Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown - GOOD for Cameron
December 12th, 2006-
Why does Cameron’s name lift his party so much?
The headline figures in today Populus poll in the Times have the Tories at their lowest point since April and only two points ahead of Labour. The headline figures are with changes on last month: CON 34% (-2): LAB 33% (nc): LD 19% (-1).
These will be very disappointing figures for the Tories who only a week ago saw the party with an 8% lead with ICM. One of the factors has been an increase for “other” parties with Populus finding 4% for the Greens and 2% for UKIP.
It might be recalled that a year ago, in the polls taken after Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005, Populus was showing a Labour lead of 3% on the main voting intention question which was the best picture for Labour from any pollster. An ICM survey at almost the same time had Cameron’s party 1% ahead.
The main methodological differences between ICM and Populus are the weightings that are applied after people have said how they voted last time. The ICM approach is 1-2% more favourable to the Tories than the Populus one.
But the survey produced a very different picture when the named leader question was asked - “who would you vote for if it was Cameron’s Tories against Brown’s Labour and Campbell’s Lib Dems?
These are the shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 39% (+1): LAB 32% (-2%). So last month’s Tory lead of 4% on this question becomes 7% which is in line with what ICM found at the end of November.
So in every poll from every single different pollsters that has asked this question over the past year there has been an increase in the Tory position against Labour - a fact that will reinforce the efforts of Cameron and his team as they seek to present to the public a very different Conservative Party.
Clearly in a General Election campaign the proposition that will be put will be to support “Cameron’s Conservatives” not just the Tories.
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This finding underlines the point I have been making for months that neither Labour nor the Lib Dems have found a way of dealing with the challenge of the new Tory leadership in a way that resonates with voters. As Roy Hattersley observed a couple of months back - Labour has yet to land a punch on him.
Amongst the non-voting intention questions in the survey just over a third, 34% said that they think that he has been a good Chancellor and will be a good PM. But 23% said they thought he has been a good Chancellor but will not be a good prime minister.
These, like other non-voting intention questions from Populus and other pollsters include the views of many who will not vote and are much less important that those that ask about voting intention.
This is how the Tory lead-deficit on the PBC Polling Average of weighted surveys now looks. This comprises of results from Populus, ICM and YouGov.
A round-up of the latest political betting markets is here.
Mike Smithson
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I wonder about this question, Mike. If I, as a Lib Dem member, thought “who is Campbell?” - and then realise that they mean Ming, how does the man in the street react?
IIRC, in another poll they used the Christian names of the party leaders too. Would that not make a difference? Cameron is Cameron, despite the attempts of his marketers to get us to refer to him as “Dave”. I don´t. But I do think of Brown as “Gordon Brown” and Campbell as “Ming Campbell”.
> Populus: BAD for the Tories and Brown - GOOD for Cameron
Yet another sign that the Tories don’t have a Plan B if Cameron falls off his bicycle and under a bus tomorrow. As he goes, so goes the party.
That’s one problem we don’t have in the Lib Dems…
3. Surley the problem is with the lib dems if your leader doesn’t go under a bus
Tressage @ 2. The actual Populus wording for their question is:-
Now I’d like you to think ahead to the next election, expected in 3 or 4 years’ time. Imagine that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell. Which party would you vote for – or would you vote for another party or not vote at all?
mike what are acamerons personal ratings like - have they fallen or not?
re 6. I should be asleep! Populus does not seem to do personal ratings and has made the “named leader” question its speciality. In the ICM poll last week it was 48-29% to the question ”
“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job David Cameron is doing as leader of the Conservative Party?
The main personal ratings are found in Mori and YouGov - though you cannot compare because they ask different questions. A good list is here on Anthony Wells’s site
http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/leaders/cameron/
Sorry for O/T post but Alastair Matlock asked about how new Australian Labor leader Kevin Rudd would fare against John Howard. Well, the first definitive Newspoll is out, and early signs are good for Rudd:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20912490-601,00.html
When I posted here after Rudd’s election I said the key underlying figures that matter behind the inevitable swing to Labor were how Howard would perform verus Rudd on the two key questions:
1. Preferred PM
2. Better economic manager
Howard’s taken hits on both questions, but still comfortably ahead on both (the benefits of incumbency). Rudd however appears to have achieved bigger swings against Howard on these questions than the last “bright new thing” to lead the ALP, Mark Latham, did when he was first elected… the key will be how Rudd will perform in these polls in Jan-Feb, when polling in Australia shows a swing to incumbents (summer feel-good, etc). Politics hasn’t been this interesting in Australia for a long time. As one writer in the Australian (www.theaustralian.news.com.au) says today, “voters are undecided and ready to flirt”. Let’s see if Kevvie is ready to make eye contact and buy us a drink…
PS Andrea, in response to your previous questions: To my knowledge they are STILL counting the Victorian Legislative Council (upper house) results. There remains a chance that the Democratic Labor Party - the socially conservative Catholic minor party that split from Labor in the fifties, ended the Catholic:Protestant divide in our party system and transferred Catholic preferences to keep the Liberals in power for for over twenty years - is about to return from the electoral grave and pick up a seat in the Leg Co.
Just got back to civilisation after disliking Cameron from afar.
Wonder how long the Tories front man can keep up any lead in any poll, when after going away for a good hard think, they have come up with the strikingly original Tory idea of blaming the ‘breakdown’ of society on single mums.
You see, much as Cammy tries (and he is so trying, bless him), he cannot, he will not and he does not want to solve that biggest underlying problem in modern Conservatism i.e. Conservatism.
Ultimately, there appear to be a number of Conservatives who do not understand The Strategy, which is to string along the electorate all the way to the election without revealing who you are or what you are for. It is as big an admission that Conservatism as a political philosophy is as dead as socialism was when New Labour emerged.
