Does opinion really change by all that much?
January 9th, 2007-
Do we make too much of each minute swing?
Last week I had an enjoyable session with the YouGov boss and writer, Peter Kellner, when we talked about a new development his company is planning and, of course, the way the polls are going.
He made a point that seemed to ring very true - that people’s political allegiances do not change by anything like the magnitudes that are reflected in the polls. Things really are much more stable than they appear.
Yes we have events that seem to produce step changes but outside that there is a lot less movement than most people perceive. So just over a year ago we saw a step change with the new Tory leader and then there was another one in May when a series of calamities for Labour also seemed to come together at the same time. Aside from that not very much.
A lot of the problem is the media’s desire for a story. Polls that don’t change that much month by month don’t quite create the headlines that sensational moves do.
We have been conditioned a bit by the polls of yesteryear that did produce dramatic numbers and changes. Polling methodologies have moved on and the mechanisms designed to avoid sample bias seem to be working.
YouGov, of course, are in a strong position to be able to monitor how the views of different people change. Their polling is restricted to their polling panel on whom they have a vast amount of back data. These are YouGov’s last seven polls. The only major variation was at the end of September in the poll taken immediately after Tony Blair’s Manchester conference speech.
Date: CON LAB LD
22/12/06 37 32 15 +5
20/12/06 37 33 17 +4
30/11/06 37 32 16 +5
26/10/06 39 32 16 +7
29/09/06 36 36 16 0
22/09/06 37 33 18 +4
22/09/06 38 31 18 +7
So let’s see what the first poll of 2007 produces - that’s from Populus and is due in the Times tomorrow. A month ago the pollster reported the Tories down to 34% with Labour on 33%.
Mike Smithson
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Mike isn’t this meant to be the second thread on the site with the Populus poll as the new thread?
It also means everyone saying the Conservatives “really” should be fifty points ahead etc are using the wildly innaccurate polls of yesteryear as a guide then.
Defection alert - (not Rik so far)
http://www.liberalreview.com/content/2007/01/labour-councillor-joins-the-lib-dems
Thanks for the article Mike, though as Commentator points out you have just reported on the Populus poll in the previous thread.
The point is surely not about people changing their political allegience but about differential turnout.
I think Rennard of the Lib Dems is one of the very few senior tacticians in all of the parties to fully appreciate that elections are won and lost not neccessarily by millions of voters changing their minds but how disposed people with a tendancy to vote one way or other are to actually support their party on the day.
Down in my area it is becoming more and more apparent on the doorstep just HOW many people who would be expected to vote Conservative haven’t voted for us for ten years or more - we know because they are now beginning to tell us “I will vote for you now but I must admit I haven’t been…”
I have always believed this to be the case but I must admit to being taken aback by the numbers. Even friends of mine who I know to be Conservative are now admitting that they didn’t vote for Howard or Hague because by and large they believed that Blair was a better PM than either of them would have been.
These people would never vote for the Lib Dems -or Labour; they just didn’t vote for anyone.
On the other hand in 1992, when it looked like Kinnock was on his way to no 10 an unexpectedly high turnout handed John Major more votes than any PM in history.
I think this is a difficult trend for the pollsters to accurately pick up.
Blair’s statement this morning shows I think that he has got to that defiant stage that can only mean trouble for his party. He has handed the Lib Dems (and Cameron if he decides to use it - he might not because most Conservatives agree with Blair) some key quotes on how he is not willing to change his behaviour to prevent Climate change, and he doesnt think others should either. Apparently, “having a good time” is more important than the lives of worthless poor people in 3rd world countries like Bangladesh, whose homes will soon cease to exist.
Another sign of decay is Milburn’s outburst last night that Blairites will basically disobey Brown when he is MP. Hardly a recipe for coherant government and success in the future I’d say - Milburn intends to lead the right in acting like “the bast**ds” to Brown, just like the Thatcherites did to Major.
So, we are still 5 months out from the local elections, and Labour is already trying damn hard to make its own life difficult. As nerves fray in the next few months, I predict a repeat of the kind of “black week” that ensured Labour slaughter in the polls last year.
