Who will be the “PBC POLITICAL FORECASTER OF THE YEAR”?
January 1st, 2007
Get your entries in now for the 2007 Prize Prediction Competition
Please post your entries in the comments thread below by 2359 GMT on January 3rd 2007. PLEASE DO NOT USE this thread for comments on the questions - instead use the previous threads.
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown)
2. Leader of the Opposition
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer
6. President of France (100 points)
7. Scotland’s First Minister
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points)
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points)
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year
20. The LDs highest rating during the year
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections
Please copy and paste Comment 1 as your entry form.
Best of luck and a happy New Year. As well as the honour the winner will receive a prize.
TECHNICAL PROBLEMS: Sorry for the down-time yesterday and thanks to Matthew Durkin for his advice in helping to fix the display problem for Internet Explorer users. All seems to have been resolved - fingers crossed.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
PLEASE COPY AND PASTE THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister
2. Leader of the Opposition
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer
6. President of France
7. Scotland’s First Minister
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year
20. The LDs highest rating during the year
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections
I predict I will be the first post of 2007.
Tada! Do I win anything?
Happy New Year all… hic!
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Gordon Brown
2. David Cameron
3. Nick Clegg
4. Hilary Benn
5. Alistair Darling
6. Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Alex Salmond
8. Hillary Clinton
9. John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 162
11. 175
12. 365
13. 60
14. 45
15. 120
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. +3
17. -5
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 42%
19. 36%
20. 22%
21. 16%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. +13
23. +4
24. -21
25. -10
26. -475
27. -100
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister : Alan Hope
2. Leader of the Opposition : Nigel Farage
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats : Mink Amble
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party : Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer : Melodie Staniforth
6. President of France : Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister : Ewan MacTeagle
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination : Er… do you mean in the USA Presidential election? If so, Hilllary Clllinton. If not, you need to say what you mean.
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination : (ditto) John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM : 206 and a half
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader : 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader : 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland : 131
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged : 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form : 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office : +2
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. : -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year : 43
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year : 0
20. The LDs highest rating during the year : 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year : 0
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament : -27
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly : -12
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament : -50
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly : -30
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections : -1000
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections : -503
PLEASE COPY AND PAST THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg (Oh no I am copying Alastair :shock:)
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Miliband (just to be wild)
6. President of France - Segolin Royale
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - not sure - will say McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 93 (my favourite number)
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 67
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 27
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 195
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office + 5%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +2%
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 40%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 34%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 20%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 15%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly 0
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -17
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -6
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -135
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -45
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Harriet Harman
6. President of France: Nicholas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 181
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 100
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 280
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +4
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 36
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 19
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -17
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -219
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: -28
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alistair Darling
6. President of France: Ségolène Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 160
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 162
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 135
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 240
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +2
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: -3
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 40
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 26
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 17
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +13
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -18
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -3
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -461
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: +57
Ack, that should be -57 for the Lib Dems at the locals, followed up by a leadership election.
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordn Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn (Cruddas a close second)
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Stephen Timms
6. President of France: Nikolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Hillary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 206
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 183
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +2
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 17
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +4
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -7
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -605
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local election: -35
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alastaire Darling
6. President of France: Segoline Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Jack McConnel
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 160
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 90
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: none will be charged. The inquiry will end in 30 days
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +4
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: +2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 38
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 32
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 16
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -8
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -150
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: +20
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Jon Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Jack Straw
6. President of France: Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 250
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 30
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 75
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: -4
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 43
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 24
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 16
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +11
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -15
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -5
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -750
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: -85
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. GB
2. DC
3. MC
4. Hilary Benn
5. Milliband
6. Sarkozy
7. McConnell
8. Obama
9. McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 185
11. 365
12. 365
13. 125
14. 365
15. 150 though it will need a steward’s… probably not exactly in the form envisaged already
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. 1
17. 0
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 41
19. 34
20. 24
21. 16
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. 10
23. 4
24. -12
25. -8
26. -250
27. -50 including Scotland?
