ICM puts the Tories in majority government territory
December 20th, 2006-
Cameron’s party back at 40% as he demands a post-Blair election
With the Tory leader, David Cameron ratcheting up the pressure on Gordon Brown to call an immediate General Election when he becomes leader there’s some good news for his party in the latest poll.
ICM’s monthly survey for the Guardian - by far the longest polling series in the UK - puts the Tories back at the 40% level that they were last at in August. The shares, with changes on the last ICM survey at the end of November are: CON 40 (+1): LAB 32 (+1): LD 18 (-2).
The reported decline in the LD share means that the leading Commons seat calculators - from Martin Baxter and Anthony Wells - put David Cameron’s party very close to or above the levels required for a Commons majority. The Baxter calculation gives a Tory majority of 26 while Wells shows the party would be a few seats short.
It should be noted that the survey took place in the three days after Tony Blair’s interview with the police in the honours probe and while the row of the arms contract bribery investigation was at full height.
It should also be noted that in recent months, at least, ICM’s methodology has been producing the best figures for the Tories of all the pollsters. The firm has been the pioneer of the technique known as past vote weighting whereby the sample is weighted in accordance with how respondents said they voted in May 2005 allowing for a level of misremembering.
The firm’s formula for dealing with the latter is more favourable to the Tories than Populus which reported last week that the Tory share was down to just 34% - 1% ahead of Labour.
ICM also found a big increase in the number of respondents saying they believed that the Tories will win the next election. In July this was at 19% - this month it is up to 37%. Amongst declared Tory voters two out of three now believe that they are heading for victory.
A question I have not seen ICM put since the General Election was to ask those in the sample what other parties they might support. For Tory voters this came out at Lib Dems 32%: Green 19%: UKIP 14%. With declared Labour voters the figures were Lib Dems 30%: Green 16%: UKIP 9%.
These numbers should further strengthen David Cameron’s position as he seeks to move his party to the centre ground.
Betting latest. Both Labour and the Tories are at 2.45/1 to win Commons majorities at the next election. A hung parliament is favourite at 1.4/1.
Mike Smithson
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A word to the WISE….
NEVER highlight a SINGLE opinion poll, let alone make it newsworthy….
The Central Limit Theorem will make a monkey of you EVERY TIME….
2. Polls might not always be true to what things are like now but they can become self fulfilling prophecies. Polls can convince parties to ditch leaders, electorates to back a winner, core support to turn out at the ballot box etc
David Cameron got started on momentum from a poll, only time will tell whether he manages to keep that sort of thing up. Here’s one PBC reader who hopes he does
Re 2. Come on Rod - we always aim to put polls in context here. ICM’s last five CON-LAB splits have been:-
So this new poll is hardly out of line with the trend that the pollster’s approach has been picking up for months.
But it is the coverage of the polls by the media that is as important, or even more important than the numbers themselves. That the Guardian is leading on it this morning will have an impact on the overall political environment which is why I reproduce the paper’s front page.
The reason this poll might come as a surprise is that a similar 8% Tory lead in last ICM survey in the News of the World two and a half weeks ago hardly got any coverage at all. The paper made almost no mention of it.
4 - Well Done, Mike. You are always very fair and balanced in your coverage of these polls in their full and proper context. Rod simply doesn’t like the result this one has generated showing the Lib Dems slipping back to 18%.
I hope this will at last stop ConHome trying to spin it that “the Cameron project is faltering” and our lead is a mere 3%.
It is totally outrageous that they use CR in their average of polls.
Mike you are wrong that the NOTW made no mention of what they erroneously reported as a 9% lead. They highlighted it “Nightmare for Cam the cuddly”!
(of course they focused on the tiny diff in the best pm figures, which I think are unweighted)
Merry Christmas Mr. Cameron and may I say you’ve done a bloody good job.
I’m sorry, I missed the fantastic ‘what other parties’ question. A REAL pollster puts this question to a REAL sample of Tory voters and ukip are NOWHERE.
Will this get coverage on ConHome?
Posters there like to trot out Bromley and Chiselhurst. What they fail to recall is that ukip spent like a drunken sailor on that by-election and stood Nigel Garage as their candidate. They utterly bombed and all the Tory loss went to the LibDems, after they eschewed the A list, ran a pinstripe suited middle aged man, and ran a campaign in which DC and his photo were never used once.
The LibDems were the beneficiaries. Not fruitcake parties like ukip.
One more observation - this is real switch to the Tories as a compassionate alternative because Labour have not suffered from the Blair cash for coronets thing (yet - let’s see what happens in January). They are up a point. It suggests we have taken from ‘others’ and maybe some LibDems believe in the changes Cam is making and are prepared to join us, or to vote tactically to get Labour out.
I expect the ConHome spin will be something like “with Blair interviewed by the police, they should be on 50%”. Also interesting that the LibDems are Tories’ party of second choice in a general poll rather than UKIP, as per ConHome.
So ICM has got our Tory friends all dreaming. Well dream on. As RodC says this is just one poll and from the pollster that has been showing the worst picture for Labour. I do not like all this fancy mathematics that ICM uses which seems designed is show Labour in as bad a bad light as possible. Without all of that Labour would be well ahead. And who are all these people who are said to be switching to the Tories? I don’t meet any of them.
