A View from inside by “Red Sky” - our mystery MP
January 22nd, 2007Brief preface - I am a Labour MP who prefers to post occasionally and anonymously, as it gives me the opportunity to be more outspoken than Nick Palmer, Stewart Jackson and others can be.
First the leadership election. Everyone in the PLP now agrees that it’ll be Gordon unless he falls under a bus. Consequently, people aren’t as interested as they used to be in whether there will be a contest or not. The best outcome for him would be a McDonnell candidacy that gets squashed like a bug (less than 15%): Brown then has a great mandate and can incidentally show that the party isn’t interested in going back to the 80s.
Failing that, a straightforward endorsement by 85-90%+ would be OK. A more successful McDonnell candidacy (25%+) or a low return rate in an endorsement vote would be mildly embarrassing, but there is no big downside with any imaginable result.
What about a serious challenge? Doesn’t look likely. Or a simple coronation without an endorsement ballot? Probably not either: as someone said, it would leave Gordon “twiddling his thumbs” while the deputy candidates slugged it out. He’ll want to campaign for a proper endorsement. When? Almost certainly June.
The deputy contest is, of course, far more uncertain. There are several subcontests. Johnson, Blears and Harman are in the same ‘don’t rock the boat’ market, with Blears (if she stands) and Harman having a subcontest for those who feel gender balance is essential. Hain and Benn are in the same ‘moderate left’ area, dropping regular hints that they are a bit more radical than the current leadership without actually jumping ship.
Hain is stronger on green issues (and won anti-nuclear voters by saying early on that there would be no nuclear power stations in Ulster) but Benn scores with the party’s many overseas development supporters, and his name counts for something too. Interestingly, Hain has been moving left, notably urging the scrapping of the expensive union political fund ballots (which always produce a whopping yes vote), while Benn has been moving right, with an outspoken defence of the Iraq action. Jack Straw seems to have lost interest.
Cruddas and Corbyn are both fishing in the anti-establishment pool. Corbyn is among the traditional left-wingers who hadn’t thought Cruddas was all that left-wing till recently and would like to have a standard-bearer for the True Faith, but he won’t get 44 signatures, and it’s not certain that Cruddas will either.
Remember, though, that party rules allow MPs to nominate more than one candidate, so people can please more than one camp “in the interest of giving members a choice”, and I reckon Cruddas will scramble onto the ballot in the end.
Harman is the candidate who is running hardest at the moment. She’s got a speaking tour in CLPs round the country, a website launch next week, and she’s written to every Labour MP in marginal seats offering to come and speak for them. She’s got commitments from many of the women members of the PLP, though not all (Angela Eagle is a strong Harriet fan, but her twin Maria is a Hain backer) and with Johnson making quiet progress among the serious loyalists, my guess is that Blears would find it difficult to beat them.
Whoever emerges from each group (not least by actually getting on the ballot) will tend to get the support of the others from that group if they’ve managed to avoid it turning nasty (e.g. many Benn and Hain supporters have said openly that they will make the other their second preference).
Cruddas has the big advantage that he’s the only candidate who can openly oppose current policy (as he’s not in the Cabinet).
Bottom line? Cruddas should do pretty well, but is very unlikely to win. The hardcore loyalist vote should see Johnson in the final, probably against either Benn or Hain, who would probably then have an edge. But all three, and Harman, are in with a shout, and any clear preference in national polls could change the picture. Gordon would have no problem working with any of them, and the general public won’t much care, but the choice will tell us something useful about the membership’s priorities.
Red Sky - a mystery Labour MP
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Interesting piece
“Hain and Benn are in the same ‘moderate left’ area, dropping regular hints that they are a bit more radical than the current leadership without actually jumping ship”
what are those hints by Benn? As you noted later in the piece it seems he’s moving on the right.
“but he won’t get 44 signatures, and it’s not certain that Cruddas will either”
I think that he said in an interview with Evening Standard that he already has the 44 signatures.
Red Sky, all very interesting but nothing any Journo or even those who keep an eye on these things does not already know or think. Can you give us anything more than just what is already in the public domain, or is your piece just to clarify the situation?
Interesting article Red Sky including the stuff on the unions. You haven’t said you you’re backing if anyone yet, which is fairly important for posters to understand where you’re coming from.
From a betting perspective Alan Johnson at 6s with Hills is the real current value in my book. I’ve got a very big betting slip with Cruddas’ name on, so happy there too (plus a small 50/1 saver on Blears). One thing that I’m sure about though is that with up to 6 months to go, all manner of things could yet happen.
Good post, mystery MP. Interesting that Straw has lost interest…perhaps he has already been offered chancellor by GB??
Am very disturbed about the proposal to dump the union political fund ballot because of the expense, GE’s are expensive perhaps we should dump those to! Union members have the right to decide whether their union should continue to support the Labour party, or any other party, or no party. Think Benn is a good bet for the deputy leader, new generation, untainted, (yet) go for it.
re Benedict from 211. Yes indeed if you don’t want to serve anyone then you shouldn’t have to give a reason. I believe that would still be the case, but the law should not enshrine that it’s perfectly legal to discriminate against one group in society. This whole argument is got up artificially by the [non-]Christian right who seem to think that if you give 2 gay people 2 single rooms they’ll stay in them all night and not get up to anything. These people have a blind prejudice informed by their religion and morals and conscience have nothing to do with it. They are plain wrong just as those Christians who had a bible-given right to practice slavery were wrong.
What a sad commentary on NuLab.
