Will Labour be saved by the “90 minute nationalists”?
November 27th, 2006
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Could retaining the Calcutta Cup impede Salmond’s party?
With the weekend ICM poll showing support for an independent Scotland both north and south of the border the conditions for a strong SNP performance in May’s election for the Scottish Parliament could not be better. Judging by the fierce attacks on Alec Salmond’s party by both John Reid and Tony Blair in the two days there can be little doubt that Labour is worried.
There is a Glaswegian friend of mine who has this theory, which I am sure that others have put forward, that the SNP does well in Scotland when the country is having a bad time on the sporting front - particularly against England. At one stage he was planning a PhD thesis on the subject and had assembled a mass of data which appeared to support his case.
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His argument was that if “England have been stuffed at Murrayfield or Hampden Park” then Scottish self-expression has been satisfied and there’s less need for the SNP.
He had an elaborate theory that one of the biggest boosts to the party was the ending of the annual Home Nations Soccer championship in the 1983-84 with its annual Scotland-England match. This took away what had become an annual Scottish ritual which left a void that only the SNP could fill.
It is interesting to correlate the SNP’s performance with the Scotland-England rugby union.
1980 District Council Election - 15.5% - 54 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1982 Regional Council Election - 13.4% - 23 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1983 General Election - 11.7% - 2 seats (Scotland win at Twickenham)
1984 District Council Election - 11.7% - 59 seats (Scotland win at Murrayfield)
1986 Regional Council Election - 18.2 % - 36 seats (Scotland win at Murrayfield)
1987 General Election - 14.0% - 3 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1988 District Council Election - 21.3% - 113 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1989 European Parliament Election - 25.6% - 1 seat (Scotland lose to England)
1990 Regional Council Election - 21.8% - 42 seats (Scotland win at Murrayfield)
1992 General Election - 21.5% - 3 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1992 District Council Election - 24.3% - 150 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1993 (Scotland lose to England)
1994 European Parliament Election - 32.6% - 2 seats
1994 Regional Council Election - 26.8% - 73 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1995 Unitary Authorities Election - 26.1% - 181 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1996 (Scotland lose to England)
1997 General Election - 22.1% - 6 seats (Scotland lose to England)
1999 Scottish Parliament Election - 28.7% - 35 seats (Scotland lose to England)
2000 (Scotland win at Murrayfield)
2001 General Election - 20.1% - 5 seats (Scotland lose to England)
2003 Scottish Parliament Election* - 23.8% - 27 seats (Scotland lose to England)
2004 European Parliament Election - 19.7% - 2 seats (Scotland lose to England)
2005 General Election - 17.7% - 6 seats (Scotland lose to England)
2006 (Scotland win at Murrayfield)
So if there is something in the theory then Labour will be hoping for big improvements the England RFU team. Could Gordon be shouting for the old enemy with the oval ball as well?
Mike Smithson
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As a rugby and politics enthusiast (Lib Dem PPC and play for local rugby team in the lower leagues) I would love to support your friend’s theory Mike. Sadly I think it may be bunkem. An argument for the pub after a few pints I think.
Scotland continued to play England in the Rous Cup until 1989 after the Home Nations championship ended. Most of the games were after the May elections, but in 1986 it was beforehand, England won and the SNP did quite well - which fits in with your theory.
I don’t know how Australia ever succeeded in becoming independent from England if this is true! Well, possibly summer 2005 after the cricket…
I’m not sure on this. Rugby is of fairly marginal interest to many Scots and sadly isn’t played much outwith the Borders and the various private schools. IIRC more Scots play cricket than play rugby.
Football is far mor important and I’m sure I remember reading somewhere that the 1978 World Cup being considered one of the contributing factors to the failure of the 1979 referendum.
If the theory is ‘that the SNP does well in Scotland when the country is having a bad time on the sporting front’
Then surely Labour will cheering FOR the Scots rugby team, not the ‘auld enemy’ as you suggest? Unless they have some sort of death wish…
Tenuous linkage for an article here I have to say…fair play to ya!
Henry G & Andrea from teh previous thread. I did indeed mean Blears. I just had a fit over thso slavery business and completely forgot her name for a moment. A fat lunch and my brain is in calm working order again….
