Is it time for Gordon to be biting his nails?
October 27th, 2006
-
Does more polling bad news make him less certain for leader?
The final poll of this survey rich week has seen another poor performance for Labour, more terrible figures for the Lib Dems. and the Tories consolidating a significant lead. The shares in YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph with comparisons on the last poll a month ago are CON 39% (+3): LAB 32% (-4): LD 16 (nc).
The YouGov figures reinforce the polls on Tuesday and Wednesday from Communicate Research and ICM which means that all the latest polls are reporting a very similar level of Tory support - 38%, 39% and 39%. Where the three pollsters differ is on the Labour-Lib Dem split. CR put the Ming’s party at 14%, YouGov has it at 16% while ICM reported a 22% rating.
A key question in YouGov was “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?”. The split was CON 46% - Lab 33% which is by far the biggest margin that such a forced question has seen. This is how opinion has changed when this point has been put:-
FEB 2006 CON 37: LAB 43 (LAB +6)
JUN 2006 CON 44: LAB 38 (CON +6)
AUG 2006 CON 43: LAB 36 (CON +7)
OCT 2006 CON 46: LAB 33 (CON +13)
So the position for Gordon is getting progressively worse just at a time when he needs to be convincing his party that things will be better under his leadership.
This is, of course, a forced and a false question because voters have a much wider choice and there is no mention of the Lib Dems. As Anthony Wells notes in UK Polling Report it will be interesting to see from the detailed data how Lib Dem supporters split on this issue because it might be a good pointer to tactical voting.
-
The worry for Brown must be of poll deficits on this scale leading to a panic and the succession not being quite the foregone conclusion that it appeared.
One factor that I have raised here before is that Brown might blow up during what must be an extraordinarily difficult period for him. His performance at Treasury questions yesterday can only be described as bad-tempered and it’s just possible that his desire for the job that he has craved after for so long might lead him to do something that could have serious ramifications.
Labour MPs in marginal constituencies are going to feel a bit uncomfortable this morning. The saving grace for Brown is the lack of a viable alternative.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
test
It’s interesting that despite the figures moving against Brown in the question vis a vis Cameron, his price is now at or near the lowest it’s been since the last election. As Mike says, this probably has a lot more to do with the lack of alternatives than any qualities Brown has displayed in recent weeks. In fact, precisely because others were looked at and seem to have been found wanting, it’s probably strengthened Gordon’s hand.
As I’ve been out of easy internet access travelling across Russia and Japan over the past three weeks, I’m perhaps more surprised at the price than those who’ve been keeping a closer eye on events. When I left, GB was trading close to 1.60, so for him now to be well below 1.40 is quite a significant move (although it’s also a much more realistic value, so could be written off as a market correction; there was speculation at that time as to whether someone was pumping Brown out and others in to boost their chances - if so it will have been expensive to no effective end).
The biggest risks to Brown does now appear to be either himself or ‘events’. But despite what must be pretty severe pressure, he’s been at the top of the Labour party for 15 years or so and has avoided making any serious career-threatening gaffes so far, so I’d be sceptical of him blowing it like that now. In fact, his inaction when confronted by that kind of possibility is probably a bigger risk to his chances. Even so, in those years - since John Smith became leader - Labour’s been pretty constantly in front, often by huge margins. That’s not the case now and that does apply a different kind of pressure.
Will he cope? Yes, I think he probably will. If next months mid-terms are as bad for the Republicans and Bush in particular as is projected, that will add to the sense of Blair being on his way out as well as he loses his key ally (even though Bush will outlast Blair by over a year). If there is no point in Blair staying and no alternative to Brown then a short stay in No 10 for him would appear to be by far the likliest outcome.
The “forced choice” Lab vs Con question (without the LibDems) is extremely important. If the figures with Brown can be trusted (slightly dubious) then this represents an enormous shift from the position at recent elections and will impact significantly on the extent to which vote share relates to seat share. It is this question that provides the key to tactical voting.
Once again, rejoice, rejoice!
As Labour slide in the polls, they continue to introduce barmy looney left policies.
Snoopers taking pictures of your bedroom, Key stone cops replaced by pseudo police in high visibility jackets, police choosing which type of people to protect, illegal immigrants jumping to the top of School waiting lists, police in a politically correct tizzy trying to find language exceptable to extremists…
then there is open immigration - during war time.
It is almost as if someone wants to make sure Labour is banished from government for ever.
War-time? Give me a break.
Quick test
On the face of it, another bad poll.
And yet, and yet … plug those numbers into Anthony Wells’ predictor and you still get the Tories only 24 seats ahead of Labour - and still a long way off an absolute majority.
Good-ish for Cameron, but not good enough.
Broken record time….
The Tories are in the high 30’s, good but not good enough, Labour are in the low 30’s, bad but treading water and the LibDems are flatlining in the high teens.
On the succession issue - I’m no fan of Brown but he is no John Major, he’s a formiable operator. He will either be unchallenged or steamrioller than opposition in the leadership election. I can’t see him winning less 60% of the vote.
I’d be very surprised if there was a Brown Bounce (though not that big & not that long)when he takes over and very surprised if the grneral perception of him in office wasn’t considerably better than the expectation.
All the polls are interesting but they tell us nothing until Blair goes and we have a clearer idea of the political landscapes that the next election will actually be fought under.
Sorry that should say if there isn’t a Brown Bounce
AUg 2006 should say CON + 7, Mike.
re 11. Changed - thanks.
By the way, can I just remind people of my prediction at post no 247 on last night’s thread:
Conservative - 42%
Labour - 32%
Liberal - 16%
Other - 10%
Apart from a 3% switch from Conservative to Other, I was spot on with the rest.
Do I get a prize?