The difference is Conservatives are encumbered by the underlying belief that the fabric of society should not change, and appear more intransigent in letting go of the old values than Labour was in the early 90s. It is the instinctive understanding of this that has seen the reluctance of many of the electorate to switch allegiance, despite having a leader who superficially is in in tune with 21st Century Britain.
If I was Brown, I would be happy with that poll. The ‘real’ figures show that Conservatism remains a preserve of about a third of the population, as it has done for the last decade or so. That there is a discrepency when leaders names are mentioned is more of a reflection that Labour are in a strange ‘interregnum’ than anything. It can only be positive for Labour that so few are willing to commit to vote for the Tories at the moment, and I would be doing the calculation and asking, if they aren’t willing to jump now, are they really willing to jump when Brown comes to town?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2500055,00.html
Is there any explanation why The Times in their article puts the difference at only 1%. 33% to 32%?
Anyway clearly a time for gamblers to put their shirts on Labour. The Tories have been performing tricks for a year now. The voters looked smiled and have finally started to walk away.
As for the hypothetical Brown test: I remember the same question being asked in relation to Ken Clarke and others during the Tory leadership. Clarke would have increased the Tory vote by around 12% against all comers! Does anyone believe the Tories would now be 12 points further ahead with Clarke?
re 10. My mistake Roger - being fixed and I need to do the chart again.
Others at 15!
Must be worries that the BNP will do well at Skerton West on Thursday. Not clear if the other parties are really taking them on head to head.
12. Surely a reflection that the lack of choice offered up to the electorate by the mainstream parties, who are all converged around the tiniest point means that more and more people are dropping off the edge. It is funny to think that the assumption is amongst most political strategists that people hate ideological divides, but in reality that can be taken too far as an assumption, and that growing numbers of people want to know how we can be governed differently in a way that answers some of the underlying questions. When mainstream therapies do not offer an answer, then people will seek out alternatives, regardless of whether it is quackery.
10-Roger: “Anyway clearly a time for gamblers to put their shirts on Labour.”
Not my shirt Roger!
As a student of horseracing form, I am always more impressed by consistently good ratings rather than erratic performances, even if the latter includes a strikingly high performance. If I were a Conservative, I would be happy enough with the consistent lead and not worried about the loss of the odd point or two.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t read much into the negative GB figures. Until he accedes, the responses won’t mean much. You could even argue that they are helpful in that they don’t raise unrealistic expectations.
O/T slightly, there was an interesting discussion a while back about the likelihood of a hung parliament. One poster was adamant that the probability was 90% and offered to do a Guest Slot on that theme. Was this idea taken any further?
Hypothetical questions are pointless. The voters will have at least two years to judge Brown before the next GE. After two years, they will have something concrete to work on. The growth of the ‘others’, could affect the marginals. What is worrying for the Conservatives, is the voters seem to be saying ‘Like Dave, his party, no like! This could be a Callaghan type situation, Callaghan had high ratings, at the same time his party was becoming un-electable. After three election wins, and all the problems that inevitably brings, plus Iraq and Afghanistan, it is amazing that the government is what is literally neck-and-neck with the main opposition party, in any poll!
10. I think your hopes might be clouding your judgement there, Roger. There’s a long way to go to the next election and there’s a lot more that can go wrong for the government than for the opposition (as is always the case - governments get more scrutiny and exposure). At not much better than evens, there doesn’t seem to be much value unless you’re expecting to lay off some time soon after a sudden rise in Labour’s perceived chances.
If the Brown figures can be believed, then Labour’s figure should actually drop on him becoming leader, though like others, I’m not sure how much store can be set by them. Even so, the prospect of a Brown bounce producing the kind of shift that would move the market price is minimal if the polling evidence is anything to go by.
Cameron’s chances will no doubt continue to be written off by many who have their own agenda - whether they be Labour supporters or those on the right who believe that the ‘core vote’ strategy was correct but somehow the electorate got it wrong. Blair was also written off as a lightweight, as was Thatcher in 1975 (the housewife etc). So were Kinnock and IDS. The point is that at this stage we just there’s nowhere near enough evidence to say that Project Cameron is over or is doomed to fail. In fact, in this rather contadictory poll, there’s probably evidence to support or refute any half-sensible scenario.
“These, like other non-voting intention questions from Populus and other pollsters include the views of many who will not vote and are much less important that those that ask about voting intention.”
I disagree that they’re not important. If you’ve people who don’t vote, but like you, you can always try to bring them to vote next time. It can be easier than convince people who don’t like you to vote for you.
8. Alexander Drake, thanks for the update.
“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the job David Cameron is doing as leader of the Conservative Party?
Mike, I never know how to answer that question. Unhappy that he is succeeding in making the Conservative party electable again by taking Nu Labours clothes? Happy that lots of old Conservative voters are deserting the party? Surely your view of Cameron depends on where you are looking at him from.
I suspect the thing about Cameron, as it once was about Blair, is that people like a leader who tries to change his Party. Both Old Labour and High Tory have strong brand loyalties among, oh, say a sixth of the electorate each - and more or less negative associations for everyone else. But whilst you could vote for NuLab in the knowledge that it was more than just one man, Cameron’s offer seems to be just himself. And whilst a Tory trying to come to terms with the 21st century is endearing (and sometimes - unintentionally - a source of harmless fun - much as male efforts to come to terms with feminism were, a generation ago) voters may yet decide that that’s not enough.
Meantime, if I were GB I’d be desperate to stop the Deputy Leadership contest by any means short of demanding Prescott stay in the job. Nothing to do with its cost - everything to do with Brown’s Atlanticism, a part of his offer that is most definitely well past its sell-by date. For surely all the aspirants to the Deputyship will vie with each other in pointing out that GWB is the lamest of lame ducks (I doubt if even his daddy expects him to achieve anything in the two years he has left) - the inner-Party electorate is pretty Yank-averse, after all. And that’s before anyone asks them about Iraq …
Morning all :). Just a couple of quick thoughts. I wonder how many people have already decided how they’ll vote. I suspect there’s a lot of volatility out there.
