NOP poll setback for Brown against Cameron
November 25th, 2006-
The Chancellor trails 19-29 on who would make the best PM
According to Iain Dale an NOP telephone poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Edition programme on ITV found shares of Cameron 29: Brown 19: Campbell 5 when respondents were asked to say who would make the “best Prime Minister”.
A striking feature of the poll is the very high level of don’t knows or refusers - getting on for half of those who took part.
When asked who “had the freshest ideas” Cameron was beating Brown by 39-17. But to a question on national security Brown was beating Cameron by 22-21%.
I do not know whether a voting intention question was asked and further details might appear over the weekend. I am expecting at least one full poll in the papers tomorrow.
Mike Smithson
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Interesting poll results Mike. I suspect the don’t knows will move over time as they are fairly high, but as Brown is more of a known quantity with the public I suspect his image will be harder to move up.
The problem with this poll is that there is nothing to relate it to. Is this moving up or down - we don’t know? So it’s interesting - but not that interesting.
If similar results appear in other surveys then Labour might get a touch worried. If I was a Labour MP in a marginal constituency I would be getting quite concerned.
RE 2, Mike, I agree. However the Conservatives are not yet far enough in front, but are as far as Labour were at the same time in the 1992-1997 parliament on ICM’s adjusted figures.
So we hope to have a proper poll tomorrow? Good. I am begining to suffer cold turkey
Actually, this poll is bad news for Cameron, not Brown. (Or possibly as well as Brown.)
Cameron is and will remain leader of the Conservative Party; Brown is not yet leader of the Labour Party, and no doubt a few hope he never will be.
Cameron ought to match the Conservative Party’s standing in the polls, whereas Brown should trail Labour’s by the proportion who hope Blair stays on or Reid (or A N Other) wins the leadership.
It is Cameron who needs to worry that roughly a quarter of Conservative supporters do not believe he will make a good Prime Minister (and/or think Dave has lost the plot completely).
2. If I were a marginal Labour MP, I’d be ignoring these polls, as most of them seem to be.
These polls are now etting a bit repetitive and dull. We know that Cameron has has a lead againt an imaginary Gordon Brown led party, but Labour MPs and most activists think that Brown is their best bet -and will be able to revitailise Labour as leader- So they’re not going to switch support based on some dodgy polling figures that even yougovs Shakespeare says are unimportant.
Until Brown is actually leader these polls will be fairly meaningless.
3 - That may be true. But since the electoral system isn’t symmetrical (Labour could be the largest party with fewer votes) the Conservatives’ task is harder.
Can’t see it having much impact on the Labour Leadership betting, where GB’s price continues to head relentlessly south.
4. That depends on the calculation method. The party shares usually sum to 100% because they ignore don’t knows; this survey doesn’t. With greater postal voting, the liklihood of a closer result and more protest parties available to vote for, turnout next election will probably be higher than in 2005. If it’s around two-thirds, then the real figures for support (based on 37/33/22) are about Con 26, Lab 22, LD 14, Oth 6, won’t vote 32. So Cameron would be a little ahead of his party, Brown a little behind his and Ming barely registering.
8. Apologies for the dodgy maths, the Cons figure would be 25% but it doesn’t affect the general point.
Aye, but Brown is not the Leader, if he does get the job, then it would be fair to make comparisons.
Any poll at the moment is not on a level playing field, Leader against number 2. Also 47% no response. Think the whole thing makes a bit of news, but means almost nothing in real terms.
did they name any other leaders? eg Nick Griffiths? Nigel Farage? Kilroy Silk? Jon Cruddas?
are the other 47% really “dont knows”?
or none of the above?
I think the most significant comment so far has come from John L (4):
“It is Cameron who needs to worry that roughly a quarter of Conservative supporters do not believe he will make a good Prime Minister (and/or think Dave has lost the plot completely).”
When Tory voters start saying out loud that their leader has lost the plot (or never understood it), that is very significant. If I were UKIP - which I´m not - I would be most encouraged by this finding.
Beachey Head in preference to UKIP, anybody?
