Is Miliband replacing Reid in the “what if” slot?
December 21st, 2006
Is the “Climate Change” debate giving him the opportunity to shine?
The Labour leadership has appeared such a certainty for so long that we have barely discussed the “events dear boy - events” scenario of who would be in contention if something untoward happened to Gordon Brown or his campaign.
And there’s one figure who has started to pick up support again - David Miliband the young Environment Secretary. As the chart showing best betting prices illustrates there has been a bit of a move to Miliband which is probably linked to a series of recent assured performances on the climate change issue.
As the FT’s, Gideon Rachman, wrote this week there has been a flurry interest in the scientific case on climate change following a long and closely-argued attack in the Sunday Telegraph by Viscount Christopher Monckton, a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher – “who like many Thatcherites suspects that global warming is a socialist plot.”
The Monckton article has “become a new sacred text for climate-change sceptics” and has helped keep it on the news agenda. All this has provided an excellent platform for the quiet intellectual approach of Miliband who always seems to be popping up in the media at the moment.
Clearly Miliband is not going to run against Gordon - but in the “what if” scenario he must be a better bet than John Reid.
Mike Smithson
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It’s probably worth reminding any Thatcherites out there about who opened the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - probably the leading climate research centre in the world. It was a certain Margaret Thatcher, who certainly wasn’t of the opinion that “global warming is a socialist plot.”
Maybe it’s about time for Thatcher to “do a Marx” and declare that, “if these people are Thatcherites, then I’m not a Thatcherite.”
Miliband must surely be a better bet than Reid. He’s young, has hair and won’t be painted as an authoritarian hard case in any election campaign. Labour would have to be mugs to choose him. Although here’s another possibility. If something *did* happen to knock Brown from the lead, but not out completely, there could be a very aggressive and nasty fight between the Brownites and the Blairites - which could lead to a third “unite the wings” candidate coming through. Someone like Hilary Benn, for example.
Re: my comments in post 2. Meant to say “mugs to choose Reid”, obviously.
re 1 - thatcher also thought 50% income tax rate was fair.
Benn should be the what if candidate in my opinion, i seriously recommend him for winning the dep race.
In fact for betting purposes i think we should have a count of were the votes on this site go in the deputy race. Someone may appear we have not thought off!!
Red Flag: 2 votes (1 member, 1 union) Benn
4. 5 votes (1 member, two unions, plus Co-op and Fabians) from HenryG - all for Jon Cruddas
Agree with your logic on David Miliband Mike and backed him last week. Part of the Labour Party is awaking to the fact the Gordon is not as popular as they once thought. I’m not sure under what circumstances Brown wouldn’t stand, but Miliband is the leading ‘next generation’ candidate, is bright, English and inoffensive. He does have other weaknesses but his price looked too big.
All this reflects is the mention of ‘total renewal’ and a ‘new generation’ in the ‘we are an utter shambles’ memo, and the idea that DM is backed by Blair.
Nothing but a major scandal would stop Brown now and Reid would get it.
NU Lab can choose who they like, it won’t make any difference. The scenario that is playing out is exactly the same as the Thatcher Major situation.
It’s possible there will be a hung Parliament, but the Govt is so mired in sleaze that I forsee a 1997 scenbario at the next election.
Nu Lab only need to lose a couple more points and it’s a bloodbath. I can’t see GB as the man to bring them back, He is greyer and duller than John Major, and thats saying something!
“John McTernan, one of Labour’s senior advisers in Downing Street, will move to Scotland in January to co-ordinate the party’s campaign for next year’s Scottish parliamentary elections on May 3.” Jack McConnell is gonna just love that…
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/77264.html
Meanwhile, Labour suspend their council leader in scandal-plagued West Dunbartonshire:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1893332006
And senior Tory Lord Fraser is charged under Section 78 of the Air Navigation Order 2005, for an alleged offence on a flight from London to Dundee.
http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1893302006
4. Benn’s problem is that he looks like and sounds like his old man. This might be attractive for a certain section of the Labour party who yearn for the nationalised certainties of the Wilson era and are wistful about foggy marchs to Aldermaston in cheap raincoats. But there’s a bit too much negative brand equity for the much coveted floating voter.
HenryG (5) is right to report the concern that many within the party have about Gordon’s electability. A group of us were talking about this last night and all were gloomy about prospects for the party if Gordon does take over. The problem is that nobody can see how this can be stopped apart from massive calls from the grass-roots of the party as soon as Tony Blair resigns and the leadership election process is put in place. We, the small people of the party, need to do what Tom Watson did with Blair last September.
Incidentally I do not think Commentator is right about Reid. He has no chance in any circumstances. A Benn-Miliband leadership race would really galvanise the party.
Only illness can stop Brown but if that happened I agree that Reid would still stand no chance. The serious contenders would be Benn Milliband and Hain. My guess is that Milliband would probably get it particularly if the ‘event’ causing Brown not to stand delayed the election till late next year.
I wouldn’t rule him out for deputy despite his protestations.
You have to laugh don’t you. Milliband won’t be any good at winning elections because he does nto appear to me to have the charisma.
As for “Thatcherites” thinking global warming is a socialist plot, they can’t be Thatcherites as fighting global warming is a key tenent of Thatcherism, as in part pointed out by Tomothy at 1 above.
Brown’s behaviour with Blair and the “broken promise” would bode badly for the Labour Party if another leader was chosen - Heath’s great sulk would pale into insignificance. For Brownites it would be the equivalent of Thatchers overthrow and IMHO condemn Labour to years of infighting. Blair & Brown together have succeeeded to holding together the disparate elements and bonding a formidable party machine - with both ousted is there another leader today in the party who could do so?
