Labour lead Tories by 54-15% amongst politics dons
November 30th, 2006
-
And 53% predict that Labour will win a fourth term
Full details are now out on the Ipsos Mori site of the poll of members of the Political Studies Association which was prepared for their annual conference this week.
Although no voting intention was asked the 283 respondents responded were questioned about what outcome they personally were hoping for at the General Election. These were the shares - LAB maj 54%: HUNG 21%: CON maj 15% so it is reasonable to assume that 54-15 would be the LAB-CON split.
The shares are remarkably similar to their predictions of what they thought would actually happen LAB maj 53% : HUNG 28%: CON maj 18%. Clearly a lot of the 54% of Labour supporters were amongst the 53% predicting a majority Labour government.
On their choice of “most capable PM” the group went 49-10 for Brown over Cameron. On “most capable” Chancellor it was Brown 68: Cable 8: Osborne 4%.
Obviously few PSA members are active on the General Election outcome betting markets where their overwhelming prediction, a Labour majority, is the least favoured by punters prepared to risk their money. The latest prices are LAB maj 2.6/1: HUNG 1.38/1: CON maj 2.3/1.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Aaand the winner for most irrelevant yet predictable poll of the century is…….
Yes, Commentator, a bunch of Academics teaching politics, and we are surprised they are all lefties?
You have to laugh.
re 1. I disagree Commentator. I have worked in universities for a decade and a half and I am amazed that as many of 15% wanted a Tory victory.
O/T is that Big Mak of this parish standing at the gates to the tube?
2 LOL!
Well, it’s a pretty unrepresentative sample. Just as well these don’t bet.
Oh by the way, there is an amusing screen print of a typo on my blog
…these guys don’t bet!
And greetings to Commentator, whose posts I enjoy even if I don’t always agree with them.
Re 3, So Mike, that is a landslide gain for the Conservatives then?
Personally I’ve always been in favour of restricting the vote to members of the PSA
While the sample was laughably unrepresentative, which probably biased their replies on Brown & co, the overall judgement on likely outcome is reasonably sound. Most plump for a small Labour majority, then hung parliament, then small Conservative majority - which is borne out on poll evidence so far. Admit I rubbished the poll on the preference/individual judgement questions (amazing that Labour had so many highly rated Chancellors before Gordon and the Tories so many poor ones).
RE 9 , Bally Eric
Re 10, I will obviously have to look at the poll in more detail. Who do they rate as a Labour chancellor?
I’m constantly amazed by how people merge their wishes with their predictions.
It’s a good thing though - this (huge majority) of people are the ones that make it so easy to win money on Betfair.
The sample is a joke. In fact the poll is a joke. The political studies lot must be the most unrepresentative group to have been
surveyed. It’s as laughable as the poll which said Gordon Brown was the best chancellor ever. we all know that people who are around at the time do better in such best all time polls. The same applies when people name their favourite records…recent hits always do well for a a year or so until people turn to other recent memories.
3. “I have worked in universities for a decade and a half and I am amazed that as many of 15% wanted a Tory victory.”
#13 - Surely they intended it as a joke. Right?
11 Benedict - the poll gives average rating for overall success of 5.8 to Labour Chancellors versus 4.2 for Conservative ones. Just remember how much better Healey was compared to Howe & Lawson.
Political academics tend to split between those who lean left, and those who think that the ones who only lean left are dangerously right-wing. There are very few exceptions.
I doubt Cameron will be losing any sleep over this one!
17. Yes, a straw poll of 100 masters of foxhounds would probably have been more representative than this one.
18 Or indeed 100 foxhounds…
[17] You mean - the 15% who looked forward to a Tory victory next time are actually ultra-Trotsykists who want a Tory government to enrage the masses into spontaneous revolution
?
20 LOL!
No surprise here.
At 17
OMFG, it’s Lindley!!!!
On the subject of utterly pointless and unrepresentative polls:
I remember reading an opinion poll of farmers’ voting intentions in one of the main farming magazines in the run up to the 1992 GE. If I recall rightly it said:
Conservative 67%
Liberal Democrat 25%
Labour 4%
Utterly pointless information really - but only eclipsed in its sheer pointlessness by the breakdown of the variations between the voting intentions of different types of farmers (arable, dairy, pig, sheep, poultry etc) which followed the main graph.
17: My main tutors at university were comparatively non-lefty: Lord Norton of Louth, who is a Tory peer, and Phil Cowley, who is sort of somewhere around the middle.
The rest of the department were raving trots of course
A sign of things to come when we have a Gordon Brown premiership.
http://dizzythinks.blogspot.com/2006/11/itll-cost-us-too-much-to-tell-you-again.html
http://dizzythinks.blogspot.com/2006/11/government-says-it-costs-too-much-to.html
For a most irrelevant poll a very generalised quote..
Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach.
