The US Mid-Terms Prize Prediction Competition
November 4th, 2006
-
Can you predict who will control the House and Senate after Tuesday?
House of Representatives (total seats 435). Predict the number of seats won by:
Democrats
Republicans
Others
Senate (total seats 100)Predict the number of seats held after the election by:
Democrats
Republicans
Others
Tie-Breaker What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places.
Scoring Your score in each case will be the absolute difference between your prediction and the actual result, and your scores for all the predictions are added up. The player with the lowest overall score wins. Thus if you predict the Democrats to win 240 House seats and they win 226, you score 14, if you think the Republicans will finish with 49 Senate seats and they actually have 52, you score 3, and so on.
The tie-breaker will be scored in the same way (difference between prediction and result). Whether you are over or under in your predictions does not affect the scoring. Note that elected candidates’ party affiliations are determined by their designation on the ballot, not which party bloc they vote with in Congress.
Only entries posted before 2359 GMT on Monday will count.
Paul Maggs
A note about the prize from Mike Smithson. Thanks to Paul for once again organising a prediction competition. The prize for the wining entry will be a copy of my book on politics and betting which has been commissioned by Harriman House - the publisher which has just taken over the Politicos bookstore. This is due to be published during 2007.
MessageSpace Advertising
House of Representatives:
GOP: 206
Dem: 229
Ind: 0
Senate:
GOP: 50
Dem: 48
Ind: 2 (Sanders and Lieberman - both of whom will caucus with the Democrats)
Oops - Forgot the tie-breaker. Lieberman to receive 53% of the vote.
My prediction
House
GOP 213
DEM 222
IND 0
Senate
GOP 50
DEM 49
IND 1
Leiberman gets 47.6% of the vote
AHM I’m pretty sure Sanders is standing as the official democratic candidate this time. He was, it’s true, an independent socialist house member but the Dems didn’t think they had a chance against him in the race for sarbanes seat and a deal was done; however I stand to be corrected if someone’s got definite information.
House: Dems 236, Reps 199
Senate: Reps 50, Dems 48, Inds 2
Lieberman: Uh, who cares?
He won months ago, when Republicans shifted their votes to him. The actual result is a lottery - say 48.76285%, approximately.
Sanders is down on the Democratic Party website as the official democrat candidate for the Senate seat in Vermont
House
Dems 237
Rep 198
Senate
Dems 49
Rep 49
Ind 2
CT vote for JL 43.55%
4 - Sarbanes is the retiring Senator from Maryland, Blue Moon. Jeffords is the retiring VT Senator. I may be mistaken, but I think Sanders is standing as an Independent candidate with official Democratic backing.
Just read no 6
House
Dems 237
Rep 198
Senate
Dems 50
Rep 49
Ind 1
CT vote for JL 43.55%
House:
Republicans 188
Democrats 246
others 1
Senate:
Republicans 47
Democrats 51
others 2
Lieberman 49.06%
Sanders won the Democratic primary to knock out challengers on the left, but then refused their nomination. Cunning trick
The Dems have still endorsed him though, since they’ve essentially got no choice.
9 - oh ye of little faith!
House
Dems 246
Reps 189
Senate
Dems 52
Reps 46
Ind 2
Lieberman - 51.97%
AHM .You’re quite right and my apologies. I’ve checked Sanders’ website. I’m also embarrassed by the mistake about Sarbanes. The Democratic Party website is, in the circumstances, economic with the actualite!
House
Dem 239
Rep 196
Senate
Dem 48
Rep 50
Ind 2 (Lieberman and Sanders)
Addendum - Lieberman 50.15%
14 -That is quite alright, Blue Moon. I trawled round the net a bit myself and had difficulty finding something that set it all out explicitly. Sanders’ own campaign website is no help; containing no references either way that I could find.
House
Democratic: 241
Republican: 194
Senate
Democratic: 49
Republican: 49
Others: 2
Lieberman: 47.32% (to 41.01% and 11.67%)
Sanders won the Dem nomination but refused it, so no Dem will appear on the ballot in VT.