As usual Mike’s analysis is excellent. But I can’t help thinking that the Guardian is merely doing its bit for the Tories after George Osborne threatened to remove the monopoly the paper has on advertising government and public sector jobs. Without this taxpayer subsidy, which runs into hundreds of millions, the Guardian could go out of business. And if it did it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people!
Whatever ones leanings, it is a good and encouraging poll for the Conservatives.
7&8, interesting contradiction Commentator, as the LDs seem to be losing a little ground in the poll against the Tories, but when it comes to Bromley etc. we almost pulled off the most improabable of victories.
Perhaps this says more about the influence of candidates and local campaigns than anything else, and is to be welcomed?
Or you could reflect that B&C was quite some time ago now and even back then DC was not used in the campaign. He is appealing to LDs and greens.
Surely this poll shows ICM are understating the Lib Dems…as does every pollster which fails to show them with at least 20% of the vote.
7.”after they eschewed the A list, ran a pinstripe suited middle aged man”
I’m not sure if they would have picked up an A List candidate, it would have been different. Ok, Bob Neil seemed to have lost all his political sense during the campaign, but I think the Libdems would have been attacked A Listers too (they would have found out something to go after like the “3 Jobs Bob”)
If an attractive voice had phoned me last weekend introducing themselves as a representative of ICM and asked who I would vote for if there was to an election tomorrow……..
I would picture Tony Blair in a bear hug with Ehud Olmert shortly before lighting a Hanukka candle in Jerusalem. I would then remember his wise words to the Palestinian Authority ” If you want Western help choose a moderate government of our choosing and re-run your elections of ten months ago”…….
I would then get a quick flash of him bunkered down in the Green zone of Iraq telling the beleagered city that “Democracy made all the sacrifice worthwhile”…….
And as the attractive voice began to hurry me……
I would probably remember the Saudi Arms deal and wonder why we were allowing the most repressive undemocratic state on earth such a large say in our judicial system? Infact I’d wonder why we were selling them arms to them at all…….
……… And then I’d picture him on the podium with George Bush with a limp Union Jack in the background and wonder whether they were still sharing toothpaste?
……..And Margaret Becket explaining why Chatham House had got it wrong. “Tony Blair didn’t get Iraq wrong and he’s one of the most respected leaders in the world”……………..
And the voice would ask again “Should I say undecided?” and I’d say “Well definately not Labour”……………..
But then the Tories wouldn’t be able to read Polly Toynbee’s columns in search of metaphors on relative poverty to replace those of Churchill.
re 17. That reads like a film script Roger.
Re. 17, and Saudi Arabia being ‘the most repressive undemocratic state on earth’, I suspect there’s severe competition for that description from North Korea.
17 Are you well enough to shoot a new PPB for us, Roger?
How anyone in their right mind can say Cameron hasn’t/isn’t doing well is quit beyond me. The Tories are at 40% get it!
I still do not think that this means that they will win a majority at the next election. Labour put in some pretty incredible poll leads in 87-92 and still lost and in terms of seats the Tories are still in a worse position than Foot. If they have this lead twelve months post Brown I will feel differently.
In my bones, I still feel this has more to do with Labour’s woes than Cameron’s successes. Can we measure this in the polls?
The Guardian Article that goes with the poll is really worth a read.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/polls/story/0,,1975783,00.html
They take a slightly different spin on the poll…
Meanwhile Conservative support seems to have reached a maximum of 40%, almost certainly not enough to give Mr Cameron a majority at a general election. Although the result would leave him as leader of the largest party, Conservatives have yet to break through to an election-winning position.
And the stuff on the Greens at 3% is interesting.
[22] Good post, Jonathan. Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them.
What would be interesting - and I suspect that YouGov, with its panel, would be best placed to do it - would be a “three in one” poll with sub-samples drawn from Con/Lab, Con/LD and Lab/LD seats - I expect this will be done, but not until a lot nearer the election.
[11] Do explain to us how this country would be a better place if the dear old Grauniad went out of business, UKDP, I’m sure we’re all agog. Nobody makes Tory Councils use its classified pages, you know. And the Times Ed Supp would be surprised to hear that it has a monopoly on adverts for teaching jobs, too …
Nice to see some firm evidence of the massive haemmoraghing of Tory support to UKIP which has been remarked on by the sharp-antennaed posters on this site and on the excellent ‘ConHome’. Nigel Farage will be thrilled with the 1% rating his party has.
An unusually good post from roger - but I’m still not sure that all the things he mentions are purely Bliar’s fault. Surely El Gordo is just as much involved in all those decisions as the PM.
Cameron’s done well so far, and if the tories are posting over 40% in YouGov and ICM polls on a regular basis by next summer then I will be prepared to believe the GE result will be a tory win. Anybody betting though should surely still believe a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. The Labour vote strikes me as remarkably resilient and is a testament to the political skills of those at the top of the most mendacious incompetent and authoritarian government I can remember.
19. Yes Mike. “The Lost Weekend!!”
22. Jonathon. If I had to put my house on it in a choice of all three possible results at the next eltion I would bet on Labour with an overall majority. Nonetheless at the moment the party is leaderless. Blair is hanging around like a bad smell and the longer he stays the harder it’s going to be for Brown. Loyalty to a party isn’t automatic and from being his number one fan I now can’t distinguish his behaviour from the last Tory governments that I loathed.
