By request our “What did you do daddy” poster
January 27th, 2007
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What will Dave and Gordon tell their children about their war roles?
Earlier in the week when were were discussing the electoral impact of Iraq a couple of people emailed asking that I publish again the photo-composition that was produced for the site a few months ago.
Well here it is and it does raise question for both men that are probably not going to go away. Both were supporters of the invasion although Gordon was clearly in a much better position to influence the final decision.
What would have happened if he had resigned at that point - like Robin Cook?
This is not an easy one either for Cameron. We shall see but while the death toll mounts by the day it will stay on the domestic agenda.
Mike Smithson
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Perhaps Gordon & Dave should also start to come up with some answers on the ever increasing democratic deficit for English voters.
The latest piece of discrimination is that from April prescription charges are being abolished in Wales.
No prizes for guessing whose paying for it,naturally block grants from the Treasury and very generous they are too for Welsh voters £7,666 per head,Scottish voters naturally top the list at £ 8,265 per head and the ever generous English voter gets £ 6,762.
On Iraq it has to be the Hokey Cokey position:
In out in out
shake it all about
you do the hokey cokey
then you turn-around
thats what its all about
‘oy the hokey cokey
According to Charles Tripp, in an almost-too-scary-to-read article in the current issue of the London Review of Books civil society in Iraq was destroyed by sanctions, since either you became a client of a crony or your starved. He also implies that Blair doesn’t listen to things he doesn’t want to hear, although he differs in that respect from previous PMs I’m less sure. (And no, I don’t think Brown will be different, either.)
[3] That should of course read “or you starved”.
Gwynfa/Cymru Mark/Mark Senior about.
I know that Mike has to try to be balanced, but this is ridiculous.
If I recall correctly, at the time of the Iraq invasion, David Cameron was a humble MP, whose only position was as a member of the Commons Home Affairs Select Committee. He wasn’t even in the Shadow Cabinet.
Gordon Brown was Chancellor of the Exchequer and thus the second most powerful minister after the PM.
If GB had resigned at the time, then the impact, although of course unknowable in the detail of its political impact, would have caused, shall we say, a bit of a rumpus.
If DC had resigned (from the Home Affairs Select Committee, no less), would anyone have noticed? Of course not.
if the Tory’s hadn’t lost their senses (although from the likes of Heffer and those who write into the Telegraph saying they’re off to UKIP many of them don’t have any to lose) and elected KC in 2001 then the Tories would not have supported the war and the government might have lost. Even if they hadn’t the Tories would have been in the position to exploit the anti-Iraq boost of the LibDems and might even have won the general election which might have been precipitated.
5 I am about Punter watching TV racing .
I have never understood why the Conservatives painted themselves into such a corner over Iraq. Yes, of course they supported the war at the time but it would have been very easy for Michael Howard to say, after the event, that:
- Yes, we supported the war because we believed the government’s statements about WMD, 45 minutes etc.
- Even though we are political opponents of the government, over such a serious matter it was reasonable to accept such claims at the time they were made, especially when they were supposedly endorsed by the security services.
- We now know, post the Hutton Enquiry, the Butler Report and all the other stuff we have seen that the claims were, in essence, a crock of shite.
- So we supported the war on the basis of lies which were fed to us and to you, the Electorate, by the Right Honorable Dissembler opposite.
- We’ve been had!
Such a position would be morally and logically defensible, and would give them freedom to oppose the war after the fact, even though they supported it at the time.
Or am I being terribly naïve?
8. Repaste from earlier and a reply.
28. Picking you up on other day. Have you actually spoken to Bridgend Lib Dems, or is this just second hand party talk. Also how much autonomy do they have in Wales/Scotland after all who they clamber into coalition beds with affects Ming on the national area.
by Punter January 27th, 2007 at 11:33 am
30. I am from Bridgend, and there does not seem to be any buzz about the LDs. But Plaid are working Ogmore (North Bridgend) pretty hard - maybe a bit too far for them but expcet to see a much tighter competition here
by PenDdu January 27th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
10 I have not talked to anyone from Bridgend LibDems directly but other sources are telling me what I have told you . Plaid went backwards in Ogmore at the last GE losing 1/4 of their vote and coming 4th . They may do a little better in a Welsh Assembly election but I doubt they will come close .
