Is there any value left in the Obama prices?
December 14th, 2006
How serious a contender is the young African-American?
After a quiet five weeks following the mid-term elections US politics has suddenly exploded again with the visit this week by the black contender, Barack Obama, to New Hampshire - the state where traditionally the first primary election of US presidential campaigns takes place.
Suddenly everybody is talking up the prospects of the 45 year old Democrat Senator from Illinois and the UK media has now begun to pay attention. Last night most BBC bulletins were carrying a long piece by Matt Frei comparing Obama with JFK.
Frei concluded:”..So, can he win? Can he raise the cash? Can he survive the rough and tumble of the campaign and the tough questions? Will the colour of his skin not count against him? Can he be convincing about security in the middle of an ongoing war? Can he survive the fickle adulation of the media? If the answer to all the above is yes, Barack Hussein Obama will be the 44th president of the United States… as strange as that may sound.”
Back in May 2005, just three weeks after the UK General Election, I tipped him here when he was priced at 50/1 to go all the way. The price stayed at relatively high levels until two months ago Time Magazine put him on its front cover. In October 2006 you could still get 33/1 although that did not last long.
The best you can now get on Obama winning the 2008 race is 8/1. A better option might be to put money on him getting the Democrat nomination where 4.6/1 is still available on Betfair. That seems to offer great value.
What is becoming clear is that Obama’s ethnic origin is not the issue that it might have been - certainly for Democrats. He has a capability to reach out to people in a way that few politicians possess.
The scenes in last night BBC report were quite extraordinary and he also got the thumbs up from the controversial Republican pollster Frank Luntz.
He is already attracting the financial support and will give Hillary Clinton a good run. The fact that this is now being seen as a two horse race is going to make it very difficult for other Democrat challengers to get into contention.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
O/T but cheer up you lot - my mob are on 3/73 as I type. Bet you wish you weren’t asleep when Our Ricky fell…
Another wicket - my £50 at 9.2 for England to win this test is looking a better bet than I expected.
I am puzzled. Obama had a white mother and a black father yet everyone says he is black, surely you could just as simply say he was white.
Is there any value left in the Obama price? Yes, but not much.
Presidential elections seem to narrow the field down earlier and earlier each time. It’s relatively common for there to be only one candidate with a serious chance of winning by the time of the New Hampshire primary (both Bushes in 1988 and 2000, Dole in 1996 for the GOP; Gore in 2000 for the Democrats). It’s certainly unlikely that there’ll be more than two in it after the earliest primaries / caucuses in 2008. Assuming Clinton will be one then that doesn’t leave much room for another and unless someone makes a move soon, Obama will have that reserved for him.
After that point, things get harder. Clinton is the one with the money and the establishment base - perhaps not as important in the Democrats as the Republicans (who was the last ‘outsider’ GOP candidate? Goldwater?) - but still a formidable challenge for Obama or anyone else. That said, it only takes one slip-up in the wrong place and any candidacy could be over.
I can’t really see a reason why his price should shorten that much in the next 12 months. It may come in a little as the market drops the chaff, but most of the value looks to have gone already (well done on that, Mike).
4. Yes, I have to reluctantly agree again with you David that the value has probably gone out of the Obama price now. The reluctance is because it looks like the party planned by those PBers who got on at fancy prices is going to be confined to a small elite - Mike, Jack W, Cheltboy, StJohn and me.
The price may shorten a bit. The man has momentum. But I suspect you are right about the Clinton machine which has been working away for a long while now. In the end, it will probably grind out a result.
OT. Does anyone know how someone as barking mad as Mohammed Al Feyed gets so much media time? And doesn’t it just show that vast amounts of money can buy you anything and isn’t it corrosive to any society with pretentions to be meritocratic?
There might be b/c you can go all Tradesports and buy/sell the contract. US political betting is much more sophisticated. That said, Obama will never be President and I’m saying never. No experience whatsoever. Barack Hussein Obama.
So why is his price tight?
Because Hillary is a sure fire vote loser at the main election.
Frankly as a Republican I rejoice, if the choice is Clinton/Obama they have this thing in the bag. But the Democratic benches are probably not that weak. I daresay a new challenger will emerge.
O/T but I have done something to my browser that makes all text on UK websites come up really large, can anybody tell me how to fix it as it is very annoyig (I use aol).
And by the way, don’t get too excited on your longshot bet. New ABC/WaPo poll has Obama on a mere 17% with HC doubling him:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/13/AR2006121301593.html
6. OT Roger, you could say the same for Tony Blair, George Bush, Ahmedinojad. perhaps the question is how anyone who is NOT checkup-from-the-neckup gets onto the airwaves?
On the main topic, what price a constitutional amendment to allow non-US-born people to stand for President? Then that populist Republicrat Schwarzenegger would walk it.
6. OT Roger, you could say the same for Tony Blair, George Bush, Ahmedinojad. perhaps the question is how anyone who is NOT checkup-from-the-neckup gets onto the airwaves?