Last night Nick said that Gordon would probably not want the job until after next May’s locals. It’s easy to watch Labour’s poll rating disintegrate and wish that the increasingly unpopular and irrelevant Blair would clear off before the damage becomes irreparable.
But Nick’s right. Cameron’s lead is built on nothing. There is no real enthusiasm for him and his ideas as there was for Blair in the ’90’s. No ones waiting with baited breath for a Cameron government He has simply looked new at a time when Labour have looked stale.
If Brown arrives full of ideas and the Tories remain a hollow shell then I see no reason why Labour’s ratings shouldn’t swing into the 40’s almost immediately.
3% is a bit big!
I am in a celebratory mood this morning. After May Labour will be denuded of all their activists. It will be better than all te current polls suggest.
“If Brown arrives full of ideas and the Tories remain a hollow shell then I see no reason why Labour’s ratings shouldn’t swing into the 40’s almost immediately.”
Polyanna prize for most optimistic spin of the day, Rog! I admire it though
The fact that Labour does much worse when Brown-Cameron vs Lab-Con questions doesn’t shake your faith in this immediate rocket for Labour upon his takeover?
13 Eleanor - No I shouldn’t think so - the reason people say “other” is because they mean it, or they mean (usually) not Tory not Labour. So balance of actual switch from “other’ in real elections (if those voters don’t stick to their opinion poll choice in an actual election), would be certainly an evenish split between Con Lab and LD, if not slightly more to the LD, as they are still seen as somewhat away from the main political establishment.
14 - Possible May 2007 news - SNP great gains in Scotland, Labour reverse in Wales and English locals. Gordon Brown becomes PM as SNP & LDs attempt to form a new Scots Government. How will Gordon bring in his array of bright shiny policies while dealing with a constitutional crisis in his homeland, while losses in England demonstrate Labours unpopularity there?
Rotherham West By Election Result:
Lab 1027
BNP 606
Ind 538
Con 146
LAB HOLD Election caused by death of sitting Labour Councillor
large bnp vote there.
14-GB’s great problem if he comes in after May is he may come in as damaged goods presiding over a disintegrating hold on power. If he comes before May he risks being damaged by poor locals. His gamble is perhaps to come in before May and hope Labour don’t do as badly as predicted and hence take credit. Is he a gambler? my guess not. Lose/lose all round?
Makes you think what was the point of all the high drama a few weeks ago in forcing TB’s hand. It was pretty clear TB was going after the locals anyway, so why the whole charade that just made Labour look ridiculous like children fighting in the sand pit?
O/T-Interesting how Johnson seems to ahve disappeared as quickly as he rose to prominence. Who’ll be the next Blairista candidate?
22-Last May was
Lab 1205
LD 634
Ind 1137
two points here
Firstly given that there is no general election on the horizon, earliest likely date is 2 1/2 years away how relevant are the nuances of the polls? If over a period of time, I would suggest at least 18 months, the tories establish a lead of 10 percent or better ( and by my reading they have not established that yet, average seems 39ish, 31ish, 19ish ) it might tell us something but there are so many examples of governments being seriously behind in the polls and then coming back to win the next general election ( Schroeder, Thatcher, Major myriad examples in the US etc etc ).
Secondly I am dubious that beyond the relatively small and very distinguished readership of this site and the papers that pay for the polls, anyone takes a lot of notice, certainly I cant see it making any difference whatsoever to the Labour leadership. Everyone knows Blair is going and he is getting the blame for the party’s troubles. Questions about Brown’s popularity or otherwise remain theoretical and speculative until he becomes PM. Long shots do occasionally pay off but any other outcome other than Brown as the next PM / Labour leader do seem to remain extremely unlikely and a couple of months of these sorts of polls wont change that.
23. Regular readers of this site and followers of the betting tips on it will know that long shots in the political sphere have a surprisingly consistent tendency to pay off.
Just a reminder:
“I was pointing out some months ago that Cameron’s ratings were in decline . Conservatives on here were rather discornful to say the least at the time bit sorry chaps and chapesses I was right then and the FT headline shows the trend is being picked up by the media . As to the reasons for it , to me the reason is clear - he is a PR strawman with no policies and gives the impression that he has no firm principles that he will put before his pursuit of power .
by Mark Senior October 23rd, 2006 at 9:41 am”
Mike: “Labour MPs in marginal constituencies are going to feel a bit uncomfortable this morning.”
As your representative from this distinguished group of splendid people, can I respond? To be perfectly honest, what’s puzzled me in recent months has been why we were so narrowly behind after one damned thing after another. If you imagine the electorate as one person, basing its view on what it reads in the press, and say to it: “The Tories have a nice new leader who is dropping many of the controversial Tory policies on tax, immigration, and the NHS - indeed he says he loves the NHS. Labour is a bunch of warring factions and everything is a mess.” If it responds by saying “I think I’ll swing 4% of me from Labour to Tories” that is an entirely understandable response, and still quite a modest one. (To avoid misquoting, let me emphasise that I’m citing the media presentation of the facts, not my view.)
Now every time Labour MPs decline to panic, people say (a) we’re complacent and (b) we’re like Tories in 1992-97, in denial. Sure, ‘a bit concerned’ is a reasonable description. But virtually every MP in this category has been around for years. We’ve seen all kinds of disasters and periods when people snarled at us on the doorstep, something that is really not happening at the moment. A Tory lead of 7% or so is more than we’d like, but it’s nothing special in the long run. We generally feel we just need to get on with the job and keep an open mind about how things will look at end-2007 - we genuinely have very little idea, and decline to get worked up about it now. Some of those who would like us to are relatively new to this game, but history suggests that if you overreact to every poll deficit you just make things worse - the messy attempted coup a few months ago being a very good example.
