YouGov boost for Harman’s deputy bid
November 27th, 2006-
Poll suggests that she could win 15% more votes for Labour
According to a YouGov poll reported in the Independent this morning 15% of voters said they would be “more likely” to support Labour if Harriet Harman was deputy leader.
Hilary Benn was in second place on this measure with 12% saying they would be more likely to vote Labour but none of the other contenders got into double figures. Hazel Blears - the party chair and other potential female candidate - was, according to the report, down at 7%.
It’s not clear from the newspaper who commissioned the survey and it might well have been a private poll produced by the Harman camp. If it was then we need to see the full detail of how the survey was carried out before coming to firm conclusions.
Political gamblers who risked their money on the Liberal Democrat leadership will recall how contenders tried to influence the race with private surveys and that by asking a different range of questions it is possible to come out with different results. With private polls the only information that’s likely to be made available is that which supports the line of the person or organisation paying.
Whatever this poll could put University of York graduate, Harman, into the favourite’s slot in the betting.
After the 2005 General Election Harman became a Minister of State in the Department for Constitutional Affairs with responsibilities including constitutional reform, legal aid and court processes.
In March this year she relinquished her Ministerial responsibilities for electoral administration and reform of the House of Lords to avoid any potential conflict of interest after her husband, the Treasurer of the Labour Party, Jack Dromey, announced that he would be investigating a number of loans made to the Labour Party which had not been disclosed to party officers.
Maybe a women doing well in the deputy race could prompt Betfair to open a betting market. So far the betting exchange has ignored repeated pleas from punters. Come on Betfair.
Mike Smithson
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Or 85% wouldn’t say they would be more likely to vote Labour with Deputy Harman. Is that compared to Prescott? Hardly a resounding endorsement.
How many questioned could actually put a name to her photo or say what her job is or what she stands for? I doubt it is many. How many think Hilary Benn is the name of a woman? Harman is a woman with better name recognition that Blears. Why should that mean she is any better?
I find this survey totally bizarre - how anyone would want to vote for this dreadful individual.
Her sole campaigning premise seems to be that people should vote for her as a woman. As you’d expect, I have little time for such tokenism.
Indeed, I hope David Cameron doesn’t draw the wrong conclusions from this survey and push on further with the unwise “positive discrimination” strategy. With his own personal ratings falling, as Mike Smithson has reported, perhaps it’s time to ditch the “A list” and push for a more mainstream policy programme instead?
“Poll suggests that she could win 15% more votes for Labour” - the poll doesn’t suggest anything of the sort. This would only be accurate if the poll suggested that (i) 15% of voters would go from being absolutely certain not to vote Labour, to being absolutely certain to support them, and (ii) that no voters would be less likely to vote Labour.
Mind you, the Independent’s headline “Voters want Harman to be next Labour deputy leader” is also entirely unsupported by the evidence presented.
This survey does not smell right. The Indie’s headline is completely over the top. For a change.
First time poster on here, but I’d like to agree strongly with Eleanor’s comments on here - DC has successfully built a poll lead and discredited Blair-Brown, but now it’s high time for some real Conservative policies.
4 - absolutely. The only thing we can draw from this survey is that few people understand the issue, or the candidates. No conclusion can be drawn, can they…?
I would despair for British politics if Harman were DPM - Prescott would seem a good option in comparison. Indeed I’m not sure I’d like to see any of the Labour women in that position - could tolerate Beckett I guess.
Hilary doesn’t seem too bad - he’s “cuddly”.
3. I’m surprised Eleanor is so dismissive of Harriet, given her excellent breeding.
What? The woman is the political equivalent of candy floss. If this survey is true then the British electorate have lost all credibility. Harumph.
As Mystic Moon hints, I suspect this is just down to name recognition. We need to remind ourselves how few politicians are recognised by the electorate. As the deputy leadership gets a little more publicity I would expect these figures to start to reflect the opinions of sane human beings and more serious candidates start to gain a bit of credibility with the voters.
Out of interest, were any candidates seen as being less of an assett than John Prescott?
6 - Adam - welcome aboard!
Harriet’s USP:
“My name begins with ‘H’ and I’m not Hodge, Hain, Hilary of Hazel?”
11. Watch out for Geoff Hoon’s candidacy Zebidee.
eleanor, if you don’t agree with the a list, how do you encourage the houses of parliament to be more representative of society. Indeed if the a list helps prevent descrimination against women then surley this is a good thing?
O/T
Another Scottish opinion poll published today, this time in the Scotsman
http://news.scotsman.com:80/index.cfm?id=1754062006
I am beginning to feel sorry for the girl - and she is an alum of the University that pays my salary. I think we are underestimating the gender issue and Labour’s need to soften Gordon’s image. Whatever she must be better than Hazel.
Mike Smithson
Mike S. I understand the Daily Telegraph poll will be out on Tuesday, barring any major news story like Harriet Harman scrathing her arse ! …. Oopps bottom …. breeding, don’t you know !
