Guest slot: Ian Jones on who will be next Chancellor
October 27th, 2006-
Who’s going to win the battle for Number 11?
These are my thoughts on the subject from a betting perspective.
Alistair Darling: The Trade & Industry Secretary is an arch Brownite, and has for a long while been one of the favorites to be the next Chancellor. Currently available on Betfair to back at 2.5/1, or to lay from 2.75/1. Darling could conceivably be the next Chancellor, but the current prices don’t tempt me either way at present.
Ed Balls: Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and for years a close adviser to Gordon Brown. Tipped by some as a future Chancellor, but would he really come straight into the cabinet at that level? Current back price of 2.65/1 seems quite short, and I would lay at this level. Balls is also hampered by a less than fluent style of communication (though that didn’t stop Gordon). To make matters worse, the boundary commission has abolished his seat!
David Miliband: Generally regarded as one of the ‘high flyers’ of the government, the current DEFRA Secretary was traditionally viewed as a Blair supporter. Though, he now seems to have a foot in both Blair and Brown camps, and is likely to continue his rise whoever the next Labour leader is. However, the current back price of 9.5/1 on Betfair would need to drift a little before I would risk even a small amount.
Stephen Timms: Currently Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and a leading Brownite. Has lately been taking a more prominent role in Labour’s attack on Tory economic ‘policy’. A comment by Nick Palmer on this site a couple of weeks ago that Timms would be a good bet, narrowed his price from 40 to 10 in a matter of minutes. Currently available to back on Betfair at 12.5/1, which still seems good value.
Others: Alan Johnson, John Reid, and Jack Straw are all available to back between 16/1 and 33/1, however I can’t really see Gordon appointing any of them as Chancellor. But what if a Blairite (say John Hutton) was the next leader? Would he bring in another Blairite like Alan Milburn to be Chancellor? I wouldn’t touch Milburn, even at his current back price of 75/1 as I can’t see anyone other than Gordon being the next Labour leader. George Osbourne’s lay price of 75/1 looks good value if you are brave enough to lay at those kind of levels!
To conclude, Darling is a feasible candidate, but I am not tempted by his odds. Balls will probably be Chief Secretary in a Brown government, and therefore is well worth laying at current prices. Miliband could be worth a small punt if his price drifts further (but only to lay off when the price tightens). Timms at 13.5 is excellent value. He is a Brownite, and knows the Treasury well.
My money is on Timms – and I’m keeping it there.
Ian Jones
Site notice: Sean Fear’s local election report will be posted tomororw.
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carry on over from old thread
The Annabel Goldie is a clone of Margaret Rutherford or Fabia Drake
This is uncanny look at this picture of Fabia Drake
http://www.aveleyman.com/actorsD/p000048800HTML That has got to be proof that Fabia Drake wins hands down.
Darling Stop Gap
Gems from the ICM archive:
May 1986 Con 28% Lab 39%
Apr 1990 Con 32% Lab 56%
Still all to play for.
Sorry Fabia Drake
http://www.aveleyman.com/ActorsD/P00004880.HTML
Considering the Scottishness issue, would it be wise for Gordon to appoint a Scottish chancellor (especially if “Welsh” Hain becomes Deputy PM)?
Kelly (another ex-Treasury minister) worth a punt if the odds were favourable? Or Alexander? Or even Straw? Darling may be favourite but who wants to bet on a semi-sure thing?
Re 2 Jonathan as I said on the last thread those polls are not relevent as they are not adjusted for shy Conservatives.
On the next Chancellor front, if Gordon does get it I would like Ed Balls because between the pair of them they will be easy to attck and so lacking in charisma that the Conservatives will be able to walk the next election
6 Were Conservatives shy in 1986, I doubt it? Going to walk the next election eh? What’s the majority to be then? Let’s see a prediction.
7 - Can anyone play?
My prediction for the next GE is:
Con 358, Lab 146, Lib Dems 106
Well, more of a guess than a prediction…
Ed Balls needs to find a seat before the next election before he considers joining the cabinet.
RE 7, Jonathan there is the problem now recognised that Conservative voters are either not in when pollsters call, or won’t do the poll.
8 Your mouth to God’s ears.
I do think it will be bad for Labour. Much worse than current polling suggests. Why?
Reasons:
1. The May locals will strip them of their activists.
2. They have no money.
3. The longer the clock ticks, the worse it gets for the NHS; people realise the reason their wards are closing is Gordon Brown got his sums wrong.
4. No Iraq exit strategy.
5. Immigration. Anybody want to bet that Labour - who oppose the Tory idea of a border police force - can actually prevent a million Bulgarians/Romanians entering the UK next year? Immigration is a far larger issue than it was last time, because between the last election and today, Lab estimated 13,000 Polish immigrants and 1 million - 1 in 60 of our entire national population - came from one country in one year.