OT — what others think of us. Picture-of-the-day on signs-of-the-times and number one on reddit. http://www.signs-of-the-times.org/signs/pods/watchful_eyes.jpg shows one of Transport for London’s cctv posters with the caption: “And you thought talk of a police state was just fear mongering.”
5. Very interesting Marcus. Another problem has been I think that some Conservative inclined voters have been reluctant to turn out because the national position looked so hopeless, with polls showing large Labour leads. This has also changed now, and is perhaps drawing some latent support ‘out of the woodwork’.
8. also labour supporters who didn’t bother voting last time and 2001 because they assumed labour would win.
9. The polls don’t suggest that hypothetical group are flocking back to the cause though, do they?
6.”Another sign of decay is Milburn’s outburst last night that Blairites will basically disobey Brown when he is MP. Hardly a recipe for coherant government and success in the future I’d say - Milburn intends to lead the right in acting like “the bast**ds” to Brown, just like the Thatcherites did to Major”
I thought it was Byers.
I think this campaign to make the aviation industry a whipping boy over climate change is misplaced. I’ve been an aviation enthusiast all my life, all though was always opposed to Concorde, a technological triumph but a commercial and environmental disaster.
Mboys contention that aviation is responsible for disasters in the 3rd world is risible. Aviation has brought great benefits to the world, including the 3rd world, which people (many of them 4×4 drivers) forget. Aeronautical engineers have made great strides over the past few years to improve the environmental acceptability of aircraft, I’m sure they will continue to do so. If governments wish to reduce some of the negative aspects of aviation, they should encourage the development of turboprop aircraft over pure jet,(more fuel efficient and environmently friendlier) by reducing the tax burden on their manufacture and operation.
Once again we see inadequate politicians, (of all the parties) without any engineering or scientific knowledge, jumping on a bandwaggon before it even leaves Parliament Square. I enjoy flying I will contine to fly at every chance I get, I will feel no guilt for doing so!
Coldstone. Aviation is the lowest taxed form of powered transport possible apart from cycling, because aviation fuel is duty free.
The industry has always been and is still heavily subsidised at every level. Most national airports are bult by taxpayers, Boeing and Airbus are heavily back-door subsidised one way or another, and there are countless loss making airlines still going at their taxpayers expense because of the propensity for virtually every country on earth to need a national flag carrier.
The effect of this is that the airline business totally fails to contribute it’s fair share of the costs to the world environment associated with it’s activity.
Worse, the net effect of the set-up is that consumers in rich countries benefit from lower air fares whilst citizens in poor countries are paying for it -directly through increased national taxation; indirectly because their governments don’t recieve any fuel duty from their airlines, and environmentally because of global warming.
7 - terrifying. And we’re supposed to be happy about this?
Strange Marcus you are the member of a party which has always (sometimes unwisely, I admit) supported the British Aviation industry, Concorde received uncritical support from Conservative politicians. I am the first to criticise the industry, when it was more concerned with ego trip programmes, I think its learnt its lesson. The aviation industry is much more responsive to consumer demand than it was, it is also much more environmentally aware than it was. If your party, intends to carry out a massive increase in taxation on aviation, if they win the next election, please put it in your next manifesto, so we can all judge its merits. I also suggest that next time there is a disaster, in the third world (oh how concerned we all are!) we send the medical supplies by mule train, not by dirty aircraft, after all a few thousand farting mules won’t erode the ozone layer: will they?
P.S. the workers at Exeter Airport will I’m sure, take the new anti-aviation attitude of the Conservative Party into account at the next GE.
13 - Aviation is probably one area where we should face up to the virtual impossibility of major carbon saving improvements. It is a relatively minor polluter compared to power generation, heating/domestic use and motor vehicles (think it was less than cement production in figures I looked at a while back). We can to a large extent see alternative low carbon solutions to generation, domestic use and even motor transport there is no real alternative to petrocarbons for air travel. It’s more important to reduce the major carbon dioxide/methane generators than air travel and the current concentration of publicity on this minor generator is diverting attention from where we should be spending our effort.
