Forecaster of the Year averages for the “How long?” section
January 8th, 2007Thanks to Paul Maggs (Double Carpet) for the latest set of data from entries for the PBC Political Forecaster of 2007 Award.
So quite a vote of confidence there for Ming Campbell but there’s a gloomier forecast for his Welsh & Northern Ireland spokesman, Lembit Opik.
Mike Smithson
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Thanks Paul. That’s very helpful.
Would it be possible to add in a Roger column so we can all see the least likely outcomes?
Thanks Paul. Response to Tyson from the previous thread
“Commentator- Cameron does not have a choice; the needs of his child are so complex that there is not a private school in the country that could make money from caring for children like this.
There are many health conditions too that the private sector will not touch- the richest and most privileged people in our societies are often left with the same choices as the poorest.”
The point is Cameron could have chosen private tuition for his son but puts him in a state special school.
Of course I fully support private education and was privately educated and will educate my children that way. The point is that it is Labour, not the Tories, who attack private education. The Tories believe in choice and the right to spend your money on better health and education if you like. Read LabourHome and they’d like every school to be a comprehensive and parents to have no choice at all.
That’s what rankles. I fully support Ruth Kelly’s choice to do the best for her child and note most Tory bloggers are doing the same.
Hmm, the averages aren’t very meaningful, since presumably those picking 365 days expect them to remain in office a good bit longer…
Fantastic work Paul for the number crunching and Mike for setting up the questions.
Well done all.
Interesting average dates though. I think on average most pundits expect Cameron to be leader this time next year.
Instead of giving us a slightly meaningless “average”, it would be more useful if we could esee what the total number of predictions was for each month (or quarter (or whatever)).
Or perhaps median if grouping by time period is too difficult?
That said, can I add my thanks to you for the work done in compiling the stats, which I’m sure will have been substantial.
Of the six questions, all the averages look credible, taking the Cameron answer as implying a very high liklihood of him staying all year and the Ming one in the same terms - though were he to go, six weeks after their conference is as likely a time as any.
I see we’ve got a new thread in the interim, but here’s the URL for the Scottish list seats calculator.
http://www.cabg05071.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ARADiv5/Scottish_election.xls
I’ll upload Paul’s full spreadsheet showing all the entries tomorrow.
I agree with the points made about the totally meaningless averages.
For example - I expect David Cameron to remain leader of the Conservatives for somewhere between 3,000 and 5,000 more days. Ming Campbell to remain leader of the Lib Dems for around 1,000 more days etc, etc, etc…
The averages are only meaningful for the events that we’re sure are going to happen this year - such as Blair’s departure.
this may seem a bit odd but where could I get a price on Gordon Brown offering a Lib Dem a place in his cabinet?
7 - Thanks Chris - much appreciated little tool to play with…
10 - I don’t know, but I would think you might need to be careful how that bet was phrased if you did get someone to take it. There is a big difference between Brown offering (Ming) a place, and Ming actually accepting it. If the answer is no, the former will almost certainly be behind closed doors and thus not public knowledge
7. Chris A
Thanks for that wonderful spreadsheet for the NE list!
I am really quite amazed by your findings! I had always assumed that if Alex Salmond failed to gain the Gordon FPTP seat from the Lib Dems, and if the SNP gains the marginal Aberdeen C and Dundee W (as looks quite likely), then I, and nearly everybody else, assumed that Salmond had zero chance of a list seat.
However, your spreadsheet shows that even under the scenario above, he still has a fighting chance, with much depending on the strength of the Green vote.
re 13. Of course you can use it for all the other regions as well, and even Wales but remembering that there aren’t 7 list seats to fill in the Welsh regions.
13.”However, your spreadsheet shows that even under the scenario above, he still has a fighting chance, with much depending on the strength of the Green vote. ”
or by how much Labour list vote will fall.
13/15. or by how much the Libdems will grow. The last 2 seats will be probably very close
I’ve just noticed a mistake in the spreadsheet which calculates whether Lab has won a list seat or not so I’ve uploaded a corrected version.
it doesn’t affect any of the Alex Salmond scenarios discussed to date though.