Peter at 21. Unfortunately I’m not yet fit enough! I’m in Didsbury (Withington constituency) at the moment and got a very nice Xmas card from John Leech signed by the whole team of 18 people. It’s quite an interesting idea. I’ve never known MP’s to send Xmas cards before
It is a little bemusing that the LDs arent yet doing better.
As the The Party sinks supporters would seek a switch to avoid a wasted vote. Certainly the BNP will gain but the LibDems should be the biggest winners.
It could be the LDs chance to return from a Century in the wilderness
27 Indeed, the absence of leadership is so obvious. And Blair seems to be going our of his way to be controversial. We should have ditched him in late 2004/early 2005. Oh well.
25 Unfortunately, the Non-tory Right vote seems to be heading to the BNP at the moment. Above 10% in certain wards.
UKIP are indeed amazingly weak at the moment, do doubt in part due to the Tory resurgence. I wonder what will happen to them at the Euros. A potential minefield for Cameron.
27.”I’ve never known MP’s to send Xmas cards before ”
Didn’t they usually also do some sort of “Christmas Cards” competition (usually in association with local schools) to pick up the picture to put on it?
17 If roger is looking for alternatives, this is surely the end of The Party.
to save people the trouble of looking at the postings on ConHome here’s a sample from the leading site for sensible COnservative opinion
“Just imagine what a lead we would have if Hague or Davis were running the party instead of the current effete pair of pseudo-aristocrats with their well-scrubbed Teacher’s Pet faces.”
or even better
Incidentally I’ve never wasted much time on PoliticalBetting.com, but as far as I can see it’s nothing more than a hot air blog created by the overinflated ego of some complete nonentity.
you couldn’t make it up
I’m not sure Andrea. Maybe in Central London they don’t have to bother because their majority is big enough? Anyway apart from a little white lie on the accompanying letter it’s very good PR indeed.
17.
Apparently Roger, President Ahmedjani of Iran is coming to Paris tomorrow to deliver a speech. He will be calling on all ‘moderate’ Christian countries to disown terrorists in government in one or two countries who gaily slaughter tens of thousands of innocents on the back of a pack of lies for the sake of their own egos, and for the people of those countries to rise up and vote such people out.
Christmas cards from MPs are nothing new.I have a rather splendid Xmas card sent to constituents by Sir Ernest Graham-Little MP (independent) in 1938. And that was in the days when they had to pay for things themselves.
22
Why isn’t Cameron doing well when the Tories are at 40 per ent? Easy. Unless particular third parties are making a significant impact for some special reason (rare event not happening at the moment) then when people are discontented with the government a whole chunk of their previous supporters will say “I’ll vote “. It’s the ultimate protest vote.
33. Roger, the annual Christmas Card competition (in association with local schools) is usually quite common and many MPs do it.
Then I don’t know who they send the Christmas Card to..if it’s just to friends and collegues or to the whole constituency.
I’m sure other MPs sent it to at least a good sample of his constituents (for ex Tom Brake claims he’ll send it to around 1,300 residents)
This is the winner of Hilary Armstrong 2005 Christmas Card competition:
http://www.hilaryarmstrong.com/images/christmascard.jpg
35 - they still do have to pay for them themselves. It is expressly forbidden to pay for “greetings cards” from public money!
36.
Whoops, accidental html error. Should be “I’ll vote{mainoppositionparty]”
30 I know Brown does (I have his choice on the desk in the office). I never got one from anyone else.
27 Look after yourself. Hope you’re allowed a drink or two on xmas day.
38. Unless you’re an MEP. They all get public money for ‘advertisement’. Disgraceful but true.
27. Its perhaps only because they got an new expenses allowance for it this year Roger…..
Again, I don’t believe the polls are reflecting quite what is going on in the country. I have long thought the situation is worse for Labour and the Tories could be in majority territory already. Assuming the Tories do keep on track, I’m pretty convinced that polls are likely to understate their actual support at the booth up until the last moment. A lot of people out there who gave Tony a break in 2005 are ready for change.
17. So the President of Iran has a problem ith Sinn Fein….well theres a turn up for the books eh…
28. The LD’s will not break through their current levels at Westminster, end of.
“I’ve never known MP’s to send Xmas cards before”
I’ve had cards on a regular basis from 2 MPs for helping out in their campaigns in the past.
None this year so far so I’m obviously not doing enough!
37……..And an excellent picture by Hilary Armstrong (aged sixty one and a half)
44. Roger. To be fair with Hilary the Useless, it was designed by young Sophie:
http://www.hilaryarmstrong.com/news/christmas_card.php
Morning all :). First, belated good wishes to Jack W. and let’s hope he’s soon back among us.
A very good poll for the Conservatives this morning and there’s no sense denying it. It is of course at odds with Populus as far as the Tory rating is concerned. The ICM poll changes are of course within the margin of error but the very fact that the picture has, according to ICM, changed little in the past month is interesting.
I suspect the one thing it will mean is no “snap” election once Blair leaves. Brown, like Major in November 1990 or Callaghan in 1976, is under no obligation whatsoever to call an election and clearly won’t if he thinks he’s going to lose.