Blears seems to be genuinely popular within the party, seems a everywoman kind of figure, something Harman is not.
4 – And having had the dubious pleasure of being at Murrayfield on Saturday (the highlight being the burger and three doughnuts I had during the game), where me and my friends seemed to be sat in amongst every Aussie in Edinburgh, I don’t fancy our chances of winning the Calcutta Cup.
Outside of South Wales, Rugby Union is a mainly middle class sport, can’t see it will have much effect on SNP/Labour voters in Scotland.
Mike - there is not much danger of England losing to Scotland in the 6 nations.
Yes I am aware that the English team is a shambles but suspect that Chris Took’s team would give Scotland problems!
Mike S. As a neutral ….
May I commend you for the best picture ever to appear on PB !!
It’s also a great credit to you that you managed to get Tabman in the pic (grumpy bast*rd , top left).
7 Max. Scottish cuisine at its’ finest !!
9. So who won the last time they played Icarus ?
11 Jamie. A cruel question !!
Old story, first floated in the context of Anglo-German relations at the Humboldt University in Berlin in 2000, and later written up in, for example,
“The relevance of the “irrelevant”: football as a missing dimension in the study of British relations with Germany”, Peter J Beck, in “International Affairs” vol 79,2 (March 2003) pp 389-411.
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
What next, one wonders?
“Thorn In My Side: Annie Lennox, missed signals, and the decline of the SDP-Liberal Alliance, 1983-87″ ?
12. A post to remember next time Iccy spounts his usual anti Conservative stuff.
The November Mori political monitor figures are now on the website . Those considering Scottish/Welsh Assemblys and devolution/independence an important issue has increased from zero to less than 1% . I think we should get back to talking about the issues that are in the minds of the electorate of this Defence/Immigration/Crime/NHS/Education instead of the daydreams of SNP fantasists .
I think for the first time Ming’s approval rating at -3 is better than Cameron’s at -6 and amongst party supporters + 26 to Cameron’s + 24 .
Mike, I hate to be a damp squib, but is this really the best story you could think up on Scottish politics? We have had so many newsworthy events over the past few days that this proposed rugby/electoral performance theory just seems incredibly facile.
Do you not rate these far more substantive stories?
Momentum builds for SNP as poll puts party 5% up on Labour, in today’s Scotsman
Is this end of United Kingdom?, in today’s Sun
Britain wants UK break up, poll shows, in yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph
I cannot ever remember you - the UK’s biggest political blogger - dedicating a post to Scottish politics before, and I fear that this shows why: you do not know what to say on the topic.
Jack – My plan is to eat so much that I get back to my original prop-like physique – I quite fancy my chances of a place in the Scottish front row after Saturday. Although only weighing in at 10st I’ve got quite a bit of work to do!
I’m sceptical. Celtic beat Man Utd last Tuesday (taking Celtic through to the knock-out stages of the Champions’ League) only for yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph to carry a YouGov poll showing a majority of Scots respondents (and an even larger majority of English respondents) as favouring independence for Scotland.
Has anyone, by the way, got a link to the Tribune review of President Gore…and other things that never happened?
11. When did they play Icarus
. Sadly, I do recall the Calcutta Cup game, as I was there - long drive back to Yorkshire.
On the serious point, it’s a useful reminder that for most people, politics is a side issue and how they vote depends on all sorts of things, some of which have nothing to do with any of the parties contesting the election.
16. Oh dear - Britain’s biggest political blogger fails to take SNP seriously..yet another anti-Scottish conspiracy uncovered…
16 The reality is Stuart that Scottish politics and Independence do not cross the minds more than fleetingly of the vast majority of the people of the UK even those who live in Scotland . The polls you refer to should be taken in the context that people are answering a question in which they have little interest and have not thought about . Should a referundum on Independence ever be held people will vote as they almost always do to maintain the status quo .
16 Stuart. Don’t be a spoil sport …. you sound like a political anorak who’s lost the Tory manifesto and found a Lib Dem focus leaflet !