No, Sorry, this poll doesn’t help. I still need the proper YouGov poll. I am suffering from withdrawal symptoms.
That said interesting article as ever Mike.
“If this survey is true then the British electorate have lost all credibility.” lol, Cookie - very Brecht.
Welcome aboard, adam - doesn’t sound as though we’ll often agree, but it’s good to see a new contributor.
15.” I think we are underestimating the gender issue and Labour’s need to soften Gordon’s image”
It’s a bit funny that when there’s the find someone to soften Gordon’s image, everyone always think about a woman in general as all women have a soft style. Last week there was a piece in the Guardian covering it and they compared Hilary Benn with his predecessor. And I suppose many would agree with the piece that the one with the softest style isn’t Clare (even if she’s a woman). There’s a decent group of female politicians who aren’t best known for their “soft” style (many of the pre 1997 intake in all parties).
Surprised at the hostility to Harman here this morning. Before the terrible blunder she made on lone parent benefits (she should have thrown Blair’s ridiculous proposal back at him or resigned) she had a great future, especially given her historic credentials. The public school education of her kids was only an issue because of Labour bigotry. I think she would make a decent deputy PM, after a decade of the most preposterous machismo in the leader/deputy duo. Consequently, the liberal in me wants Harmen or Benn (after Hain disqualified himself by backing Trident II); while the Liberal in me wants Blears…
18 Nick P. Morning young Nicholas …. as a thrusting and trusted consigliere to Don Peter Hain do you have any insider comments on your Don’s leaked proposal than any future parking infractions by the Russian Embassy will result in Putin receiving an asses head on his pillow …. or words to that effect !!
21: Yes, I was impressed by that actually. About time someone stood up to the bullies.
20.”The public school education of her kids was only an issue because of Labour bigotry. ”
I don’t think she sent them to a public school in the end. She sent one to a grant-maintained school and another to a grammar school.
And I don’t think it’s Labour bigotry. I believe that Labour position at the time was against selective education, so sending your kids to a selective school looks quite hypocrite to me
Peter Hitchens was at York University at the same time as Harriet Harman, and always claimed that they were the only two students who didn’t take drugs. So what’s your view on that one David?
No insider comments, Jack, but I thought Peter Hain’s comments pretty appropriate. While I support him for the deputy, I think Harriett’s entitled to be pleased with the poll and the second finding that 23% have ‘warm feelings’ towards her (odd phrasing for a poll, but there you go). When there’s a proper deputy election campaign, probably in May, we should get firmer and quite possibly different findings. As others have said, it’s probably mostly name recognition, and I doubt if more than 35-40% of the electorate could recognise any of the candidates from a photo, let alone have any feelings about them - this forum is unusual in having a view on everyone. I’m reminded of the 12-year-old politics fan who I was showing round the Commons, who suddenly said to a passer-by, “Hey! Aren’t you Andy Burnham, the Minister of State in the Home Office?” It made both his and Andy’s day.
Details of today’s Scotsman/ICM poll:
1st vote, FPTP (change from 2003):
1. SNP 34% (+10)
2. Labour 29% (-6%)
3. LD 17% (+2%)
4. Con 13% (-4%)
*SSP 3% (not relevant - not standing in 1st vote)
2nd vote, PR:
1. SNP 31% (+10%)
2. Lab 26% (-3%)
3. LD 19% (+7%)
4. Con 12% (-4%)
5. Green ? (?)
6. SSP 4% (-3%)
Projected seats:
1. SNP 43 (+16)
2. Lab 38 (-12)
3. LD 25 (+8)
4. Con 14 (-4)
5. Grn 5 (-2)
oth 4 (-6)
Potential coalitions? (Currently Lab + LD = 67 ; Maj=2)
SNP + LD = 68 (Maj=3)
SNP + LD + Canavan + MacDonald + Turner = 71 (Maj=6)
SNP + LD + Grn = 73 (Maj=8)
Lab + LD + Con = 77 (Maj=12)
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1754062006
The critical thing here is that the SNP are pulling ahead in the 1st vote - this is the absolutely critical one if they wish to form a government. That 3% SSP voters in the 1st vote is also a nice bonus for the SNP to try to claim.
Trouble ahead for Nicol Stephen, Deputy First Minister, Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats… and the butt of cruel George Foulkes jokes:
Deputy first minister faces police inquiry over expenses
I’ve got a stinking cold (doubtless why my comments yesterday were a bit “off”) but Eleanor cheered me up… reminded me of the Labour left in the 1970s and 1980s who greeted every poll reverse with a demand for “real socialism” - and Tony Benn
[25] So Labour have found their William Hague, then - is he going to be the star of this autumn’s Conference
?
13 Red Flag: But surely previous posts from Eleanor demonstrate she does not want to make it more representitive, but consist of natural leaders of our nation.
‘representative’. Again demonstrating my ‘oik’ credentials.
Stuart – there is also an interesting piece in the Herald this morning that suggests that Labour may lose Glasgow Council and the best case scenario is they will retain it by 3-4 seats. It was one I was pretty sure thay would hang onto.