Brown, who has never had the balls to oppose Blair, is returned
almost unopposed by a party that doesn’t have the balls to, at least, give Brown a run for ‘our’ money.
Most of the candidates for the deputy leadership post wouldn’t make it into The Celebrity Big Brother house, come to think of it neither would Gordon Brown.
7. ‘Most of the candidates for the deputy leadership post wouldn’t make it into The Celebrity Big Brother house, come to think of it neither would Gordon Brown.’
Perhaps Rula Lenska should declare her candidacy…
Interesting piece - but are you really an MP?
For example, ‘those in the know’ including those that read the Guardian or watch Sky news, will know that Cruddas already has the backing of 44 MPs, so will not need to do any scrambling to get on to the ballot.
Second - a cursory reading of the rule book (or a quick call to the party or your whip) will tell you that MPs are NOT allowed to nominate more than one person.
Third, if Harman is “running hardest”, what does that mean about Hain who has also written to every Labour MP, who is also doing a tour of CLPs, and who has organised meetings with more trade unionists than Harman has met in her life (excluding family members). How does it explain that Cruddas has had a website for months, written to all Labour MPs (twice), councillors and CLP secretaries? (It is also worth mentioning is that HH’s website launch was last week, not next week as you have suggested).
Your analysis is very interesting but has several serious factual inaccuracies. I would recommend other readers take this piece with a pinch of salt to say the least.
9. Very interesting.
“my guess is that Blears would find it difficult to beat them. ”
is there a risk that not entering the race soon can damage her chances allowing other contenders to establish themself and getting some support that could have been won by her?
And if she wants to run, does she have to wait until the end of her selection process? Or can she do it even if the process hasn’t finished? What would be preferable?
9.”Second - a cursory reading of the rule book (or a quick call to the party or your whip) will tell you that MPs are NOT allowed to nominate more than one person”
Actually Nick Palmer MP posting her some months ago also said that the rulebook doesn’t forbid from signing more than one candidate’s nomination papers.
It seems that there’s quite a confusion about this matter
9. MPs can be out of frighfully out of touch too Thomas, so mistakes may be genuine. I was with one MP before Christmas who was adament that John McDonnell was running for Deputy and not leader! I argued with him for several minutes over this before giving up. The fact that these people have votes weighted to about 700 times that of the ordinary member frightens me a bit.
Mike can you confirm that Red Sky is an MP or a researcher with a nice email address!
re 9. I can confirm that Red Sky is a Labour MP. I would not have published the piece under this description unless I knew that it was correct.
12. posting here, not posting her!
“Second - a cursory reading of the rule book (or a quick call to the party or your whip) will tell you that MPs are NOT allowed to nominate more than one person.”
To be entirely accurate - the Rulebook does not give a ruling either way on this, but it is almost certain that the NEC Guidance will not allow MPs to nominate more than one candidate. I believe that was the rule in 1994, and it’s my understanding that the NEC intend that to do the same now.
Broadly though I agree with Thomas - several of the things that Red Sky says suggest that they aren’t quite as in touch with the deputy race in particular as they suggest.
Thomas Have you got chapter and verse on your point about no double endorsements? I’m not querying you but since there’s a straightforward difference of view on a question of fact it would be interesting to clarify this. Second, the BBC website( last august) stated that since 12.5% of Labour MPs is 44.25 it’s not clear whether the requirement is for 44 or 45 MPs. In other words will the NEC round up or down? Has this point been clarified?
Rulebook is very vague but the chances of the NEC overturning the precedents of erm *EVERY LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST IN HISTORY* and allowing signing multiple nomination forms is very, very slim.
17 - The NEC has decided 44 nomination plus the candidate themselves (so actually 45).
17. I think the NEC clarified that it would be 44 nominations not including the candidate themselves.
19. You beat me to it pregethwr. 1-1.
Has there been much discussion on whether the Deputy Leader will become Deputy Prime Minister? Clearly not, if Cruddas or Harman (who isn’t in the Cabinet) are chosen, and there must surely be considerable doubt about Benn, Hain, and Johnson, none of whom are yet Big Beasts (unlike Prezza back in 1994). And since the DPM is not a constitutional post anyway, then Red Sky’s relaxed view about whoever wins makes sense. “Calm down, dears, it’s only a Deputy Leadership campaign”.
I think I’m correct - Andrea will doubtless confirm/repudiate - that the Deputy Leadership was only created in the early 1950s (52?) as a consolation when Herbert Morrison was unceremoniously booted off the NEC by the Bevanites.
22 - No it has always existed, but was of course Deputy Chairman of the PLP until 1970.
Deputy leaders have done a variety of jobs, not necessarily DPM. You are right that it was added to the NEC in the 50s to hold back the Bevanites.
23 - Thanks. Ah, that’s it.
Ahh… Here’s a great competition.. Name your favourite deputy leader of the Labour Party and give reasons.
I’ll start with Jim Griffiths, ‘55-’59. Was a real miner and trade union leader. Only became an MP at 45. Founded the modern social security system. The only “right-winger” who could beat Bevan for Deputy Leader (and thus ensure Bevanites followed a more moderate path in the fifties). Became First Secretary of State for Wales in 1964. Didn’t accept a peerage.
Many thanks for the article red Sky.
I suspect the unions will extract a price, and that price may well damage Labour during an election.
How seriously do people take the “Must have a woman deputy” thing.
BTW, anyone wondering about Conservative party policy, we have some now on the NHS, more details here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
O/T - Some possible political fallout in Burnley.