On the main topic, what price a constitutional amendment to allow non-US-born people to stand for President? Then that populist Republicrat Schwarzenegger would walk it.
Yes he would, which is a main reason why it will never happen. All his Republican rivals and all the Democrats will unite to stop it.
New visitors to PB should note that Commentator speaks with the authority of one who never has a bet.
I did once bet on the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice and I lost.
13% in the ABC poll Peter, you think that looks tasty? He’s all hype.
6. How do they let him get away with using the name ‘Al Fayed’ as well, given that he has no more right to use it than I have to call myself Sir XXXX XXXXXX?
I remember reading on a flight to Chicago an inflight magazine which said that in the UK 75% of people wouldn’t mind if a member of their family married someone from a different ethinc group whereas only 25% of Americans would feel the same.
When I met my collegue -a Jewish New Yorker- I asked him about these figures and he said he was surprised it was as high as 25%! Over the next few days I talked to the people I was working with and the divisions-even in a cosmopolitan place like Chicago-were really surprising.
This was five years ago and unless things have changed dramatically since then I would say Obama hasn’t any chance at all. I don’t think people over here really understand the entrenched racial divisions that exist over there
13 Commentator - I refer to your extraordinarily inaccurate predictions in respect of the US mid-term elections and rest my case.
15. I think ‘mixed-marriages’ are much less common in the US then here roger. Even in the media (TV shows, films etc) a black woman is always married to a black man etc etc. You get more of a mix here - possibly due to the fact that the ethnic communities are smaller?
Commentator. You point out that HC doubles Obama in the polls. This is reflected in their current prices. HC 2/1 and Obama now at 12/1 with William Hill.
I have finally woken up and smelt the coffee. This chap has star quality and Mike S had the perspicacity to recognise the fact. I have gone in again at 12/1.
Obama will not be president. You have to think with your head not your heart. When you think about Obama as preident is it because you WANT a black president or because you really think he has a chance?
[15] They’ve got the land to allow market forces to segregate ethnic groups residentially - we haven’t.
Re 13 Commentator, If you backed Obama at 50 to 1 you can now get out at a very healthy profit regardless of whether he wins or not.
19. Interesting, because my heart wants Hilary and my head says Obama!!! Obama certainly has that *something* that people like. OTOH, his race may count against him.
Hilary is a formidable operator with an insider track to the Democratic party. But will people vote for a woman - and if so, will they vote for *her*?
Re 19, Peter2, No I wan’t john McCain as president, but that does not mean you can’t hedge bets over time to lock in profit and walk away with the cash.
If MAF wont believe anything he doesn’t want to hear - why should anyone believe him - eg his evidence in court for example. Deport him and give us all some peace.
Benedict. Which is exactly what I said in my first post re: Tradesports.
He has less than zero chance.
Doesn’t anybody know how to fix my browser making all this text giant sized?
Re 26 Commentator try ctrl -
thanks Benedict. I system restored it in the end.
19 Peter 2 “You have to think with your head not your heart.”
This is the line that I and others, notably Mike S, have been preaching here for a very long time. But there is more to it than that. If you want long term betting profits you have to search for value and back it when you find it. When he was 50-1, Obama was terrific value and I snapped it up. I kept snapping it up until he got down to 8s. Since then, I have laid off enough to cover my original bets, still leaving a sizeable upside if he goes all the way.
Will he? I doubt it. As I said earlier, I expect the Clinton machine to grind it out (post 5). That doesn’t matter. I have a great trading position whatever happens next.
Btw, one way of finding value in political betting is to read Commentator’s posts and bet the opposite way. I enjoy reading his contributions and respect his political opinions, but as a tipster he can only improve on past performance.
LOL!
I double dare you to come here and restate your position the day the Democratic nomination is announced, Peter.
RE 30, Commentator, Peter the Punters position is that Obama won’t get the nomination, but Peter will have walked away with a large wad in the mean time. Seems like a fair position to me.
On the betting markits, you don’t back winners, you back value.
I remember reading Commentator say he was 100% certain that the Conservatives would win the next election. Obviously I was so convinced by his tip that I tried to remortgage my house!
My tip for betting is don’t do it.
How many gamblers, long-term, wind up wealthier because they gambled? Isn’t it pretty much zero?
PS: we will indeed win the next election. Speaking of which, slow day on PB today even though it’s Thursday. Nobody really cares about American politics without the immediacy of an election to intrigue us. Will there be any new polls this week, or must we wait until next week?
29 PtP. Excellent post. IMO all points north of 5/1 represents value in the Obama market.
I’ve traded here and in the States and hedged well and now stand to make a six figure profit if Obama makes it. Like PtP I fear the Clinton machine may squeeze the life out of Obama in the long term. However stranger things than an outsider winning the Presidency have happened - Kennedy, Carter, Reagan, Clinton and Bush Jnr all started from a distance behind to win.
I was unsure whether the race issue would play or not. For me the Tennessee Senate race was instructive. We were told that incumbant Republican Corker would wipe the floor with black Democrat Ford by a sizeable double digit score. However in a solidly red state Ford lost by only 3 points. IMO race may not be the issue some claim.
