Is this the face of a man who wants to carry on?
January 28th, 2007
How long will Tony be there?
Sometimes the still photograph is much more revealing than the moving image. These are screen grabs that I took from Blair’s interview earlier in the day on BBC’s “The Politics Show”. Together they make a powerful combination.
He looked at his most stressed when pressed on the dropping of the Saudi arms case investigation and, of course, when commenting on the handover.
If you have got half an hour it is well worth watching.
Latest Blair exit date betting is here.
Mike Smithson
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just watched the interview - the man’s completely deluded
Pic 1: (serious and concerned look) let me explain, it’s a very serious matter…
Pic 2: well, but, the point is…
Pic 3: this criticism is silly….
Pic 4: well, go to hell and I don’t have time to lose…
“Dropping the Saudi arms investigation” - wonder why the Tories aren’t pursuing him on that?
Carry On? Which “Carry On” star does Blair most resemble?
Yes, I couldn’t believe he just walked into that - he dug himself a hole by spinning about how such wonderful progress was being made in cracking down on corruption in Africa. Of course, nearer to home a crackdown will only happen if it is convenient, expedient and doesn’t actually come with a price tag attached.
Good interview by Jon Sopel though.
It was a much tougher interview then he was expecting, it tells us about how Labour have the BBC in their control, that they can have a week like they just have, and still expect an easy ride.
I could see about two or three times that the PM was on the edge of getting up and leaving the interview. Well done the interviewer for pushing it as far as he did……
I just wonder if people are taking fully into account the possibility that Tony Blair may, even if only on a sub-conscious level, want David Cameron to succeed him.
If one thing can be deduced from the latter years of his time in office, it is the extent to which he (in his mind) sees ‘national interests’ as above the interests of the Labour Party. If he sees the continuation of “Blairite thinking” as vital for the future interests of the country, and sees Cameron as offering the best prospects for that, then it would hardly be outrageous to suggest he wants Cameron to become Prime Minister (especially when considering the apparent absence of any credible Blairite challenger Gordon Brown). And if so, one must factor in the extent to which Blair may be timing his exit to coincide with the interests of the Tory Party rather than the interests of the Labour Party. Indeed, to many this may be the only rational explanation for what is going on.
In 1997 many Tories, although tribalism prevented them from doing so, were relaxed about Tony Blair becoming Prime Minister. They knew that their government was a total shambles and, frankly believed that Tony Blair was basically one of them who had chosen an alternative party, and was so dominant over that party they had no cause to fear Labour in power. Whether they were right or not is a topic for debate, but it would hardly be ridiculous to think that loyal Blairites could think similar about Cameron (and indeed, their apparent despair and hatred of Gordon Brown could be causing them to see things in Cameron that aren’t actually there).
i did not get a chance to watch it and hope to catch up with it tomorrow. However I suspect he is well past hte daggers stage, (two stops on from Barking).
I also supect he will hang on as long as he can.
*‘national interests’ as above (and even in contradiction to) the interests of the Labour Party.
7.”Whether they were right or not is a topic for debate, but it would hardly be ridiculous to think that loyal Blairites could think similar about Cameron ”
Alex, I think Glenda Jackson agrees with you.
Then I’m not sure if that makes your point more likely or less
Sinn Fein/IRA have voted to join the Police authority of Northern Ireland which means that the Assembly elections are
.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6308175.stm
I do think this has all become a rather sad spectacle. From a purely selfish political point of view it would be best to see Blair struggle on as long as he can causing further internal consternation within Labour and go on further damaging their electoral prospects, but it is clear that the government has ground to a halt and that the pieces will not begin moving again until a new Prime Minister is in place. In light of this, and for the good of the country, he should go now.
Mike, I watched it in the morning and found myself almost fascinated by his facial expressions and general demeanour. I was surprised that no one really commented on the interview in the previous thread. This was a man who was going through the motions, seems out of touch and generally looked distracted.
I could not get over the difference from his speech at the last party conference, I don’t think he will stay/last till June/July. But rather than being relaxed this is a man who has a lot on his mind!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml…/28/nhons28.xml
Cash for honours paper trail leads to Blair
By Andrew Alderson, Patrick Hennessy and Jasper Copping, Sunday Telegraph
Last Updated: 3:04am GMT 28/01/2007
Detectives have discovered a hand-written note from Tony Blair among new evidence that has widened significantly the cash-for-honours investigation.