I don’t agree History Boy. The only people I see who are fearful of Brown’s leadership are Tories.
If Brown didn’t stand then the field is likely to open up a lot. Brown’s biggest achievement so far is in attempting to create for himself a coronation rather than an election - an attempt that may yet be successful as contenders go for the deputy’s job. Take Brown out and people suddenly become more ambitious. But were Brown to be ruled out for whatever reason, the whole dynamic of the situation would be transformed, including from TB’s perspective.
Miliband’s main problem as a potential leader is that he’s very inexperienced. A very credible candidate were Labour in opposition, similar to Cameron or Blair, but not really tested enough to take on the prime ministership. The same criticism could be made of Benn as well - or indeed pretty much all the field given the power that Brown has accumulated. Those who’ve occupied senior positions are on the way out (Straw, Beckett, Prescott), or not particularly saleable (Reid) - one of the main reasons Brown is in the position he is. Were we to rule him out as well the contenders begin to look a bit lightweight.
Miliband could prove the tonic Labour needs, but equally could be a disaster: he’s untested under the spotlight. That at least is not a criticism that could be levelled at Reid who would be a safer choice in that respect, though would probably limit Labour’s potential support. The same could be said of Jack Straw although that’s about his only positive, given that he seems to have the leadership dynamism of John Major without the charm and looks to be doing his best to lose his seat by alienating half his constituency.
One final comment on the move in Miliband’s price. It’s a very thin market. The volume of the Betfair graph is denominated in fifties and there hasn’t been a hundred traded on him in their time units (are they days?) for months. When I looked before writing this, another six pounds would drop him to 19/1.
Were Brown to drop out, Miliband would certainly get a boost but it would be a brave punt for Labour to elect him and Labour’s been pretty averse to doing that in the past. In any case, the chances of Brown dropping out can’t be much less than Miliband’s price so if he won’t stand against Brown then he’d have to be a near certainty in a Brown-less field to be worth backing at this level. An interesting article as ever though, and a question well worth asking.
Re 10, The History Boy, Your problem with stopping Brown, which I agree would be good in some ways for you (and bad for us) is that it would lead to a long biiter sulk, with possible in fighting, making Ted Heath look happy about losing to Thatcher.
Interesting that the grass roots are talking about it though!
Forgot to mention in my previous post - Benn is responsible as International Development Secretary for saving starving African children; Miliband is trying to save the world from climate change. Reid is responsible for prison breakouts, police mess-ups and immigration; Brown is responsible for tax rises, pension deficits and endless regulation. Labour voters (and punters) might like to think about what Benn and Miliband would be like if presented with some of government’s less media friendly challenges.
15. Hmmm…can’t see spotty, geeky Milliband appealing much to traditional Labour voters, especially male ones. Which could be a serious problem given that the recent polls suggest the ‘core’ vote is the great bulk of what remains of Labour support.
Everyone seems to have forgotten Jack Straw, but it seems to me that he is overwhelmingly the most obvious fallback candidate if Gordon Brown were to be prevented from standing, although Margaret Beckett might also fancy her chances in those circumstances.
Both of these would have broader appeal within the Labour Party than Reid or Miliband, who rightly or wrongly would both be seen as Blairite continuity candidates.
One thing is absolutely certain - if the Brownites were somehow to be denied their champion, there is no way they are going to let Blair’s people have a walkover.
Hilary = son of Tony; David = son of Ralph. Lefty Dynasties Rule OK!
19. Hmmm so either Labour elects a likely loser or collapses into infighting…great news either way.
History Boy - you’re stuck with Brown as next leader (assuming Blair goes which is still not a certainty in my opinion). He’s the only Labour frontbencher with the ability and strength of character to lead Labour through what is going to be a difficult time. I think he’ll be a disaster but There Is No Alternative. Brown has succeeded in bloating the state by about 20% since 1997 and people are just beginning to notice - he’s a political animal in a way that Reid, Millibore and Benn can’t compete with. Prepare for a hung parliament and then 15 years in the wilderness.
Miliband is certainly talented and there is plenty I like about him ,however I’ve never been able to fully get past his’geeky’ image.
I think he needs a few more years at the top , theres something callow about him at the moment ,particularly his top lip which he often doesnt seem to have shaved.
I think the Miliband,Balls,Cooper,Purnell,Byrne axis and the 2005 lot that were implicated in the coup are both emerging factions that are worth watching .
The funny top lip worked for John Major!
23.”2005 lot that were implicated in the coup are both emerging factions that are worth watching ”
IIRC the “2005 intake” letter wasn’t send in the end, so not all signatures emerged. IIRC Helen Goodman was involved in it. And Lyn Brown too.
[10] History Boy wrote a Benn-Miliband leadership race would really galvanise the Labour party - well, maybe. And maybe it will even happen after the next election. I doubt it though - come the election after next Benn fils will be sixty.
With regard to the Deputies job -Why Benn ?
I’ve read that he’s been backed by no 10 in case Johnson fails , and can see that some may vote for him out of transference for his dad, Also that he may ‘unite’.
This narrative seems to largely float out of the media as a sort of recieved wisdom but as yet I can’t say ive really seen anything to actualy make me believe any of it. The interviews I’ve seen are profoundly dull and help dispel any notion that he is on the left of the party .
I dont see him as any different from Hain,Straw or Harman, whereas Cruddas,Johnson and Blears(if she enters) seem more substantial challengers
Which unions,media are backing him ?
Any thoughts on how deep ‘it has to be Benn’ is and what I am missing ?