As for the local elections - well, we have no overall control in marginal Broxtowe, and all-out elections in May. IMO it will still be NOC afterwards. The Tories are just not working the patch. I cited a debate with 120 11th-year students where they didn’t bother to send anyone and their invisibility on the national Tory NHS day; the latest example is a controversial development (a factory to crush concrete sleepers and periodically shower the area with dust) in ultra-Tory Toton ward, where the three local Tory councillors have so far done nothing whatever to inform or consult residents, while I’ve contacted everyone in the area with a two-page briefing. We certainly don’t have as many activists as in 1997. But they seem to have almost none at all.
25 The Conservative party ratings may be steady in the polls ain the high 30’s but Cameron’s personal ratings have been in decline for some months in both Mori and BrandIndex .
Can’t be bothered to trawl through selective quotes from you Rik , there are far too many , it would overload the server .
Some Labour MPs may start to panic but probably less than 20% of them… The real area for panic is amongst the Lib Dems. Polling well below 20% with the prospect that when Gordon Brown takes over he will actually attract back the anti-Blair votes they picked up.
If Ming and his team are right to say that there maybe a Oct 07 GE, what are the 50%+ of Lib Dem MPs that face the real possibility of losing their jobs in 12 months going to do? Time is not on their side.
Ming is the more significant Leadership question.
Rotherham West result last May: Labour 1205 Liberal Democrat 634
Independent 1137, vs Lab 1027, BNP 606, Ind 538, Con 146 now.
See http://www.yorkshiretoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=4251&ArticleID=1486803
which despite the dateline is from last May. Evidently Vines (the Independent this time) is the same person who stood in May and previously held the seat, so his vote halved and the LDs didn’t stand, while the BNP gained as elsewhere in the ward in May and the Tories put in a token appearance.
The references to ‘Wales’ is confusing, but it’s the name of a ward in Rotherham. Judging by the article and this result, Labour seems in good shape in Rotherham, but I’d guess the BNP is mopping up the protest vote if other alternatives are being ineffective (as the patchy record of contesting by LD and Con candidates suggests).
Alnwick DC Amble West LibDem gain from Ind - LibDem 237 Ind 94 Con 90 - 2003 result 2 seats Ind 277/253 LibDem 229 Lab 153
re 26. I think that you are grossly over-stating the media impact of Cameron. Many moons ago it used to be my job to write the review of the papers that goes out at 6.40am and 7.40am on the Today programme on Radio 4 and I scan all the national press with what is still, hopefully, a professional eye. The fact is that coverage of politics generally and the Tories in particular is fairly limited.
Cameron’s huge challenge is that he has no obvious enthusiastic supporter amongst the nationals. The Mail is star-struck by Gordon and is ambivalent, the Telegraph is still totally split and the Murdoch group is still backing NuLab. this leaves us with the Indy, the Guardian the Express and the Star. There is no Tory equivalent of the Daily Mirror.
The Tories are very reliant on the broadcast media which is seeing audiences for news and current affairs drop all the time.
23 Agree with everything you say
I would also like to add, If you are looking for an historical precedent, fifty years ago this month Suez. A Conservative government was humiliated by a military expedition that went badly wrong. The Prime Minister resigned, the government was in crisis, far worse than any thing today, government crashed in polls. A new leader, Harold Macmillan who had strongly supported the action, then switched, took over, eighteen months later, won a landslide victory. The poll readings for a third term government, are not particularly bad, those of us who remember the poll readings Labour was getting post devaluation late sixties, these are nothing compared with that. Of course the Tories won the 1970 election, but I think that was due peculiar factors that occurred during the actual campaign. Anyone who is basing the result of the next GE on polls being taken today, could be wide off the mark!
Nick P
I agree that Labour MPs in marginal seats should not panic but neither should they avoid a serious assesment of the situation. Increasingly it is clear that it will be difficult for Gordon Brown to win the next election for Labour, so rather than feel some misplace sense that `Gordon deserves the job’, it is time to consider other options. If MPs in marginal seats do not do that many of them will certainly be looking for a new job. I say this as someone who is a big fan of the chancellor, but who recognises that he cannot renew the Labour Party because he is tainted by the wider mistakes of the the administration and by his own crass attempts to get Tony Blair out that have created a lack of trust.
27 - oh do Mark. Anything you can find on my comments on polls is welcome.
I’m going to open a market on when you ever write anything positive about Gordon Brown! I think it might be clinical. Change the record! Despite your postings, he’s going to walk it. Anyone with a scintilla of knowledge about the Labour Party can see that, and has been able to see it for at least three years.
9 Bullseye
“I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t a Brown Bounce (though not that big & not that long)when he takes over and very surprised if the grneral perception of him in office wasn’t considerably better than the expectation.”
I disagree. The polling evidence is of Cameron pulling ahead of Brown month by month. When Brown takes over, he will attack Cameron in a way that he hasn’t been able to of late. Cameron will respond (tax&spend roadblock to reform, etc) and the policies will be announced then too, on the back of good results in May. Policy-lite strawman will not be a tag that will fit.
Add to that the fact that Brown will be forced to face Cameron every week over PMQs, and you have a recipe for disaster for GB - just witness yesterday’s petulent effort at Treasury questions when George Osborne (of all people!) riled Brown so much that he threw his papers across the dispatch box at him. Fool.
Brown has done much to avoid these set-pieces over the years, preferring to send his foot-soldiers in instead to answer for the tax credits debacle, pensions raids, etc. He would have been better honing these skills himself instead. Being a “solid” Chancellor is a million miles from leading the nation. His many character flaws will be magnified manifold in the public perception.
I sense something Shakespearean in the spectacle of Brown getting the prize he has coveted and plotted for so long, only to find he’s not up to it and the whole darn thing is tarnished anyway.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if a warring Labour party, so desperate to knife Blair this summer, finds itself begging him to about-turn and fight for a fourth term, in the absence of any electable alternative?