Of course the really big story in Scottish Politics is the defection of two councillors to the Tories on D&G council!
In regards to details of the poll being published, I was under the impression that if some of the polls details were leaked then Polling Commission rules started that the polling company had to release all data.
Think Nick P is correct - this is simply down to name recognition. Harman was in the media recently over her summoning the US Ambasador to demand US soldiers appeared at hearing for friendly fire deaths. (which always seemed above her pay grade and a publicity stunt designed to raise her profile).
Cruddas is much more likely to win.
26 Green figures look a little low but SNP and LibDems can feel happy with these figures and Labour and Conservatives disappointed .
Harriet would be a good choice. It’s not just being a woman but the work she has done on women’s issues. Electorally it would be great to have a woman why not Harriet? A very supportive article by Jackie Ashley some months ago in the Guardian. It’s got to be between Hilary and Harriet and both would be unstoppable in combination with Brown.
I don’t want to bring in a partisan note but I’m sure that environmentalists will have noted that Cameron is now in Iraq following his successful trips to India, Afghanistan, Norway, Ethiopia and the US. If he fails in politics he could always open a travel agency.
29 Max - “Of course the really big story in Scottish Politics is the defection of two councillors to the Tories on D&G council!”
LOL.
The Lord loves a tryer (sp.?) Max! I assume they were “Independents” previously? (Cannot find a weblink.)
I do not doubt that you Tories are doing a bit better in the south of Scotland - please, please kick out that smug LD Michael Moore from Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk at the next UK GE - if there ever is another UK GE in Scotland of course
But you cannot be happy with these numbers from ICM, historically the Scottish pollster most favourable to the Tories?
Would you be happy to enter into a “Save the Union” grand coalition with the Labourites and LabDims? Looks perfectly feasible on paper, although I understand that it is LD party policy to approach the biggest party first.
“Lab + LD + Con = 77 (Maj=12)”
22, surely, for this most Paisly-Adamsite of creatures?
Stuart, “Potential coalitions: Lab + LD + Con”
Are you taking the piss?
Lab + LD + Grn is more likely than that! But realistically, I think the LD + Lab world is over in Scotland. Nuclear power, nuclear weapons, and all the rest would make it impossible. The LDs would demand no nuclear in Scotland as price of coalition, and London will never allow Jack McConnell to do that.
34 Zebidee
Nope.
The arithmetic is very simple:
129 seats (- independent Presiding Officer)
therefore 65 votes needed to command a majority
Lab (38) + LD (25) + Con (14) = 77
77 - 65 = 12
Lab/LD/Con coalitions, to keep out the SNP, are not uncommon in Scottish councils, eg. Perth and Kinross (until 2 years ago) and Dundee
YouGov are the most Tory friendly pollster in recent years and IIRC were the only pollsters to get it right last time.
I’m really not concerned – heard it all before in 2003 and I’ve not seen or heard anything that makes me think we’ll lose support next time out - as I’ve said all along I think we’ll do marginally better than last time and poll around 16-17% on both votes and gain a couple of seats.
As you say we will probably do disproportionately well in the South of Scotland but I don’t expect much progress elsewhere. One of the councillors was an independent the other was a Liberal Democrat.
26. Hardly Mandelsonian is it? The Scotsperson can’t like Lib Dems!
32. “If he fails in politics he could always open a travel agency.”
Roger, I think that Blair airtours controls the market on foreign adventures. The only problem is that the reality does not seem to reflect the spin found in the dossier’s.
36. LD/Lab/Con 77 seats
The rest 52 seats
Majority of 25 (77-52)
35 Mboy
Yes, you are quite right, a Lab + LD + Grn coalition is also perfectly feasible. It is the so-called “traffic light coalition” (red/amber/green), and has been used in mainland Europe, eg Germany etc.
This ICM poll would give a traffic light coalition a Majority of 3.
40 Andrea
Nope. That is not how the “Majority” sum works!
Is it? Crikey, I am starting to think you are right… LOL
37.”YouGov are the most Tory friendly pollster in recent years and IIRC were the only pollsters to get it right last time.”
Do you mean in the run up of 2003 Elections?
How embarrassing. Sorry Andrea and Zebidee (kind of - you were a little off yourself). All my “Majority” numbers are wrong.
Ah well, you live and learn… but only if you are paying attention!
Yes - The Mail used You Gov to carry out a few polls for them that showed very different figures to the other pollsters. Mike Russell referred to them as ‘silly’ a few days before he lost his seat.
I’m not sure if ICM carried out any in the run up to the 2003 elections but they did in the run up to the 1999 election and had the Tory vote share as low as 8%!
42. Stuart, in Westminster they calculated in that way:
Current working majority: 352 Labour MPs less 285 of all other parties excluding Speaker & Deputies and Sinn Fein
http://www.parliament.uk/directories/hcio/stateparties.cfm
Have just seen the Tory choice of candidate in the Poole and Mid Dorset seat. The UKIP vote will treble, put your money on it.
