Did anybody bet on Orpington in 1962?
December 31st, 2006
When was the first legal political betting market?
As part of my research for my book on politics and betting I am trying to find the event on which there was the first legal betting market.
Betting became a mass market legal activity in October 1961 when high street betting shops were permitted for the first time.
I know that there was very active betting during the 1963 Tory leadership contest after the resignation of Harold Macmillan because that was when I placed my first ever political bet - a loser as it happens. I should have stopped then!
But can anybody recall betting activity on something earlier - and the biggest event in the intervening period was the Orpington by-election when Eric Lubbock secured a 32% swing for the Liberal and took the south east London suburban seat from the Tories with a majority of nearly 8,000.
This gave them a huge boost in the polls and by October 1962 they were the most popular party in the country.
Can anybody recall betting on this by election and, if possible, does anybody remember the odds? This would be a really helpful addition to the book.
I would be very grateful for any help. Either post it in the comments thread below or email me directly.
The 2007 Prediction Competition: This will now published on New Year’s Day.
Problems on Internet Explorer Visitors trying to use the site on IE are having problems viewing and taking part in discussions. This does not seem to be affecting those using Firefox. My son, Robert, is in Australia and I am trying to contact him to see if he can help.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
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Mike - I usually use Firefox, but this post, and the test one before it were done using Internet Explorer. So if there is a problem it doesn’t seem to be affecting me on Internet Explorer (not that I use it that much anyway!).
Problem seems solved .
No it isn’t lol , Only this and previous threar are visible and can be posted on . Previous December threads have vanished .
5 - Oops! Didn’t see that! Good job I use Firefox
The poster seems to imply the by-election was held on a Wednesday? Was that usual and if so, when did Thursdays become the standard?
On topic, I don’t have any answers to the question, though I’d be surprised if a market did exist - wasn’t one of the reasons why it’s so remembered even today that the result was utterly unexpected? Another possibility for a pre-Tory leadership market (though admittedly, post-Orpington), was for the Labour leadership during their election in Jan/Feb 1963. Still, good luck with your search.
re 5. I wonder whether we are seeing yet again The Curse of Lembit
The prior post does not allow me to post on it nor are any previous posts visible. Just this one.
Even ConHome has not gone nuts about Dave’s working class quote, praises it as being for the strivers. The Tories must be the party of the working classes as we were in Maggie’s day, the party of Sun readers fed up with crime, early release and shuttered hospitals.
Seems a great time for those still struggling with IE to switch to Firefox!
Mike - have you ever totted up how far ahead (or behind) you are across all of your political betting decades? I’m sure your comment that you should have stopped in 1963 is not correct….?
7. see my page at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_by-election_records#By-election_days
The Libs had narrowly failed the previous day (Tues 13/3/1962) to take Blackpool North….
re 10. I am certainly many thousands of pounds ahead. 2005 and 2006 have been brilliant with the General Election and the Tory and Lib Dem leadership contests. There has also been David Blunkett who I backed to lose his job before the end of 2004 - he did. Then I backed him to return to the Cabinet after the 2005 election - he did. And then I backed him again to lose his job during the Kimberly business at the end of last year. In fact I was thinking of dedicating my book to David Blunkett - “former Labour minister and the political punter’s friend”
I lost money in 2004 on the London Mayoral race but not as much as I had won in 200o. It goes on.
Mind you if you add up the time spent on this I guess I am barely earning the minimum wage!!
Mike, when is your book due to be published?
re 13. The manuscript has to be in the week after next and I have still got quite a lot of work to do. I think the publishers, Harriman House, are hoping for it to be out in April-May. Incidentally Harriman House was the firm bought the online bookshop, Politicos, from Iain Dale in October and I think they are quite keen to build up a political range.
Cameron’s call to be the party of the “Working man” and not the rich and powerful is a smart move given that Labour is now so entwined with big business it couldnt extracate itself even if it wanted to (which the leaderships doesnt want to anyway - New Labour has always been infatuated with big business).