So, might Obama win ? The odds remain against. However, so far every time Obama pops up on the radar he convinces that he has that X quality candidates require to run the race successfully. Interesting times in American politics.
My chits are indeed very hot …. but then, it’s just the way I walk.
How many posters put a bet on the Democrats to take both Houses?
33. Good post Commentator! When is the next poll out? Any local elections tonight worthy of interest?
It’s been noticed that the right-wing media has started using his middle name, calling him Barack Hussein Obama - an obvious attempt to attach even more demons to him. The two bogeymen of America.
I see control of the Senate is back in the balance…
34-My impression was that Corker was losing as poll interviewees were unwilling to say they wouldn’t vote for Ford for fear of appearing racist.
37-black and Muslim? Less than zero chance then!
39. What if he was gay too - would he have minus infinity chance ?
34. Jack W hoping for a six figure profit. Wow! I assume that doesn’t include figures after the decimal point? Good Luck.
Commentator. I have been betting for fun for over 30 years. In the “early learning years” I did make a loss but I can honestly say that over the last 10-15 years I have broken even and had a great deal of fun in the process. I bet in the hope not expectation of winning. I bet relatively infrequently on a few markets where I have an interest and some small knowledge.
39 Peter2. No. Corker was ahead in almost every poll and had a 12 point lead in one poll days out. That Ford came as close in a state that Bush won 57/42.5 is instructive.
41 stjohn. Only $ I’m afraid.
[33] “My tip for betting is don’t do it.
How many gamblers, long-term, wind up wealthier because they gambled? Isn’t it pretty much zero?”
So what first attracted you to a site called “politicalBETTING.com ?
30 Thanks, Commentator, for taking my teasing with your customary good humour.
I am of course only too willing to stand and be counted when my tips go down but note that here I am not saying Obama will win. I have stated repeatedly that I think Hillary will edge him out but he was a great punt, and probably still is. If you haven’t taken the point about value which I and several others have tried to get across, there’s nothing more I can add.
As for not betting, you are very wise. Only 3% of all punters make a profit. Most are social punters - a couple of quid once a year on the Grand National etc - for whom it is harmless fun. Anybody playing seriously should keep detailed records, otherwise there’s a serious risk they will kid themselves they are winning when they are not.
34 Jack W
SIX figures!! Are you trying to buy up the rest of Belgravia?
The bandwagon effect seems to be more important in US Politics. Carter was the most extreme example I can remember but you are right with the others too. This is why I expect Obama’s price to contract further yet.
I noticed the Tennessee result. There have been other indications too that whatever stops Obama, it won’t be race. If you want to hear him speak, go to C-Span which has an audio of his latest rally performance. He might not be Abe Lincoln but he’s pretty good. (In fact, compared to the present incumbent, he probably is Abe Lincoln.)
I suggest you keep your chits in the fridge for the time being…you will feel more comfortable.
35 - Coldstone
FWIW, I did, but to small amounts and only because both prices represented value.
39 - Peter 2
Well then why don’t you stop telling us all about it and log in to Betfair where you can lay the ‘black muslim’ at 6.2? You will find no shortage of takers.
OK, it’s time for a reality check…….
ANYONE WHO SERIOUSLY THINKS BARACK OBAMA CAN BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT SHOULD BE PUT IN A STRAIGHT JACKET AND BE TAKEN TO THE NEAREST INSTITUTION WITHOUT DELAY!
Even those close to Obama know he can’t win. He’ll end up being the VP on a ‘dream ticket’ with Hilary.
He is being built up in the US by liberals in the media (who despise Hilary for voting for the Iraq war) and Neo-Cons who fear the Clinton’s and their fund-raising prowess.
The more the US public learn about him, the less they like him. Here are some recent polls:
Who would you vote for next President:
USA Today/Gallop(Nov 9) - Hilary 31% Obama 19%
CNN Poll (Dec 5) - Hilary 31% Obama 15%
Fox News Poll (Dec
- Hilary 33% Obama 12%
DO NOT WASTE YOUR MONEY!!
BB
If any punter is betting to make a fortune, you’d better have very deep pockets. If on the other hand, you like challenging the odds, testing your knowledge, with some risk attached, fine! whats the problem?
Those of you who didn’t see the Beeb piece on Obama last night may wish to scan the on-line version here :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/6173373.stm
Peter, my first post said:
“There might be b/c you can go all Tradesports and buy/sell the contract. US political betting is much more sophisticated.”
I do know about trading the contract. But what I’m reacting to here is the other idea that Obama has any kind of a serious chance of actually winning which some posters seem to think he has.
44: POLITICALbetting.com.
90% plus of the posts on PB concern the political part, only 5% or less concern the betting part. I can’t recall where I found the site, probably a reference through ConHome at one point. But it was, and is, the unpartisan nature of the conversations here - Nick Palmer, the various LibDems, David Herdson, Benedict White, Jack W, PtP, and of course the one-man encylopedia of everything Andrea, that attracts me.