When Tory voters start saying out loud that their leader has lost the plot… only then will they have the middle ground.
I used to say the same about Tony Blair, but we did pretty well with him pretending to be Tory…
…extra money for the NHS, removal of immigration controls, slashing the defence budget by a third, a more representative BBC, greater EU integration and cooperation, devolution…etc etc…
I could go on but the benefits are just too many to list. Who cares if Tony Blair sounds like a Tory? It’s results that matter.
Does that mean, Left Turn, thst you don´t entirely believe in what Mr Cameron is proclaiming? Lots of people don´t, of course.
Or is Left Turn another spoof?
4. “Actually, this poll is bad news for Cameron, not Brown.”
12. ““It is Cameron who needs to worry”
What a surprise, David Cameron performs better than Brown or Campbell in this poll and he is the one that should be worried! I think that it is interesting that Brown is not even getting a bounce in recent polls simple because Blair is standing down.
12. According to ConHom’s latest survey David Cameron’s ratings have improved this month.
Tomorrow Telegraph should have a poll with 52% of Scots and 59% English people wanting Scotland independence
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2006/11/john_major_was_.html
“But to a question on national security Brown was beating Cameron by 22-21%” I would have expected Brown to have a larger lead than 1% considering Labour’s campaign, to be “tough” on security and portray Cameron as being “soft”?
I think you are spinning, Chris D, just a bit……….
18. Not surprised at these poll results Andrea. I have always been an ardent unionist, but over the last few years I have felt a lot more confident about the notion of Scotland becoming independent. I think that most people in Scotland feel the same, but that is very different from actually going into a polling booth and voting for the dissolution of the Union.
An honest debate about the implications for all in the break of the Union might finally lay to rest a few myths about Scotland’s contribution to the British economy. I think that a few people think that “get rid of Scotland” and England will automatically become a richer nation without incurring any serious negative expenses.
18. All I would say is “see ya” to the Scots. Did see a mad SNP woman on the news today talking about this and suggesting that the Scots actually subsidised the rest of the UK!!!!!
Not sure if she had taken a blow to the head or was just plain stupid but if you look at ANY economic indicator it shows London and then the South East pay way, way more than the rest of the UK.
In fact a couple of years back the London Evening Standard ran an article suggesting that the SE of England could sustain itself very well without the rest of the country, while the rest would fall apart.
Strange how many more Scots, Northerners, Welsh…come to London and the SE then go the other way. I am sure Andrea will have some figures.
It would be a sad day if it did happen for historical reasons, but not sure if many English people would shed a tear. I would say that politically it would be a result for the Tories and a disaster for Labour, not sure if they would ever win an English GE ever again?(Andrea…)
Mike, yeah, the data is a bit difficult to use because of no past results. But I remember you questioning earlier on in the week whether Brown as PM would really hurt Labour compared to Blair - maybe this goes to support the theory that at the moment Cameron does better against Gordo than Tone.
23
ISTR that the debate on scottish/uk subsidy depended on the angle at which one extended the border through (suspected) North Sea oil.
So perhaps the current argument is essentially the same.
This government will be remembered for two things.
1. Iraq.
2. Devolution, which it begins to look like it will lead to the break-up of the UK.
That’s quite an achievement for such a young party as New Labour. The greatest foreign policy disaster in modern British history, and the destruction of the most stable nation state in the world.
Well done chaps.
I’m not surprised that the Scots are starting to prefer independence. The extraordinary decision to renew Trident supported by the Tories (apparently) should be enough to persuade most sensible people to give this Parliament a wide berth if they have the chance. Quite how we can be preaching to the North Koreans and the Iranians when we intend to get a new system ourselves ………..
But then we can repatriate all the Scots to their own independent country, can´t we? Blair, Fox and Rifkind, for starters. Brown and Ming are already there with Scottish seats, so they don´t count. Can we repatriate Cameron too, I wonder. The man is useless.
And then we can start to celebrate New Years Eve without the brigade in kilts.
Wow! I just can´t wait!
