Tories in lead with Mori for the first time since July
November 26th, 2006
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Labour support drops 4% on the month as LDs get boost
The latest Mori survey, published in the Observer, shows a sharp fall-back in Labour support. Its poll, carried out from November 9-14th, has the following shares with the changes from October - CON 35 (nc): LAB 33 (-4): LD 20 (+2).
The poll is quite old and the field-work finished a week last Tuesday. Thus the whole of the survey was completed before the Queen’s Speech the week before last and was finalised five days before the November ICM poll for the Guardian which we reported here on Wednesday. So Tony Blair’s “big clunking fist” endorsement of Gordon Brown took place after the poll was completed.
Like all Mori surveys the headline figures are based on those who say they are certain to vote. Amongst all respondents Labour has a 5% lead.
The firm has been the only pollster since April to have reported Labour leads and this latest survey is the first to have the Tories ahead since July.
The poll has bad news for Cameron - a decline to 25% of those saying they are satisfied with his performance as leader of the opposition - a product perhaps of the intensive campaign by the Murdoch press in the period just before the poll attacking the Tory leader. This figure, it should be noted, was not subject to Mori’s turnout filter but should be worrying nevertheless if supported by other polling firms. There’s a list of Cameron approval polls here.
My usual Mori comment. Unlike the other main pollsters carrying out monthly polls Mori do not seek to ensure their samples are politically representative by asking how respondents voted last time and making adjustments. For this reason I attach less importance to the pollster than to surveys from Populus, ICM and YouGov.
I should note that the pollster has invited me to a breakfast meeting with leaders of the firm just before Christmas and I will report back on the site.
In the same poll a year ago, just before the change in the Tory leadership, Mori was reporting Labour on 42% - ten points ahead of the Tories. In December 2005 this had changed to a 9% Tory lead - an extraordinary turnaround.
There is an poll in the Sunday Telegraph this morning on view of Scottish independence both north and south of the border. More later on this.
UPDATE: There are voting intention figures in the ICM poll - showing CON 37%, LAB 31%, LD 23%. It is not clear whether this is a normal ICM finding for Great Britain or, as the article suggests, for England alone. Maybe the print edition of the paper will clarify this. The shares are very similar to what ICM had in the Guardian on Wednesday. I cannot recall the pollster ever producing England-only shares but maybe this is different. Maybe not.
A total of 52% of those in Scotland said they favoured independence and, perhaps very surprisingly, 59% of respondents in England supported the proposition. There was also support from 48% of the English group to the notion of English independence.
SECOND UPDATE: The print edition of the Observer makes confusing reading for those trying to work out precisely what was in the Mori poll. It prints two charts - one showing, apparently, a RISE in satisfaction amongst all voters since January for Cameron with a slight decline since September. That does not marry up with the story. Why in heaven’s name don’t they just print a table of numbers instead of fancy colour charts which are highly misleading? Rubbish Observer - Rubbish
The print edition of the Telegraph makes clear that two ICM surveys took place - one in Scotland and one in England. So the vote shares sown above were for England only.
Mike Smithson
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Indeed, Mike, very disappointing news for our Tory cheerleaders here.
“The revelation that only 25 per cent of the electorate consider themselves ’satisfied’ with Cameron’s performance as leader of the opposition - rising only to 45 per cent among Tory voters, down from 60 per cent in February - will be a blow to his inner circle, given that it suggests a similar trajectory to his failed predecessors Howard, Iain Duncan Smith and William Hague.
The most common reason for dissatisfaction was lack of clarity about his policies.”
More at http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1957290,00.html
This is something that many of us have been commenting on here on PBC over recent months. Chameron cannot be all things to all men (nor indeed to all women). Some Tory suporters are threatening to jump off Beachey Head if he does what he is saying (or suggesting, more exactly). Other Tories are cheering him on.
Effectively, Chameron is talking up the Lib Dem agenda. In his efforts to “rebrand” the Tories, he is sellng a totally false prospectus and sooner or later people will cotton on that - despite the packaging - they are the same old Toies that they have always been.
Meanwhile, Chameron, if a little light on detail, is very kindly putting forward the Lib Dem agenda. So those who are convinced by what he is hinting and insinuating will - we hope - vote for the genuine article, represented by the Lib Dems.
This was the theme, more or less, of one of you leading articles recently, Mike, and I think you are spot on. When even the Tory Leader speaks so consistently in favour of LibDemmery, there is bound to be some movement in political opinion, at least in the long term.
1. Tressage - I agree. This certainly should be very worrying for the Tories if other pollsters also pick it up. We are getting such a mixed picture - just look at the NOP poll reported in my previous article.
I have to agree with Tressage. Cameron has managed to make the Tories appear electable for the first time in over a decade, but has done so not with the party’s own principles, but those of the LDs. To me, this bodes ill for the Tories; surely the rank and file of the party will not stand for forced conversion to LD ideology. In the mean time, disgruntlement within the party has also weakened the public sense that the Tories have “cleaned up”, and now the burden is on Cameron to make good on his promises of Liberal Democrat-Conservatives. I honestly don’t think he can, and that is his weakness.
A pity for the LDs that they do not have a strong leader who could capitalize on all of those voters swinging to LD rhetoric only to be disappointed by finding Tories underneath. A pity for Labour, too, that their government is too old and tired to seem like a viable alternative any more. Small wonder the Greens and BNP are making steady gains.
Er, it’s MORI?
Having said that, a friend of mine was actually interviewed as part of the fieldwork for this one, if it’s the same one, and one of the questions was ‘Who would you prefer as Leader of the Labour Party, Gordon Brown or John Reid?’
I take it that those figures don’t fit in with the Observer’s story, so will be kept for some other time?
BTW since we seem to be straying off the thread and onto whether or not Camerons Conservatives are a paler shade of yellow, I am intrigued by this. Since the LDs have a history of jumping on any passing bandwagon I can understand why they want to claim Cameronism for themselves, but if they read the speeches and listen to the words, rather than believing what the media spin, they would see good, common sense, Conservative politics. Maybe it is just becoming a little uncomfortable for the Lib Dems as we reposition ourselves back in our natural centre right ground. As DC (Darren not Dave) says, a return to two party politics???