Agree Ted absolutely.
Oh by the way marcus have sent a copy of your post, to some friends who work at Exeter Airport, they commute from Torbay.
Oh do you think the Herald Express will be interested.
Andrea: you are of course correct
Marcus: Gosh, excellent post!
coldstone: I didnt blame current climate change on airlines. But as every other industry cuts its emissions, while the airline industry plans to tripple theirs, in 25 years airlines could account for half of CO2 emissions in the UK. Then, airlines will be responsible for us failing to stop climate change. Marcus’s points on tax subsidy are well made. If the same amount of money was thrown at the railways, we’d all be riding in silent mag-lev trains for £10 anywhere.
RE 16, Ted, Aviation is minor at the moment, the issue is growth. That said if you can run a car on bio diesel you can do the same with an aeroplane.
There are other issues with them though, like for example the creation of high level vapour trails etc. That said, that can designed out.
Thanks for reminding me about mag-lev, Eric Laitwaites brilliant invention was cancelled in 1973 by Michael Heseltine!
Would you be interested in seeing live on TV Labour National Policy Forum debate on Trident policy? If so, do you think others would be interested in seeing it?
Some Lab MPs would like to see it televised.
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=32240&SESSION=885
Will not the defection of Lord Willoughby de Broke cause problems should be die? As I understand it when an elected peer dies although any peer can stand in a bye election, the electors are the remaining (elected) peers of the vacancy’s party. In Lord Willoughby de Broke’s case the electorate would be zero. Or would the Tory peers vote for his successor because he was elected as a Tory peer.
Benedict - you cant design out H2O exhausting unless you use a fuel with no hydrogen in it! Perhaps some kind of ultr-fine carbon powder as fuel - but then you get more CO2…oops! The problem with planes is that they are already very efficient and well designed. We are already at diminishing returns stage, and efficiency improvements (in both aerodynamics and engines) are usually only 10% per generation…and a generation is so expensive to design that they happen only every 20 years! Since airline growth is nearly 10% per year, it utterly swamps efficiency gains. However, there are enourmous efficiency gains to be had in the railways, since we are perhaps 3 generations behind in the UK. If visiting other countries is so important (which it is, it opens people’s minds) then diverting the tax breaks given to the airlines to rail and shipping would make them hugely attractive.
Indutry wouldnt like it though, because aviation, like the nuclear industry, has grown fat on public money and will fight to keep its golden egg.
21. EDMs really shouldn’t be abused like this. I know they’re used for all sorts of rot, but this is internal party business, albeit at big stakes.
RE 23, MBoy, I was thinking of the vapour trails which build up on the wings, the ones you can see streaking across the sky, rather than water from combustion.
As for CO2 being a problem, it isn’t if it comes from a renewable rather than fossil source. (See global warming tag on my blog for more details)
24. yes, HenryG, I can understand the “it’s internal party policy” argument. Having said that, I still prefer that kind of EDM (just because they’re, at least, about a serious issue) than EDMs like this one which are totally pointless and they should just be a matter of a press release:
http://edmi.parliament.uk/EDMi/EDMDetails.aspx?EDMID=32178&SESSION=885
Benedict, wingtip contrails are minor compared to exhaust contrails, with the exception of the moment of takeoff (when the flaps are down). This can be seen clearly in: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:C-141_Starlifter_contrail.jpg
Coldstone, you occasionally come across as totally unreasonable. I know you hate Tories, but come on - at least try to have a debate without seeing red every time I say anything.
My point at 13 was in reply to yours at 12; You dismissed the claim earlier that cheap aviation impacts on the third world and I pointed out that it does.
I am not ‘anti-aviation’ but I am anti subsidy; especially when it unfairly benefits one set of consumers or one industry over another.
Your points at 15 about the industry being more responsive to consumer demand and being more environmentally aware than it was are well made and true.
The point is that one nation acting alone cannot affect air aviation duty for the simple resaon that aircraft can pick up fuel anywhere, if we increased the copsts of aviation unilaterally it is one industry that can easily go offshore.