4. It has been the norm for 25% of Conservatives to declare support for eurosceptic parties such as UKIP, but to return to the Party for General Elections.
Cameron has declared support for eurosceptic policies. In Built To Last, he supports ending the Common Agricultural Policy, ‘abolishing all remaining production-linked subsidies, scrapping import tarriffs and removing all export subsidies.’
Cameron’s gift is making COnservative policies sound like they’re Labour policies.
24. Martyn, the problem is that some people think that oil and gas is the only thing that Scotland contributes to the economy. They then go on to argue that the revenue from oil and gas alone does not cover the costs of the Barnett formula.
The Scottish Whisky industry helps the treasury coffer’s and the UK’s trade deficit.
When is this government going to get its act together and honour the promises it made recently to the armed forces?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6179120.stm
As a true Brit, and an English Celt, I would profoundly regret Scotland’s departure from the Union.
As a Tory and a eurosceptic, I have to say it might… ahem… be quite good. Scotland is very leftwing and europhile compared to England. If Scotland leaves the UK, the chances of another Labour government are dramatically lowered. Labour might never win again.
And the eurosceptic English, left alone, may take some serious powers back from the EU.
The interesting thing about this poll is that MORE Brits outside Scotland want Scottish independence than Scots themselves. Perhaps people are tired of this Caledonian whingeing.
Where did the tories find her (it’s a rhetorical question)?
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23375901-details/%27Restore+death+penalty+and+never+scrap+the+pound%27+says+Priti+Patel/article.do
Just your typical run of the mill hang ‘em and flog ‘em Tory Andrea. The party’s full of them.
31. “Perhaps people are tired of this Caledonian whingeing.”
SeanT, the problem is that it is not the Scots who are whingeing.
England fought hard enough to form the Union, despite a few protests from the Scots 300 years ago, now you want rid us!
Labour’s biggest problem on the Scottish independence issue is quotes like this from Brown:-
“The Conservatives don’t care about the union and about Britain. They are fighting a policy of English votes for English laws.”
Well, tickle me with a feather, but that kind of thing will sound pretty good to many English voters and turn them off Brown/Labour even more.
Matt.
33. Interestingly enough, of course, her views on capital punishment are supported by a majority of the British people. As are her views on the euro.
Just another hang ‘em and flog ‘em Briton, then. The country’s full of them.
33. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6057528.stm.
Labour does like to push it’s credentials as a tough authoritarian government.
But she also LOOKS like a smug, overfed, complacent Tory. I think she will go far in Chameron´s Britain…. (if we ever get there).
What school did she go to? Obviously not Eton…..
Roger: Yes - it’s utter hipocrisy of Blair and Brown, and indeed NuLab in general, to hark on the the Scots about how important it is for them to stay in the Union in one breath; and then in the next to announce that the fiercely anti-nuclear Scots will have more nukes forced on them and more nuclear power stations forced on them…just to help spread the load for the English!
I think Scotland is better off in the Union, but I dont blame the Scots for wanting to leave when they are constantly forced to host things they dont want by Westminster.
I suspect that for many Scots, finding out that they were being used as an aircraft carrier ‘en route to arm the Israeli bombing of Lebanese cities was the last straw…
Re Pri Patel - I hope she continues to spout such stuff, it will ensure the Tories dont move forward. Mind you, she is hot…
Pervert that you are, MBoy! You mean you really fancy smug, overfed, complacent Tories?
But what are the odds that - even as an unelected mere prospective candidate at the present moment- she will take over from Cameron within ten years? A bit long to wait perhaps. But she displays the true spirit of the Tory Party, which Cameron does not.
Mandelson’s new house in Primrose Hill:
http://img.dailymail.co.uk//i/pix/2006/11/mandelson181106_228×312.jpg
It costed £2.4million
41. Don’t know, but she’s obviously ambitious and will probably go far (if she doesn’t turn into a serial rebel, that is, which is a possibility).
OT, but it looks like the CIA just attacked Venezuela
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061125/bs_nm/energy_venezuela_refining_dc_5
Not on BBC for some reason.