In theory there is complete autonomy as to coalition partners in Wales and Scotland but I am sure there will/have been discussions with Ming on this .
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6304745.stm
Bye bye Mr Reid!
11. Re-paste my reply earlier to him. Wonder if he actually mean’t Ogmore Constituency. Re Sources no names but can you be more specfic. Re Coalitions well the Welsh Lib Dems are getting quite pally with the Tories. A coalition of some description could happen. IF the Tories get fifteen seats then a Tory-Lib Dem coaltion could start to approac a majority if the Lib Dems can gain off Labour. For Ming I suspect it will help as he can then say look we work with everyone, so no one can take us for granted. I do wonder though re you organisation in Wales, leaving it to Lembit may not be smart.
37. You what you being serious. May help their list vote but the constituency really. But this didn’t do anything for Plaid even in 1999. This is the sort of area where they still vote Labour citing the actions of the Liberal Home Secretary in 1910. I’m as surprised at what you’re saying on Ogmore as much as what Mark Senior said on Bridgend, albeit I’m increasingly seeing his logic even if I’m not yet wholly convinced. Can you tell me why you think this Ogmore for Plaid at all.
by Punter January 27th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Twenty-Three Members of Parliament gave their lives on active service during the Second World War, most of them volunteers, including George Charles Grey, member for Berwick-upon-Tweed and Baby of the House, and Ronald Cartland (Barbara Cartland’s brother), member for Birmingham King’s Norton. (I think the figure was 22 in the First World War, notably including Ian Fleming’s father, Valentine Fleming, member for Henley.)
How many of the current bunch are serving in Iraq? 0, and judging by the recent poll, few know anything about the place or the situation in the Middle East. A disgraceful indictment of our so-called democracy - the collective “wisdom” of the individually ignorant, blithely condemning hundreds of British troops and thousands of Iraqis to misery and death for the forseeable future… For what? advancement within the NuLab kleptocracy…
If Gordon Brown had resigned just before the key vote, we would not have gone to war. Tony Blair would have been so badly damaged that surely he would have had to resign, or wait to be challenged by Gordon and then beaten, (not necessarily by Gordon). Therefore, if Gordon Brown had threatened to resign, the war would not have taken place.
Cameron, meanwhile, was entirely irrelevant, not that that will help him given that he voted for it (didn’t he?)
And Ed B, I agree, the exaggeration of the evidence of a WMD threat, which turned out to be non-existent, certainly give the Opposition plenty of wiggle room. One qualification though. Didn’t IDS come out in support of the war right at the start, without asking any questions really, and before they’d heard the claims about WMD?
14 - IIRC both Andrew Murrison and Desmond Swayne have served in Iraq there may be others but I can’t think of any more of the top of my head.
Tobias Ellwood was also a serving soldier, though I am not sure where he saw action.
17. Max, what do you think of list rankings? All according to expectations?
13 I think I would prefer no t to be more specific as to sources Punter . Yes he did mean Ogmore Constituency which is of course half of Bridgend Council .
18. How does the military vote split. Will the arrival of thousands of forces personnel help the Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan and surrounding seats.
16. Gavin - Yes, IDS didn’t handle himself very cleverly but then the man was was a complete buffoon, was deposed afterwards, and Howard could easily have said something. I’m just puzzled about how the Conservatives have tied themselves in knots about this.
20. Ok. Was just wondering if you could say how senior i.e more than an intern, wouldn’t expect you to name Lord Rennard especially if it was him! As I say though he really needs to overhaul your Party in Wales. Just can’t see Ogmore this stayed Labour even 1999.
19 - Much as I expected Andrea don’t think there are really any shocks. And it pretty much guarantees three new MSP’s in Gavin Brown, John Lamont and Liz Smith.
By the way Mike, it would be great to have an update on the prospects for Welsh and Scottish elections. I have very little idea apart from the betting odds we have.
24. I suppose Jackson Carlaw will get in too.
The only other things I can note are that Liz Smith got a better ranking than Ted Brocklebank; David Davidson is thrid and he was first last time; and Scanlon outpolled Jamie McGrigor (she was probably helped by her “Moray sacrifice”)
17. 18. Note no Nu Labour members in that list..quelle surprise.