Of course Salmond could win Gordon?? I have friends and family in Aberdeenshire (in the Gordon seat) who reckon Salmond will do it, apparently alot of the campaign team from Banff and Buchan have been out in force! I have o say I think Gordon will be a win too far? Any leak of who the Labour “defector” is? Ive heard rumours that its Mark Lazarowicz MP for Edniburgh North and Leith- im treating that rumour with a pinch of salt though!!
Not sure how being out before the end of the year is a “good” result for Ming. For some of us to be already questioning his leadership is the worry, it took us at least 3 years with Kennedy!
Mak. The big problem for Campbell was that his leadership was questioned even before he was actually the leader
19. HamiltonNat
What is “a win too far”?
Times has a populas poll out tomorrow, Con 39% Lab 32%, can’t see the Libdem rating on Sky interactive. 56% respondents back David Cameron’s demand for a snap GE for public approval of the leader of the Labour party to succeed Tony Blair.
23. LDs at 18%.
With Brown as leader, Labour at 34% (don’t know what the tories would poll though)
23 - Sounds pretty good for us - a nice way to start the new year.
24. Can’t find a link yet on times online. Labour support would increase to 34% with Brown in charge. Satisfaction with the government has slipped from 25% to 15% in the last couple of weeks.
Hope I have the information correct.
24. ‘LDs at 18%’ - the best news of all.
26. With Broawn it’s Con 39, Lab 34
With Reid Con 44, Lab 27
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2537516,00.html
Lord Pearson of Rannoch and Lord Willoughby de Broke have joined UKIP.
Not Lord Willoughby de Broke, Andrea! The world will never be the same again!
29. As advertised a couple of days ago….I wonder how long before they leave again? My bet would be less than a year.
stuart @ 22. By a win too far I mean I think winning Gordon is out of reach of even Alex. However,I suppose we should never underestimate Alex Salmond!!
28 Ah, now I understand the large wads that went on Brown in the Leadership market earlier today! A few keen punters at the Times must have seen the poll and taken the opportunity to snap up whatever was going at around 1.20. They must have layed Reid too.
Makes sense now.
30. If only they had given a peerage to Alastair instead of those 2, thouse things would have never happened!
29 - Following the dissapointment of the Populus poll at least that news will cheer up the regular contributers to ConHome.
35. ConHome actually has quite a few comments today disparaging UKIP, for a change…or should we now be referring to them as ‘U-SKIP’ as one wag on Iain Dale’s site did?
35 You sure, Max? I thought they regarded DC as a traitor and pine for Tebbit to come to the Party’s rescue.
Re 33, Peter I predicted Reid would be sunk a couple of days ago with this:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/01/home-office-still-unfit-for-purpose.html
Did anyone see Paul Masons report on Africa and mobile phones on Newsnight?
Very good news, and yes more on my blog including links!
Interesting numbers in the poll. I will have to think about it a bit.
RE 36, Runnymede, it is unkind to mock the afflicted
The gave a peerage to Lord Willoughby de Broke in about 1452, Andrea. I have no idea what Alastair´s remote ancestor in the male line might have been up to at about that time.
Does this poll have any bearing on the previous trajectory of the thread - i.e. does it make it more or less likely for Ming Campbell to out live the ‘average’ calculated for leading the LDs - there was a bit at the bottom of the article saying that his rating was slightly up, but still lower than Kennedy’s at any time.
38 Congratulations Benedict! You now move clear of Roger and Commentator in the PB Best Tipster League Table.
Missed the Mason report. Can you tell me more? I have a special interest in the subject. (Seriously.) Thanks.
I’m still presuming that any change in vote for a new leader will have fed through before the first poll after they take over (hence my predictions) but Reid’s figures give lie to the idea that labour’s core vote is over 30% if nothing else.
40. Tressage, but Maggie gave it to Lord Pearson of Rannoch in 1990
40. 1452? Wow! He must have known Jack W as a lad.
Re 42, Peter the Punter, many thanks for your kind words! When do I get in the Conference divisions?
On the Africa thing, it is the latest article on my blog (Though won’t be for long) see here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
With links to the BBC article as well.
I admit I’m surprised by such bad figures for Reid.
47. Indeed Andrea. He will be a much better PM than Useless Brown.
Did I hear Libdems at 18? Oh dear..
These numbers will be of interest to Mike as they are the first I have noticed where Useless Brown polls better than Blair.
Re 48, DDC, Reid better than Brown? Forgive me, but that is like saying a chocolate teapot is a far more utilitarian article than a choclate fireguard surely?