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Darling
6. President of France: Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Gore
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 170
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 45
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 80
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 270
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.: -4
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 21
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 15
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +8
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -12
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -1
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -150
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections : -75
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling
6. President of France Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Hillary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John Mcain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 182
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 26
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.+2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 40
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly + 2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -8
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -6
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +6
1. Brown
2. Cameron
3. Campbell
4. Harriet Harmon
5. Darling
6. Sarkozy
7. Jack McConnell
8. John Edwards
9. John McCain
10. 182
11. 365
12. 365
13. 130
14. 365
15. 365
16. +3
17. -4
18. 43%
19. 37%
20. 21%
21. 15%
22. +11
23. +3
24. -18
25. -9
26. -700
27. +110
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer A dARLING
6. President of France MMe Royale
7. Scotland’s First MinisterNichol Stephens
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 123
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 130
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland15
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged200
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form145
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +5
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +5
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 38
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year31
20. The LDs highest rating during the year23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year12
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament-12
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly-4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections-135
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections-80
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Brown
2. Cameron
3. Campbell
4. Cruddas
5. Darling
6. Royal
7. Salmond
8. Clinton
9. Giuliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 270
11. 365
12. 365
13. 130
14. 365
15. 120
16. +2
17. +4
18. 41
19. 36
20. 20
21. 14
22. +15
23. +1
24. -17
25. -4
26. -350
27. +140
PLEASE COPY AND PASTE THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: David Cameron (in a minority govt)
2. Leader of the Opposition: John Reid (Gordon goes early and loses)
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Vince Cable
6. President of France: La Belle Segolene
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 125
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 155
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 180
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +2
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 44
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 24
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 13
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -17
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -9
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -50
PLEASE COPY AND PASTE THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Andy Kerr
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - Rudolph Giuliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 120
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 124
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 124
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 45
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 150
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 17
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - -9
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - -260
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - -40
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Charles Kennedy
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Alan Johnson
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alister Darling
6. President of France: Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 210
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 124
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: +3
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 32
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 24
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 15
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: 12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: 3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: - 15
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -6
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: + 25
1. Gordon Brown
2. William Hague
3. Ming Campbell
4. Hilary Benn
5. John Reid (a nice poison chalice !)
6. Sarkozy
7. McConnell
8. Hilary Clinton (regretably)
9. Guiliani
10. 70
11. 365
12. 280
13. 35
14. 365
15. 283
16. Zero
17. +2
18. 37%
19. 31%
20. 22%
21. 14%
22. +9
23. +2
24. -10
25. -3
26. -150
27. Zero(Parity)
PLEASE COPY AND PASTE THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling
6. President of France Royal
7 Scotland’s First Minister McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination John Edwards
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination Arnold Schwarzeneger!
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 186
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 169
12 David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 21
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 122
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 193
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +1
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +3
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 44
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 38
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 21
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 13
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly + 9
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - 8
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -12
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - 388
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - 249
1.GORDON BROWN
2.DAVID CAMERON
3.MING CAMPBELL
4.ALLAN JOHNSON
5.JACK STRAW
6.NICOL JARCOZY
7.JACK MCCONNELL
8.JOHN EDWARDS
9.JOHN MCCAIN
10.126
11.365
12.265
13.365
14.NO CHANGES
15.365
16.+5
17.+2
18.41
19.32
20.23
21.17
22.+4
23.-1
24.-3
25.-2
26-90
27.+40
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister JACK STRAW
2. Leader of the Opposition DAVID DAVIS
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats HUHNE
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party CRUDDAS
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer BROWN
6. President of France ROYAL
7. Scotland’s First Minister SALMOND
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination OBAMA
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination MITT RUMNEY
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 250
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 260
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 341
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 180
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +5
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. NO CHANGE
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 31
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 19
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 13
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +11
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -10
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - 8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -444
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -22
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Peter Hain
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling
6. President of France Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 177
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 195
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 190
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +5
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 32
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 16
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +8
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -5
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -5
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -242
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -80
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alastair Darling
6. President of France - Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - Rudy Giuliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 250
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 365
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 75
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 280
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - no change
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. - -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 16
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +11
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -10
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -4
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -290
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -80
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - David Miliband
6. President of France - Nicholas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - John Edwards
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 195
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 270
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 100
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 41%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 35%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 21%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 16%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - +4
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - -14
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - -400
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - 0
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: ming campbell
2. Leader of the Opposition hague
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Jon Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer David Laws
6. President of France Sarko
7. Scotland’s First Minister McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Clinton (H)
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 90
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 270
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 270
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 180
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 90
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office 8
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.-4
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 40
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year25
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 43
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 17
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +1
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament nc
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -2
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -100
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling
6. President of France Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 180
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 127
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 35%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 23%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 14%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -12
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +20
SORRY MISSED SOMETHING.