It is the first time that the “paper trail” uncovered by Scotland Yard has led directly to the Prime Minister. The note is understood to acknowledge the efforts of Labour’s 12 secret lenders who provided £14 million to help the party fight the 2005 election.
TB will have to resign this week IF this is true.
So what is next? Brown to ascend without an election????
Financial markets might feel a little impact but it seems that the City still believe in Gordon despite running the UK into the number 3 spot in the world for debt.
I find the funniest thing in this the increasing physical resemblance to Dubya - has anyone else noticed this?
12. AHM, I have to agree with you there. In fact I am now at the point where I think the country is suffering from this general paralysis of the government, and another 6 months of this is just too worrying to contemplate. The unedifying sight of Brown and various Deputy leadership contenders doing the political ambition fashion parade for the media, while departments like the Home Office lurch from crisis to crisis has become beyond parody.
Do they think the country can run on a diet of “Britishness” and cabinet show boating on an equality amendment, which threatens to open up a fight with the Heads of various churches over an issue which affects a minuscule proportion of the electorate?
With have the Military general’s openly criticising government policy, police chiefs questioning policy and government spin and a Judiciary in revolt.
Were we really ever at that stage under either Mrs T or John Major?
11 - so Sinn Fein have decided it would be best if he goes as well…
I did wonder like Iain Dale if he’d partaken of too much alcohol but think it was too much praise. It was a leader who had just come off a wave of massive adulation from the assembled great & good of the world who really had no idea of the perception his own electorate has. He doesn’t really worry about his party because they can’t do anything, he thinks he can tie Gordon down in a certain direction and that there are just local difficulties, He accepts his greatness. God knows how he would react if the Police did seek a search warrant of 10 Downing St and an interview under caution. The man has lost it.
12 - “From a purely selfish political point of view it would be best to see Blair struggle on as long as he can.. for the good of the country, he should go now.”
I am pleased to see a victory for patriotism over Schadenfreude. I always feel there is too much Schadenfreude in opposition politics.
I have always wanted “an orderly transition” to Brown. I do not, as some posters do, react with Osbornian glee to every bit of bad news on the economy. (I note that David Davis’ reaction to bad news from the Home Office are rather more mature!)
But, AHM, with Sinn Fein signing up unanimously to the police deal, it is time from Blair to go.
Re 14, herbert, if you had read my write up of that telegraph story on my blog you would realise why it is essentialy a non story.
On the TB thing, yes I agree he should go now, and indeed should have gone before. I just don’t think he will.
16 - Under Mrs Thatcher, no. Her demise was quite unexpected until it the results of the first ballot were known in November 1990 and she continued to govern effectively to the bitter end. Under John Major, yes - through little fault of his own but rather due to the fact that it was apparent by 1995 that we were heading for defeat and nobody took any notice of what he or anyone else in government said or did. That the party was totally consumed by its own internal squabbles naturally made matters even worse.
19 - That’s very kind of you, Infamy, but to be totally honest I think Gordon Brown is going to be an great disappointment to very many people on your side of the fence in political terms, but I agree that a different face (as opposed to ‘fresh’) at the top would at least get things moving again until election fever sets in.
7 - yes, just not sure it’s merely subconscious though!
Pic 1 (top left): I’m as camp as Julian Clary when I suck my cheeks in. Do you like my make-up and my plucked eyebrows?
Pic 2 (top right): I can do Kenneth Williams too. I only had a bit of botex you know!
Pic 3 (lower left): That’s another fine mess you got me into Stanley with your silly questions.
Pic (lower right): Look the war in Iraq was nothing to do with me proving my masculinity. In fact it has nothing to do with me. It’s not fair that the very camp actor who played me on TV is in the movie Blood Diamond, playing a creepy deal-breaker guy in London who just interested in money and power. That’s nothing like me!