This does seem a debate on a par with “what if Geoff Hurst’s second goal in 1966 hadn’t counted?”. Great fun but essentially frivolous. FWIW, I’d suggest Hain (who will escape from the NI shenanigans precisely because it’s in NI) is the only one with public recognition and credibility to emerge from the second tier. The idea of Mr Benn as PM is great for cartoonists, I’m sure - “as if by magic, a Prime Minister appeared” - but like Miliband(s) he is not in the public frame at all. In any event, if it’s Brown v DC, Labour won’t want it to be a beauty contest
“Hmmm so either Labour elects a likely loser or collapses into infighting…great news either way”
Interesting you should think that. I sometimes wonder whether in the event of an international ecconomic crisis the Great British public will opt for a globetrotting cycling tobogganist with a windmill on his roof and chauffeur driven shoes or whether they’ll opt for the most successful chancellor of the last fifty years. Tough choice
1, Yes who can forget Marx’s comment..’If they are Marx brothers then I’m not Groucho Marx….
14. Rogers Comedy Corner, a regular feature on PB.com. The Tory party read the polls and they suggest Brown is a weak link at this time.
More..encore!
Miliband has done the smart thing and tied his colours to Gordons mast early .I can only see him standing with GB and the Brownites endorsement.
29. So now Labour supporters are desperately hoping for an economic apocalypse to save their party from oblivion…what an interesting turnaround…
29. I think the biggest difficulty for Brown is that he’s not going to be seen as a change candidate since he’s co-author of New Labour. His record in the Treasury is strong and long, but I worry too many normal people associate any Chancellor with tax for it to be a huge asset.
Putting aside the mildly depressing thought that Brown’s best chances are if we suffer an international crisis, I agree with you about Cameron being perceived as too lightweight should Britain face tough times. But if it’s an economic crisis we face, I really can’t see how that’ll help GB. He really should have taken a different Cabinet portolio when he had the opportunity.
Milliband? LOL! How desperate are Labour getting?
The “boy wonder” will not win over either the intellectual vote or the working man’s vote. He has no gravitas at all. He’s a nice guy, and smart, and could well be PM material in 5 years (though there are several better prospects), but he has little charisma, seems odd and detached, and unable to make eye contact mnost of the time. (Slightly autistic perhaps, again?) He’s actually a lot like George Osbourne - with a better voice.
Brown may have all sorts or issues, but there is no way Milliband would be better than him in an election campaign. Hain would be a better bet (for Labour, maybe not for punters) in an election campaign than Milliband. Even Straw is more likely to hold up than Milliband, IMO.
28 “This does seem a debate on a par with “what if Geoff Hurst’s second goal in 1966 hadn’t counted?”.
That’s beautifully put, Laptop. But if you want a serious analysis that is full of characteristic common sense, go to David Herdson’s post at 15 above. He points out that if some extraordinary event ruled GB out, the whole field would be thrown open in a way which would make nonsense of all current speculation. One bloke who would suddenly become a live possibility, for example, would be Tony Blair! Would he really resign if GB suddenly became ‘unavailable’, for whatever reason?
I raise the point only to illustrate how right David H and Laptop are. It’s all a pleasant but rather irrelevant pub debate. Back in the real world, Gordon’s going to be next Prime Minister.
You can bet on it.
33- makes a change , its normally some of the con supporters on this site that try to convince us were all economically F****D if only we could see it
32. Yes that’s part of the attraction in speculatively backing him. He’s been the leading light in the ‘Blairites for Brown’ move at Westminster, and of course his brother Ed is a key Brownite player. A hell of a lot of ifs and buts, but you never know.
As other posters have pointed out, Brown’s success has been making it seem inevitable he will be the next leader (hence the crowded field for Deputy). Paradoxically, the more this is the case, the less attractive he could be to the British public, who’ll want to see him earning No. 10 fair and square.
29 - I’d put Ken Clarke ahead of Gordon - Ken inherited a mess and turned it round, made hard choices on tax and on spend. Brown inherited a healthy economy and while he hasn’t “turned it round” he has left his successors with severe problems. He’s just been prudent enough and deserves credit for maintaing the growth he inherited. On debit side his key programmes haven’t delivered what was promised. Today the Times reports youth unemployment higher than when Brown became Chancellor despite the New Deal, the poorest are still getting poorer (though he has delivered to those just below the poverty line have done better), NHS has more doctors & nurses, shorter waiting times but isn’t the success he’d hoped for, tax credits continue to be a misery for hundreds of thousands due to poor administration.
His weakness is that he looks to administrative centralised solutions - and the few rare glimpses of his first 100 days seem to be around constitutional and administrative changes which are a step up from the Citizens Charter and Cones Hotline but still reflect the paucity of real renewal in the late years of an administration.
[38] According to Henry G the British public want… to see (Brown) earning No. 10 fair and square - the record since WW2 of PMs taking over mid-term is: Eden, increased majority; Macmillan, ditto; Douglas-Home, lost narrowly; Callaghan, lost; Major, won from an almost hopeless position in polls on taking office. Don’t see much of a pattern there myself…
34.”But if it’s an economic crisis we face, I really can’t see how that’ll help GB. He really should have taken a different Cabinet portolio when he had the opportunity”
yes, but the other 2 big offices are Home Office and Foreign Secretary. As Home Office, he would have been trapped in the Home Office troubles and as For Sec in the Iraq War.
O/T Interesting expose of the BNP in the Guardian
Roger, go read the first article here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
and its links, then come and tell me how good Gordon is.
40. Yes, but I think the difference is that British politics is increasingly ‘presidential’ and Blair’s pledge to serve a full term. And at least Major faced a genuine contest.
42 - Good stuff , but these expose’s always make me wonder if there is anyone in the BNP who isnt an undercover journalist ?