1. Prime Minister Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling
6. President of France Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 180
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 127
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office Minus 2%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month Minus 3%.
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 35%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 23%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 14%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -12
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -350
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +20
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Ed Balls
6. President of France - Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 180
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 56
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office
- decrease of 2 points when new leader takes charge
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. - no change
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 43
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly no change
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -13
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -480
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +50
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister – Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition – David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats – Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party – Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer – Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Nicholas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister – Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination – Hillary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination – John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 104
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 315
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 43
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 63
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form -122
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. - –2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 43
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 36
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 15
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +11
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament –17
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly –6
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections –656
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections –159
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Gordon Brown
2. David Cameron
3. Nick Clegg
4. Jon Cruddas
5. Alastair Darling
6. Segolene Royal
7. Alex Salmond
8. Barrack Obama
9. John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 207
11. 157
12. 365
13. 30
14. 166
15. 70
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. +4
17. -2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 41
19. 33
20. 22
21. 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. +10
23. +2
24. -13
25. -4
26. -250
27. -20
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister – GORDON BROWN
2. Leader of the Opposition – DAVID CAMERON
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats – NICK CLEGG(Lets pray)
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party – HILARY BENN
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer – DAVID MILLIBAND
6. President of France - SARKOZY
7. Scotland’s First Minister – NICHOL STEPHENS
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination – HILARY CLINTON
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination – JOHN McCAIN
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM – 150 DAYS
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader – 180 DAYS
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader – 365 DAYS
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland – 90 DAYS
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged – 365 DAYS
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form – 365 DAYS
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +6
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +2
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year – 42 POINTS
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year – 34 POINTS
20. The LDs highest rating during the year – 25 POINTS(post Clegg taking over)
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year – 16 POINTS (if Ming stays)
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -8
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -3
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -260
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -80
Can you do multiple entries?
On a more serious note, anyone have any idea if there are odds knocking about on the next Chancellor?
35. Betfair have a market, Darling 3.1, Balls 3.95, David Miliband 14.5, Timms 18…
Can I point out that we may have a problem with number 23 on the Plaid Cymru gains / losses. This is because there are boundary changes affecting Plaid’s heartland in Gwynedd and no one (that I know of) has done any calculation of the 2003 elections on the 2007 boundaries. Might I therefore suggest that the Plaid Cymru question is changed from net gains / losses in terms of seats to average % share (based on the 2007 votes cast)
36. Thanks, my information is that Darling’s percentage certainty to get the job is very high so his odds represent value. I knew he’d be a favourite but thats good odds alright.
