How many Democrats will be going to Capitol Hill?
November 4th, 2006-
Will there be a double blow for Bush in Washington?
With most pundits and polls suggesting that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the US Mid Terms on Tuesday attention is focussing on the Senate where latest polls indicate that it is getting very close.
According to Electoral-Vote.com both the Democrats and the Republicans are set to get 49 seats in the Senate with two states, Missouri and Virginia, currently tied.
The betting markets are still giving this to the Republicans - Betfair is showing a price of 0.53/1 on the Republicans hanging on although this price is easing.
There were suggestions on Newsnight last night that the Republican drive on Tuesday might be hampered by gay prostitute allegations against one of America’s leading TV evangelists, Jimmy Haggard.
The Electoral-Vote prediction for the House of Representatives is DEM 241 - REP 193 and now the best you can get on Betfair is 0.14/1 on the Democrats winning control.
All these projections are based on polling and I am very mindful of what happened two years ago in the White House Race. The exit polls had it going for Kerry and there was an enormous rush to bet on the Democrat.
On that night I had thousands of pounds on a Kerry victory but decided to play safe at about 11.45pm GMT and laid enough of my betting to cover myself when Kerry was down at 0.4/1. Throughout that campaign I had certainly allowed wishful thinking to affect my gambling. Thankfully I was able to get out unscathed.
According to ABC News this week John Kerry is said to be still affected by going to bed on that night believing that he had won and then waking up in the morning to find that he hadn’t.
The Republicans are a formidable election machine. Be careful when you bet against them.
Mid-terms Prize Competition. Paul Maggs is running a prediction competition which I’ll be publishing later today.
Mike Smithson
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Well Mike Smithson the Washington subway map really sums it up. When you get to the Smithsonian you still have three stations to go
I don’t do betting, and I wouldn’t usually do a prediction for the mid-term USA elections anyway, but there seems to be very little point in doing either while there is so much potential for (and circumstantial evidence of) widespread ballot-rigging in favour of Republicans.
3. I sympathise Mike. I went to bed that night expecting to clear £1,000 and in the end just about broke even. I’ll think hard before betting against the Republicans again.
They will almost certainly lose the House but I’ll be astonished if Senate goes too. My money stays in my wallet. However….
….Any night owls staying up for the Breeders Cup might like to know that the ptp tip of the night is Invasor in the Classic, currently available at 5-1.
3. Peter, good morning. It does look like it’s going to be very close. I initially backed the Democrats when they were 3+, but decided to take the profit yesterday following your and Martin’s comments around lunchtime on the Republican’s price having drifted. It is entirely possible that both Houses could go Democrat as presumably any last minute swing could shift all the toss-ups the same way, and as Mike mentions, there are the issues to do that. Even so, the effects of incumbancy and the Republican machine are formidable obsticles.
5. Morning David.
Yes it is likely to be close. It’s not one I’m prepared to put more than a few coppers on. I’ve got the Democrats to take the house and after first backing them for the Senate, I closed out and now have a small plus on a Republican win - all to tiny amounts though.
Enjoyed our debate on Tory policy recently and would like to take it up again sometime but it would be wildly off thread here.
5. I’d be very happy to.
I remember reading on here a little while ago a conspiricy theory that it would be announced just before the mid-terms that Bin Laden had been captured / killed. Am I the only one who finds the sentencing of Saddam tommorow convenient timing, focussing as it does on the one bit of good news in Iraq? It will play on the electronic media on Sunday, hit the press on Monday and then - what do you know? - the voters go to the polls on Tuesday. It will all happen too late for the opinion polls, but perhaps another reason to hold off the Democrats.
David Herdson @ 6 — yes, the Saddam verdict was originally due in mid-October but was postponed.
[5] Don’t worry about going O/T, Peter - I mean, this is just too good not to link to:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6114378.stm
To be filed under “left-wing bias at the Beeb”, I suppose…
6. I’m sure the verdict date has been stage-managed but I doubt if it will make much difference to the election results. It isn’t that which makes me hold off; it’s the memory of burnt fingers.
The subject I had in mind was Iraq and its implications for our international alliances. Both main parties face a dilemma. Iraq has turned out dreadfully and the war is extremely unpopular but a consistent opposition to it implies redirecting our foreign policy generally away from support of the US. However there is only one practical alternative and that is a stronger alliance with the EU and we all know how popular that is.
It’s not a problem for me since I’m a fully paid up Europhile but for the vast majority who are not, it’s a bit of a problem.
Maybe the subject for a different thread one day…?
8. IA, I saw it earlier.
Who Quentin Davies?
Although given the potential for a very violent reaction in parts of Iraq to a death sentence for Saddam, Sunday/Monday aren’t guaranteed to be good news days for Bush on Iraq.
re 8. I could not decide whether to lead on the Tory split on Iraq this morning or the mid-terms. In the end the rationale for this site is about betting and in the days leading up to a crucial vote then that must be out focus.
