Will today’s Mail story put more pressure on Blair?
January 26th, 2007
Could the investigation go on until the spring?
The main news in the Mail this morning is that that “detectives are now increasingly confident that the ten-month investigation will end in a criminal court case - either over claims that peerages were traded for political donations, or an attempt to conceal evidence.”
But what could also dominate the political environment is a suggestion in the paper “that a final report on the case is now unlikely to be submitted to the CPS until early spring. It remains possible that Mr Blair could have stepped down as PM by the time prosecutors have reached a decision.”
Quite what this means for the Blair exit date betting is hard to call. The period April- June is still the favourite.
Mike Smithson
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I wouldn’t part with any cash based on an article in the Mail - it’s hardly a model of political balance.
Back to the catholic church’s stance on adoption - Benedict White might like to read this…
http://eatenbymissionaries.blogspot.com/
Newe Forest DC Barton Ward
Frances Carpenter - (Conservative) 990 56.8%
Wyn Davies - (Liberal Democrat) 426 24.5%
Jeremy May - (Independent) 277 15.9%
Peter Dance - (Labour) 48 2.8%
Conservative hold. Turnout 36.7%
Barton Ward 2003
Con 1261, 1255 74.5%
Lib Dem 452, 378 25.5%
A bit O/T for a first comment, but how about this, from the Guardian?
“What is needed is a consistent message, challenging wholesale the stale mantra that prison works. Yet when the only attack from the Conservatives - who are yet to breathe any new life into their own fossilised thinking on crime - is about the failure to build more cells, it would take courage to provide that. Mr Reid has not so far shown himself to be up to the task. It is to be hoped that this will change. If it does not, he will remain saddled with a prison system that is, in words he might use himself, very far from being fit for purpose.”
The leading article is, actually, an attack on Reid and the Labour Government, but since I have been identified as a New-Lab supporter (yesterday), I thought I would paste the bit where it attacks the Tories too - just to keep up my new image.
I hate to admit it, but I usually get attacked in everyday life for being too Tory…..
So am I right in thinking that in the New Forest at least, the Lib Dem vote holds firm, while the Tory vote falls by 25%?
….and Labour, as it were, loses its deposit……
The significant part of the Mail story is this bit:
“ITV also alleged that officers discovered emails last autumn which were apparently exchanged between Labour fund-raiser Lord Levy, Miss Turner and Mr Blair’s chief of staff Jonathan Powell.
They were said to be ‘indiscreet’ and referred directly to ‘Ks and Ps’ being offered to those who have donated money.”
And not just because it reveals the paper gets its stories by watching telly; perhaps they were flicking through channels during a CBB commercial break. How long ago was “last autumn” anyway?
What the Mail does not say is whether the Ks and Ps were to be offered to those who had already donated money or to be offered as an inducement to those still thinking of doing so.
On Blair’s leaving date, the consensus is he will make an announcement after the May local elections, triggering a leisurely process to elect Gordon Brown, so the question is whether Yates of the Yard can precipitate an earlier and more sudden resignation. The Mail predicts “early spring” for the file even reaching the CPS so it seems doubtful.
If the “smoking gun” nails Blair personally, then he will go in Q1. If not, then we are left with the original timetable. If the Mail is right and the file goes to the CPS in “early spring” then the police investigation should be over by Q2 so can hardly catch him “bang to rights” in that period.
The Betfair market is very illiquid, and has different periods as favourite on the back and lay sides. People are asking for 2/1 against Q2 but there are no layers at (or near) that price.
Fun!
And will Conservative Home cover it? Nopers. They will have a “let’s get worked up over ukip” story instead.
I think this is significant, John L
“What the Mail does not say is whether the Ks and Ps were to be offered to those who had already donated money or to be offered as an inducement to those still thinking of doing so.”
Yes, they might have got away with it had they handed those emails over to the police. But the police asked for all relevant information, and what happened is that no. 10 did not hand over these key emails and in fact deleted them. That is straight-up peversion of the course of justice, IE, cover-up.
And I can’t see how the CPS could fail to prosecute.
The trigger is someone being charged.
If the evidence is there then, with the CPS already briefed on the progress, presumably an arrest could happen quicker than people believe?
5 Tressage,
Many options - it’s hard to extrapolate from a previous 2-party local election, to a multi-party result with an independent. Is the Independent a tory, thereby taking some of the Conservative vote?
Alternatively, there is some churn going on (for example, difficult to see the Labour votes coming directly from former Conservatives!)
You can spin a Lib Dem vote holding firm and a tory vote falling by a quarter. I can spin a thumping Conservative hold in mutli-party election, with more than 55% of the vote, and a Lib Dem making no progress at all.