However, it certanly isnt bold, or audacious. It is quite obvious and safe. The issue is: will people believe it, given the facts of the history of the Tories in power? While it seems bizzare to the objective observer that people would fall for Cameron’s PR on this, lessons from Cameron’s “Greening” of the Tories (which has involved no serious policy changes; only words) shows that actually the people will believe it despite the obvious disconnect with the reality of what happens under Tory governments.
What I think is a more interesting line of attack is this:
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1980571,00.html
Such a unified and broad group railing against Labour’s massive aussault on individual liberty over the last 5 years is bound to have an effect on the public mind. Not only that, but it might actually result in a Bill of Rights to protect us against future messianic leaders who think they know better than everyone else
Sorry mike, can’t help you much I was not born then
If jackW were around he could help with that and possibly wih political betting before bookies were made ilegal 
On the previous thread I tend to agree with comentator. We captured that vote through out the 80’s and we need it back to win again.
PS: The future shape of the UK govt?:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/31/nbrown31.xml
A major reshuffle on the cards. A good move I think. Brown could get more of a bounce from throwing out the trash in the Cabinet than from his own change at the top. Hasty demotions for Hewitt and Blears would also help!
15 - That’s incredible - the idea that, even five years ago, labour would be welcome in such an exercise (protecting civil liberties) would have been unthinkable. As good an example of how parties can, and do, change as you could find.
This is where lib dems should be attacking again and again, forget the few who would be on John Reid’s side, they’d never vote lib dem anyway. With Iraq being a lesser (though still important) issue a philosophy of, and policies on, protecting individual liberty is the way to go.
18.
Your right there why waste it.
18. Quite but it’s also smart politics with the Tories on the up LDs need Tory votes in Lab/Lib seats as well as GMW votes. For the Tories I really think the effects will be even more dramatic as Lib Dems in Lab/Con seats start to vote to oust Labour just as they once did against Tories. Tactical unwind with a vengeance I think. That is why i still hold LD seat count will hold up well, even as vote share dips due to third ploace sqeezing in thew South. But likewise the Tories will see many MW vote drops in similar seats.
18 - Should, of course, read “would be *un*welcome”.
17 Mboy. Interesting story in the Telegraph. A similar one appeared in the Guardian last week. Blair is slowly being edged out of the picture and the contrast between Brown’s actions and Cameron’s sweet nothings should see an immediate reversal in Party fortunes as soon as the batton is passed. I wonder whether Labour are going to put up with Blairs foot dragging for much longer? His MP’s must be desperate for him to go and to take the dead wood with him
roger: I dont think Blair will go before the elections now. If he doesnt go in January it will then be too late anyway; it would cause chaos for the campaign. The only possibility as I see it is a sudden resignation in mid Jan during a quiet spell (if there is one). But people are saying how Blair still has things to do before he goes. T go in Jan would look like he was forced out by “Honourgate”.
re 22. But Roger - opposition parties can do nothing. They have no power so a contrast between “Brown’s actions and Cameron’s sweet nothings” is really a bit meaningless and the public can see this. For an opposition party just to make headlines requires a lot of doing and highly creative PR as we saw for a period with the Lib Dems in the early summer. That’s why an opposition leader can only be about spin. Sustaining this while maintaining a credibility is a big challenge.
In the end Government’s do lose elections and neither you nor I can predict for sure how the dour one is going to play.
Is Lubbock still around BTW. How long did he hold for.
25. yes, now Lord Avebury. lost to Ivor Stanbrook in 1970…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Lubbock
25: He’s still about - he’s a forign affairs spokesman in the Lords. Lord Avebury (for it is he!) also has a blog here http://www.ericavebury.blogspot.com/
Is it me or is it quiet here? Happy New year everyone.
Incedently my predictions for 2007 are here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
My first prediction is a certainty. In fact I would bet the house on it
Happy 2007 to all Peebies and their families, long-suffering or otherwise
[29] Benedict, you disappoint me. I expected your first prediction to be that you would plug your blog here twice a day
Re
Innocent Abroad, Happy new year to you as well 
Just looking back at that poster, one of the most interesting things about it is the number of speaking dates. It is a shame politicians don’t seem to do that anymore.