Re: Those who responded to my points in the last thread, I’m looking at this from the point of view of where my money goes. Whilst we may have some time before the next GE and circumstances may change, my gut instinct is that the Lib Dems will get squeezed in a straight blue/red fight. Their national % figure may not drop too dramatically but their seat loss will be proportionately larger. The gut instinct is formed out of a general look at what I’m guessing Joe Average thinks and feels rather than anything else. Shockingly for many people on this forum, I don’t overdo the detail. When I get a definite feel for the tide, thats where I go. People can quote me stats all day but I don’t buy them right at this moment. If my gut instinct isn’t there, I don’t bet unless its a mathematical no lose situation (which doesn’t occur often enough!).
To me, at this stage, this election is the Tories to lose and they could if Cameron doesn’t harden up & get clear, but they have the tide in their favour.
I read a while ago in the indispensable C.A magazine (the magazine of choice for the Scottish Accountant, and needless to say completely free). That Financial Directors polled by them preferred David Cameron to Gordon Brown by 40% to 27%.
And we all know accountants are extremely well informed individuals!
I appear to have just nudged Bob Piper off the top spot on rankingblogs.com! See:
http://www.rankingblogs.com/dir/index.php?cat=Politics
The Bag Ladies on the Picaddillly line voted overwhelmingly Screaming Lord such as the best PM. Only 10% were swayed in their opinion when told he was dead.
28. You know Benedict I only had to read the top line of that post to know it was you.
Such blatant, disgraceful self promotion. Well done to ya!
Re my 28, I don’t actualy rate ranking blogs.com, just chuckled to be top in politics there is all. Iain Dales used to be but took it off his site.
29. Every party has those types, they are called core voters…..
28. You have a Blog Benedict? You kept that very quiet……
Re 30 Yokel, I am deeply wounded by your comment Sir!
Did I mention my blog
BTW, do we have previous years fiigures for this PSA opinion poll? It would be nice to do a comparison.
Re 28 Ian.
25 Chris D It is ridiculous the the Treasury cannot easily find the answer to an accounting question easily. Might explain the tax credit and VAT scandals though.
These parliamentary answers are really an abuse of the system, trying to keep MPs in the dark about government profligacy.
But then they all talk about the government investing money. They never seem to recognise that it is tax payers’ money.
[26]
Of course what you say may be true, yet if the headline numbers are not squeezed too much, it is hard to see substantial losses in the offing- Lib Dems have a history of being pretty tenacious when they get elected. The problem is that it has been much harder for them to get elected in the first place. So your gut instinct may still lose you money.
I do not say that it won’t happen, but I think there is a pretty good track record of the Lib Dems resisting the squeeze in seats where they hold. This is probably because the key issue for Lib Dems is electoral credibility- getting over the “wasted vote” argument. If you hold the seat you already have credibility.
27.”And we all know accountants are extremely well informed individuals! ”
yes, Max, you can even count on Walter Walfgang
I find it pretty alarming that politics academics seem to find it so hard to distinguish between what they hope for and what they predict. Do these people have any understanding of their subject at all?
Perhaps it would be useful discipline for them all to put £100 in a betfair account as I have and see whether they go up or down. And publish their standing so people know whether to turn up to their lectures or not.
I’m currently £20 up.
34. I knew it had reached the zenith of your self promotion when you were outside the big Brother House on an eviction night with a banner with your blog URL on it….
Actually thats not a bad idea. I could offer to get some people in with big banners on eviction night promoting companies for a few hundred quid. Guerilla marketing…..
[35] Only 2500 hits? I think our genial host gets that in about an hour… took me a month
Andrea, going back to yesterdays thread, have you asked for your signed photo of Dinky yet?
37, Well yes I could indeed do my money..when its down, which it isn’t yet..well not to any great amount!
RE 40, Yokel, now there is an idea
This post relates to the last thread and the potential for Lab to recapture seats / votes from the Lib Dems?
In the last few years policies have been introduced to make families such as mine a good deal poorer.
1. For my parents it’s Nursing Home fees. This has had an impact on our family. My father spent a number of years in a Home before his death. His estate to my mother was therefore significantly reduced.
2. For Mrs MoanR and I, Gordon Brown’s legacy will kick in when I retire. When Gordon is no longer an active politician what will he be remembered for? I think the “number one” will be his major negative impact on pensions. (This is what could be termed a “slow burner”)
3. For my children it’s Top up fees. Do voters realise how much students will owe on graduation? These are serious sums. Our first of three is in his first uni term – he will probably owe at least £25k.
The only political topic that comes up with people I talk to is Top Up Fees. (This is probably due to the people I know – lots of families with teenagers).
Has anyone considered the impact of Top Up Fees on the birth rate in the next decades? Other EU countries have a real problem with low birth rates. The graduates in my children’s generation will start families later and will have smaller families.
Which of the three main parties has the best policies for my family?
Question: What is Lib Dem policy on Pensions. Especially the 1997 Gordon Brown pensions dividend tax change.
Moan R. Those are all policies that disproportionately affect well-off families. If you don’t have assets the state pays your nursing home fees I believe. It tends to be middle-class, well-off people who go to university. And people with private pensions are by definition better off than people without.
Ergo, yes, surprise surprise, the Labour chancellor has been redistributive, better for well-off families than people in council housing.