Thanks for the article Mike. I suspect it will hurt Gordon more than David, because he was closer to power. Much like the ERM really.
RE 12, SBS. No that is part of a new news managment strategy.
See:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
26 - Yes forgot about Jackson Carlaw. The publicity a while ago about David Davidson’s private life won’t have helped him. Not that surprised about Liz Smith - Perth has a fairly large membership and she’s been active in the region for a while. John Lamont would have benefited similarly from the large membership in Rox & Berwks (largest in Scotland IIRC).
I heard Shirley Williams give the most sensible explanation for why MPs who voted for the war can now feel justified in feeling it was a disaster that should never have happened. She said many MPs voted in good faith because they beleived the occupation and post-war government would be well managed and the MPs who voted for the war based on the call form the government to ’support the troops’ should feel no shame in now criticisng the government.
I agree with this ad don’t see Cameron has much to worry about, but Brown not only supported the war but was a key decision maker in the planning of both it and the post-war management of Iraq.
Worse than this he now beleives that James Baker made suggestions which offered a way forward and whose report should be adopted whilst agreeing with Bush’s total rejection of Baker and the new ‘troop surge’ policy. The Goblin King is thus having to face two ways at once over the biggest foreign policy disaster the country has faced since Suez. Iraq might not directly affect too many votes bt it does show Brown is just not PM material.
The English Lord Chancellor says today that it is OK for judges to go easy on villains because of prison overcrowding.
So A is sentenced last week for a crime and is sent to prison. B is given a non-prison sentence this week for the same crime under the same circumstances and under the same sentencing guidelines.
And that is justice?
I hope B sues, but the judges will sail on regardless. And the politicians will simply raid the tax payer to make a pay off.
Re 31, Rent a quote, surely A would sue, not B? Unless B is hard up for accomodation
32 You are right Benedict, but the alphabet aside it is an iniquitous statement from the LCJ.
Re 33, Rent a Quote, yes I agree. The situation is beyond belief.
29. Max, is South of Scotland your area? If so, I would be interesting in your opinion on the situation?
I suppose you can gain Dunfries from Labour…any other seats will change hands in your opinion?
The fact Alex Fergusson hasn’t gone for a list position can mean he’s confident to hold.
How do you think the list seats will be distrubuted? I suppose Rosemary Byrne has 0.1% chance to hold her seat.
On the headline topic, surely the funniest of the all was the Private Eye cover with Alastair Campbell, whose child asks “What did you do in the war, daddy?” and Campbell’s reply being “I started it”.
Michael Howard rebuked Tony Blair and Bill Clinton back in ‘98 for being soft on Sadam, he was urging military action then. Similarily IDS was urging military action against Iraq weeks before the dodgy dossier was revealed. The Libdems can make hay over Iraq, they did oppose, but the Tories are in too deep, it would look like hypocrisy for them to change course now.
35 - It is Andrea. It’s the one part of the country where we’ve made meaningful progress in the last few years and I would hope we increase our representation from 4 to 5.
It seems to me very unlikely that Rosemary Byrne will hold her seat. Hopefully we’ll pick up Dumfries. I assume as you say that Alex Fergusson thinks he’ll hold his seat. The SNP are doing better in the polls but they’ve done pretty badly in Galloway since 1997 and don’t have much of a local government base on which to build.
T,E,L will be interesting too given how marginal it was at the last election.
Not sure about the list to be honest although the SNP will certainly be hoping to pick up an extra seat.
RE 38, Max, how many Conservative MP’s do you think there will be after the next general election?
And another relevant question is — what did our bonhomous, affable Nick Palmer MP do during the War?
Nick, your hands are covered in blood, although you never did any fighting.
40 - Oh, for pity’s sake…
Perfectly fair, John O.
If thare had been more critical objection from backbench Labour MPs, then Blair’s reputation might not now be in tatters.
38. Max, thanks. I suppose that if SNP won’t make constituency gains they’ll pick up a 4th list seat.
Do you think that the Greens will hold their list seat?