Whilst the Lim Dems publicly claim that no platform should be given to the BNP and no councillors should work with them, when it comes to council meetings they are singing a different tune.
When a vacancy came up for an important committee, the Lim Dems had a choice between a Labour candidate and a BNP candidate. Guess who they voted for.
http://www.burnleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=131&ArticleID=1942041
http://www.burnleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=131&ArticleID=1957030
http://www.burnleytoday.co.uk/ViewArticle2.aspx?SectionID=131&ArticleID=1980239
BB
27. How amusing….first Calder Valley, now Burnley….
RE 28 Yellow Peril, Don’t suppose you have a link for that?
If the general consensus is that the deputy leadership is not an office of any great value in its own right, doesn’t necessarily command a cabinet position and certainly not the automatic right to be DPM, why is the timing of the handover of prime ministerial power dependent upon the conclusion of that election, if GB does turn out to be the only candidate for the leadership?
It possibly gives him the minor advantage of having a little more scope for a reshuffle on taking over, but at the expense of the least dynamic start to a premiership in decades.
The point about Hain saying that there would be no nuclear power stations in Northern Ireland is a bit of a red herring, as there has been a longstanding (if unwritten) agreement with the Republic on this.
30. because despite the limits of the role, it is important. Not de jure, but certainly de facto. We’re talking about a race featuring four or five leading cabinet members (and others), each of whom will expect their power in the party to be reflected in their eventual position- the winner, the just pipped runner up, to the possibly humiliated.
To take it to an extreme, imagine appointing your shiny new foriegn secretary, and discovering a month later that they were less popular than Jeremy Corbyn.
Second, the democratic and broad nature of the election gives the role a special place in UK politics.
Since 83, when it became a post elected by the whole party rather than elected by PLP it’s the only non-leadership job in British politics elected by the whole membership of a party*.
The winner becomes a partner in leadership in a much more significant way than any other figure in British politics. Healey, Hattersley, Beckett and Prescott have all been significant figures in Labour politics, way beyond the Tory and LD equivalents.
So while it doesn’t have any constitutional power, it’s actual power is pretty great.
*I’m defining members as including Unions and afilliates in labour terms- otherwise the const delegates on the NEC would also qualify.
32. Actually, now I think about it, doesn’t the LD party President have a similar all-members election- and therefore has to be handled with some respect and deference- until they run for the leadership and make a total idiot of themselves of course.
Thanks for that useful and sensible summary, Red Sky.
Is there any chance you could use your influence to persuade Betfair to open a Deputy Leader market? They just don’t listen to us poor punters.
By the way Straw will either stay put or go back to the Foreign Office.
34. Tell me about it, hedging against Hain on the straight bet market was pretty lame.
Brummie Bounder: you post those links but fail to mention that they say that the choice was between Labour and BNP for the single position and Labour were already overrepresented on the committee. Most Councils have a requirement for political balance on committees - it’s that little principle, um what’s it called?… Oh yeh, democracy. But then, I dont expect you wanted the people to know that really, did you…
25 - Good game, and you have gone for a very strong candidate.
George Brown must have given more anecdotes to the movement than any other, and Denis Healey’s victory was the most significant.
But surely Attlee’s backseat driving from 1932-5 is the biggest impact the role has had?
Red Sky - Are you sure Gordon isn’t going to succumb to Mandelson / Campbell dirty tricks ? There is a lot of time until June, and lots of stuff to come out of the woodwork.
Yokel - see previous thread for comments on tennis and Detroit City. (Off Thread comments sneak under Mike’s radar when you tack them onto an earlier thread.
)
30. “Imagine appointing your shiny new foreign secretary, and discovering a month later that they were less popular than Jeremy Corbyn”. Without being unduly unfair to our current foreign secretary, I wouldn’t fancy her chances in a contest against Corbyn!
Seriously though. If Brown has to wait six weeks or more having already been effectively elected, it will remove whatever chance remains of a dynamic change of leadership simply because of the timescale as the leadership drifts from the one to the other.
As for the post-80 deputy leaders, I think the record’s mixed. Some have been major figures, others less so. Prescott has become less significant as time has gone on, to the point where he’d now be an embarrassment were he not hidden away so well. Brown has been the real number 2 power since day 1 - a fact that Prescott was astute enough to understand. As to how they compare with their Tory equivalents - again, mixed. Who remembers that Peter Lilley was deputy leader? But by the same token, can it seriously be argued that Whitelaw and Heseltine were not serious political heavyweights in their time?
Anyway, returning to my point, I can’t see any circumstance in which Brown and/or Labour benefits from an uncontested leadership - which is why I don’t think it will happen.
32 - I take your point…but think of Morrison/Attlee, Bevan/Gaitskell, Brown/Wilson (particularly 64-66), Foot/Callaghan as pivotal partnerships and this when the PLP was the selectorate. All these were arguably stronger influences than Hattersley with Kinnock or Beckett with Smith
Btw, Red Sky, we could smoke out your identity easily were we so minded. We’d just ask Roger to keep guessing until only one name remained.
MBoy The very fact that these people have been elected under the BNP banner should make them not votable for by any Liberal Democrats. This is, frankly, the thin end of a very ugly wedge.
Re 43, Peter
44. Funny how liberal and democratic some Liberal Democrats can get when democracy delivers a verdict they don’t like! Typical PC tolerance - I’ll tolerate anything I agree with, and you’ll bl**dy well tolerate it, too!
43, Peter
:)
Re: M Boy
If the Liberal Democrats had a policy of voting for the best person (no matter what party they belong to) no-one would complain.