Mike is of course right re: Cameron but there is a very long way to go. David Steel was always “liked” for all the good that did him. I suspect that the campaign itself will be hugely significant and the 6-12 month “phoney” war before that.
Yesterday, I opined that Cameron played well to that section of the electorate that doesn’t want to worry too much and simply wants soft reassurance from its politicians. They are turned off by the realpolitik of Brown and Reid. It’s interesting that Cameron hasn’t played the role of economic doomsayer like Howard, IDS and Hague. I think he may have realised that scaring people about the economy is counter-productive.
I think many on here underestimate how good Blair still is at blunting Tory political strategy and how much Teflon Tony will be missed by his party. I don’t Brown couldn’t have delivered the speech on integration last week - join in or move out - without seeming to be trying to push forward his “Britishness” and I doubt he could have brought himself to bring Cameron into the spech in a positive reference.
We will be in a new political gane next summer with Gordon’s strengths & weaknesses being tested on a very different stage and Cameron needing to start selling policies rather than direction.
Doesn’t this poll simply show that when people are reminded that GB will be leader of the Labour Party at the next GE some Blair voters desert Labour for the Tories?
It doesn’t mean Cameron is doing well, it just means that at present the thought of a Brown premiership is not quite as attractive to some as a Blair premiership.
I don’t see that this is anything for Cameron to take much comfort from.
Did you hear him on PM last night talking about “The family”? Oh dear, oh dear, what a muddle he got himself into when saying “families are best” but them admiting that his definition of family encompassed every possible combination you could think of!
19. IA. I disagree. If there’s no leadership contest, the Deputy race is vital IMO. The party needs a debate, they need to discuss a bit.
One of the great features of PBC poll discussions is that the significance of a particular finding is in direct proportion to the writer’s personal position. This is a condition that affects almost everybody from across the political spectrum.
Thus in 2004 when similar “named leader questions” were showing that a Brown-led Labour would do much better against Howard’s Tories than a Blair one we heard none of the comments that we are seeing today.
Where were the naysayers then?
The same goes with views of pollsters. If Mori, like when it had 10% Tory leads, is a good guide then it is also a good guide when it has Labour ahead.
22. “Doesn’t this poll simply show that when people are reminded that GB will be leader of the Labour Party at the next GE some Blair voters desert Labour for the Tories?”
I agree with this point. The key question is will Brown gain more than he loses from other parties (particularly Lib Dems) and those who didn’t vote last time??
22/25. Some monhts ago Populus included a question naming Blair as Lab leader and the result was different from the headline figures. I think it was after that poll that the “Cameron name mention effect” theory started to gain ground.
Toynbee play from Cameron makes him ever more popular - while traditional Tories who don’t realise it’s all a PR game go off in a huff and say they intend to vote UKIP.
It’s not Cameron who needs a Plan B. He’s doing very well. It’s Conservatives who want more traditional policies. They would do better to deselect europhile candidates and MP’s within the Conservative Party than run off to UKIP wastelands. Cameron has shown himself willing to challenge the Europhiles but he will need 100% support from the trads to take them on. If they run off to UKIP, they only delay the inevitable battle and help their enemies. Cameron should not ’sort’ the europhiles until he’s secured power. Any other strategy would be suicidal. Trad Tories should steady their nerve and stay with Cameron.
Good Morning all , Mike , I have not seen any publication of the Brand Index figures on party leader approval ratings recently although as I know last time I answered their questions they are still asking them . It would be interesting if there has been any change in the last month or two .
What a lot of good and interesting posts…..
I wonder whether it could ever be possible to work out the added value of any particular leader? I seem to remember Wilson was much more popular than Heath when Heath won in ‘70. Callaghan was miles more popular than Thatch in ‘79. Neither Thatch nor Foot were liked in ‘83. I would say Kinnock was preferred in ‘87 and probably ‘92. So not until ‘97 and beyond did the party with the most popular leader start winning!
The Tories are simply spinning a line and hope not to be caught out until they can smooth their way to GE victory. Fat chance! DC was hopeless on PM last night - all analysis of problems (shown up as fatuous) and absolutely no idea how to handle those problems.
And Dc is supposed to sweep the Tories to victory, eh? No at the moment he’s not, and certainly not on these figures!
27.”Toynbee play from Cameron makes him ever more popular ”
I think that the Tonybee thing had no effects on polls for the reason that I think not many people in the general public know who the hell this Polly is or what she thinks.
These recent polls show that the way back for the Conservatives may take more than 1 GE. This is one of the more interesting political periods.
No periods of time are exactly the same as an earlier one.
The Conservatives seem to be experiencing a period more like when Kinnock was changing Labour, than Blair’s start.
Labour is in the early stages of Major circa 1993 when sleaze was growing as an issue and the Conservatives were reducing themselves to a core vote. The economic problems are however starting to bite (1.2 million 16-24 year olds that are idle)
Yet the Conservative base is approaching the Councillor strength Labour had in mid-1990’s. May 2007 may bring the Conservatives to Labour’s councillor peak, a fatal blow for Labour’s long term future. A few more years of decline and the Labour’s councillor numbers will fall below LD.
Lib Dems are contemplating another 1974 but with a bigger block of votes and knowing that Blair/Brown deceived them in 1997 on “power sharing”. They wonder if they can hold onto their MPs at the GE and really “prepare for Govt”.
[19] Andrea, I wasn’t giving my opinion on what would be good for Labour but what would be good for Brown. A leadership coronation while the political debate within his party is held by proxy, as it were, is (yet more) uncharted water for the British political system. It’s worth recalling that the post of Deputy Leader was invented to stop Morrison from challenging Attlee back in the 1940s, the party had managed happily without it before then.