I suppose that the overall range of seats parties can hope to get is something like(constituency+list):
Labour: 4 seem sure and the 5th is at risk (if they lose Dumfries and they don’t fall too much in the list vote, they can get a list seat, but it can be close)
SNP: they should hold easily the 3 seats they’ve and a 4th seat look very achievable
Con: 4 seem sure and a 5th can be picked up
LD: it seems difficult for them to make gains. They should grow sensibly in the list vote to get a seat there
Greens: holding the list seat in their only prospect
Do you agree with this overall picture?
43 - I would agree with that Andrea - other than Dumfries Labour aren’t seriously under threat in any of the other seats. I think the Greens probably will hold onto the seat they have although that’s not 100% certain.
Do you mean from Scotland Benedict? If so I reckon about 3 or 4. I know Mike has suggested we aren’t making any progress in Scotland but a couple of polls have shown us on or a bit above (16-19%) where we were at the last election.
41 - Naturally, you post whatever you like, but I doubt that accusing Nick Palmer (FWIW I’m a Tory) of having his hands covered with blood takes the argument much further. With respect - ah, there’s a word - it sounds more like hysteria, and dare I say, not altogether unrelated to ’sanctimony’. Hey ho.
44. Thanks Max
3/4 Wesminster seats in Scotland…I suppose you’re thinking about the one you hold (too many names in that name!), Dumfries and Galloway, Stirling and then it can become difficult. I think the next in line is Jim Murphy’s seat (around 14% majority)
45 I think it is fair for MPs to expect to be confronted with the consequences of the actions.
If I was an MP, I would feel very ashamed if I had participated in hoodwinking the Country into a war. I would not be able to look at people like Reg Keays or Rose Gentle in the eye.
If the Tories do very well in the locals in England, as seems likely, but poll poorly in Scotland - again, it will make them appear ever more like an English party. I think we could see even stronger pro-English policies being put forward. Never mind English votes for English laws, I see something more along the lines of a major infrastructure project starting at Wallsend.
46 - IMO Berwickshire, Roxburgh etc is the second most likely gain after Dumfries and Galloway. I don’t think Angus and North Perthshire can be entirely ruled out either. Obviously the SNP are doing better now but both seats will no doubt be hard fought. Other than that you are looking at the likes of Eastwood and Stirling. If we win one or both in May then that might be a good indicator for the next GE.
49. oh, yes, Max. Not sure why I just concentreted on gains from Labour and I forgot the other parties!
re 38. MY spreadsheet shows on the current poll levels the SNP may well win 3 list seats in S Scotlands and also Galloway and Upper Nithsdale and Tweeddale, Ettick and Lauderdale
Hi Gwynfa - I supported the war, with doubts, and still support it, with doubts. I have never pretended anything else, and was re-elected on that basis. In my opinion the alternative of leaving Saddam in power and hoping for the best would have led to much more bloodshed in the end - he might have settled down to be a peaceful old soul who never launched another war of aggression with whatever weapons came to hand, but I doubt it. I can’t prove it - but with respect you can’t prove the opposite either, however high you turn up the volume.
re 47, don’t worry no NewLab MPs do look them in the eye.
re 52. It’s not what your leader thought in the pre-war debate where he said that he would have been happy to leave Saddam in power if he had complied with UN resolutions.
I also think you were re-elected on the basis that you seem to be a good, conscientious, local MP rather than your support for the war. Unless the government realises that there are many people in this country who - because of the war - have a deep and visceral hatred of Tony Blair and all his works then it’ll never recover.
Re 44, max, yes I did, thank you very much for the answer.
45. Hmmm yes I’m so no fan of Nick Palmer but to be fair he is a little beyond military age.
49 Max , the only problem is that all the Scottish Holyrood Polls indicate you will get fewer votes than in 2003 including Yougov who got your vote almost exactly right in 2003 show you 2-3% down on 2003 so perhaps it is more a case of which seats you will lose rather than gain .
