And now the winners of our competitions….
December 26th, 2006
PBC’s first ever poster and David R get the prizes
The first person ever to post a comment on PBC, Tim Hill (AKA Big Tall Tim) and David R are the winners of our two outstanding competitions - on the US Mid Terms and the “2006 Prediction Contest“. Tim, whose first post from March 29th 2004 is reproduced above, is a close friend and is a former PPC and Councillor for the Lib Dems in Bedfordshire.
These were the top results:-
Big Tall Tim
Barnesian
peter the punter
rej4sl
Liberal Neil
Arb Seeker
Alex
Mark Senior
fitaloon
Vino
JulianH
Tim won on the tie-breaker on Joe Lieberman’s performance. We done to everybody. A full list of how everybody did is available to download here - Mid-Terms Competition1.xls
The top entries in the “Predicting 2006 Contest” are:-
1 David R 533
2 Stephen Thomas 531
3 Max 525
4 Chris Took 523
5 Russell 522
6 Anatole 511
7 Norfolk Yokel 504
8 aschamberlain 502
9 Hagmark 486
10 Julian H 485
A full list of entries and scores is available to download here - Pb.com 2006 competition1.xls
The winners get a copy of my book on politics and betting that is due to be published during 2007. Thanks to Paul Maggs who, yet again, has done a brilliant job managing the entries and producing the result spreadsheets.
Tomorrow I am going away for a few days and have prepared four articles linked to the 2007 Prediction Competition which will be posted on New Year’s Eve. The plan is that these will provoke discussion ahead of the entry thread next Sunday. Part 1 tomorrow is on the “Lib Dems in 2007.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
The Prime Minister’s plan for “people’s panels”, essentially focus groups paid for by the government rather than the party, beggars belief. You’d have thought polling-led policy development had got us into a big enough mess already.
The genius of New Labour was to recognise the Conservatives were often right about the concerns of ordinary voters: crime (often low-level), education and so on. The tragedy was the conviction that Tory solutions which had failed under Conservative governments would work for Labour. They didn’t.
The party as a policy development engine is long since ignored. Cabinet government is the sign of a weak leader. Civil servants are scorned; experts are ridiculed. Instead, we’ve had a decade of wheezes from oh-so-clever policy wonks and press officers.
We do not try to cure cancer by roping in two dozen old darlings off the street and asking them to design new drugs one afternoon. We will not lower crime like that either.
New Labour doesn’t care about what works. All they care about is winning elections. Thus they favour any techniques which will allow them to go to the country with the following simple message:
“You (the people) wanted this. We (New Labour) gave you it. It’s not our fault it didn’t work. Vote for the party who give you what you want”.
A little Cruddas/Blears “disagreement”:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/6209399.stm
btw, congratulations to the winners of the competition
Well done Roger, ‘reverse indicator of the year’.
2 Didn’t quite work that way on Iraq though, did it Alex?
“You (the people) did not want this. We (New Labour) said ‘Trust us: we know what we’re doing’. It’s our fault it’s turned out so badly. Vote for the Party which ignored you and got it wrong.”
Hmmm. Think not.
Through clenched teeth I congratulate Big Tall Tim and Barnesian who finished just ahead of me in the Mid-Term comp. I was hoping to use Mike’s book as belated Christmas presents. Now I’ll have to go out and buy one.
Despite the closeness of the result I will accept it graciously and not put the organisers to more expense and trouble by demanding a recount.
Wag 5. I think that this is a bit unfair on Roger - though one of the dangers of making all the results available online is that it is not only the winners that we highlight. I’ve just worked out how to make Excel files available like this which is the only reason we are doing it now.
It should be recalled that Roger won our “What will follow ‘Hug a Hoodie?’ contest in the summer with “Give a Gyp a Kip”. It’s amazing to think that if somebody then had entered “The Tories praising Polly Toynbee” we would have dismissed it out of hand.
re 7. Well done PtP in the Mid-Terms - you were spot on with the numbers and your entry was only let down by the Lieberman tie-breaker.