17 Max. 10st ??? … is that wet through ??
BTW I see that in an effort to win an international England have lined up some tough opposition …. and England aren’t favourites either !! :
http://www.rfu.com/images/ERSC/girls-rugby.jpg
Alex Salmond said yesterday that Labour needs Scottish votes to rule the rest of Britain.
That’s a pretty good argument to talk up both Scottish and English nationalism and to attack Labour.
With Brown or Reid leading Labour, Salmond can make that point even more powerfully.
A Scottish Labour leader can easily be portrayed as a traitor to both Scotland and England. “Brown needs Scottish votes to rule England.” A good soundbite that Salmond would be smart to keep repeating.
Well, leaving aside the fact that Rugby only plays for 80 minutes, not 90, I think the comments that Rugby is a minority sport in Scotland are well taken. Even for France there were empty seats last time at Murrayfield.
A victory against England is all the sweeter for being unexpected.
Neverthless, despite the foaming of the more swivel-eyed separatists, independence seems less likely than a proper reform of the whole UK constitution, which is clearly well overdue.
Fairy nuff.
It is just that I really love PB.com, and think that Mike, together with all his readers and commenters, has created a wonderful online resource and community. PB is the only blog I read regularly nowadays, but today’s weak post just gives me post-cognitive dissonance. It is like: “is that it?” as I gawp in disbelief. I had been really looking forward to this post when Mike flagged its imminent appearance yesterday morning.
Oh well, as Why Don’t You (?) said, I’ll “go and do something better instead” for the time being.
Enjoy your sport/politics chat
24 Cicero. It sounds as if Max is intent on filling the empty seats single handed !!
[23] Any leader of the UK needs votes in Scotland to win, which is why Cameron has a bit of a job on to get elected- he doesn’t have enough, at least at the moment.
[26] Ten stone!!! He has a long way to go before that bully stops kicking sand at him. He should get down to Rapido for a double Fish- every night for a year!!
(worked for me, anyway- trouble is getting rid of it when you stop propping)
27. Blair would have won in 1997 and 2001 without any votes in Scotland, as would Thatcher in 1983 and 1987 (and possibly 1979 - I haven’t checked that out but it would be close). Only two of the last six - or seven? - elections have turned on Scottish votes.
29. The tories won 22 seats in Scotland in 1979. They had 339 seats overall in a 635 Parliament. So without the 22 Scottish seats, they would have been 1 short of a mjaority.
[29] Ok then- most of the time a party needs votes across the UK to win, and it is much harder to win without votes in Scotland.
[30] Andrea- a modern marvel- does it again! You sure you wouldn’t grace the Pb.com party with your presence?
Stuart Dickson I really wonder. I know you are a Scottish Nationalist - and therefore by definition not as deeply annoying as any Tory, but can you calm down? How on earth you will get through to 3rd May in one piece I don’t know. This site is only great if we all turn out political hectoring down a wee bit…
25. A huffy exit reminiscent of dear Roger’s a while back…which thankfully turned out not to be permanent (from an entertainment value perspective)…
Richard – I can assure you that plenty people in Scotland were cheering on Man Utd when they played Celtic!
And to be quite honest very few people would argue that Celtic (or indeed Rangers) are particularly potent symbols of Scottishness.
Cicero – I’m only 5ft 6 so it’s beautifully proportioned - 10st of prime Border beef! I was about 14 ½ stone in my heyday. I’ve got a hot date with a fitness instructor on Saturday and I’m not sure if she’ll be terribly impressed with ‘Project Heart Disease’!
This was quite a witty story but Stuart has a fair point. This is the first article about Scotland i can remember and its a shame its not taking the issue a bit more seriously. However perhaps Stuart or Marcia or Max might provide an article soon. However any nationalists should expect howls of outrage from the unionist fanatics on here.
Talking of Unionist fanatics Mark Senior is making me laugh again
“I think we should get back to talking about the issues that are in the minds of the electorate of this Defence/Immigration/Crime/NHS/Education instead of the daydreams of SNP fantasists ” says Mark. Not realising that people in Scotland and Wales think about all these issues and come to the conclusion that looking after our own affairs might be a good idea.
There was poll in the Western Mail a few months ago that put support for “independence within my lifetime” at over 50% .