My guess is we could be going on right into 2010 unless the polls change.
Finally, and whatever your political leanings or lack of them, let me wish everyone on pb.com a Merry Christmas. Special seasonal greetings to Mike and Robert without whose efforts we would all be shouting in the dark…..
kjh. This card from John Leech was obviously sent to all 60,000 constituents (I’ve done nothing for them-I don’t usually vote here ). They were delivered by hand so I guess that was quite a saving.
47. It can be possible that they just delivered it to a sample and not to the whole constituency.
At the risk of being boring, (what me!) I have pointed out before the flitting 5% of left/liberal voters bouncing between the three main parties, Guardian/Independent types. This 5%, are very news concious, they have left Labour due to Iraq, can’t make up their minds between Cons and LibDems. They feel Cameron is singing from their song sheet, Ming is nice but not dynamic enough, to old too appeal. The amazing thing about this poll, is despite it all, Labour vote is till holding up fairly well, 2/3% back to them in a GE and they are back in government.
47/48. Btw, how much time would it require to deliver a Christmas Card (by hand) to a whole constituency?
Odd - this poll clearly isnt as newsworthy as the 39-29 poll which had a 10% lead. Disappointing for the LibDems to be back under 20%, but I’m sure they will climb back up in the new year when local election campaigning increases exposure.
Re: Jack W “To those who know the true identity behind Jack W and kept a little secret” - should we conclude that his true identity is someone of interest?
47. Was it true they were delivered by Poles who were willing to do the work?……………..
This could be a test inspired by John Hutton…
52. More likely delivered by Focus Team who took an hour off their job to deliver Christmas Greetings by John Leech….and maybe adding rumours that the local hospital, postal office, cinema, church, public toilets and brothel are in the verge of closure and it’s all government fault (in the brothel case, Harriet Harman’s fault!
50
Obviously it varies, but round here 210-220 person hours assuming that I am the standard person. I ‘budget’ on the basis of 6 hrs /’000.
52.
Of course Poles (but not Cheeky Girls just yet!) can validly register as electors and vote in local 9but not general) elections!
54. Goddamnit an entire conspiracy theory destroyed.
56. yes, and SNP is targetting them with a version of their manifesto in Polish
55. thanks…but I’m not sure if I’ve understood
54.
“the local hospital, postal office, cinema, church, public toilets and brothel are in the verge of closure”
Perhaps if they were all combined on site, Gordon Brown can tax the brothel bit (and the toilet bit and the church bit?) to keep the hospital bit and post office bit open - and use the cinema as a diversion to keep the plebs in the queues/waiting lists happy?
51.
Ian McCartney MP is not well but I’m not sure whether he can do joined-up writing, let alone handle a keyboard. His Caledonianism is of a different nature to Jack W’s, however.
57. Yokel
My 54 comment was inspired by this 2 EDMs.
Labour MPs are still pissed off by his campaign and so last week they tabled this EDM:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=32102&SESSION=885
They can have simply written: “That this House believes that JL is a liar”
LD MPs naturally hit back:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=32155&SESSION=885
They could have written: “Taht this House believes that some Labour MPs are frankly ignorant and they can’t even spell the hospital name”
On party funding, great article by…wait for it… John Redwood (I know!) today in the Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/12/20/do2002.xml
First time I’ve ever agreed with him, I rekon…
In 2004 Oona King posted out Christmas cards on HOC mail. They were sponsored by Lloyds Bank.
I understand the one that reached George Galloway caused some controversy.
A passing O/T thought: if Mike or anyone else knows Jack W’s real contact details, perhaps he might enjoy getting yesterday’s thread sent to him. As he didn’t respond I guess he’s already offline.
I thought the last week would help the Tories a bit, and any other polls this week are likely to show something similar. I think that Labour was doing quite well the week before, and the underlying Tory lead will prove after Xmas still in the 3-5% range.
Xmas cards? My predecessor used to give boxes of chocolates to every retirement home! I thought this was overdoing it a bit, and didn’t follow his example, but I send cards to helpers and people who send cards to me. As andrea says, the ‘get schools to design the card’ is a pretty widespread idea. I’ve never heard of anyone sending one to every home though - the cost of printing would be intimidating for, I’d have thought, rather limited benefit. Another common idea that I don’t practice is sending all new 18-year-old voters a card saying “Congratulations! You can now help decide the future of the country!” which I suspect tends to get binned with a cynical grin.
Offline myself from this evening. Happy Xmas all!
I have just been sent a YouGov BrandIndex Poll to complete before 10:00 am on Friday morning. They usually have a political question or two after interminable (and in my case usually unanswerable) questions about what I think about numerous brands I have never heard of.
I am not sure what the flash-to-bang time is for these things, but presumably it will be in the New Year rather than next week.
You really are extraordinarily perceptive Andrea! Though the card looked innocuous enough-infact more than that 18 signitures on a nice snowy scene in a local park taken by a local photographer-the message accompanying it did just what you suggest.
I quote “……I was so pleased to see the excellent new critical care unit opened at Christie’s hospital after the uncertainty last year over the hospitals future. Backing the doctors campaign to defend the Christie brought us together as a community we can all be proud of…….”
