the bad old mid 90s?
10. Are you trying to wind up people?
to Nick Palmer MP….
As an activist I am disheartened by your approach. You seem a typical blaise MP. ‘Blair should announce his resignation after the locals’. As though only the GE is important and that ‘our/your’ policies are right. Alarm bells should be telling you Blair must go SOON. Your everything that is wrong with our party.
I have a sneaky feeling that the Yougov poll out later this week will show a different picture again perhaps time for a pb.com comp .
29% does seem very low, not that I’m complaining. Sub 30% does feel like a significant turning point, certainly if it is reflected in the next set of polls
It would be nice to think the electorate’s patience/tolerance has finally worn out and broken the back of the Labour vote, (from my point of view anyway).
But as has been mentioned many times before, the ICM interview technique tends to bump up the LD share in comparison with the other pollsters and certainly 22% looks to be significantly higher than expected, given vote share in the other polls, not least 14%.
Without having yet seen the weighting figures - and in defence of my Labour friends, I’m inclinced to take a more realistic view - shifting 2-3% from LD over to Lab.
12. -25
10. The futures bright. The futures Brown!
11. The problem with that strategy is that the person leading this assualt on David Cameron will be Gordon Brown. Labour have the same problem that the conservatives did pre 97′ attacking Blair, it just does not work as effectively when you are no longer seen as credible to a large amount of voter’s.
There must be high level of churn.
Received opinion seems to be some (more or less) move from Lab>Con (most marginals constituencies are after all straight fights between them)
LD>Con
LD>Lab
But how about traditional Labour voters, maybe BNP in smom places but would their staying at home eke in the Tories?
Also, the biggest imponderable is how GB would play. Ming has been pretty much a zero, at least so far. I think GB would go down like a lead balloon in Southern Engladn and the Midlands. But, how about in the North? It doesn’t really matter how well he does in Scotland or Wales, how many extra seats are there even remotely there for Labour? I do appreciate that opinion on GB is mixed though. As I said, we won’t know till we know. And then it could be too late for Labour if they choose wrong.
This is exactly what might have been expected after Labour’s mad few weeks…it’s just taken a bit longer than expected. If Lab hierarchy has come to it’s senses it will take this on the chin, accept that Lab is going to be around 30% for quite a while and try to grind out some re-building of support to cling on as the biggest party.
16 I agree with your comments that prompting generally gives a higher LibDem figure in ICM compared to say Yougov/Populus but the strange thing is that Communicate also used prompting and only got 14% .
Roger
I wish I lived in your world, it must be a wonderful place of Pixies and where reality doesn’t permeate. Cameron regularly gets better personal ratings than Brown, who has been the second most powerful man in government since the retirement of yer man Campbell, its not as if Brown has been hiding. Despite people saying that Gordon will somehow forge some remarkable new or unseen image when he’s in the top seat, he is in reality a known quantity and a considerable number of the voting public have already made up their mind on the man, and its negative. The imponderable is will they ignore that and vote for the party anyway. Many of them will have to or else he’s as good as dead unles sthe Tories mess up in grand fashion.
I’m sure that NHS workers about to lose their jobs will be pleased by the Brown with Dettol image….
That’s a very solid poll for the Conservatives, LD’s should be pleased to be up at 22% out of the 19/20 box. I think it’s really significant that Labour are below 30% for the first time - it vindicates the DC / GO strategy on tax IMHO. Would be interested to see the regional breakdowns in these figures - still feel that Cameron is piling up votes down south as the by-elections showed last week in Cambs showed, I still don’t see enough stirrings of life up north to give Cameron a chance of a working majority at the next election though. I think a lot of those M62 marginals - Keighley, Dewsbury, Batley & Spen etc. will prove too tough nuts to crack - will be fascinating to see which side reigns in their voters that have drifted to the BNP in recent years best, or will the BNP vote continue to rise overall - that is anyones guess at the moment!
Gloating aside, when was the last time Labour registered below 30% in a proper poll? Any more of this and surely the pressure on Blair to go soon will become very strong again…time to put some money down on Q4 and Q1 departures on Betfair….
On ballot papers voters are “prompted” as party affiliation is clearly stated. Hence, 22% may be a more realistic figure than 14%. In which case Labour is looking bad losing out to LDs and Conservatives?
I don’t think there is any way you can put a gloss on these figures for Labour. I always thought yougov gave a higher share to the Tories than the rest so don’t really expect much Labour comfort there. To claim yougov will give better results could be clutching at straws. [They also seemed in my eyes to have a better GE track record, if only it only really counts as the election gets under way.]