Either way, they look doomed.
[34] Won’t any of the Tories on here set up a Rik W fan site?
I agree with Nick Palmer MP’s implication that people will judge Gordon Brown as Prime Minister on his record as Prime Minister. That was true of all previous PMs who took over in mid-term & no one has yet made a convincing argument as to why it should be different in his case. The Tories seem to want to have it both ways - to blame him for the “pensions raid” without at the same time giving credit for the raid’s encouraging British industry to operate affordable (from industry’s POV) pension schemes and so staying competitive. (Of course, no reasonable observer would expect any opposition party’s cheerleaders to do otherwise…) Other than that, and their natural enough opposition to the size of government activity, they don’t even seem to have any criticisms of his record at No. 11…
I expect Brown to go into the next election with a clear pledge not to increase VAT & see if the Tories match it…
34 Rik W. Oh I’m sure we might find all kinds of interesting comments from you preceeding the poll in Sutton on 5th May 2005 ….. shall we bother ? … Nah ..we’ll watch some paint dry instead.
………………………………..
Another interesting caption picture from Mike as our Gawd leaves the flicks having just seen the horror movie “Honey I Shrunk The Labour Lead.”
29/30: A terrible night for the Independents - they need a new leader NOW!
33: Well…you’ll appreciate that I don’t want to get into discussion of what actually happened during the ‘coup’ (and actually I don’t have inside information). I agree that the media presentation of what happened has shaken support for GB. Some of those who feel that way are normally solid Labour, and just don’t like to hear that anyone is plotting against the current leader - I think these will vote Labour when it comes to it. More generally, what GB is actually like as PM will I think gradually become more significant in people’s judgment. I don’t think there are any other serious options, and there are risks in thrashing around as though we desperately wanted one, and then not finding one.
2 Once again a very reasonable and balanced appraisal, David. In particular, I agree that the present price looks like a ‘normal’ one in the sense that it has been artificially high for a long time (for whatever reason) and has now returned to a more realistic reflection of the fundamental political probabilities.
I agree with Mike that the price is unlikely to get any lower but as my ‘Brown betting position’ is I think rather different from his, I will probably sit tight - though I can well understand others will want to lay now.
(Originally posted at 7.00 am.)
33.”so rather than feel some misplace sense that `Gordon deserves the job’, it is time to consider other options.”
I wonder how many people support Gordon just because he has been around so long and so he deserved it. Yesterday I was thinking why I’ve always rooted for Gordon and well, the reply was basically that he wasn’t Blair and that he has wanted the job for so long, so he somehow deserves it.
And they’re pretty weak arguments in supporting someone.
42. And a -13% deficit for preferred PM looks like a strong argument for someone else.
Back to the original question Mike posed…isn’t it the case that Brown has no nails to bite, having gnawed them practically to the bone already by all accounts?
Surely the news this morning is not Labour down at 32% but the Lib Dems back on 16%.
I said the other day that the 14% poll was probably a rogue, but this tilts my view towards Lib dem support being badly squeezed at the moment; their outlying highest poll is still below their 2005 election figure and the potential for unwinding tactical votes means that they need a bigger vote share (back to late 1980’s) just to stand still.
What the impact of Gordo taking over No 10 might have will be interesting - but the portents are that it will be even worse for the yellow ‘uns than it is now.
I’d guess that there are a lot of worried Lib dem MP’s just now, especially since master tactician Ming has put them all on a war footing for an October 2007 snap election which he apparently thinks is a dead cert.
Gordon “deserves” it because of the economic record. The best qualification for PM I think there is, certainly better than Cam or Mings claim to the job.
42. Andrea. Another reason could be that he’s the most successful Chancellor since memories began and probably the most impressive politician (with the exception of Blair) since at least the 60’s
PS. I listened to an extended interview with UKIP’s Nigel Farage yesterday. He’s impressive and very energetic. Those phoning in were positively drooling at his right-wingness(!). I reckon he’s going to cause Cameron some serious damage in the next few years.
47. If that is true why does he (GB) poll so badly?
The Queen was supposerd to open Arsenals new stadium yesterday but couldn’t because she had a bad back. Someone texted in to say ‘that’s nothing West Ham have got two’!
48… Because politcs is now dominated by the celebrity media culture.
As a result a dude on a bike followed by a limo can claim green credentials if he smiles to camera enough. Unfortunately, this is perhaps what is required for a future PM. A smiley feel good face and nothing else.
Alas.
Perhaps we should launch a pb.com party?
47 - The Farage past is going to catch up with him. Expect nicely timed and placed revelations in the press in the weeks leading up to a general election.
50. Surely a pb.com party would have more internal divisions than Labour at the moment
51. What’s the naughty boy been up to?
50. Mark Senior and Rik W our own Blair and Brown
47. Roger, I’m getting pessimistic about Brown’s chances (and Labour in general).
(but I’m always pessimistic to avoid “disappointing surprises”…I always think the worse)
49 roger. You should post that one on Mrs Dale Diary !!
……………………
BTW the Beeb is reporting that the Electoral Commossion may force the Lib Dems to pay back the £2.4M donation. A final decision is expected in a few weeks.
Expect the Lib Dems to hold the worlds largest boot sale …. or should that be sandal sale !!
56. Dam if only ning had kept his jag now
47 Gordon Brown “the most successful Chancellor”?? In what category is he successful?
Hitler was probably a more successful Chancellor, right up until the end - when he wasn’t so successful.
Papering over the cracks… Robbing Peter to pay Paul… Economic smoke & mirrors… Perhaps, successful up to a point.
re 46. Being “deserving” does not seem to me to be a good qualification. It’s the ability of a new leader to win a fourth term that should be the imperative. I know that it is quite hard to face up to but I think that many within the party have grossly underestimated the part that Tony Blair has played in making Labour electable.