I find the conservative posters here far more reflective of Tories I come across as an activist than the mainly UKIP trolls that presently dominate ConHome. At least half of the most frequent posters on that site have declared they have left the party/will never vote Tory again. It is hard to get a good barometer of Conservative opinion if you read the comments there. The main posts are usually good although I may have some differences with the editors.
46-Obama is being built up as the latest stop Clinton candidate. Like all the stop Gordon candidates so far he won’t make the cut. I still think if there is someone to stop Clinton it’d be a popular governor of a mid sized “swing” state. Now, just to find him (I doubt it’d be a her…).
Bill Richardson was mentioned to me on a trip to the States recently.
46/47 Bounder/Coldstone. The art here is to recognise excellent value and trade before prices head too far south. My Obama position has left me effectively staking nothing and the prospect of keeping Mrs Jack W in shoes for at least a week or three.
I took the same position on Brown and notwithstanding our Gordon being knocked down by a Cherie driven Clapham omnibus look forward to the odd case or ten of single malt and some coming my way.
It’s the way I pick em !!
Commentator - what do you mean that you have differences with the editors.
Mike and his guests dont edit their pieces stimulate discussion, which we sometimes ignor.
Proud to be various….
[boast]I’ve been up on every betting account I’ve ever had[/boast]
I presume quite a few other people here can say the same. Luckily we are aided by those who bet with their hearts.
51-I have heard of him too. A better bet than Obama in my eyes.
[Yes, he's supposed to be Hispanic, but with a name like that no one would notice. No one is going to call him Bill Hussein Richardson or any such nonsense.]
I think it was Gore Vidal who wrote that Warren Harding was America’s first black president - I think in his Golden Age series of US political history. Apparently he was of mixed race. Not sure how true that is.
O/T: Does anyone know when Alastair Campbell’s memoirs are being published?
I thought the comment by our friend Luntz was interesting that Obama’s presence was such that he just “sucks the oxygen out of a room”. I’m anything but a conspiracy theorist but I just don’t trust Luntz’s motives in anything he does. If he’s pushing Obama it can only mean he fears Hilary. Nonetheless a very flattering portrait by the excellent Matt Frei.
53, the editors of Conservative Home, not PB.com.
Hispanic would be an asset. Likeable, southern from the executive branch, foreign policy experience. Possible dark horse.
51. I tipped Bill Richardson in one of the earlier threads on the 2008 race this year, but am not too sure now. He has an excellent CV for the job and could be a contender, but is now in danger of being run out of the race before it’s begun (as is the rest of the field). I wouldn’t right him off yet - though as I’ve just said, I have a small vested interest in it - but if he’s going to make a move it has to be done soon.
Re Obama’s future prospects. He’s still young, especially by American standards. I can’t really see what he’d gain by being Clinton’s running mate - or for that matter, that it would add much to the Democratic ticket in the minds of swing voters. This looks to me to be more about putting down a marker for 2012 (if Clinton loses) or 2016 (if she wins), with the added benefit of keeping him in the race should something upset the HC campaign.
Jack W - good luck with your bet - sounds like a corker & you’re a braver man than me. Hope you don’t end up losing your house over it!
60 David H. IMO Obama would be well advised to take the plunge this time. He’s unlikely even again to get the positive glow from the media at this level. Further he wouldn’t face an incumbant President either.
On the GOP side Giuliani and McCain appear the main contenders, although recent polling shows McCain losing support among the independents, almost certainly because of his vociferous defence of the Iraq war.
61 Oxonian. Thanks, but there’s no risk as the position has been fully hedged.
As a matter of firm principle I never wager more that I can very comfortably afford to lose. In exchange betting I nearly always find I wager with other peoples cash !
62. Jack, I agree he should run, it’s just he’s in a position to play at more than just 2008.
But, it’s better to go early than wait and find there was no second chance (unless you’re William Hague). Having thought about it a bit more, I take back the comment about him not gaining much from being Hillary’s running mate - generally running mates who have a good campaign are recognised even if the ticket fails.
Jack W @ 62 — Obama’s best strategy may depend on whether he can realistically win the nomination, and whether he believes Hillary can win the presidency. His best shot might be to form an alliance with the Clinton camp to secure VP or a top cabinet post.
The Democrats win, he wins, and he gets a shot on his own in a few years.
On the ‘World at One’ they have just put it to Cameron that in the last few months his lead has averaged 3% whereas Blair’s lead after the same length of time in 94-95 averaged 25%. They then produced a prominent Tory who accused him of being nothing more than an unprincipaled PR man.
I must say that Cameron is more attractive as a politician when you you don’t hear him too often. He’s developed a sickly sweet manner that I suspect will not go down too well the more people get to hear it.
BLAIR INTERVIEWED BY POLICE
Prime Minister Tony Blair has been interviewed by police investigating allegations of cash for honours. He was not interviewed under caution.
64/65 David/John. I take the view that Hilary will not win and thus Obama may be tainted by her failure if he’s her VP.