23.” I think a lot of those M62 marginals - Keighley, Dewsbury, Batley & Spen etc. will prove too tough nuts to crack”
Labour can hold those 10% majorities in the North, but maybe the tories can compensate it gaining 15% majorities in the south
Pm @ 24..I think the die has been cast on that. The only thing getting Blair before Q2 07 out is corruption, I suspect.
Splendid.
Now, where are roger, Tyson, Paul Lloyd and all the other gloaters from the Mori thread a few days ago? I’ve got their hemlock ready for them….
According to Baxter (yeah yeah I know) we would win Keighley, Dewsbury and Batley and Spen in a GE on those figures.
AHM Don’t get over excited. A little surprising and doesn’t really fit with other polls. Equally we still haven’t breached 40%. Mind you I am really looking very hard for something to criticise so that I can continue to seem slightly impartial. Meanwhile I have this quite nice bottle of Sancerre chilling in the fridge…excuse me while I get a bottle opener and a glass! Lol!
27-Even if it means 9 months more of drift?
If Labour starts flatlining at these levels I suspect he’ll be out before that. Or could it be that TB wants to leave and GB dones’t want to carry the can for disastrous locals and Scots/Welsh elections? The results could be so bad that GB risks starting off as damaged goods. Not a pretty time for Labour.
29. Batley and Spen seems to have a great difficulty to swing away from incumbents…IIRC it was one of the best Con performances in 1997
28 AHM. Now now Alastair don’t get your combinations in a twist ! … it is only one poll and Labour will still poll more than a thousand in Beaconsfield at the general election.
26 - agreed, which will mainly be London Lab Con battles where Cons are 15% behind in the south ie pretty much back to a clean sweep of Metroland from Brent North outwards, and seats like Eltham, too far behind in Edmonton I think although it was still a wafer thin Tory seat in 1992. Outside of London I’m sure all the North Kent marginals will go - (bye bye BMA for sure). Reading West which I pass through each day on my way to London will be very interesting - not sure that the Tories have done well enough in Reading at recent elections to be sure of a gain.
I think the Midlands will be fascinating at the 2007 locals and then we’ll have a better understanding of the likely Tory gains there come the next GE.
29 - Of course, Ben. I shall try and contain myself…
27. If you are right, then we need a Betfair market on how many seats Labour will lose in the locals, and we need to be loading the money on it.
31 - I think quite a lot of that had to do with the excellent constituency MP that was Elizabeth Peacock
Having just got some strange looks from the neighbours for whooping up and down the road, I think I should have taken my own advice AHM!
32 - We’ll see about that, Jack! Incidentally, I don’t use hair dye nor do I wear Versace. My hair is silvery-white and I am dressed in Savile Row exclusively (except for a small Clothiers in Bakewell)
Peter 2 @ 30..Yes.
31. Andrea - yes it was, only about a 7% swing I think. But the new Batley & Spen looks less favourable to the Tories than the old…and in fact the BNP were a very close second to Labour in total votes in the locals this year. Neighbouring Dewsbury is the better bet for the Tories on the new boundaries.
33. In London, Edmonton, Hayes and Harlington and Mitcham and Morden were Con in 1992, but they have swung to Labour in recent times with pretty big majorities. Labour was also leading the tories in 2006 local elections in those seats
Labour can be in trouble in the new Hammersmith with those polls. Tooting (held by labour in 1983) has now a smaller majorities than the seats mentioned at the beginning.
In the south Brighton Pavillion can be interesting…it can depend on what will happen to the Greens
Glaugester and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
can be gains if Labour does badly in the South.
Bristil NW shoul go tory next time
Labour vote in Exeter doesn’t seem very solid (even if the boundary changes should help them)
So, is the story of this poll (like our blue friends were arguing in the last one) our rise being double Cameron’s?
36. But Mike Wood is going against the trend too…a swing to Labour last year. The Lab majority is bigger than in 1997
43 Andrea - Mike Wood was anti-war and the constituency has a large muslim community.
- 14 rebels in the second vote about the Police and Justice Bill tonight
- Budegt voted down in the Welsh Assembly
45 What does that mean in Wales terms Andrea? Does that effectively mean (as it would in a Council) that the Welsh Assembly has NO money and any spending is illegal? Ultra Vires?
Batley & Spen will be a tough nut to crack - if I remember rightly Peacock held the seat with a negligible majority twice if not three times when seats of similar demographics had long gone Labour’s way. The boundary changes for next time are also favourable to Labour.