Mark Senior does seem to get very uptight whenever there is any discussion of these topics and fails to understand that what motivates most nationalists is the desire to have a strong successful economy from which to improve public services cultural and civic life.
For the LDs on here.. why Did Charlie Kennedy make Jenny Tonge a peer? Was it part of that confernce chooses peers debate you had a couple of years ago, some convention that ex-MPs get peerages or is she generally well regarded despite, what even then, was a record of saying “controversial” things re Israel.
As far as i can tell, Kennedy sacked her, attacked her, then elevated her.. why?
31. Theres pb.com party?
Damn you!
34. Max is that project a new Labour plan of some sort? Is there a heart disease Tsar?……….
34.”I’m only 5ft 6 so it’s beautifully proportioned ”
You’re Alan Duncan and I claim you!
39 Andrea. Much
39 PMSL!
35 Opinion pollson topics that the vast majority of the population have no interest in are not meaningful . I don’t get uptight about Independence being discussed on here from time to time as with any other issue of interest to us anoraks but I do like to keep a sense of proportion . I see Plaid have failed to field a candidate in next week’s Conwy byelection . I presume that part of Wales would be excluded from your Independent Wales as you can’ be bothered to seek their votes .
OT. Interesting piece in the New York Times on the demise of liberal Republicans in New England :
http://nytimes.com/2006/11/27/us/politics/27repubs.html?hp&ex=1164690000&en=e36db6538fd88d41&e1=5049&partner=homepage
As a Scottish Conservative member there is a huge amount of frustration within Scotland not about the union but just the state of politics. This frustration may well lead to the SNP winning seats because they are different not because of their message.
In essence the frustration goes like this. Why despite Scotland being awash in natural resources are business taxes higher in Scotland than England and the transportation links a disaster? There is still no motorway joining Scotland to England or Edinburgh to Glasgow!!! While money is spent on Scotland too little of it has gone into investments for the future. Instead money goes on drinks, drugs and pointless public setor jobs.
Labour and probably its Lib Dem allies will be hit the question is how much and where will it go. The Tories in Scotland suffer from a bad image. I believe the Greens will do well and given the problems of the SSP you may well see the BNP making progress. In summary the Scottish elections are wide open.
The detailed figures for the Yougov and ICM polls are on the website . Unmentioned in the debate on here is that Yougov found that the majority of Scots would reject Independence in favour of the status quo by 50 to 31 % the remainder being don’t knows or wont votes .
44. You sound like many Scots Cons I know.
Its too long for the Cons to blame a Thatcher hangover - there are too possible ways out of this as far as I can see.
1) We need a McCameron
2) Once DC gets in - he should highlight to Scotland the ways in which they could join the glorious revolution - if only they would vote blue.
36 - Nearly all MPs who stand down (and who want them) are given peerages.
42: yes, I won’t comment on the specific issue of independence as I’m one of those with no very strong views myself (I do understand that others do!), but I think Mark makes a good point on this type of poll. If you ask people their opinion they’ll give it to you, but it would be good if they were also asked how important they thought the issue on a scale of 1 to 10.
It’s not likely to happen, though, since issue polls are usually commissioned by someone trying to prove something, and ‘yeah, but I don’t think about that stuff much’ is not what they want to hear. So on anything from hunting to the WLQ to Europe, it’s generally worth keeping Mark’s point in mind, however lopsided the response may seem to be.
47: I don’t think you’re remotely correct, PTB. Can andrea arbitrate?
If Alex Salmond is clever and the SNP comes out on top in May he will demand agreement from the Scottish Liberal Democrats, subject to its successful implementation in the local elections, to change the Holyrood voting system to the Single Transferable Vote.
Hoist by their own petard they would have to agree to it, thereby giving the SNP the hope of achieving an overall majority, or something very close to it, in the future.
47- I’ve no axe to grind here, just genuinely interested- to the LDs give all ex-MPs peerages then?
If so, that policy is going to be tested severely when the current crop retires/are defeated/whatever. I suppose that’s one of the consequences of relative success!
49- i thought PTB was speaking only about LD ex-MPs..