PS why does this computer not want print my comments that no-one is pretending this poll is representative of the electorate. Why are some people being stupid enough to pretend it is? It’s reasonably representative of academics. You might think this is pointless, but I was quite interested.
Re: 13 “The same applies when people name their favourite records…recent hits always do well for a a year or so until people turn to other recent memories.”
Anyone remember “Sophie’s World” being named as one of the best “Books of the decade (I think it could even have been century). Not sure if it’s even still in print.
There’s a lesson in there somewhere for GB.
Re 41, Cicero, Only 2500 since I started on ranking blogs, 3451 since I put a meter on it, and interestingly enough 1250 odd of them this month which is high growth rate! (I am pleased anyway)
[45] Core is a “Citizens Pension”:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/benefits/issues/pensions.html
“The Citizen’s Pension would be paid at £109.45 per week (2005/06 figures), instead of the £82.05p basic state pension. The pension would rise year-on-year in line with the increase in average earnings and would be paid to all those over state pension age.
The Liberal Democrats will pay for these reforms by increasing pension age and reform of public sector pensions. Specifically;
· scrapping the State Second Pension and cutting back means-tested benefits;
·increasing the state pension age to 67, with a 25 year lead in time before anyone is affected;
· reforming public sector pensions to put them on a more sustainable footing.
The Liberal Democrats also want to boost private savings, with all employees being automatically enrolled in non-state pensions, with a right to opt out.”
There is a new policy paper due quite soon, I think, that will go into more detail on this
[49] Cool– and you do work hard for your traffic
42.Ian Jones, no, I haven’t! I’m shy!
(and I’m still suspicious!)
48. That was some Scandanavian blokey wasn’t it?
46. Althogh we are not poor, we are not well off. (That’s why Top Up fees are such a big issue for our family!) E.g. The next road to us is council or ex council houses. (Approx 20 yds from our house)
Could we have a standard acronym that we can all use for this site:
IDLIFSIRIP
“I don’t like the findings so I’m rubbishing the poll”
I think we’d all find it very useful at times, and it would save space and time.
As someone who often whinges about the media, I thought Radio 4 covered of the education proposals very well today - useful summary, reasonable time to explain them, space for the NUT to oppose them, and a balanced commentary.
Let’s now see those figures with past-vote weighting adjustments and unless I am mistaken the Tories would be well ahead.
Perhaps the experts are aware of the value of parliamentary by-election results in being amongst the best indicators of future general election performance. Labour has been in power for almost 10 years. It is a stark fact that during this time, the principal opposition Conservative party has failed to register a single by-election gain, the longest such hiatus in recorded electoral history. Moreover, it is hard to find a more universally dismal set of results ever to be recorded by an opposition party. For the record…..
Beckenham by-election, 1997 - Conservatives narrowly hang on to seat after member resigns amid scandal. -
Winchester by-election, 1997 - Conservatives turn a 2-vote deficit into a 22,000-vote deficit after appealing original result. -
Romsey by-election, 2000 - Conservatives lose a seat while in opposition for only the second time in 70+ years. -
Ipswich by-election, 2001 - Conservatives fail to gain a seat they have held in recent memory. They lose votes, rather than gain. -
Leicester South by-election, 2004 - Conservatives fail to gain a seat they have held in recent memory. They drop to third place. -
Hartlepool by-election, 2004 - Conservatives plunge from second place to fourth place for only the second time in history (first time when in opposition). -
Cheadle by-election, 2005 - Conservatives fail to regain a seat lost by only 33-votes four years previously. -
Blaenau Gwent by-election, 2006 - Conservatives finish in fifth-place for the first time in history. -
Bromley and Chislehurst by-election, 2006 - Conservative vote plummets in own seat by largest amount in history. Seat almost lost.
23. For sake of completeness, you don’t happen to have that breakdown - just so I can bear it in mind when I’m next listening to The Archers.
39. The figures don’t actually state that the political scientists’ predictions for the most part match their hopes; Mike’s comment at the top states that the two polls were remarkably similar, but no more than that.
55 Nick P “IDLIFSIRIP” ???? doesn’t work !! is it a code ?
I Detest Labour In Fact Say I Rest In Peace …
RE 51, Cicero, No not at all
I hardly ever mention it in fact!*
* Just practicing to be a politician
52 Andrea. “I’m shy …”
Ask Rik to get the signed picture …. it will make a wonderful focus for your Hunky Dinky Dunky shrine !
55 -
It is a rubbish poll though isn’t it - I assumed Mike had posted on it just so that commentator & others didn’t suffer further waiting YouGov and had something to tear apart.
Re 53: “That was some Scandanavian blokey wasn’t it?”
Jostein Gaarder - norwegian philosphy lecturer - Kinda creepy premise - Old man decides to teach school girl about the meaning of life
A certain somebody praying for a call from a certain somebody else !! :
http://www.clsb.org.uk/Ex_Curric/societies/Alan%20Duncan.jpg
64 LOL!
Andrea, ring the guy. He’s desperate!