The fact is that jet travel does have a disproportionately serious impact on the greenhouse effect because a) Its growing faster than any other emission b) It’s injected into the atmosphere at a high altitude and c) High level vapour trails are suspected of affecting the level of sunlight.
My point is that the industry’s costs are not yet reflecting this ecological damage.
I’d love to update you all on Northern Ireand the fun prospect of an election to get stuck into come March but….
-Tony is currently in ’say whatever it takes’ mode that nmot even the intervention of Paisley, basically calling him liar, seems able to stop.
-SF are about to get sold a pup on the role of MI5
Hopefully smoke will clear in the day.
Rhona Brankin is the new Communities Minister in the Scottish Executive
OT (but it’s a quiet day so I don’t feel so bad) - I feel embarrassed at asking this as I feel I should know but does anyone have an idea who is Jack McConnell’s heir apparent should he…ahem…trip onto his sword following a bad showing in May in Holyrood?
I’m assuming that it would be someone more to GB’s than Jack McConnell taste but I’m afraid I’m not up enough on the various factions within Scottish Labour.
In regard to the topic of the thread, it would seem obvious that the trend is what’s important to note, not the individual results (which could well lie within the margin of error of previous results anyway).
28
Marcus I don’t think I’m being unreasonable, as for hating Tories, as I’ve explained before I don’t hate people for their political views, I may disagree with them, as I do with you, but hate no. I’m suspicious of politician’s motives, all politicians!
I’m very suspicious of the Tories conversion to ‘green’ politics, I find this attack on the aviation industry very peculiar. As I’ve said before, if it is the intention of the next Conservative Government to introduce taxes on aviation fuel, to limit aviation growth, fine, please make it clear in your manifesto, how much it will be, how much it will increase the cost of a ticet etc. It could be another poll tax, I seem to remember the lady who organised much of the opposition to the poll tax came from Paignton, ‘Torbay centre of the anti-fuel tax lobby’ could do you a power of good.
I think Tony Blair’s comments were sensible. Yes, flying does cause environmental damage, but it accounts for only a small part of the pollution. Attacking flying may generate a few headlines in the short run but it distracts attention from far more important sources of pollution (and ailenates the majority of people who rely on flying). Global warming needs to be addressed by long term solutions rather than knee-jerk posturing.
After all, unless you are going to build a tunnel under the Atlantic, people will always need to fly to places like the US.
It should also be pointed out that Tony Blair was defending long haul flights rather that shorter flights. Indeed, as with Airline accidents, a disproportionate amount of the fuel consumer (and therefore CO2 emitted) comes from takeoff and landing making longer flight more environmentally friendly than shorter flights. Indeed, if you have to fly to the US (as I did last November) flying is the most environmentally option (sailing is extremely polluting).
33 one could row or sail, I suppose.
I´m trying to cut down on flying personally, but I’m not attracted to the “everyone must share the burden” line of thought. It seems to e better to concentrate on the areas where the biggest pay-off is possible (and I think this is electricity generation). Still a take-off tax, as proposed by the Lib Dems, which encourages the efficient use of aircraft seems worthwhile.
OT – COMPETITION UPDATE
Dear all,
In response to some of the comments on yesterday’s thread, I have done some more number-crunching for Part 2 of the Competition (days in 2007).
The Blair splits are as follows: Q2 60% of entries, Q3 34%, quarters 1 & 4 3% each. June is the leading month for his predicted exit with 34%, followed by July with 28% and May with 19%. April and Sep have 6% each.
For Campbell, 67% of entries predicted him to last the full year, while 15% went for a Q2 exit and 10% a departure in Q3.
96% of respondents predicted Cameron to last the full year.
Hope this is helpful – work calls so don’t have time to do any more right now.
Finally, and completely OT, may be going to see Frost/Nixon next week – has anyone been to it already & if so what’s it like?
RE 36, Paul Maggs, Many thanks for the very interesting information.
“Matthew Partridge in total support of Blair”… shocker!
