So what is happening with Cameron’s ratings?
December 13th, 2006-
The numbers that will do whatever you want them to do
From the chart above it is possible to make just about any case you want over how David Cameron is being perceived. If you want to show that he’s moving up then just make your base point the YouGov July survey and compare with the latest numbers. If you want to show that he’s going down make your base survey February 2006.
The selective approach to all sorts of polling data is seen almost daily amongst so-called professional pundits. They have a feeling that something is happening so they look for the numbers that back their hunch. They might well be right - but they might be wrong.
So for gamblers and others trying to predict political outcomes you have to bring a bit more rigour into the process.
Firstly if you are trying to determine trends with any poll finding you have to look at the results from the same pollster to the same question over a period of time. Comparisons are only valid when you compare like with like.
Secondly it’s a good idea never to base a conclusion from one line of data from one poll from one pollster. So, as regular visitors might have noticed, I am now seeking to use charts a lot more so we can get a better medium-term view of how things are evolving using a range of firms.
With personal approval ratings only two pollsters regularly ask the same question - YouGov and Mori and with the former the internet pollster can vary the wording. So the YouGov numbers are based on the “well or badly” question while those for Mori are of findings from the “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?” question.
The reason why Cameron appears to do better with YouGov is probably down to methodology. The Mori numbers are based on all respondents - not the “those certain to vote” who make up the group on which its headline voting figures are calculated. YouGov does not have a turnout filter but, unlike More, does weight on the basis of what people said they did at the last election.
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What’s common to both pollsters is that there has been a clear increase in the number of negative responses as people have got to know the new Tory leader better and both a showing a decrease in the positive numbers compared with the leader’s first quarter in the job.
The positive figures with YouGov have moved down just a notch while there was a sharp decline when Mori last asked it. It will be interesting to see if this continues in the latest survey.
Mike Smithson
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“Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?” is surely not a well worded question. For instance if I as a Lib Dem think that he is performing badly in his job then I may well be pleased so the answer for me is ‘Satisfied’ whereas a Conservative with the same view would answer ‘Dissatisfied’ as they wopuld be unhappy. And of course the same applies if our view is reversed.
Result: Garbage question results in garbage stats.
That’s possible, but in practice I think very few people do answer it in the way you suggest, KJH?
For example, when IDS’s ratings started to tumble, from the Summer of 2002 onwards, it was because people didn’t think he was doing a good job as Tory leader, not because Labour voters suddenly felt he was a threat to their party.
It is often said (not sure why) that the less interested people are in politics the better their opinion of David Cameron, so the filter explanation seems valid. But is there anyway of getting the figures for “certain to vote” (or indeed the YouGov figures for all voters)?
(I´m more interested in validating the yougov panel than the electoral implications btw - as you say, the general trend is clear.)
3 I agree with that. I think both questions boil down to Cameron: good thing/bad thing? for most voters.
As I mentioned the other day , the other survey that regularly polls views on the party leaders is the Yougov BrandIndex survey but nothing seems to have been published here for some weeks now . By a coincidence I actually was asked to take part in this on Monday .
Who’s this David Cameron? Did I miss something?
7,You ain’t missed much
3, Sean - I agree. I felt like being pedantic. I hate stuff that is logically sloppy (Open door for any future cock ups by me here).
It is clear that in recent weeks there has been a move away from DC amongst the right wing. If DC just sticks to the path he is on and adds statements on a few more issues, he can reel them back in.
The Mori numbers are the most volatile which is to be expected.
Earlier indications are that Brown will take back some voters from Lib Dems. Recently Brown has sounded more Blairite than Blair so those wavering LDs are unlikely to rush back. When he does takeover, is when we can start to see if its a two headed race or a race to share power with LDs.
10. ‘It is clear that in recent weeks there has been a move away from DC amongst the right wing’
If this is based on Populus finding 6 more UKIP voters than a month ago I’m not sure we can really say ‘it is clear…’.