Strangely it may be more difficult for Obama to win the nomination than the Presidency. Presently Hilary has much of the party machine tied up and yet I think she may be flattering to deceive until a viable alternative steps forward. Is that Obama ?? …. I think so, but it may still not be enough.
67/68 tpfkar/steve B. Guido will be gutted !!
68,
Same as Howard then.
Guido knows nothing!
Guido has been predicting this every day for the last three months hoping to be right one day.
Long interview, but not under caution. I don’t see much there. Guido will look a bit silly.
Interesting point Dez. Anyway I very much doubt the rather poderous PC Yetes has the ability to outfox the man who single handedly convinced a country that Saddam had WMD’s
OT — 2,500 Post Offices face closure, according to Alistair Darling, and once more the attention is on rural Post Offices.
There was a piece in the Standard recently by Diane Abbott reminding us that Post Offices are important to working class urban communities too. This looks like being one more factor that makes the lives of natural, core Labour voters just a bit harder.
Rather than demand more polls in the run-up to Christmas, we might do better to keep an eye on retail sales figures, and also the lottery sales.
re 67. And of course what are the front pages going to be full of tomorrow, and pages 2-15, 18, 20, 22…..
Someone’s done a deal to bury this news - old habits die hard I suppose.
“67/68 tpfkar/steve B. Guido will be gutted !!”
Indeed! Guido-the Mohammed Al feyed of the Tory Party!
Jack W @ 69 — Hillary looks credible to me. Her critics say she polarises opinion but so far as I can infer from the polling evidence, the people she puts off will vote Republican anyway.
I haven’t seen a poll on Hillary’s negatives recently but they used to be gigantic. I think the Republicans are praying for her as the nominee. She wraps up every swing voter across the midwest and south.
69. “I take the view that Hilary will not win and thus Obama may be tainted by her failure if he’s her VP”. That was my initial thinking, why is why I thought Obama might turn down the chance to be running mate, but on second thoughts, there have been VP candidates who have outshone their partner and done themselves the power of good - Edwards being the last example, except that he then had nothing to keep himself in the limelight for the next 2-3 years. FDR rose to prominence that way as well, though that’s going back a bit.
I agree with your second paragraph though.
BLAIR STORY
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6179911.stm
As a Tory I would love to see Blair banged up for selling peerages but you have to face the facts, and I try to be objective. Not interviewed under caution means no charges. This is a good result for Labour.
I think Americans like dynasties. Hilary seems the right person at the right time. Unless of course another Bush turns up?
82. Sky saying it was not even Yates that did the i/view - wtf ?
73 et al
If Guido was as good as his word, he will have lost a lot of money on the Blair Switch market. He said he intended to lay Q2 2007 big time.
I wonder if he did?
82. Commentator - you are an awful Tory, but at leat you are fair!
A few days of headlines is bad for Labour, but as people are saying - no caution, no charges.
66.”I must say that Cameron is more attractive as a politician when you you don’t hear him too often. He’s developed a sickly sweet manner that I suspect will not go down too well the more people get to hear it.” Roger, I take it that he came across quite well in the interview then?
I am enjoying the Sky coverage on the Blair police interview and the conclusions they have drawn from it. Trevor Kavanagh did point out that the interview was carried out in No10 street while the press lobby were there being told that there had been no interview.
I also tipped Bill Richardson ages ago, and took several bets as high as 40/1. Admittedly those were value rather than serious prediction (I also took Santorum!), and he probably doesn’t have the national profile unless the major players slip up.
Still, an Arizona Democrat has a potentially interesting cross-sectional appeal, and would bring several SW states into play (and a similar logic was enough for Gore to get the nomination) as well as possibly going down well in the likes of PA and OH. On top of that, the contrast with the intense repellent value that a NYer like Clinton has may impress some.
Looks like Brown will also be tained by this honours scandal…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6178627.stm
That could mean sleaze continues on into the new regime, as under Major
Arizona? Huh? I have about three braincells today.
89 - Dream on. That is the lamest story, that even most of the papers didn’t bother to follow up today.
I have just heard Stephen Pound try and say that Blair and Downing street had no idea when the police would visit for an interview!
Iain Dale has got spot on, he can now add the Blair interviewed by police to his list.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2006/12/burying-bad-news-they-are-at-it-again.html
I heard some insider gossip about the Cash for Ermine thingy. Apparently the police are not going to charge any politicians; however the police say they will then present their evidence to the Commons committee dealing with the affair, and the evidence should be enough for some serious punishment of culprits, under Commons rules.
Make of that what you will. Not sure I understand it, but it’s what I was told.
Slightly O/T
South Dakota Democrat Senator Tim Johnson in critical condition after surgery for an illness with stroke like symptoms.
Obama will not be the Democrats candidate for President in 2008.Fr those who got him at fancy odds there may well be possibilities to hedge but if you havent yet, really depends on how much more you believe his odds will contract. I personally dont see a huge amount of value the only proviso is that Hilary drops out (still a possibility) and the market is reconstructed.