AHM in his’why vote for bernie column’ he says that if he wins he’ll be the first lifelong independent ever elected to the US Senate. That seems pretty conclusive. I notice there’s no reference to the democratic party anywhere on his website despite Howard Dean’s effusive support for him and his listing as their candidate!
Why has Sandes refused the nomination? Seems bizarre, Vermont is about as Blue as it gets.
House
R 197
D 238
Senate
D 49
R 49
I 2 (Sanders/Lieberman)
Leiberman share of vote 44.48%
12
never believe what you read!
House
R 205
D 230
Senate
D 47
R 51
I 2
Lieberman 50.50
House
Democrat 229
Republican 206
Senate
Democrat 49
Republican 49
others 2
Lieberman 56.32%
House
D 228
R 207
Senate
D 48
R 50
I 2 (Sanders and Lieberman who will both caucus with the Democrats)
Lieberman share of vote 47.31%
22 - Not to worry my dear, I see Edmund has made up for you at 21…
20 Vermont is NOT as blue as it gets. Vermont is best described as *eccentric”.
House
D 232
R 203
Senate
R 49
D 49
Others 2
Liberman 50.36%
House:
Republicans 175
Democrats 260
others 0
Senate:
Republicans 48
Democrats 50
others 2 (Sanders & Lieberman)
Lieberman 46.45 %
House
Rep 200
Dem 235
Senate
Rep 49
Dem 49
Ind 2
Lieberman will cream it. 55%
House
D 223
R 212
Senate
R 51
D 47
Others 2
Liberman 58%
26 - he is enjoying my discomfort.
House
D 219
R 216
Senate
R 52
D 46
Others 2
Lieberman 54.3%
House:
D 230
R 205
senate:
R
House:
D 230
R 205
senate:
R: 50
D: 49
I: 1
Liberman: 48.4%
Marcia I’m mortified that my mistake could have cost you the prize. I think in fairness you should be allowed to correct your entry. Interestingly Betfair are running a ‘most seats’ book for the Senate. Punters would be well advised to check their interpretation of Sanders’ candidacy. If both Lieberman and Sanders are counted as Independents then on my arithmetic the Democrats would need 6 net gains ( including the loss to Lieberman), not, 5, to overtake the GOP as the Party with most seats. The Democrats have 44 seats at the moment and the GOP 55. Does Sanders count as a Democratic gain from Independent since he’s backed by the Dems or not? I can’t imagine that they could count Lieberman as a Dem hold since he’s standing against a Democrat candidate. If the answer is no to these questions, absent a pretty long shot win against Jon Kyl in Arizona they are very unlikely to have more seats than the GOP. Obviously Betfair can define the book anyway they like but I’d want it stated very clearly before I put my money down.
House
Democrats 229
Republicans 206
Senate
Democrats 49
Republicans 49
Ind 2
Lieberman 53.15%
House
Dems 218
Reps 217
Senate
Dems 47
Reps 51
Ind 2
Lieberman 52%
Confession: this is actually more pessimistic than I really expect for the Democrats in the House. But to win the prize one needs to be closer than anyone else, and I’m squeezing in to the far side of Robert Waller
House
Democrats 226
Republicans 209
Senate
Democrats 48
Republicans 50
Ind 2 (but both really are Democrats)
Liebermann 48.52% - and will win by about 7%
37. Is that sneaky, or what?!
Mike, if he wins the book, don’t sign it!
Apols for double post, but may be of interest: as noted in the last thread, I think that this site will have live coverage of the election:
http://www.thepeoplechoose.org/
There is a bizarre video on the site advertising it, featuring a newscaster gorilla, but the site seems serious otherwise!
House
D 301
R 146
Senate
R 48
D 50
Others 2
Liberman 51%
House: Republican 213, Democrats 222, Independent 0
Senate: Republican 49, Democrat 49, Independent 2
Lieberman 58%
A Nick Palmer prize busting entry !!
House
Dems 219
Reps 216
Senate
Dems 48
Reps 52
Inds 02
Lieberman 51.95%
Fiend!