It was always a consolation prize for runners-up until 1994 - George Brown, Roy Hattersley etc. Now it seems more like the Americans’ Veep - an opportunity to “balance the ticket” - and since, in tribal terms, pretty much all Gordon lacks is femininity, I still expect him to twist arms for a coronation, presumably of Margaret Beckett - who, come to think of it, is the closest female approximation of Prescott the party has …
re 28. I rely on YouGov to provide this data to me. I last asked in November and have heard nothing since.
Andrea/IA. Is there to be a deputy contest before the leadership contest? I must have missed the announcement. Do you know when it’s happening?
The point our host makes about how much better ‘Cameron’s tories’ perform than the ‘conservative party’ appears to be sound. Quoting opinion polls seems to support the hypothesis, and makes the view look authoritive.
But that is not how the tory party presents itself now. Nor will it try to sell itself as ‘Cameron’s tories’ at the next GE.
Which rather undermines the point.
[35] I’ve always assumed that Prescott would retire when Blair did. If anyone knows otherwise, no doubt they’ll pipe up
37. I think he confirmed it in his conference speech. He said something like “This will be my last conference as your deputy leader”
23. I agree with Andrea about the need for some sort of deputy leadership contest. I just don’t see how Labour can get up any momentum and sense of renewal without the coverage a contest will provide.
I am still not convinced that when Brown becomes leader there will automatically be a boost. I can’t think of another future leader in recent times who has been more trailed in the media as the successor,
in 2005 it was vote Blair get Brown.
Brown’s personal ratings IIRC reached a peak before the 2005 GE and have been declining since.
The changes are within the MOE. However, all the predictions on the board yesterday were for a Tory score in the 36-39 range. Tyson’s comment last night that if the main parties compete on green issues the Greens do well sounds right. If you take on a party on its core issue (as the Tories are doing with us on public services), you have to persuade people that you’re actually better than the party who specialise in the issue - otherwise you just reinforce them by reminding people of the issue.
Briefly recapping what I said late last night: The result contradicts my ‘convergence’ theory as the leadership change approaches, but I assume it’ll happen sooner or later as voters take the impending change on board. I think the (modest) changes reflect (a) a gently rising irritation with the perceived fluffiness of the Tory approach and (b) mild dissatisfaction with GB after hostile coverage of the PBR. If I have to choose, I prefer doing well in the concrete question that the hypothetical one, but I still think it’s impossible to predict the position a year from now - it could be close or either main party could have a significant lead, or we could even have had a General Election!
The changes are within the MOE. However, all the predictions on the board yesterday were for a Tory score in the 36-39 range. Tyson’s comment last night that if the main parties compete on green issues the Greens do well sounds right. If you take on a party on its core issue (as the Tories are doing with us on public services), you have to persuade people that you’re actually better than the party who specialise in the issue - otherwise you just reinforce them by reminding people of the issue.
The changes are within the MOE. However, all the predictions on the board yesterday were for a Tory score in the 36-39 range. Briefly recapping what I said late last night: The result contradicts my ‘convergence’ theory as the leadership change approaches, but I assume it’ll happen sooner or later as voters take the impending change on board. I think the (modest) changes reflect (a) a gently rising irritation with the perceived fluffiness of the Tory approach and (b) mild dissatisfaction with GB after hostile coverage of the PBR. If I have to choose, I prefer doing well in the concrete question that the hypothetical one, but I still think it’s impossible to predict the position a year from now - it could be close or either main party could have a significant lead, or we could even have had a General Election!
The obvious thing, is for Cameron to cross the floor and join Nu-Labour, he can then stand as deputy Leader, he’ll probably win. Everyone will then be satisfied. Cameron can then oust Brown, he’ll be PM, then he can call a GE win it, Re-cross the floor, hey presto the Tories have won!. N.B. Lord Archer do not, I repeat do not, pinch that as the plot of your next book.
I had an additional commented that got trapped by moderation - have realised why. The hyphenated word below contains the name of a drug…
Tyson’s comment last night that if the main parties compete on green issues the Greens do well sounds right. If you take on a party on its core issue (as the Tories are doing with us on public services), you have to persuade people that you’re actually better than the party who speci-alise in the issue - otherwise you just reinforce them by reminding people of the issue.
First things first- compliments to Mike. I realised the power of this site when I came on here rather than the Times website to read about the poll. I wonder how many others did the same!
A worse poll for the Tories than I expected. If Ridell is right and it’s a swing to UKIP that does it, that’s worrying for cameron, as the Tory right will have a potent argument.
Despite that, I suspect we’re still in a Tory lead of between 2-5% in the real world. I’m pretty relaxed about that as that puts Labour in a more than decent position for a mid-term 3rd term government.
On the Cameron/Brown stuff, I’m willng to bet that a large proportion of the difference is labour supporters on the voting intention question shifting to DK/WS. It’s been the case in most of the polls I’ve seen and makes sense now.
IA. I misinterpreted your post at 19. When you said Brown would be desperate to stop a deputy leadership contest I hadn’t realized he was to be lesder by then!
41.”The obvious thing, is for Cameron to cross the floor and join Nu-Labour, he can then stand as deputy Leader, he’ll probably win”
and what if he’ll be outpolled even by Harriet “I’m a Lady” Harman?
38. He did. The assumption, is that he will resign when Blair goes, though IIRC there was a story he put out that he might not go at exactly the same time. I think this was briefed mostly to get the dep leadership candidates to be a bit quieter.
I am quite happy with 34% - 33%, and even though polls are still meaningless we can all get our oar in and have a say on what we think is going on in the country. I agree that perhaps some people are getting fed-up with the lack of policy detail from Cameron, and the PBR received quite a mixed -press, so no joy for GB. The hypothetical question is meaningless IMHO, as we honestly don’t know how people will recact when he really IS standing and waving in fron of No 10.