What the opponents of the Tories should be doing is taking whatever steps they can to encourage splits like the Quentin Davies statement. That is smart politics - not the kind that has characterised the leadership of Ming Campbell. Cameron’s Achilles heel is the Tory party itself and the Lib Dems could make matters a lot worse for him by praising Cameron when he does something that is likely to upset the mainstream of his party.
12. Short-term maybe, Mike. Longer term, the best hope for the Party is that somebody drags it, albeit kicking and screaming, into the 21st century.
My view is that DC is trying to do that and I applaud the effort.
12,13 — surely the significant thing is not what Quentin Davies said, though you have to wonder whether he listened to the debate or even reads the newspapers if he thinks inquiries during wars are unprecedented, or failed to notice Des Browne conceding a future inquiry which was pretty much what the Conservatives had wanted all along, but that he said it at all. We shall have to study the runes in the Sunday papers to see if this is one MP shooting his mouth off or the precursor of an organised coup against Cameron and all his works.
Mike S I don’t think that a rather old fashioned motormouth fest ( in terms of party discipline and style) from an old back bench buffer is a ‘Tory split’ any more than Diane Abbott sitting on that absurd sofa with Polly making nasty comments about Blair indicates a Labour split- although very entertaining it is, in truth.
Mind you the ’split story’ has served the LibDems and Nulab well in the past, but I think you need to come up with something new if it is to have any real impact.
The story in the press this morning that the new Nulab line is to be that the Tories are soft on crime is at least innovative even if it is an extreme example of Nulab using old Tory tactics. It didn’t really work for us and it won’t work for them either. Not least because it is intended to force the Tories to vote for another absurd piece of extradition legislation.
And like so many other things from this dying government it is simply alienating their base with senseless authoritarianism while sounding hollow to everyone else.
More important than a late night commons bar conversation is that CHARLES CLARKE has endorsed Gordon Brown as the next Labour leader only two months after calling him “a deluded control freak”.
We are witnessing the fastest conversion since Paul on the road to Damascus. What’s going on with the Blairites? Have they a PlanB?
I think so.
3. I an hoping that we see success today for a former President of the United States. However I won’t be putting a money down as he faces a very difficult task in todays conditions.
Good luck George Washington in the Breeders Cup Classic!
Jimmy Swaggart, Ted Haggard … these evangelicals have evocative names, don’t they?
I always thought Swaggart sounded like a mixture of loot, swagger and braggart … he had a comeuppance too, but I think it’s Ted in the news at the moment, Mike.
For what it’s worth, I’d advise caution about betting on the Democrats. I still think there is little chance of them taking control of the Senate, and that the House will be much closer than the projections on, say, Electoral-vote. Local polls in the States still tend to be pro-D for similar reasons to the history of pre-Labour polling in the UK, and in general they have not made such sophisticated adjustments.
If you look at the judgments on Real Clear Politics, for example, you will see they are still not calling even as many 15 House gains for the Democrats as better than toss-ups.
17. Much as I would like to see it, George Washington is an unlikely winner of the Breeders Cup Classic. It’s not so much his temperament as the fact he has never run on dirt before. Invasor at 5-1 looks much better value.
Some wags have suggested that if George Washington does fail tonight, he could perhaps stay on in the States to pursue a political career. With a name that, he could go far. There is evidently no bar to a horse running for President. After all, they’ve had an ass in the White House for some years now.
14 Some of us live in hope! but I fear not.
Tend to agree with others that it’s just a minor temor. I simply can’t see anyone breaking cover and risking all whilst the polls are looking so (relatively) rosy, and the future still unclear.
Powder to be kept dry for a while yet methinks !
Speaking to an American political journalist last night, mostly about the British scene, but he indicated that the GOP had all but given up on the swing voters and were concerntrating their effort of maximizing turnout. He said anger was acting as a potent force against Republicans and expected a few out of the box results including the Arizona Senate race. Hadn’t heard this one noted as a Dem gain but perhaps its the “Solihull” of these mid terms.
…………….
15 Blue2Win. Portraying the Tories as soft on crime evolved from Cameron’s “hug a hoodie” gaffe. It’s potentially very damaging for the Tories if the accussation sticks or shakes the Tories normally solid position on law and order, the more so as Labour continue to pedal the fear agenda.
20 Tory Boy. A day before Guy Fawkes night I note your conspiritorial tendencies are to the fore …… I wonder who’s on the top of your bonfire !!
19. Agreed Peter it is a big ask for George Washington to win first time up on the dirt, which is why I am unlikely to back him. But against that Aidan O’Brien describes him as the best horse he has ever trained! Some compliment.
At 8/1 I am tempted but head should rule heart here. Wonder if he will be bigger on the American tote?
