politicalbetting.com

The Obama price tightens from 33/1 to 12/1

This is the cover of last week’s Time magazine which for seven days has been appearing on news-stands right across the US.

This is the cover that has propelled the young first time Senator from Illinois into a position where the pundits are saying that only he can stop Hillary Clinton from securing the Democratic nomination for the 2008 White House race.

This is the cover that prompted the questioning six days ago that led to him saying that he was considering putting himself forward.

This is the cover that caused the Slate online magazine to decalre yesterday that “The Obama Rules. In one week he has turned American politics upside down.”

This is the cover that has caused the UK betting price on Obama for next President to tighten from 33/1 to 12/1 in just six days.

This is how the Slate is describing the entrance of Obama. “Political assumptions can remain constant for long periods and then change very quickly. And so they have in the approximately 10 days since the publication of Barack Obama’s book.. In the brief time he’s been on book tour, Obama has overthrown much of the reigning conventional wisdom about what’s likely to happen in the 2008 campaign, how shrewd politicians ought to behave, and what the informal rules of the American system really are.”

But is all this just a media hype and could it all be forgotten in a month or so?

I should say that I am biased and my judgement might be being affected by the fact that I tipped and bet on Obama when he was 50/1 in May last year. I believe, however, that he offers a much more attractive proposition to the Democrats than Hillary Clinton who will for ever be a divisive figure.

We will have to wait until January 14th 2008 before Obama’s appeal is really tested. That’s the day of the Iowa state caucuses which is the first major event in the 2008 election. Here party supporters get together in big and small gatherings right across the state and talk over the chances of each potential nominee. It was Iowa in 2004 that caused Howard Dean’s campaign to come to a halt.

My view is that Barack Obama is ideally suited to the Iowa format and that this will be the launch pad for him getting the Democratic nomination. After that who knows?

Mike Smithson

Who’s going to win the battle for Number 11?

These are my thoughts on the subject from a betting perspective.

Alistair Darling: The Trade & Industry Secretary is an arch Brownite, and has for a long while been one of the favorites to be the next Chancellor. Currently available on Betfair to back at 2.5/1, or to lay from 2.75/1. Darling could conceivably be the next Chancellor, but the current prices don’t tempt me either way at present.

Ed Balls: Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and for years a close adviser to Gordon Brown. Tipped by some as a future Chancellor, but would he really come straight into the cabinet at that level? Current back price of 2.65/1 seems quite short, and I would lay at this level. Balls is also hampered by a less than fluent style of communication (though that didn’t stop Gordon). To make matters worse, the boundary commission has abolished his seat!

David Miliband: Generally regarded as one of the ‘high flyers’ of the government, the current DEFRA Secretary was traditionally viewed as a Blair supporter. Though, he now seems to have a foot in both Blair and Brown camps, and is likely to continue his rise whoever the next Labour leader is. However, the current back price of 9.5/1 on Betfair would need to drift a little before I would risk even a small amount.

Stephen Timms: Currently Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and a leading Brownite. Has lately been taking a more prominent role in Labour’s attack on Tory economic ‘policy’. A comment by Nick Palmer on this site a couple of weeks ago that Timms would be a good bet, narrowed his price from 40 to 10 in a matter of minutes. Currently available to back on Betfair at 12.5/1, which still seems good value.

Others: Alan Johnson, John Reid, and Jack Straw are all available to back between 16/1 and 33/1, however I can’t really see Gordon appointing any of them as Chancellor. But what if a Blairite (say John Hutton) was the next leader? Would he bring in another Blairite like Alan Milburn to be Chancellor? I wouldn’t touch Milburn, even at his current back price of 75/1 as I can’t see anyone other than Gordon being the next Labour leader. George Osbourne’s lay price of 75/1 looks good value if you are brave enough to lay at those kind of levels!

To conclude, Darling is a feasible candidate, but I am not tempted by his odds. Balls will probably be Chief Secretary in a Brown government, and therefore is well worth laying at current prices. Miliband could be worth a small punt if his price drifts further (but only to lay off when the price tightens). Timms at 13.5 is excellent value. He is a Brownite, and knows the Treasury well.