Are not Brown supporters a bit worried by these awful poll numbers?
The last party leader to be elected in spite of what the polls were saying was IDS for the Tories in 2001. What would the reaction be if there was no Brown bounce? What if those Cameron-Brown polls are accurate?
I might be completely wrong and I have resisted making PM Brown predictions but if I was in Nick Palmer’s shoes I’d be thinking about what I could do after 2009.
50. A dude on a bike followed by a car…
describes perfectly someone who needs to take a car but enjoys cycling.
No need. The British are a nation of moaners but they are also very conservative. They are no more likely to vote for a man in shorts cycling around Parliament Square than to vote for the chauffeur of his shoes. It’s just sound and fury signifying nothing.
Unless Brown tries to be something he’s not he will completely swamp Cameron in a way Blair never could
59. But who would poll better than him? So far Reid and Johnson don’t seem to do any better
61.”Unless Brown tries to be something he’s not ”
He has already tried and he looked silly. Same thing for Ming.
53 - Well, apart from the incredibly labyrinthine shady dealings within UKIP, views and activities (political and domestic) which are better off googled rather than repeated on here.
61 Hillarious
Crisis, what crisis?
59 Of course Labour and Brown should be concerned, but the last thing they should do is panic.
British politcs seems to be so fickle. If you had shares in a leading a top FTSE firm that needed a new chief executive and Brown, Cam or Ming were up for the top job (and none of the above was not an option). Who would you choose to protect your investment?
Surely Brown is the safe pair of hands, but the lack of new ideas is a concern. Ming is totally out of the picture. Charismatic Cameron is attractive, but surely the greatest risk to your investment.
The question at the next election will be if Cameron is worth the risk. He clearly is a risk, whatver way you look at it. Brown need a couple of new initiatives.
60 Get a Brommy, a panier and a rucksack. Otherwise use electronic docs. Get a locker at the office.
No need for a limo if you’re clever.
61 - Couldn’t agree more Roger.
GB would look ridiculous if he suddenly became a Gazza loving artic monkey’s fan. No one would buy that.
Pretty awful result for Conservatives in Blyth Valley Hartley
Lab hold Lab 413 LibDem 361 Con 285 - 2003 3 seats Lab 1319/1154/886 Con 938/664/610 LibDem 483 on low turnout .
69. It’s a good LD result in a seat that can become a future target.
“Cameron’s personal ratings have been in decline for some months in both Mori and BrandIndex.”
Well you might like to know that in today’s poll, Cameron’s personal approval rating is up from 35% thinking he is doing a good job to 42%. A net approval of +6 is up to +14, in just one month. The change has come principally from those who replied ‘don’t know’ now giving him a favourable opinion. Doesn’t sound like decline to me.
69 by Mark Senior “Pretty awful result for Conservatives in Blyth Valley Hartley”
What about the terrible polling numbers for the Lib Dems?
16%!
That would wipe out 50 Lib Dem MP’s.
I’m pretty sure that Brown will arrive full of initiatives. One of his difficulties must have been keeping them under wraps for so long.
Remember 97…. Independance for the bank of England the minimum wage and Sure start….all his and all in the first few months. He dominated the news. Labour’s lead neared 40 points.
My guess is this time he’ll have something big planned for the NHS ….. Cameron won’t be able to get out of his Saville Row cycle shorts fast enough.
72. Our the disastrous result for the liberals in Chester. losing a seat to the tories where traditionally we were third
re 61. I fear that you will be posting here in a similar fashion as Dave is being driven up the Mall.
60, That’s the funniest defence of Cameron I’ve heard in a long time. Do keep it coming!
72 It seems that real polls with real people voting show that the ICM figure of 22% is a truer indication of LibDem support than 16% .
47-Roger
‘Another reason could be that he’s the most successful Chancellor since memories began and probably the most impressive politician (with the exception of Blair) since at least the 60’s’
If that’s really the case why does every poll show GB to be a natural vote loser?
Is it just a case of an ungrateful electorate or because the New Labour brand has just become so tainted?
Well, good news for the Conservativves again. I did not see Browns performance, but then it also was not reported widely in the media. He may be a bad tempered graceless chancellor, but who cares if that is not what the public get to see?
I wonder if the media will turn on him?
Any way must take the kids out. Toodle pip (until later)
75. Yes, Roger’s posts are starting to resemble the outpourings of Comical Ali.
74 As you very well know Stuart you won the seat in May with a much bigger majority .
74 . Actually, the Lib Dem vote in Chester was up on May 2006. The Tories won this seat in May 2006 (no, your spinning that they came third is not correct) and the Tory vote was identical to the number they received in May 2006, with the Lib Dem vote up by 100 votes on May 2006.
Your idea of what is “disastrous” does not fit the stats. I’m sure the Lib Dems will be disappointed, but it was very far from disastrous.
Re 72) Why would 16% wipe out 50 Lib Dem MP’s when on 17% the Lib Dems won 42 seats in 1997 ?
83 Because you in the land of Conservative wishful thinking .
75. “I fear that you will be posting here in a similar fashion as Dave is being driven up the Mall”
If that ever happens I’ll be the one behind him on a mono cycle carrying his shoes!
78. John. I just think it’s beyond most peoples imagination to guess what a Prime Minister will be like when we only know him as chancellor. I bet in a similar hypothetical question in ‘90 John Major wouldn’t have registered at all against Kinnock.
I think there is a tendency for Tory supporters to over-estimate their ability to win back Lib Dem seats. The party targets its resources brilliantly and with a resurgent Tory party there will be even greater pressure that can be exerted on those Labour voters who remain. Just look at all the hype in 2005 around Iain Dale’s campaign in North Norfolk and he ended up miles behind.