Looks like sour grapes from the likes of Iain Dale.
93 It’s an interesting idea, SeanT. The police will have to get evidence “beyond reasonable doubt” if the CPS is going to get a criminal conviction, which might be difficult - good, but not enough for a jury to convict (and a whole bucketload of political difficulties for the Met as well.) But, if they give everything gift-wrapped to the House of Commons, life is easier for them. The HoC is one of the few “self regulating” organisations left in the UK these days, and they can mete out discipline on a “balance of probabilities” basis. If they fail to do so, then the public will take it ou on them instead.
Re. 88, Richardson is the Governor of New Mexico.
92 - presumably he’ll be adding in Michael Howard too?
OT, but the growing rumours about a Muslim terror attack this Xmas are becoming quite unsettling. Thefirstpost has a track record of being up to speed on these things (OK I write for them sometimes, but still) - one of their latest pieces on the Suffolk Strangler ends with this rather chilling paragraph:
“Dozens of surveillance teams from police forces throughout the UK have been seconded to the capital where a militant Islamic ’spectacular’ is expected before Christmas”
Expected? Crikey. Let’s hope they are wrong.
Cant believe the Police would have decided it was best to conduct their interview on the day the Stevens report came out.
However it a busy news day for Police stories, including the terrible murders in Ipswich.
Even the West Wing couldn`t be written up as good, to deflect.
O/T: Does anyone think that Israel’s “admission” (accidental or otherwise) of having nukes will change the Middle East picture, or Blair’s attitude towards Israeli policy?
It’s interesting that today the Telegraph reports at length (with pictures) the unprovoked destruction of Gaza Airport a few weeks ago by Israeli forces:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/14/wmid14.xml
Normally the Telegraph wouldnt have considered that newsworthy, as there isnt a way to blame Palestinians…
re 99. Don’t worry it’s just Blair and Reid who “wants to make your flesh creep” all over again. Watch out for new anti-free speech laws in January thought and Reid trumpeting how this and that was thwarted but it would all be much easier if we wouldn’t mind giving up a few more rights.
98. I don’t remember a blizzard of big stories on the day Michael Howard was interviewed.
98 - if you think No10 is controlling when blair was interviewed, the date of the Diana report and Suffolk murders, you really need to take off your tin foil hat.
104. You don’t need to be a paranoid fruitloop to think that when Number 10 were asked to set a date, by the police, for the interview (after all the PM is a busy man), the spindoctors looked to see what was a busy news day in prospect, a good day to for Blair’s bad news to be drowned out by other stuff. And naturally they went for the day Diana’s report came out. Suffolk was no doubt a “bonus” (sorry if that sounds gruesome).
Indeed I would be astonished if something like this didn’t happen, and I am sure the Tories would have done the same. C’est la vie.
I seem to remember reading somewhere, that British law was built on the concept, that you were,’presumed innocent until proven guilty’ Perhaps even TB should be given, at least the benefit of the doubt.
” I don’t remember a blizzard of big stories on the day Michael Howard was interviewed. ”
er, maybe that’s because he’s not PM…
TB not cautioned: I’m not surprised. I wonder how long it’ll take before Blair-haters start slagging off Yates, as they did with the previously much-admired Hutton when he came to unwelcome conslusions.
Punters who bet on Q1 2007 (or even Q4 2006 - amazing to think it used to be about 3-1 at one time) should lay it off at whatever price they can get.
O/T: having criticised the police for what appeared to be periodic leaked progress reports on the cash for peerages allegation, I see they’re now doing the same on the serial murders. Deductions about the murderer, compliments to him for his forensic expertise (putting bodies in water to remove DNA traces etc.), briefings about how to avoid leaving evidence - what the hell are they playing at? Even if some of it is misleading to trap this particular murderer, no policeman should be briefing the press on how to destroy evidence.
99 SeanT What are the growing rumours? Please be specific, perahps without naming names. As far as we can see, we have:
John Reids interview on GMTV
A Sentence on FirstPost
What else is there? There’s not much on the wires. Threats of attacks in Goa, France and Germany perhaps. But nothing too out of the ordinary as we live in gruesome times.
Please respond.
Blair’s “not guilty” plea.
106. Perhaps they should keep Blair imprisoned for 90 days. When they tried to introduce that they stretched that tradition.
Blair seems safe….really think that Brown is getting some tough press tho, when are Labour going to realise he is going to be a nightmare. or are the others waiting in the background to pick up the pieces after his hung Parliament?
108. I’ll write to my MP to complain then.
109. I have heard a number of rumours specifically relating to one place. they were from unrelated sources and both hinted at same thing. Not going in to more detail as only rumours.
The interview news has had a lively effect on the Blair Switch market. Quarter 1 2007 is now out to 10 with Betfair. Even this looks a skimpy price now, since punters on this quarter were almost wholly reliant on an arrest, which now seems unlikely.
Quarter 2 is now down to 1.75 with Quarter 3 at 3.25. Hard to say if there is any value in either price.