6. No clear run for GB still + falling polls = ferrets in a sack time and the public hates that.
So all in all, I am feeling extremely confident.
11 - my prediction is based on two assumptions. Namely - massive anti-Labour tactical voting and almost no seats changing hands between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in either direction.
8. I think Labour won’t fall so much and the Libdems won’t reach 10 seats. And too many seats left for “others”
13. 100…the Libdems will get 10 seats!
13. I’ve left 40 seats for “others”. I don’t think that’s TOO unrealistic - because there are already about 30 of them. The new 10 will be mostly SNP.
Obviously another disasterous poll for the Conservatives……….sorry I didn’t realize we’d changed the subject………
OK next Labour Chancellor will be Balls. Labour owe it to the headline writers.
15. 10 new seats for SNP seem quite unrealistic to me….last year they did ok in their target seats, but they fell in the majority of other seats, so they’ve less potential targets now. They should gain Ochil…then their next marginal against Labour is Dundee West (14% majority), then a couple of others under 20%. The rest seems very difficult to get, but again you think Labour will be reduced to less than 140 seats!
And they’ve 2 seats vulnerable to the tories
16 Rog, in an early draft of the article I did make some reference to “Darling and Balls” sounding like they should be in a Carry On film. I took out the line as I had to get the word count down.
Re 16 Roger
Balls Budget anyone?
Brown’s Balls will be in the Treasury team to ensure Brown’s Darling stays that way.
I think the “worst case” scenario for Labour is doing as bas as the tories did in 1997. In 1997 the tories lost 144 seats to Labour, 30 to the Libdems, 3 to the nats and Tatton to Martin Bell.
Similar losses for Labour will give them 173 seats.
I see that the Libdems have selcted their candidate for the Lab/LD marginal of Oldham East: it’s Alison Smith, a local councillor…in Aberdeen. She was the Moray’s by election agent
13 Andrea, I’m going to do a Lib Dem and quote you on the next set of leaflets… :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
Andrea, since WW2 have Labour ever been below 200 seats? I seem to remember some statistic thrown at me by some NuLab apparatchik that Michael Foot had more MPs than William Hague managed…
21. The girl seems to have worked hard to get the nomination. She even built up a site and a leaflet
http://alison-smith.org.uk/index.html
(I suppose the Iain Dale who published and promoted her website is not the famous Iain Dale..especially because this one is from Aberdeen)
22. Ben, a typo…..I swear
23. yes, Ben, Foot managed to get 209 MPs. Labour has always been over 200 seats after 1945
Why do the LibDems need to bring someone from Scotland to fight an English seat? Are their local and English candidates so poor?
Do they have English LibDem candidates in Scottish parliamentary constituencies?
“Balls squeezed….” “Osborne mauls balls”
26. well, the former Labour MP for Oldham is an Aberdeen councillor now…it seems that Oldham and Aberdeen have lots of interchanges!
26 she can converse with Andrea in Italian.
The Libs do have the likeable Mike Rumbles (West Aberdeenshire) from the North East of England.
Re 27, Roger I wonder if we should compile as many pottential headlines as posible. Then divy them up and play a sort of headline bingo!
26. Well, it’s not only the Lib Dems. My local Conservative MP is Scottish. And I live in Essex.
Andrea That was before but now there is much more concern about the English Question. It seems, to say the least, a little insensitive for a party with a Scottish MP as leader sending down Scottish candidates to England. Unless, of course, there is truly a balance and English candidates are appointed in Scotland.
In which case I would be delighted as it would be a really Unionist approach. Great!
But I bet they don’t.
29. yes, Marcia, I saw it.
29 Marcia Genuinely pleased to hear it. I hope the local parties celebrate the fact.
31 Ian Jones Yes, I am not saying it is only the LibDems that need to be careful it is not a one way street. OK for Scots to stand in England but not English to stand in Scotland is not an acceptable position.
My local SNP MSP is originally from Redcar. Her brother and sister have wonderful Geordie type accents and I just love to listen to them when they come up to help at election times.
26/34 Blue2, presumably you are saying that that disgraceful Liam Fox should be banished to the other side of the water?
As it is, the Aberdeenshire Lib Dem MP who is Ms Smith’s present employer is the Englishman (Wirral) Malcolm Bruce.
23 Andrea, since WW2 have Labour ever been below 200 seats? I seem to remember some statistic thrown at me by some NuLab apparatchik that Michael Foot had more MPs than William Hague managed…
Possibly because of the how Scotch are given more MPs.
Like the Scottish Education system, paid for but denied to the English, it is an inequality that is long overdue for redress.