38. Here’s the story. From the Indy 25th Sept. Though it was immediately shown to be by the end of Conference by Prescott’s speech.
“John Prescott has told allies he will stay on as deputy leader of the Labour Party after Tony Blair steps down, if there is no challenge to Gordon Brown.
The Deputy Prime Minister’s friends denied a report he was intending to stay on to rehabilitate his reputation after the Tracey Temple affair and the row over his links to Philip An-schutz, the American owner of the Millennium Dome.
Mr Prescott has made it clear to friends he will step down if Mr Brown is challenged for the leadership, triggering a full-blown election for the deputy’s post.”
As I say, think the story existed mostly to get Dpe Leadership candidates to be more subtle during conf.
From Labour’s point of view the ideal would be a deputy contest starting early next year and ending just before the locals…..
and Hilary Benn winning and his father appearing tearfully on all the news stations saying how proud he is the night before the Scottish elections……..
48. hmm self censorhip. Should read “it was shown to be a four letter word beginning with c and ending in p by the end of conference”
Why is it that people believe one set of figures - the main voting intention - but then choose to find reasons to ignore the other. Last week it was the other way round. People ignored the main voting intention figures from ICM showing Labour 8% adrift but put the focus on one question which had Brown ahead of Cameron.
As I posted yesterday I thought that Cameron was moving downwards. The exact opposite has happened. As my headline says - this poll is bad for the Tories and Brown but good for Cameron.
If anyone is interested, I have received not one but two emails from Annette Brooke MP in response to my long post last night, which I said I would post on here:
1)I do hope that you have found our Paper, Stronger Families ,Brighter Futures different from previous Lib Dem approaches. Yes, we haven’t been prescriptive on a view of the family but we have given great emphasis to the importance of relationships and the family. I have the background of having been married for 37 years!
to the same person!) I am a founder and Trustee of Poole Community Family Trust which promotes strengthening relationships, primarily through the churches but not entirely. I do believe that the aspect of loving relationships within a family are most important and I don’t think any tax break would have contributed to the longevity of my marriage! However, we are as a Party looking seriously at the tax system where there is a disincentive for partners to live together or get married. The article in the Observer on Sunday was interesting on a clearly loving family which was not as conventional as mine! (in
Huyton.)
Regards Annette
Annette Brooke
MP for Mid Dorset & North Poole
Liberal Democrat Spokesperson for Children & Families
2)To add to my earlier reply, I should have said stable loving relationships are all important and we do need to have programmes available to support - I would also emphasise the relationship education within PSHE, I think that pre marriage courses are important, I think relationship/marriage MOT’s are a good idea! Regards Annette
I was very impressed by such a prompt and thorough response (the first email came through within an hour of me sending it last night!) and pleased with the overall tone. Annette Brooke is hardly a household name, but a highly respected LD who I think deserves more recognition for her excellent work as a spokesperson for the party,
How can a poll be good for Cameron and not the Conservatives? Unfortunately they are inextricably intertwined!
Detailed figures are here..
http://www.populuslimited.com/pdf/2006_11_07_Times.pdf
ooops, eagerness got the better of me.. that was last month!
52 Tpfkar, Sorry to be cynical, but do you think that Annette Brook wrote the e-mail, or one of her minions?
re 53. I think that Brand Cameron is regarded in a very different way from Brand Conservative - and this has been a consistent finding for more than a year. That’s what’s fascinating at the moment.
see Cameron ‘lost ‘ his tube ticket the other day-and still managed not to pay the penalty fare (as all other normal travellers would have had to do)—Christ what with the labour leader starting and continuing a war for his own ego and the tory leader snivelling out of paying te correct tube fare/fine what a country we have!!1–
51. Mike because one question asks people how they intend to vote now, and another asks them how they would vote under a future hypothetical.
If we were talking about shampoos you’d trust the answet to the question “what shampoo will you buy today” a lot more than you’d trust the answer to the question “In a few months time which Shampoo will you buy from a choice of healthy looking Pantene, L’Oreal with a new mystery ingredient and Clairol with fruit essences.”
Andrea -update on the Victorian State Election: DLP gain 2 seats, Labor lose balance of power in the Upper House. Final results according to The Age Labor 19, Liberal 15, National 2, Green 2, DLP 2
Lin
Tpfkar. It was a good post by you last night and it’s nice that an MP takes their responsibility so seriously. But if anyone wants a society where politicians to get involved in the nature of family relationships I suggest they go to Saudi Arabia.
To hear Tories regularly complain about the ‘nanny state’ and then watch IDS and his leader spout such prescriptive tosh must have sent most thinking women retching to the bathroom. How to lose womens votes in one easy lesson.
re 59. Then why were you not making the same point with last week’s ICM poll? People just pick and choose to what suits their position.
I expected a 2% populus lead. But fwiw, I don’t believe this poll. I think our lead is 5% and the local elections will be a massacre for Lab, providing a second polling “tipping point” as they did last year.
I predict the next poll will be better for the Tories. Let’s see.
62. Mike, maybe he hasn’t made that point about ICM because he hasn’t even posted that day (probably having better things to do).
63 “I don’t believe this poll…”
Watch it, Commentator; Mike will tell you off!
36 David Kendrick Look here, that is exactly what the party does.
http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=policy.home.page
60. DLP = Victorian state Family First perhaps?
If there are constant reports of Tories defecting to UKIP, maybe the public/media will become convinced that the Conservatives are clearing out of ‘extremist’ opinion. Lab/Lib defectors will feel more at home in a Cameron-lead centre-ground party. This week the outflow has clearly exceeded the inflow, however.
60. Thanks Lin.
More evidence that the Digger may be on the turn. His apostle Irwin goes before.