18. Robert, I agree with you about Senate but the Democrats are now 8-1 ON to take the House. You think this is wrong?
What would you put the right odds at?
23. St John, ALL European horses are likely to be bigger prices in the US and are on offer from most UK bookmakers but you must ask. If you do not, you will automatically be given the industry SP.
Incidentally St John, if you want to be patriotic and back a European horse with a better chance than GW, try David Junior. His breeding suggests he is likely to adapt OK to the dirt. He’s no slouch and may represent decent ew value.
18. The key is the evangelical vote. Remember even Rove ascribes the close call in 2000, to the depressing effect George W Bush’s DRink DRive conviction had on those voters. The Foley business had already given this a knock and now this on top. I think many will sit on their hands until 2008, that’s why this time Electoral vote could be more right than you think.
16. Is Plan B to elect Brown and wait for him to lose before dumping him? It’s too late now for anyone else and that way the Blairites get away undefeated after three wins and Brown gets all the blame. Whether the Blairite camp will survive as such without Blair is a different question and one to which I’d answer ‘no’, but that’s in the future.
16/28. The plan B is that maybe they’ve realized that it’s likely that he’s going to win the leadership next time, but in recent months they’ve done their best to weaken him in the hopes to defeat him in the leadership race. Maybe now they’ve realized that they won’t succeed, but they’ve already done enough damages which will benefit the tories more than them.
26 Peter. You abbreviating George Washington to GW connects onwards to George Dubya. Oh dear! George Dubya certainly acts well on the dirt!
[12] Of course you made the right call for to-day’s topic, as the fact that all our political parties are falling apart at the seams doesn’t immediately translate itself in betting opportunities.
A Democratic congress may well, as others have pointed out, help the GOP in two years’ time…
30. LOL!
I just backed Hurricane Run with Paddy Power. They confirmed that you must specify US Tote prices if that’s what you want. It would be crazy to do otherwise with European horses.
Labour has selected their new Blaenau Gwent candidate for the Assembly Election: it’s union activist Keren Bender
Plaid Cymru had a makeover to their website:
http://www.plaidcymru.org/content.php?lID=1
Mike, your comment on the electoral-vote prediction is a day out of date - today’s polling makes it 51-49 to the Dems, with Missouri and Virginia now in the Dem camp (just!)
Robert refers to realclearpolitics as a counterweight, but RCP is far more partisan to the Republicans than e-v is to the Democrats. The true picture is somewhere between the two, I’d say, but probably closer to e-v than RCP.
22 You’ve won harder ‘five pounds’ I’m sure !!
Remember, Remember the 6th of December
Groan…..
8. Still trying to work how asking for an enquiry into Labour’s management of the war in Iraq would be seen as changing our minds about supporting the initial aims. What was interesting was Diane Abbot saying, how surprised she and other’s were at how organised the conservatives were in the vote. She said that had rebel’s realised just how big the tory vote would be then there might have been a closer result.
21.”Portraying the Tories as soft on crime” JackW, Labour may be attempting this strategy but I think it is risky. People are not happy with the results of Labour’s endeavours to be tough on crime, running out of prison places and the levels of prisoner’s released early to re offend.
34. Price is pretty stable, James D. If what you say is right I would expect a bit of a run on the Democrats.
Trading is light however. Maybe the US embargo on betting sites is having an impact.
Firstly, I won’t bet on US elections because too many places use electronic voting systems with no paper trail and which can easily be fixed. What other event would you bet on where the result can’t be post-verified?
Secondly, has there been any correction in polling methodology since the last election or are the firms sticking to their guns and saying that they called it right?
[38] Ukpaul says I won’t bet on US elections because too many places use electronic voting systems with no paper trail and which can easily be fixed. What other event would you bet on where the result can’t be post-verified?
Presumably he didn’t bet on the London Mayoralty/Assembly election and won’t be betting on the Scottish PR locals, either.
UK Paul,
Surely if you really believe that the Elections have the potential to be fixed (against your interests I presume)it makes sense to back the outsiders (getting a generous price for doing so)and gain an emotional hedge to boot ?
Can only surmise that you don’t believe what you’ve written but don’t really fancy backing the Democrats at such short prices?
(A position I agree with !)
39 - I didn’t and won’t. I don’t know the background but are they using electronic touch screens with no paper trail? If so I won’t bother, if there’s a verifiable paper trail then I’d consider it. If any system in this country is going the American way it will be the death knell for electoral trust, can anyone allay my fears? Whenever someone suggests things such as text or phone voting my hackles are similarly raised.
I used to put a few quid on things such as Big Brother until I realised that there was no way that I could be sure that I wasn’t being conned. No longer.
40 - I won’t bet on it firstly for reasons of trust and secondly on moral grounds. I also believe absolutely in what I wrote, any system which is totally electronic or which leaves no paper trail is an affront to democracy.