Absolute rubbish, Ben. Time you went back to school I think…
“Since the LDs have a history of jumping on any passing bandwagon (sic) I can understand why they want to claim Cameronism for themselves…”
Quite the other way round.
Which was the party that backed European integration right from the start? (That´s a historical one…)
Which party was from the start against the Blair-Bush war in Iraq?
Which party was against the introduction of identity cards?
Which party advocated reform of convicted criminals rather than just shutting them up (and was massively derided by Labour and Tory alike at the last general election)?
Which of the major parties has had all its policies evaluated for their environmental impact at the last two general elections (it may be three)?
And so on. Chameron´s conversion to Liberal Democracy is to be welcomed, as Mike suggested recently. Whether he himself really believes half of what he is saying, I do not know, and I suspect he does not know himself either.
But if the Tory leadership is disposed to embrace Liberal Democracy, then I am sure that is something to be welcomed. Whether his traditional Tory followers will indeed follow him is another matter. I suspect that Sean Fear will join AH Matlock on the road to Beachey Head.
But if you, Ben, believe in the Chameronian discourse, then I suggest that you take another look at the Lib Dem websites. You will then see what the original article looks like. Far more convincing.
Perhaps the real news is that the majority of the British people nowfavour the disolution of the UK.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/11/26/nunion26.xml
Interestingly enough, more English favour Scottish Independence than in Scotland itself.
Clear evidence the people wish for further regional autonomy with greater EU integration.
funny that although Scots are more likely to think themselves Scottish - but are more in favour of the (UK) Union.
English feel themselves more British but are less in favour of the (UK) Union.
intersting reading and good news for EU integration
Excluding the “Don’t knows”, as is standard practive in voting intention polls, 73% of respondents in England want a devolved English Parliament; and 53% want English independence. For how much longer can the UK’s 3 main political parties ignore the elephant in the room?
I find it remarkable in itself that so few respondents in England replied “Don’t know” (there are actually more “Don’t knows” in Scotland, where we have had decades of this high profile debate). Only 7% DK on the English devolution question, and 9% DK on the English independence question. This shows that this whole constitutional issue has escaped the confines of the chattering political classes, and is now a running issue out in the real world. How can the Establishment get this issue back out of circulation - seems a tough task.
Presumably the higher level of support for Scottish independence than English independence is because a small but significant number of English people wish to retain their political ties with Wales, which has after all been part of the English state since the 13th century, although not fully integrated until the 16th century. I find it very hard to imagine that many English people would be happy to continue ties with N Ireland if they could possibly avoid it.
Is, as the Sunday Telegraph and ICM worded it “govt spending per head higher in England than in Scotland”? Mmmm… only if you exclude “continental shelf” revenues, ie. oil - which seems a tad misleading.
Is this quote from Gordon Brown a genuine verbatim one?
*“”We should never let the Nationalists deceive people into believing that you can break up the United Kingdom.”
Because if it is it is truly remarkable!
Indeed we, the people, “can” break up the United Kingdom if we wish to. It is actually very straightforward. All we need are lots of pencils, little sheets of white paper, and ballot boxes. It is called democracy Gordon.
Yes, Tressage, I am certainly gutted that the poll shows a massive increase in Tory fortunes and has us in the lead for the first time since the summer.
It really is disheartening being a Tory at present, having to face all those sustained leads in poll after poll after trailing for a decade.
When I go around canvassing in advance of May’s council elections I have to reflect bitterly that last time, Labour lost 319 seats and we gained a pathetic 316, with the LibDems on a massive plus two. Where are the other three Labour seats? This haunts me as I agonise over the threat from UKIP, which has seen its membership cut in half….
MORI means nothing. I’d always rather a good poll than a bad one, but am more cheered by yesterday’s finding than by today’s. Never rated Mori, notwithstanding how many ‘please don’t hurt us’ breakfasts they give to Mike
The figures on Independence for Scotland are interesting but of no real importance as with polls comparing voting intentions with Brown v Cameron . Those of us who remember the referendum on remaining in the EEC in 1975 will recall how public opinion changed when voters had to make a real decision in the polling booths rather than a hypothetical question in an opinion poll and so I believe it would prove if the issue of the break up of the UK was subjected to significant debate in the media .
1. Cameron is not pushing the Lib Dem agenda. He is appealing to Lib Dem voters, and ex-Lib Dem voters. As most ex-Labour voters (the largest growing sector of floaters) take a pit stop with the Lib Dems before moving on, Cameron is pitching at the largest target market available, and doing well with them.
His problem is the Conservative right wing which shudders at every PR success in the above campaign. On poverty Cameron hasn’t gone left wing. He’s actually reaffirmed Conservative thinking, and developed it by saying that The State has not the answers to poverty. But no one looks at what he’s actually saying - only at the headlines. Of course he sounds left wing. That’s the whole idea!
His other problem is the EU-backed Murdoch media. Like IDS and Thatcher before him, unless Cameron bows down to the EU, he’ll get a kicking from the Murdoch quarter. The EU Competition Commissioner decides whether Murdoch can keep his media privileges or not. If Murdoch doesn’t keep Cameron out of power, the EU might trade with another ambitious entrepreneur, and split away some Murdoch privileges. Will Richard Branson become the next one to prevent Britain escaping the clutches of Brussels?
If Cameron’s own people realised why Murdoch was hunting Cameron - because he is alleged to be a europsceptic by those in the know (Ed Balls etc) - they would be very satisfied with his leadership. Meanwhile Farage thinks he’s going to pick up lorry loads of Conservative votes. As usual he probably will at the Euro elections. At the GE, Conservatives will return to the fold despite their ruffled feathers.
11 Mark Senior
It wasn’t so much the “figures on Independence for Scotland” that were interesting (60% of Scots support it, excluding DKs - which is almost identical to the last poll a few weeks ago). It was the figures on Independence for England, among English people, that were the truly remarkable thing. This topic is very rarely tackled by pollsters, or, if it ever is, the numbers are never published AFAIK.
Do you Lib Dems really, really want a “significant debate in the media” about this? You are ill-advised if you do!
“EU backed Murdoch media” - ?