Site up and running again? Great! Just in time to wish all PBers a happy and successful 2007.
RE 33, Many thanks Peter, and on that note I am off down the pub
Oh, and I forgot to say well done to Mike and his son for getting the site back up, I hope the Smithsons have a very good year indeed.
It is already 2007 here in Sydney - happy new year to all PBers.
Happy New Year everybody.
Happy New Year from the Peoples’ Republic of East Yorkshire, dudes.
11. That stuff on Wikipedia is interesting. I have made a couple of minor edits where you omitted things. What is the significance of the red/blue colouring of some of the text? I wasn’t sure if I was supposed to tell it to do any particular colour (or how).
Hello all - happy new year!
My point of view is that DC isn’t being particularly audacious in describing the Tories as the party of the working man. That’s always how I’ve viewed them [us] - the party of those who [very broadly] want to see people do better, rather than the party who want to see people nailed down into their brackets. Although I recognise that - interestingly - less blue people than me see the world entirely differently given almost exactly the same starting parameters. Odd.
Although to be honest, this is an open goal for the LDs if they care to shoot in that direction.
[Please excuse the inarticulacy. It’s been a surprisingly good evening. Not that that appears to have stopped me returning here to post my (by this time justifiably) blethery opinions. ]
36. Icarus did you enjoy the fireworks? Welcome to the Emerald City.
Happy New Year, everyone
40. A red link means that the link doesn’t exist yet (you can of course create one!), blue means it does. er… that’s it….
Happy 2007 everyone…
Well no one seems to believe PC will do at all well, but Labour won’t either. So Tory/Lib Dem administration in Cardiff. Now that could be interesting….. Also Labour’s hit in the Local Elections seems mild after reading Mr Fear’s articles.
Happy New Year BTW.
Happy New Year to all Polital Betting posters - friends and foes alike!!
A guid ne’er to all PBers.
SNP membership now up to 12,571.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/77790.html
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=6242007
Happy New Year to all Peebies. Best wishes for 2007. May you keep your deposits and may all swings be in your favour.
Previous thread @ 16. David Herdson. “The reality is that those working in the private sector between lowish and middle grades have not done well out of Labour”.
I think this was very insightful. This group of the electorate are crucial to victory and if this analysis is correct then it could spell real trouble for Labour at the next election. I only hope that the electorate are astute enough to recognise Cameron as the paper tiger he is, in charge of an unreconstructed reactionary blue-rinsed Tory party.
Glad I got that off my chest!
40.
“DC isn’t being particularly audacious in describing the Tories as the party of the working man.”
Indeed. Just a spilchakka misfire as the tassor within ‘comes out’.
Happy New Year to all.
Looking at the competition thread the estimates for Labour council seat losses seem a bit low. This year Labour are defending around 2,900 of which 500 are in Scotland. Of the 2,400 in England about 1,900 were won in 2003 and 500 in 2004.
Independent estimates of the effect of STV in Scotland suggest 100 Labour losses if they retain the 32.5% vote share of 2003. The introduction of STV throws up all kinds of imponderables but it is difficult to see how Labour won’t fall back by at least another 50.
In England it is possible to make a rough estimate of losses based on Labour doing as badly as they did in 2004 and 2006 - a 26% projected national vote share. They should break even on the seats won in 2004 (last year they made a net loss of 10 in largely the same set of wards), but there are bound to be big losses among the 1,900 won in 2003. In 2006 Labour were defending around 1300 seats won in 2002 and lost 310 (net), almost a quarter. A slightly lower attrition rate might be hoped for this time, given that 2002 was a little better for Labour than 2003, but a similar performance to last year would see 400 losses.
A baseline figure for judging Labour’s local elections performance is therefore around 550 net losses. Anything less would be an improvement on last year.
Is SBS about. I tink strongly he may wish to revise one of his predictions.
Well here goes. Can those who think only a reduction of two for Labour in the Welsh Assembly explain their reasnoning at all, cos I can’t.