Unfortunately this is quite untrue. There was never a possibility that this very specialized hospital would close.
Nick, the 18 year old congratulation cards work. True 95 - 99% hit the bin in the time it takes to walk from the letter box to the bin, but so do all the normal leaflets. It is the cumulative effect plus if it has the effect on 1 in 100 politically aware student to respond and you can turns them in to an activist their energy and spare time is often worth many normal activists in terms of activity - you only have to look at what LDYS achieve particularly in University towns.
7 It’s unlikely that anyone other than Bob Neill would have held the seat.
Re 7, Sean could you please elaborate why you think that? The LDs ran a consistent negative message on “3 jobs Bob” in what looked like an effective campaign and nearly won.
69 He was the only potential candidate (apart from Carol Forth, I should add) who had any plausible local connection to the constituency. Parachuting in outsiders is now electoral death in Parliamentary by-elections.
The unfortunate truth about B & C is that the Lib Dems campaign effectively in by-elections, latching onto every potential weakness, and we don’t.
I’d like to know a lot more about the question about “which other party might you vote for.” Are the percentage figures those for *all* Conservative voters, or only those who say they might switch? Does it apply to *all* types of election, or only Parliamentary elections?
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if large numbers of Conservatives were prepared to consider voting Lib Dem in local elections (there are lots of them in Bushey for example). I’d be alarmed if as many as 32% were prepared to consider voting Lib Dem at Parliamentary level.
The one finding I consider implausible is 19% contemplating voting Green. IIRC, there was little split-ticket voting between Conservatives and Greens in the London Assembly elections. Split-ticket voting between Conservatives and UKIP was much more common then.
70. Sean, don’t you think that Carol Forth would have been a risky option considering that she hasn’t a big political experience and during byelections candidates are exposed to much scrutiny compared to GEs?
I think that’s probably right, Andrea, so I think Bob Neill was the only realistic choice.
[64] I second Nick Palmer’s suggestion re Jack W and yesterday’s thread.
[73] I don’t think either the Tories or Labour can find strong candidates for by-elections.
68, What utter nonsense Sean, sorry to disagree with you so strongly but the facts do not bear that out.
Bromley was a rejection of the anti-Cameron brigade, with a campaign that featured DC nowhere and had a candidate described as ‘three jobs Bob’ who actually had a legal challenge. None of the Cameron playbook was used anywhere, and the votes lost went to the left, not to the right. Bob Neil in addition was a Europhile standing in Eric Forth’s seat.
IIRC there was a young,Eurosceptic, local married woman candidate with a family and no extraneous jobs in the final. She would have limited our losses.
Of course I am delighted to have Bob in Parliament but mistakes were made and they were mistakes of rejecting Cameron.
73. On reflection Trish Law managed to go well without political experience, but maybe it’s a different situation (she was an independent and so no party policies to study and back up and so on) and not comparable.
As to “local” Bob did not even rent in the constituency and only promised to move if elected, not when selected, even though it wa as safe as houses.
Nick. Very Merry Christmas to you. I really enjoy a sensible Labour poster.
The principal mistake, Commentator, was that CCHQ and the local party expected an easy victory - and underestimated how well the Lib Dems would fight the campaign, and didn’t work anything like hard enough to get our supporters out to vote. Cameron is not some talisman, who’ll suddenly transform our long-standing poor performance in Parliamentary by-elections - witness Dunfermline.
75.”None of the Cameron playbook was used anywhere, and the votes lost went to the left”
Actually I think the biggest losses were to the “stay at home” party.
Changes in total votes:
Con -11,962
LD +1,620
Lab -8,316
UKIP +872
Greens -659
In the end the Con to LD switchers could have been just a tiny number.
“IIRC there was a young,Eurosceptic, local married woman candidate with a family and no extraneous jobs in the final. She would have limited our losses. ”
Julia Manning was on the shortlist. I wouldn’t be surprised if the LDs would have tried to make her look like a bigot quoting from Conservative Christian Fellowship website.
But maybe it would have been a vote winner in Bromley.
My point is that our failings in by-elections are based on poor organisation, not on insufficient use of the leader.
Ming Campbell is not a hugely popular figure, but that doesn’t stop the Lib Dems doing well in by-elections - the one form of political campaigning they have made themselves masters of.
Well the poll is good news Mike, but it is only one poll! Let us see how the other polls pan out. Still, I seriously think that by the time we hit the next GE the Conservatives will be on 40% or over.
79.” Cameron is not some talisman, who’ll suddenly transform our long-standing poor performance in Parliamentary by-elections - witness Dunfermline. ”
I think that you could have not expected much from Dunfermline anyway.
Sean, come off it, “witness Dunfermline”? A Scottish constituency where we were nowhere? Our voters there if anything went tactical to get Labour out.
You can’t possibly suggest a by-election in a safe Lab Scottish constituency offers any barometer.
Nick Robinson reported on News 24 that the police have asked people “around Blair” for more documents.
81 but of course I must cede that in almost any by-election the LDs start as joint favourites. Why they have it locked up is a mystery but they certainly do.
85!!! Really?