Slightly but only slightly OT -Comment by Nick Palmer a couple of threads ago re sending Xmas cards - he apparently doesn’t even bother to send “you are 18 and now can have a say cards” to new voters on their birthdays. I have heard a number of young voters really impressed by these cards. In my council by election last year I had a number of people commenting on my “personal” “handwritten” letter. The labour party are in serious danger of believing that you win elections with a few tens of millions from rich supporters. You ignore your grassroots at your peril
I’m not sure whether you’re right or wrong Ted. But an extraordinarily large number of people-both supporters and opponents alike-believe Gordon has been a successful chancellor. After ten years in post this has to be major achievement and one I can’t remember happening over this sort of time. Even if he becomes PM it’ll be assumed that responsibility for the treasury’s success or failure will be his. And this is going to be the key to the next election.
43. Well I’m shocked! Shocked! Benedict thinks Labour isn’t working and the Conservative legacy is being thrown away.
(Interesting to see you have a blog!)
Roger - absolutely - I think the collapse of manufacturing - started by Thatcher and continued by Gordon is important. But no one seems to agree with me - if the bankers in the city take a few percent of ever deal done than apparently all will be well. What people don’t see is that these “bank charges” are paid by the rest of us.
Gordon has had an unprecedented run as Chancellor - he must get some credit for it, but as an ancient Greek I do believe the Gods will engineer the collapse of the economy to do for him in the end.
only thing about miliband is he needs to learn to shave properly. That schoolboyesque moustache thing on his upper lip just irritates me. does anyone think politics is being dumbed down?
43. Of course, Tory propaganda is totally neutral………..
47. God Roger I was only joking on the encore bit.
There’s a small matter of:
-A large war or or two which the government and not just Tony is associated with
-Crime
-Public service cuts, particularly in the NHS (whether thet are really cuts or not is irrevelant, many people perceive them as such)
-People being tired with Labour (Please note Tories in 97)
-The smell of arrogance & corruption (please note Tories in 97)
-Gordon Brown’s relatively poor public image (if we pay any heed at all to the polls).
These have also got to be dealt with on top of the economy. Gordon can’t pretend to be the architect of all these great things then wash his hands of the bits he thinks are vote losers and blame them on good old Tony. He’s going to try to but not everyone will go for it. What he gains on the left he may well lose in the centre.
49 ‘…But as an ancient Greek.’
Just how old you, Icarus?
47 - I’ll happily concede that Gordon Brown has been a reasonable Chancellor but I’m not sure whether there are any conclusion to be drawn from this regarding how he’ll perform as Prime Minister.
One lesson that I do draw, however, is that the government as a whole (any government actually) would function far better if cabinet ministers were able to spend a good few years in their jobs without being reshuffled every couple of years (or less).
I’ll even go so far as to say that cabinet ministers shouldn’t be reshuffled at all during the course of a parliament (unless there’s a death or a resignation).
4. The funny thing about income tax, the lower the rate, the more money the taxman gains.
50.”That schoolboyesque moustache thing on his upper lip just irritates me”
Caroline Flint has apparently the same problem
http://www.headsofgovernment.co.uk/images/hi-res/CarolineFlint.jpg
53. PtP. Younger than Jack, but older than Michael Meacher’s mother
56 Tut, tut, Andrea…not nice.
57 That’s not giving much away, Icarus. Methusalah is younger than Jack.
Anyway, I’m pleased to learn that the accident with the wax and the heat from the sun wasn’t fatal, as so many people supposed.
50- when polls can show that the party with no NHS policies is the most trusted on the NHS, then these things matter.
Witness the alternating hair choices of Russian Leaders since Lenin for further confirmation ( betting tip -the next Russian premier will not be bald )
58. They should sue the photographer…she’s not the only MP who didn’t come off well from that photoshots
RE 45, Crossland, Nick Griffin, he’s a government agent keeping an eye on it
RE 48, Roger
59 - wax, heat from the sun ….I think weve found the answer to Miliband and Flint’s problems !
62/45 It was bit brutal IMO that “celeb” members have been “outed”. Up to them what party they support, even if it’s the BNP and they live in Buck Palace.
Not sure that it is entirely legal.
42. BNP are racist thugs? I’m sure no one had the least inkling that was the case. Thank goodness for investigative journalists for bringing these startling revelations to us day after day.
54. “whether there are any conclusion to be drawn from this regarding how he’ll perform as Prime Minister.”
Yes, this is one thing I’m picking up, people who think Brown has been a good chancellor don’t want Gordon to represent them on the world stage. Political observers may believe the jon is just ‘one rung’ up the ladder, but in the minds of many I know the PM’s job is million miles away from that of Chancellor. Gordon doesn’t have what Mandleson once called ‘box office’ appeal. I’m sure that a lot of all this is slightly irrational, down to his Scottishness etc. but it did for Kinnock and people should take heed.
About 3,600 years actually but when I joined the Liberal party we had only 6 MPs. Take the long view.
The point about Icarus is that he wouldn’t listen to good advice, and still doesn’t!
47 In the end, the achievements of a long-lived Government become taken for granted, and only their failures are remembered.
C.f. the Tories in 97, who clearly had changed Britain with some success in their 18 years of power. By 97, their achievements counted for little.
The problem Brown faces is that a generation has grown up which takes low interest rates or economic stability as the natural order of things.
RE 69. That’s a good point - people just take economic prosperity for granted.