55 Nick, I think for once you’re guilty of taking us all too seriously! I’m sure in its own way it was a perfectly sensible poll but it just seemed such a ludicrously narrow sample we couldn’t help but take the pi*s.
Come on, lighten up! We can put the world to right tomorrow.
Btw, I’m off to Sandown tomorrow and Saturday and suggest you *avoid* backing Kauto Star in the Tingle Creek…but keep it quiet.
OT,front page of to-day’s Telegraph,GP’s get 31% increase due to bungled contracts by the government,whereas Marines fighting in Afghanistan get £ 3,000 cut in allowances.
As they say you couldn’t make it up.
28. Benedict. Well done on your blogging success.
63 - awful book. From as far as I got with it was a bit of tacky storyline wrapped around paraphrases of Russell’s, erm, idiosyncratic History of Western Philosophy.
67 . Correct - only diffference is the Marines haven`t got a middle-class Trade Union in the BMA , which makes the eighties NUM appear a model of moderation , to negotiate their wages …
45
It was under Mrs Thatcher that long stay geriatric care beds were phased out of the NHS. This meant that geriatric care was privatised and homes were included as assets. Assets and savings had to be disposed of until down to £8,000, this figure was doubled to £16,000 by the present government. I know it happened to me. My mother developed senile dementia and required total care. All of her assets including her home were disposed of, she died after being in a vegetative state for six years. I fully accept that the state will be unable to pay for all geriatric care, but think that the figure of £16,000 should now be increased.
59 “Nick P “IDLIFSIRIP” ???? doesn’t work !!”
Jack, it sounds like your expectations of NuLab MPs is way too high.
Not much to say about politics dons - I steered as far away from politics at uni as only nerds got involved…how things have changed.
And Tistoph/Oxonian, I’m also coming to the LDYS event tomorrow night, will wear bright red shirt…hope to meet you both.
Now Peter the P… That ‘avoid backing Kauto Star’ could mean anything…its the wink at the end…its confusing!
71. It must have been a very difficult time to see your mother suffer in the way you described. I have every sympathy with you.
I was aware that the Conservatives had introduced the payment of long term care by the patients themselves. Some families have all their assets wiped out this way.
Ideally I believe that the state should pay for care, (in a NHS which is free).
Ah right, as I didnt fancy him for thsi one myself. He does have an issue running his races close together, I’ll give you that and its big negative. I’m also dubious about just how good the opposition was on the day at Haydock. It looked good, and it was good but was it that good? I don’t think hes an absolute top class 3 miler but equally I’m not convinced he’s going to do the business at 2, he’s somewhere in between these days.
77 Oh no, I think the Haydock run was top class. And I think he has a good chance in either the King George or the Gold Cup (especially the latter). I just think the Tingle may be coming too soon.
We’ll see. Should be a great race.
Unusual story on libdemvoice.org claiming that Government press officers are on standby for a major story on Monday.
Is it true? Any suggestions? Abdication, resignation, John Prescott exploding; all thoughts gratefully received, as I was going to do a Press release on Mondy, but might just hold on
78. Who knows but I have always thought Blair would have the last laugh by resigning when no one expected it rather than during a period when he is under pressure, which are few and far between!
Not a regular contributor, just a lurker, but this contrast in media stories caught me eye.
Remember the leftwing, multicultural brouhaha when the Sun alleged that asylum seekers were eating swans? Outrage, they claimed. Wholly invented story. One multicultural official said this:
“Britain is a state where newspapers can write absolute nonsense about asylum seekers eating donkeys or swan; where they can invent facts, exaggerate numbers, demonise vulnerable people..”
Okeedoke. But then suddenly we get this story last week:
A HUNGRY Muslim who tried to eat a swan while fasting during the Islamic festival of Ramadan was today given a two-month jail sentence.
Shamsu Miah, 52, killed the mute swan at a boating pond in Llandudno, north Wales, on September 25 - only the second day of his fast.
Jim Neary, prosecuting, said that when interviewed Miah said: “I was hungry, I had to eat the swan so I killed it, I stabbed it. I did nothing wrong, it was just a bird, I needed to eat.”
“The officers told him the swan was the property of the Queen and he replied, ‘I hate the Queen, I hate this country’.”
Curious.
I am sure all the leftys will now be apologising for
… getting it so wrong!
80 - I wouldn’t like to take on a swan, even if I did have a knife.
77. PTP. Thanks for State of Play.
83 Very welcome - but I won’t be around for Sandown updates. I’ll be there for the two days and doubt if I’ll have much time for PB.
You’ll have to manage without me! LOL!!
Night all. Form to study.
80/ So what? He killed a swan. As a vegetarian, I see no difference between killing a swan or a chicken, turkey or duck. It is all equally sick and disgusting in my opinion. Not only do we (Britain)kill animals, but human beings in great quantities as well.
So he hates the Queen. Why shouldn’t he? I hate Tony Blair’s guts for being a war criminal. Sue me.
85. As a meat eating republican I see no problem with eating swans either. Perhaps this is an area where we can find broad consensus?
78. Why would numerous departments clear decks for Trident or indeed nuclear power stations as speculated on the said site?