12 It is quite hard to see who he is appealing to - although he does seem to have a stranglehold on the Old Etonian vote. The news for Cameron is not all negative. But he is not making great progress. I wonder how much longer the tory Right will be prepared to see him fail to put away half-volleys.
One of the stories with this poll is the extent to which YouGov seems to give a different story to ICM, Populus, and MORI. (BTW wasn’t the last MORI thought to have been affected by Blair’s big speech?)
http://www.liberalreview.com/content/2006/11/cameron-in-the-footspes-of-hague-ids-and-howard
It’s probably premature to conclude that Cameron is adopting a Lib/Lab set of policies. What he’s doing is adopting a Lib/Lab atmosphere. If Ben Redsell thinks his comments mostly sensible, as far as they go I don’t see anything much to object to in most of them either. Indeed I’d have thought the same when I was a Communist (hello seanT!).
As I’ve said before, I don’t think he has a particular set of political objectives (or his previous stances as a senior figure in 2001/2005 campaigns would be puzzling): he sees it as a marketing problem. At some point he’ll need to decide whether to follow through and adopt Lib/Lab policies, or use the general atmosphere as a screen for Tory policies. I suspect he himself thinks he’ll decide later, plenty of time for details like that.
10 - Tapestry, if Murdoch is secretly pro-EU, he’s doing a magnificent job at hiding it.
England % last year were:
Con 35.7
Lab 35.4
LD 22.9
So if the poll is really just about England, the change are similar to the this week’s main ICM poll for Lab and LD. LD are almost unchanged, Lab is down around 4% from the GE.
The tories are up just 1/2% though: less than usual.
If the figures are just for England, I suppose that they’ve somewhere Scottish figures too (considering they had a Scottish sample to ask questions about independence).
12 Tapestry - “His other problem is the EU-backed Murdoch media.”
Is this some form of extreme typo? Or do you know something nobody else knows?! LOL!!
16 Nick Don’t you think that the best way for Labour to deal with Cam the man is to back him in his attempt to modernise the Tories. If Labour can egg him on, and back him he will either:
a) Get carried away and infuriate the true blue set.
b) Appear to be conservative relative to Labour.
I still think you have to get behind him, let Labour take the credit for Cameron and the demise of the old Tory party that it deserves. Eventually the time will come to leave Cameron behind.
18 Andrea
Well, the Sunday Telegraph explicitly states: “… when voters in England were asked who they would back in a general election held tomorrow.”
Now, unless the writers - Patrick Hennessy and Melissa Kite - cannot differentiate between England and Great Britain (N Ireland is always excluded from voting intention polls) then your analysis is correct. But wouldn’t it be profoundly ironic if the ST was using the word “England” to mean “GB” in such an article!
21. Stuart, I wonder if they’re leaving the Scottish figures for another edition (especially if they’ve asked them Holyrood voting intentions)
How on earth can you vote a party out when the working public are too busy working long hours, sometimes several jobs to pay the salaries of these bloated public SERVANTS and those lazy b4stards on benefits who are leeches on the backs of hard working british families.
It comes as no suprise how Generous New Labour are with Taxpayers money.
A political party built on the envy of those who deserve least, not just because they respresent all we despise about the Unions, the disgusting corrupt labour councils, or the sheer lack of any moral compunction to address the needs of the people who work so hard to keep this nation afloat.
This party are the epitetomey of all that is wrong with human nature and the jealousy that comes from within.
Honest decent working people with their familes should rise up and remove New Labour who have shown themselves to nothing more than a smegma on the backcloth of humanity.
Lets all hope the SNP get their way and win the Scottish Elections and make Scotland independent within 120 days, that would lose Gordon the kilt wearing infil traitor his seat in the Scottish Parliament and also his unearnt place as Prime Minister of England.
We should then send both Blair and Brown to Iraq to face a fair trial in the Iraqi courts for their deeds.
21 Some ST journalists, Stuart, would have difficulty distinguishing their elbow from their weekend pass.
14, 17, 19. Seems like I’ve splattered a few cornflakes around the breakfast tables!
Yes Murdoch does do a good job of hiding it - as you would expect. It was not me dear friends, who noticed that Rupert Murdoch is the EU’s main agent in the UK. It was Lance Price who worked with Alastair Campbell in Downing Street. In his memoir The Spin Doctor’s Diary, he recalled being told by ’someone who should know’ that the government could not alter policy on the EU without talking to Murdoch first.
Once you start looking for evidence of Murdoch’s involvement in EU promotion, it is not hard to find. The occasional eurosceptic-sounding article does little compared to his role in ensuring the survival of europhile governments, and his assassination of a succession of eurosceptic Tory leaders.
Cameron likewise is getting a lot of flack from Murdoch because he’s not attending EU meetings and brown nosing Brussels. Murdoch is desperate for support from Brussels to see off Branson’s attempt to grab his Premier League TV rights with NTL/ITV. The attempt to shoe Gordon Girl’s Blouse Brown into the Labour Leadership is looking rocky, so nerves are jangling all round. SOrry about the Cornflakes.
22 Andrea
I certainly hope so: nothing I like better than a Scottish voting intention poll.
If this ST/ICM poll is really measuring English GE voting intention, does that not make it highly unusual? I cannot remember the last time we had a purely English poll. The only way of getting England-only numbers is usually be extracting the figures from the detailed data of some polls; but even this is not usually possible, and never published.
You highlight an oft ignored fact: the Conservatives won the popular vote in England at last year’s geberal election. That fact makes the West Lothian Question even more problematic for Gordon Brown, John Reid, Alistair Darling, Douglas Alexander, Des Browne, Charlie Falconer, Ian McCartney et al.
26. Stuart, yes, they’re pretty unusual. A possible explanation is that all other questions were about independence according to Scotts and English people and so maybe they didn’t have Welsh people in the sample
Given that the Scottish Political Party known as New Labour have presided over the worst economic mismanagment in the entire history of England leaving us with massive inflation in Property coupled with wages being deflated,gaping holes in our public service whilst we have invested the tax pounds of hard working British Families.
What is the remedy aside from bringing in the Tories tommorow to sort out the mess left by yet another inept, and financially and morally corupt Labour Government?.