Here’s a thought. The polls are bunkum. This site used to have such a healthy scepticism about them. Now it can’t exist without them.
2. I don’t think most people take the question that way, but nonetheless I agree there is a difference between the two questions - they are not asking the same thing. Hence I don’t think it would be illogical to have a positive view on one and a negative view on the other, perhaps explaining the different results.
e.g. in my case, as a Lib Dem:
- Do I think Cameron has done a good job as leader so far? Yes, I think he has. He’s brought unity and confidence to the Conservatives, as well as some new ideas, put more pressure on the government, and hasn’t made any major mistakes thus far (EPP withdrawl and Polly Toynbee notwithstanding).
- But am I *satisfied* with the job he’s done so far? No. He’s done some work to adopt a more liberal/green agenda and move the Tories towards the centre ground, but not enough from my point of view. He’d have to pull the party further from its roots than he has so far for me to be satisfied with him (and therefore to attract my vote).
Does that make sense? Or am I being completely confused and hypocritical?
12 You make a very valid point. At this stage in the game, especially with the more exotic lines of questioning like this, there are too many variables to tell very much.
Much more accurate are regular monthly tracker polls asking exactly the same question(s) which is what the parties run for internal consumption.
All we really can tell is that Cameron is a net vote winner and Brown is a net vote loser; we also think that at the moment Brown tends to encourage redeemable ex-Labour voters not to vote tactically for the Lib dems and Cameron is appealing to soft Lib Dem voters so a Brown/Cameron fight will tend to put pressure on the Lib Dem vote share.
14.”redeemable ex-Labour voters not to vote tactically for the Lib dems ”
? Who are the redeemable ex Lab voters?
Labour people who hate Tony Blair.
Point of information:
Jack W said in the previous thread: “Murdo Fraser MSP, the Scottish Conservative Deputy Leader, has proposed that the Stone of Destiny on which the Kings and Queens of Scots were crowned be removed fron Edinburgh Castle to its original site of Scone Palace in Perthshire.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/tayside_and_central/6174183.stm
Now, I hate to be a pedant (actually I love it!), but the Stone of Destiny was never located at “Scone Palace”, which was only built in 1808. The coronation stone was actually located at the Augustinian Scone Abbey (which a wee bit confusingly was also referred to as the “Palace of the Abbots”), founded c.1114, until looted as war booty by Edward I of England in 1297, during the long First War of Scottish Independence (1296–1328).
I’m not sure if I agree with Murdo Fraser’s proposal (in fairness it is hardly “his” proposal - tons of people have suggested this). How about locating it at the Scottish National War Memorial?
Marius: yes, I see what you mean by “overstretch” - Labour are under pressure from all sides. But that makes it even more remarkable that they seem to be totally ignoring the threat from the Lib Dems and the Tories - 90% of their fire seems to have been aimed at the SNP, with most of the balance being angry sniping at their Lib Dem “allies” (hrmmm… ).
Regarding the Scottish local election ballot paper design: the problem with grouping by party is that the alphabetical bias then accrues unfairly to parties whose initial letter comes closer to the letter A. It is no coincidence that Labour wants a system that puts the Scottish National Party miles down a very long ballot paper.
16. thanks Marcus Wood
O/T but what do LibDems think of Ming’s approach today? Seems to be using the Ipswich murders to call for legalised brothels. Not sure now is the time for the debate, personally (the PM’s response) but there we are.
19. I think the Ipswich local paper advocated a similar thing
kjh is right about the ambiguity - as a Labour MP I feel Cameron has improved the Tories by making them more similar to us, and in fairness I’d also have to say he’s improved their electoral chances by doing so. So if I were a non-MP but still a firm Labour voter I’d certainly say yes, Cameron’s doing well, but it wouldn’t make me even a tiny bit likely to vote Tory. Conversely some of the ConHome posters who are still firm Tories might be scathing. This sort of ‘noise’ makes deductions difficult.