Oh Dear, Corbyn is really thinking about a Deputy Leadership Bid
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/deputyleader/story/0,,1975968,00.html
I think that he has absolutely no chance to get 44 nominations, because the soft left will back Jon Cruddas.
Re 81 Sean Fear “My point is that our failings in by-elections are based on poor organisation, not on insufficient use of the leader.”
I agree that poor organisation is the biggest element.
But, not using the best asset of the Leader and taking no action to reduce Bob’s negatives demonstrated an amateur and naive approach.
Iain Gray (former Scottish Transport minister..he lost his seat in 2003) has been selected as the Labour candidate in East Lothian for Holyrood elections.
86 Commentator: “Why they have it locked up is a mystery but they certainly do.”
It is really down to history. We got punished by 1st past the post so had to focus on targeting we also lacked the funds of Conservatives/Labour so concentrated on activists. So we can put together an effective team with some manic activists. Come a by election these resources are focused. They will come from far afield so we can out number and out organise at a local level (which we can’t do at a national level). Our financial disadvantage of course disappears as it is a by election so will throw resources at it and the limits are greater so we can deliver just about anything.
80 Andrea: Re mainly explained by the stay at homes. This is a common fallacy. In my opinion it isn’t the case. The LD voters stay at home as well. Often the LD opponents try and convince themselves that this was the case as a consolation. All they have to do is look at the canvas returns and the voters register after the event to see the facts. Conservatives are as good at getting their vote out as the LDs. In fact my experience is that (outside of a by election) they are actually better at it. It is primarily switching (mainly a squeeze but also from the main opponent) due to the volume of the campaign. If the LDs win they stand a reasonable chance of holding the seat. If they lose (even if only just) it reverts.
Re Sean’s comments. For those of you that disagree with Sean’s analysis I would just like to comment that in my opinion he knows what he is talking about. I don’t think I have ever disagreed with his analysis of Conservative v LD campaigns. I wouldn’t like to be campaigning against him!
91. The strange thing about Bromley was though that there was very little sense the result would be close until the very last minute….the usual Lib Dem hyping of their chances was notably absent during most of the campaign. Had their been a lot of switching detected by canvassing surely this would not have been the case.
91 Yes, I agree with you about SF’s analytical skills, kjh. He has become PB’s leading authority on the subject and never fails to provide an objective account, his own polital preferences notwithstanding.
91 and 93, thanks.
92 Everything I heard from B & C suggested it would be okay. When I went there on the day, I had no sense that our vote was going to drop sharply. I think that we should simply assume that in any seat where the Lib Dems are going to be at least second to us, in a by-election, that it will be an extremely hard battle and plan accordingly.
I did get some idea of the complacency on our part though, when I knocked on the door of someone who identified himself as a member of the Executive, and was most put out that I should have knocked on his door to remind him to vote.
92. That is a good point as I received considerably less emails, post and calls to go and help than on other occasions. There was some flack in LD News afterwards that more help was needed earlier.
Assuming only limited canvas data from before and a full canvas during the election and then getting the register of who voted after the election meaningful analysis of what happened should be pretty easy after the event (although probably not done!)
During the election with such a margin to make up and assuming limited historic canvas data there would I guess have been litle switching data and the concentration would be on full blown campaigning. It is not as if the resources would be switched to another campaign as you may get during national elections when anlysing canvas returns and switching analysis.
91 Sean: “91 and 93, thanks.” No problem. Just glad there aren’t more like you! Are you sure you weren’t trained by the LDs
What I found most interesting in Mike´s presentationtoday was this:
“A question I have not seen ICM put since the General Election was to ask those in the sample what other parties they might support. For Tory voters this came out at Lib Dems 32%: Green 19%: UKIP 14%. With declared Labour voters the figures were Lib Dems 30%: Green 16%: UKIP 9%.”
It would appear that 55% of Labour voters ae open to persuasion to vote for another party; while in the case of the Tories it is no less than 65%. In both cases, the big winners of potential switchers are the Lib Dems.
So it would seem that the support for the major parties - indeed, probably for all of them - is decidedly soft.
94 - Sean, the complacency problem seems deep seated in Conservative politics. I can’t remember how often I read warnings about complacency surrounding the B&C by-election with everyone saying it was something to watch out for and still the tories nearly threw the seat away. Is the persistent reluctance of local associations to think about by-elections as a national party issue a problem that the tories need to address? The LDs seem to have no such problem despite having very independently-minded local associations.
97. It’s a multi-answer question - “Asked to name one or more other parties that they might support, ..”
I imagine that quite a few respondents want to appear open-minded and say that they would consider supporting other parties.
99 - Kevin could one repondent therefore give the name of more than one party.
If so I’m sure their would be some cross over between those saying they would support the Greens and the Lib Dems.
98 - The other interesting thing is that the problem seems to manifest itself largely at a constituency level. We seem to be able to do reasonablly well (comparitively) at ward level in local by-elections. You would think some lessons could be learned from this.
100. Max, the way the Guardian is reporting it strongly suggests that it was possible to name more than one party. We’ll see when ICM publish the full tables.