8. “Unfair on Roger…” How is this possible?
And don’t try to smooth-talk me, Mike, or I might just turn my lawyers loose on you.
6,7 — is there a progress report on the book?
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Roger coming last is quite fitting!
1: Agree - it is a publicity gimick to pretend that Labour is reconnecting with people. Who would have thought that a government driven by focus groups would invent new focus groups to drive policy. Gosh.
Well done winners. And lay off Roger!
O/T Stop Press - King George at Kempton
Look, I know I have lost plenty opposing Kauto Star but I am hearing strong messages for Monet’s Garden and am taking a chance on him myself - each way at 5-1. There’s certainly some value there so you might like to think about it.
Cheers
So close and yet so far! Well done to David R and Stephen Thomas. And despite the close result I won’t be asking for a recount. Well done to Julian too who seems to be the only person in each top 10.
Not sure what I was thinking when I predicted Ed Davey to be leading the LD’s on Christmas Day 2006 should be in with a chance for 2007 though!
1&13 - You are far too cynical. There is no doubt in my mind that the ‘people’s panels’ will be just as successful as the ‘Big Conversation’. To think it was ever mocked by Labour’s opponents.
15.”Not sure what I was thinking when I predicted Ed Davey to be leading the LD’s on Christmas Day 2006 should be in with a chance for 2007 though!”
well, at least you haven’t predicted Mark O as future leader
(I predicted Davey too…not sure why)
Anyway during the festive season there has been a new episode of Cheecky Lembit saga:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=424562&in_page_id=1770
This episode involves Melissa, her breasts and Stifyn, the gay friend.
13. Lay off Roger??
For so long PBs own ZanuNuLab playground bully. Now Tony Blair’s last faithfull SS Bodyguard. Fighting to the last bullet for the Fuhrer.
But lets not be too harsh on him. There is clearly a reason why he does what he does. Perhaps he has no personal life and a life in the Labour party offered him friends, comradeship and a sense of belonging…
11,As a resident of Bournemouth Borough Council,dutifully paying my council tax on my Band D property,I feel I could be forgiven for feeling irritation at those who do pull their weight-i.e pay- why should others carry free-loaders??!!
(Whoops,18 should have read ‘those who do NOT pull their weight’ :lol:)
14, Kauto Star is weaker over 3 than two and I’m still not convinced about his big win at 3 not so long ago.
Logically, therefore, its worth going against him and I looked closely this morning. Racing Demon looks interesting, on the upgrade and probably suited to the step up to 3 for the first time in a while. My only concerns is that he is stepping up to this quality over fences for the first time so its a challenge and he might not quite make it. Psychologically, I also have this desire in the back of my mind for Kauto Star to win so I can make hay on his almost certain failure at Cheltenham in March. I have little doubt if Racing Demon was beaten by Kauto Star today that he’d reverse the places readily come March.
As regards Monet’s Garden, he deserves his main challenger status in the market and it wouldn’t susprise me at all if he won. An E/W bet though Peter, does that suggest your confidence is a little shaky?
Cheesed off over Straw Bear, I could have done with him winning that. He’s another one that I don’t believe would have won in March but I want as many apparent challengers to Detroit City as I can in the market.
20. Oops…another ‘bunch of fives’ in order?
21. Not at all….well maybe after a few drinks! All such blown money will be returned in March at Cheltenham.
Well done on the organisers and winners of the competitions! Predicting Blair out and Kennedy to stay kind of scuppered my chances but I’ve learnt a lot this year and plan to do better next time.
Hope you’ve all had a good Christmas.
I only knew Blunkett was doomed the second time when The Excellent Roger pronounced that Blunkett would survive. He’s pretty much consistently wrong about everything.