Some of what you say is only partially true Matthew, and some is wrong. While it is true that aircraft engines are on max during takeoff, remember that they are on min during landing. These to some extent balance out, so the effect is not ast great as you might think. Not only that, but turboprop planes are more fuel efficient than equivalent turbofan jet aircraft, and turboprops are more often used for very short-haul because they are smaller and better at lower speeds (350 vs 500 mph). The picture is complicated by many factors, and some people seek to use this to get the picture they want.
As for shipping being very polluting, that depends on the state of the ship. Well run ships are not very polluting at all. Just because many ships are run by cowboys doesnt mean the method is flawed. Remeber that a big ship can carry the same as 10 planes.
12 - Coldstone it may surprise you to learn that i am totally with you on this issue.
I’d like to bid to build a transatlantic tunnel.
I estimate that I’ll need the following.
-An All Star cast of US & British Actors
-1 German Camp Commandant to outwit
-Some homemade pick axes
-A location drop soil & sand out of
-Some wooden beds.
My presentation DVD is already made and in the shops.
Cost £2 billion but by the time I give civil servants the run around over contract terms, £300 billion.
38 Tony Blair works hard for us, keeping watch day and night for our country’s interests.
It is wrong to represent Tony’s transatlantic trip as a freebie holiday in Florida. It is a need. A great statesmen and his family need their repose.
As Matthew JCG Partridge says, people will always “need” to travel to the US.
41 Gwynfa
PB.com already has a resident Pisstakerinchief and is not currently auditioning for the role.
Thank you.
Re 42, Maybe Peter but it made me smile
39
Thank you Squadron Leader!
Tory Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin and Michael Howard have openly backed James Gray in his reselection battle
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2007/01/james_gray_wins.html
I suppose it’s a boost for his chances.
RE 45 Andrea, Sorry, is this the Wiltshire sh1t?
46. Benedict, are you using the term as noun or as a adjective?
http://www.recessmonkey.com/2007/01/09/when-and-when-not-to-shit-in-parliament/
Re 47 Andrea, Well a bit of both realy, but more of an adjective
45: Excellent - Greatly increases the chances of a close and bitterly fought contest, with lots of recriminations whatever the result!
49.
The Libdem in you is gloating! 
31. “OT (but it’s a quiet day so I don’t feel so bad) - I feel embarrassed at asking this as I feel I should know but does anyone have an idea who is Jack McConnell’s heir apparent should he…ahem…trip onto his sword following a bad showing in May in Holyrood?”
Good question StephenB! Despite the possibility of Jack McConnell’s position being damaged by a bad result in May, I have not heard much discussion about what would happen should he resign voluntarily or be forced to stand down.
I am struggling to think who would stand out as his natural successor!
45.
“Michael Howard has openly backed James Gray”
What a Gray day! Actually if you read Howard’s ‘puff’ it is pretty faint praise, ignoring the elephant in the room.
51.
“is Jack McConnell’s heir apparent”
I thought at first this was the Oaten Question. Cameron’s certainly thinning seriously these days - is he anticipating a pile of James Gray about to fall on his head?
51 – I think George Foulkes – if he gets in on the Lothians list – could be in with a very good chance.
51. Chris, I vote for Wendy Alexander, so you can continue to confuse her with Nicola Sturgeon!
54. Max, have you decide your list vote?
54. I was playing with Cris A’s calculator yesterday and I think there’s the good chance that George Foulkes won’t make it.
Just guessing a potential scenario (not based on any inside info, just speculation)..Labour lose 2 FPTP seats: Edinburgh Central to Libdems and Linlithgow to SNP. That would leave the FPTP situation at Lab 4, LD 3, Con 1, SNP 1
List vote…Labour go down to 20.5 (-4%), SNP up at 20.2% (+4%), Libdems up a bit at 14% (+3%), the tories up a bit at 17% (+2%), Greens unchanged at 12% and SSP down to 3%, Margo McDonald down a bit at 8% (-2%).
That scenario would give 2 list seats to SNP, 2 to the tories, 2 to the Greens and 1 to McDonald. And so no Foulkes
How unlikely can it be, Max?