The problem here is not that they voted for the BNP candidate, the problem is hypocrisy. Saying one thing in public and doing another in council meetings.
BB
I think Red Sky is mistaken in saying that MPs can endorse two candidates, though I used to think so too. I’m a bit wary of claims by candidates that they have 44 nominations in the bag unless they’re willing to publish them, though I’ve been confident enough over Peter Hain to risk £100 to the RNLI in my bet with HenryG. I think Jon Cruddas ought to be able to get 44 too, though, and Alan Johnson - I am not too sure about anyone else.
The T&G and Amicus are currently sounding out their MPs: it’ll be a surprise if they don’t endorse Brown + Cruddas, though perhaps with pleasant comments on some of the others. They won’t finally decide until they know who is on the ballot.
A note on the procedures: all three sections will vote at the same time, of course. The union members’ votes will go to an independent scrutineer, who will report the result for each union to the union to pass on to the party.
I know Mike won’t say, but my guess is Red Sky is Stephen Pound MP
Is it Red Sky at night Shepherds delight or Red Sky in the morning, Shepherds warning? I suspect another ruse, possibly TB himself!
Re: Lib Dems/BNP stuff- in short don’t believe all you read.
The stuff published here about the Lib Dems in Calderdale is based on a piece in the local rag which was inaccurate and has now been subject to a printed correction. It may even be actionable to repeat a story that has been corrected as though it was still accurate- it was not accurate when published and is not now.
I can check, but Burnley case looks pretty much like another smear and if, as I suspect, it is nothing more than that-then I wonder if that rag may be forced to publish corrections too.
As my Gran used to say Red Sky at Night,Angel Delight…Red Sky in the Morning, Angel Delight. She wasn’t really with it towards the end but she certainly knew how to whip up a good dessert.
Re 52, Cicero, surely if they print a corection they would also correct the online edition?
41. I agree that the wait would be odd, though there’s no real reason why it has to lead to a slow start. The Americans wait six weeks between election day and inauguration after all.
Personally I think what will be odd about it will be the air of unreality - the Leader effectively elected, but the “real action” being in the second tier race. I think that would feel very odd, which is why I’d prefer a real contest that Brown will win handily.
On the Deputy leadership more generally, Many of the Deputies pre-80 were important figures, but there’s also Ted Short or George Brown post resignation!
My argument is not that the post 80 Deputies are more significant politicians, but that their election gives them an authority in the party that is very real. If John Prescott had only been elected by the PLP in 1994, would his position today be the same?
Another good example is the daddy of them all, Healey vs Benn. Benn certainly saw the nature of the election as being as significant as the post itself. If he had won, his authority in the party would have been transformed in a way unthinkable if it had been an PLP only election. Indeed, in one sense the CLPD were quite right in their argument that reform would give the party leadership real authority, it’s just that they didn’t expect to lose and lose again in those elections.
I established that the Lib Dem rules allowed the endorsement of more than one candidate, but I would not think that this is a general principle.
zzzzz deputy leader of the opposition for 10 years, nice touch with the “opposes current policy cos not in the cabinet” what a bunch of cowards. Nobody believes in the war but we all want a top job = 130 dead soldiers. Quality, they will be lucky to come 3rd
44/46. Tim13/David Herdson. Tim’s argument and David’s counter-argument is more or less like what it’s happening in the EU Parliament regarding the possibility of the new far right group getting committee office positions (vice-presidents and similar stuff)
50 am Spartacus!
52. I know nothing about the ‘Calderdale story’ you mention.
The Burnley situation I’ve linked to is not a ‘newspaper story’. It’s Letters to the Editor from a Labour councillor and a reply from the Lib Dem in question.
BB
59 That’s supposed to be .
Wasn’t even funny the first time.
I’ll get me coat.
Re 56, John, I see from Guido’s blog that you are in court with a Judicial review.
What is that about?
I give up.
Re 63, No Peter I’ll give up
What you meant to say is:
I’m Spartacus!
Tim13: I disagree. The whole point of democracy is that the vote of a racist counts for the same as a vote of a saint. If you dont believe that then you dont believe in democracy. That’s not a problem in itself - lots of people dont believe in democracy for lots of good reasons (read Aristotle and Plato, for e.g.), but dont pretend you are a democratic believer and then act anti-democratically…that’s just hyprocrisy.
The point is that most Councils have rules about political balance on committees, for good reasons. Not only that, but I am of the opinion that victimising the BNP - whether their voters, candidates or elected politicians - just makes martyrs of them; gets them extra publicity; makes the nonsense they peddle about being “oppressed white people” into truths; and prevents them from making fools of themselves, which they generally do in the end anyway.
Fascinating analysis of the Deputy Leadership election, and definitely well worth publishing here, but I can’t help but think that Red Sky (any relation of Red Eye?) is looking at things from a slightly Westminster-centric perspective. Yes, it is true that Alan Johnson has a lot of support among the MPs, and that Jon Cruddas has relatively little. But get out there in the country and you will find that situation is moreorless exactly reversed.
In particular, I think Red Sky is wrong to assume that Cruddas’s CLP constituency has largely left the party. By my reckoning, he and Hilary Benn have by far the most support of all the candidates among the party membership.
My reading of the election is that Johnson and Benn are leading the way among MPs, Hain and Cruddas among the unions, and Benn and Cruddas among the members. That would seem to me to point to a Benn - Cruddas run-off.
64 I tried to do italics. It will be some time before I try again.
66 Agreed, Paul - It’s Benn-Cruddas, or Cruddas-Benn.
Now which bookie will offer us odds for the reverse forecast?