Interesting that one of the Lib Dems who was ousted in May last year was an old-Etonian - David Rendel in Newbury. Maybe there is a lesson for us all.
Everyone has been speculating about how badly Labour might do in next May’s elections and the implications for GB. But aren’t the Lib Dems defending quite a lot of seats next May, too ?
I wonder if we should start speculating about how many the Lib Dems might lose…and how deep the losses must be to start a campaign to oust Ming. Is there a way we can bet on this?
Sorry Nich I said traditionally came third. This is a seat the liberals lost due to complacancy and then when a byelection came along could not still get enough votes to win, despite all the effort and activists driven into the seat from outside the area. It is a disastrous result you lost your lead position in 2006, you then formed a minority coalition with Labour to keep the largest party (the tories) out. a seat the liberals had made into a local powerbase had seen you into power and has now Unceremoniously dumped you from power. Maybe an indicement of what Chestonians feel of the Liberals nowadays.
19 and 20. By my reckoning, the BNP have fought 22 by-elections since May 4th, and won an average of 14.7%. That is slightly down on their average share on May 4th, but it includes many seats they’ve contested for the first time, in areas of weakness, like the South Coast. They’ve exceeded 20% five times, and 25% three times.
79. It’s not that the media has been very nice with him in recent times
I love it that Labour are in such denial over Browns lack of leadership quality.
I have always though that Labour are endearingly sentimental, they will give the leadership to Brown because he has ‘deserved it’ in the face of incontrovertible evidence that he will poll less than Blair.
Labour people on here just cannot seem to see that leadership is a very unique (and hard to define) quality which very few politicians can truly demonstrate, and which Brown in particular lacks almost completely.
It’s linked to giving people a sense that the leader has vision, yet is strong enough and determined enough to lead the troops through perils to get there without our moral flagging.
The public -we all- rally to leaders; often even when we don’t agree with their politics; and that deeply affects the polling because floating voters will congregate towards the politician who shows the greatest leadership ability.
Blair has it in spades, as did Thatcher and Churchill. Wilson, Macmillan, Kinnock, and Major had it, but less obviously. Atlee, Callaghan, Hume, Eden and Heath didn’t and neither does Campbell or Brown.
83. I believe it is remodelling of the liberal vote around the country. same as in the 80’s when Liberals got over 23% IRC and got only a few seats.
91 I meant morale of course…
87 If Labour do better than in 2003 then there will be LibDem losses . If the party shares are the same as last May then there will be roughly a 3-4% swing from Labour to Conservative from 2003 and 1% swing from LibDem to Conservative and 2% swing from Labour to LibDem and the LibDems will overall stay roughly the same .
We won’t know if Brown has leadership ability till he takes over.
Most voters give him credit (much more than he deserves IMHO) for running the economy effectively. Labour are still just about ahead on the economic competence question.
Some Lib Dem nail biting coming up….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6090688.stm
I live in an area that is held by a Labour MP. I have not seen a Laobur leaflet since I moved here. I moved from a Lib Dem seat, 4-6 leaflets a year, even when elections are not on. The difference is that Lib Dem MP’s work much harder at building up local constituency votes from people who are not Lib Dem, but like the MP.
That is why id is more difficult to oust a Lib Dem than a Labour MP. Just look at the amount of money and contral office target letter poured in to North Norfolk (where I use to live) and it had no effect. To be fair, Norman Lamb as highly regarded by virtually everyone (I know Tory Councillors who vote for him), but it serves as a good example that money and opinion polls can sometimes be of little value against a Lib Dem who has got their constituency organisation right and does the work and campaigning between elections.
86.”I think there is a tendency for Tory supporters to over-estimate their ability to win back Lib Dem seats. The party targets its resources brilliantly and with a resurgent Tory party there will be even greater pressure that can be exerted on those Labour voters who remain. ”
if you’re forced to use resources to defend seats, can this impact your chances to make more gains because your resources are busy to hold current seats?
69 M Senior Looks to me on vote share (corrected for the LibDem one figure you gave for 2003) that the LibDems have taken equally form Labour and Conservatives.
Was there a local factor or personality involved?
Taking any single local result as proof of a national opinion poll is very unsound.
31. Mike S - you say that Cameron is reliant on broadcast media for his support, rather than newspapers, and this a wobbly position to be in: as news and current affairs TV progs are suffering audience decline.
But that is also true of newspapers! (and I speak as a journo). None of the papers is influential as it was 20 years ago, most of them are objectively weaker in sales.
It does make one wonder where people are now getting their political facts and opinions - I’m sure the Net, and sites like this, are filling some of the holes. The Net is generally more radical - on right and left - than MSM so I don’t know what that augurs for our polity.
Did I just say “augurs for our polity”?
Jeepers.
85 Roger I hope you pay up on this commitment, it would be a great spectacle, great TV:
“I fear that you will be posting here in a similar fashion as Dave is being driven up the Mall”
If that ever happens I’ll be the one behind him on a mono cycle carrying his shoes!
100.”It does make one wonder where people are now getting their political facts and opinions ”
maybe they aren’t getting it at all!
101 Ino doubt those shoes would be flip-flops ( I thank-you).
91 Brown the next Attlee - I like the sound of that
86 mike S I think there is a tendency for Tory supporters to over-estimate their ability to win back Lib Dem seats.The LD) party targets its resources brilliantly
Political parties are like actors, only as good as the last performance.
The Tories used to be the kings of turnout, and that has faded. Look at Bromley.
99 Not that I know of , the local Conservatives were apparently quite hopeful as they did sneak the 3rd seat in 2003 . I think it is just more evidence that the Conservatives are not doing as well in the North as the South and Midlands .
Sean Fear at 95. Surely you don’t need to actually be a leader to demonstrate leadership qualities if you have them?