The key clarification is juist what Whitehall Press Offices have been put on standby.
Just in case Blair isn’t resigning on Monday, I suggest we all work hard to get millions to sign this on the Number 10 Website. Maybe Blair might get the hint:
http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/Resign/
Re 71
The policy of requiring houses to be sold to fund residential care was there in at least 1974, 5 years before Thatcher became PM.
RE DDC, thanks for your kind words. I was so pleased and put a screenshot on my blog”
89 - that policy has been there much longer than that.It was however under Mrs T that long stay wards closed meaning that more people were dealt with under this means testing system, who previously would have just remained on an NHS wards. However, nobody is now REQUIRED to sell their house - they can build up a debt between what they are able to afford and the full cost of the home, and repay it when the place is sold. This enables families to hold onto the asset, thus benefitting during a phase of house price growth, and also to make money towards paying off the debt by renting the property out (with pension and other benefits, this can often cover the whole care home fee if there is no mortgage). This was introduced by Labour post 97. The income threshold is now above £20,000, although it was actually Ken Clarke who increased it from 8 to £16000.
I can contribute to the debate on long-term care;I was raised from an early age by my maternal grandmother,who unfortunately developed Alazheimers in 1994-as a long-term carer,along with my aunts,we were revolted by the then-Conservative govt’s attempt to force my (now late) grandmother’s house-we are respectable,white-collar people,who,after that experience of Conservative callousness,would never,never countenance voting Tory again(On a happier note,I now own the house,and ,through rent-buy,look forwards to a stable,prosperous future,based upon Gordon Brown’s excellent stewardship of the UK economy!!)(And soon,pretty good Prime Minister-ship-ahh,I’m starting to feel a tinsy-winsy bit sorry for Tories-but not for long!
)
70.”67 . Correct - only diffference is the Marines haven`t got a middle-class Trade Union in the BMA , which makes the eighties NUM appear a model of moderation , to negotiate their wages …”
Correct, but with the success of site’s like ARSSE that might start changing?
Labour could always allocate a grant from the Union Modernisation fund to a staff military federation, got to be a good way of stopping these scandals happening.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6160189.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6179120.stm
The Libdems have gained a seat from Labour in the byelection in Newcastle
http://jonathanwallace.blogspot.com/
Not surprising as they won the ward last May too
92. It’s a shame that the continued increases in the council tax has effected so many pensioners, they are being heavily penalised before they even need to start thinking about long term care.
Remind me please, Chris D (95) - who was it that introduced the grossly unfair council tax?
O/T,Frank Luntz speaks on ‘This Week’ as I type
94 Full result LibDem 1180 Lab 815 BNP 383 Con 147 - May result LibDem 1591 Lab 1247 . Good LibDem result in 4 corner contest as opposed to straight fight in May .
Not surprising as they won the ward last May too
–
However, that time it was a straight fight between us and Labour. This time the Tories and the BNP stood. Even so, the majority was larger than in May.
Could England be a good bet to win the 2nd test? Current price 6.2-1. Reasons:
1) We have won the toss and bat first
2) McGrath is partially injured and they have only 4 bowlers
3) Very few tests these days are drawn with good weather almost guaranteed
A tremendous result for the Lib Dems in Newcastle!!! It clearly shows the way ahead, and how Lib Dems will sweep the board at the next general elelction in currently Labour-held seats! Was the Tory in 4th place, behind the BNP? Really? Tut, tut! With the Mighty Ming as Leader,the Lib Dems are clearly invigorated and there is nothing they cannot achieve….
Ehem….
Sorry for the excess…. I feel sometimes that I am unduly influenced by the youthful and exuberant Tories who post on this site and elsewhere…. Must regain a sense of proportion………
In fact, the Newcastle local government byelection was encouraging for the Lib Dems, but not totally unexpected, given the result last May. So Lib Dems will probably feel moderately encouraged by this result.
Addendum: “And of course, Newcastle is not traditional Tory territory….”
Re 96 , Tressage, It was the very same people who abolished the much worse rates, with the much derided and badly implemented poll tax.
What would you prefer?
Besides which council tax is up 84% since 1997.
103 Yes Benedict council tax is up 84% and remind us which party controls most councils and is therefore responsible .
28 -
“Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach.”
Oy! I get paid more for teaching than I would ‘doing’ in my field, what do you think I am stupid?
Scientists and others may be different though, a controversial point but poorer schools do badly in such subjects because they don’t get teachers who can teach the subjects well and, in fact, are often not even qualified to do so at all.
80 - was this guy an asylum seeker? Are you saying all Muslims are asylum seekers - or vice versa? What exactly is your point?
Am I allowed to answer “None of the above”, Benedict (103)?
The totally unfair Council Tax was introduced by you Tories.
It replaced the unfair and politically unacceptable Poll Tax, which had been introduced by you Tories.
The Poll Tax was introduced by you Tories to replace the unfair system of Rates, which you Tories defended against all criticism from the Liberals since the early 50s and probably beyond that, for all I know.