4: Absolutely re 1978 World Cup. The SNP, who’d been on a high the previous year, collapsed dramatically in the polls at Labour’s expense. Scottish self-esteem had, alas, taken something of a battering after the Argentina debacle, and this may well have contributed to putting people off home rule.
8: Outside south Wales _and_ the Scottish Borders, where rugby has traditionally been the working man’s game (Hawick used to have - may still have - four feeder clubs, one of which was called ‘Hawick Trades’). But the Scottish Borders is LD/Con territory, not the central-belt, football-loving Lab/SNP battleground.
27: Blair would have won in 2005 as well. For all the fact that the Tories outpolled Labour in England last year, Labour obtained a majority of English parliamentary seats. (Scotland contributed 23 to Labour’s overall UK majority (counting Mr Speaker as a Labour MP), Wales contributed 20, England 41, and Northern Ireland -18.)
Just got some more details of the YouGov poll (sent to Labour MPs by Harriet Harman’s supporters). Apparently only 15% said they’d not heard of Harriet, while 28% hadn’t heard of Peter Hain and over 30% (details not specified) for all the others. 53% said it was important that the deputy should be someone they’d heard of. It’s possible to have heard of someone but still not have an opinion about them, so the number who actually have a view on the candidates is probably quite small.
The figures seem to reinforce the assumption that HH’s good showing partly reflects name recognition, but also that name recognition is important. Presumably we’ll see all the serious candidates getting more name recognition when we get into it.
The Sun tells us that The Old Emperor still can’t bring himself to mention that little country he passes through on the way from Cowley Street to Scotland.
Lib-Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell said: “Once devolution has bedded down in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland it would be entirely appropriate to consider the role of MPs from all three countries at Westminster.”
You may recall his other great statement when asked about him, as an MP for a Scottish constituency, voting on English matters, he said that his constituents hadn’t raised the question with him so he didn’t think it an issue. And anyway his constituents had relatives south of the Border.
Shortly after this he said he looked forward to more co-operation between Cardiff, Belfast and Edinburgh.
Spot the missing country.
50 Looking at the interchange of votes between parties in the constituency and regional lists I am not sure that STV would help the SNP . Out of 77 non SNP voters who would have voted differently on the regional list only 20 would have changed to SNP and 57 to other parties .
56 That refers to the detailed figures on the ICM site on their latest poll .
49 Nick P. Figure on this are hard to find … even for Andrea !! open challenge
Certainly the proportion of retiring “routine” Lib Dem MP peers is high. For both Labour and Tory Cabinet ministers it goes with the rations. Former Minister of State MPs might get a peerage or a Rt Hon. Retiring Tory MPs of some standing usually got a K if they hadn’t already got one. It’s even said the odd end of term Labour MP might end up on the red benches to allow a parachutee to drop in. Shirley Knot !!
55 B2W. “Spot the missing country.”
Is this from the Tory HQ Christmas Quiz ? …. or is it Tory policy to rename England as “Spot”? It isn’t too clever though …… it could get confusing :
Spot the Dog .. Spot the Ball .. Spotted Dick .. On the Spot Fines .. Teenage Spots.
55. He was clearly referring to England, Scotland, and Wales, since Northern Ireland is not a country.
55. It is also a stated objective for the three devolved administrations to work closer together for matters of devolved and mutual interest, so it is quite natural for the UK government, based in London, not to be involved.
56. But you are assuming that voting patterns would be the same under STV as they would be under the list system, when it is quite unlikely that that would be the case.
60 Chrisco. Wales is a principality !! … and historically part of England !!
Rushes into nuclear bunker.
ps.
It is important to remember that Independence for England will mean independence for Northern Ireland or a United Ireland.
How that will play out, I wouldnt like to guess.
Either way, it would probably involve a lot of violence. Perhaps the Scottish Army could send a peace keeping force.
Can’t someone put this into some kind of graph and show any correlation - I could do it on paper but not on PC…
55 Blue2. I agree with you totally that the role of England’s MPs needs to be looked at equally, wrt the Westminster functions with the way one looks at the Scottish, Welsh and Six Counties MPs. There is certainly no place left for differential population-weightings between countries, and the idea that Ulstermen and women need any less MPs per head to deal with their defence interests, than do (say) the Welsh, is totally ridiculous.