It could benefit either party but that isn’t the point, it’s the whole system that is dodgy (witness the republicans being scared that a Venezuelan firm is tied up with some machines for example). When an election campaign is concerned with who owns and programmes a machine you have a sick system.
24, Peter. It’s not quite the same thing, but if I saw 5 to 1 against the Republicans holding the House I’d be inclined to take it (if it was a bet I could easily get on) or even possibly 4 to 1.
34, James, but another difference between the two is that Electoral-vote simply bases its projections for the House on the one latest poll in a district - they have themselves said that they would have modified their programme if they had known there would be so many House polls and will do so for 2008. RealClear bases its projections on (rightly) cautious braoder experience of the strength of incumbents as well as polling.
If we took RealClear’s 12 likely D gains plus half the 18 toss ups = 21 D gains, versus the current Electoral-vote’s number - is it 38? - let’s just see which ends up closer.
36 ChrisD. I’m not too sure there is a down side to this for NuLab. At worst it’ll come out as the Tories are as bad as we are and want you to “hug a hoodie” too !!
As a policy this Cameron strategy is worthy but in raw political terms it’s a gift to Labour and Cameron’s enemies in the media.
43. Comment on 27.
43. At 5-1 I would have a few quid too but I doubt you will find a bookmaker that generous, Robert!
43, Robert: No, that’s out of date - in 2004 they only used one poll, now they use the most recent poll PLUS all others taken within a week of it (see the Polling FAQ page on the site), because that was deemed the best algorithm of the three tried in 04.
You can see on the Senate map that, for example, there are four pols used in VA. The caveat is that often this is reduced down to one poll because partisan-sponsored polls (from both sides!) are ignored, and because in the House there are fewer district-specific polls to use in any case.
I agree with ukpaul about the voting machines. There have been some bizarre irregularities in the past. No election is immune to a little bit of vote tampering, but I still feel that the good old, tried-and-tested cross on a piece of paper is the most secure system we have. We dispose of it in the UK at our peril.
I’m still being very wary of the US election. Everything seems to be aligning for a Democratic sweep, at least of the House, but we all know that the GOP election strategy is one of the best around and I’m sure several tossups will go their way, despite the polls being against them. They are incredibly likely to lose the House, but the margin of their loss (in my eyes) isn’t going to be as huge as predicted. I still think they’ll retain the Senate, though it might only be by a couple of seats, or by the Vice President’s casting vote.
39, 41 the London and Scottish elections use electronic counting, not electronic voting, so there is a verifiable paper trail.
Interesting thread so far.
I am not sure how the Saddam sentence will play in the US elections. I suspect there will be more “activity” in Iraq as a result so on balence I suspect it may make it harder rather than easier for the republicans.
On the Quentin who split all I have to say is Who? Is anyone going to notice?
I also think Quentin is wrong as we have had inquieries in times of war before.
It will be interesting to see if Labour are going to try to hard outflank us on the right of the law and order debate. That may well play well for a while with your average BNP voter but is going to go down like a lead balloon with the Guardianistas.
Long term I also suspect that Camerons team have a strategy to deal with it as it should have been obvious that it was comming.
Lastly its been mighty quiet on my blog today
49 - In which case the bookies may well get my money.
( or 
as the case may be….)
[49] My bad… I blame that pesky return key
47, James. No, I don’t think I am wrong or out of date.
Either yesterday or the day before there was a piece within the House section saying exactly what I have reported. They use a weighted selection of polls for the Senate, and that’s what the FAQ refers to - note there is a reference to the interactive map (there isn’t a map of House races). The editorial comment said they wished they had modifed the algorithm for the House too, but now can’t before 2008.
That’s why there was a huge leap in the House projections earlier this week when a single organisation produced 40 House polls at once.
39. There is a paper trail in these elections.
Re. Arizona - I was just thinking yesterday this could be the shocker of the night; the latest poll has Kyl’s lead down to 5%.
Expect turnout to be up - many states reporting much more early voting than four years ago. In Tennessee it is up by 50%; it’s not clear if this is to the benefit of either candidate, but I can only speculate that there is probably more reason for black/Democratic voters to be fired up this time round than the GOP. I suspect the Tennessee result might actually be a lot closer than the polls have been suggesting recently when it has looked as if Corker was opening up a big lead, although I still don’t think Ford will actually win it.
I think I also heard yesterday on the radio that it was unprecedented that the House switched control and the Senate was controlled by a different party; just something to bear in mind, which ever way you want to interpret it.
18. Robert, I think you are being overly cautious. RCP has 12 likely gains for the Democrats and 15 toss-ups. Of the 12 ‘Likely Democrat’ gains on RCP, 8 or 9 of them are cast-iron certainties, and the other 3 or 4 are highly probably, which only leaves the Democrats only needing to pick up 3 of the 15 ‘tossups’ to win control.