My money is on Timms – and I’m keeping it there.

Ian Jones

Site notice: Sean Fear’s local election report will be posted tomororw.

Hi all, we seem to bre having a few problems with the database server today (you may see mySQL error messages). I’m working to get this all fixed as soon as possible, and hopefully the site will mostly be running as normal.

Thanks,

Robert

Does more polling bad news make him less certain for leader?

The final poll of this survey rich week has seen another poor performance for Labour, more terrible figures for the Lib Dems. and the Tories consolidating a significant lead. The shares in YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph with comparisons on the last poll a month ago are CON 39% (+3): LAB 32% (-4): LD 16 (nc).

The YouGov figures reinforce the polls on Tuesday and Wednesday from Communicate Research and ICM which means that all the latest polls are reporting a very similar level of Tory support - 38%, 39% and 39%. Where the three pollsters differ is on the Labour-Lib Dem split. CR put the Ming’s party at 14%, YouGov has it at 16% while ICM reported a 22% rating.

A key question in YouGov was “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?”. The split was CON 46% - Lab 33% which is by far the biggest margin that such a forced question has seen. This is how opinion has changed when this point has been put:-

FEB 2006 CON 37: LAB 43 (LAB +6)
JUN 2006 CON 44: LAB 38 (CON +6)
AUG 2006 CON 43: LAB 36 (CON +7)
OCT 2006 CON 46: LAB 33 (CON +13)

So the position for Gordon is getting progressively worse just at a time when he needs to be convincing his party that things will be better under his leadership.

This is, of course, a forced and a false question because voters have a much wider choice and there is no mention of the Lib Dems. As Anthony Wells notes in UK Polling Report it will be interesting to see from the detailed data how Lib Dem supporters split on this issue because it might be a good pointer to tactical voting.

The worry for Brown must be of poll deficits on this scale leading to a panic and the succession not being quite the foregone conclusion that it appeared.

One factor that I have raised here before is that Brown might blow up during what must be an extraordinarily difficult period for him. His performance at Treasury questions yesterday can only be described as bad-tempered and it’s just possible that his desire for the job that he has craved after for so long might lead him to do something that could have serious ramifications.

Labour MPs in marginal constituencies are going to feel a bit uncomfortable this morning. The saving grace for Brown is the lack of a viable alternative.

Mike Smithson

Why couldn’t the Brownites cash in on the Tory tax plan cock-up?

On Sunday when I was planning the week ahead on the site I was convinced that the following days might see the moment when the Cameron band-wagon would drive to a halt.

For judging by the weekend press reports Gordon Brown’s team had been absolutely cock a hoot over the way they had derailed last week’s Tory tax commission announcement and had got David Cameron and George Osborne onto the back foot even before the official publication.

For as a result of somebody posting the report a day early on the Conservative web-site the Brownites were able to do what they are brilliant at - framing the argument between the parties as between “Labour’s investment” and “Tory cuts“. This is the line that’s worked well for them at previous General Elections and it appeared that the detail in the Tory Tax commission report provided 176 pages of red meat for the Chancellor’s attack dogs to get their teeth into.

Labour’s Tory tax/spending cuts rhetoric might still have legs - but there has been no sign in the polls since then that it is resonating with the public. In fact it is has been the other way round.

We have still got YouGov to come in this week of extraordinary polls and it could come out with anything. But even the most optimistic Brownite will not be predicting a repeat of September’s level-pegging position for the party when it was the Tories and Labour on 36% with the Lib Dems down at 16%.

The whole change in the mood about Iraq and the possibility that the UK might be withdrawing with the mission not accomplished is going to dominate the domestic agenda. Gordon Brown must be hoping that he can do a Harold Macmillan - the Tory leader who took over after the Suez debacle fifty years ago and went on to victory in 1959.

Mike Smithson

As a result of problems with Register.com we have had serious outages for most of the day. What normally happens is that the politicalbetting url takes you to Register.com which in turn points you to our server in Cambridge. For large parts of the day that has not been happening.

I’ve been like a heroin addict desperately in need of a fix especially after such a surprising poll.

The good news is that we are back. Thanks for your patience.

Mike Smithson