In last week’s Populus poll only 25% of respondents agreed with the statement Britain ’s economy is doing well - largely because of Gordon Brown’s policies & decisions
This compared with 26% who agreed Britain ’s economy is doing well & that is not much to do with Gordon Brown’s policies & decisions
And 22% who agreed Britain ’s economy is not doing well - largely because of Gordon Brown’s policies & decisions
70 Absolutely, Mike. And can you imagine what the responses would have been if the name Tony Blair had been substituted for Gordon Brown?
As regular readers will know, I have been consistently critical of the PM’s Atlanticist policies but even I have to acknowledge that it is far from clear that our *economic* prosperity would have been greater had he chosen a different course.
RE 70, The issue Mike, is that some people are feeling more prosperous under Labour whilst quite a few are not for one reason or another.
Quite a few are feeling less well off are would be core Labour supporters as well.
Are there only two members of the labour party or unions on this site!! If so get your votes in, a straw in the wind would be good.
73. red flag, I think we are in a distinct minority here!
Off Topic, but hey it’s open season for Gordon bashing
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/…2513498,00.html
The Times December 21, 2006
Chancellor accused of burying bad news
Gabriel Rozenberg, Economics Reporter
Gordon Brown was accused of using a “take out the trash day” to bury bad news after the emergence of a string of unflattering reports.
On the day that the IMF warned the Chancellor that further tax rises could hit business investment and incentives for work, and the Office for National Statistics recorded the Treasury’s second-biggest monthly borrowing deficit, the Conservatives said yesterday that the Chancellor had sneaked out a further six critical reports to avoid bad headlines…./
he reports were published on a busy day for market watchers. In addition to the public finances report, the day saw the publication of figures for business investment, mortgage and lending data, retail sales, and the minutes of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, as well as a set-piece speech by Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England.
George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, said: “Gordon Brown is using the classic spin-doctor’s technique of trying to bury all the bad news on one day, just before Christmas.
“On the day of poor public finance figures, he has released six pieces of bad news, including a damning report by his own task force on energy efficiency, a review of the Treasury’s own performance, which shows it failing on key measures, and the HMRC annual report into the chaotic tax credits system. No wonder Gordon Brown has inherited from Tony Blair the title ‘King of Spin’.”
Not long now before all the poisins lying in the mud begin to hatch out.
With low mortgage rates,council workers (of whom I am one) having recovered the ground we lost on the private sector,I am a satis-fied Labour voter-oh,I am a member of UNISON too
I’ve long been of the opinion that if it is not to be Brown, who is the best pick of his generation of politicians, then the Labour Party would do best to pick someone younger who could best repesent renewel in office and dash cameron’s hopes of coming over all fresh faced and innocent.
Out of this it has got to be Milliband as Alexander hasn’t quite cut his teeth. It seems a shame that many of Labour’s promise is still on the back benches (Cooper etc) when they would have provided a much sterner case for skipping a generation if they had a few years cabinet experience. I think Blair has kept people like Beckett, Straw in the cabinet too long.
The “Feel Good Factor” is elusive at the moment. Not sure that it’s all down to the economic fundamentals though, which aren’t too bad.
Is it not the case that other factors such as terror and the return of Take That
are having a strong effect on morale.
Anyone else feel that the state of the economy is hard to fathom at the moment. The figures are pretty good, but …
42 and 66 The interesting thing about the article was that the journalist *wasn’t* able to find much evidence of racism and thuggery. It does confirm what some recent by-elections have shown - that the BNP can attract middle class support.
The impression is of a party run almost like the CPGB used to be.
The big difference with the deputy job this time is that Prescott was never in a month of Sundays ever going to use it as a step up to No.10, however things will be much different with a Brown who is not older older but less likely to win the next GE.
When you look at the likely candidates in that light some of them look a lot less appealing than others.
If Labour lose the next GE there will be calls for Brown to go. If his deputy has done a fair job then it will be a shoe in.
Yvette Cooper is not on the backbenches - she’s a minister of state at Communities and Local Government. You’re right though - she’s very good and is a lot better with people and the media than hubby. Her lack of promotion seems to be down to her allegiance to Brown.
I think if Brown does become PM he really needs to reach across the party for the best, regardless of which grouping they are in. We simply cannot afford to do otherwise. Previous PM’s brought in huge talents from across the spectrum and kept the show on the road - that’s why I really beleive Wilson is so underrated.
GDP growth for 2007 should be solid -2.75-3%
The Bank Of England base rate will go up by 0.25% in c,February,and as RPI infaaltion (as opposed to the harmonised rate headlined) is,in my opinion,to high,one more rate rise may well occur later in the spring.
Unemployment should gently start to nudge downwards,the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement is gradually falling as a percentage of GDP-so overall,I would state the economy is set pretty fair for 2007
You make me laugh Yokel but only an Irish Tory political pundit would talk about NHS cuts when everyone knows they’ve spent double. And what’s more those of us who have used the service recently will testify what an outstanding service it is becomming. And like all things spread by word of mouth it takes a while for this kind of news to spread……
And what about the bombs despatched by your countrymen-and even I managed to hear two-isn’t their silence a success of sorts?
If Milliband did look like a real possibility, who here would like to club together to get him a little “present” from Russia - I was thinking some polonium!
81. And of course this all stems down from the fact that Blairism is a very, very narrow sect in the PLP.
78 The economy isn’t that hard to fathom, Jonathan. On most normal measures - inflation, growth, interest rates, employment, stock market etc - it’s doing OK. Rightly or wrongly, GB gets some of the credit for this.
It’s looking unlikely that the economy will be blown seriously off course over the next couple of years, so Labour should be able to claim hey have managed it successfully. It may not save them, but it should prevent meltdown.
50. Are you suggesting he’s got a bum fluff tache?
54. I’d agree on cabinet ministers, they do need a bit more time to put the hand on the tiller to direct.
RE 82, Patrick, according to one report in the TImes, borrowing figures are up again!