That said, comparing figures from the same institute over time gives a reasonably useful guide to trends in general attitudes, and I’d think most people are interpreting the questions simply as do you like/not like what he’s doing. The other useful statistic would be trends among voters who say they are not sure whom to support.
At some stage - and I think it will be quite soon - all these view on Dave Cameron must settle down. Something - whether internal policy driven or events, dear boy, events - will define him more clearly to the voters at large. Until then, we’re just sculpting fog.
20. I referred to this piece in the EDP News which seem to open a debate about it (brothels)
http://new.edp24.co.uk/search/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&itemid=NOED12%20Dec%202006%2008:19:20:713&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=search
19. I would have thought this was an excellent moment to reiterate the votes for prisoners policy.
24 you’re behind the times:
Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell has called for a “violent crimes” register and an end to the automatic release of prisoners halfway through sentences.
In a speech, he also said people in jail for serious crimes should continue to be denied the right to vote - a reversal of the party’s past policy.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/5017650.stm
25 Yellow Beryl is never one to let facts stand in the way of a good rant
TOO TRUE
There is a clear case of distortion of data in UK politics. Yet the shrinking of Cameron’s lead strikes true.
In terms of Cameron’s support - he is more popular then the Conservative Party. This is no great surprise - Cameron is new, and the Tories have been badly motivated for over a decade. This caused poor performance for some time.
This is not to say that Labour had been any better led as a whole, although it is difficult to deny the political talents of Blair.
The future for the Conservative Party, is a change of name and a change of identity. The UK has changed so much over the last 100 years that it current name has the ring of absurdity and is difficult to take seriously. It almost implies it is out of touch by default. It only won elections with this name in the past, because Labour was so badly led – no longer true under Blair, and not because of its name. With Blair’s departure Labour may return to type – and fall far behind in the polls, but it would be poor politics for the Conservatives to rely on this.
The Conservatives have also been the anti-democratic party of British politics – this has always been highly unpopular position – it has never won votes, only lost them – this counts for even more today then it did 100 years ago. It was on this issue that the Liberals won most of their landslide victories against the Conservatives. The change of name would allow the Conservatives to reposition themselves as the pro-democratic party in British politics, allowing it to attack Labour’s flanks on this issue – a strategy which has a long history of working well.
It must be said that the policies that made the Conservatives highly popular in the past – low immigration, low taxes, efficient spending, low crime, economic competence are as popular today as they have always been. There is no change here. The change was in the attitude of the public to the Conservatives – Tories were utterly discredited on them all during the 1990’s. It normally takes 20 trust to be rebuilt. Being a new leader is not enough – a fundamental change of identity for the Party is required.
Labour won a huge landslide on an anti-immigration ticket in 1997, the anti-BNP blunder of Howard in 2004 lost the Conservatives a 3% poll lead overnight – which it never recovered (Howard was already blamed for high immigration starting in the early 1990’s) – thus losing decisively in 2005. And on goes the list of Conservative incompetence.
Now Cameron seems to have lost his marbles by adopting a set of loony left policies that were never popular. Blair meanwhile strategically pushes himself to the right on terrorism, outflanking Cameron and dissolving the Conservative lead into non-existence.
Cameron is badly advised – it is high time he sacked his advisors – replaced them with the well-motivated with genuine grasp of political performance. The example to follow is Reagan, and not Foot!
Hugh, did Cameron fag for you at Eton?
While the deaths concerned here must bring Christmas misery for the families of those concerned, and obvious terror for the girls themselves before they died, when the maniac who is perpetrating these awful acts has finally been caught and locked up, surely there will be a much more massive problem remaining.
How is it that life for able-bodied young women in a substantial and basically ‘comfortable’ town like Ipswich Iand hence much of the UK) is so bleak and uninspiring in this day and age that they go out and get themselves bladdered, addicted to drugs, and end up feeling that the only route to maintaining their ‘habit’ and rather miserable existence is to stand on cold street corners waiting for sad men to pay them a few notes for some sordid act or other, one after another?