Do they need to force a house price crash, to return England to the hands of hard working British Families, so they can once again get on with their lives of managing their children and saving for their futures, as opposed to constantly saving towards intentionaly inflated house prices?
Does anyone have a viable solution to offer?.
From where most people are sitting, the only outcome for a solution is economic meltdown in the hope that England can then build itself up again to where it once was under the Tories. With a healthy balance sheet, real jobs that are productive to the nation not just those in public office, and a stance in Global Relations that made the British Isle’s stand out as an honourble and fair nation that was respected throughout the entire civilised world
23 jimmy
A couple of factual points:
1. Gordon Brown does not have a seat in the Scottish Parliament
2. there has been no such post as “Prime Minister of England” since 1707, although it appears that a majority of English people would like to see it return
I would just love to see a photograph of Gordon Brown in a kilt! That would boost his ratings in Middle England about as much as this pic boosted Jack McConnell’s ratings in Middle Scotland:
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=806&id=82322005
For more, scroll down this delightful array of hairy knees:
http://www.dressedtokilt.com/tartan_day_040306.html
UPDATE: I have just added this:-
The print edition of the Observer makes confusing reading for those trying to work out precisely what was in the Mori poll. It prints two charts - one showing, apparently, a RISE in satisfaction amongst all voters since January for Cameron with a slight decline since September. That does not marry up with the story. Why in heaven’s name don’t they just print a table of numbers instead of fancy colour charts which are highly misleading? Rubbish Observer - Rubbish
The print edition of the Telegraph, which I checked out in the shop without buying, makes clear that two ICM surveys took place - one in Scotland and one in England. So the vote shares shown above were for England only.
I suspect that this ICM poll on Independence/devolution is not wholly reliable (depending on your view point). There were a lot of questions emphasising the ‘unfairness’ of the current situation - the difference in public spending per head, the West Lothian question etc etc. If these came first then it is hardly surprising that the English look to be up in arms about the whole situation.
Including questions which emphasise the benefits to England of the Union could have produced substantially different results.
In other news:
The Prime Minister plans to go further than any previous leader in seeking to distance himself from the actions of the British Empire, nearly 200 years after the 1807 legislation that led to slavery’s abolition
Dammit. And i thought we were going to pin this one on him
29
I’ve just noticed: that last link has the only known photo of Sir Stirling Moss in a kilt! And a very fine figure he cuts too. Perhaps more English (and Italian?) folk should give it a twirl?
29. I prefer some of the models to Jack McConnell.
I can’t also see both Gordon and Salmond looking good in a kilt
28. I’m confused. Are you saying economic meltdown is possibly the best thing that could now happen?
Jesus, the kilt is a ridiculous piece of clothing. Most of the people in those pictures don’t exactly help themselves with their choice of socks and footwear!
An interesting straw in the wind came from ‘Any Questions’ yesterday . The loudest cheers which are normally reserved for those denouncing Blair’s Iraq policy went instead to those who said Cameron didn’t know what he stood for.
I have no doubt that if the Tories ever get back in at Westminster the Scots will vote overwhelmingly for the Nationalists. I don’t think people in England realize what a dirty word ‘Tory’ is in Scotland. Thatcher has a lot to answer for!
You must have enough interesting straws to play an interesting game of pick-up-sticks by now, Roger?
27 Andrea
Aha, yes! I hadn’t thought of that. Seems likely now you mention it.
In which case: thank you very much the Sunday Telegraph. You have provided the English electorate with something that we Scots take for granted - their own opinion poll.
11 What a strange comment Stuart , Of course LibDems want and the country as a whole needs a debate on this issue . That is the essence of politics and I find it very strange that you seem to be shy of such a debate .
30 Mike Smithson - “… which I checked out in the shop without buying”
An admirable trait. Do you have Scottish ancestry?
The Scots are seriously misguided wanting independence. They’ve missed the boat for European subsidies a la Ireland, and would quickly defend into basket case status.
40 Mark Senior
Au contraire. There is nothing that I would relish more than a large, on-going debate about the constitution of the United Kingdom. I would be like the proverbial pig in muck!
If 59% of the English want Scotland to leave the Union I’m sure that figure would rise to about 90% for Northern Ireland. Perhaps without Scotland and Northern Ireland we’ll lose our seat on the Security council. That would be good………
re 41. At least the Sunday Telegraph isn’t like the Mail on Sunday which is always wrapped in polythene and you can’t read it without ripping the pack apart. One of the reasons I hate BPIX polls in the Mail on Sunday is that they are not featured online and I have to fork out some cash for the the print edition.
My local Budgens is rather good. The papers are in a back corner of the shop and you can happily read away while hanging onto your cash.
Can anyone do an overall UK calculation from the two ICM voting figures.
31 Alex
Well, we won’t know the question-ordering until the detailed dataset is published.
34 Andrea
Alex Salmond never, ever wears a kilt. And if Gordon Brown has any sense he will follow the example.
37 Roger
Indeed! When Scotland does eventually regain her sovereignty, we will owe an enormous debt of gratitude to Margaret Thatcher, and to Tony Blair. Both, in there own way, did more to boost support for Scottish independence than the SNP has ever managed.
42 Alex
Jack McConnell said in a recent lecture: “Rather than saying Scots couldn’t afford to be independent or that Scots are incapable of going it alone, as some will argue, my argument is more positive.” That old “ye cannae dae it” nonsense just doesn’t wash nowadays.
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1751812006
Peter Hain on Marr making the case for renewing Trident. I’m starting to despair of Labour. They give me that same sinking feeling I used to get from the Tories. And Peter Hain of all people. A one time hero of mine!
46 Punter
Nope. For two reasons:
1. the Scottish voting intention figures were not published (although, as Andrea pointed out, they could be published later on this week)
2. no interviewing was conducted in Wales
[45] Guess which of the Mail and Telegraph groups makes the bigger profit!
Stuart Dickson, since you’re so keen to debate S.N.P. policy (which I suspect those of us south of the Tweed are seriously vague about) could you please enlighten us as to the following
- would the S.N.P. continue to exist after it had achieved its goal of Scottish independence, and if so, why?