It was always clear that Blair was a natural leader, even in 1994 when he was unknown outside Westminster the buzz was clear from the start, as it was for instance, for Paddy Ashdown in his day.
I can’t think of many cases when someone who hadn’t demonstrated leadership suddenly acquired the quality when they took the reins.. in fact quite the reverse.
And if you take in the round the accumilated wisdom from the people who have worked with Brown over the years the one thing they seem to have agreed between themselves his lack of leadership - when given a choice thus far they have fallen over themselves to choose someone else.
So although its of course possible that Brown will ‘grow into the role’ I sincerely doubt that anything will change either with him, or the public perception of him, when he becomes PM.
73-Roger
‘I’m pretty sure that Brown will arrive full of initiatives. One of his difficulties must have been keeping them under wraps for so long.’
More about Britishness,that should be a real winner ?
Or perhaps his iniiative this week for more school sport,maybe he’ll reverse his cut in lottery funding for sport from 25% to 12.5%? Or perhaps buy back the 2,500 school and community playing fields that have been sold off for development since New Labour came to power?
On the other hand an iniative to end the current further education funding apartheid system that has been created by New Labour or perhaps the availabilty of new drugs for cancer patients not just being confined to Scotland might give him some credibility.
Repairing his damage to company pension schemes might also help,but probably a bit too late.
80. There are no conservative tanks on our lawn. Funnily enough, Goron Brown does go into hiding when theres a proper figjht in the offing a bit like Saddam Hussein…..
Roger buddy, in all seriousness, you are either a Tory taking the rip or you have lost all sense of reality. In order to succeeed Roger you first have to see things for hwo they are before starting to work. You haven’t even hit acceptance. I can tell though you did some of your schooling at the Goebbels Memorial Community Comprehensive…..
I agree that it is harder to oust a LD mp than the other 2 main parties.
The important issue though is the strength of their grass roots. Although the Labour party has seen its councillor base decline almost every year since late 90’s, the LDs have not grown their councillor base in that period. They have failed to capitalise on the opportunity,
The seats they have gained are invariably in Labour areas as “anti-Blair” protest votes. When Blair goes then they will face a crunch squeezed by Brown and Cameron.
107..lets see if Gordon’s push over Britishness extends to the British citizens in Northern Ireland……it had better.
Brown has massive leadership quality - no doubt about it. Just lacking in the puppy stroking feel good smiley stuff. How to fix that promote popular smiley types to the cabinet. It’s the team wot wins it.
People attack him for being weak and a contol freak and dominent and lacking the killer instinct all at the same time.
One thing is sure the Tories really don’t like him. Ergo - he must be sound.
When he pulls off a John Major style surpise victory, which he could very well do - the Tories are really going to despise him. If he did the Tories could be out of it until 2015. Oh happy day.
108.”Funnily enough, Goron Brown does go into hiding when theres a proper figjht in the offing a bit like Saddam Hussein….. ”
whilst in the tories, Maude always gets all the blame…I sometimes feel sorry for him, then I realize it’s just Maude…
Afternoon all :). Once again, partisan sniping seems all the rage today.
Re: 96 - The BBC website is quite explicit regarding the LDs involvement:
“There is no suggestion the court case has anything to do with the party.
In a statement, the Commission said it “has previously made clear its view that it was reasonable for the Liberal Democrats - based on the information available to them at the time - to regard the donations they received from 5th Avenue Partners Ltd in 2005, totalling just over £2.4m, as permissible.
“It remains the Commission’s view that the Liberal Democrats acted in good faith at that time, and the Commission is not re-opening the question of whether the party or its officers failed to carry out sufficient checks into the permissibility of the donations. “”
If we have to re-pay the donation, so be it. I imagine it will be very tough but we’ll survive and when you hear some of the accounts of the dire financial straits the LDs were in back in 1989 this is quite trivial as is the amount compared to the huge deficits run by the Conservative and Labour parties in their time.
On other issues, the ICM poll is fascinating and even more so when you study the fieldwork in detail. In September, the area called the “Midlands” (includes Wales) had the Tories on 38%, Labour on 31% and the LDs on 21% - in October the Conservatives are on 48%, Labour on 23% and the LDs on 19%.
So, in a month, there’s been a swing of 9% to the Tories. Impressive. Slightly less so when you see it’s on a sample of just 160 or so people. On THAT measure, in October, 77 supported the Tories, 37 Labour and 31 the LDs (in September the figures were 64, 52 and 36 respectively).
So, let’s have a little game. Let’s reduce the Tory lead to 10% by dropping the Tories by 5% and increasing Labour by 10% or let’s drop the Tories by 8 and increase Labour by 15 and move that into the main figures.
Suddenly, the unadjusted figures show the Conservatives at 39.5% and Labour at 31% - with a little adjustment call it 37.5% to 33% and it looks like a 4.5% Tory lead rather than 10%. My point is that incredibly small sample bases at regional level can create significant disparities in figures and cause polls to become outliers. In an ideal world, pollsters would sample not 500 or 1,000 but 10,000 or more but that doesn’t usually happen. In a volatile electorate with increasingly regional electoral disparities I believe almost all polls are susceptible to sampling or weighting issues - thus the LDs go from 14% to 22%.
I’m normally a fan of ICM but a study of the fieldwork makes me much less convinced especially when set against by-election polls at constituency level or indeed larger poll sets such as Council elections albeit on often low turnouts.
Final thought for now - has anyone looked at the Local Government White Paper in any detail ? I ask because I know it’s a highly significant document and in certain local authorities is being taken very seriously. I’ll leave the Tories on here with a thought - if you controlled BOTH the COunty and District Councils in an area, what would you do if you were a District Councillor and discovered your County colleagues were in the process of submitting a business case to DCLoG arguing that you should be abolished ?
111 - Who are these happy, smily people within the Labour party that the British public are just waiting to fall in love with?