Come to think of it, why do some men have the urge to spend their money thus, rather than fill the pocket books of the millionaire footballers of Ipswich Town or Colchester City, or buy some extra lottery ticket or whatever? Mind you, I have never ‘grasped’ what drives people towards using prostitutes, any more than I can work out why people buy lottery tickets or are taken in in the least by Blair or Cameron’s ‘honesty’(sic).
Any takers?
19 I don’t know if it is Ming’s view but it is certainly mine. It also seems to be the direction a number of Suffolk Conservatives are heading before any of the more tedious right wing posters leap in with what it pleases them to call their thoughts.
I see that ‘tabman’ hide behind anonymity, in order to descend into the gutter. Perhaps you’d like me to trace you IP number, track down your full and address and post it here for everyone’s benefit.
Tabman it’s not my fault you can’t put together a coherent, well-thought out or interesting point. Tabman might want to spend his time on those adult websites were his various frustrations might be better rewarded.
29. Conceivably football is not a very good substitute for sex for a lot of people.
Hugh at 27: I was a Labour candidate in 1997 and most certainly did not stand on an anti-immigration ticket! Nor will I do so in the future, regardless of what the Tories do. I think their more reasonable current tone on the subject does them credit.
[27] The data is pretty muzzy, and perhaps we will get more information over the next few months. However in Scotland the Tories are down even further and in previous discussions we have noted the failure of the Tories to make any impact north of the Trent in England. The gentle drift to UKIP may mean something and may mean nothing- but might end up very bad news for Cameron in certain marginal seats. Unless something dramatic changes, I get the impression that early progress for Cameron is running into the sand. Still, we shall see.
Nick let’s be honest - all those British flags all over the campaign trail - Labour’s relentless attacks against Home Secretary Howard, even more of this on the day of the victory is hardly a pro-immigration stance!
Not to say that the manifesto itself explicitly promised to get immigration ‘under control’ This is an anti-immgration ticket in 1997!
I would have to say Nick - you tell an untruth.
N.B. Shadow Home Secretary Blair made his name through his attacks against Howme Secretary Howard on immigration!
31 - hmmm. Sense of humour failure methinks. Perhaps you’re not aware that the real Hugh Laurie, noted Cambridge oarsman, went to Eton (didn’t he also take up acting? ;)) . Perhaps you might also like look up the meaning offagging too.
34 - indeed we shall!
Yeah, Tabman’s anonymous…
You would note that there are over 100 Hugh Laurie’s in the UK - please don’t expect them all to be the same person - but thank you for your attention - this is quite flattering.
How did Nick Budgen do in 1997?
34. The early progress made by Cameron runs into the sand every month.
Particularly in April before the May elections where he helped the Cons win +330 seats in the local elections.
Cameron is still the most exciting thing in politics right now, discuss?
40. A 9.4 Con majority became a 10.5% Lab majority.
39. Do they all misuse apostrophes?
42.
God, politics must be very very boring indeed.
32. “Conceivably football”
I think this is what is played at Portman Road. It’s one step less real than ‘virtual football’.
As for “sex for a lot of people” I’ve always had a suspicion that that must be what they get up to in their thousands at these stadia where they leap up and down and make load groaning noises in crowds for a couple of hours on a Saturday.
41.
“Cameron runs into the sand every month.”
Camelron, surely?
I heard a partially deaf fan was very worried about the safety of the Ipswich substitutes down at Portman Road.