- since an independent Scotland would very soon be the envy of all other nations, would it be prepared to extend its borders if, say, the people of Cumbria voted in “secessionist” MPs to the English Parliament? Would it seek to covertly fund such candidates in English constituencies north of the Tees (allegedly the “real” border between the two countries, Jack W will doubtless enlighten us all further)?
- suppose the English and Irish governments decided that it would be a good idea to re-plant the Ulster Scots back where they came from (a proposal I have little doubt would be popular in both countries). How big a bribe would an independent Scotland need to implement such a plan?
11 Mark Senior
13 “It was the figures on Independence for England, among English people, that were the truly remarkable thing. This topic is very rarely tackled by pollsters, or, if it ever is, the numbers are never published ”
Agreed the 3 main parties should beware of the English backlash which has bben sensed but thisnis the first poling evidence.
An English Parliament is the logical conclusion of the devolution settlement. Such a body would allow the rplacement of the Lords by an British senate to deal with remaining British Issues.
If the main parties ignore the unfairness English electors feel then a rebranded BNP?UKIP as The English National party could make life difficult for them.
Roger H
Oh dear - another poll showing the Cons in the lead - best get spinning its bad news for Cameron - he should be winning by more etc etc.
Surely NuLab must be bricking it at the thought of an independant Scotland - whithout all those Scottish MPs (and the money they bring in) they could be up s**t creek.
50 Innocent Abroad
Lordy, what an odd set of questions! Nevertheless, I will do my best to answer them, but please note that I am just an ordinary member of the Scottish National Party: I hold no office or post whatsoever within the party, paid or unpaid; and I am not going to be a candidate, at any level whatsoever, in the foreseeable future. Therefore, anything I say is my own personal opinion, and not necessarily SNP policy.
Firstly, and unsurprisingly, the SNP does not have a policy on any of those issues!
1. Perhaps not. The whole point of the SNP is to work towards Scottish independence. Once independence is acheived, what is the point of the organisation at the heart of that campaign? I personally will no longer be interested in the SNP, and will help build a new liberal party. Others though are perfectly entitled to have an ongoing SNP - it is the voters who will decide if there is any point in that.
2. Nope. We are not remotely interested in such nonsense. We respect England and the English, and rather than playing childish games we are certain to work closely with the English government in many international forums, and not stick our noses into her internal affairs. (Jack W likes to play the court jester in such matters.)
3. I do not “suppose” that the English, Irish or Scottish governments, nor the general international community, would adopt, support or condone a policy of ethnic cleansing. Do you?
18. Replied to your post at 47 on the Party funding thread at 48 on that thread.
45 - Unless, of course, the manager of your local Budgens is reading this thread?
In which case your newspaper bill has probably just risen by around 500%…
30 - Calm down, dear, it’s only a poll.
50 IA. As far as the Scottish borders are concerned, presently we have no claims outside of Corby, Harpenden (claim soon to be rescinded) and Belgravia (claim soon to be invoked)
The Scottish Jacobite Party, a treacherious adjunct of Hanovarian spies, claims sovereignty over Cumbria and Northumbria. My own Jacobite Party is happy with para 1.
56 John O. That’s what Lord Halifax said !!
[53] Well, I wasn’t being wholly serious (apart from the first question, to which you have given a perfectly sensible reply).
I think the other contingencies are pretty unlikely myself, but then, so often it is the pretty unlikely that comes to pass, after long enough. To take an example from the other side of the world, white and Asian South Africans have a pretty good quality of life to-day. Whether they will continue to do so in thirty years’ time once a signficant proportion of the black electorate can’t remember the apartheid régime is another question altogether.
I don’t really think there will be a demand from the north of England to join Scotland - the emotional appeal of “nationhood” isn’t there, for one thing. But I do think - although obviously I framed it in a rather fey manner, and you replied in the same tone of voice, fair enough - that the “break-up of Britain” will be disturbing for many Protestants in the north of Ireland - let’s face it, a fair few of them are not exactly averse to paranoia, and more than one Loyalist thug has fled to Scotland when the heat in Belfast got too much…
I think it’s only proper that the S.N.P. should think this through, take soundings with Irish parties on both sides of the border, and produce a policy. At the very least my wife, who is a Belfast lass with a Scottish mother, will want to know whether she could travel on a Scottish passport…
57 Two ns in Hannover, shurely?
60 PtP. Ownly iff youre spelin is az baad az Tabman’s aynd myne.
58 - Jack, He’s more “The Czechs are in the post”
56 - Calm down dear it’s only a Mori poll. They don’t have anything as sophisticated as tables of numbers.
re 57. This is the Wikipedia referenceo to the Scottish Jacobite Party - The Scottish Jacobite Party is registered as a political party with the UK Electoral Commission. Formed on 8 July 2005, they favour the establishment of an independent Scottish republic based on their concept of a “unifying political theory” that “the citizen is king”. This ideology states that if political decisions are made with this idea being consistently taken into account then temporary political expediency can be avoided and the public interest served. The notion that the people are central to the political process and their explicit support for republicanism does not fit with the traditional meaning of Jacobites - that is, those who favour the restoration of the House of Stuart to the Scottish (and indeed, English) monarchy. They state that their views are a modern interpretation of Jacobitism.
Some of their other views include moving the Scottish and English border southwards to run from Morecambe Bay to Flamborough Head along latitude 54 degrees, 7 minutes North (thus adding Carlisle, Durham, Sunderland, Teesside and Tyneside to Scotland).
They have stated that Newcastle United F.C., Sunderland A.F.C., Middlesbrough F.C. and Carlisle United F.C. would be transferred into the Scottish Premier League, and that all football teams in this league would be nationalised, with television revenues being split equally amongst all participating clubs. Foreign players will also be banned from playing in Scotland if the party ever comes to power.
Is this entry anything to do with you Jack?
61 Just hanover mistake then…
64 Mike. The Scottish Jacobite Party “favour the establishment of an independent Scottish republic”
Not on your nelly Mike !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
59 Innocent Abroad
Yes, the reason I answered you at all is that I know you are a serious PB regular, and I realised you had your tongue at least partially in your cheek. Normally such “queries” deserve to be ignored.
Your final point there about entitlement to a Scottish passport is however a serious one. The issue of who would be entitled to Scottish citizenship certainly is one that has been published SNP policy, but I cannot remember the details off the top of my head. (Perhaps someone could Google it up?)