63. Cheer up. Look on the bright side of life
re 51. I can confirm that Red Sky is not Tony Blair.
MBoy
Can agree with most of this. Clearly political balance for an established political group, but where there is a choice of person to vote for (and you may decide that abstention is the right course if neither / none of the candidates is up to it), you should certainly, as a Lib Dem (with the principles outlined in the constitution) not vote for a candidate who has endorsed the values of the BNP. I know this can get more complicated, because some people join the BNP not realising how unacceptable their fundamental views are, and our two Lib Dems may be hoping to detach someone from the clutches of a racist organisation (?)
David Herdson
Thought your post very partisan, and wonder whether you would have said the same had I posted as a Tory, as I think some Tories on here might have? I thought you were above resort to simplistic insults like “PC”!
70. Perhaps it’s ReId Sky.
71. Have there ever been any defections from the BNP to the Lib Dems?
71. Tim, I’ve got no time for the BNP and have faced a significant challenge from them the last two times I’ve stood for council, so I know what they’re like. Had a Tory posted the same thing, I probably wouldn’t have written my comment in the same way, not least as it wouldn’t have made that much sense, but I have argued on here for months that the BNP are a legitimate, recognised political party and the votes they get are legitimate votes and their policies don’t change that. I’ve argued that point against people from various centre-right and centre-left pursuasions, sometimes with success, sometimes not. To treat them differently, to ignore and marginalise them (and, by extension, those who voted for them) only serves to further their campaign, as MBoy says.
The PC crack was a cheap shot, but an easy one. And anyway, I don’t think it was the opponents of political correctness that coined the term ‘PC’. But then all PC terms have an inherant limited life expectancy.
“Everyone in the PLP now agrees that it’ll be Gordon unless he falls under a bus.”
Please note the recent surge in Labour MPs applying to train as London bus divers!
Re 65, Mboy, I agree with what you say there. I have always despised the “no platform” argument you used to get at Student Union.
That said it does seem to go against the policy of never voting for or co operating with the BNP.
62: ” I see from Guido’s blog that you are in court with a Judicial review.”
Ah, thats why its off-line……
Interesting spin on this, downplays Cruddas heavily (although I must confess an interest).
Cruddas has the 44 sorted. He should also get the T&G and Amicus votes. This is insider knowledge folks.
Moreover, ‘anti-establishment’? Like Amicus!?
Please!
Cruddas’s ‘big advantage’ mooted above isn’t one really. It means that he’s tested in ways that they are not. Moreover, until the race really hots up, the others will be claiming that this isn’t about policy, and once it does, they’ll be claiming making policy the agenda at the expense of structures, which is Cruddas’s selling point.
Would ‘red sky’ be someone with connections to Harriet Harman by any chance? ;o)
78.
Red Sky Inside,
Payments to Hide!
Quiet here tonight!
(Still I have things to write for my blog.)
What Blog is that, Benedict?
‘Hain has been moving left, notably urging the scrapping of the expensive union political fund ballots’
Hain certainly moved a lot over the Iraq war,happy to stay in the cabinet for the past 3 years but as soon as his boss is leaving he does a complete U turn as per his article in the New Stateman last week.
Certainly one of the most insincere,opportunist politicians currently at Westminster.
Have we had any success in getting a Deputy Leader market opened anywhere yet. Betfair were still holding out last time I called them.
interesting Ch4 programme about new Lab’s addiction to gambling. Maybe that’s why it’s quiet in here surely two of our favourite topics
If anyone is interested I have just put a tracker showing French polls since November on my blog at
http://sportinvestor.wordpress.com/2007/01/22/french-election-2007-sarkozy-gains-bounce-from-slick-launch/
Sarkozy seems to have acheived a decent bounce from his good launch last week but is still backable at 2.16. This could be a very close, in and out election campaign for political bettors. Remember how many times we had flip flopping favourites in the US 2000 campaign? Maybe some shrewd backing and laying might pay in France this year. Should be fascinating anyhow.
70. Since Mike Smithson is based in Bedford, I can only presume that “Red Sky” is none other than the human dynamo Patrick Hall.
Been watching Panorama on the Polonium Poisoning. Apparently Putin did it. What a surprise.
Ooops…shoudln’t have said that.
Gulp.
If I disappear suddenly, make sure Yokel gets my Cruddas betting slip.
83 No, Disraeli, we have not had any sodding success with Betfair. It seems they are perfectly happy to run a Super Casino Market which has matched a grand total of £7,843 since it was opened rather than a Deputy Leader market which would take that and more in its first week.
They also have the cheek to put the Casino market under the heading of Politics. I suppose that helps their case when they tell us there’s no interest in Politics markets.
Btw, the news coverage on the Licence, such as it is and there is very little of it indeed, is pretty uniformly of the opinion that it’s a close thing between The Dome and Blackpool. Despite this, there was a plunge on Blackpool a few days ago and it now trades at 1.1. Reckon somebody knows something?
87. What you want me to do with thar Cruddas betting slip?
89 Auction it on ebay.
86. I think Red Sky is Julie Morgan.
88. The Casino Market is a strange one. Not sure what Betfair were thinking about with that one.
As of this afternoon there was still nothing matched on the Betfair market for the Welsh Assembly elections. I guess Labour are almost guaranteed to be the largest party, which doesnt make for a great market. Only £50 or so traded on Scotland.
91 So why, Ian, do they put up these ridiculous markets in which nobody bets whilst ignoring The Deputy Leadership, for which there is a ready market?