In every generation, there will be people who will, using the old term, ‘fall by the wayside’ its tragic but its a fact. People who will always find life a struggle, people who will seek solace in drugs and alcohol. Some will return to the ’straight and narrow’ some will not make old bones. All of us I’m sure have meet people who have stories to tell, mine. Close relatives who emigrated to Australia, hard working decent people. Built a good life for them selves in OZ, as parents you couldn’t fault them. The daughter became wayward, and difficult then dissapeared, they searched for her for two years, eventually she was discovered working as a prostitute in Perth, drug addicted, they’ve managed to get her back onto some sort of life, but she has drifted back into prostitution on occasion. The son, after the break up of a relationship, hung himself, his father found him hanging from the pergola in the garden. How can you explain it, a devoted couple, never a problem and that happens to them.
Labour managed to get the budget through the Welsh Assembly. 30 votes in favour, 17 against and 12 abstentions.
Plaid and Marek abstained. Trish Law voted with Labour.
Plaid claimed that they got more money for schools, so that’s why they decided to abstain. Marek and Law explained their vote saying that they won concessions for the constituencies.
LD attacked Plaid as “Labour’s little helpers”
50 “LD attacked Plaid as “Labour’s little helpers” ”
Funny, I always thought of LD as Labours little helpers.
The government has announced that it is going to make more nice noises about the CSA, and rename it. . .and. . . . er. . .
Oh yes, they are going “to encourage greater take-up of joint-parenting”. Which of course is what MPs wanted to do with The Childrens Act 1980, but judges, under leadership of Butler Sloss, just ripped it up and carriesd on virtually as they did under the old legislation, and to be fair, the MPs just ignored this defiance by subterfuge, which showedhowmuch they really cared about millions of children’s lives.
And the government say they are NOT going to write off the multi-billion pounds owed by recalcitrant parents - but hands up who believes they will actually get hold of much of this money?
Hey-ho, let’s get on to. . . . finance of political parties, MPs’ salaries. . . REALLY important things of import to all our constituents.
51.
And that makes the Conservatives Labour’s Big Helpers?
38 - Yeah, and I’ll send the boys raaahhhnd you slaaagggg!!!
41 - who’s to say it shouldn’t have been 500+ wins? Isn’t that what IDS of March managed?
Being the “real” Hugh Laurie seems to have its compensations …
Just looking through the details of the populus poll, frankly, any party can look at the details therein positively.
Two main things stood out, firstly the press gave Greens and UKIP prominence as part of the others vote, it appears that the BNP got the same percentage as UKIP but were not mentioned. Memo to The Times: ignoring them won’t work.
Secondly I was looking for what potential churn exists with Brown as leader and the figures show Cameron gaining a net 10% of the lib dem vote and a net 2% of the labour vote. There’s only a vote in it between labour and lib dems (would have hoped to see a net flow to lib dems but there you go). Also notable is that all parties lose 2 or 3% to others, Cameron loses no advantage to UKIP therefore (didn’t the Riddell analysis try to claim that or was that before?)
Also, beware a woman aged between 35 and 44 in either Wales or the South West and from social class AB, she plans to vote for the Natural Law party, amazingly they found another such person in October and March as well…..
(just realised I posted this on the last thread by mistake!)
US Presidential election punters alert - article on Barack Obama
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6173373.stm
The charts would be easier to read if you chose the ‘edge’ display instead of ‘oblique’. I would prefer to see a table showing the ‘difference’ ['well - bad' or 'satisfied - dissatisfied']. I would then plot one pollster against the other to see if they were consistent with each other. If they are, then the changes they record may actually mean something and be worth discussing; if not, not.
O/T (never!) I was just thinking how similar Mike’s pic of trade union badges looked to the Henley Steward’s Enclosure tags members are issued with.
59 - oops
use this link.
[60] Nope, the TUC badges have the President’s name on them …
Well for those who care Labour have selected their sacrifical lamb for the suicide attack on Jenny Randerson next May, and the two Socialist parties Labour and Plaid look like they’ve stitched up the Lib Dems by stitching up their own deal in advance of next May. Pretty cute by Rhodri, and very good news for all those Labour Councillors……………
54. It was 330 more than the Lib Dems managed…oh sorry zero gains was big progress wasn’t it?
57.