What I do remember is that all residents would be offered Scottish citizenship. The SNP is big on “civic nationalism” and we generally look with disdain on “blood and soil nationalism”, therefore I would certainly not assume that those that claimed some kind of Scottish “ethnicity” (whatever that is - we are truly a mongerel nation) would be entitled to apply.
Of course, the fact that we are all in these islands also European Union citizens makes this issue less important than it otherwise would have been. English, Irish and Welsh citizens domiciled in Scotland would have exactly the same rights and responsibilities as Scottish citizens, with the obvious exception of the right to vote in national elections (although they could vote in local and Euro elections). Even that EU rule may change in time.
Yes, some people in Northern Ireland will be very uneasy with the way the constitutional debate is going in Great Britain. However, people in Great Britain have been very uneasy with the way the constitutional debate has been going in Northern Ireland, and NI people clearly don’t give a hoot about that. It might be a wake-up call.
57. Jack W
But Jack, you are a Lib Dem. Why all this “Jacobite” nonsense - has the joke not worn a bit thin? Sorry to be a damp squib, but you cannot be the court jester all the time and then expect to be taken seriously.
62 John O. Oh dear, Dear !!
64. http://www.scottishjacobites.com/
Stuart… another SNP policy question for you please.
If Scotland become independent would it adopt the euro at the prevailing rate, remain in currency union with the rest of the UK, or create a Socttish pound?
57 Stuart. “But Jack, you are a Lib Dem.”
More crap from the SNP !! …. I suppose being pompous is SNP policy then. Life isn’t all politics and polls you know (waits for lightening strike from Mike).
The wonder of PB is its diversity .. we can have a little humour and serious comment. They are not mutually exclusive unlike economic sense and SNP policy !!
20 Stuart Dickson states
I think he is quite wrong. Walpole is generally held to be the first Prime Minister. His term of office dates from 1721. Thus there has never been an English Prime Minister. The office of Prime Minister only evolved after the Union was created.
A fiend has sent me this article I think must be in the Sunday Herald but cannot find a link to it to just post the url. It is about someone who went to a Labour Party fringe meeting at the Oban Conference either Friday or Saturday.
——————-
From an Oban resident. Ken MacColl
While I thoroughly agree that The Herald’s present political reportage is inbalanced I have to say that the Conference feature by Tom Gordon today is pure gold. He points out the incredible pomposity of Lord George Foulkes and the aging and diminishing appeal of the Prime Minister and makes good, and I regret to say, fair points about the size and state of The Corran Halls. I was leafleting outside the venue this morning and twitted his Lordship about The Herald as he was going in. He was not a happy man!!!
As the political anorak I am, I intended to smuggle myself into the back of a conference Fringe meeting about Housing at the Caledonian Hotel last night. The event was hosted by Shelter and was well publicised with flyers and posters. Nibbles and wine were available. Jackie Baillie, MSP, was billed to speak and because of some problem was unable to attend but the newly appointed deputy minister for Communities, Des McNulty, MSP, took her place.
The ‘audience” turned out to be four, two delegates, a journalist from Holyrood magazine and myself. I went as an observer and ended up as a participant. Ironically, there were several MSPs in the bar next door, including one from a constituency with horrendous housing problems, making a great deal of noise but there were no more takers to hear Des. I found it an interesting indicator of the value placed on Housing by delegates.
The most striking feature of this conference is the quite incredibly heavy presence of Strathclyde’s finest. Moira Kerr, writing in the P&J said there was so many yellow jackets around that it could have been taken to be the LibDems that were in conference. Obviously she has never been to a LibDem conference but I know what she is saying. I have been to Cup finals at Hampden that had fewer police present. There were even two Police jet skis touring around the Bay. It would be interesting to learn who pays for that. Perhaps we could persuade an MSP to ask a parliamentary question?
I should say I do have friends and not fiends!
71.”I suppose being pompous is SNP policy then”
Jack, Jacobites are pompous!
[67] Many thanks, Stewart. Although I have met the odd “blood and soil” Scottish nationalist…
Actually, I think the S.N.P. will be with us for a while yet - if, when push came to shove, the Quebeckers bottled it when the language issue was on the secessionist side, I think the Scots (with all due respect to the Gaelic) will too. A Nationalist-led regional government inside the Union may strike Scots (and not only Scots) as offering them the best of both worlds.
74 marcia. Sounded better the first time !!
71 Jack W
Sometimes I feel that you fail to strike the correct balance between “humour and serious comment”.
Do you deny that you are a Lib Dem?
Pomposity is actually one of the prime, defining characteristics of the Liberal Democrats (sometimes their only one). Did I prick yours perchance?
[76] And FWIW I’d be strongly tempted to vote for a secessionist candidate for the London Mayoralty if one came along…
75 Andrea. Traitor !! …. consider your appointment as the Jacobite Italian Court in exile fashion consultant terminated !!
….. I couldn’t be arsed with those short black leather kilts anyway !!
78 - Stuart, A hint. Make a reference to John Major and integrity (preferably including Edwina) and watch Jack go……whoooooosh
78. Jack has been labelled as “a tory activist” by the Evening Standard, as a new Labour cheerleader by some tories, a Libdem by some others, then a Blair’s bab* and so on.
In 1992 he voted for Peter Lilley…so you can have an idea about how awful his political choices can be…
72 Peter Pigeon
Quite right (although I understand that it is not universally accepted that even Walpole was the first one).
Can I ask: what was the job title of the head of government in the pre-Union Kingdom of England?
93 King
78 - Stuart, Jack is a Heathite/Clarkeite Tory.
Anyone speculate on the impact that an SNP government will have on the Government’s foreign policy. The use of Scottish Regiments for Blair’s wars could easily be the thing that breaks the Union.
94 Sorry, should have been 83
80. Jack, I’m emigrating to the Court of France (and I’ve to see “Marie Antoinette” next week at the theater… before they beheaded her)
Mike, typo: “vote shares sown above”
Two good polls for the Libs. Suggests perhaps that in the current phase the party’s fortunes are being driven by local events (as they often are). It is often said that local Lib parties just want the national party to stay out of trouble to the workers on the street can get the work done.