PS, how goes it, long time no email.
7.Thanks for that Chris A.
I would not underestimate Alex Salmond as a seasoned campaigner.
46 That fills me with happiness, Benedict.
Until recently I worked as Tax Manager for CDC Group plc which invests heavily in Africa. One of its most successful investments was in Celtel, a pan-African mobile phone company. I have no doubt that the benefits you report are directly related to that investment.
When I first visited I stayed in the company’s beach cottage. It had a phone but it never worked. The housekeeper was apologetic and explained that it took about 3 months on average to get it fixed. It wasn’t a technical problem; the local exchange could have done it in a jiffy but CDC did not allow bribes so he couldn’t pay the man. Mobile phone technology has cut straight through all that graft.
Incidentally, I remember meeting up with some Masai warriors in the bush while on a short safari. After exchanging the usual greetings and taking photos they asked for my address. When I gave it to them they looked at it and laughed. “No, silly. Not your home address - your email! Don’t you have one?”
That was January 2000. I still smile when I think of it.
50 - Have you filled in your ballot paper yet Chris? I’m still quite surprised that Alex Ferguson isn’t standing - I was going to put him first - I’ll need to give it a bit more thought now!
Still very quiet in Edinburgh Central - you’d never know there was going to be an election in a few months time.
RE 51, Peter,
When a Masai laughs at you for not having email you know the world is moving on! Fantastic!
You are right it is about cutting through the corruption and lies. Africans don’t want or need our charity, just a fair crack of the whip. Mobile ohones seem to be dong that. Well, sisters were doing for themselves, now it is Africans. Fantastic!
RE 51, Peter, BTW, you can comment on my blog it self. I would welcome a repeat of your above post.
Have you read Lords of Poverty?
49. Hi Benedict, I’ve been under the weather for quite some time but seem to be on the mend since Saturday. Actually I’ve had some mystery illness and get the results tomorrow. Should be ok but I have been run down since before Christmas.
You know I have a soft spot for Reid. It’s that authoritarian streak in me!
53/54 Benedict
As you might gather, it’s a subject close to my heart so I would love to write more about it and will be delighted to do so on your blog. You may have to teach me how though. Last time I visited, I got in a right muddle.
I have to go now but we’ll continue this again some time soon.
Cheers. (You made my day.)
Nice story, peter. A colleague whom I used to know in Switzerland, a light aircraft enthusiast had a similar experience, landing in the desert in, I think, Chad. He was approached by a group of tribesmen. He bowed gravely and asked if the harvest was good. The chieftain said, “Not bad. But what’s this we hear about Princess Diana getting married?”
52. Hi Max, I have to admit that having looked through all the information,I think I will shelve filling in my ballot until after the local hustings. Like you I am going to have to give this a wee bit of thought.
The North East has thrown out some interesting results over the last 20 years and I am not convinced that they won’t have a few surprises this time round.
It’s been a Libdem council for a while and it is going to be interesting seeing how things develop with regards issues like the Aberdeen bypass.
By the way, Benedict, if you just want to cut and paste that post into your blog, go ahead.
Really must go now.
RE 56, and 59, Peter, just copy and past it in your self. See here:
http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=30194186&postID=480824812093006825
Select other, put in your name, and any website, and click publich an d it is there!
Go on, you know you want to!
RE 57, Nick Palmer
Which paper was the Tory lords defecting to UKIP in?
The UKIP story is here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,17129-2537440,00.html
A good poll for the Tories though there are Labour consolations in the other questions in
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2537516,00.html
- not just the Brown hypotheetical (which I always treat with caution, good or bad) but the strong LD second preference for Labour, useful in seats like mine. What I think is happening is that anti-Labour LDs are starting to switch to the Tories, leaving a smaller LD core which is predominantly anti-Tory. I think a major squeeze of the LD vote outside the seats that they hold is quite likely.
Re 63, Many thanks Nick, I did not think it was in a quality paper.
I had not yet checked the Times. I will leave others to comment on whether it was or was not in a quality paper
needless to say I have blogged it, with the headline, rats join sinking ship!
Peter the Punter, see it was not that hard!
RE 64, Nick you may be right, but he bottom line is that Reid has had it. He had his chances and they have not come off at all in the biggest way possible.