More reasons to make my bet at 50-1 to win not as stupid as it felt at the time.
Thanks for the article Mike. i have to take yougov more seriously because it says what I want it to say!
That said Gordon appears to be getting caught up in the cash for honours scandel. See my blog for more details and links
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Nick Palmer MP earlier: ‘I’d certainly say yes, Cameron’s doing well, but it wouldn’t make me even a tiny bit likely to vote Tory.’
I hadn’t realised that the electoral boundaries hindered the Tories so much that Cameron needs to rely on getting the votes of Labour MPs! Go on Nick, so what would he have to do for your support?
57. If you get a chance, or anyone interested in US presidential election politics, check out the C-span website. I saw Obama give a comprehensive 50 min speech detailing his analysis of the war in Iraq. Bush’s inability to articulate himself is in stark contrast to Obama. The US is an interesting place, whereby they can similarly proclaim Bush as a great leader, but also preach the virtues of his polar opposite Obama.
Re 65, To be fair tpfkar, he would only need to get 130 ish votes then to form a government in the morning. Tempting thought
HOT - Horribly Off-Thread - but if Peter the Punter or Cheltboy are still around, do they have any hot tips for Ascot this Friday? My old chums from a big bad corporate are playing ‘host’, and in between the nosh and bubbly, I shall be having a flutter or five
.
I should add that, rashly, I have promised any winnings to an admirable charity with which I’m associated.
Helth minister Lord Warner has resigned (to spend more time with his family).
A replacement will be announced in the new year
69 - I bet they’ll be queueing up to replace him…
63 Join the party, Cheltboy, which Mike, StJohn and me plan to have on US Election day!
I’ve just checked - Lord Warner was the guy in charge of the IT disaster, they definitely won’t be queueing up to replace him!
68 John O
It’s a bit early to be leafing through the form book for Ascot on Friday but if they all stand their ground and you don’t mind me shooting from the hip, I’ll give you:
2.00 Roll Along - next best, Pepperoni Pete
2.35 Fair Along/Natal
3.10
…continued from 73
3.10 My World (if wet) or Aleron (if dry)
3.40 Theatre, next best Portland Bill
And don’t blame me if you do your brains!
Peter, Thanks - you’re a star :). You are herewith absolved from all ‘blame’ but great will be the rejoicing from the winners’ enclosure!
71 PtP. I’ll have my own bloody party then !!
75 Mixed with shock, no doubt, but good luck anyway.
Ascot’s a great course now that it’s been redeveloped, provided you are not obliged to watch the racing from the subterranean terrace in front of the stands. You should be fine and have plenty of room to move about. Envious.
Apologies if this has already been noted but… if:
“…as regular visitors might have noticed, I am now seeking to use charts a lot more so we can get a better medium-term view of how things are evolving…”
Then I might humbly suggest that you need to use a better plotting program than Excel!
I’ve mostly used an IDL variant, but I think that’s only really used in a scientific environment and might be expensive for you to get hold of. Perhaps MatLab would be cheaper…?
Anyway, if you were to get hold of something better it would make it easier to overplot standard deviations, regression lines, t-test results… Some really rigorous analysis!
Your implied probability charts were normally very clear - why the sudden fad for using confusing bars?
Re the US Democratic namination, surely Hillary’s price is too low at evens (Ladbrokes) and even 5/4 (Betfair)?
I’ve always regarded her as a high risk candidate. Obama would be risky too but he doeas appear to have momentum. There are other more traditional candidates too who could thwart her. Is she a lay? (And no bad taste jokes please…they’re far too obvious.)
65: Er…he could join the Labour Party…go on, he might as well…
Re 78, Timothy, Why does our genial host like bar charts? Why he is a Liberal Democrat
73. Peter sorry missed you at Cheltenham. family commitments curtailed my time at prestbury park. Ignore pepporini pete at your peril. this horse is the business.