Even this current Democratic leadership should be able to manage that feat…
P.S. Mike, what on earth were you doing in New Carrollton?
Mike If you get this can you email me. I have lost several posts over the last few days and I wonder if you have any idea what I could be doing wrong. Thanks
50. All leave in the Iraqi army (or the “Iraqi army”) has been cancelled pending the Saddam verdict, so obviously they’re expecting trouble. If US viewers see even more carnage than usual on their television screens on Tuesday morning, I can’t see it helping the GOP
ALSO. Be very careful about using hyphens particularly before or after anything that is financial or sex related.
I am also blocking on the basis of the first six digits on IP addresses and if you cannot post from a specific compute then drop me an email
57,59 — with all those sex-related words blocked, how can we properly comment on the US mid-terms?
re 55. New Carrollton is at the end of that line. I think the picture was taken at the Metro Center station.
I was getting sick of the standard Washington DC pix so I thought that this would make a change - particularly as the line goes to the Smithson family museum!
60 -
44&50. On the Labour strategy to portray the tories as soft, isn’t this what they have been trying to do with terror and crime for a few years now?
We have had the rhetoric, initiatives and new legislation (this government loves passing laws on crime and terror). The reason I don’t think it will work is because the issue now with the electorate seems to be the competence of this government and its inability to provide results.
We actually had the present Home Secretary admit that the Home Office was not fit for purpose, that might have been a vote winning strategy in 97′ but it does not look good for them in 2006 after 10 years of government. With the amount of bad news coming out of the Home Office I would be wary of trying to “out tough” the opposition, they might be inclined to challenge Labour on their record.
Re 58 kevin_m My point precisely. Either the army do well and keep a lid on things which would be good for the Republicans or they don’t which could be very bad.
It is out of the control of the USA and also to some extent the Iraqi government as well. Could go either way.
ChrisD @ 63 — it is very odd, like the joke about the world’s best golfer being Black, and the best rapper White. Labour wants to fight on law’n'order while the Conservatives campaign as defenders of the NHS.
65. I must admit that I did notice that the last few weeks.
54, Chrisco, if you notice I said to Peter the Punter that I would want at least 4 to 1 against the R holding the House and maybe 5 to 1 - I’m not ‘predicting’ they will hold both chambers, rather to be cautious about these 45 or so majority projections. I said to James I thought it would be nearer D maj 6 than D maj 46. That means less than 21.
In the past, I have done well predicting US elections by mentally knocking 5% of any D poll lead in state or, even more, district contests.
The problem with these, especially district races in the House, is that they are very difficult to poll. I almost certainly did more individual constituency polls in the UK than anyone in the 1980s, and even with my alleged knowledge of constituencies, did very badly.
For a start, it is much harder to frame a poll to be representative, as we know less about the demographic pattern of voters in local areas than nationally. This is much more of a problem than the small sample sizes (my well worn point about the ‘margin of error’ being a fallacy), and D voters are both easier to find and more likely to respond. It is hard to acount for differential turnout and past voting is not so clear to identify. Finally, have voters been asked about the party or the names of the cndidates, subject to a very big split ticket gap in the USA. There may be a consistent over-estimate of the D vote. I’d still be surprised if more than ten incumbents are defeated on Tuesday. The Democrats may well gain the House - they may gain the Senate, but I’d make that over 5 to 1 against - but I’m not expecting 35 or 40 House gains.
16 Bluetooth, ” CHARLES CLARKE has endorsed Gordon Brown as the next Labour leader only two months after calling him “a deluded control freak”.
Well of course, were this true, it would be the perfect seamless succession, but the idea (sic) comes from Clarke, the man who wasted millions of pounds faffing round with a pointless police restructuring which has never happened while the prisons were heading for ‘overflow’, illegal immigration was completely out of control and the Home Office was responsing by penalising decent visa-seekers etc etc.
So, as things stand the only delusionist ‘in the frame’ is the deluded narcissist Chamereon.
68 Err, what?
67 Robert, you are quite right to be wary of the ‘power’ of incumbents in the US at all levels, and the same thing is happening over here.
Twenty or so crooked MPs spend thousands of pounds each year on ‘against the rules’ (note; ‘agaist rules’, not ‘unlawful’, gracious me these are ‘honourable (sic) Members!!!) mass mailing of their constituents every year, so what do they do? Slap another ten grand a year on the budgets of MPs for ‘communications’ (sic and sicker). Just about the only move all year on anything to get support from incumbents of all Parties, and not surprising. Surely the power to determine their own state-funded propaganda budgets is the last thing which anyone should allow MPs?
69 To ‘er’ is human, and some Tories have been known to do it, too.
Like Robert Waller I’m sceptical that the Dems are going to quite as well as most people expect, but there are some odd polls in apparently safe seats popping up which suggest that the House results aren’t going to get anything like a uniform swing. So the Dems will probably get a majority there one way or another, though 8-1 on sounds excessive. I still think the Senate will elude them this year, though it could well fall in 2008.