While there has been little national Lib action in the news since May, it has at least all been good. I wonder if the drip-drip of local delivery is getting the message through quietly.
Re the Union, I would like to see polls testing what the support for a federal UK would be. I also suspect that a prolonged Unionist capaign by all 3 major parties would swing the English back behind the Union.
And yes, I too would like to be shot of NI! Give them independence and let them decide what they hell they want to do with the Irish question.
Roger: Peter Hain U-turn on Trident. Shame, I liked him a bit too. That’s £28 billion down the drain then…
78 Stuart. You didn’t “prick” my anything, thank you very much !!
Sorry your political antenna are off the mark …. however you’re not the only one … I’ve been libelled as Nulabour, old Labour, Thatcherite, Heathite, SNP, old Liberal, new Liberal, Lib Dem and even a fossilized Whig !!
As a social and economic liberal of impeccable Jacobite credentials I fit no easy category … ain’t life a bitch !!
87.Replied to your post at 47 on the Party funding thread at 48 on that thread. Thanks.
79 -two street in the Isle of Dogs did declare independence in 1920 in responce to the awful housing conditions then.
72 - But didn’t Disraeli style himself the Prime Minister of England at the Congress of Berlin? Or was that Alastair Matlock ;)?
70 Jon
Pro-Euro.
“The SNP is favourable to entry into the Euro, subject to the approval of the public in a referendum, and assuming that economic conditions and entrance requirements at the time are favourable to Scotland’s interests. In advance of entry into the Euro, the SNP favours pegging the Scottish Pound at parity with Sterling.”
http://www.snp.org/independence/questions/government/currency/
91 …but of course everybody knew they were barking.
81/82 John O/Andrea. I thank my former allies for their useful contributions !!
78/85 Stuart/alex. See !!!
MORI using their existing face to face polling method were very accurate until 1992 when together with all other pollsters they got it wrong. It could be that people changed their minds at the last minute something no pollster could anticipate.
In ‘97 ‘01 and ‘05 they got the result right but overestimated Labour’s vote. Easily explained by Labour’s victory being so assured that voters in safe constituencies didn’t bother to vote.
I can see no reason to dismiss MORI’s polls in favour of these phone pollsters who ask who you voted for last time ignore what you tell them then add a notional figure for being an embarrassed Tory unless of course Tony Blair has made you an embarrassed Labour voter……
MORI’s polls deserve to be taken as seriously as they were pre-’92.
If SNP did get into power in Scotland, how quickly could Independence happen? 6 months? A year?
This does seem to me a very real threat to Labour being in power in the UK, becuase with independence there would have to be a new GE without the Scottish seats. Gone would be Gordon and the scottish rump of MPs.
Whilst the Tories want the UK to stay together they actually have most to gain from Scottish Independence. Labour actually needs to keep out the SNP next May, and surely having Brown as PM improves their chances as it stops an anti-blair vote next May? Getting Blair out by May is an imperative to future Labour success.
89 Jack W
For regular readers of PB your Lib Dem preferences are all too often apparent.
Let’s stick to good old-fashioned facts: did you, or did you not, vote Liberal Democrat at the UK general election in 2005?
96. So you believe it credible that a near ten point Labour Lead can become a near Ten point Tory one and back again etc in a month. The nation is therefore totally schizophrenic then in your view.
Andrea. Suggesting Jack voted for Peter Lilley is surely libelous! I think Mike should remove the post as soon as possible!
97 - it is party policy to have a referendum within the first term of an SNP led administration. Voting SNP next year does not mean automatic independence if the SNP take power. The right to call a referendum lies not with Holyrood but Westminster.
I shall see if what is being discussed here is the talk on the doorsteps as i’m off for an afternoon of canvassing.
83 - the most senior ministers were styled Secretaries of State. But only with Walpole does the idea of a single (non-royal) Head of Government really have meaning.
84 Peter Pigeon
The monarch(s) were head of state in pre-Union England, but were they really head of government? AFAIK England was not an absolute monarchy. Magna Carta, parliamentary sovereignty, Habeas Corpus, Bill of Rights, etc, etc - all limiting the power of the monarch.
Worth noting that the SNP now looks to English as allies and stokes the English issue.
45. More likely the Conservative Borders seek to break from a Socialist dominated Scotland and join a Conservative England?
Scotland is riven with inter tribal rivalries -Catholics v. Protestants, Highlanders vs Sassenachs, Germanic East vs Celtic west vs Scandinavian Shetlanders.
The polls are as confusing as the present political climate, can’t make sense of anything.
Scotland: If Scotland became independent, this would mean that the present party political system in England would have to change too. Perhaps the long awaited re-alingnment of the left would actually come about. It would not be beyond the realms of possibility, that Liberals in all three main parties would finally come together. they’ve been itching to do it since 1922! It would also mean that the MacDonald brothers couldn’t win the X-Factor, any chance of it happening soon.
Cameron, you just get the feeling that project Cameron will one day just fall apart.
98 - Stuart, Jack really is an equal opportunity abuser. I’d really stop that line of ‘attack’
My it has been busy here today! Interetsing article on the polls. As for MORI, well it is only MORI but interesting that the Conservatives have slipped ahead.
The most interesting reulst seems to be the ICM possibly England only vote showing a clear lead south of the border. In the context of the Scottish question that will present any non Conservative Government with problems after the next GE. (Assumming of course the Conservatives don’t storm home to victory)
If Scotland went so would Northern Ireland and I’m sure Wales’s ‘Son’s of Owen Glendower’ would get their firelighters out of their wood-sheds…..Nationalist struggles are not often happy affairs and any Tory who thinks it’ll be good for the Tories are missing the bigger picture.
Mboy. Never been a better time to be a Lib Dem. Blair has become a Tory just when the smart money is moving the other way……
The real story by far of this set of polls is the English/Scottish independence question, all the rest is the same old, same old (I can’t think anyone will get very het up by the voting approval figures except the usual furious spinners who infest the site - haven’t you got a council to run or something?).