What they all have in common is that:
1. They were introduced / defended by the Tories against all reasonable criticism.
2. They all show no relationship between charges and ability to pay.
3. Which means that they are a jolly good policy for the wealthy, and less beneficial for middle income groups and those with even less income. (This is a traditional Tory policy objective.)
4. Lib Dem proposals for a fairer means of financing local government are constantly attacked by you Tories (who often invent figures, as in the case of the cynical/ignorant/stupid Tory MP for Eastbourne) - in order to maintain the status quo.
So when ChrisD makes a negative comment about the Council Tax, one feels moved to make some comment. What would you Tories put in its place?
Sorry, Benedict, that was a most unfair question. Obviously, you do not know yet, because Chameron has not yet told you what you think. He probably has no idea either. But equally obviously, you are now against the policy you yourselves once put in place. Of course.
103 - “Re 96 , Tressage, It was the very same people who abolished the much worse rates, with the much derided and badly implemented poll tax.
What would you prefer?”
I’d prefer something more directly linked to people’s ability to pay. Perhaps modelled on something already done at a national level. Perhaps modelled on income tax. That’s a good idea. Shall we call it “local income tax”? Let’s just hope that when we get to explain it on TV, we have a sober, coherent bloke to do it.
96&103. You beat me to it Benedict.
104. “remind us which party controls most councils and is therefore responsible” Well Mark up here in Scotland the Libdems and Labour are in coalition in Holyrood and between them control most of the councils.
My council is skint and guess what, I would blame the Libdem’s because they are in control. Absolutely gobsmacked at what we are now paying and I can tell you the increase next year is going to hurt many.
109 All the more reason for supporting the LibDem proposals for LIT .
Quite so, SBS (108). It may directly related to income - hence local income tax, which is the current policy proposal from the Lib Dems. Or it could be related to the value of the land, which appreciates through no necessary effort of its owner - site value rating, in short - which was the policy of the Liberal Party before it merged. Improvements to a property would not be penalised, because the charge would be on the instrinsic value of the site.
Two proposals, SBS - both of them fairer than what we currently have. And our poor old Tory friends are stuck for a policy. Their problem is the “AND” strategy that Chameron and his old Etonican chums have adopted. They want local government charges to be distributed evenly per head of the population, they don´t want the wealthy to have to pay more, and they don´t want charges to go up for anybody. It makes sense to them, if not to most of us.
So they are going to have to revert to their old policies of selling off assets, cutting services and lying throught their teeth (like the Eastbourne MP) in order to denigrate their opponents.
Or Cameron is going to have to continue on the Liberal path and pretend to adopt a few more Lib Dem policies. Whatever happens, the Tories lose.
110. Quite the opposite Mark, you forget that some of us actually have experience of being governed by the Libdems both at council level and in Holyrood. Something tells me that with LIT I would be even worse off and they would still be in the red.
You would be worse off, Chris D, only if you were very wealthy. But since you are a wingeing Tory, I suspect you probably are.
111.”they don´t want the wealthy to have to pay more, and they don´t want charges to go up for anybody. It makes sense to them, if not to most of us.”
Let me get this straight, after watching the council tax increase by 84% in 10 years you think that the pips are still not being squeezed hard enough. I look forward to the focus leaflets that tell the voters that after 10 years of Gordon Brown’s tax increases, people in the middle income bracket and upwards are still not paying enough tax.
113 Then let the Conservatives come up with a better alternative instead of being the party with no policies . There are far more people doen here in the South of England who have experience of 84% Council Tax increases under Conservative controlled councils .
Let’s not forget that the poll tax,introduced on April 1st 1990,was considered so outageous that it incitd threats of physical violence against councils attempting to collect it-I recall a few Irish families near me not paying a penny,by virtue of threats of retaliation from the then-still existent IRA
I still hear Tories justifying the poll tax from time to time.
Yes, I look forward to the Tory policies on local revenue raising. When will we hear them? Or do we have to wait for their next leader?
Oh, Chris D (114): “Let me get this straight, after watching the council tax increase by 84% in 10 years you think that the pips are still not being squeezed hard enough. I look forward to the focus leaflets that tell the voters that after 10 years of Gordon Brown’s tax increases, people in the middle income bracket and upwards are still not paying enough tax.”
It was you Tories who invented this particular tax, Chris. I suggest you Tories try to tell them.
100 - I have bought England on 6.2 (win=25) on Cantor. The last 5 first innings at Adelaide have generally been well over 400 & it’s not doing a thing.
We batted first 4 times out of 5 last year - when we did we controlled the game. If you’re going to back England, this your opportunity. 18-0 - so far so good.
RE 104 Mark, The Conservatives control most councils, but as every Lib Dem, even one trying to score a cheap and silly point ought to be aware councils have had to provide extra services and make provision for things dictated by central government for which they have not had the funding.
Re 107, Tressage, I hear your rant, there are arguments for and against local income tax verses some form of property tax. This is really not the forum to have it out. On the issue of figures in Eastbourne, I have had email exchanges with a Lib Dem activist in Eastbourne, where I sugested a way of asking the correct questions to nail down that debate. He goes by the name of SAC here.