57. Mark, I think Max is talking about Westminster seats and the latest 3 Scottish polls about Westminster gave them 18% (November), 19% (January) and 16% (January). So they didn’t show them down.
re 57 yes on current poll showings the Tories would just win Edinburgh Pentlands (on less than 30% of the vote) and Ayr
56. During WW2, many MPs signed up even though some were in their 60s. The most remarkable was Hitchin MP Sir Arnold Wilson, who spent most of the 1930s saying what a reasonable chap Hitler was, but eventually realised he had been duped and rejoined the RAF, as a rear-gunner. He was shot down and killed in 1940, aged 56.
The Powell & Pressburger film “One of Our Aircraft is Missing (1942)” has a character Sir George Corbett, K.C.I.E., C.M.G., F.R.G.S., D.S.O., M.P., Rear-Gunner of “B for Bertie”. Based on Sir Arnold Wilson, who was actually considered to play the part, before he was posted missing…
Another killed in the Second World War was Private Patrick Munro of the Palace of Westminster Home Guard, member for Llandaff and Barry, killed by a bomb in 1942, aged 58.
57 - Funny how reliable you find polls when they are bad for the Tories Mark.
Chris A: no, you’re right that I don’t mean lots of people voted for me because of the war, only that it was the only criticism of me in the LibDem leaflets in their otherwise low-key campaign, and voters generally knew where I stood. I’d guess it was the main factor that produced a 1% rise in the LD vote despite their not really trying very hard.
There is some visceral hatred of TB around, with Gwynfa an example, but I doubt if more than 10% of voters feel that way. Hatred is less common in British politics than people deepoly involved in this sort of debate think.
61 Max , I don’t think the polls that reliable but you (mis)quoted them in your favour in post 44 .
63. Mark, Max is not misquoting Scottish Wesminster polls in post 44. The last 3 yougov poll about Scottish Wesminster intentions give the tories 18, 19 and 16 and Max said ” a couple of polls have shown us on or a bit above (16-19%) where we were at the last election”
63 - Mark I’m referring to the Westminster figures and I’m fairly sure they are correct.
64/65 Yes but we are talking about Holyrood elections !!!!!
66. Mark, we moved on when Benedict asked Max how many Scottish MPs he thinks there’ll be after next GE.
(even if Max at one point made some confusions and he refered to some areas with the Holyrood name and to others with the Westminster name)
Re 66
Re 66, My 68 should have said Mark, you were talking about Holyrood, Max, Andrea and I were discussing Westminster, as I asked a question about it.
62. Interesting reference to the ‘low key campaign’ run by the Lib Dems against you at the GE, Nick Palmer - more evidence that my description of the Broxtowe Lib Dems as a Labour front organisation wasn’t so far off the mark?
“even if Max at one point made some confusions and he refered to some areas with the Holyrood name and to others with the Westminster name”
67 - That probably does confuse things! It does seem daft that a constituency with exactly the same boundaries has a different name at Holyrood (Eastwood) than it does at Westminster (East Renfrewshire).
69. Perhaps we can settle this dispute with reference to Mark’s preferred measure of party support - local byelections. The 43 byelections since 2003 in Scotland show Con 19% (+2.8%) SNP 22% (+3%) Labour 33% (-10%) and the Lib Dems 10% (+4.7%). Some scope for Tory gains it seems, based on this data.
71. And then you’ve such long constituencies names. When you finish to name them, the election night is already finished!
72 Agreed Yellow Peril scope for gains v Labour but the net interparty swing is against the Conservatives between Con and SNP or Con and LibDem .
Interestingly Max the only Yougov pre 2005 GE poll on Scottish Parliamentary voting intentions immediately prior to the GE had Conservatives at 19% an overstatement of 3% as it proved .
74. Actually I mistyped the rise in the SNP vote share, which is 2.7%, not 3% - so in fact a tiny swing to the Tories in ‘net interparty swing’ there.
62,
Nick that visceral 10% will be changing allegiance around about June, I suspect.
Anyways, thats what I have had my money on for over two years now.
Nick as I said you’re deluding yourself. 10% means the difference between a Labour victory and a Tory minority government. If you can willingly give up 10% of your support in the current dire straits then good luck to you - I for one will cheer on the extra LibDem MPs. Tony Blair is hated as much as Lady would be in any Yorkshire pit village and many people of my acquaintance think the same - not political activists but just work colleagues and friends.