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated)
1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown) GORDON BROWN
2. Leader of the Opposition DAVID CAMERON
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats NICK CLEGG
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party HILARY BENN
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer ALASTAIR DARLING
6. President of France (100 points) NICOLAS SARKOZY
7. Scotland’s First Minister JACK MCCONNELL (alas)
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points) HILARY CLINTON
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points) JOHN MCCAIN
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 135
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 210
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 212
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 33
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 13
1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown) GORDON BROWN
2. Leader of the Opposition DAVID CAMERON
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats NICK CLEGG
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party HILARY BENN
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer ALASTAIR DARLING
6. President of France (100 points) NICOLAS SARKOZY
7. Scotland’s First Minister JACK MCCONNELL (alas)
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points) HILARY CLINTON
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points) JOHN MCCAIN
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM 135
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader 210
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland 212
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +3
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 33
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 13
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +5
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -10
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -2
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -700
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections 0
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Jon Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - Rudy Giuliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 180
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 250
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 100
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +4
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.+4
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 41
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - +10
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - -10
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -5
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - -200
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - +30
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Gordon Brown
2. David Cameron
3. Menzies Campbell
4. John Cruddas
5. Alastair Darling
6. Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Jack McConnell
8. Obama
9. McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10.150
11. 365
12. 365
13. 15
14. 178
15. 300
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. +5
17. -5
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 43
19. 34
20. 20
21. 11
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. + 12
23. + 2
24. - 6
25. - 2
26. - 160
27. + 15
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Gordon Brown
2. David Cameron
3. Ming Campbell
4. Hilary Benn
5. Stephen Timms
6. Segoline Royal
7. Jack McConnell
8. Hilary Clinton
9. Chuck Hagel
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 126 days
11. 365 days
12. 365 days
13. 365 days
14. 100 days
15. 365 days
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. +4
17. +1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 41
19. 32
20. 23
21. 13
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. +7
23. +1
24. -8
25. -2
26. -250
27. -49
The seats stuff is pure guesswork on my part. If(!) I win, winnings to go to the NSPCC.
Happy New Year everyone.
38. Yes there’s been consistent press briefings in the last 48 hours from Brownites suggesting it will be Darling that succeeds their man, assuming he makes No. 10. I make him odds on.
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Gordon Brown
2. David Cameron
3. Nick Clegg
4. Hazel Blears
5. Dawn Primorolo
6. Segolene Royal
7. Jack McConnell
8. Hillary Clinton
9. John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. 200
11. 250
12. 365
13. 30
14. 200
15. 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. +3
17. -5
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. 44
19. 35
20. 24
21. 15
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. +8
23. +2
24. -9
25. -2
26. -300
27. -60
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition – David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats – Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party – Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer – Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister – Alex Salmond
8. Hillary Clinton
9. John McCain
10. Tony Blair – 170 days
11. Ming Campbell - 365 days
12. David Cameron – 365 days
13. Lembit Opik - 180 days
14. The “Cash for honours – 90 days
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” – 150 days
16. plus 4
17. minus 3
18. 42%
19. 34%
20. 24%
21. 17%
22. Net SNP seats: plus 11
23. Net PC seats : plus 2
24. Net Labour seats : minus 15
25. Net Labour seats: minus 6
26. Net Labour seats: minus 400
27. Net Lib Dem seats: minus 35
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hain
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Timms
6. President of France: Sarkozy
7 Scotland’s First Minister: McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: Mitt Rumney
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 205
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12 David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 124
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 140
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +5
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.: +3
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 43
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 35
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 15
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +6
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: + 3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: - 4
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -8
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -300
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: -80
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Jack McConnell
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - Rudy Giuliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 194
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 22
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +8
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month +5
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 37
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 31
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 20
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +9
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly 0
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -9
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly 0
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -305
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +22
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister: Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition: David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats: Sir Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party: Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer: Alistair Darling
6. President of France: Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister: Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination: Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination: Mitt Romney
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM: 190
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader: 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader: 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland: 105
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged: 49
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form: 285
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office: +5
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month: -3
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year: 42
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year: 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year: 23
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year: 14
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: +14
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: +3
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament: -19
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly: -7
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections: -580
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections: +75
Well, Here goes nothing…
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Tony Blair
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - John Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Segolene Royale
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Barack Obama
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - Rudolph Guiliani
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 365
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 31
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 250
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - +3%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. - -2%
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 42%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year - 33%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year - 28%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year - 17%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - +6
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament - -15
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly - -10
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections - -150
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections - +30
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - John Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Jack Straw
6. President of France - Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Jack McConnel
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - John Edwards
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 185
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader -365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 14
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 258
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office - 2%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -1%
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year - 42%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year -35%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year -23%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year -16%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +11
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -15
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -5
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -604
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +45
A quick point that I think is evading some, the labour lead after three months is compared to the *first* month of the new leader, I think that some don’t realise that it’s an additional amount on top of their first amount if they have put two positive figures, so figures of +8 and +5 mean that the labour percentage would have increased by 13%, not 5%, by the third month.