37 Max - “One of the councillors was an independent the other was a Liberal Democrat.”
That is very interesting. Defections across parties are quite unusual in Scotland, aren’t they, even at local govt level?
“.. poll around 16-17% on both votes and gain a couple of seats” - looks about right. When are Scottish pollsters going to get the finger out and measure Tory support better?
38 wage slave - “The Scotsperson can’t like Lib Dems!”
Au contraire. Until Andrew Neil came along The Scotsman was powerfully pro-Lib Dem. Of course he steered it firmly pro-Tory, but they lost so many sales that they have had to swing to a more general Unionist position. But of course they are very anti-Labour still, so they tend to stick the knife into the LDs at regular intervals, cos they prop up Jack McConnell’s government.
47 Andrea
Thanks. I’d already spotted that. I would do a blushing smiley if I knew how…
37.”as I’ve said all along I think we’ll do marginally better than last time and poll around 16-17% on both votes and gain a couple of seats.” Max, I agree with you regarding the tories prospects.
I expect Labour to lose support in the Scottish elections, but I think that the turnout will be low with many Labour supporters staying at home rather than voting for other parties. Will be interesting to see if the Libdem vote holds up despite being part of the present Holyrood administration.
47. Thanks Max (when are you going to order the list candidates, btw)?
In Ecuador, it seems that leftist Rafael Correa is ahead in the presidential run off
46. I was also under the impression that polls in Scotland were notorously unreliable. If I remember correctly they have basically being saying we would get less seats then we subsequently did at elections. I just wish it was the same hewre in Lancashire oops sorry Greater Manchester.
47 Andrea
In my defence, I got that false notion of how to calculate a Majority from the Scottish press, who reported that the Lib-Labs had a Majority of 2 after the Scottish general election of 2003.
It just shows: never trust what you read in the papers!
49. “That is very interesting. Defections across parties are quite unusual in Scotland, aren’t they, even at local govt level?” Could we see more of this at council level particularly with independents because of the new voting system?
54 ChrisD
Yes, I am pretty sure that is correct.
The new STV voting system for the Scottish council elections in May is going to cause an historic shift in the political landscape. It could see (and I very, very firmly hope that it does) the demise of the appalling “Independent” (sic) councillors. There is an incentive for them to join their real political parties before the election, but some may choose to do it afterwards.
According to The Daily the Metro reveals that Harman commissioned the poll herself. Oh dear.
http://thedaily.wordpress.com/2006/11/27/anything-you-want-harriet/
I’m reliably told that Harriet is the only candidate in the Deputy Leadership race without the likely backing of any trade union (including the TGWU where hubby is Dep Gen Secretary). This is surely far more significant in the electoral college, since most voters ’surveyed’ in the poll will not be voting.
I think the Lib Dems are likely to win more seats than their poll ratings suggest due to their very effective targeting in Scotland.
The impact of this targeting will be partially dmapened by the effect of the regional list seats but not entirely.
I see that The Sun is going big on this “breakup of Britain” story, on the back of yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph poll:
Is this end of United Kingdom?, The Sun, today
Britain wants UK break up, poll shows, Sunday Telegraph, yesterday
29 Max
Here is the link for that Glasgow City Council story. Nothing I love better than seeing Labourite cooncillors in a faff. God bless their cotton socks.
Labour council in coalition talks with LibDems, Greens, The Herald
Ho ho. From that The Sun article:
“Imagine what life would be like in an independent England.
It’s 2012 and England, not Britain, is hosting the Olympics… opened by the Queen and Prince Philip. They have cut short their annual holiday at Butlins in Bognor Regis — the Sussex seaside resort replaced Balmoral as the Royals’ summer getaway.
Across England, people are in party mood. Sure, the cost of the Olympics overran by billions as a result of financial mismanagement when England was ruled by Scots. But no one minds — after all, income tax has been cut by 5p — since we no longer have to subsidise the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish economies.”
59 ‘a result of financial mismanagement when England was ruled by Scots.’ sounds doom laden for The Clunking Fist as far as the Sun is concerned. They, as ever, go with the flood and claim to have controlled the flow.
RE 56 Henry G, if true it looks a littel too self promoting. After all who would leak it?
RE 59 Stuart , The sun is as ever full of excrement.
60 blue2win
Here’s a list of the Scots currently ruling England (*but not Scotland):
Tony Blair (debateable: Tony says he’s English but Dr John Reid says he’s Scottish)
Gordon Brown
John Reid (* - Scotland’s Justice Minister is Cathy Jamieson MSP)
Des Browne
Alistair Darling (* - Scotland’s Trade and Industry Minister is Nicol Stephen MSP, Lib Dem)
Douglas Alexander (* - Scotland’s Transport Minister is Tavish Scott MSP, Lib Dem)
Charlie Falconer
Ian McCartney (sits for an English constituency)
Adam Ingram
Jim Murphy
Nigel Griffiths
David Cairns
Anne McGuire
Thommy McAvoy
Frank Roy
… and of course the Rt Hon Michael Martin MP, Speaker of the HoC
62 Benedict White - “The Sun is as ever full of excrement.”
Well of course it is. But surely you cannot deny that it plays a crucial role in UK politics?