44 Nick P. What are fiends for ??
Invasor wins Breeders Cup Classic at 11-2, as tipped by yours truly.
Mike, do I get the job of official racing correspondent for PB.com?
46 peter the punter. You are John Macririck and I claim a booby prize !!!
House: Dem 222 GOP 213 Ind 0: Dem majority of 9
Senate: GOP 50 Dem 49 Ind 1: Hung Senate
Liberman Share of Vote: 55.55%
47. LOL!!
The finest compliment I have ever received!
House
Dem 217
Rep 218
Senate
Dem 46
Rep 52
Others 2
Lieberman 52.60%
House:
Dem 225
GOP 210
Ind
Senate
Dem 47
GOP 51
Ind 2
JL - 48.55
Well, thank you Jack W for giving N.Palmer some of his own medicine … and also for making the Senate add up to 102!
House
Dem 220
Rep 215
Senate
Dem 48
GOP 50 (Lose Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri and Virgina but hold Montana and Tennessee)
Ind 2 (Lieberman and Sanders)
Lieberman 60.3%
House:
D 236
R 199
Senate:
D 48
R 50
I 2
Lieberman: 40.1 %
I meant: Senate D 49, R 50, I 1.
I see Sarkozy has suddenly become favourite to win in France - a new poll?
House
Dems 215
Reps 220
Senate
Dems 46
Reps 52
Ind 2
Lieberman 50.1%
House
Dems - 228
GOP - 207
Senate
Dems - 47
GOP - 51
Ind - 2
Lieberman - 48.9%
House
Dems 236
Rep 199
Senate
Dems 49
Rep 49
Ind 2
Lieberman vote 42.72%
Congress Dem 232
Rep 203
Senate Rep 50
Dem 49
Ind 1
43/52 Moi/Robert Waller. Oopps !! Dems in Senate 46 not 48.
House of Representatives
Democrats: 239
Republicans: 196
Others: 0
Senate
Democrats: 49
Republicans: 49
Others: 2
Tie-Breaker What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places.
House
Dem 225
GOP 210
Senate
GOP 51
Dem 47
Ind 2
JL 49.97%
House of Representatives
Democrats: 222
Republicans: 213
Others: 0
Senate
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 50
Others: 2 (Sanders/Lieberman)
Tie-Breaker What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? 51.80%
House
Dems 232
Reps 203
Senate
Dems 48
Reps 50
Others 02 - Sanders/Lieberman
Lieberman 52.68%
The independent United States Court in Iraq has issued the Death Penalty for Saddam.
Death is to be by hanging.
He has been convicted for the Deaths of 148 people who made an assasination attempt on his life.
George Bush and Tony Blair have been responsible for deaths of 600,00 innocent civilians whats their penalty?.
If 148 people turned up in London, armed, to assinate the Prime Minister, what would their fate be?.
House: Dems 235 Reps 200
Senate: Dems 50 (inc Lieberman), Reps 49, Ind 1
Lieberman will get 49.5%
House of Representatives
Democrats - 239
Republicans - 196
Others -0
Senate (total seats 100)Predict the number of seats held after the election by:
Democrats - 48
Republicans 50
Others - 2 (Sanders and Lieberman will both caucus with the Democrats - so if there’s any ambiguity on this my prediction could also be called Democrats 50!)
Lieberman % - 49.1%
House
Democrats - 232
Republicans - 203
Senate
Democrats 49
Republicans 49
Independents 2
Tiebreaker - Lieberman 51% Lamont 39% Republican no chance
If people are having problems posting please send me an email with a copy of the message.
mike@smithson.com
Our spam filters have had to be strengthened and this might be the reason.
Is blair going to hang for demenzies shoting on the tube? The people who have been tortured whilst passing through britain on the way to g.bay in cuba? Will the trial be induced to end 2 days before an election?