There are legitimate differneces to be had over how one raises local tax, however the increase is not in question and as I pointed out to Mark above, it is primarily due to central government in my view.
RE 108, SBS, Local property tax has the advantage over local income tax in that it is much harder to hide a house than an income.
Besides which what about second home owners?
RE 111 Tressage, “Or it could be related to the value of the land, which appreciates through no necessary effort of its owner - site value rating, in short - which was the policy of the Liberal Party before it merged.”
What is the difference between that and the old rates system? You know, the one you were so heavily slating in post 107? (I know that was in terms of Lib Dem policy a long time ago, but as you were raising the 1950’s I thought I might get away with asking you about 40 minutes ago)
How about this for an unrepresentative poll of a select group of highly-involved political people:
Candidates in the Bromley & Chislehurst by-election:
8 did not live in the constituency and therefore could not vote anyway
2 (presumably) voted for themselves
1 voted for me instead of himself (he said he did, so it must be true)
Total: Green 33%, Independent 33%, Loony 33%
121 Benedict ” primarily due to central government ” - I bet £1,000 to a penny that if god forbid the central government was a Conservative one you would be saying it was primarily due to left wing Labour and LibDem councils .
Re 119 Tressage, forgive me if I talk down to you as if I think you are some sort of ignorant muppet, it is just that at this time of night time is short and my bed is calling.
You have slagged us off for defending rates then replacing them with the poll tax followed by the Council tax. You now propose a combination of a system that walks and talks like the rates system and another layer of income tax.
Just how are your rants adding to the debate on the question of how much a particular tax has risen?
Good to see Frank Luntz on This Week.
I see Tressage is getting excited at a rare Libdem success story…
I was even impressed with Pantsdown who was quite thought provoking.
Yes a good evening all round in the short term for the Libdems and that means good for the Conservatives in the long term. OMCS/CDS is still very much on course.
119. “It was you Tories who invented this particular tax, Chris. I suggest you Tories try to tell them.” I actually think that it would be a much better idea to point out the council tax increase next year in time for the Scottish elections.
Re 123, mark, Fair point however the previous Conservative government tightned down what a local council could and could not do to a large degree whilst this government has mae us look like a light touch government. It has to be said that every council is under a great deal of financial preasure but interestingly enough as most of their electorate are liable for community charge they all feel it.
111/115/118. I could come up with ways for the total refinancing of local government which would be much fairer. Problem is you won’t like them as sloppy Labour and Libdem Councils would stop being subsidised by Conservative Councils via the Government.
Mark Senior: Libdem Liverpool Council receives twice as much Government funding per head of population as you do in Conservative Worthing and West Sussex.
Give me Ruth Kelly’s job and I’ll sort it out!!!
100 - England have still got to manage to take 20 wickets. Flintoff can be relied upon to pick up a few, but who will take the other 10-15?
Wow, Benedict (121)!!!!! A Tory starting to think about different forms of rating property!!!! Congratulations! But I don´t think you are a real Tory…
The difference lies in what you are putting the charge on. The old rating system taxed the buildings (supposedly based on what you could let it for) - so any improvements to the property meant that you had to pay more. This was most unfair to those who took an active interest in their property. They were unduly penalised by that particular system.
Site value rating (SVR) - the old Liberal Party policy - was based on the value of the site, not on the value of the construction. This goes back well into the 19th Century - and what was being taxed (as a proposal at least) was the land itself.
Other people - not least government in its different levels - make improvements and introduce infrastructure - so the value of a piece of land may well increase without any effort on the part of its owner. Just a windfall for him, in effect. So it is only fair that he should make a contribution based on the increased value of his property.
One benefit of this is that owners develop (or sell on) very expensive pieces of land, in order to gain the maximum profit from it - hence more intensive development in city centres. In contrast, in rural areas, where land is cheaper, there is less pressure for development; and where development is prevented (as in the case of a listed building), tax falls in at an appropriately low level (because the use of the land cannot be changed).
There is, then, pressure on owners to develop their land to the maximum, so market forces come very much into play. I thought you Tories would have liked that one, but probably the Liberals dropped this policy before you became aware of market forces - or even aware of the policy.
If you like, you could draw Cameron´s attention to this policy of SVR - it is a Liberal policy after all, so he will like it, - and it could even plug a wide-open gap in his battery of policies.
I became convinced of SVR while I was still a Tory and before I moved on to the Liberal Democrats. It makes sense.
No, Benedict (124). It could be argued the best solution is a mixture of local income tax and site value rating. However, the Liberal Democrats - now - are arguing for the former. The Liberal Party - previously - advocated the latter.
Thanks for the comment about being an “ignorant muppet” and talking down…. The problem that you Tories have is that you assume that everybody who disagrees with you is an “ignorant muppet” and so you talk down to everybody. Which is why people do not vote you into government.
Heck, DCC (125) - you should have read on. You would then have realised that what I wrote in the first paragraph was a mere parody of what you excitable young(ish) Conservatives are spouting out all the time.