32. Priti is right on the mark, except for any critism of our Dave. A great selection and I look forward to her becoming an MP.
40. Mboy. Increasingly our party is filling with those who have the X-factor. Dave for the Ladies, Dinky for gay guys and there will be Priti for the Gents.
The other benches will look a right house of horrors by comparison.
Any sign of this month YouGov political tracker poll?
Did the partial Mori poll in the Sun this week ever produce any full voting intention data?
I’m waiting for a MORI poll so we can all have a good laugh again…..
47 — yeah. We laugh at Mori because they don’t do weighting, and when the other polls come out we spend hours undoing the weighting they applied so we can compare subsets in search of the conclusions dearest to our hearts.
48 - Not me, you might get a vague understanding of male/female difference but all those trying to analyse regional variations and such are whistling in the wind.
Chris D My reading of history does not have the English fighting hard for the union. The deal cost a lot of English money and there were serious doubts on both sides.
Have the doubters been right all along?
There is just so much bitching a country can take and I suspect that many in England have had enough of being told we forced the union and profited from it, stole the oil, raped the countryside and organised massacres of the peasantry and have denied Scotland its rightful king out of pique.
In fact the imperial virus seems to have hit the Scots very hard as the Darien fiasco shows, and your countrymen went on to greater things in the union. And amazingly the English are blamed.
But then we are blamed in Scotland (see the press on line for starters) for every evil that befalls, from poor football results to bad weather, grannies bunions to Tony Blair (and he is Scotland’s after all).
I still believe the union is the best solution but it takes two to tango and the majority in Scotland seem increasingly unwilling to play nicely, demanding more than others in the UK get and still complaining.
Mind you, Labour are much to blame. They encouraged nationalism in the 80’s to fight the Thatcher government, got into a position where they had to have devolution (no more power than a parish council, wasn’t that the Blair phrase?) and then proceeded to muck it up by treating England as a convenient political and economic larder.
How we get out of this I have no idea. But an English government has to be in there at the front otherwise it might well be England that strolls off into the sunrise.
I am curious about the Yougov poll because my other half took part in a political survey for them a couple of weeks ago. IIRC there were some questions about Iraq which he thought did not give you a wide enough scope of options.
ICM in the Telegraph: 37/31/23 Con/Lab/Lib. No significant change from previous ICM poll in the Guardian a few days earlier (Con unchanged, Lab-1, LD +1). But the LDs are at the top end of their usual range, which as I can’t think of anything special they’ve done recently I would guess reflects a degree of reluctance to support either of the other parties.
Nick 52. I’m not so sure that the ICM figures are a national poll. This is what the paper says “There was good news for David Cameron, the Conservative leader, when voters in England were asked who they would back in a general election held tomorrow. The Tories were on 37 per cent, with 31 per cent backing Labour and 23 per cent supporting the Liberal Democrats.”
It would be very odd for the report just to have the English figures but my reading is that those numbers are just that.
12. Sage. Not sure how you work out we have the most to worry about from this 29-19-and ahem…5.
Five!!! Not quite “Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government” is it?
So 3/4 of LibDem supporters (if we are kind and say they are 20%) do not think Ming would make the best PM.
Dear oh dear oh dear.
And 35/33/20 in MORI in the Observer (certain to vote only - Labour ahead 6% on ‘all with a preference’), but with discouraging data on Cameron’s standing, now lower than Tony Blair’s, especially with women (exact figures not given):
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1957290,00.html
Note that figures on politicians’ standing are not usually weighted for turnout, so should be compared with ‘all with a preference’ and similar previous polls. In the previous poll in October, Labour was 9% ahead on ‘all with a preference’, but TB was -28% and DC -1%, so there appears to have been a dramatic drop in Cameron’s rating that has not yet affected the Tory position.
Time for bed. We can all spin these as we wish in the morning!
44. Dude no one attacked anyone.
The last thing the USA needs is any signs of pumps stopping anywhere….
The MORI Cameron figures are always completely out of kilter with the other pollsters, does anyone know the actual question asked for them and, say, Yougov? It’d be interesting to see what nuance of phrasing changes the figures so comprehensively.