Then again someone might really believe that labour are going to go up 13% in three months - you never know……
I think PB should institute an annual award, ‘The rose tinted spectacles award’ This goes to the poster, who produces the most postive and upbeat interpertation of the latest dire poll result for their party of choice: i.e. the more dire the reading, the better the result!
44. That looks a steal to me, some money has went on.
54 - That was me, sorry……
55? Identity theft?
56 - I meant that it was me that put the money on!
53. Great idea…but with so many likely entrants, whoever has to judge the award will have a huge amount of work on their hands…
57. Ah, you werent the only one.
On Xmas Day 2007
1 - Gordon Brown
2 - David Cameron
3 - Lynn Featherstone
4 - Hilary Benn
5 - Alistair Darling
6 - Sarkozy
7 - Alex Salmond
8 - Hilary Clinton
9 - John McCain
How many days
10 - 168
11 - 276
12 - 365
13 - 300
14 - 365
15 - 365
Increase in Labour poll rating
16 - + 3
17 - - 2
ICM Poll Shares
18 - 41
19 - 34
20 - 24
21 - 17
Seat changes
22 - SNP + 9
23 - PC N/C
24 - Lab - 11
25 - Lab - 6
26 - Lab - 550
27 - LibDem + 100
1. Prime Minister-Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition-David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats-Nick Clegg
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party-Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer-Alastair Darling
6. President of France (100 points)-Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister-Alex Salmond
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination (100 points)-Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination (100 points)-John McCain)
For how many days during 2007 will…? (100 points for correct answers declining by one point per day out until zero. For things you think are not going to change enter 365 days)
10. Tony Blair serve as PM-170
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader-230
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader-365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland-90
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged-30
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form-365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…? (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +4
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month.+1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll reports as.. (50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 42%
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 34%
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22%
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 15%
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections. (For the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments 50 points for each correct answer reducing by 10 points for each seat out. For the council election 75 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out)
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +14
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly +2
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -18
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -10
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -250
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections -30
PLEASE COPY AND PASTE THIS AS YOUR ENTRY FORM
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Menzies Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - John Cruddas
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Douglas Alexander
6. President of France - Segolene Royal
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Wendy Alexander
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Hilary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 175
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 85
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 365
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 250
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +2
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. +1
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating during the year 39
19. The Tories lowest rating during the year 34
20. The LDs highest rating during the year 22
21. The LDs lowest rating during the year 17
Seat losses and gains in the May 3rd elections.
22. Net SNP seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament +12
23. Net PC seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -1
24. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Scottish Parliament -5
25. Net Labour seats won/lost for the Welsh Assembly -1
26. Net Labour seats won/lost for the local elections -250
27. Net Lib Dem seats won/lost for the local elections +10
On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…?
1. Prime Minister - Gordon Brown
2. Leader of the Opposition - David Cameron
3. Leader of the Liberal Democrats - Ming Campbell
4. Deputy Leader of the Labour Party - Hilary Benn
5. Chancellor of the Exchequer - Alistair Darling
6. President of France - Nicolas Sarkozy
7. Scotland’s First Minister - Jack McConnel
8. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Democratic nomination - Hillary Clinton
9. Leader based on average of the three latest polls in race for the Republican nomination - John McCain
For how many days during 2007 will…?
10. Tony Blair serve as PM - 185
11. Ming Campbell serve as Lib Dem Leader - 365
12. David Cameron serve as Tory Leader - 365
13. Lembit Opik serve as LD party spokesman on Wales and Northern Ireland - 90
14. The “Cash for Honours” investigation continue without any current members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords being charged - 70
15. The Conservative Party candidate “A-List” continue in its current form - 365
What increase/decrease in the monthly Guardian ICM poll will there be for…?
16. Labour, compared with an average of the party’s ratings for the previous three months, when the new leader takes over the office +4%
17. Labour in the third month after the new leader has taken over compared with the first month. -3%
What will the Guardian ICM Poll report as..?
18. The Tories highest rating duri