I’m just doing a test.
generic
House
Democrats 235
Republicans 200
Other 0
Senate
Democrats 48
Republicans 50
Other 2
Lieberman: 47.45%
House of Representatives (total seats 435). Predict the number of seats won by:
Democrats 234*
Republicans 201
Others 0
Sadly unlikely to include the excellent Jay Fawcett in CO-05
The final result in the House is going to come down to how the marginals fall, there are over 30 seats where the latest polls show a gap of less than 5% between the two lead candidates.
Senate (total seats 100)Predict the number of seats held after the election by:
Democrats 50
Republicans 48
Others 2 (Lieberman & Sanders)
This is on the basis of the Dems picking up two out of three of Montana, Missouri and Virginia.
What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places.
Joe-mentum of 47.50%
House
Dem 227
Rep 208
Senate
Rep 51
Dem 47
Other 2 (Sanders & Lieberman)
Lieberman 50.0% in CT
Senate
Rep 53 seats
Dems 45
Others 2 (Saunders & Lieberman)
House
Rep 218
Dems 217
Lieberman: 52.25%
I think the Demos are being over rated as in the past…but the recent Mason Dixon polls show Republicans closing in Montana, Maryland, Rhode Island, Pennslyvania & Ohio, and Virginia & Missouri dead heats, that doesnt mean they’ll win these seats but if the momentum seems more with the Republicans than the Democrats can’t expect to win six let alone more than 3. I could be wrong though.
Can’t the prize be topped up with a bottle of champagne or a fine wine?
Oops, left out my tie breaker - make it 49.72%.
I’ve come late to this so anyway predictions
House Elections:
Cheesy Grins - 438
Non-cheesy grins - 0
Senate:
Good hair and/or great teeth - 100
Others - 0
house
gop 220
dems 215
senate
gop 52
dems 46
ind 2
leiberman 48%
House
GOP - 207
Dems - 224
Ind - 1
Senate
GOP - 52
Dems - 46
Ind - 2
JL - 48.3%
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
GOP…… 210
Dems….. 225
SENATE
GOP…… 51
Dems….. 48
Ind…… 1 (Lieberman)
LIEBERMAN VOTE SHARE
49.75%
House of Reps
D 229
R 205
O 1
Senate
R 50
D 49
I 1
Lieberman vote share 47.95
House
227 Dem
208 GOP
No others
Senate
50 GOP
48 Dem
2 Others (Sanders & Lieberman)
Lieberman will get 49%
House
D 216
R 219
Senate
R 50
D 49
I 1
Lieberman
46.51
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
GOP…… 205
Dems….. 230
SENATE
GOP…… 49
Dems….. 50 (inc Sanders)
Ind…… 1 (Lieberman)
LIEBERMAN VOTE SHARE
56.2%
House of Representatives:
GOP: 191
Dem: 244
Ind: 0
Senate:
GOP: 50
Dem: 48
Ind: 2 (Sanders and Lieberman - both of whom will caucus with the Democrats)
Lieberman to get 47.39%
HOR
Dem 228
Rep 207
Senate
Dem 46
Rep 52
Other 2
Lieberman to get 48.92
Better late than never:
House of Representatives:
Dem: 229
GOP: 206
Ind: 0
Senate:
Dem: 50
GOP: 48
Ind: 2
Lieberman to get 48.66%
About time to do this:
House
GOP: 209
Dem: 226
GOP: 51
Dem: 47
Ind: 2
Lieberman: 48.42%
House
D 231
R 204
Senate
R 49
D 49
Others 2
Lieberman 51.12%
House:
Dems - 236
Reps - 199
Senate:
Dems - 47
Reps - 51
Inds - 2 (Lieberman and Sanders)
Lieberman - 48.76%
House:
Dem 230
GOP 205
Senate:
Dem 48 + Lieberman + Sanders
GOP 50
Lieberman - 49.75%
I think we are going to see a Democrat landslide in the House:
Dems:248
GOP: 177
Others: 0
Senate:
Dems: 49 + Lieberman + Sanders
GOP: 49
Lieberman - 48.72%