24. Indeed…which makes him an excellent betting guide.
Like you, TPFKAR, I was scuppered by thinking that Blair would be forced out and that Kennedy would fight his corner and make a come-back as Lib Demn leader. But I also thought that the Tories would do horribly well under their new young leader, but alas! (from the point of view of this competition) the Tory performance turned out to be decidedly mediocre and so I ended up with the wooden spoon (third class).
You just can´t rely on the Tories for anything, can you?
Better luck with your judgements next year….
Hearty congratulations to my fellow winners and patronising commiserations to all those with inferior prediction-making skills (especially Andrea).
I now depart unto a public house to have a celebratory ale and will return hopefully with a less smug disposition.
Just heard this good joke which has made me chuckle about a big movie on the shortage of fizzy drinks in France. The film title:- “The Last Tango in Paris”.
28 - Groan… did it come out of a cracker?
Fourth place, whopeee! It’s like a late Christmas present! After coming last in family Trivial Pursuit and last in Absolute Balderdash I’m rather chuffed with fourth place.
Cracker joke, what did the beaver say to the tree? Nice gnawing you.
22 Yokel
Kauto Star is proving to be expensive for me!
I don’t regret today’s bet though. At those odds he had to be opposed and he didn’t half clout a couple of those fences. Like you, I would oppose him relentlessly for the Gold Cup. You can do so now at a ridiculous 3.05. He may not even run in it. Never mind about injuries; Paul Nicholls has already indicated that if it comes up soft, he might go for the Champion Chase instead. I reckon he’d have more chance in that, whatever the conditions. As you know, 3m2f round Cheltenham is a lot longer than 3m round Kempton and KS is simply not proven over such a stamina test.
Looks like the lay of the year to me.
What about a competition to guess where the next Parliamentary byelection will be held?
32 - Rather morbid, isn’t it?
No byelections can also be caused by resignations.
34 - In that case, I predict Sedgefield and Hull East.
31, I’d agree with you, just felt maybe you were taking a chance because you saw the possibility but you were a bit shaky on it confidence-wise. The only reason i didnt go against him today was that my choice, Racing Demon I felt was just going to find it a little too hot at his first attempt at this quality over 3 miles. Come March h,owever, different story. I’m really disappointed by War of Attrition so far, Down Royal aside, where I didnt expect him to win. I thought he was a certain winner at Cheltenham in 2006 and he didnt let me down and I thought he could repeat in 2007 and I still think he can if he gets his act together.
34,35 - I’d go Hull East rather than Sedgefield. Blair can’t kick HIMSELF up to the Lords, but he can send Prezza.
You said that with a straight face, AH Matlock!
How about Witney?
38 - I should think that Fife North East is rather more likely that Witney, for either of the two main causes of by-elections.
39 - rather more likely *than* Witney, rather.
I had no idea I was doing so well. I’m amazed. Congrats to the winners.
No, I would have thought that resignation because of despair with the resistent activists was more likely in the case of Witney.
Have you not seen Ming´s New Year message?
http://www.libdemvoice.org/
Very upbeat, and starting to counter-attack on traditional Tory territory.
Health is a permanent problem for all of us, AH Matlock. Sadly, it seems to me that Cameron, for his age, is grossly overweight. I wish no ill to either of them.
42 - I see Christmas hasn’t brightened your disposition any, Sage. Health is indeed a problem for us all, but it rather stretches credulity to say that Cameron is ‘grossly overweight’. If that is your ‘professional’ opinion, then I certainly would not want you for a physician.
I am not a professional physician, Alastair, but one of the victims of that profession. Having seen photographs of a semi-nude Cameron, back in the summer, I think he is in a far worse state then I am!
44 - Really? What do you make of Ming then? Something must surely be wrong with him. He’s only 65 but by looks he’s going on 90.
42/44. Hey Sage, too much brandy?
Cameron grossly overweight? Two pounds lighter and you would be calling him skinny.
The man is PERFECT in every way and you just can’t hack it!!!