Quentin Davies is by no means an antediluvian head-banger. But something he is that Cameron is not is (IIRC) a Europhile - I don’t know if that’s an underlying alienating factor. On the inquiry issue he’s speaking for quite a few Tory MPs, as I reported on the day (if all Tories had voted we’d have been in trouble). They found the party’s position opportunist and illogical - “vote for this Nationalist proposal that we disagree with, because it might make the Government do something else”. It swung quite a few usual Labour rebels too - the whips asked if they really wanted to support this maneouvre, and on the whole they thought not.
For those of you celebrating Cameron’s sturdy independence of the Sun yesterday, note that he’s written to them today anxiously trying to win back lost ground. In the real world I don’t think either major party can be entirely indifferent to two major national papers.
Robert W - I respect your wise words of caution. But as far as I can see all the evidence is pointing the same way. The national polls suggest a swing of 5 or more percent since 2004 - that’s comparing polls with polls not polls with the result. There were two big sets of House polls this week which showed the same thing. Plus others. Not sure if you saw my post about multiple polls this week for close Senate races - unbelievably similar figures. The pollsters are going to be right or wrong collectively. Surely some of the better ones like Rasmussen do something about biases?
Finally, if you’d have taken 5% off the Dem state figures in 2004 you’d surely have got more states wrong than Electoral Vote (NH, WI without even looking-up others).
I agree with you that GOP may well get Missouri and Virginia and the Senate. But I wouldn’t back them for the House at 10-1 let alone 5. btw you can get much better than this on Betfair.
I see Stan James are now offering 2.2 on GOP retaining Virginia Senate seat. Some of you sceptical about the Dem tide should be biting their hand off. At the same time, they have tightened their price on GOP holding Senate from a generous 1.4 to 1.33. Still fairly generous given GOP only need 50 to win this market (I checked the rules with Stan James).
72 “Quentin Davies is by no means an antediluvian head-banger.” perhaps not, Nick, but as I recall it he is a convicted abuser of sheep (besides being my late mother’s MP). Perhaps that’s why he’s got such a dim view of the sheep who followed Chamereonthrough the lobbies on this one?
72. “On the inquiry issue he’s speaking for quite a few Tory MPs, as I reported on the day (if all Tories had voted we’d have been in trouble). They found the party’s position opportunist and illogical” Nick, Diane Abbott seemed very surprised at such a large show conservative unity in the vote. With this governments majority it should not have mattered whether all tories voted or not.
As for the the opposition being “opportunistic or illogical” to want an enquiry into the management of the Iraq war, that is laughable considering your own governments reasons for wishing to avoid such an independent enquiry any time soon.
I am sorry but I hate the term “opportunistic” being used as an accusation towards an opposition political party. That is like saying that they should not oppose.
61. That’s definitely not Metro Center, which is underground. The way the signs work it is at one end of the line or the other, so it is either Vienna or New Carrollton.
67. Ok, absolutely. Talk of a Democratic majority of 40 is pie in the sky - my own prediction was around 10. (Although early voting has been very brisk in places like Tennessee, Florida, and Arizona. Perhaps the pollsters have fallen short on who actually is a ‘likely voter’).
Still, 5-1 still couldn’t tempt me.
It really is remarkable, as Tim Montgomerie says on ConservativeHome today, that a party in government that has managed to lose over 1,000 foreign prisoners has the neck to try and spin a yarn like the nonsense on crime that is being mooted today. John Reid and Nick Palmer should be aware that there is no shortage of ammunition for counter-attack should they choose to pursue this fallacious line.
As for Quentin Davies, he is a Europhile MP who resents Cameron’s position on the EPP and supported Davis for the leadership. I don’t think he has yet managed to reconcile himself to Cameron’s victory. His comments, whilst perhaps containing a grain of truth, should be seen in that light.
78 - a grain? More like a whole beach!
Shame the Welsh couldn’t do the double on the Aussies after the League Lions’ triumph this morning.
79 - I’ll take your word for it. Is that why Lib Dems are so partial to sandals?
80 - I tend to take mine off when I’m on the sand
Sandals, are they? They always seem the best dressed on TV these days, no tie Conservatives in the 60;s look distinctly tatty.
Think that policy will be another for the chop soon.
80 Tabman. How Alastair manages in his Jimmy Choo high heels in the sand pit of the Beaconsfield Lido is a utter mystery to the western world !!
82 - They do, do they? I must admit that Ming always dresses very admirably, but I’ve always thought that was due to Elspeth setting out his clothes the night before.
83 - Jimmy who?
“Jimmy who?”
I assume you don’t have any 20-something daughters / girlfriends.