House : Dems 236 Rep 199
Senate :Dems 49 Rep 49 Others 2
Lieberman 49.41%
Senate:
Dem 47+Lieberman+Sanders
GOP 51
House:
Dem 220
GOP 215
Lieberman 49%
My prediction:
Senate: Democrat 49 / Republican 49 / Independent 2
House: Democrat 229 / Republican 206
Connectictut Senate: Lieberman 53.55%
Senate Dem 48 Rep 51 Ind 1
House Dem 227 Rep 208
Lieberman 45.7
Well here goes- our US American cousins will not be taken in by late Saddam trial fixing, or this Rove fear factor image making and;
49 for the Grand Oldies
49 for those nice Democrat people
2 for the others- Mr Sanders and old, Jo Liebers
the little ole house will go;
198 Gop, 237 Dem
and Liebers will get 48.64%
Senate Dem 48 Rep 50 Ind 2
House Dem 237 Rep 198
Lieberman 49.63
House:
Dem 235
GOP 200
Senate:
Dem 50
GOP 48
Ind 2
Lieberman – 48.25%
House:
Democrat - 216
Republican - 219
Senate:
Democrat - 45
Republican - 53
Other - 2 (Lieberman & Sanders)
Lieberman - 53%
(Senate details…GOP lose Ohio, Pennsylvania & Virginia, but get one back when Steele wins Maryland.)
PB Virgin … so here goes
Senate:
Republican - 51
Democrat - 47
Independent - 2
House:
Republican - 210
Democrat - 225
Lieberman: 46.82%
House:
Democrats - 222
Republicans - 213
Senate:
Democrats - 47
Republicans - 51
Others - 2 (Lieb and Sanders)
Lieberman - 55.5%
(The decision of the referee is final. But in not weighting the results by the inverse of the number of seats in the senate/house, you realise that the competition places greater weight on the house estimates than the senate.)
House of Representatives:
GOP 211
Dem 223
Ind 1
Senate:
GOP 50
Dem 48
Ind 2
Lieberman: 51.25%
House: GOP 212
Dems 223
Senate: GOP 52
Dems 46
Other 2
Lieberman: 46%
Number 41 has got too many Congressman. Is he/she allowed to correct his/her prediction?
I predict:
Rep 413 Dem 22
Rep 58 Dem 42
and
0.03%
P.S.
Beware of the mass ballot-rigging and unverifiable paperless results-jiggery shenanigans!
My prediction
House
GOP 202
DEM 233
IND 0
Senate
GOP 49
DEM 50
IND 1
Leiberman gets 49.2% of the vote
House
GOP 214
DEM 221
Senate
GOP 51
DEM 47
Others 2 (Sanders, Lieberman)
Lieberman vote: 48,12
House:
REP 210
DEM 225
Senate:
REP 50
DEM 48
IND: 2
Lieberman: 51.75%
House
Dem 235
Rep 200
Senate
Dem 49
Rep 49
Ind 2 (Lieberman and Sanders)
Addendum - Lieberman 50.15%
Shame as I’d love Lieberman to lose but Lamont was too negative and couldn’t reach out beyond the Dem base
Actually, I think it was more that the activist Democrats who helped him win the primary felt, probably rightly, that they had bigger fish to fry than Lieberman in the general election. Lamont did well when he had huge amounts of grassroots support, but is not a professional politician and couldn’t keep up the anti-Lieberman barrage by himself.
House
REP 213
DEM 222
IND 0
Senate
REP 50
DEM 48
IND 2 (Sanders, Lieberman)
Lieberman: 52.55
Senate
R 49
D 49
Ind 2 (Lieberman and Sanders)
House
R 209
D 226
Lieberman 47.65%
Senate
Dem 48
GOP 50
Ind 2
House
Dem 229
GOP 206
Lieberman 49.2
House:
GOP 205
Dem 230
Senate:
GOP 50
Dem 48
Ind 2
Lieberman 49.61 %
Senate
GOP 49
Dems 49
Ind 2
House
GOP 196
Dem 239
Lieberman 49.70%
House - Dems 224, Reps 211
Senate - GOP 50, Dems 48, Ind 2
Lieberman 48.73%
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