There can be no doubt now that the debate about a devolved English Parliament has escaped the chattering classes, and is now well and truly out there among the English populace at large. How on earth are The Establishment going to re-cage this beast now?
Campaign for an English Parliament
[32] on the other hand the ever reliable Beeb has “Would Scottish Independence hurt the UK?”
What like ending the UK you mean?
RE 64, Well Stuart I take your point. Can I ask why you want “independence”?
RE 65, The Beeb as with all journalists can help missing the key points can it?
64 Is that a problem, Stuart?
Maybe they’re smarter than us.
66 Benedict
Because I believe that it is better for countries to govern themselves. My country is Scotland.
67 Peter the Punter
Probably! The “chattering classes” are usually wrong about most things, most of the time. I seem to remember that in yesterday’s thread SeanT and Snowflake had a bit of friendly banter over the greater wisdom of the populace at large.
RE 68, Stuart, but all countries are constructs, built over time from smaller entities. Therefore you could ask why not Lothian or indeed Shetland independence?
Incedently if Shetland wanted to be either independent of Scotland or remain in the Union what would be your position?
I still have a feeling yer other woman is going to cause Harman serious issues, if she stands.
Has she come out yet with a declaration or otherwise?
Whats this drafting statements of regret business by Prescott over slavery? Slavery was killed off a long time ago, how about a statement of regret for all the women you’ve harassed ya fat…….. how about a statement of regret that you arent protecting black communities from crime in their own communities eh? Something relevant would be nice, something you’d have to do something about rather than this empty political cowardice. Tony saying it was regreetable is one thing, official statements drawn up by Prescott or anyone else is another.
Would those of you are English please tell your fellow nationals to stop being such snivelling, self flagellating arseholes..its painful to watch and it makes me want to vomit.
Thanking you.
71.”Has she come out yet with a declaration or otherwise?”
2She” in the sense of Harriet?
And what type of declaration do you mean?
70 Benedict. Or indeed union with Norway !!
The Western Isles might become independent too. A Gaelic kingdom with a Jacobite Lord of the Isles !
Orkney might go the way of Shetland, into a Grand Viking Confederation !
71 Benedict “all countries are constructs”
Absolutely correct! All states, countries and nations are social constructs - the “imagined community”:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imagined_Community
The United Kingdom is also an imagined community, as is the European Union, China, England, Austria, Wiltshire and Bethnal Green.
It is just that certain imagined communities - for example Scotland - are stronger than other imagined communities - for example Atholl. Which imagined community is stronger in the Scots’ collective imagination - Scotland or the United Kingdom? Opinion pollster find that we much prefer to refer to ourselves as “Scottish” rather than “British”, but the ballot box tells a different story, thus far.
By extention, if Shetlanders want self-determination, who on earth am I, a non-Shetlander, to stand in their way? That would just be arrogance. Please note: there is currently not even a Shetland autonomy movement, let alone a Shetland independence movement. The last time there was one - in the 80’s - the SNP did not stand a candidate against it, the only party not to. It did v poorly at the polls!
Is there any reason why Betfair are not offering a market on the deputy leadership? My betting’s too small-time to jusitfy opening accounts elsewhere and until Betfair get their act together I can’t seem to get engaged with the pros and cons of harman and blears. Which just reminds me how disengaged I’d become before I started betting.
Perhaps if the government encouraged people to bet on political events, maybe required that the basics be taught as part of the national curriculum and gave people a free £25 bet on the first election in which they were entitled to vote, maybe then we’d start seeing the upturn in turnout that postal voting was meant to deliver?
Jenny Tonge in troubles again…she has to face an hearing with the Whips on Monday (next one or today?)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6186966.stm
Interesting what is happening to Labour in Scotland.
I dont believe it is the Scot Nats prospering rather that it is Labour that is collapsing in what was once their heartland - What is the turnout expected to be? I expect significant differential abstention by previous Labour voters.
The reaction of the Labour big guns to attack the enemy rather than be positive about what Labour would do is making their situation worse.
Though it hurts to say it Jack - Scotland is showing us the future again. Mother-in-law was Scotish does that help?
Are Galloway Conservatives the ones with the big white belt round their middles?
65. Surely you could have a UK without Scotland? There’s still Northern Ireland and Wales. The former, for obvious reasons, would probably go with the status quo, and the latter, despite some pockets of pro-independence (especially in the North-West) is still (in my view) reluctant to go it alone.
75 Send them an email, James F. You will not be the first. If they receive enough, they may oblige (alhough they don’t have a good reputation for listening to their clients).
On Scottish independence what about people like me who live in England but whos family is traceable to the 11th century in the Scottish Highlands, do I get a vote or is it just to any Tom, Dick and Harry who lives in Scotland (and a damm lot with about a Scottish a sounding name as Smith). Also what of the armed forces who swear to defend the crown and union.