The independence figures however are conclusive and quite remarkable. They also provide very satisfying reading as I have long thought that devolution could, and should, only end in a loose federation called the UK. As with PR I just see this as a matter of fairness and a federal UK with each government elected under PR would seem to fit the bill nicely, this is one step closer to that eventuality.
101 Marcia
The most difficult thing is going to be actually getting a referendum set up at all. In comparison, actually winning it will be a piece of cake. Which is why of course none of the Unionist parties want it. They will do all in their power to stop one happening, and try their damndest to discredit it in the international community.
re 104 A friend said that the other night “Cameron, you just get the feeling that project Cameron will one day just fall apart.” to which another mate responded - “Yes Probably, like Blair, half way through his third term.”
I think the only poll numbers that ever matter are on voting intention. The problem with non-voting intention type is they they include the views of a huge number of non-voters in a survey. I was raising a similar point on ICM Brown-Cameron figures on Friday.
Where the polls get confusing is that all of them, bar YouGov, use a turnout filter for the voting intention question but don’t use it for other questions. That’s what’s happened with this seemingly contradictory Mori poll. The Tories see a 6% turnaround in their position in relation to Labour yet their leader’s rating show a drop.
If you decide, like Mori, that only the “certain to votes” count for the voting intention numbers then that should be applied to the rest of the survey. They can always show both sets of figures.
98 Stuart. No !! …. my GE voting record is :
79 Con .. 83 Con .. 87 Con .. 92 Con .. 97 Lab .. 01 Lab .. 05 None.
105 John O.
RE 110, Mike I agree. Who cares what people who are not going to vote think? Sounds harsh but there you go.
That said political parties do need to engage more with the public and I suspect drastically cutting the amount of money they have to spend will help.
90. I think I’ve already replied in that thread. The reply was that I don’t think I’m so qualified to give a decent reply!
111. Jack, were all the 3 Con votes for Lilley?
Stuart, your attempts to bait Jack W are a little bit seanT. Sit down and have a Pot Noodle to calm yourself…
Its really upset me to see that the really important issue I raised has gone un-noticed, stopping the Macdonald Brothers.
Iain Dale on his website has tackled a very important issue, speeding. The Danes has produced a very interesting solution, you can see it on http://www.speedbandits.dk.
113. Must have missed it. Anyway don’t worry about the qualified bit, feel free to speculate! Is there another seat in London like Islington South for the Lib Dems. Really thought there was.
114. Oi!
Seeing as I’ve been mentioned, I thought I’d join in.
So the SNP wants to join the euro?
Just think what will ensue, if this occurs. England will still have the pound. So we will have two currencies on the one island.
This means that people will have to change their money at the border. At Berwick on Tweed! How will Scots who work in England (a million of ‘em?) get money back to Scotland without being charged? What about Scots who come to England and want to pull money out of the wall, they will be charged too, right? What about Scottish businesses, how will they feel about charges for shifting money? What about bank accounts now held across the border? Scots who bank with English banks, and vice versa?
This is absurd.
The alternative is that Scotland stays with the pound - or, as the SNP coyly puts it, has a currency ‘pegged to the pound’. i.e. the pound. IF the EU lets Scotland do this (all new accession states are meant to join the euro) then Scotland will have become independent, but England will still set Scottish interest rates, etc. So, in one of the most important ways, Scotland will not be independent. Indeed, as Scottish voters will no longer have political leverage over the Bank of England, an independent Scotland will have less power over her OWN financial affairs.
There are billions of questions like this, pertaining to independence. This isn’t like Czechoslovakia splitting up. A British break-up could be disastrously traumatic. I hope and believe the Scots - and the English - will see the error of such a divorce.
What this country really needs is a revival of Tory fortunes north of the border. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
113 Andrea. No. In 79 Victor Goodhew, he had been MP for St.Albans since 1959 and retired in 83 through ill heath. He only died last month. Goodhew was replcaed by the nations favourite political singer.
St. Albans has in recent decades has a sucession of right wing MP of each party. Goodhew was a Monday Clubber and Lilley was one of Major’s right wing “bastards”. Kerry Pollard was a conservative on social issues too.
My new MP will be either Nuala’s pin up or Mark Field (who he !?!?)
116. Punter, I don’t think there’s another London seat like Islington South in terms of majority (apart Hampstead and Kilburn).
Their list of target in terms of majorities should be:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/liberal-democrat-target-seats/
103 James VI and I was head of governement in both England and Scotland, wasn’t he? He made great use of Cecil, and struggled with the more assertive English parliament, but was certainly in charge of the executive.
The other issues you mention aren’t really relevant in my view, but I am pretty sure that doctrines of parliamentary sovereignty were only accepted after the Union (indeed there is an argument that a Scottish judge is not bound by the doctrine).
118. Jack, Lilley will probably follow you to Westminster/Kensington
Mark Field was a junior shadow minister but I think he was dropped to the backbenches in the latest mini-reshuffle. In recent months he ended up on tabloids for having had an extra-marital affair with A Lister Lizz Truss (who was the 2005 PPC in Calder Valley… not sure if there’s something in the water in CV, but Tory PPC there are allegedly very “active”)
121 Andrea. Mark Field is clearly a legend in his own lunchtime !! I’ll have a gander at the constituency boundaries to see if I’ll be spending my London nights politically with a fine Scottish knight or a Field craft specialist. Such a choice !!
What’s this about “Berlosconi taken ill during speech” story that the BBC are breaking?
122 Been eating sushi?
122. He was appearing to party political manifestation and he didn’t feel well. Now it seems he’s feeling better.
The video of what happened:
http://multimedia.repubblica.it/home/485361
Walpole and his immediate successors were “primus inter pares”, first among equals.
126 f.r. “first among equals.”
There’s a book in there somewhere …. jail probably.
119. Thanks my confusion. Go on speculate as if you were Lord Rennard!
If Scotland were to go it alone, wouldn’t they have the lion’s share of the mineral rights in the north sea?
This kind of thing starts wars. And ends them.
103 1688 had only recently happened. Surely we can see Walpole as sort-of completing the administrative arrangements arising from that. So ‘previously’ means the Stuarts and the Head of Government was for all practical purposes the king.
111 Got is wrong every time, then. Clearly you’re personally responsible for everything that’s gone wrong for the last 37 years.
113 s/3/4