“Labour MPs can’t wait to approve Brown’s new taxes, some of which they hope will fund £100,000 salaries; they might consider that an increasingly uncompetitive economy will have less and less wealth to tax.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/12/12/do1201.xml&sSheet=/opinion/2006/12/12/ixopinion.html
re 65. Fair point. For a pile of reasons I am in a foul mood today.
68 Tapestry You said “This week the outflow has clearly exceeded the inflow, however.”
How many both ways would you say?
71. “For a pile of reasons I am in a foul mood today”
I suspected it. You were in a fighting form in previous comment.
Cameron would say: “be positive and let the sunshine win the day”
No-one has yet mentioned the inflation figures today… which are terrible (scans the sky for falling snowflakes) and somewhat unexpected. Markets haven’t taken it too badly but if you believe in a coming economic disaster for Dr Brown to deal with there is a fair amount of evidence here.
“To hear Tories regularly complain about the ‘nanny state’ and then watch IDS and his leader spout such prescriptive tosh must have sent most thinking women retching to the bathroom. How to lose womens votes in one easy lesson. ”
What makes you think that women share your distaste for traditional family structures?
62.
I think I’ve been fairly consistent in my view of these polls which is, I restate, that hypothetical match ups are not good predictors of what will happen, and that a large proportion of the difference in Cameron/Brown performance is due to some “labour supporters” answering Don’t Know to a hypothetical question about who they’d vote for under a different labour leader.
Here’s a blog post from November saying the same thing as i said today.
http://britishspin.blogspot.com/2006_11_19_archive.html#296400383342022921
Of course, as I say in that post, none of this means that the “Don’t knows” will come back to Labour under brown- it depends what he does as leader.
As for the ICM poll you mention, I didn’t post on that thread, but if you want my views, the best PM question there is ludicrous because AIUI, it includes both Brown and Reid and in any case, who would be best PM and who you’d vote for are very different questions. I regard it with even less interest than the hypothetical match up, which at least is about voting intentions.
Couple of betting prices which may be of interest.
For those who think a snap election is a real possibility then William Hill offer 33/1 2007 and 10/1 2008.
On the next Labour leader market a firm I’ve not previously heard of before, “10 bet”, offer GB at a stand out price of 1/4 and Reid at only 5/2.
74. The economy is due a downturn at some point in Brown’s period as PM if he goes on for a reasonable period before calling a GE. Its just economic fact that these things work in cycles. It is how much his policies contribute to the downturn and subsequent pain. Anyone can do policy when economic times are decent its when they are not that past decisions and current policy come back to bite.
74.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6171617.stm
Inflation at a near decade high - bad news for people with mortgages I guess..
75. Most people in this country aim for the traditional family unit (or a close variation). Not all succeed (at least not first time anyway) but theres a basic underlying desire for it.
79 It might be good news for some people with mortgages. Better to be a borrower than a lender when inflation is high (as long as your pay rises with inflation).
2.7% is higher than normal, but certainly not ‘high’ by historical standards.
[66] The tories would be well advised to sell themselves as ‘Cameron’s Conservatives’, as MS observes. And you’ve found a place where they do. But that is an exception.
Sadly, MS makes a much more powerful point when he says that each piece of news is interpreted on here from the bias of the poster. And the success of this site—the weight it now carries—means that this will get worse, not better. Socialists like the excellent Roger and redflag are aware that they cannot afford to criticize GB here. It is simply too damaging.
Paradoxically, the more influence this site has, the less party supporters can risk posting objective criticisms of their own side.
81 that would only be good if real interest rates fall… which is unlikely, or if your mortgage is fixed rate, which is very unusual in the UK.
Unfortunately 2.7 is the harmonised rate… which is very high by the little history we have. RPI is 3.9% which is pretty high by the standards of the last decade, though for much of my lifetime I guess that would have been considered low. But then so would 7% interest rates which if they were introduced now would certainly cause a deep recession.
82. 2.7% is a record high
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/cpinr1206.pdf
I am pleased to note that the latest Uk opinion polls continue to show the rise of “others”.
83 It’s not as simple as that, Jon. Inflation will probably raise the value of your asset, probably raise your income (if you are in the public sector at least - lots of inflation-linked deals), probably increase your interest payments. But your debt is fixed in nominal terms so it becomes easier to pay it off in the medium term. If you have a big mortgage you have some tough years, but as long as you survive you look in better shape.
Inflation is very bad news for pensioneers who either don’t own or have paid off their mortgage. They cannot easily touch the appreciation in asset values, and their income is least likely to reflect changes in prices (at the very least it will lag behind).
Nick Palmer (42): “Tyson’s comment last night that if the main parties compete on green issues the Greens do well sounds right. If you take on a party on its core issue (as the Tories are doing with us on public services), you have to persuade people that you’re actually better than the party who speci-alise in the issue - otherwise you just reinforce them by reminding people of the issue.”
And by the same token, if Cameron keeps going on about Lib Dem issues - albeit in a very imprecise way - this surely boosts support for the Lib Dems. People were speculating the other week how it was that the Lib Dem percentage was staying so high (relatively high, of course). Now we have the explanation - all up to the Cameron effect.
Thanks for your correction at 5, Mike. I had not realised that your direct quotation in your article was paraphrasing…. >
Peter… the effect you describe certainly exists for all debtors, but generally when inflation rises real interest rates in fact have to rise to bring it back under control (and real wages fall and nominal asset value often do too in response to real rate rises). Usually periods of high inflation are pretty terrible for everyone except perhaps the owners of index linked debt who can wait until assets get cheap again I guess.
In particular in our housing market if RPI really got out of control I would expect house prices to be hammered as there is a very great deal of leveraged ownership… far more so even than in the 90’s as speculators have come to believe that interest rates will never rise again.
“What makes you think that women share your distaste for traditional family structures?”
I don’t. I suspect they share my distaste for politicians prescibing what family structures should look like. I probably know more people who live outside the traditional married structure than within it. I’m pretty certain that these people have made choices. The idea that IDS should tell them that he has a better way ……would I suggest get most of them climbing up the wall!