Just saw this on the BBC website, Peter Hain says that “”everyone”, including Mr Brown himself, would “prefer a contest to a coronation”.” I do think that is a wonderful bit of an political spin.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6112640.stm
84 No Alastair, its Jimmy Choo not Jimmy Who ?
http://www.bcrfcure.org/images/part_jimmychoo_product.jpg
85 Julian H. More like grandchildren and mistresses !!
87. Between Seant and Tyson discussing their political fantasies ,and now trying to picture a Beaconsfield tory gent wearing pink Jimmy choo I think that political news must be slow this weekend.
85 - Close, Julian. My youngest daughter is 31 and my eldest granddaughter turned 20 in August. Don’t bother asking - neither are available!!
87 - I’m afraid I can’t do heels very well, Jack….
86. I’ve just read the link to BBC news at 86. Final sentence states David Miliband is a possible contender for the Labour deputy leadership but has not so far commented on his intentions. I thought he had ruled himself out from both the leader and deputy leader contests.
Can anyone clarify?
89 - It is rather disconcerting, isn’t it? Aside from the garish colour, they don’t seem terribly practical, do they?
73, Martin. You may well be right about my over-caution re the last Presidential election (much easier to predict through polls, by the way) - but I always had the correct winner!
I do think there may be some wishful thinking going on. Those who are wholly swallowing poll trends haven’t mentioned the closing gap in the other direction in Maryland, for example. I don’t buy that either, by the way. Just as with Ford in Tennessee, black candidates are almost always overestimated in polling - remember Douglas Wilder and Harvey Gantt? Nor is the New Jersey contest a shoo-in, though Menendez may just hold on.
89 ChrisD. Ah well we can all sit back now and watch Alastair and Baroness Thatcher put on a show in Strictly Come Dancing …… all those sequins and yards of squirling lace …… and I wonder what Mrs T will wear !! ….. never thought she’d take to dancing …. “Alastair U turn if you want to, the lady’s not for turning !!”
Nick Palmer as I reported on the day (if all Tories had voted we’d have been in trouble). Your arithmetic is troubling you again I see.
Re 72 Nick Palmer I hear what you are saying about the Murdoch press but we do need to rid this country oh his influence. The idea that any of our politicians HAVE to go and see him is an insult to democracy.
New thread - the Mid Terms Prediction Competition
The BBC is beginning to look a little biased as they continue to headline their web politics section with ‘the Quentin Davies nonsense (can anyone confirm he was in the Commons bar when he said this?)
Other political news is slow I know but the potential conflict of interest with the Attorney general being determined to intervene in the decision to prosecute or not in the Price is Right for a Labour Peerage scandal seems rather more important. Or Hain on the leadership? Or Green taxes?
Are they, too, desperate for a ‘Tory splits’ fantasy?
94. Never mind twirling or turning Jack, who would lead? Would Alastair try and out handbag Mrs T?
99 - I would never be so impertinent! I know my place…
100. When I was younger I thought Mrs T’s handbag was just an innocent accessory, but IIRC one of her minister’s did say she was known to throw it at the odd colleague. Anyone know if that is a true story?
I wonder if any sane person of any party could argue with this approach to youth crime:
justice means setting boundaries.
If you step over those boundaries you should suffer painful consequences.
That’s the primary job of the youth justice system, to police the territory beyond the pale.
This needs to be done with consistency, speed and rigour.
But I also said that to build a safe and civilised society for the long-term, we have to look at what goes on inside the boundaries, within the pale.
We have to show a lot more love.
By that I don’t mean sentimental, childish love which sees no wrong in anyone.
I mean tough love - love that values people, and therefore demands high standards from them.
Love that respects people - and so expects a lot from them.
And that’s the job of society.
My feeling is that we’re not doing either of these things right.
Our youth justice system isn’t working properly at punishing and deterring crime.
And our society isn’t giving enough support to young people to stop them becoming criminals.
Blue2Win @ 102 — the sentiment is fine but it is a bit long for a greetings card. Tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime — the same sentiment boiled down to a slogan.
And that is the trouble with a lot of politics today. We have slogans rather than policies.
John L It is not the same sentiment. the left-wingers see Tories as hangers and floggers and wanted to trump it, so tough became the watchword.
But what does tough mean? Letting out foreign criminals to offend again? Locking people up as terrorists without trial? ASBO as badges of honour for kids? Cameras everywhere? A new criminal bill every year?
No, tough is just a macho word and is fairly meaningless. Unlike ‘prison works’ or personal responsibility is essential.
Dave has a good and sensible line here. Nulab have extended the frontiers of the state to such a degree that personal responsibility is fading.
Dave believes, rightly, that society used to have more influence on kids and their parents. The state cannot make the difference that socialist believe (and sever socilaist states have demonstrated).