Btw, I just emailed you about my dog which runs tomorrow at the Stow - Race 11.
92.”about my dog which runs tomorrow at the Stow - Race 11″
good luck to your dog!
91. Why do you think it’s Julie Morgan?
92. God knows what they are playing at. I did email Betfair a couple of times about a Deputy market - but still nothing. Had a few quid on Cruddas at decent odds, and wouldnt mind laying it off!
Have replied to your mail.
93 Thanks Andrea. If you can find a local bookie to take the bet, have a few Euros on it. It’s got a decent chance.
96 - Which dog is yours Peter? (or is it obvious if I bother to look at the race card?)
Having just seen Hain on the News, surely he will haemorrhage votes if he keeps copying Blair’s distinctive hand gestures. It’s bad enough when Blair does his pointy finger thing but to see Hain do it is truly sick making. My vote is now going to Cruddas or Johnson rather than not being used and I suggest any other tory or Lib dem voter with a vote to do the same. Hain must be stopped!
Dawn Purvis chosen to replace David Ervine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6289111.stm
97 Lennon
Mighty Fella (trap 4). He’s a quick starter and should be ahead at the first bend. The danger is trap 1 which has got the class and finishes strongly.
I feel a forecast coming on.
Don’t you just love the Lab/Libdem coalition at Holyrood, surprised nobody else noticed this little gem today.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6286429.stm
RE 81, Robin Wiggs, this one
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
Though I am still *cough* writing!
Has “Red Sky” not heard whispers that John Reid may give Gordon Brown a run for his money.
Although my information has come from reliable sources that I can only describe as “Blue Sky”
The rumour -mill is working overtime right now.
100 - with those comments a forecast definately seems the way to go… although I’m always highly sceptical of the dogs to be honest. (Partly due to lack of knowledge and the somewhat dodgy reputation ;-))
Re 87, Peter, saw that too. Apparently 4 billion Bq of radiation! (that is on hell of a lot of radiation!) but equates to 27 millionths of a gram.
98. I have to admit I expect Hain to hang himself on his current form. He’s coming across as about as opportunist and unprincipled as they come and pretty unsophisticated about it to boot.
Having said that I’m not in the Labour Party and he has his supporters but I get the feeling all is not well there at camp Hain right now.
99. Purvis is the only person with a fighting chance of retaining the PUP the East Belfast seat come election time, but I doubt she will (unless there’s a strong Ervine memorial vote) though she should poll ok. Another PUP member has, surprisingly, been allowed to co-opt onto Ervine’s seat in Belfast City Council.
Ervine is missed already, even though I wouldnt quite join in the fawning eulogies that followed his death. I would have liked to have seen him front up on the Police Obudsmans report today.
100. Good luck with the dog Peter, the greyhounds can be more frustrating than the horses which is why I’ve never touched them at all. Having said that your interest in what I assume is a reverse forecast (they do offer them on the greyhounds dont they?) tells me you’ve done your research rightly. I always pay attention when a serious punter considers such a bet.
In order to get something going on Ebay for your Cruddas ticket I’ve took a bit of license, I’ve called it a ‘UK government linked futures bond certificate’ with huge potential….
Andrea any comment on ITV’s allegations that Romano Prodi is a Russian agent, according to Alexander Litvenko?
Link to follow
http://www.itv.com/news/index_de20839cb1d32bc0891bbbd13c6a4c1e.html
If that works (Never been a techie)
“Hain and Benn are in the same ‘moderate left’ area, dropping regular hints that they are a bit more radical than the current leadership without actually jumping ship”
…what are those hints by Benn? by Andrea January 22nd, 2007 at 2:11 pm
He told the IMF recently the UK would not divvy up it’s share (£50m) unless they relaxed their pro-privatisation economic reforms.
104 Lennon
My experience of the dogs (and horses) is that most of the fiddling goes on at the lower levels. Walthamstow is a premier track and the better races there would be hard to fix even if you wanted to. Occasionally the trainer will tell us something that gives us a bit of an edge but it hardly amounts to insider trading.
Usually he doesn’t know any better than us.
I would just like to complain about Red Sky’s name. I used to be ‘I hate DC’, but was forced to drop this epithet, despite my name really being Ian Hately Dunn-Campbell. Without my monika my life on here really became pointless, as the whole point of my existence was to pillory the ludicrously lightweight existence of the so called leader of the Conservative Party.
So why was I banned? For ‘politically motivated’ names. What then is ‘Red Sky’ if not a politically motivated name? Just because he can claim parliamentary privilege, surely the powers that be can see that there should not be one rule for one and one for another? Unless this is another political establishment in this blessed land where getting your title is not necessarily a process based on a level playing field
itv news showed a screen shot of the guardian front page that included a headline about an icm poll, and i think “blair effect hurting labour”. nothing referred to in their brief “paper review” - anybody have any sources at icm or guardian?
Fascinating analysis of the Deputy Leadership election, and definitely well worth publishing here, but I can’t help but think that Red Sky (any relation of Red Eye?) is looking at things from a slightly Westminster-centric perspective. Yes, it is true that Alan Johnson has a lot of support among the MPs, and that Jon Cruddas has relatively little. But get out there in the country and you will find that situation is moreorless exactly reversed.
In particular, I think Red Sky is wrong to assume that Cruddas’s CLP constituency has largely left the party. By my reckoning, he and Hilary Benn have by far the most support of all the candidates among the party membership.