All-together now - “I say tomato - you say potato” or whatever…
8 Commentator
Does anyone really care what ConHome says these days? They were relevant/interesting when new, these days much less so.
Cumbria CC Brampton/Gisland Con hold Con 717 Lab 363 BNP 88 - 2005 RESULT Con 1370 Lab 809 LibDem 689
Last 2 results from last night
Anglesey CC Llanfihangel Esceifiog Ind gain from Plaid Ind 449 Plaid 273 Lab 56 - 2004 result Plaid 558 Ind 323 .
Notts CC Hucknall Con gain from Lab Con 1597 Lab 1554 LibDem 1007 UKIP 413 Green 350 - 2005 result 3 seats Lab 6619/6576/6566 Con 4278/4125/3824 Green 1540/1320/1149 Ind 854/742 . Bad result for Labour in this massive ward which is about 1/3rd of Ashfield parliamentary constituency .
14. That is an excellent result for the Tories.
The Mail story seems to be just a compressed version of the ITV story, which has been comprehensively denied, as opposed to the usual ‘we cannot comment’ response from Downing Street. An expanded version is in the Telegraph and includes the claim that there will in fact be no charges.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/26/nhonours26.xml
The investigation gives the impression of flailing around and I’m increasingly sceptical whether any prosecutions will result at all, but clearly none of us outside the investigation really know one way or the other.
The Hucknall result is bad for Labour (compared with 2003) and in line with the 2006 local elections, though the LibDem intervention (which seems to have hammered the Greens) and massive fall in turnout makes it hard to read much into. As I said yesterday, we really do need to expect a few bad polls and by-elections at the moment - I don’t think the prison stuff in the Sun etc. is fair, but it’s certainly not helpful.
14. yes, Mark, the Hucknall is bad for Labour. However I think it’s less bad than what it can seem (still bad though). I mean that the previous election was held on GE day, so I suppose that in a not GE day Labour could have won it by a less big margin in 2005.
I thought Hucknall was in Sherwood constituency though
16. ‘The investigation gives the impression of flailing around ‘
Nick P - I seem to recall you making a similar uninformed and critical comment about the Suffolk police during their recent murder investigation. A few days later they had their man.
17 As always Andrea , you are correct Hucknall is in Ashfield DC but Sherwood Parliamentary constituency .
19. Mark, thanks. Being in Sherwood, it can be strategically more important for the tories: Sherwood is a seat they can hope to win if they return to have an overall majority in the Commons (even if they don’t necessarily need it to get a majority) whilst Ashfield is less of a prospects for them
Might have read it wrong but yesterday they were saying that Itv News stated there were unlikely to be in charges as the Cps could not prove intent for cash for peerages.
On the second perverting the course of justice, deleting e mails, also was the same situation.
21 Dez,
Yes, thats what the ITV web site is suggesting:
http://www.itv.com/news/britain_b2bc57bcf9a4d446167c4e6dfc93fa36.html
On the ’secret email’ system, Guido is suggesting its Lotus Notes, used by Labour Party members within No 10. If I was asked to ’submit all my emails on topic X’ over the past Y years I’d be hard pushed - I only have access to the ones I have not deleted - not ones which may remain on a server - I wonder if thats whats exciting Yates. Mind you, I’m not working in the PM’s Office - so ’sofa government’ (with lack of record keeping) claims more victims?
21. Oh really? and who spun them that line, one wonders?
Should have said the difficulty in proving criminal intent.
The mail don`t need this standard though.
An endorsement from Labour on their Microsoft supplied security system:
“What we first noticed about the Whale e-Gap appliance was the security. We were told the history of the appliance, and how it was designed to meet Israeli military-grade security needs, and all thought: ‘we definitely need this!’”
- Steve Turnbull, Network Manager, Labour Party
See here:
http://www.whalecommunications.com/site/whale/corporate/whale/pi=489/doc_id=33940.html
This also confirms Labours use of Lotus notes.
Note No 10 has said there is not a second “computer” system, not that there is not a second “email” system.
Hat tip: Julian on Guido Fawkes
23,
Obviously not you or the Blair haters.
Of course, Robin (11). It is just a matter of straws in the wind - but the wind does seem to be blowing in the right direction for the Lib Dems, doesn´t it? This result, along with the result in Hucknall, suggests that surge in Lib Dem support found in the recent the ICM poll may not be so far removed from reality.
To me, this weeks reults suggest that the Lib Dem vote is at least holding firm, if not growing; the Tory vote is falling away (despite the Hucknall gain); while Labour is heading straight for disaster.
Would you disagree with that?