Wells has B&S as Conservative target 143 and I suspect if we win that then there will be a solid Conservative working majority to go with it.
46. 46. Ben, the opposition won a series of votes which demanded changes to how more than £14bn of public money will be spent.
The finance “minister” said there wasn’t enough money to satisfy all demands. So now weeks of negotiations between the political parties to reach a compromise are expected.
47. You recall well….she won by 1.6% in 1983, 2.3% in 1987 and 2.3% in 1992. The she lost just by 13.1% in 1997
Oh right. Thanks Andrea. I thought that might be likely because of the timing.
If cymrumark is lurking about anywhere, or anyone else from West of the border, how do you see this affecting the Welsh Assembly elections?
It’s the half-term holiday. Lots of our hard-working families are away. Bound to lead to some volatility in the polls.
51. Usually holiday periods show lower Tory shares and higher Labour ones…remember the infamous Populus tracker…
Can I break out the Champagne now?
Coming back from the pub, a phrase from Peter Hitchins on radio 4 stuck in the memory - People would rather tandoori their granny than support the Tories - the brand is finished.
Tories still below 40% though Labour in apparent melt down and Ming rebounds from 14% to 22% in 24 hours. Is that the biggest improvement in the history of polling?
Icarus you are tiring now. You cannot compare two different polling companies. ICM haven’t had the Lib Dems that low for a while. At least since March…
I am concerned however that you are thinking up quotes from Peter Hitchins on your way back from the pub. Maybe you have SeanT’s affliction - don’t post when pist…
Benedict @ 53. Don’t yet. Save it for GE night when we go back to 10DS…
10 re 6 Maybe Labour is going down because Gordon is on the way?”
Mike Smithson @ 10
Surely this poll - the first since Crudass surged in the deputy leader stakes - shows that your Jon is a real turn off!
56. Clare Short is probably going around the main lobby saying “I told you so….they’re all my fans”
The quote was Peter Hitchins tonight. More imnportantly have just booked Ryanair to get to the Munster Leicester rematch in January
OK, apologies Icarus. You don’t suffer SeanT’s inability to post whilst pist!
I hate to say it Nick P but I am hearing Jon Cruddas from all sorts of Labour people. People I would expect to be fairly typical. Maybe he has more support in the party than you think!
55. Where are your excitable little Tory friends tonight - the sad little losers who were almost coming because a rogue poll put the LibDems on 14% yesterday? They’re very quiet tonight, because as always, in everything they, and you, are wrong.
There’s a reason the Tory party is known as the stupid party.
57
:lol: 
60 - A pitiful parody of a pathetic caricature. But we love you all the same.
ColinW if you paid any attention to this site at all, rather than polishing your sandals and choosing which socks to wear with them, you would know only too well how often I condemn MORI. I don’t attack the Lib Dems for doing so badly in two polls neither of which utilise past vote weighting. If you were consistently below 18% I would be attacking you. But I am in such a good mood from the fact that we are still 17% ahead of you that I cannot be bothered to argue with you.
And so to bed…
55 Ben “…when we go back to 10DS.”
I never realized your former leader had Oliver as his middle name …. and such a backward step returning to another spell in opposition with the quiet man don’t you think ?!?!
64. … alone of course.
I am very pleased with tonights poll news. Its very good to see Labour under 30% and I think us tories can be forgiven for being in a celebratory mood this evening!
The 14 rebels seem to be: Cohen, Corbyn, Frank Field, Gerrard, Godsiff, Hoey, Hopkins, Lynne Jones, Marshall Andrews, McDonnell, Alan Simpson, David Taylor (voting in both lobby as an active abstantion), Wood, Wareing.
So usual suspects: some Campaign Groupers + Hoey, Field and Godsiff
The worst poll for Labour since 1987.
Any nominations for MORI as polster of the year?
Anyone?
IMHO, what the Labour Party needs to realise is that when they’re attacking David Cameron they’re attacking the affections and opinions of the British people.
The Conservatives faced exactly the same problem with Tony Blair in the 1990s. The British public, rightly or wrongly (it really doesn’t matter which) took a massive liking to Tony Blair and so took any attacks on him very personally. Blair was the chosen one - seen as everyone’s son/father/brother/uncle/nephew/friend etc. That’s why every Conservative attack on Blair rebounded so badly.
Now it’s David Cameron’s turn to be everyone’s favourite relative and Labour have to tread very, very carefully in all matters Cameron.