Hazel Blears?
111 jonathan People attack him for being weak and a contol freak and dominent and lacking the killer instinct all at the same time..
This is not incompatible and is often found in bullies, something Brown has been accused of by people in the cabinet.
Yesterday’s little display where he threw papers across the Commons at George Osborne seems to be a very bad sign for future PMQs and TV interviews where the journo dogs get at him.
114. Caroline Flint
114 Ian McCartney.
115.”Yesterday’s little display where he threw papers across the Commons at George Osborne ”
I can understand him (even if it was wrong doing it). Osborne is one of the most irritating people in politics
114 John Denham (perhaps not smiley - but just v. good)
114 John McDonnell
120. I saw him smiling and laughing! For ex when Newsnight was going around the conference giving around bracelets in support of various candidates, when they met him, he found it funny…unlike some other MPs like Alan Milburn
114 - In answer to my own post the wise-cracking Dennis Skinner and popular comedian Sion Simon.
113 - “…I’ll leave the Tories on here with a thought - if you controlled BOTH the COunty and District Councils in an area, what would you do if you were a District Councillor and discovered your County colleagues were in the process of submitting a business case to DCLoG arguing that you should be abolished” ?
As one of the former I’d hope we would be doing the same for the County :).
Be honest if you were facing George Osborne wouldn’t you feel like throwing something?
121 - “I saw him smiling and laughing!”
Was he watching a re-run of the Brighton bombing at the time?
Stodge “Let’s reduce the Tory lead to 10% by dropping the Tories by 5% and increasing Labour by 10% or let’s drop the Tories by 8 and increase Labour by 15 and move that into the main figures Suddenly, the unadjusted figures show the Conservatives at 39.5% and Labour at 31% - with a little adjustment call it 37.5% to 33% and it looks like a 4.5% Tory lead rather than 10%. ….. ”
This is the most hilarious bit of desperate figure gerrymandering that I have ever seen on here, you should be in the Treasury.
113 Unfortunately stodge the subset figures for regions and age groups throw up odd figures . From the same two polls you could conclude that LibDem support in the South went up from 19% to 28% . The small sample sizes make the M of E very high .
122. Max, considering your leader is Annabel Goldie (who looks like a mix between Margharet Rutherford and Bob Marshall Andrews), I’m not sure if you’ve so much time to sort out other parties’ frontbench problems
128 - I’m trying to be helpful!
Who is Margaret Rutherford?!
129. She played Miss Marple:
http://www.nndb.com/people/052/000063860/rutherford-sm.jpg
The level of Lib Dem wishful thinking on the site today must be close to an all-time high.
129 / 130 - Also cousin of Tony Benn. The British Establishment is very incestuous!
132
Max, did you the Labour shortlist for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh?
It’s Lord Provost Lesley Hinds, constituency chairman Mike Robb, East Lothian Council leader Norman Murray and Ann Henderson, who works for Ms Deacon.
Keith Geddes failed to make it.
re 113. There’s a flaw in your analysis:- you cannot take each geographical or democratic subset in a poll and expect everyone to be politically representative. You have to take the totality of the poll.
It’s amazing how people are trying to rubbish ICM just because they are producing numbers that they don’t like. The same is going on with Mori the other way round.
One of the pieces of “good manners” about the site is that users do not usually look back through old posts to assert that people are not being consistent. Heaven knows we all evolve our views. But if you looked at the Mori polls which this year have showed on different occasions great positions for each of the three main parties you will see posters taking diametrically opposed positions to what they are saying now.
For me the question is what you would risk money on and I would put ICM ahead of Mori any day of the week.
133. Why aren’t you on Messenger?
121. Stop stealing my observations.
Interesting story on Conservative Home entitled:
“New Telegraph editor tilts newspaper towards David Cameron”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/
Yet more good news for DC.
135. It stole it from Roger!
129 The acting Margaret Rutherford? That woman knew how to ham…
137. No you didn’t - I posted about it here (I was having a go at Bryant and that Harris bloke) and told you about it, then you looked it up online and agreed with me.
I’ve just realised what that pic of Gordon at the top of this thread is. It’s not him biting his nails, he’s just halfway up on his way to a Benny Hill style salute….
I knew I’d seen it somewhere…
For those of you who don’t know. Margaret Rutherford had a political connection, she was a cousin of Anthony Wedgewood Benn that was, Tony Benn that is.
My pet theory: At the moment the public seems to be happy with the parties to be fairly balanced with the Tories having the edge and Labour under the cosh ,with no-one breaking out as the popular favorite.
When one party seems to have some postive momentum - there is a bit of negative feedback that pushes the poll back the other way. Hence the volatility. (Perhaps this is the physcist in me)
There is no doubt in my mind that Cameron has been very successful in removing the blocks to Tory support and has unlocked pent up resentment to Labour. This is the source of the Tory lead.
The question for me is whether this is a boil, once lanced, that will heal or wound that will not. And whether Cameron will resist other block and whether Brown can make people get interested in Labour again.
Talking of the Benns, it now looks very likely that Hilary Benn will stand for deputy (and perhaps even for the leadership?). Currently 10/1 for deputy with Ladbroke’s and 49/1 for leader on Betfair.
141- …Who once campaigned with a young Anthony Blair in the chesterfield byelection, who is married to Cherie Booth who is the daughter of Tony Booth the actor who ……once shared a stage with Margaret Rutherford ?
On the polls I’ve held a theory for some time that there is a loose cannon of 5% of the electorate that seems to be looking for a home. They are Left/Liberal voters who have rejected Labour since Iraq: Guardian/Independent readers. This 5% is very news concious, bad news on Iraq in particular sends them wandering. They are attracted to Cameron because of his Left/Liberal views very much in evidence at the conference, could be why he stresses the Liberal pa