What I am NOT attracted to as a result of this argument though is a seperate ‘English’ Parliament.
Why do we need two full-time legislatures (plus offices) anyway? Why not have three days per week in Holyrood and two at Westminster? Why not cut down the holidays?
63. Correct on all fronts Jack - though neither precludes it from being a country!
62 No Chrisco I am not assuming anything just questioning your assumption that STV would help the SNP for which you gave no evidence .
54. If only we in NI had never heard of Peter Hain……
By the way Nick, he look to be in the pig swill over his appointment of a Victims Commissioner in NI. Reading into it he could well get panned although I’ve been led to believe that he has a lot of friends at Westminster right now suggesting that, well its Northern Ireland he had to kind of go ahead.
I appriciate that you cant say too much in detail but a quick question. Hain’s political future? Is this review a serious problem or not?
64. I am not sure if “English independence” is much of a realistic political vehicle, but you make a serious point about Northern Ireland: should Scotland become independent the argument in favour of Northern Irish unionism would indeed be badly damaged.
68. STV could help the SNP because it is possible to obtain an overall majority without getting 50% of the vote under STV, whereas it is more or less impossible under the current Scottish system.
67 Crisco. Emerging briefly from bunker
Apologies to Celtic cousins about trollish comment @ 63 !!
59. Spot the Dog .. Spot the Ball .. Spotted Dick .. On the Spot Fines .. Teenage Spots.”
perhaps Jack W is ’spot-on’?
In which case we must await the new ultra-Right-on web-site for hoodies, http://www.Spot-it.com/ , companion to To$$er TV’s http://www.sortit.org.uk/ !
Yes or Labour too for that matter but not with the 30 -35% they are both currently polling .
Re 46
The Scottish Tories have got to stop feeling sorry for themselves and start fighting for the votes. They have a great opportunity this year but are letting the SNP take their votes. If they do not get more seats this year they have no-one to blmae but themselves.
70. Not really Chrisco, it depends on how the people vote in each territory in question and lo and behold there’s a fairly clear Unionist majority in Northern Ireland for mainatining the link as its constructed currently.
The Scots & Welsh can decide how far they want that link to go, if at all.
Chester its fairly simple. If Northern Ireland is offered up to a United Ireland before theres a vote in favour amongst the people of NI it’ll be messy and frankly I’d take to the streets.
The day there is a majority in favour of a United Ireland, then I fully expect unionists to either depart the place or start to work in their new state, I wouldnt expect too many issues.
24
Obviously 80 minutes scheduled and 10 minutes injury time … but what about half time. Can Scots nationalism on and off like that?
73. Whoops that’s http://www.sort-it.org.uk/ . The RNIB youth wing have asked me to let it be known that they do not wish to be associated with young Chameleons.
[77] Well before this professionalism nonsense, there was only a 2 minute turn around.
69: It’s barely registered in Westminster, Yokel. Because of my interest I look out for any news item that mentions Peter, so I am vaguely aware of it and remember you posting about it before, but I can’t recall details and nobody has ever mentioned it in my hearing. One of the arguments for Northern Irish devolution is that it’s impossible to overstate how little attention is paid to the province in Westminster: people are better-informed about the problems of, say, Iran. So it’s hard to imagine that any controversy in Northern Ireland will affect anyone’s future here at all.
I asked to serve on the NI Select Committee for a while because the peace process seemed to me so important, but I found that we spent all their time chewing over things like upgrades to the railway track, and the non-NI members of the committee were mostly not interested and moved on rapidly. Please don’t think I’m saying this derisively - it’s a criticism of how things are here, since we *ought* to be more interested in Northern Ireland as it’s part of the UK. I think over-exposure to intransigent factional politicians (I won’t name them as it’s ‘be nice to intransigents month’ but you know who I mean!) over the years that has simply made MPs here just switch off from the entire province. It’s sad and it shouldn’t be so, but it is.
79 Five minutes, says a one-time referee.
[81] Yes Ok-
NEW THREAD - Was the Independent conned on the Harman Poll?