I tend to think the paralysis for this “government” would be the least worst option as far as Britain is concerned…
24.”Pic 1 (top left): I’m as camp as Julian Clary ”
I don’t think he looks camp in first picture
15. Yes a bit. I always thought Blair had a touch of Joerg Haider about him (physically if not politically). And Tim Henman’s father Tony could nake a very good George Bush Senior-a-like.
25. Here Here Jon - the less they do, the better.
24 - I apologise Andrea. I thought that was a typical Tony pose!
Not surprising that the actor who played Tony Blair on TV in “The Deal,” about the Blair/Brown relationship also played Blair in the new Hellen Mirren Oscar nominated movie “The Queen,” played Kenneth Williams in a TV biopic!
I congratulate the actor once again, in doing a creepy Blair-like performance in Blood Diamond, playing Simmons who brokers a deal to buy a diamond at the expense of African slaves and child soldiers. Any resemblance to Blair was I am sure purely coincidental, coming from left-leaning movie makers.
I think that’s Blair’s favourite tie.
Christ! The man looks so like Dubya, it’s just scary!
29. Interesting that there have been several recent screen depictions of Blair, all of which have been highly unflattering. He appears to risk going down in history with a very bad reputation. How sad.
I think this is taking Kremninology a bit far - examining every facial expression to detect intentions! Rawnsley has this bit amusingly right in today’s Observer:
“Wondering about the mental state of the Prime Minister as dusk descends on him, I recently asked one of his oldest and closest friends whether Tony Blair was now psychologically prepared for leaving office. ‘Oh no,’ came the reply, accompanied by a laugh that suggested my question was almost ridiculous. ‘Of course, he isn’t. Not in the least. On the day that the removal van draws up outside Number 10, Tony will be looking at his watch and asking, “Is that the time already? Can’t we fit in one last cabinet meeting?”‘”
Precisely. And to be honest, wouldn’t most of us with an interest in politics feel the same? You spend your life trying to do whatever you think is good. You get in a position to do it, and you are the only person in the country in that position. It proves difficult and people criticise you. You’re committed to go in 6 months or so, but you don’t need to go earlier. Do you say, “Oh, sod it, I’ll go and play golf”? Nonsense!
the idea floated on here earlier, that blair wants cameron to win the next election, is absolutely ridiculous.
for a complete guide on the Scottish elections on 3 May including a seat calculator predictor - please click the link
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
re 33. Nick thanks for filling us in on the PM’s mental state. As an aside does your whip warn you about coming on here and being careful about what you say?
To respond to Alex’s point at 7, as the closest we get here to a ‘loyal Blairite’. I’ve always thought the ‘hatred and despair’ about GB wildly exaggerated - it makes good press stories but I’ve never met anyone in Parliament who hated GB. I’m pleased to see Cameron moving the Tories at least atmospherically to the centre, since one has to assume there could be a Tory government again one day, and it’ll be good if it’s on the basis of vaguely centrist rhetoric, as it’ll be make it harder for them to run amok a la Thatcher.
But it’s a long way from that to saying that I’d be pleased to see Cameron win - he doesn’t seem to me really committed to anything in particular, and although I accept he’s not a hard-right zealot, that’s not enough reason to hope he wins. There is, not least, the little fact that if he gets into Government he brings all our old Tory friends with him, and nobody seriously thinks they’ve all magically changed. (Conversely ToryBoy and Sean Fear should not yet despair of him pursuing the True Faith - wait and see some concrete policies.)
36: nope.
37. An air of resignation in that post…is the news finally penetrating the Broxtowe bunker?
33 Nick, I honestly hadn’t read Rawnsley when I made my comment about Blair’s mental state on the previous thread.
I was startled whilst watching his interview today about his subtle but distinct change of appearance and demeanor.
His eyes seemed empty, his defensiveness around his time of departure and (possible) enorsement of Brown seemed petulant, almost childish compared to his erstwhile polished performances under fire. He spoke about “I won the general election in 2005″
and seemed to believe it.
He looked hunted, and whilst we mere mortals can only but imagine what pressures and stree running the Country has on an individual,
it struck me that he suddenly looks and is acting like a man living
on the very edge.
I think he’s going soon, very soon.
37 Hope springs eternal !!
Regards
re 35. Site looks good but “a first for the Scottish Parliament elections we have created an online election predictor” - I ask you!