Re 74, Stuart it would be interesting to see how Shetlanders feel about being part of an independent Scotland. I can see why they do not want to leave the Union.
How do the SNP do in Shetland?
As for feeling more Scotish than British that is very much a recent thing as far as I can tell. Wales seems to be going the same way but slower. It would be interesting to see if the tide turns on this one.
77 Icarus. “Mother-in-law was Scottish..”
Some relationships are inherently ill conceived despite outstanding ancestry !
78 Matt
Mmmm… it depends on when, and how, the United Kingdom was formed:
- was it in 1707, by the union of Scotland and England (which had long totally incorporated Wales)?
- or was it in 1801, by the union of Great Britain with Ireland?
Most Scots would say 1707, but I sense that the balance of opinion, and professional historians, seems to plump for 1801.
If it is 1707 then Scotland withdrawing would mean the dissolution of the Union. But if 1801 then it would mean that Scotland seceded from a union. Subtle, but perhaps important difference in international law.
77 Icarus - “I dont believe it is the Scot Nats prospering rather that it is Labour that is collapsing in what was once their heartland”
This may surprise you Icarus, but I agree. It is the old classic: Oppositions don’t win elections; governments lose them. Mind you, at least we in the SNP have managed to avoid any cock-ups so far, so we deserve a little credit, surely?
“The reaction of the Labour big guns to attack the enemy rather than be positive about what Labour would do is making their situation worse.”
Yep: you are spot on again. They are totally nuts. That Blair speech in Oban was tremendous for us.
“Are Galloway Conservatives the ones with the big white belt round their middles?”
Awww… aren’t they pretty: http://www.rarebreeds.co.nz/belted.html
78 matt. If Scotland leaves the Union, then the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland fails.
You might consider the United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland.
81 Benedict. The Shetlands are a Liberal fiefdom since the days of Jo Grimmond and the SNP poll badly. If I recall correctly the Shetlands voted against devolution in the 70’s poll.
After all the talk on here yesterday and today on Scottish Independence it is interesting to look at the last Mori figures on what people considered the most important issues facing Britain today ( they could name more tha one ) . The actual number mentioning Scottish Independence and/or devolution was exactly Zero and this will include those polled who live in Scotland and Wales .
I think this shows how little thought the electorate give to this issue and how little attention we should pay to the polls we discussed yesterday .
83, 85. I see. So a constitutional muddle then. Why am I not surprised!?
Seriously though, if Scotland does leave the UK (and dissolve the Union or whatever) I’m fairly certain that (at THIS moment in time) the other constituent countries would want to stay united. Wales has the same legal system as England, for instance, making the two nations’ fate somewhat more intertwined.
Again, I think there is a move towards pro-independence in Wales, but it’s not got to breaking point yet and probably won’t for some time - we might see more of an effect when the assembly gets more powers and the compulsory Welsh language teaching’s effects start to trickle through.
All this goes to show though that (as many of us thought at the time) devolution was never going to strengthen the Union, it was going to cause more resentment and make it more likely to break up.
80 S Penketh
Scotland is a civic nation, not an ethnic or linguistic one. It is the people who live in Scotland who will determine her fate, not those who (or whose ancestors) left.
81 Benedict
SNP vote in Shetland, 2003: 2nd place (behind LD) - 20% (national share - 24% - so not far off average)
Scottishness is a recent thing is it? Please, please tell me you are taking the p*ss, cos if you aren’t I am going to get a bit worried about you. Do you actually know anything at all about the history of these islands? It is “Britishness” which is a new concept, and it never managed to take the necessary hold - and it probably never will now.
85 Jack W
In the successful 1997 referendum Shetlanders voted heavily for Scottish devolution: 62.4% Yes vs. 37.6% No.
National result: 74.3% Yes vs. 25.7% No
Let’s see if I get that strange comment after the time-stamp again
It could be argued that, just as Turgot’s reforms are said to have brought on the French revolution by showing that change was possible, that devolution will lead to the break-up of the Union.
Equally well it could be argued that the Holyrood parliament has met the legitimate grievance of the Scots and will stand the test of time, or, if not, that it was a necessary management procedure for a civilised parting of the ways.
It’s a bit like that famous glass that’s both half empty and half full all at once.
Devolution was a big fat mistake, which we can all see now. In the end, the way it was done, it was bound to produce a Nationalist government, which would legislate for a referendum, and then agitate for independence.
The best possible outcome now, for Unionists, is continual pressure for a split which will irritate everyone and envenom debate, and lead to a Quebec situation. The worst outcome is an actual split, which will be hugely messy and I think will be regretted by all in time. I do speak as an Englishman with a Scottish partner and a halfScottish daughter…;)
So that’s that. That’s what Devolution has done. Perhaps if the Labour party had thought it through first, worked out the West Lothian Question, and come up with some proper fair system like real Federalism, then maybe the Union could have been saved.