Even those who have chosen the traditional structure would I suggest despise the fact that their choice has been blessed by IDS, Cameron or anyone else (who isn’t a clergyman!)
78 According to many blinkered Conservative posters on here the economy has been due a downturn since 1997 and of course Gordon Brown has been an unmitigated disaster as Chancellor . This has never been the view of the vast majority of the electorate who view things rather more objectively . Some of those forecasting the Populus poll yesterday with more optimistic Conservative figures were saying that it had been a good week for Conservatives , rather strange I thought after their well publicised candidate problems in several constituencies .
90 Sure - the danger at present is that house prices will fall back significantly. Negative equity and high interest rates - that brings back memories of life under Thatcher and Major.
Mark… GB has had one superb policy of course (but let us not remind them where he pinched it from).
93 only “and” should be in bold. Sorry.
If Tories support this and compain about the Nanny state they are total hypocrits.
Then again, I suppose IDS and Cameron have a particular take on the “Nanny” State anyway. They have very little personal experience of normal family life. (My life would be sooo much easier if at every problem I could throw a few thousand at it) Perhaps each ideal married family should have a nanny too.
The Tory Nanny State
I expect Snowflake is madly composing a thesis right now on how this is actually cracking news and proves the greatness of GB.
Something along the lines of how goods prices need to catch up with asset prices otherwise the gap between rich and poor will continue to grow maybe?
57. “I think that Brand Cameron is regarded in a very different way from Brand Conservative - and this has been a consistent finding for more than a year.”
Mike, over the last couple of weeks there was a lot of negative media coverage regarding Cameron’s first year with some pretty dismissive comments from political columnists. Is there any evidence to show that negative media coverage does affect the conservative headline figure while having the opposite effect on Cameron’s personal ratings?. I am thinking about the way some of the more personal attacks from Labour have backfired.
I am not happy with the poll numbers today and they prove to me that the party of which I am proud to be a member has much further to go to change itself.
I wonder whether the recent rumpus over one or two seats, plus the surprisingly reserved coverage of Camerons first year by the broadcast media have highlighted the fact that Cameron leads a party that at times does not seem to be particularily enthusiastic about his change agenda.
Fortunately (for us) the world of politics -like business and sport- has become ever more personality focused and Cameron can achieve things all on his own that Kinnock and Major in their time could not.
The economy will not go on growing for ever, house prices will not go on rising for ever; there must be a downturn sometime. When that downturn comes, it might not actually bring any benefit to the Tories. During a period of uncertainty, a more familiar political figure, GB for instance might have more appeal, than an unknown quantity, DC for instance. ‘He clung to nurse, for fear of worse’
Good article as ever. Interesting to see that the Brown Cameron difference appears to have grown again. I wonder when the next ICM and Yougov polls are out.
(Shame about the headline figures though)
93 and 100. Not everyone would mind a house price crash. Prospective first time buyers would be delighted. It all depends on where you are on the property ladder.
102
I agree the present house price situation is disgraceful. Resentment and bitterness is starting to develope, which can’t be good for our society in general.
Marcus (99) - You sound almost depressed!
But I think you are spot on with your diagnosis:
“…Cameron leads a party that at times does not seem to be particularily enthusiastic about his change agenda.”
I don´t think most Tories are the least bit enthusisastic about what Cameron is trying to do. The only enthusiastic ones are those desperate to get themselves elected (starting with Cameron himself, of course).
It is as if the Lib Dems had elected as their leader somebody brought up in public relations, who had abandonded all their traditional policies and principles and started making soothing noises about introducing hanging and flogging, forced repatriation, selective schooling, privatisation, ID cards and reduced taxation for the super-wealthy. The traditional Tory agenda, in short.
It wouldn´t be the same party, and I think there would be resistence. In our case it has not happened. In the case of you Tories, it is happening - mutandis mutatis, of course - and lots of your members are surely feeling lost and unwanted.
I don´t think that a policital party can abandon its identity so easily, just because it has an unscrupulour leader desperate for power.
92. Mark r
Read my post.
There wasn’t a party political point its a statement of fact, economies go in cycles, so don’t make one out of it.
96. How do you know what experience they have?
If you want to say they are crap politicians go ahead. Stop your resentment of the fact they earn decent money and have done, in relative terms, well in their chosen career, its pathetic.
The ‘other’ ratings are getting really high. The three big parties used to sum to around 93%. Now they’re only 86%. Who are the main beneficiaries? Green, UKIP, socialist, Plaid and SNP, BNP, independents? And are any of them competent enough at the ground war to benefit at all?
Brown as a good chancellor. I read recently that there’s a relationship with the ‘hollowing out’ of industry in the West. Manufacturing industry can be divided into design, manufacture and marketing. The manufacturing is lower skilled, lower profit for rich countries, and crucially much more volatile. Therefore, as companies transfer the manufacturing function to poor countries, our economies get much more stable, and that’s at least one reason why we haven’t had a recession for so long. Also the difficult bit was getting out of hte recession slowly enough not to stoke inflation, and the hnit for that was taken by the Tories.
On Cameron’s lack of policies. I can’t make my mind up whether
(a) voters don’t care about policies, but they’re influenced by pundits in the media. If the pundits say he doesn’t stand for anything, is a lightweight, is all spin and no substance etc, they’ll turn against him. Or
(b) voters vote on mood music. Cameron’s best off not coming out with serious policy AT ALL until he gets into government. Then he can do what the civil servants suggest with a bit of a twist towards low tax, authoritarian plus lots of gimicks on cuddly and caring.
106. Yes we are descending into nastiness again today, aren’t we? Lots of cheap insults flying about.
Apparently Cameron is disappointed that so many of his A listers are only interested in seats in London and the Home Counties…… Sometimes you’ve just got to feel sorry for Cameron!