Glad you are on barack. I am beginning to feel good vibes about this bet.
RE 80, Nick palmer, Fair enough, Tony Blair did
82 Cheltboy, my Obama voucher is so hot I keep it in the fridge!
82…Spare a thought for Innocent Abroad though. He came back from the bookies with a bet on Osama. Nice odds though.
So the alleged terror threat hoax to blow up passenger jets across the Atlantic has not amounted to anything other than the government or its machinery playing the terror card, presumably in part to help Bush in the midterms.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6175427.stm
The so-called terrorists, infiltrated and perhaps encouraged by MI5, had no bombs, no plane tickets and mostly no passports. The chemical explosive plot theory was so flawed that restrictions imposed on passengers have been mostly lifted.
This only confirms the view that 7/7 was an inside job. No wonder why Blair won’t hold a public inquiry. As for the claim that there are 200 plots in the UK, then I say to the neo-con fascists like John Reid, either arrest them or shut up about it.
Is Nick’s comment at 80 a mild criticism of the Labour Party.
If Cameron joined the Labour party would Nick accept my offer, subject to reconsidering his position on ID cards, to join the Lib Dems - preferably at a time to agreed by milord prior to the next election - he could be as famous as Brian Sedgemoor.
86 I see the “francis” fan club has surfaced for another drubbing !
Not being morbid, but US Senator Tim Johnson has had a stroke. If he is unable to continue his term in the senate, IF, then the Republican Governor of SD would put a Republican in his place.
I hope he makes a full recovery, but it is quite a significant political development, as the Senate could flip.
88 PMSL!
Made my night, Jack!
Apparently Luntz is a fan of Obama too! Expect that price to shorten as the hipe builds!
91: Don’t believe the hype.
Timothy: if you like MatLab, you’ll love Resolver. Drop me an email (through Mike) and I’ll tell you about.
nb, Resolver Systems is a little software company the host (and the host’s son!) have invested in.
PTP. Just catching up with the threads.
Good of you to include me as one of the “Three musketeers” at the planned Osama party along with Mike S and yourself, plus invitee Cheltboy. However very remiss of you to then exclude Jack W, the Mac D’artagnan of the party! Particularly as you lot are all on at 50/1 and as usual I am playing catch up!
Havind seen the recognition that Osama is now receiving from BBC news tonight I have finally got involved at 8/1 with Paddy Power. I will be delighted to attend the celebratory party as a late convert to the cause. I agree with Benedict White that the price is only likely to shorten.
Ouch! I’ve fallen into the Osama trap! Sorry!
re 69. Good riddance - the man was a disaster and more sanctimonious than Patsy.
89. Online sources are now reporting that it wasn’t a stroke after all. He doesn’t seem to be in bad condition, just had a moment of disorientation.
99 StJohn
Very welcome at the party! Of course, how could I forget Jack?!! He was one of the first Obama backers. Ah well, I’m sure he’ll forgive me if I buy him a few nice malts.
Nick Palmer - heard you on Radio 5 this morning about something or other - just caught the last few sentences of what you were saying - was it about benefits and the help people can get to claim them? You were absolujtely right in saying that a lot of help IS out there (especially for the elderly) to fill out forms etc - but they don’t know where to go for help. There are many pensioners who complain about their council tax - but yet don’t claim the rebates they are due!
WRT Wales - this is going to be VERY damaging for Plaid. Nick Bourne (Tory leader) and Mike German (LD Leader) were furious with Plaid and they suggest that Rhodri bought them off easily (and behind their backs!) Labour has got the budget through but it could have been so much worse. Interesting that Trish Law voted with the government - at least she’s not just an ‘oppositionalist’ who just votes against everything.
Oh and another thing - are there any local bye-elections today?
101. yes…a couple of them. One in Lancaster (Labour seat…
BNP standing and apparently working it) and one in Epping Forest (Con seat, LD are the main challenger. BNP standing here too, but they didn’t stand last May)