But they chose not to. They just went on and did it in their juvenile way, and it has turned to dust in their hands.
This is the story of this government, since 1997. They’re not bad at the small things, but the big issues - constitutional reform, Devolution, Iraq - are just way beyond them, and end up disasters, or worse.
The government that destroyed the Union and took us into an illegal war where half a million people died. That’s quite some epitaph. Well done Tone.
I thought Scotland was North Britain.
Britain has always been a collection of Kingdoms - Mercia, Essex, Wessex, Northumbria, Scotland and Rutland.
I cannot see the people of Scotland voting for full independence even though the SNP may get into power. Will the SNP respect the peoples choice or keep asking until they get the “right” answer.
As much power should be devolved as possible but equally we need to work closer with people throughout the world. One nation Nationalism wont help matters.
72. I think Yokel meant Blears. I think she’s continuing to take ’soundings’. Whatever that means.
Stuart, everything is relative. Scotland today is a strange cobbling together of Picts, Britons, Saxons, Norse etc etc. Was not Edinburgh once the capital of the Saxon kingdom of Northumbria, a kingdom not spreading too far north of the Forth but going right down to the Humber?
Personally, as an East Anglian who has never been to Norfolk, with Welsh blood and a past resident of Scotland and Gibraltar, I am only ‘British’, which given the present performance of the willow-wavers down under, is pretty useful right now.
Stuart D You might argue that the UK was born in 1603 with the coronation that united in one person and monarch the kingdoms of Scotland and England and Ireland, the Principality of Wales and the kingdom of France (which we still want back from those damned usurpers).
James styled himself king of Great Britain and Ireland and France. The use of Britain to mean England and Wales and, if the whim took, Ireland, goes back much further than that of course.
If any country in the union seceded then the UK would exist but would need to be restyled as omitting the name of the country that had left (but keeping France in the title, of course).
By the way Stuart, I have no problems with Scots governing England but I have a problem with MPs from Scottish constituencies governing England when there is a separate Scottish parliament. If England had its own MPs voting on English matters, it would not bother me a jot if the UK government was made up of MPs from Scotland as long as they were answerable to all MPs in parliament from all parts of the UK where their responsibilities were the same throughout.
My problem with Blair is not in any way that he is Scottish, only that he is a disgrace to the whole UK not least for having presided over an unprecedented weakening of the UK. He was warned this might happen and ignored it. Some of those warnings came from his own colleagues.
89 Stuart. Thanks for those figures. I’ve tried to find the figures for the devolution poll of the Callaghan government through the usual sources but failed.
.. Andrea ??
91 seanT. Cobblers !!
A federal system would retain the Union. Push power down to its best logical option and stop the centralizing instincts of the national politicians. The failure of the Blair government was to devolve power to Scotland and to a lesser extent Wales and forget England. A devolved English parliament in say Oxford, Winchester or Oakham !! would solve all this pent up nationalism !
Westminster would then be reduced numerically and retain pre-determined British wide and international issues within its remit.
“think she’s continuing to take ’soundings’. Whatever that means. ”
Banging her head against a brick wall? You can get grant support to protect your house against this sort of activity, I believe.
JackW, you misread me - I agree with you. That’s what I’m saying. Labour should have thought through their policy and come up with something truly Federal that solved all the problems - including WLQ.
They didn’t. And here we are.
89. I wonder how the Shetlanders would vote (if they were given a chance) on the proposition that they should become an independent crown dependency, with full control over their North Sea oil reserves? I reckon about 90% in favour myself.
Re 88, Stuart, No Scottishness is not a recent thing, but the question of people considering themselves Scotts, Welsh, or English first ahead of what ever you wanted to call the Union is new, or rather in terms of numbers it is.
[91] SeanT, what a load of big fat Bulsh*t. The SNP always talk big and deliver small. Sturat Dickson and the other Nats know (indeed fear fine well that “[90 minute] patriotism is not enough”
I do not think that the current set up is sustainable, but neither was the previous one. Under the Tories Independence grew popular because the government imposed the poll tax on Scotland first- and kept on doing so, even when it was obviously a major screw up. Now Independence is popular because Labour turn out to be as useless as ever.
The point to chew on is in England: the English currently support separatism more than the Scots do- but they won’t vote for the ENP-there isn’t one since NuLabourLite are so wishy washy you can not identify a policy they wouldn’t trade.
Of course Federalism is the answer- and is coming. The idea of Britain is not dead, Queen and Country still count- and on both sides the Tweed, whatever the more arrogant seperatists on both sides may say.
87 Matt - “All this goes to show though that (as many of us thought at the time) devolution was never going to strengthen the Union, it was going to cause more resentment and make it more likely to break up.”
Well, don’t blame us: we in the SNP did try, repeatedly, to tell you so! A clean break is what we all need, not this atrocious mess of an asymmetic confederation. Ta Mr Blair!