Incidentally I’ve just read ConHome (amazing the rubbish you read when you’re convalescing!)and there does seem to be serious doubt about Cameron. And not from UKIPers or ranters-just standard Tories. I suppose if I think Cameron’s OK it would be surprising if he could also appeal to Conservatives!
With both Labour and the Tories hovering around the mid-thirties in the polls, and the Lib Dems hovering around 20% I see no reason to change my view that the next election is still wide open and could go any way depending upon events, the economy etc.
Sorry you’re in a bad mood Mike. Hope work cheers you up(!)
On single issue parties. The Tories can’t boost the Lib Dems in the way Nick P suggests parties might boost the Greens, because the Lib Dems aren’t a single-issue party. If Cameron goes on about the environment convincingly, voters who care about the environment will choose between green and Tory. The lib Dems will get forgotten.
104. Ha ha ha! I was a bit down today but you have cheered me up!
“forced repatriation, selective schooling, privatisation, ” …. “In our case it has not happened” - David Laws for Lib Dem leader anyone?
You -from the ’sit on every fence’ Lib Dem perspective seem to be suggesting that shifting a political emphasis is a no-no, this from a party famous for saying two things to two audiences at the same time!!
I know of Lib Dem council candidates in the North ‘making soothing noises’ (as you put it ) about exactly some of the topics you laugh at - selective schooling, privatisation, ID cards and reduced taxation for the super-wealthy to name a few in a shameless attempt to encourage anti-Labour tactical voting by Tories while in the South they say completely the opposite in a desperate effort to maintain anti-Tory TV’s!
Where I agree with you is that a party can’t change or abondon it’s identity easily.
Luckily I have no desire to abandon Conservative principles that go back to Disreali and nor do any of the Conservatives I know.
We do want to do is to get away from the absurd stereotype that you and the Labour Party happily espouse (and we unfortunately did so little to counter for years) and the frustration is that some in the party have been slow to recognise that need.
RE 109, Sam, yes to some extent it is very much all to play for.
108. Yes Roger - I read that creature Heffer’s last article in the Torygraph and was astounded at the level of bile heading Cameron’s way from traditional Tories.
106 IDS driving his classic convertible in the Cotswolds with trademark cap and goggles; Cameron conspiring to market the Tories with his cabal of old Etonians.
Sorry Yokel- but neither particularly represents modern Britain, and when they begin to talk about the day to day realities of life here, do either have the first idea of what they are talking about ??
I doubt it.
Incidentally, IDS was and is an appallingly bad politician. Cameron conversely is rather an effective one.
114. What is modern Britain excatly? You are welcome to espouse what this phenomenon is….
All day every day all you lefties want to talk about is DC - you are obsessed with him - it must be such a compliment to him
Well alien though it is to many on here some people only vote Conservative because they want a Conservative government, not out of some tribal loyalty or liking for the colour blue.
113 - Heffer is UKIP so of course he hates Dave.
RE 118, Ted, he is also many other things as well. Good riddence to bad rubbish I say!
Glad to hear you are feeling a bit more cheerful now, Marcus (111).
“We do want to do is to get away from the absurd stereotype that you and the Labour Party happily espouse (and we unfortunately did so little to counter for years) and the frustration is that some in the party have been slow to recognise that need.”
Some (many/most) of your traditional Tories see no need to change, because “the absurd stereotype” is what they sincerely believe in. So the change of image that Chameron is attempting to impose is profoundly disturbing. The Tories of the Thatcher years were the real, authentic Tories, Marcus. You all revelled in it then. There is no turning back for you to the days of Heath.
Interesting Poll…..
Andrea, do you have big boobs?
If yes i would like to paint you in the same vain as the PM’s wife did!
114 Indeed
106 Yokel: If I have no right to comment on their life choices and experience, then they sure as hell don’t have the right to comment on mine. Yet that is exactly what they have done. Hence, IMO I am perfectly entitled to talk about them.
So I still feel that a person who has the option to afford a full time nanny (for whatever reason - earned or not) has very biased view of how easy it is to manage childcare and a relationship and had better shut up about how others do it.
If everyone had a Nanny I am sure that marriage and child rearing would be alot easier.
120. The only Tory who would have wanted a return to the days of Ted Heath was Ted Heath. He is dead, btw.
123. Its envy thats all…you picked on their income….
I think the focus should be on feckless parents (whether one or two ) than saying marriage is the answer. It isnn’t.
122. Andrea is extremely voluptuous.
A 50 year old Tory drinking partner of mine wishes the Tories would return to paternalistic Macmillan-style One Nation Toryism-I suspect DC wishes this too,and if he does lever the Conseravtives back to the centre ground,it would be good for democracy to have a credible,and decent alternative to vote for
128. Then WHY did DC write shuch a right-wing manifesto?
129: Did he write it in the sense of devising it, or did he merely articulate it?
120. I suspect I know a great many more Conservative members than you do; so you won’t mind if I don’t accept your expertise on what Conservatives do or do not sincerely believe in.
Political parties don’t neccessarily change their philosophy - we certainly aren’t trying to and don’t need to.
“The Tories of the Thatcher years were the real, authentic Tories, Marcus. You all revelled in it then” - of course we did; by and large we still do - as indeed the Lib Dems and Labour do to since none of you are proposing changing or reversing anything substantial that Mrs T came up with.
Even your lot have finally accepted, for instance, all the privatisations (indeed, you would go further than Mrs Thatcher by privatising the post office), curbing union power, shifting tax from income to consumption, and hey, you now (eighteen years too late) agree that the 40% top rate of tax is right!
Without defending that manifesto,which within a few paragraphs made me want to vomit,I suspect Michael Howard wanted a reasonably ‘true blue’ manifesto,and also knew hw had negligible chance of over-turning the Labour majority last time