This Populus poll bit of fun any breakdown for regions/scotland/wales.
41. Can I ask your predictions for overall seat numbers and vote share in may.
51. I wondered how long it would be before Oaten’s name appeared on the thread given the description of Grey earlier!
36. You asked can Labour form a minority Govt this May. Not a chance in Cardiff. They have a hard enough time just one shy. They won’t even try it five or more short. However the are fed up with the Lib Dems, and the ice has thawed with Plaid since the deal over the budget. Especially but not exclusively if the Tories overtake Plaid in vote share expect a a chastened and weakened Plaid to accept Labour’s overtures for a coalition.
56-Put like that, vey possible!
re 56. I knew that calculator would provide endless fun. All we need now are some decent Scottish and Welsh polls so that we can predict what will happen in May.
62. Can you put it up again and try it for in WA elections.
61. Very possible to be unlikely?
62. Chris A, yes and there’re lots of possible scenarios to play with!
55. Andrea, I did think about Wendy Alexander because a few years ago I thought she would have been the obvious choice.
Can you imagine if it had been Wendy & Nicola in charge at Holyrood, just think of the amount of mix ups I would have got myself into.
65. Chris, if you can also find a LD and a Tory lady to confuse them with, it would be perfect! Scotland on Sunday: “Tory activist’s breakdown watching Holyrood debate”
It works for the Welsh Assembly as well. Just stop counting the list seats when you have enough to fill the vacancies. The method used is the same.
67. Yes I can’t find it. can you put you calculator up again with link. BTW how many list seats in the WA do I need count.
68. Look at “Forecaster of the Year averages for the “How long?” section” thread. He has linked at it in one of the comments of that thread
Wales regions have 4 list seats
66. Andrea, I feel like doing that some Thursday’s watching Holyrood questions.
69 Do I need to do something different as well eg “only” four parties in Wales. Scotland seems to have as many as Italy.
As it’s been a bit of a quiet day on here, as quiz question (I hope the relevance will become clearer when you see the answer). This is a quote taken from an autobiography I’m currenly reading. Which politician is this a pen portait of? I’ve deliberately made it tenseless so it could be either past or present.
“What sort of person is/was this man around whom so much controversy has raged? He is/was without question a fully-equipped politician and by any standard a first rank minister and administrator.”
“He is/was by no means easy to get to know. … To lure him into the smoking-room in the House was like catching the wariest bird, and any meetings arranged stilted and artificial, and he would escape at the first possible excuse.”
“When he did/does unbend he was/is a fascinating companion … but all this attractive and endearing side of his personality was/is almost deliberately concealed and the public only saw/see the forbidding exterior.”
Apologies for making the text clunkier than the original, but I’ve always thought parallels are useful in politics and comparing todays politicians with those of the past can be helpful. So who is it?
71.”Do I need to do something different as well eg “only” four parties in Wales”
I don’t think you’ve to do anything else different (apart naturally putting 0% in the SSP column)
“Scotland seems to have as many as Italy”
Ah, I think Italy can beat Scotland: IIRC something like 16 parties represented in Parliament!
72. Enoch Powell?
7 - Unbelievable …
72. Peter Mandelson?
74. Not bad, but not right.
76. Interesting, not close.
73. Do Populus have a regional breakdown.
Gordon Brown or Ted Heath?
79. I was hoping someone would mention those two - they immediately sprang to my mind when I read it.
I’ll give a clue - you’re right to be looking for a prime minister.
Harold Wilson is the next most obvious.
81. That would be my next choice of PM but would also wonder about Mrs Thatcher?
81. Interesting choice. Every other politician so far nominated had much bigger political flaws than Wilson (as does the right answer).
Another clue (quite a big one this as I’m off out soon and don’t want to keep you on tenterhooks too long) - the author of the quote also became PM but was writing there about his time as PPS to the person in question.
Alec Douglas-Home writing about Neville Chamberlain?
Baldwin writing about Bonar-Law
I’ve updated the calculator to allow for independent list candidates as well.
re 71,73. Don’t do anything different. Just put zeroes where necessary. Each region in Wales seems to elect 4 AMs. Just one caveat it doesn’t like ties in %of votes so if it gives strange results just add 0.01% to a party and it’ll behave again.