76. I was talking about the intellectual argument for the Union Yokel, and by any standard Scotland, with which Northern Ireland folk feel a much stronger affinity than England, leaving the Union would damage the argument for unionism.
74. Yes, obviously it applies to Labour too - I was not suggesting that STV as a system would explicitly favour the SNP, but the SNP need an overall majority if they want to push through an independence referendum.
52 - I was indeed refering to the Lib Dems.
Recent examples include Burnett, Chidgey, Cotter, Jones, Kirkwood, Michie, Tyler and Tonge.
80. Nick, wouldn’t it be a good idea therefore for Labour to stand in Northern Ireland (and the Lib Dems, and for the Tories to do it properly)? It’s perhaps not too surprising that not that many members are that bothered when there are no parliamentary colleagues on their benches from there, nor will there ever be under the policy. The people of Northern Ireland get “intransigent factional politicians” partly because they vote for them, but also because they’re not given the same choice as the rest of the country.
Chrisco Clearly you have no defence to offer for the Emperor.
Mind you there is one benefit you must thank your leader for. Never again will the LibDems be referred to the sandal brigade.
Now its the carpet slipper volunteers.
No defence other than a statement of the facts - the three countries being referred to were clearly England, Scotland and Wales, and the three devolved administrations have spoken of a desire to co-operate on devolved matters. None of your nonsense please.
58. “Nick P. Figure on this are hard to find … even for Andrea !! open challenge”
Jack, the problem is that it’s not easy to figure out with MPs wanted a Peerage and who not.
Looking at Libdems retirements in 2005, 7 MPs stood down (I don’t consider Marsden). 6 received a Peerage (Richard Allan is the only one not created a Peer, but I think he wasn’t interested).
5 Libdems were defeated at the election. Brian Cotter become a Peer. Rendell, Daughty and Green are contesting the next GE again.
Parmjit Singh Gill didn’t get a Peerage.
On Labour and Conservatives sides, if all MPs standing down/being defeated want a Peerage, they won’t probably enough places anyway!
44 - I think one of the reasons the Tories are so lowly north of the border is that they are completely out of touch - have you not heard of either the M8 or the M74?
58 - Not all retiring Liberals get a peerage. Still waiting for Lord Thorpe of Exmoor to be appointed!
If the SNP make progress in Scotland, it will be due to Salmond being back at the helm. Bright, witty, personable, a big hitter… everything Swinney was not.
85 Even you can’t complain about, for example, Archie Kirkwood.
Was it 1983 he was first elected? And Chairman of a Select Cttee for goodness knows how many years. It undermines such case as you have to paint with such a broad brush.
90. The M8 has a gap in it near Coatbridge where it becomes an ‘A’ road, similarly the M9/M874; the M74 doesn’t link up with the M6 - again, it’s dual carriageway near the border.
92 - I imagine that Kirkwood was offered a peerage in order to give Michael Moore the chance to have the winnable borders seats following boundary review.
86: You’re making the assumption that if the three main GB parties ran in NI they’d win one or more seats. I can’t see that happening.
86 - the Alliance party are the sister party of the LDs in NI. Note also that former Alliance leader, Lord Alderdice takes the Lib Dem whip in the Lords. I don’t know what the links between Labour and the SDLP are these days.
91 - agree with SBS. At a public meeting on Friday in Dundee Alex Salmond was very entertaining and the large crowd of 400 even gave him a standing ovation twice. Not something you see often in Dundee!
It is quite obvious he is far and away the most popular politician we have in Scotland at the present time. I am looking forward to the debates against the other party leaders in the election campaign if they have them . The only one with a bit of warm and is quite witty is Annabelle Goldie.
Mark Senior…
Yes quite correct we are not fighting the Kimmel Bay seat. We could not find a candidate of sufficient quality and we got burned previously fielding candidates in by-elections who were not that good. Even in these times of rising membership, and unprecedented income we still have to focus our resources.
People in Kimmel bay will of course have a very high quality candidate from Plaid in the assembly.Phil Edwards the winner of the last by-election held in Conwy county. Given the level of support we have had from Kimmel bay for the hospital campaigns I would expect a decent vote.