127. Enjoyed your thoughtful posts on the subject of council tax Benedict. Got to admit that I get a bit bored with the argument that “it is still the conservatives fault regarding local taxation increases” when we have had 10 years of Labour in government. Also think that the public are not buying the argument any more.
125. Enjoyed Frank Luntz’s contributions on This Week when he got a word in. What was interesting was his observations about how Labour had failed to land that killer blow on David Cameron in his first year as leader.
Also thought that Paddy Ashdown’s dismissal of that point with the words “spoke to Bob Worcester of Mori and he says that David Cameron is now slipping in the polls” was illuminating. He just seemed to imply that everything was back to normal because David Cameron would continue on a downward slide and panic over.
Having been in the political wilderness for so long it is quite striking how arrogant Labour and the Libdems have become over the ability of the conservatives to become a serious threat to either party. I don’t know what will happen at the next GE, but as we have discovered over the last few elections voter share has not always matched bums on benches in Westminster and volatility is returning to UK politics. No party should be complacent about its “core” vote.
131. Ah but you patronise very well Sage but when it’s directed at me, I kinda like it…
Do you prefer Luntz with a libdemish beard like he had on This Week, or without?
Telegraph headline: “Cameron’s poll lead is down”
Link to story is not working so can’t get actual numbers!
Telegraph YouGov poll:
Con 37, Lab 32, LD 16, Others 15
YouGov forced choice:
Con under Cameron - 43
Lab under Brown - 34
136. Con -2 Lab NC and Libdems -1
137. And that is the likely choice at the GE.
Libdems 16? oh my.
YouGov questions on Cameron are favourable for him.
Q: Is DC proving a good leader of the Conservative Party?
Sept - Yes 35, No 27
Now - Yes 39, No 30
Q: Have the Conservatives become too soft on National Security and international terrorism?
Now - Yes 28, No 40
(no previous data)
Others at 15 is high. Will be many Conservatives who will come back when the chips are down within that 15.
134. Luntz made a couple of interesting points, Labour with all the control and power of government behind it had not been able to swiftly discredit Cameron in the way they had previous conservative leaders.
I loved his imitation of the Blair classic “I feel your pain” but added “I know I caused your pain but I still feel it”.
138. Sorry that should have been Libdems NC
140.Sept - Yes 35, No 27. Now - Yes 39, No 30. That suggests that some of the don’t knows are beginning to firm up their opinions?
Although it is of course only one poll I think this poll is one of the most important for a long time.
There has been a lot of speculation in the last few weeks that Cameron may have been starting to lose support. This poll (looking at all the questions) suggests this is not the case and that the position remains stable.
Telegraph is still sceptical though - lead headline “Cameron’s poll lead is down” and the Anthony King piece are not exactly supportive. I had expected a worse poll outcome for Tories as there has been a lot of negative comment recently. The opportunity or danger for the Tories is in the large number of don’t knows - to have a chance in next election the hope must be that the majority can be converted to supporters.
For Lib Dems the interest must be in Anthony Kings’ comment “YouGov at the moment is not only finding that fewer voters now back the Lib Dems than in the past but that an increasing proportion of those who do still back it are in general more favourably disposed towards the Tories than they used to be.”
146. Yes - the questions where the answers are broken down by Party supporters show Lib Dems like what Cameron is doing a lot.
This is very important in terms of likely tactical voting.
The more you look at it this poll looks very good for Cameron.
145. Got to agree Mike L. One thing is obvious when watching some political pundits over the last few months, they still seem obsessed with the conservatives poll ratings rather than the overall picture of all the main parties performances with a significant rise in the others.
A year ago the theme was “tories still can’t get out of their core vote box” now it is a year later “Tories can’t seem to get to the magically figure of 43% which will give them a majority in Parliament. What about Labour or the Libdems both now sitting in quite markedly lower positions with Yougov than they were a year ago.
The difference between total % of vote and actually MP numbers achieved by the parties makes betting on the seat distribution at the next GE a real lottery.
Tactical voting or even quite small swings to other parties like the SNP, UKIP, BNP or greens could distort the fortunes of all three main parties.
Yes, Cameron is very uch “on message” as far as Lib Dems are concerned (though decidedly ajnd extraordinarily vague about it all). There are only two problems for you Tories:
1. Does he actually mean what he says?
2. What do the traditional flog´em and hang´em Tories think about it all?
Meanwhile, Cameron is softening up the ground for the Lib Dems, who will arrive in the last reel with the authentic policies, which Cameron has been paving the way for. And all the traditional Tories drop off into the arms of UKIP. Very clever of Cameron.
So why do you Tories keep on singing his praises?
149. Tressage, just you go on dreaming about the wheels coming off project Cameron and a revitalised conservative party. By the way do you think that I should mention that the libdems seem to have a slow puncture?
Scarborough Hertford Ward
Con 736 - 73%
BNP 267 - 27%
Why no Labour or Lib Dems?
Re DDC at 125, thought the Lib Dems had been having quite a few successes over the past few weeks, suggest you do a quick check of the results. Almost as if we are on a different planet.