RE 83, Roger, there always seems to be the view amongst the party faithful that the NHS was in a shocking state in 1997 and is now so much better. Waiting lists were longer but declining in 1997, and furthermore whilst the spending has doubled, people look at taht and wonder why local services are closing down. That makes the spending figures look bad not good.
69. 78. etc.
There may be something in the idea that the voters are setting the bar higher in terms of what they consider ‘good’ economic performance. All the three main consumer confidence indices (Gfk, Nationwide and MORI) are fairly depressed at present, despite what appears to be a reasonable growth picture.
If you dig into the GDP stats a bit more though, you will find that real disposable income is only growing at around 1.5% annually. This is historically rather low, with the average growth rate from 1989-2005 double that. This average growth rate probably masks some big differences among social groups too, as Benedict suggests. Quite a large proportion of the population - possibly even the majority - are experiencing stagnant or even falling real incomes.
83. Roger the NHS is really patchy. Things have improved overall, but are still quite poor in certain regions, such as the South East. There is an appalling lack of financial discipline among many trusts and staff as well as patients are feeling the pinch. This is one of the weaknesses in devolving power to professionals or outsourcing to the private sector - Governments are often still seen as reponsible, even when they have limited control on matters.
84. Nice one Raj, nothing like an assasination threat to win the argument.
Why the talk of meltdown- the right-wing on this site,in my humble opinion,are over-reacting hugely if they think the pendulum has swung that far.
I would state that for a 9 1/2 year old government,who has been through huge international controversies over Iraq,the fact that on average the main opposition party is a few points ahead suggests the centre-right of UK politics faces a long road back to government yet
84. not really that is just a bit weird…however, i might buy him a Gilette fusion (it has 5 blades! did you hear that 5….i cant wait til they bring out a razor with 6blades thats what i could really do with) and maybe some king of shaves shaving gel.
87. if you look at my post 92. I think that is in fact what i may well if the time is right been shown to be indicating
The economy isn’t in a terrible state. However, no-one under the age of 30 can afford a house or a pension, and, away from the top 10th percentile, private sector wages are static and gradually being eroded by inflation. People aren’t being knocked away by foul economic winds, but there’s precious little to actually feel *good* about economically.
91. I’m not at all right wing and I’m pretty gloomy at the moment. Maybe I’ll cheer up over Christmas.
95. HenryG, you can be left wing! The hard left usually think you’re in danger of an economical meltdown and you just need them to save UK economy
91 Sorry, Patrick, I didn’t intend to imply that meltdown was likely at the next GE (although I wouldn’t be so sure about next May). I don’t think it is. I’m not sure who will win. At the moment my money’s on an HP. But unless there is a serious economic crisis, I don’t foresee a disaster for Labour. They could even win.
All to play for, IMO.
86 I agree, the figures look good, we generally take them for granted. The signs “on the street” are quite good - the queues into the shops look pretty long - from my point of view.
I buy that the headline figures hide alot of variety. Some people are doing very very well and others are not.
Perhaps also there is a natural pessimism or boredom about. Things are good, but not great and as such there must be a recession around the corner. There has been a recession around the corner for at least 8 years now.
Something in the British psyche perhaps. If you not going forward at a rapid pace you must be going backward. It’s a bit like the ashes or the Rugby - massive triumph , followed by a crisis all inflamed by the media. We just can’t do nice steady progress like the Aussies.
Sorry this is so wooly, but I want to get to the bottom of this.
PS. Perhaps some people like the excitement of “Tory Boom and Bust.
Jimbo - from a position of grumpy irritation about the razor blade arms race, I’m now starting to enjoy it. I’m sure we’ll see a six bladed razor by the end of 2007.
Recently bought my first three-bladed razor (due largely to a terrible lack of razor blades in Beeston’s Sainsburys - it’s no wonder they’re losing the supermarket wars if that’s their attitude to supply chain management etc. [descends into well-rehearsed tirade]) - can’t deny it provided a better shave but still feel a bit foolish using it.
97,I would tend to agree on HP,although obviously this has several possible permutations:
(a)Labour only shy by say > 10 seats
(b) A truly ‘hung parlaiment’,rather like Feb.1974,where even the co-operation og the Welsh,Scots Natsd and the Ulster Mps would not raech the majority hurdle
Election night next time could be a classic-I’ll be stocked up cigars and real ale!
102 Will need a mobile/wap version of pb.com then!
92. faces are not big enough for 5 blades never mind 6………..
I remember ‘green’ Maggie: she hated trains, loved opening new motorways, thought if you were still on the bus at 30 you were a failure. The only thing green, Thatcherites liked, was the complexion of your neighbour when you drove up to your front door in your spanking new, gas guzzler!
Brown screwed up pensions, that’s lost a whole raft of voters in particular age ranges. My parents are just one example of those who have stopped (or will stop) voting labour. My mother didn’t in 2005 and my Father has vowed not to vote for Brown in the future.
Labour has become known as a party for ‘working families’, if you’re not one of those then you don’t count.
102. I wonder if you could have pb.com on a big screen?! With voice recognition technology we could easily choose someone famous’ voice to read out our posts to the audience of cigar chompers. Put me down for Roger Moore.
106. Actually Paul Newman might be better.
106/07
I’d like to be Daniel O’Donnell please just to annoy the hell out of everybody (even more).