88. Apparently he’s 40 MPs short of the 44 to get on the ballot paper. Best just sit this one out Jeremy.
100-from http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.com/ (labour )
“Of lab , 30% would consider voting LD, 18% would consider voting Tory, 16% would consider voting Green, 9% would consider voting UKIP
Of Tory supporters, 32% would consider voting LD, 19% would consider voting Green, 14% would consider voting UKIP and only 10% would consider voting Labour
Of Lib Dem supporters, 32% would consider voting Labour, 30% would consider voting Green, 18% would consider voting Tory.
Of “other” voters (the biggest components of which are the SNP and Greens), 38% would consider voting LD, only 17% would consider voting Labour.
Re 101, recent local by elections show a mixed picture of success for Conservatives. Where Conservatives have done well is in the regular May local elections which reinforces kjh point.
91.”Re mainly explained by the stay at homes. This is a common fallacy. In my opinion it isn’t the case. The LD voters stay at home as well”
I just partially agree. I think one of most important thing about byelections machines is getting your vote out (considering a low turnout is likely) and I would be surprised if % rate of LD getting their vote out is lower than other parties.
Obviously some 2005 LDs stayed at home, but they probably get Labour switchers. So I don’t think that the Con to LD switchers were a big proportion in the end.
103. HenryG. Who the hell are the other 2 MPs (other than him and John McD) who would back him?!!!
102 -Data for the poll is at http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Politics/documents/2006/12/20/ICMpollDecember.pdf
They could answer with as many as they wanted
104 Interesting. If you take it seriously it suggests that the upper limit for Tory support is 49%*, for Labour 43.5%, and for Lib Dems 44.5%. (Or so it says on the back of this envelope).
* plus whatever share of “others” voters would consider voitng for them -
95.”Assuming only limited canvas data from before”
I suppose the pre byelection LD canvass data was very limited if they didn’t know where John Spellar lived and they sent Teather to canvass him
98 The worrying thing about B & C was that CCHQ were heavily involved in the campaign, and still the seat was nearly lost. I just don’t know who was in overall charge though.
Suppose you have a typically safe Conservative seat which votes Con 55%, Lab 25%, Lib Dem 20%. People assume that it doesn’t matter who you field, the Conservatives will win - which is probably true in general election conditions. It would help concentrate minds wonderfully in a by-election campaign if we assmed from the outset that the Lib Dems will squeeze Labour to below 10%, and we will lose a few to UKIP; in reality we’re defending a lead of 10-15%, not a lead of 30%.
91/106. Putting in another way, I would be surprised if the majority of the 11,000 lost Tory votes had gone to the Libdems and not to the “stay at home” party.
And I think it can fit well with Sean Fear’s thought that they didn’t see the big fall on their vote coming and with LDs not hyping the result too much.
108 - sorry I should have been clearer, the extract from Lukes blog is around those who said they would consider switching when the question was put ,if you look at the raw data above you can factor in those who refused to switch etc….
The green vote is striking ,and potentially damaging to the LD’s.
RE 108, Peter, interesting numbers.
Michael Meacher is set to stand for the leadership (with Alan Simpson backing)
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labourleadership/story/0,,1976094,00.html
But he won’t officially announce his candidacy until he reaches 44 backers (which can actually be never)
Anyway congratulations to Mr McDonnell, Mr Meacher and Mr Simpson for showing once again how strategically inept Labour Left can be! You would struggle to get 44 names anyway and you even split in 2 factions!
I’m sure Sean Fear is absolutely right at 110.
114. It’s widely known that the Socialist Campaign Group are the most egotistical and least collegiate of all parliamentary groupings. They are entirely devoid of discipline and tactics. How do they compare to other ’socialist’ groupings in Italy Andrea?
Andrea: Getting the vote out usually only plays a part if things are very tight. It is very marginal. If they are not going to vote, they generally aren’t going to vote. Typically on knock up if each person doing it influences one or two people to go down to the polling station that would be a result (and that could matter so I’m not denying the importance of it, but you are talking about a few hundred votes). Also as mentioned I think the Tories are very good at the knock up. I think they are better than the LDs (a lot by telephone), but I wouldn’t be sure if that was true in a parliamentary by election.
In summary all parties votes drop dramatically, therefore the same percentage margin is a much small actual margin. As you say LDs squeese the 3rd party ruthlessly and then only require a small switch from the Tories, but that switch happens.
Re canvas data: I would guess it was limited and although you try and note known people it is too much of a panic to worry to much. You just go and do it and anyway it leads to good stories - At the Romsey by election someone I was canvassing with got the response ‘But don’t you know who I am? I’m the local Conservative xxxx’. Can’t remember what. To which the reply was (lying) ‘Yes I do but can we rely on your vote in the by election?’
166. kih. Thanks, even if I’m still not convinced.
106. I understand that they don’t want their names to be made public yet. Very wise.
118. why is it wiser? I meant, I doubt they would lose much being named (I suppose they’re people on the Left anyway). Once JC will decide he won’t run, they can switch to another candidate.
120. Either they already know it’s a doomed mission or perhaps they’ve already pledged their support to other people!
116/17. Ah, with “getting your vote out”, I didn’t simply mean the “knock up”. I included the potential effect of bombarding the constituency with campaign materials which can remind past voters why they’ve voted for you and so firming their support.
Anyway I didn’t say there weren’t switchers, just that I think they’re much less than what the % falls can suggest.