Meanwhile the Conservatives can get stuck into Brown without fear of public backlash - because nobody much likes him.
It might not be entirely fair but it’s the reality of the situation.
ColinW, FOT
I think the most interesting thing about thsi poll is Labour moving below 30%. Still, it is only one poll, and we shall see.
Labour must be a bit rattled though.
67 - ACS - Easy now. It’s just one poll (albeit ICM who I consider to have the better methodology), and there is a long way to go before we have a working majority after a GE. It is the *trend* that is more important - thankfully the trend for many months now has been to show a small but clear lead for us. This is pleasing - especially when put in the context of Brown’s dreadful polling figures, but there is much work to be done yet.
That said - whooppeee - how great to see Labour below 30% - even if it is just one poll at the moment. Whilst I think we are far from being seen yet as the automatic next government, there is a real feeling out there that these are the dying dog days of this wretched Labour government. It’s all to play for.
50 Ben - the likely effect will be
a) many weeks of wrangling and compromise before the minority Labour administration manage to get through a bastardised finance bill. This will take even longer than last year, because the opposition parties will want to extract as much political capital from Labour as possible in the run up to next May.
b) it may well strengthen the resolve of Labour to try and agree with the Lib dems a grubby power-sharing deal ahead of the elections next year. Labour will lose seats next May (currently have 29/60) and the experience of this minority period is not pleasant for them. They will not wish to repeat it from a weaker base.
c) to many voters it will come as no surprise and will further entrench the view that the Assembly is an impotent, expensive and bureaucratic waste of time and money. Exepct a very low turn-out in May.
Robin
71. Yes. The population here is entirely made up of millionaire Old Etonian PR parasites.
Rejoice, rejoice!
Benedict White, GFY
Having averaged the ICM poll with the You Gov poll showing a 6% Tory lead,the best extropolation from Anthony Wells site,methodically counting marginals that would change hands,yields a result thus:
Conseravtives 38.5% 303 seats
Labour 31.5% 273 seats
Liberal Democrats 18% 46 seats
Others 12% 28 seats
I do admit that Well’s data does not allow complete access to Scottish Labour MPs vunerable to the SNP-so I hope I’m correct within a handful of seats-by the way,as a Labour voter(who has the odd doubt as to whether they are that good),I get the message loud and clear-the next election could well be up for grabs
75 ColinW - Manners maketh the man, and your post at 60 was unecessary and made you look silly.
Benedict - don’t rise to it - he ain’t worth it.
Sorry *76* not 75.
Eyesight maketh the typist also, apparently.
RE 71, Steven Whaley,:lol:
I almost chocked laughing. Hopefully acurate though.
78 - ColinW is a complete embarrassment to the all the regular LibDem posters here - none of them can stand him - so Tory and Labour supporters here should be encouraging the sad, and obviously very lonely, little to$$pot. But a hug should be probably avoided.
Re 76, ColinW, if only I could. Perhaps as a man of obvious experiance you could explain how you do it?
77.”I do admit that Well’s data does not allow complete access to Scottish Labour MPs vunerable to the SNP”
I don’t think there’re many Lab MPs vulnerable to SNP…Gordon Banks in Ochil (1.5% majority)…then the next Lab/SNP seat is a 14.6% majority in Dundee West
Right then…
When do we think the YouGov polls out?
Re 77 Patrick, I appreaciate your candor. I would have hoped every election was up for grabs. Sorry for not making that so last time.
A good contest of ideas is a good thing for the country.
The breakdown for “others” include a 2% for UKIP and a 2% for the Greens.
Labour leading in the North, but being in third place among under 34 and among middle class voters
68. I know no-one is interested, but Keith Vaz also rebelled tonight
Re 79, Robin Wiggs
Andrea - as a sometimes contributor to the site, I (like everyone else) am always amzed by both your encyclopaedic knowledge of arcane British political matters and your lightning-fast Googling skills.
Do you mind me asking what the interest in UK politics is - or do you have a second PC permanently plugged into http://www.scommessipolitici.it ?
The Guardian repeats the now standard mantra:
Even if today’s Guardian/ICM result were repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would only end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, or hold only a narrow majority, since Labour gains most from the distribution of parliamentary seats across the country.
89 Someting odd happened there with the last bit cut off. It should have been thus ……
The Guardian repeats the now standard mantra:
Even if today’s Guardian/ICM result were repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would only end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, or hold only a narrow majority, since Labour gains most from the distribution of parliamentary seats across the country.