53: If that poll is England-only it’d be a very poor result for the Tories. But I suspect it’s a slipshod copy editor.
Note that the October MORI poll appeared to be a pro-Labour outlier, just as the October ICM one seemed to put Labour too low - we were scratching our heads about both at the time. Overall very little change: the big story is Cameron’s drop, though the article is irritatingly non-specific.
55 — didn’t Jim Callaghan tell us all good people are in bed by 11?
50. B2W, most of the whingeing is coming from down South. Have been watching some of the media coverage about the rivalry between England and Australia over the ashes. Funny how the Aussie’s are allowed to enjoy good natured banter about the “poms”, but the Scot’s can’t enjoy the same privilege.
“But then we are blamed in Scotland (see the press on line for starters) for every evil that befalls, from poor football results to bad weather, grannies bunions to Tony Blair (and he is Scotland’s after all).” I honestly do not recognise this description of Scottish opinion. There is a very popular programme in Scotland called “only an excuse” which did a tongue in cheek world cup special. England got one mention, the rest of the show was devoted to taking the mickey out the Scotland team, its coaches, the tartan army and Labour politicians.
I think that the problem is that a few people are having a bit of a sense of humour failure. I am amazed that a light-hearted reply to SeanT’s comments resulted your post.
55:Why would they not give the exact figures if they had them. The date of the poll is the 9th to the 14th of November. It seems out of date.
55.”And 35/33/20 in MORI in the Observer” Is this part of the same Mori poll which the Sun produced partial details of earlier this week or a different poll?
53. Mike, could this be part of this poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=VV4FRX1DKOIO5QFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2006/11/26/nunion26.xml
That would explain why it is the England only voting intention, would also imply that there might be a separate Scottish voting intention question which included the SNP?
60. Oh I don’t know Chris. The football thing is something that irritates many English people. We will cheer on our Scottish friends but then they always want to see us lose.
The perception many have is that Scotland is ungrateful. That is a shame. Scotland has the SNP and Labour to blame for any negative image.
Telegraph graphic contains an error.
It says “Government spending per head is higher in England than in Scotland. Is this justified?”
Yet the narrative in the story indicates (correctly of course) that the question should be the other way round.
Hopeless!
64. DDC, again you miss my point. You see it as a personal affront if the Scots take the mickey out of the England team or supporter’s, but fail to see that we do the same to our team and supporter’s.
Remember the the Del Amitri song in honour of the Scots football team, “Don’t come home too soon”. My favourite comment in that world cup was a former Scotland player predicting that the team would be home before the postcards!
The England fans see nothing less than a World or European cup final as failure, the Scots would see getting to the 2nd round as a major success. As I said earlier a serious sense of humour failure when it comes to football makes you far to sensitive to the opinion of other nations teams.
We are all passionate about football but you have to be able to laugh if you are a Scottish fan and just learn to enjoy the occasion rather than the very predictable result.
Exactly, DC (55). We are talking about the best Prime Minister, not the best policies to goverm the country. So 71% and 81% think that Brown and Cameron are not the best person, presumbly because some of you sex-mad Tories would prefer Preti Patel, for example.
On the Lib Dem front bench there is a wide selection of considerable talent, so there is little surprise that relatively few opt for Ming as “best prime minister”. In contrast, there is such a paucity of talent on the Tory front bench, that Chameron is able to concentrate a massive 29% of preferences.
I think these figure speak more of the quality of the front bench than of the leadership characteristics of the (excuse the redundancy) of each party´s leader. So on that basis, Labour is doing better than the Tories too.
67. Sage. Your middle paragraph is one of the funniest I have read. If I really thought you believed your own spin I’d be concerned for your mental wellbeing.
Lets not get too ambitious about about Priti just let but we do have real talent in our party rather than the collection of oddballs elsewhere.
As a Scot I always sit down to watch England games with the best of intentions hoping they do well. However after 15 minutes of listening to the inane one-sided biased commentary of Motson et al I find myself rooting for the opposition.