My reading of the election is that Johnson and Benn are leading the way among MPs, Hain and Cruddas among the unions, and Benn and Cruddas among the members. That would seem to me to point to a Benn - Cruddas run-off.
by Paul Linford January 22nd, 2007 at 5:52 pm
I agree. NuLab MP’s will back Benn. The rest have history/baggage. This election will be won by the candidate most like to renew the party. Benn will walk the CLP and Union vote
Paging Benedict White. Paging Benedict White. I can’t find any links to your blogs in comments posted in the last hour. Are you still there and ok?
107. Prodi is off to Moscow tomorrow, funnily enough.
106 Yokel
The dogs is a good betting medium but you have to know the form inside out. At the better end, there’s little fiddling and the fact they don’t have a jockey on their backs messing them about is also a bonus.
You certainly can have a reverse forecast. In fact multiples are much more popular there than at the horses.
I haven’t completed my ‘research’ yet and it’s likely we will hear something useful from the trainer just before the off. If you want to phone me at the track, you’re welcome but will the betting shop in Kilkeel really take a £50 reverse forecast on the 9.23 at Walthamstow? More to the point, would you get paid out if it came in?!
Can’t see anything wrong with your description of the betting slip. It’s a lot more accurate than some of the narratives on ebay
Reminds me of an application form I completed recently. Gave my occupation as ‘Equestrian Opportunities Analyst’. Wasn’t queried.
Re 114, MarkP yes I am fine
Whay did you need another one?
(It’s in my signature, just click on my name)
ChrisD, if you are about I have put a reply to your post on my blog.
According to Newsnight Scotland the Herald newspaper tomorrow is carrying a story that Jack McConnell has been interviewed by the Police in the Cash for Peerages scandal. Ho hum , we will have to wait until the morning to read article.
insert ‘the’ after read. Goodnight all - the thread is a good read as usual.
Did a visiting-MP thing at a branch meeting outside the constituency at the weekend - they were enthusing about Peter Hain before I had the chance to declare allegiance. It was the suggestion of less close links with the US that had attracted them.
I think the truth is that we can make educated guesses about the PLP and the union leadership picture is becoming clearer, but the CLP and union membership votes are very hard to call. It’s even hard to guess who will be on the ballot - I doubt if there will be more than four in the end. One point everyone agrees on is that Gordon is staying strictly neutral.
119- Another body blow to Labours campaign in Scotland- what a shame!!
121 - Nick, Not trying to score points - too late and I’m sober - but do you agree with Hain’s comments on Iraq? I thought you were quite open in your support for Tony Blair’s approach.
111 But aren’t such names as Yellow Peril, Left Turn (and possibly Red Flump and Comment a Tory) politically motivated names? Why are some allowed and not others? Would you be allowed I Love DC for instance?
What about Runnymede? Or Carlotta Vance? Why not try Long March?
Apoligies for such a long post- but for those of you interested in Scottish Labour politics then read this, it was emailed to me today!
April 2006 - Jack McConnell under pressure over breaking the ministerial code of conduct by giving public backing to a luxury golf resort planned by Donald Trump which could prejudice the planning process for the development
April 2006 - Revealed that Jack McConnell met with furniture tycoon Robert Morris over compensation to relocate his factory on the route of the M74 extension. The £35million was more than double the original compensation offer
March 2006 - Defeated Labour MP Calum MacDonald gets publicly paid job as Forestry Commissioner
September 2005 - Michael Watson MSP jaimed for arson
August 2005 - Revealed that disgraced former Scottish Executive special adviser, Phil Chalmers, is heading up a bid by French IT firm Atos Origin to secure some of the ID card contracts
July 2005 - Defeated Labour MP David Stewart gets job with the publicly funded SCVO only two months after losing his seat
June 2005 Labour MSP Ken MacIntosh resigns over non declaration of financial interests
April 2005 - Brian Wilson MP’s final section on Register of Members’ Interests shows directorships and advisory roles to renewable energy firms. As Energy Minister he promoted renewable energy
April 2005 - Revealed that Jack McConnell met with Labour donor Willie Haughey to discuss compensation on a land deal where the M74 would pass through Haughey’s property. Initial compensation of £7.4 million rose to £16.5 million
January 2005 - Jack McConnell fails to register a holiday at the Spanish villa of BBC broadcaster Kirsty Wark
January 2005 - Sarah Davidson, once an adviser to former Scottish secretary Helen Liddell, lands a £75,000-a-year job enforcing McConnell’s smoking ban. The new job was never advertised. She was the civil servant who presided over a £200m rise in the cost of Holyrood before taking a six-month sabbatical to travel round the world
October 2004 - Revealed that 70% of Scottish quango appointees have links to the Labour party
August 2004 - Former Edinburgh Labour Provost Eric Milligan appointed Scotland’s “welcome czar” to the tourism industry. Although not paid a salary he receives expenses to travel the world
June 2004 - Willie Haughey, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to the Labour party, appointed to the post of chairman of Scottish Enterprise Glasgow.
May 2004 - Failed Labour candidate Hugh Raven, a former parliamentary assistant to Peter Peacock, the education minister, awarded a £23,415 contract as a board member of Scottish Natural Heritage
January 2004 - Revealed that Schlumberger hired disgraced special adviser Philip Chalmers to run the Scottish Tourist Board’s Visit Scotland website. The website is part of a Scottish Executive PFI contract
September 2003 - Harry McGuigan, a leading Lanarkshire Labour councillor appointed as a member of the Scottish Children’s Reporter Administration board
August 2003 - Defeated Labour MSP Iain Gray appointed as Alistair Darling’s special adviser at a salary of £60,000
August 2003 - Failed Labour candidate Pat Kelly appointed to board of Scottish Water.