Btw, I noticed about a week ago that the the Q1 price had skipped up from about 5.5 to as much as 9 on occasions. There was no hard news to justify this. Odd.
108 Nick P. I take it then that the Thames by the Commons will not be stuffed full of the bodies of Peter Hain opponents !!
Hide them bodies in the cellars of the HoC and hope Guido blows himself up there in a fit of self pity.
108. What an extraordinarily intemperent post.
109. If you dig around, there are plenty of straws in the wind.
Mannigham Buller’s comment, last month, about 1000s of terrorists in the UK plotting attacks.
A recent article in Australia claiming that experts think the UK is now more in danger of attack than Indonesia.
The government’s statement, a few weeks ago, that the UK was now al-Qaeda’s prime target.
And this, a couple of days ago, from Frank Gardner, the BBC guy, speaking at a PR conference:
“[Gardner] also warned that anyone who felt that the threat to the UK from terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda had diminished was wrong.
“If you have any doubt that Britain is a target, don’t just take the Government’s word for it,” added Mr Gardner. “Have a look at some of the Jihadi websites, get someone to translate them for you, and read some of the vitriol that is being expressed on these sites.
“If these people could kill you all on a tube train, they would happily do so.”
Individually, these can all be regarded as the usual stuff. But taken together… from so many different sources… hmmm…
I hope they are wrong. But I fear they may be right. Britain can probably expect a serious attack quite soon.
116 sorry ‘intemperate’
113. Dude, come on, you can’t leave us hanging like that. This isn’t naughty gossip, its people’s lives. I know you don’t want to panic people but perhaps you could share the knowledge discreetly.
Surprise result in N Ireland byelection yesterday ( thanks to report on Vote 2006 for result ) Alliance gain from DUP
Alliance 694 DUP 678 UUP 625 SF 253 SDLP 219
2005 result DUP 1322 ( 2 seats ) UUP 1147 ( 1 seat ) Ind 1008 ( 1 seat ) Alliance 455 SDLP 418 ( 1 seat ) SF 352 .
We need yokel to comment on the significance of this .
Didn’t some of us promise to eat hats if TB was arrested? No need to do this now.
120 The seat was Coleraine Skerries
RE 108, Nick Palmer, Firstly I am not taht surprised that he has been interviewed once not under caution. If the police then think they have something they can always go back and interview him again and of appropriate under caution.
On the Hutton, report, I was not surprised or taht critical of it. Of the BBC he critisised them for what they had admitted. His critisism of the Government was far worse, (Though not like many wanted) because they admitted no wrongdoing. However as everyone had forgotten about the BBC’s admissions they seemed surpised when Hutton agreed (He had no choice anyway). Great piece of spin work by Alistair Campbell.
On the murders things, I don’t know if the police are leaking o this one. Perhaps crime reporters have been watching CSI on channel 5. There is as i understand it more than enough information in those programs for the journalists to say what they like. There is no doubt in my mind that it is however very irresponsible.
On Yates leaking, Nick, I am sorry it looks far more like politicians caught up in the enquiery leaking to me.
New Thread Mike?
Blair’s line: “The honours were not, therefore, for public service but expressly party peerages given for party service” is completely unsustainable against any 12-year-old’s cross-examination, even if the cause-effect link between the ‘loans’(sic!!) and the nominations were not provable beyond reasonable doubt. What ‘Party service’ of any significance have most of these individuals performed other than stumping up cash? How did Blair choose to nominate these cash donors rather than the many other genuine ‘Party servers’, who presumably had been suggested to him by Labour Party officers up and down the country, and who had indeed contributed much to the Party in terms of intellectual and physical application?
But then ‘Blair Tells truth’ WOULD be a front page headline these days. More dissembling over WMD (Wads from Massive Donators) hardly causes a raised eyebrow.
For the first time we have a PM interviewed by the police in connection with a criminal investigation.
I seem to be the only one on here who is actually shocked that this has happened and I do feel that this has done great damage to the reputation of this country.
His party should discover some sense of what being British is and remove him from office. We just do not behave like this.
Politically the longer he stays the better things get for the opposition, so Labour could do the right thing for the country and the right thing for their own reputation.
119. http://www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2006-12-12a.106766.h&s=speaker%3A11109#g106766.q0 fingers crossed only rumours
113,119 If you can’t tell us where, you can certainly tell how many people told you this place and what line of work they were in.
If it happens are you going to feel smug or wishing you said more?
Howards interview wasn’t even known until some time after the interview. So all the talk of burying bad news is just the usual dull fare from the Tory bloggers.
I couldn’t agree more with Nick about the Ipswich inquiry. I don’t think I can remember seeing a police force look and sound so unsuited to their job in hand. I was reminded of an Observer cartoon at the time of the Yorkshire Ripper. George Oldfield was sent to America to help them find their own serial killer. The balloon from his mouth said. “Well chaps you spend the first ten years looking for someone with a Geordie accent…..”