Besides, when Labour loses Scotland to the SNP, Scotland will be independent. Labour will lose their Scotch advantage.
37 In 1983 Labour under the useless Michael Foot still ended up with 12 seats more than the brilliant Michael Howard.
George Osborne. 3/1.
Just to go slightly OT, The best year ever for the NHS? I don’t think so.
See my blog for an 8 year olds story.
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
(And also a late election result from last week
)
Getting back to the subject in hand, Stephen Timms is odd in the extreme. He looks and sounds like the geeky kid who sat at the front of class getting on with his work whilst the rest of the class runs riot. I know its not a qualification to be “normal”, but isn’t he too odd to be Chancellor ?
Re 41, Nich Starling, Is he odd compared to Balls? He must be odd indeed.
41. You could disqualify many of the cabinet on that basis…Prescott, Beckett…need I go on? Come to think of it, maybe even a majority of MPs.
Well, I am off for a beer!
26. “Why do the LibDems need to bring someone from Scotland to fight an English seat? Are their local and English candidates so poor?
B2W, I used to live in a neighbouring council ward, and I can tell you that quite a lot of voter’s in in the area might not necessarily be Aberdonian born and bred.
Aberdeen has a very mobile population because of the oil/gas industry and I don’t think that it would bother people if someone standing for the council/Holyrood or Westminister were from South of the Border if they were a good candidate.
45. Only the little Englander Tories care about this sort of thing. They are sad sad sad.
Stephen Timms in a previous existence?
http://www.addamsfamily.com/addams/lurch1.jpg
46 - and 14% ahead of Labour Labour Labour
Keep a picture of Stephen Timms on top of your fireplace to keep your kids away from it.
I notice nobody talks about Andrew Smith these days. Now he really is odd !
On the subject of the thread, the context for this appointment is the allocation of the three top jobs in a new administration. (IMO the idea that Home Affairs and Foreign Sec are top jobs is a somewhat 19th century concept, but that’s the way it is.) Assuming it is Brown, he will need to make some moves to unite the party and placate the big beasts. As Andrea has pointed out, he will also have to dispel the caricature of a ‘Scottish Raj’ and the notion that the new government represents a Brownite faction.
My guess is that if Reid doesn’t stand he will stay at the Home Office or become Foreign Sec. Timms and Darling will move sideways, Balls will be promoted but not yet to Chancellor. That leaves Miliband, Kelly, Straw and Benn with a realistic chance.
Straw has a great chance.
49. Just seen your picture on yr blog. Normal for Norfolk?
There are quite a lot of MSPs who were born in England:
Lab:
Des McNulty, Stockport
Mary Mulligan, Liverpool
Elaine Murray, Hitchin
SNP:
Christine Grahame
Shona Robison, Redcar
Con:
Phil Gallie, Portsmouth
Jamie McGrigor, London
LD:
Robert Brown, Newcastle
Mike Rumbles
Grn:
Shiona Baird, Hereford
Chris Ballance, Worcester
Mark Ballard, Leeds
Mark Ruskell, Wisbech
In addition, Jackie Baillie (Lab) was born in Hong Kong; Christine May (Lab) was born in Dublin; and John Swinburne (SSCUP) in Pennsylvania.
There are probably others (eg. Jeremy Purvis?), but the SP website only has place of birth details for about half the MSPs. And there were several more I think who lost their seats or stood down in 2003.
More than half the parliamentary Green party were born down south.
Story from the Mail, “British workers forced out by Eastern European migrants”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=412853&in_page_id=1770
This should help Labour’s poll standing…
54. Not like the Mail to run a story like that….
55. Not sure what you are saying - but it appears you arent denying it.
It is either true - or not. Lets face it, its true.
Does Labour really hate the British people so much?
56. I was just being sarcastic. I’m no Labour supporter, but I don’t suppose they “hate” the people, as you put it.
More a case of having got out of touch with them.
Scottish MPs born in England:
Lab (3/39):
Gordon Banks (Ochil and South Perthshire), Acomb, Northumberland
Alistair Darling (Edinburgh South West), London
Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith), Dagenham
LD (1/12):
Malcolm Bruce (Gordon), Birkenhead
SNP (1/6):
Angus Robertson (Moray), Wimbledon
Con (0/1):
none
In addition Mohammad Sarwar (Lab - Glasgow Central) was born in Pirmahal, Pakistan.
This list is probably not comprehensive either: does anyone know where these MPs were born: Jim Devine, Anne Moffat (formerly Anne Picking), Jim Sheridan, Danny Alexander, John Barrett, Alan Reid, Robert Smith, John Thurso, Angus Brendan MacNeil, Peter Wishart.
Evening all! My hips still don’t lie…
I’ll opt for Darling as the stopgap until Osbourne takes over.