This may well be true but it is one of those odd quirky conundrums that the more this is said the more waverers may think it safe to stay at home and not vote Labour, or even to take a leap and vote Tory, as ‘they can’t get in on their own.’
And in so doing ensure that the Tories do indeed get in on their own.
88.”Do you mind me asking what the interest in UK politics is ”
Robin, to be honest, I can’t recall how it started.
Some weeks ago I was asked what my hobbys were…I was going to reply British policits, but then I thought it would have been too weird to tell it to other people!!
If those percentages for the three major parties are correct, Mike, it means that Others are down to 10% - almost half what CR had them at yesterday. I feel a need for a small pinch of salt (with tequila, of course).
I don´t think the Tories are doing THAT well - could it be that the BNP supporters are saying “Tory” because it sounds less unacceptable?
Re 89, The Grauniad is in denial. Its a straight fight against the the reincarnation of Oswald Mossleys British Union of Facists and the Conservative party.
Only the Polly has not quite noticed just how far to the right of Ghengis Khan the BUF/Labour have moved.
91 Andrea - British politics and this site is much the richer for your “hobby” interest. Thanks.
85,I do however feel that,from all three parties,at the next election there will be an overwhelming push to dance on the centre ground-from a Labour point of view,I can only see the next few months sliding downwards…without wishing an untimely demise upon anyone,a by-election in a southern/Midland Labour marginal maybe could provide the ’spark ‘that David Cameron is seeking(in the same way that in spring 1989,the then Labour opposition drew level with the then Tory govt,and the Vale of Glamorgan by-election of May 1989 gave a real impetus to Neil Kinnock at that time )-interesting times await us!
95.”a by-election in a southern/Midland Labour marginal maybe could provide the ’spark ‘that David Cameron is seeking”
if a Lab MP dies, the Chief Whip will pretend he/she is still alive and use Sion Simon to impersonate him/her in the Commons!
94. Thanks Robin. However I’m not that good!
92 Tressage - believe it! Yesterday’s CR poll was out of kilter, mostly due to their different (and IMHO inferior) methodology - esp the lack of past vote recall to balance the sample.
39% isn’t doing *THAT* well - it’s just steady progress pitched aginst Labour who seem to be reaching a critical tipping point.
At least Blair now looks like having two strings to his legacy - Iraq and the knowledge he took Labour through a full electoral cycle from unelectable through government to unelectable again.
RE 95 Patrick you are right that a straight Labour Conservative Midland sort of byelection would be remarkably interesting. It may even get my party interested in by elections
91: Andrea, I’ve honestly, but vaguely, always assumed you must be doing a PhD in political science on the subject of the psephology of the United Kingdom.
99. I’m finishing my specialist degree in Sociology (Organization and Labour Market, in particular)…I’ve finished my exams and I just have to do mu dissertation (which is taking more time than hoped)
Re 100, Well Andrea I would suggest you spend more time on your studies but I’d get lynched
92 Dream on.
100. Andrea, would you be interested in becoming a researcher/assistant to a UK MP in the future?
100 - Not another bloody Sociology student!!
69 - Actually the worst poll for labour since 24/09/04, when they were on 28%!
But other than that, you are correct.
86. “The breakdown for “others” include a 2% for UKIP and a 2% for the Greens. Andrea, if you are still up do you have the figures for other’s in last months ICM/Guardian poll?
I think the Conservatives are now a clear lay at 1.78 for Most Seats (Betfair) at the next GE (imp. prob. 56%) I would look to hold the position until the first polls come out following Brown’s coronation. These will likely show some form of bounce, so I think profits are a reasonable expectation.
Two further underlying reasons back this position. One, the tax commission marks the end of the Cameron ‘honeymoon’. I don’t mean to say he’s definitely reached a high-water mark, merely that the period where the general public assess him as a man (which he’s done well at) has passed; he must now come up with the policies. He’ll no longer be able to get the benefit of the doubt simply by being ‘Dave’. On the balance of probabilities, I see this as a sell factor for the Conservatives: for the simple reason that he’s done well so far, there’s more downside than upside as he moves onto less familiar (i.e. policy) territory.
Second, I think the Labour party’s showing in polls etc. is artificially depressed by the ongoing saga of Blair’s closing period. Once Brown takes office (barring a serious hiccup as part of the leadership election process), there will almost certainly be a quick (if not spectacular) bounce in the Labour party, simply for ending a period of uncertainty.
Can MORI retain any credibility? Are they not completely discredited by these last two polls, and perhaps also a Yougov one in the next couple of days? Why the FT would pay them to publish their poll I do not know…