Nick as I said you’re deluding yourself. 10% means the difference between a Labour victory and a Tory minority government. If you can willingly give up 10% of your support in the current dire straits then good luck to you - I for one will cheer on the extra LibDem MPs. Tony Blair is hated as much as Lady Thatcher would be in any Yorkshire pit village and many people of my acquaintance think the same - not political activists but just work colleagues and friends.
oops - sorry
52 Nick, Thanks for the reply and sorry to be so brutal to a mathematician.
I think, by the next General Election, Bush & Blair’s policy will have created a dangerously unstable failed state, a breeding ground for terrorists, disgorging refugees. (Many would say this has already happened).
So, Labour will not go into the next General Election arguing that the war in Iraq was justifiable. And loyal backbenchers like you will be in the position of Hubert Humphrey and Ed Muskie by the end of the Vietnam War, arguing against a war that they had previously cheerfully supported.
77,78 Of course, this is right and I was going to make this point.
10 per cent of visceral hatred (just assuming Nick P’s figure is correct) is a LOT.
70/76/77: Yellow Peril, the answer is the same as it was when you said it the first time. The LDs in Broxtowe focused heavily on winning county council seats from us on the same day, which they very successfully did. We didn’t think they were a front!
76/77: Chris A: “If you can willingly give up 10% of your support in the current dire straits then good luck to you” - you’re arguing that 10% of the 35% who voted Labour in 2005 hate Blair? That seems to me extremely unlikely: people who hate Blair nearly all voted for another party in 2005. On the contrary, I’d think some will return to Labour after the leadership change, as I think dez is suggesting, though others hate all of us, not just TB.
Last week’s MORI poll casts some interesting light on all this:
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2007/s070114.shtml
- essentially TB, GB and DC are all liked by similar numbers (about a third).
re 82 but Nick whatever Mori says (and we all know what to think about Mori polls) you are owning up to the fact that 10% of the public will not vote Labour because of your leader.
83 Yes but I think that Nick’s point is that it applies to any leader for example in the same poll 10% of the public like the Conservative party but not Cameron so you might say that they will not vote Conservative because of their leader .
How much trouble is the story in the Telegraph, re peerages?
83/84: yes - I’m not sure if you’re deliberately misinterpreting me, Chris, but what I’m saying is that up to 10% of the public strongly dislike TB, of which the great majority are people who didn’t vote for us last time and in many cases would never dream of voting for us. I dare say George Galloway hates TB, for instance, but he isn’t going to vote Labour anyway. There *are* some people who didn’t vote Labour because of TB, and some of those will probably revert after he’s gone; equally there are some who only voted Labour because of TB, and we’ll struggle to retain them.
If that’s not a clear response, I give up! - I’m having an early night…
Re 85, AT, I have not read the actual tory yet, but come midnight you can bet I will have read it, blogged it, linked to it and done a round up of where we are so far.
O/T but mood needs lightening up. From the Speccie on shipwrecks in Devon
“talk about the last time there’d been a shipwreck in these parts…30 or 40 years ago now. A privately hired hovercraft had,.. attempted to gain access to Sidmouth harbour…it foundered and began to sink. And yet this terrible wrecking also brought forth bounty of a kind.
As the craft flapped pointlessly in the surf,…. a magisterial figure in a smart suit emerged .. and waded, with steadfast expression and immense resolve, through the waves, a look of destiny upon his face. People looked on in amazement and trepidation. For it was the Right Honourable Jeremy Thorpe MP — and he’d come to do a spot of canvassing.”
Nick perfectly clear now.
87 - That’s got to be the typo of the year, so far, Benedict.
Spot the missing letter:
“I have not read the actual tory yet…”
Re 90, Steven, Sugar!
If any one is interested I have updated the cash for peerages story on my blog here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
With a link to the latest telegraph story.
88 Ted Funnily enough, I had that story told me by legendary Sidmouth activist Rosemary Murch (now, more’s the pity, departed to Catalunya) while canvassing in the town myself!! We were waiting there for the late arriving Poster Van commissioned by Lib Dem HQ, and discussing previous cock-ups etc!
Has anyone (cymrumark, punter…) commented on the Anglesy CC result (Ind gain from Plaid) - is this significant??