If it isnt after 1979 i havent got a notion. My history classes didnt stick…
86. Any link to the calculator? Sounds like fun (and my own is sitting in Excel hell
85. Refer you 58&60. Thanks.
Main article: Do we make too much of each minute swing?
Does a one-legged duck swim in circles?
On the puzzle, I think Gwynfa at 85 must be right.
DH, it might have been even trickier if you’d made it genderless as well as tenseless…
86. Thanks
89 http://www.cabg05071.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/ARADiv5/Scottish_election.xls
88. “If it isnt after 1979 i havent got a notion.” Yokel my pre 79′ memories of PM’s is very blue tinged.
I read in the BBC that the cost of Bread has doubled since 2000.
Previously it remained virtually unchanged since 1990.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/6240619.stm
Bread has always been a good indicator of inflation.
Life began with Maggie…..
94. Massive wheat crop failures.
Bread is incredibly cheap in this country compared to other countries. Never understood why!
Is that the Labour spin? Bread is rising so fast because it was previously cheap? Cheap bread has nothing to do with low inflation then?
Spin it how you like. The people notice the cost of bread - just like they did in the 70s.
84. Andrea gets it right (apologies for the delay).
The reason why I put it on is that Brown seems to fit the description quite well. The problem is, look at the company he’s keeping - the first three guesses and the right answer: Powell, Mandelson, Heath, Chamberlain. All successful in nominal terms - all at least cabinet ministers, two became PM - but none are really role-models for a young politician looking for inspiration and all had careers that went badly wrong. Perhaps Brown will be different, but there seems to be something about people who are a bit insular that doesn’t make them suited to the very top.
Mr Cameron adorns the front page of the local free paper here in Reading.
It reports that he met a group of pensioners and mothers “handpicked by the local Tory party”.
He explained his choice of Reading for his PR showing on inflation. “Reading is in the heart of the country and it’s very near where I was brought up (does he mean Eton?). It’s a good place to go to listen to families that are trying to do their best for themselves and their children.”
I usually have nice things to say about Dave, but this is just drivel.
One mother of three he met said “he listened and obviously is trying to collect ideas to find some working policies.”
Ha!
96&98. I thought that although bread has got more expensive it is expected that all foods will see a sharp increase this year, would that not indicate that inflation might be on the up?
98 - don’t care if it’s Labour spin. Don’t care for Labour or spin. But bread is still cheap and everybody can afford it. It’s also a bad example as the price of bread in recent years has been distorted by the ridiculous loss leading 7p loaves in supermarkets.
99. That is an interesting comment about Gordon Brown. I know being a tory will make any comments I have about him seem a bit partisan, but he just does not come across as a PM in waiting with the leadership qualities that some of his predecessors have showed.
He does not have that confidence and self belief that every other major politician has needed to win both a leadership and GE’s.
101. It certainly won’t help, but food is a much smaller proportion of household expenditure than it used to be (Snowflake could no doubt provide the figures).
What’s a little unusual about it is that over the last few years, inflation has come almost entirely from the service sector. Goods have been pretty static in price and in some cases have dropped. Fortunately, those commodities that have increased in price recently - fuel, electricity and gas being prominent - have dropped on the wholesale markets, which should feed through to the retail sector and offset increases in other areas such as food. That said, there is no guarentee as it’s just a fortuitous combination and should supplies be threatened from Iraq, Iran, Russia, the Gulf of Mexico or West Africa, prices will soon increase in those areas again.
price of bread in
1990 50p
2000 52p
2007 94p
The CAP at work I suspect more than anything else. We can’t buy our wheat on the world market and assist growth in developing economies. Inflation never went away it just popped up elsewhere - ie asset price bubbles all over the place (look at the art market). The bad joke that’s the CPI is simply being noticed by people. As we have a fiat money system whose whole edifice relies on confidence I would think the politically inspired measures of inflation that remove any items that might keep going up in price (housing costs, local taxes etc) might have to go. Anyone remember the tax and prices index, was going to be the preferred measure for Mrs T until it shot above the RPI. Suddenly it turned into ‘a distorted measure’. Actually it was a good idea and they should have stuck with it, or something similar
92. Do you really feel the It Govt could be felled this yeare. FWIW they will last the year I think for one reason only SB has to get them out this year or be replaced by Fini, Casini or AN other. At the least fear of Silvio will make them hang together. Its what drives RP too I reckon. Once he’s seen him off don’t think he’ll care any more and then it (the Govt)will go. Albeit long before 2011.