115 Jack - If Guido actually did go out and lay Quarter 2 2007, as he said he intended, he’s not going to have enough money left for the dynamite.
Perhaps we can organise a whip round at the next PB party.
127 Thanks, was in the public domain anyway then.
Thanks. Sobering. That’s Brent Cross off my list of possible-places-to-shop! Not that avoiding Brent Cross is a significant spiritual hardship.
Jonathan, I think you should withdraw the ’smug’ allegation. Jimbo was just being properly discreet, methinks.
“I seem to be the only one on here who is actually shocked that this has happened and I do feel that this has done great damage to the reputation of this country”
Maybe you’re just the most pompous!.
120 I understand the DUP councillor had been found guilty of electoral fraud.
133. nah its fine, no offence taken. Brent Cross is hellish at the best of times, keep putting off the shopping at the memories of queing up in HMV. eeeugh.
Every Xmas there is the same very strong rumour. I suppose the law of averages suggests it could happen one day but I don’t see why these rumours are any more grounded this year than last?
126 When in power the Conservatives behaved like this all the time and cared far more about looking after the interests of their wealthy supporters rather than the reputation of the country whether through life peerages or juicy financial considerations through privatising state industries .
Perhaps we should spread more rumours of possible terror attacks on Brent Cross, then it might be a tiny bit easier to park. Maybe.
Actually, I don’t think the crazed shoppers of Brent X would be put off by imminent nuclear holocaust.
135 - So I believe but I would have thought UUP would have been the benefictionaries .
Some of this stuff, is about like when some footballer is hauled up before the FA and fined for, ‘Bringing the game into disrepute’ what ‘repute’ has the game got left? Same with politics, any ‘repute’ was ‘dissed’ years ago, a lot of it during the last Conservative government. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
I would not have thought that he would have actually felt smug for a nanosecond. Quite the opposite in fact.
So apart from Mercer, where does this “rumour” actually come from. I want to know. Someone must be chatting to those “in the know”. If so, this kind of thing stinks.
Either people should gshut up and get on with the job or they should make the news public so we can all make plans. Let’s not have unoffical briefings when peoples lives are at stake.
Then again, if there weren’t serious arseholes bombing people on the basis of false releigious interpretaion …
137. Well, yes, you’re right of course… but if you read around 9/11 the same pattern happened then: a series of rumours of attacks, which never actuated, and then one day - as people were arguably letting their guard down - BOOM.
The jihadists have been quiet for a while now. I hope it’s because we’re winning the war. But forgive me if I have my doubts.
That said, I think we will win in the end though, because they are boring nihilistic morons.
New Thread
108. Nick, is undermining Yates before he completes his enquiry any less of an offence than other’s doing so after the enquiry if the verdict does not suit them.
I don’t know what the outcome will be, but I have been pretty satisfied that the enquiry has been thorough. Considering the huge press interest it has been quite noticeable that many of the so called leaks have not been proved correct.
Nick: The way police use the media during serial killing cases is extremely tightly controlled and planned. Dont go thinking you know better than them just because you are an MP. Of course, what the media actually go and do is up to them, so whether they’re playng the police’s tune we dont know…
146. Nick’s mask of reasonableness slipping again today, it seems…some of the old tankie attitudes showing through.
Mr Palmer wrote:
“having criticised the police for what appeared to be periodic leaked progress reports on the cash for peerages allegation, I see they’re now doing the same on the serial murders. Deductions about the murderer, compliments to him for his forensic expertise (putting bodies in water to remove DNA traces etc.), briefings about how to avoid leaving evidence - what the hell are they playing at? Even if some of it is misleading to trap this particular murderer, no policeman should be briefing the press on how to destroy evidence.”
Reply:.
When you aren’t leaking. your government makes erroneous deductions all the time in your War of Terror.
You tell us the motives of all these people who want to blow us up has “nothing to do with Iraq.”
You find the 7/7 patsies guilty without any legal basis.
You find Saddam guilty of WMD without credible evidence.
You leaked Dr Kelly’s name in order to send him to the wolves.
And number 10 has been leaking stuff on the cash for honours Inquiry.
All you do is make stuff up at worst or twist the truth at best.
Why don’t you leave the police to do their job. I think the public have more trust in them than in you and phony Tony.
It’s funny how the BBC and the police are so bad according to you Blairites, because they don’t always sychophantically lie down for you as you want them to.
146.
“The way police use the media during serial killing cases is extremely tightly controlled and planned”
like they plan target practice on underground Brazilians?
135.
“I understand the DUP councillor had been found guilty of electoral fraud.”
It was the old Tory nursing home trick. Not that all Tories used to do it mind - and those who did have long-since been warned off.
97: That’s what post90 was about….
Mike, what happened to Mark Warner, who I remember you tipping many months ago? He’s out to 90-1 on Betfair. And why isn’t John Edwards in with a decent chance after doing so well last time? He’s after all a not-nearly-so-inexperienced Senator this time and nearly made teh Dem nomination in his first term.
Warner said he’s not running, while Edwards should be not counted out yet:
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1570071,00.html