Has that leading political analyst Fiona Phillips been at the Xmas Sherry? Writing in the Daily Mirror (or was that on the mirror with the daily lipstick?) she says:
“JUST a word to the Lib Dems: all is not lost. I saw Charles Kennedy last week at an awards ceremony - ..and he was on fine form.
He delivered a speech that was honest, full of humility, and very funny. He’s still got Lib Dem Leader written all over him. So come all ye faithful Lib Dems, why not write this year off, put him back where he belongs, and we’ll pretend 2006 didn’t happen. Happy New Year!”
I trust you will all be revising your predictions immediately, and will not be diverted by Lembit’s latest ‘cheeky’ photo on page 21 of the Daily Mail?
Happy New Year to all PBers, must now go back to nursing my hangover!
51 / 52 - fair enough. Did my predictions in a hurry. Happy new year!
55. Here FWIW. The Tories will win Cardiff North. Rik W is more likely to become Tory leader than Labour are to hold Cardiff North in the Welsh Assembly. There’s Vale of Glamorgan another traditionally Tory seat highly to revert so that’s two and counting before we even look at Plaid and the Liberal Democrats. The Labour AM already retired in Cardiff North (saw writing on wall and chickened out of thrashing). Then there’s Preseli Pembs and Clwyd West, both won at GE but not previous Assembly Election. PC should win Llanelli at the least. Lib Dems have a few chances eg Swansea West etc. It’s looking very bad for Labour even assuming PC don’t a 1999 again. Think five losses is Labour’s starting point. Would revise your prediction SBS, don’t want to miss out on the prizes.
56 - but as they lose FPTP seats won’t they start picking up proportional ones?
56 / 57
I think Labour will do worse than -2 come to think of it, but not so much worse given top ups. I didn’t take the competition too seriously - am still in festive spirit with glass of wine in hand.
I note that 3 LD former candidates defecated to the Tories this week. I will post more on this tomorrow.
Toasted the New Year with family celebrating the end of Tony Blair this year.
“Did anybody bet on Orpington in 1962?”
I think the answer is no. Clement Freud placed money on his win in 1973 though.
See Lord Lambton has died. Had it not been for the NOTW, Alan Beith may never have become an MP.
57. It is divided by region, so it might be different for them elsewhere. But in South Wales they already hold so many seats it would have to be a meltdown of epic proportions before they started picking up list seats in the South. So while Labour are on course to do pretty damn badly it would have to be the perfect storm for that to start happening.
57. Probably only in the Mid/West region, if they lose two or more of their constituency seats. Labour are too over-represented in all the other regions to pick up list seats unless they start losing safe constituencies as well as marginals.
Happy New Year to all at pb.c!
Just looking at some of the predictions for the Scottish Parliament 2007 elections.
Several people are tipping Alex Salmond as First Minister but at the same time predicting only 9 to 14 gains for the SNP. That would put the SNP in the range 36-41 seats out of 129. So either someones got their maths wrong or some very subtle hedging is going on.
62 - I would expect some sort of coalition, with SNP as the largest party, hence the lower gains but Salmond as First Minister.
Meanwhile I am surprised by how many people expect the Cash for Honours investigation to continue the whole of next year. Isn’t there a point where even without charges, Scotland Yard will stop looking?
Anyone taking over ‘public’ leadership of Scotland with less than a third of the seats would be as nutty as a Dundee cake. So, then again, perhaps the SNP just might. . . .
64 - Maybe I read the question wrong - I put 365 because I think that NO charges will be bought, and therefore all the days of 2007 will pass. Did I read the question wrong?
“this year”, I should say!
66 - I think you did (but of course, the final word is Mike’s). If the investigation is closed at some point this year, even without charges, I don’t think it can be said to have continued for 365 days.
65 - Someone has to take charge, and if the largest party only has a third of the seats then they are the most likely ones to do so, albeit with the support of a substantially sized minority partner (or partners).
UKP, but on those figures I don’t think that the SNP is neccessary the larget party - just that Labour, if supported in coalition by the Lib Dems, will not have a majority.
68. My interpretation was that if no charges are brought then it counts as 365 days without charges being brought, regardless of how long the investigation takes.