95/6. That’s true, but it’s not the same. Besides, the Alliance Party is no more likely to win a seat than the Lib Dems (well, maybe a bit, but not much).
It’s not just winning MP’s, it’s having activists and members in the province and potentially getting councillors and members of the Assembly elected - both of which would be a lot more likely than gaining an MP because of the electoral system. Even if they’re not elected, it gives people the choice and proves that Northern Ireland is not another country, and that they are national parties.
97 - in fact it is clear that Salmond is First Minister material. If this was a Presidential election, he’d walk it.
Should Salmond become First Minister, the challenge will be working with parties who support the union. And the danger is becoming the establishment in Scotland - something which could really shaft the SNP in the long term.
96. The SDLP is considered a ’sister party’ of Labour, and that is given as the main reason why Labour don’t organise in N.I. SDLP MPs take the Labour whip.
101. That may be the reason given, but I’m not convinced of its validity. Do Labour members view the SDLP in that way? do Labour MP’s? Perhaps so, but it can’t be healthy for a party (Labour) that aspires to govern for all - whether or not they do - to choose as a sister party one that is on one side of the nationalist/unionist divide.
The biggest problem in Northern Ireland politics is the way in which communities split their vote according to background and the party structure reinforces (or reflects) that. The British mainland parties could play a part in breaking down that division by simply being there - without all the history the other parties inevitably bring to the table, whether willingly or not.
I assume that this article is intended as a bit of fun, and not as serious analysis. If nothing else, I could not see any correlation in the data presented, and I’ve never been convinced that something as peripheral as sport (let alone such a minority sport as rugby is in Scotland) has any significant impact on voting.
Indeed, it has occasionally been the contrary of this article’s theory that has been argued, that the SNP benefit when Scotland do well at sport. The failure of the devolution referendum in 1979 and the bottom falling out of the SNP support at roughly the same time was in part explained by some as a consequence of Scotland’s humiliating exit of the 1978 World Cup.
102. The diagnosis in your second paragraph is correct, but I honestly can’t see the GB parties breaking down the divisions. Certainly there’d be no effect on DUP or Sinn Fein voters, who, between them, make up almost 60% of the electorate: the former would be suspicious of GB parties (on the perfidious-Albion-always-selling-us-down-the-river principle); the latter see themselves as Irish-not-British, and would never vote for a British party. The Irish-not-British factor might apply to some SDLP voters too; in any case, why vote for a British party if you are a (consitutional) nationalist? That leaves Alliance, the UUP and the smaller unionist parties, who between them make up 25% of the electorate - not enough, I’d say, to make a big difference, and almost all from one side of the community divide.
53 - Aidan, sadly Hawick Trades are no more. Although they still have four feeder teams - Hawick Harlequins, Hawick Linden, Hawick YM and Hawick PSA.
105. Very sorry to hear that. I remembered Hawick Harlequins and Hawick YM among the other feeder teams, but couldn’t remember the other(s). What does the ‘PSA’ stand for?
106 - Pleasant Sunday Afternoon. I think they are an under-16 team. The Hawick senior team are doing pretty badly at the moment and it’s possible only one Border club (Melrose) will be in the top league next season.
104. I’m working on the (admittedly naive and possibly absurdly optimisitc) principle that not everyone in Northern Ireland votes and will always vote according to their view on the consitutional position alone, or at least wouldn’t do given the chance and enough time, that the issues that divide the parties in GB are also of interest to the voters in NI and that some of them could be prised away from the traditional Northern Ireland parties.
It might be a long term game with little immediate success, but other parties have played that game and it has sometimes paid off in the end. I don’t pretend that it would be the whole answer, but by the same token, surely it wouldn’t do any harm (retires to bunker awaiting comment explaining that the Sinn Fein vote will never forgive the Lib Dems for Lloyd-George’s treaty etc etc).
Re. 34, Rangers supporters by any chance?
If this is some sort of ‘who’s the slimmest’ competition, I’m five foot five and a half, and weigh just eight and a half stone (though that’s only because I walk over twenty miles a week).
The same figures for Plaid Cymru, please!