105. A very good post containing a lot of sense.
When people complain how much prices are going up they tend to forget about the reducing price of electrical goods, telephone calls, clothing.
And of course, increasing house prices are a good thing, aren’t they?
106. I think the government will run, at least, until spring. Then there’ll be local elections and maybe the result can shake up things a bit. Considering the majority at the Senate, it’s possible that the government can find itself in troubles just because a couple of Senators defect to CR
108. SBS, but food is essential and these increases will be felt by many households on tight budgets which are already being squeezed by fuel, energy and council tax increases.
Wheat crop failures…..
105 No not the CAP. If it is to do with the price of what then the cause will be the draught in Australia - but I suspect the cost of wheat is a small part of the cost of bread.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6042050.stm
Sorry - price of wheat, not the price of what :lol:.
109. Can’t the Govt appint Life senators like here to bail them out. In any case SB can’t force them out unless he controls the lower house right. True he can block them on everything but all they have to do is send measures he can’t block because of the public. They’re hardly likely to kill themselves by going early, and with the budget passed they’re safe until the end of the year surely. That was SB’s great opportunity I think. From here it only gets progressively harder for him.
114.”Can’t the Govt appint Life senators like here to bail them out”
Life Senators are appointed by the President of the Republic and not the government. CR is already complaining about the existing ones, I don’t think that appointing new CL supporting Life Senators will go down very well with CR (the President would probably try to be super partes)
“any case SB can’t force them out unless he controls the lower house right. True he can block them on everything but all they have to do is send measures he can’t block because of the public”
well, if they lose control of the Senate, CR can send them home as soon as they like. It’s enough to table a motion of confidence and if the government loses it at the Senate, it’s out of job.
“!They’re hardly likely to kill themselves by going early, and with the budget passed they’re safe until the end of the year surely. That was SB’s great opportunity I think”
The budget was certainly a “hot” issue and so a
I think that if they pass the spring, they can reach the end of the 2007 (considering then they go on holiday and be back in October)
Btw, if the government falls, it doesn’t necessarily mean new elections will take place immediately. Other solutions can be tried (especially if a new electoral law should be passed as they’re talking now)
113. What futures are at a historic high I’ll have you know.
116 i’ll phone my broker
105. The tax and price index still exists. In November it was up 3.8% yoy, more than a full percentage point above the official CPI increase, and the highest increase since August 2003. With wages rising just a touch above 4% yoy, real take home pay is essentially stagnant.
A packet of mince from Sainsburys was 69p less than 3 years ago, now it’s £1.10. More than 60% increase.
119. In my day, tha’ could get two pair o’ boots, a ‘and made suit and a trilby, ride the bus to Blackpool, spend ‘t weekend there, go on a Carribean cruise all expenses paid an’ still ‘ave change from a farthing.
Tony Benn on the need for a Labour leadership contest in the Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1985832,00.html
118 - the only reason take home pay is rising as much as 4% is that the top 5% or so of earners are doing very nicely indeed - massive city bonuses skew the figures up hugely. Now, I don’t begrudge them that, but it does rather mask the fact the for the bottom 95% or so wages are fairly static in absolute terms and considerably below the rate of inflation.
Back on thread - I agree entirely. Almost no-one changes their minds. Demographics is a more important factor in deciding elections. (But this is a drum I’ve banged often in the past, so I’ll leave it there.)
do you ever ask the pllsters how much govt business they get put their way and how they prevent this from influencing the methodology of compiling polls?