I doubt that labour would be supported by the lib dems next time, it’s suicidal to prop up a party who have lost seats badly.
Given that, this make-up is quite likely (although my actual prediction predicts that labour would be slightly ahead in seats but unable to form a coalition) -
SNP 39 (+12)
Lab 38(-12)
LD 23 (+6)
Con 17 (-1)
Grn 7 (nc)
Others 5 (-5)
SNP/LD/Grn possible at 69 seats, change labour for SNP and it could be 68 setas but that’s far too dangerous for LDs I think.
72. “my actual prediction predicts that Labour would be slightly ahead in seats but unable to form a coalition.”
Mine too - I just think the sensible thing for the opposition in these circumstances would be to let Labour stew as a minority administration. The ‘grand coalition’ against them is too disparate (despite the rhetoric of Cameron, Tories and Greens will not ‘pull together’ on much) and would enable the Lib Dems in particular, and Labour to a lesser extent, to lable SNPs as ‘tartan tories’ far more effectively than has ever been done before, which might see them off as a significant force in Scottish politics forever.
A Lib Dem/SNP/Green coalition though (if numbers stacked up). . .
71 - but then the question ought to have read “how many days will pass without an MP or peer being charged”. As it is, if you answer 365 then you end up saying the investigation will continue for 365 days.
58. ‘I note that 3 LD former candidates defecated to the Tories this week.’
Blimey first Mark Oaten, now they’re all at it!
72. Those figures have SNP one ahead of Labour.
75 - I tried to post on the defections the other day but PB.com was having problems! 7 candidates from the 2005 GE have now defected from the LDs to the Conservatives in 12 months - surely some record?
The first MP cannot be far off!
“The first MP cannot be far off!”
The unmistakable sound of January! (Happy new year, Rik.)
I don’t think that anyone has managed to spell “Nicol Stephen” correctly yet on the forecast thingie. Mind you, you need a pretty rich imagination to see him as First Minister
77. You’re very forbearing. Surprised you didn’t rise to the bait at 56.
77 Interesting speculation, Rik. So, what’s your track record?
This is the lugubrious occasion of the 3,000th US soldier death. The evidence is now so clear-cut that even George Bush understands that the US is not winning the war in Iraq.
So, let us remember that you — together with Matthew JCG Partridge — have been the loudest and most extravagant trumpeters for the Iraq War on pb.com, constantly assuring us of its wisdom and success.
Perhaps some contrition, some regret, might be in order?
81. Never mind that. Engage on 56 or not.
82. Labour will lose seats to Cons, LibDems and Plaid.
I agree that Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Clwyd West, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Llanelli are already lost — the first 4 to the Conservatives and the last to Plaid. I would add Aberconwy and Camarthen West & Pembrokeshire South as the next likely Labour losses (to Plaid) & then possibly Swansea West.
I think (and hope) Marek and Law will be returned as independents.
83. To clarify I can see CW&PS tp Plaid perhaps but think Tory win, Plaid close second and Labour miserable third, Aberconwy a kinfe edge one I think Tory and PC, but you’re not saying Plaid will win Swansea West are you. BTW you think PC will break into the valleys as 99. That’s the difference between a caning with the Tories and Lib Dems on the up and a massacre with Plaid matching them. Anyways those predicting Labour only down by two are are mad you think.You think Labour-Plaid coalition is the end game to match.
Last Law certainly returned Marek could easily see a split vote with the Lib Dems seeing Labour back. Thoughts.
81 - what a pompous posting!
Seven Lib Dem Parliamentary candidates defecting in 12 months to the Tories aint bad Mr!!!
And as for Iraq - I maintain that removal a brutal and evil dictator was a good thing to do. The aftermath (as I have previously said) was poorly handled in some respects. I suspect like most critics you have not been to Iraq recently and form your impressions from the BBC and other media.
85 Please go back to Iraq if you think it has been such a success.
No doubt the Iraqis would like to thank you. And if you leave the highly fortified ares, I suspect you’ll only need a one-way air ticket.