It’s a nice open field - I still think Stephen Timms should be the favourite, for the reasons mentioned, but any of ten or so names are plausible. I wouldn’t think that Gordon will want to make a noted rival Chancellor and that narrows the field a bit. (for instance, it won’t be John McDonnell!)
What odds for Brown as Chancellor? Of course it need not be Gordon, it could always be his previous voice on earth, Nick Brown. Or has he been beamed up/fallen out with the boss…?
Nick P does that last comment really narrow the field…?
We all know the Chancellor will be Gordon, whoever is collecting the salary. He’ll also be the Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary, International Development Secretary, Health Secretary, etc etc etc
:lol::lol::lol::lol:
60 I agree it could be any one of a number of people, but looking at the odds a couple of things jumped out.
Timms looks great value.
I suppose Ed Balls is ‘plausible’, but I just think his odds are far too short.
“It wont be John McDonnell”. Thanks for that Nick!
62. Ben. You are not suggesting that the lovable cuddley Mr Brown is a control freak are you…
58 There are innumerable English born & bred MPs for Welsh seats, e.g., Martin Caton, Nick Ainger, Ian Lucas, Mark Tami, Madeleine Moon, David Hanson (all Labour); Jenny Willott (LD).
Lembit Opik (LD) was born & brought up in N. Ireland, Stephen Crabb (Con) in Scotland.
Additionally, that well-known “Welshman” Peter Hain was born in Nairobi. It’d interesting to know if he ever set foot in Neath, before discovering it was a very safe Labour seat.
Postman Roger @ 54 — some of us have suggested that the economic plight of those at the bottom will be Labour’s biggest problem (and not that Gordon is Scottish) even if these people just stay at home on polling day.
I see that on the betting odds for the next GE, the Libdems have drifted from 100-1 to 125-1. They were 80-1 not that long ago.
Re 52. My parents were not from Norfolk, so say what you want. Personally, I don’t think I look that odd, although “you’ve won second place in a beauty contest” in Monopoly is always the best I was ever going to achieve.
Post a picture of yourself so we can judge.
Ed Balls - when there was a threat to close a fire station in his constitency namely Normanton Fire Station where the hell was he???
No where to be seen!!!!
New Labour - New Danger!!!
64 I’d never knowingly accuse Mr Brown of being a control freak. Much!
70. ha ha ha! I can’t wait for him to take over and see Labour heading to 25% after they lose 700 councillors next May…
68. “post a picture of yourself so we can judge”.
No chance, I know my limits. I was just querying your personal attack on Timms and Andrew Smith. Your own photo, with the little piggy eyes and overhanging neanderthal brow, not to mention the silly and outdated skateboard hairstyle, does you no favours.
72. Does the L stand for Lurch?
What about the photo of Ed Balls looking like one of Harry Enfield’s more hideous creations??
73. We could all have a guess at what the W stands for, Colin.
Apparently Yahoo are spineless scum.
I have written an article on my blog.
We need to get at Yahoo so that it recognises that this sort of behavior will not be tollerated.
Mike, for the sake of completeness can we have Hilary Benn featured in your next ‘Anyone but Gordon’ article?
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1933821,00.html
Clifford Chance moves admin work to India
Angela Balakrishnan
Saturday October 28, 2006
The Guardian
Clifford Chance, the world’s largest law firm, announced yesterday that it would outsource much of its administration work to India, in what will be the biggest move offshore ever undertaken in the legal profession. The proposal is expected to yield more than $18m (£9.5m) in annual savings.
A service centre being built in Delhi is due to open next spring. It will cover 4,000 sq metres and create 300 jobs in IT, accounts and other areas of business support. The company would not quantify job losses at its existing offices.
Didn’t Gordon remark that growth in the service sector would offset the declining UK manufacturing base?
8,11&12 That would surely have an interesting impact on the Lib Dems and PR. Suddenly they could dream of absolute power under FPTP! I do think the Tories will gain from the Lib Dems up to fifteen in present best circumstances for them, with perhap[s a freakish Lib Dem gain or two from the Tories, but I do thin you are absolutely right that the tactical voting pendulum has begun to swing against Labour, hence I expect a significant rise in lost depositis by the Tories in their hopless seats even as they pick up wads more MPs elsewhere.
john Healey will be the next Chancellor.
Ref. your comment - “My money is on Timms – and I’m keeping it there.”
Mike - have you actually met Stephen Timms? Although being deeply boring does not disqualify someone from being Chief Secretary - in fact it’s an asset - Chancellors have a public profile and need to win over the electorate. I suggest you meet with Stephen and then re-assess your odds.
Ref. my previous comment - sorry, this should have been addressed to Ian Jones, not Mike!