October 2002 - Lanarkshire Labour party hold a Red Rose Dinner attended by a notorious drug baron called Justin McAlroy
October 2002 - Forty-four constituency Labour parties in Scotland revealed to have failed to register agreements to accept regular donations from trades unions. Failure to do so is a criminal offence
January 2002 - Norman Murray, Labour councillor and former convenor of the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, appointed board member of the Scottish Ambulance Service at £7,305 a year
December 2001 - Nigel Griffiths and £40,000 office expenses
November 2001 - Henry McLeish resigns as Scottish First Minister after office expense scandal
November 2001 November 2001 - Jack McConnell admits to affair with Labour party secretary who he tried to keep in situ by appealing to Labour MPs for funds. He says he has had no other affairs
May 2001 May 2001 - Robin Young, a former non-executive director of Bovis (construction managers of the Scottish Parliament) appointed as permanent secretary at the Department of Trade and Industry
April 2001 - Failed Labour candidate Keith Geddes appointed to board of Scottish Natural Heritage
January 2000 - Gordon Brown faces Inquiry over flat purchased from Maxwell ruins
January 2000 - Police arrest Philip Chalmers, who earned £50,000-a-year as head of the Scottish Executive’s strategic communications unit, for being drunk at the wheel of his car in a red light district with a prostitute
October 1999 - Failed Labour candidate Joan Aitken appointed as the Prisons Complaints Commissioner
September 1999 - Scottish Labour Party lobbying scandal
July 1999 - Ken Collins, former Labour MEP, appointed chairman of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency with a salary of £45,000
John O - I support Hain for lots of reasons, but not necessarily on everything: one of his attractions is a notable commitment to tolerating diversity of opinion within the party. He’s more critical of the Iraq commitment than I am.
Benedict: thank goodness, two references to your blog in a matter of minutes. I’m glad normal service has been resumed; I was really worried there.
Nick P
Sir Christopher Meyer was on TV last night being interviewed by Andrew Neil. He made a number of points about the invasion.
1. Lots of people, including himself, and many Governments thought Saddam probably had WMDs
2. Blair did not in any sense act as GWB’s poodle; he genuinely believed himself that something had to be done about Saddam
3. Blair and his Ministers didn’t lie but they did remove the JIC’s caveats and thereby created the impression that the case for WMDs was stronger than it actually was
4. Blair could and should have identified the lack of post invasion planning and if he had done so, would have had greater influence in the post invasion phase
Points 1, 2 and 3 were pretty much as I had expected but 4 was a bit of a surprise. I’d always thought the US just closed the UK out of that phase but it seems nobody had really thought about it.
125.Hamilton Nat, why am I not filled with surprise at that little list.
Sky News: ICM poll (Guardian)-
Con 37, Lab 31, LD 23
Re 130, MikeL Cool.
Now how does that compare o last time?
131. Per UK Polling Report, last ICM poll (17 Dec) was Con 40, Lab 32, LD 18.
So today’s poll represents:
Con -3, Lab -1, LD +5
130 last ICm was C42, L32, LD18
It depends if the figures at 130 are the headline, adjusted or Gorndon Brown figures!
125 Hamilton Nat
It was quite a few threads back that I last saw you post. I left a query for you regarding Tax Treaties and the like. Did you pick up on it?
It generated some interesting and well-informed responses.
Bernard Ingram was just on Sky News - he stated the real story behind the Guardian ICM poll is that the Tories were not doing so much better with Labour in such a mess.
128.PtP I am not surprised at all at these two points.
“3. Blair and his Ministers didn’t lie but they did remove the JIC’s caveats and thereby created the impression that the case for WMDs was stronger than it actually was” That is what I always believed to be the case, and as such is unforgivable because they manipulated other politicians and the public
“4. Blair could and should have identified the lack of post invasion planning and if he had done so, would have had greater influence in the post invasion phase”
This is the one that really annoyed me and I think that had the British Military had more say/been listened to we might have had a better “day after the invasion” plan. He never allowed the military to prepare properly for the invasion for purely political reasons and that was another glaring mistake at the time, so why anyone should be surprised at this.
I suspect that Tony Blair was too desperate to get an agreement on the Middle East peace process as a sweetener for his backbenchers and did not do his job properly.
129. ChrisD- Im no fan of the Labour party- but even I was shocked at the party members, suporters in public positions, they control everything, which is worrying!!
130, 132 - If those numbers are right that seems to be very good for the Lib Dems. Not really sure why that should be - other than perhaps they score highly when they are quiet and say nothing!
134. Peter I dont recall reading it- post me the details and I will take a look and hopefully I can respond tommorow. I’m heading to bed for now!
Figures at 130 are the headline figures. So movement is per 132.
137. HamiltonNat, it was not just because I am a fan of the Union that I was against Devolution, I realised who would be running things and remember I have family down your way.
That is quite a jump for the Libdems?
136 Sure, Chris D.
Personally, I agree with you. I mentioned them here because I thought they represented a fairly balanced as well as informed view from somebody who was in a better position to judge than any of us here.
139 I’d struggle to find it myself now, Hamilton! It was at the end of the last big ‘Scottish’ thread on which you posted a lot.
Re 128, PTP, and 136 ChrisD, I agree totaly. I have wriiten much that is critical of the post invasion planning etc on my blog.
We should have said no way on this lack of a plan!.
PS ChrisD, have you seen my reply to your post on my blog?