104 - I think the ‘a man on a bus after the age of 30 can consider himself a failure’ quote is a bit of an urban myth. It’s so widely believed that you’ll find hundreds of references to it, but I’m not 100% convinced it was ever actually said. Happy to be proved wrong though. Maybe the idea that it’s an urban myth is itself an urban myth…
106 Henry G, if I can’t have mine read out by John McCririck, I’m not posting!
Re 99, Jonathan, It’s not Tory boom and bust, it is every party’s boom and bust untill Ken Clarke put the economy on a stable footing. Admitidly Gordon has not had a car crash yet, but there are structural problems looming.
105 UK Paul - “Brown screwed up pensions.”
It’s a widely held belief but how many share my view that a greater responsibility lies with the pensions industry?
109 Cookie, it’s also out of date, at least as far as London is concerned. Since the Congestion Charge was introduced, buses have become very popular with the professional classes.
Manchester, too, despite the bus wars (and the occassionally extortionate prices…)
The best performing segments of our economy in percentage terms are:
1. Personal Debt (almost 1.4 trillion).
2. Repossessions (up 76% YoY).
3. Unemployment (worst since 1997).
4. Shrinking Manufacturing (below 25% for the first time).
5. M4 (up 25% YoY).
6. Bankruptcy.
7. Record taxation.
8. Record public borrowing.
9. Most overvalued currency
10. More credit card debt than all EU countries combined.
Brown’s accomplishments.
105 - In the end, who did it doesn’t matter, it’s what people believe that counts. Same as with Mrs Thatcher and the bus comment, once people stop believing you and start believing your enemies you’re in trouble.
42. A pro-BNP article in the Guardian?
What next - The Daily Mail espousing the virtues of Marxism?
BB
100, 103. I think you need to update to the pulsing or vibrating razor blades, as the adverts show it is obviously the only way to get a clean shave and also to get a tasty woman to walk in the bathroom after you and stroke your smooth, clean skin as a Eurofighter swoops past your window.
111 Not sure I by this St Ken saviour of the economy stuff. Surely the truth is for the four years after the 92 debacle the only way was up.
A much more difficult job was to sustain this for a further nine years! I have little doubt in my own mind, that if the Torys had flucked it in ‘97, they would have overreacted to each macroeconomic news story fiddled with interest rates and caused a recession.
Anyway, couldn’t give a stuff about 92-97 or 97-06. Much more interested in 07-12! Haven’t heard all that much on the matter from either party as it happens.
115 Aren’t you a happy fellow! Re (9) Are you proposing we devalue Sterling? A bold political move I reckon! Clear blue water!
112 Well me for one! The personal pension provision in the UK is still excellent, despite the fluctuating markets and fluctuating application of taxation. If anyone is to blame for the parlous state of personal pensions, then it is the pensioners themselves! They will insist on living to a ripe old age. Back in the late 1950’s, the Post Office Pension Fund expected its pensioners to retire at 65 and be dead by 68. Nowadays they retire at 60 and live into their eighties. Have a look at the size of the BT Pension Fund (a successor to the old Post Office fund)and compare it to the market capitalisation of BT itself; sorry, I do not have the figures to hand but the former dwarfs the latter, but is still regarded as being a bit underfunded.
Re 118, Jimbo Jones, thats why I don’t use them, there is not enough room between my bathroom window and the neighbours house for a eurofighter to fit with out crashing.
90 - HenryG - do you have any evidence of the “appalling lack of financial disipline in many Trusts”. A few perhaps, even some Trusts, but from the position of this senior NHS manager, certainly not many.
My Trust is a £180m Trust with c5000 staff. We faced an opening deficit this year of c£10m, primarily because a number of cost-pressure (predominantly linked to the new consultants contract and Agenda for Change (the paydeal for all non-medical NHS Staff)) was significantly under-resourced. Despite for a long time being one of the most cost-effective and efficient Trusts within my part of the UK, we still managed to pull another £6m out of our costs this year - with significant difficulty. The prospect next year is a potential deficit in the £10-20m range - quite impossible.
The difficulty lies not in the calibre of financial management within “many” Trusts. It lies with a government that under-resources the impact of new health technologies & drugs, increases the number of targets year on year, and requires us to balance income & expenditure on an annual basis (that really does for mature financial planning and risk-taking by Trusts!). The government seems incapable of taking the difficult political decisions (or allowing us to) that such a financial scenario dictates. Combine that with with an immature commissioning framework, that demands that we balance the books in year, that we deliver contracted activity levels (even when we have run out of referrals to treat!) and that we maintain quality levels, and I challenge anyone who thinks they could manage that scenario financially to step up to the plate.
My point is, that is is an easy and cheap jibe to lay the problems at the feet of “appalling financial management in many Trusts”, when the reality is that most Trusts would dearly love the simplicity of the private sector - managing to a bottom line/market share over more than a 12 month horizon, without the incessant stream of political interference and dictat from Whitehall.
119 ‘St Ken’ has at least one major decision to his eternal credit, Jonathan. He refused to subvert a healthy economy by bribing the electorate in 97. He said at the time that it would have been wrong in principle and wouldn’t have worked anyway. I’m not so sure about the latter and I am pretty sure other Chancellors would have tried it, given the same circumstances. Personally I suspect his basic decency played a big part.
He was always one of my favorite politicians, even before that, so naturally I admired him even more afterwards.
122. Benedict, if i was a betting man, i would say you are a Braun Contour series 5875 type of guy.
121. Yes - how dare those pesky pensioners live longer, draining the resources of the rest of us? There should be compulsory euthanasia at 65, with each liquidated pensioner replaced by a highly productive Romanian immigrant, or better still by two. How about that for a bold policy idea with which Nu Labour can recapture public support?
123. My wife is a doctor at a district general and I work in the private sector with a number of NHS projects spanning a number of Trusts. I am routinely amazed at the lack of budgetary control in the NHS compared to other public sector bodies. I’m actually quite alarmed by your reference of the ‘bottom line’ and ‘market share’. Where do you work, so I know where not to get ill.