When I was a kid I would listen if talked to by an adult. I might not have agreed or liked what I heard, but I listened. Now if you talk to a kid on the street you get abuse or you are told that he or she knows ‘my rights’ and as likely as not some ’social worker’ will tick you off for having the temerity to do something about the little charmer’s antisocial behaviour.
In extreme cases the adult has ended up dead.
This trend must change and ‘tough love’ was a route that a very successful 1970’s experimental school took. (Sorry, I can’t find the details at the moment).
Recent attempts to do the same are described at
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/angela_neustatter/2006/05/post_73.html
“justice means setting boundaries.
If you step over those boundaries you should suffer painful consequences.”
. . . unless your name is Shirley Porter……Asil Nadir…..Peter Manadelson. . .
Electoral-Vote.com has moved to 51D 49R (from 49D 49D 2 tied).
John L these Guardian articles are quite interesting too.
http://education.guardian.co.uk/classroomviolence/story/0,,1599624,00.html
http://education.guardian.co.uk/classroomviolence/story/0,,1510648,00.html
Blue2Win @ 104,107 — I quite agree that the government has failed, and one reason it has failed is that toc,totcoc is a slogan not a policy. I suspect New Labour is based on The West Wing, where ideology-free policy is conjured out of the air by bright, young so-called policy wonks. In the bad old days, policies went before Cabinet or even Conference. The result is act after act, initiative after initiative, and full jails. We have more cctv cameras than anywhere else in the world, and yet it is not safe to walk down the road (I nearly said “walk the streets”). Never mind, ID cards will fix it. Or is it a comprehensive DNA database? I forget now.
But I do not see even a glimmering of a policy in post 102. It really is toc,totcoc at greater length.
Will there be any BBC coverage of the American mid term elections during the night?
I think that this site will have live coverage:
http://www.thepeoplechoose.org/
Blue2win, Thanks for the articles and undeed the quote from Our Dave.
This government appears to be presiding over a severe drop in standards of behaviour in school.
111 I though you were tories. Do you really believe the govt has that much influence?
Re 112, The government pays for education. It is up to them to ensure there are some standards. We are after all the party that introduced universal education and indeed expanded the university system in the late 50’s early 60’s.
Failure in school fills prisons.
113 All seems a bit like the nanny state to me
102 - I agree completely with Cameron. Do you also agree with this:
Being a responsible politician means setting boundaries for your own behavior.
If you step over those boundaries you should suffer painful consequences.
That’s the primary job of the voter, to hold those politicians beyond the pale.
This needs to be done with consistency, speed and rigour.
But I also said that to build a safe and civilised society for the long-term, we have to look at what goes on inside the boundaries, within the pale.
We have to show less tolerance.
By that I don’t mean sentimental, childish intolerance which sees no right in anyone.
I mean a level of tolerance that values decent public servants, but not hypocrites and liars and therefore we should demand high standards from them.
Tolerance that respects people - and so expects a lot from them.
And that’s the job of a democratic society.
My feeling is that we’re not doing either of these things right.
Our voting system isn’t working properly at punishing and deterring the sleazy war criminals and liars that are wrecking our nation.
And our society is giving too much support to bent politicians to allow them to become criminals.
Re 114, What making schools work and looking to find out and deal with why people comit crime seems like the nanny state?
Umm….
Mystic Moon, we’re all fairly into politics here, you and b2w (whether that’s one or two of you) don’t need to read speeches into the record like Congressmen. If we want to read the thoughts of DC or TB or anyone else we kind of know where to find them.
Thank you Nick. I didn’t know that you knew much about politics. Please tell me where I can go to read the truth about the reasons for going to war?
Is this it here: last report?
http://www.newamericancentury.org/publicationsreports.htm
A plan for world domination including removing Saddam for oil and military dominance drawn up by fascist far right neocons with whom your policies are aligned.
Nick Palmer We read your spinathons and comment after cogitation. Can you not comment on the substance of what Cameron said rather the current deeply meaningful response from Nulab: ‘Love a Lout’ and the ‘Tories are soft on crime’?
I gave but a very small snippet as is site etiquette, but you might like to read the whole Cameron speech, and then you could do a proper critique and response.
119 - Did you see the glowing review that Nick received from Quentin Letts in the Daily Mail this week?
120 No, I didn’t. Did it advance his career in the Nulab Titanic?
121 - I shall let you judge that for yourself, Clive:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/columnists/columnists.html?in_article_id=413822&in_page_id=1772&in_author_id=228
122 Oooohhh dear, no wonder Nick is a bit testy at the end of a grueling week.
Let us all give a prayer this Sunday, even the honourable atheists among us, that the Republicans will get a big hard booting at the polls, so these neo-con war-mongers can be brought to book and the healing process between America and those that hate Bush can begin.
123 - Quite.
Why were numbers 39 and 40 criticising number 38, but ignoring me for making the same point at number 2? Bah humbug.
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