120. HenryG. I wouldn’t be surprised if some people are promised their support to both McD and MM!
it can end up with people not speaking to each other for months
My late mother, (a right wing Tory, Daily Mail reading, Cameron is a leftie etc)voted Lib Dem at the last local elections. She asked me to endorse her postal vote. I asked why ??? She said the Lib Dems were the only ones who came to her door, spoke to her and asked her to vote for them.
122. I found that that exact same thing when I went round during the locals, people with no affiliation or even with would tell us they would vote Lib Dem purely because we knocked on their door…strange but true.
Andrea 117: Just cos I say it, it doesn’t mean I’m right!
Andrea 121: Ahh agree with all that 100%. Bombard with effective literature if you are trying to convert and of course I agree with your 2nd para. As mentioned a) the margin drops as large numbers stay at home, b) squesse Labour, c)convert
122. During the 1983 leadership election Kinnock and Hattersley’s camps regularly swapped their lists not to see who was playing a double game. The now MP for Leicester West even went further
Hattersley:
“Neil Kinnock had just read me a letter that Patricia Hewitt had sent him earlier in the week. It expressed the devout hope and profound conviction that he would lead the party and offered her services as his press secretary. I had received an identical letter.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,,1535594,00.html
124. kjh, in the end I’ve decided I can agree with you
125. Great!
4. Mike, it wasn’t a dig at you. It was irritation at the Guardian’s ludicrous headline. Since Cameron became leader no fewer than 19 polls have shown the Tories at 39% or above, some have even had them as high as 41%. Nevertheless, the best evidence indicates they have been in a DOWNWARD pattern since June, certainly since August. They have crested 39% on no fewer than 5 occasions, January, June(twice), July and August, and are nowhere near that figure now….
Any chance of another guest slot?
It seems that the Cheeky Girls won’t be deported http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6196675.stm
Quiz:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/quiz/
I got 21 out 25… I got wrong number 1, 15, 21 and 22
I was interested to read that what really won her heart were long conversations about astronomy.
126. Andrea have I just battered you in to submission with the sheer bloody mindedness of my posts.
Of course all my knowledge was gained at the appropriate gyms.
131. kjh. I picked up my BromleyMyTime (More than just a gym membership!) card and I immediately phoned for a session to get the relevant info about byelection switchers!
And then I’ve promised to be nice with the Libdems and not laying into them
And then I’ve promised to be nice with the Libdems and not laying into them
129- I got 23
, though some were guess’s
I got 22/25, which I’m embarrisingly pleased with.
132. Sounds better than my gym so you must be right.
What are these rumours about being nasty to LDs - you’ve always been nice to me!
Well well, so Meacher is going to to go ahead.
136. Do you want him to stand to see if there’ll be some Drama Queen personal fallout among Labour Left?! It can be cruel….
137 - “That reminds me of the Spitting Image skit on Sting, that went “The Leader of the House is Michael Meacher; you can tell I used to be a teacher!”
“You scored 23 out of a possible 25″
sad
Ah McDonnell is dead meat now. If the left want to have a symbolic boot they’ll put it on Meachers leg….
On the wonders of selection and deslection and somewhat off topic, my friends in Sinn Fein seem to happily deselecting people with little official clarity as to why….
RE 129, Andrea I got 22
I see that the Warrington South Libdems have selected Jo “Miss 2.2%” Crotty. She stood in Eddisbury last year and LD vote increased by 2.2%, then she stood in Staffordshire South delayed election and LD increased by 2.2%… will she keep her record?!
136 - Yokel “…So Meacher is going to to go ahead.”
Hasn’t exactly been a stampede to back him on Betfair.
I got 17 - does that mean I am thick or have a life?
142 - OK Andrea, your challenge is to name the constituencies that she should stand in in order to win
I’ve answered my own question:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/liberal-democrat-target-seats/
Ludlow looks ideal for a knife-edge result!
143. Well he’s not exactly in with much of a chance is he!
141. Benedict, it seems I’m aheading for last place!
140. Yokel, it’s not that MM is this great vote winner either! In terms of controversies, McD has his IRA comments and MM his 9/11 suggestions.
I see that MM has already made his u-turn over Iraq War (he voted for the war). I wonder if he’ll have one about Foundation Hospitals too.
104 - Of Lib Dem supporters, 30% would consider voting Green.
I strongly advise the Green Party to put this in a bar chart when challenging Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems are clearly very soft and squeezy.
147 True, Yokel, but you’d have thought his Mum might have had a few bob on him.
Re 148 Andrea, no Tabman has beaten you with 17
140. Ah, I forgot to add that I think that MM can get more MPs than McD (ministerial past can boost his credibility). I suppose that the 2 factions should find an agreement in the end if at least one of them want to reach the ballot papers.
Shes smarter than that Peter……..
Re Meacher…in the early 80’s he was a Bennite and he stood for the Left in 1983 deputy leadership election.
However in 1984 the NEC had to vote on a Tony Benn’s resolution to support Arthur Scargill’s decision to strike without balloting his members. It was neck and neck. Meacher was the last one called to vote and at that point the situation was a tie.
Roy Hattersley recalled that moment in a Guardian’s piece:
“The executive was so evenly divided that, when the last name was called, the vote was tied. The last name