96 - Jack you can get a region by region break down here:
http://www.alba.org.uk/referenda/devo.html
96. Jack:
http://www.alba.org.uk/referenda/devovote.html
(bottom of the page for 1979 result)
If Scotland wants to go its own way, whats the problem? As long as its their choice, let them get on with it. Politics South of the border will reorganise, a party political system, which is all most redundant, will have to restructure. Those people who consider themselves left/liberal can then recreate a new left of centre party out of (shorn of its Scottish branch) the Labour Party and the Liberals and probably neo-socialist Conservatives, most of Cameron’s lot in fact. The right can then recreate a right wing party out of the Conservatives/UKIP even some BNP.England would then have parties that are more representative of its members, unlike today. A fissure with Scotland would not be a bad thing for both countries. One important aspect could be that Scots would be ineligable for the X-factor, we would not then have to put up with the MacDonald Brothers winning it.
93. HenryG. I suppose “taking soundings” can mean “I can’t declare now, because people can complain about my role as Party Chair and in the NEC which should over-see the contest”
91 SeanT
So, perpetual irritation and envenomed debate is the “best possible outcome now, for Unionists”? Please tell me that you don’t really believe that. Surely we are better going our separate ways and having a mature, adult relationship of mutual respect in the future?
94 zebidee
Far too many people here at PB seem to have an alarmingly “ethnic” definition of what a nation is. Did the Enlightenment skip by the attention of a few folk?
New thread
95 Blue2Win - “… I have a problem with MPs from Scottish constituencies governing England when there is a separate Scottish parliament. If England had its own MPs voting on English matters, it would not bother me a jot if the UK government was made up of MPs from Scotland… “
Yep, it is called the West Lothian Question, as I’m sure you know.
96 Jack W - “A devolved English parliament in say Oxford, Winchester or Oakham !! would solve all this pent up nationalism !”
That’s the first time I’ve agreed with you Jack in ages! When did you see the light?
99 seanT. I worry greatly when we agree !
…. I un-cobblers my remark.
104/5. Max/Andrea. Thanks both …. and well done Max for beating Andrea by seconds.
The Orkney and Shetland figures were damning in 79.
112.”104/5. Max/Andrea. Thanks both …. and well done Max for beating Andrea by seconds. ”
And he’ll pay for this insolence!
111 Stuart. I am the shining light of PB …. BTW that is not Peru Branch !
The Sun tells us that The Old Emperor still can’t bring himself to mention that little country he passes through on the way from Cowley Street to Scotland.
Lib-Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell said: “Once devolution has bedded down in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland it would be entirely appropriate to consider the role of MPs from all three countries at Westminster.”
You may recall his other great statement when asked about him, as an MP for a Scottish constituency, voting on English matters, he said that his constituents hadn’t raised the question with him so he didn’t think it an issue. And anyway his constituents had relatives south of the Border.
Shortly after this he said he looked forward to more co-operation between Cardiff, Belfast and Edinburgh.
Spot the missing country.
50 – Sorry, but why would STV give “the SNP the hope of achieving an overall majority, or something very close to it, in the future”?
More generally, why all this sudden talk of Scottish independence? Certainly, the opinion poll in today’s Scotsman is certainly very good for the SNP, but it still shows that an overwhelming majority (around 2/3) of seats in the Scottish Parliament would be won by parties actively opposed to independence. It’s possible that Alex Salmon may end up as First Minister, but the idea that that means that Scotland is close to independence is simply wishful thinking / scare tactics (depending on which side you are on).
The OED makes it clear that the ‘UK’ dates only from 1801 with this original citation: ‘1801 Proclamation 22 Jan., George the Third,..of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, King.’ So what the SNP wants is indeed secession from ‘Great Britain’ as well as the dissolution of the UK.
The other bit of ‘GB’ is a legal entity called ‘England & Wales’ within which a bit called ‘Wales’ has been granted what amounts to ’super-county-council’ status.
Minus Scotland, the new name would be the United Kingdom of England & Wales and Northern Ireland, aka UKEWNI, Catchy name!
This message timed, by coincidence, @ 1707 hrs.
95. Zebidee - are you sure Edinburgh was once capital of Northumbria?
96. “The use of Britain to mean England and Wales and, if the whim took, Ireland, goes back much further than that of course.”
The usage of ‘Britain’ to include Ireland largely stems from the 19th century. Who knows where we’d be if someone had been a bit more imaginative and come up with an adjective for the ‘United Kingdom’.
117. Christo, absolutely right, though I suspect that it is more correct that the SNP want to dissolve Great Britain and secede from the United Kingdom.
119- In geographic terms Britain is England and Wales only. Great Britain is Eng, Wales and Scotland. The British Isles is Great Britain, Ireland and the associated islands like the Isle of Man!
Britain may have been short hand for the British Isles but strictly speaking it was inaccurate!
No Rik, but in geographic terms in the English language Britain and Great Britain are the same thing - England, Scotland, and Wales. The ‘Great’ in ‘Great Britain’ distinguishes it from Brittany (’Grande Bretagne’, and ‘Bretagne’ in French).
*ignore the ‘but’ in the opening sentence.