RE 85, RikW, Whilst I agree on Saddam, I think this:
“The aftermath (as I have previously said) was poorly handled in some respects.”
has to be the understatement of the decade. The aftermath has been so incompetently handled it is unreal, hence me writing this:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2006/08/iraq-why-are-we-in-this-mess.html
All of what I said there was forseeable, and I am convinced that a lot of people in the US particularly the State department did see it, they just were not listened to.
The world is a better place without Saddam Hussein, but sadly Iraq isn’t….
Re 88, Rod, very well put. It need not have been this way either.
86 -Gwynfa - I have travelled widely around Iraq in 2003 and 2004, outside of the “fortified” areas. I have had people I know killed out there. SO please get off your high horse!
90 My feelings go out to the relatives of those killed.
The sad truth is that their deaths were in vain. And all because of misguided fools like you (and others)
Rod Crosby puts it very well. Difficult though it was to imagine a worse Iraq than under Saddam, somehow the Coalition of the Willing has managed to achieve it.
91. Sorry to interrupt the squabble, but do you want to engage on 84 at all. Thanks.
92 Punter, I think I largely agree with you. If Labour make only 2 net losses in the Welsh Assembly elections — they’ll be mightily relieved.
Even given the fact that some of the seats will come back via the regional lists, I’d still predict Labour in the mid 20s after the elections, so your estimate of 5 or so losses looks very reasonable to me.
However, if things get worse for Labour before TB finally f**ks off, then I could imagine Plaid making inroads into the Western valley seats as in 99.
I personally hope Marek survives (as I like independents, mavericks and mathematicians) — but I agree your scenario is possible and that Wrecsam is probably Labour’s best hope of a gain.
90.
“I have had people I know killed out there.” (gulp) Sutton politics must be real scary!
I think there were multiple legal (and illegal) betting markets in the US from a very early time. Indeed, at one time political futures used to be traded alongside the stock market. I vaguely remember reading that one mobster was shot for gambling debts on the eve of the 1948 election - the irony being that he had placed a large sum on money on Truman before he died - so that ironically his debtors would have been wise to wait until after the result.
93. Thanks. You agree other points eg Labour-Plaid coalition. Also Aberconwy and Swanswea West are you calling both for Plaid.
Some other points are the Tories doing as well in North Wales as the Locals Bys suggest, talk of seats like Delyn in range etc or that not on.
I actually think five maybe conservative right see 61. For Labour to pick up list seats in the South it would have to be real melydown. With the Tories picking up four at least, five maybe conservative estimate for Labour I think. Unless PLaid repeat 99 I can’t think of any obvious gains for them can you. I think you’re right re TB I bet Plaid are praying he’s still there in May. Could you list the seats you think each Party will gain. BTW are you a Plaid man yourself perhaps.
95 - at least since the 19th century.
http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_luskin/luskin200410080821.asp
http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/BettingPaper_final(JEP_Resubmit).pdf
I think you will have to copy and paste the second link.
93 Punter, I’d say the changes will be
Clwyd West, Lab –> Con
Cardiff N, Lab –> Con,
Preseli P, Lab –> Con,
Llanelli, Lab –> Plaid,
Aberconwy, Lab –> Plaid,
Vale of Glam, Lab –> Con,
PS & CW, Lab –> Plaid
I’d say the first 4 or 5 are probably unstoppable.
If things are really bad for Labour, the next tranche of seats to fall would be Rhondda (to Plaid), Bridgend and Delyn (both to Con) and Swansea W (to LDems).
Just as voters tend to be more likely to vote UKIP at European elections, so IMO they tend to be more likely to vote for Plaid in the Welsh Assembly elections. Therefore, I have called Aberconwy and PS & CW for Plaid. I agree they are really 3-way marginals. If, as you suggest, they go blue, then the Cons will be back in Wales in a big way.
If TB really is still there in May, I am sure Plaid and the SNP will hardly be able to believe their luck.
99. Thanks very much. Any views on Cardiff South and the Newport seats. At Westminster West and East look surprisingly close perhaps.
Do you know how many seats Labour held must tumble b4 they pick up list seats in South/South East. Must be colossal right. Are you a Plaid man perhaps.