Ming’s new year message very upbeat? So was Charles Kennedy’s last year!!! ho ho ho.
But I must say, Alastair, that I feel very let down by all you Tory chaps. I read all that you had to say about Cameron and how marvellous he was - and then I discounted half of it, as I tend to do. But even so I ended up with one of three wooden spoons in the competition.
I would ask in all sincerity that you Tory posters keep your feet a bit more on the ground next year, so as not to mislead the innocent, Alastair. Please.
Uncalled for, Alastair (45), I think. “What do you make of Ming then? Something must surely be wrong with him. He’s only 65 but by looks he’s going on 90.”
You know perfectly well that he had treatment for cancer. I would not wish the illness, the treatment or the after-effects on anybody, Alastair.
As far as we know, he is perfectly well now, fortunately. But illnesses do leave an effect on the physical appearance.
And then our very own DDC thinks that Cameron is “perfect in every way” - I can´t remember our Andrea speaking of him in the same terms. However…..
Personally - from afar - I see Ming as far more healthy than Cameron. And, as I said before, impicitly, I wish them both the very best of health in 2007. Illness would be a very rotten grounds to have a byelection.
But in terms of being thoroughly fed up with his party, my bet would still be on Cameron´s deciding to chuck it all in as a bad job.
47 -
‘Innocent’ is one way of putting it….
48. Tressage. None of us wish bad health on any of our politicians.
I tried to enter Mike’s comp last year but my entry didn’t get through the spam filter. I will be entering for next year when I predict Cameron going from strength to strength.
Sage, any chance I might help you to see the light next year? We would make a good team you and me. My skill at predicting our successes added to your blind optimism would make us a great team on the net.
51. I’m off to watch Carry On Follow That Camel while you ponder my offer.
Tressage - have you been at the Christmas brandy again?
“But in terms of being thoroughly fed up with his party, my bet would still be on Cameron´s deciding to chuck it all in as a bad job.”
Can I just bring you back to reality - which party has had poll leads for most of the year? Which party just posted 40% and something like an 8 point lead in a recent poll? Which leader is showing a consistent and increasing lead over Gordon Brown in the “who do you want to win” question?
And conversely, which party’s leader just posted 15%, and is struggling to get noticed day after day?
I’m not counting any chickens for a long long while yet, but I know which leader’s 1st 12 months I’d be happier with…
Ming’s foray on to Tory crime territory in his New Year message strikes me as rather a desperate ploy. I wonder what kind of cord it strikes with his more liberal members?
I note that I join several other Lib Dems in being much more realistic about US election results than UK ones!
Well done Tim and David R.
With Gordon Brown approaching as PM,DC’s policy review probably going to porrayed as a sham,who wouldlike to bet against Xmas 2007-GB well ahead in the polls,set fair for a fourth staright Labour victory,with DC scratching his head,saying ‘What the f*** is going on?’:lol:
55 - Me, for one.
55. Me, for two.
Just to confuse things, there are two Julian H’s … I’m the one without the space!
…..and a very Merry Christmas to you Eastern Eye. You sound like you need one!
Unortunately I don’t know how to download an excel file but I gather I lost my deposit….and then some!! Anyway Dom Perignon ‘92 to the winners and Bulgarian Reisling (any date!) to the losers.
Excellent news! I hear Cameron’s New Years’s Resolution is to give up eye catching gimmicks……
…..I understand he’s in Lapland at the moment choosing some Reindeer for a greener way to get round Parliament Square.
58. Is this my Malkovich moment?
47 - “But I must say, Alastair, that I feel very let down by all you Tory chaps. I read all that you had to say about Cameron and how marvellous he was.”
I see, so thats why you predicted a Labour lead of 2% in December. Only 10% out.
And lest we forget you were also rather overoptimistic about the Lib Dems - I presume they similarly let you down?
58, 60 - I’ve met both of you, but never in the same room together…