Hmmm. Miliband. I’m a fan of him personally, but I have a sneaking feeling he’ll never be Labour leader.
Partly this is just a sense that he’s just not that party political. He’s what the americans call a goo-goo. he believe in that mythical beast good government. He’s not a street fighter, never had to fight a nasty political battle and doesn’t seem to want to. He’d be a great PM in a hung parliament, with that consensual style, but we ain’t like that. Who are the Milbandista who will go to the wall for him. (ironically, I’m one of those who’d like to be one, but he’s not building any operation that I can see. He should be.)
More objectively, he’s not going to succeed Blair, will get a senior job with Brown, and therefore if
a) Brown wins the next election-
He’ll serve in a senior job for five-ish years and will only be a candidate for leader if labour lose the 2013/14 election, by which time he’ll be too closely linked with the “losing” leadership and other figures will have emerged. I’m thinking the likes of Purnell, Cruddas, Burnham and Balls (assuming he goes back to being a careerist after losing the dep leadership election). If Labour do really badly in 2013/14 (a la 97), labour could easily choose a hague figure.
b) Hung parliament- Brown might well stay on as PM of a LD coalition, or might decide to stay on as leader while the Tory/LD coalition stumble and hope to win the re-run. If he does go, Miliband is a good possible leader, but might be thought a bit green by the party, who might well prefer a more experienced/tougher figure in that situation. Alan Johnson might wel have a shot.
c) Tory win. Milibands best shot, but as many of us have said, electorally a more unlikely option than a) or b)
the parenthetical possible careerist in the above post is Cruddas, not Balls- just for the avoidance of doubt.
[89] Fred wrote quite a large proportion of the population - possibly even the majority - are experiencing stagnant or even falling real incomes.
I’ll take your word for it - part of the reason may be that it is ageing, it’s very difficult for a pensioner to have real income growth (although, unlike younger people with mortgages to feed, they may not see higher interest rates as bad news since typically they have little or no debt).
What might be interesting would be any information on regional income growth (compared to regional house price growth while we’re at it).
Again, there’s a serious point at bottom in [121] - a lot of economic growth in the last ten years has gone to fund an increasing “dependency rate”, i.e. the proportion of workers to population has declined (I think - no doubt I’ll be put right if needs be).
the management of cod stocks in the North Sea is a good example of the EU not working - good intentions but hopelesss implementation
121 Augustus
There is in fact much truth in your ironic remark about the longevity of pensioners. Part of the ‘problem’ is indeed increased life expectancy. That is of course a jolly good thing, especially as the elderly are these days a good deal fitter and healthier than once was the case and they can therefore actually enjoy those extra years.
The downside is that pension provisions, made on assumptions that were perfectly reasonable at the time, are now insufficient.
You solve one problem, another takes its place. That’s life - not a cause for regret.
131 So, David, do you give up on the EU or improve implementation?
129. If Cruddas was such a careerist Brit Spin, how come he turned down the offer of a ministerial job in return for backing the Education Bill he was rebelling over?
Agree with you about David Miliband not being a street fighter and not building a power base. His rapid rise causes some resentment on the backbenches and he doesn’t know his way to the tea room. That said, he’s utterly genuine, engaging, thoughtful and our first intellectual of note since Tony Crosland.
121 -”replaced by a highly productive Romanian immigrant, or better still by two”
Is that Lembit’s policy?
edit above - I meant 126
135 Cheeky!
133. The problem with the Common Fisheries Policy is not really implementation, though there are serious issues with that. The fundamental basis of the CFP is wholly flawed and at variance with best practice as seen in e.g. the Norwegian and Icelandic approaches to fish stock management.
Excellent thread Mike. Full of humour. Milliband is slightly less likely to ever become PM than is Eric Pickles. To any normal ordinary person (politics geeks excepted) he is just a very boring ‘Cheeky Boy’.
105,
If labour are known as a party for helping working families, seems a good position to me.
Don`t believe the comment others d`ont count.
However if they upset a few teachers along the way, they must be doing something right, as they could work a bit more, and have less holidays.
139. I would add that when he appeared on Newsnight he got hissed at pretty badly for his NuLab speak. I do not think he is populist enough to be PM.
I like his ideas though - devolving more power from centre and giving people more of a say in how their lives are run, just not convinced he will do what he says. I think its that moustache that leaves me unconvinced….if a man can not shave his face properly how on earth can be trusted to run the country properly http://sjhoward.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2006/06/miliband.JPG
141 LOL Jimbo! That reminds me of the best reason I ever heard for not voting for somebody. “Can’t vote for Kinnock, he’s got red hair. You couldn’t send him abroad; he’d get sunburn on the top of his head.”
Honestly, it was said in all seriousness!
141.
“devolving more power from centre and giving people more of a say in how their lives are run”
Hands up anyone who believes ANY nulabour tosh on this. OK sharia lawyer, now chop off all those lying thieving hands.
128.” I’m thinking the likes of Purnell, Cruddas, Burnham and Balls”
What about Yevette Cooper and Dougie Alexander (ok, he’s Scottish and it would be 2 Scot leaders in a row)?
142.
pp He behaved as though he had perpetual heat stroke wherever he was. ALLLL RRRIIIGHT!
144. Yvette Cooper is a bit too combative for my liking. she cant open her mouth about any issue without calling the other side a bunch of *%$£!. very yah boo and i don’t like the way her debates work out because of it. would be a good cabinet member though for Lab.
142, 145….so looks like Hague as shadow foreign sec might’ve been an error