37 - you’re not really the sort of “loyal Blairite” I was referring to. You’re a loyal Labourite who is therefore loyal to the leader. You may be a “loyal Blairite” now, but you will move seamlessly into being a “loyal Brownite” the moment the takeover happens.
The distinction is that there are two different categories of people among today’s “loyal Blairites”. Those who saw Blairism as a route towards getting the Labour Party into power (into which camp i guess you would fall) are one category, and in the other, those who saw the Labour Party as the route towards getting Blairism (whatever it means) to be the dominating philosophy of British Govt.
The first group will ditch Blairism the moment they think it jeopardises the Labour Party, the latter (and swing voters are obviously potentially part of this) will ditch the Labour Party the moment it threatens Blairism. Obviously this it talking in black and white, where really there is grey - which is where you get the argument (as with Tories and Blair in ‘97) where recent Labour supporters will be ‘relaxed’ about Cameron getting into power.
I have been a great admirer of Tony Blair and still respect him as one of the century’s great politicians, but that was quite simply a disastrous interview and I have never seen him on worse form. Snappish, petualant, repetitive, squirming… he had no answer to any question, slapped Peter Hain, it was painful to watch.
If I were him I’d be tempted to say ’sod the lot of you, you deal with the locals, Gordon’ and quit.
But as a Tory I hope he hangs on. Also interesting that one thing he did say was that he is still looking for a compromise on gay adoptions no matter what the Cabinet says. Good man.
33.”You’re committed to go in 6 months or so, but you don’t need to go earlier.” Nick, this is not about party politics. Can you not see how damaging this paralysis in government is to the running of departments, some of which seem to be falling apart? You do need to go early if all your hanging around for is a 10 year record or a yet to be found legacy while the country grounds to a halt. We have soldiers in two countries and no “plan”, that is not acceptable and they and everyone else deserves better.
37. So Tony Blair and John Reid are on friendly terms with GB and it is all a media fabrication?
Just one for Mike if you read it - it’d be great to read something about prospects for the Welsh and Scottish elections.
45. In Wales things are looking tough for Labour. All the Blair wave seats are reverting to type. But if Blair is there in May, then Plaid may repeat their 99 feat. No coincidence it was Welsh Labour even the loyalistones who’ve been the most mutinous.
46. “No coincidence it was Welsh Labour even the loyalistones who’ve been the most mutinous”
It’s not that simple, for ex I recall Rhondda AM to back Blair during the September crisis
47. I didn’t say all. You can find exceptions anywhere. But as a regional block it’s noticeable how mutinous they’ve been I think, even the ultra loyalist ones.
14 “…It seems that the City still believe in Gordon.”
Herbert Proper, I have noticed this too. I have worked in the City for many years and whilst people do not generally sit around discussing the merits or otherwise of the current Chancellor, one does rather pick up the impression that they think he has, on the whole, carried out his functions passably well. These people, who include businessmen, bankers, lawyers, accountants, economists and the like, would appear unable to see the simple truth which is so abundantly clear to somebody like yourself.
Do you not think, in the interests of the country, you should convey your thoughts direct to them, rather than the visitors to this site?
Or do you think it would be better if we all individually undertook, as our own personal responsibility, to direct any such businessman, bankers, lawyers etc who we encounter in our day to day activities, to the thoughts of Herbert Proper, as set out regularly here on politicalbetting.com ?
49 - Whatever your views on Gordon’s handling of the economy, I’m not sure the views of the city should be taken too much as gospel. Generally they’ve done well because he hasn’t interfered with them - the city’s market place is global and effectively immune to what is going on in this country, provided they aren’t targeted through taxes or regulation directly. And the amounts many get paid, it’s not like increasing levels of personal taxation are going to bother them, even if they don’t try and hide it all off-shore.
re 45. I am planning a couple of pieces but there is so much else going on. I’m aiming for a thread sometime during the week.
There are THREE national polls still to come out before the end of January; there’s the French election; there’s the US and I’ve got a couple of crackers in the pipeline.
What we need on Wales and Scotland is a new poll to hang a story onto. The betting so far has been minimal.
25 - Exactly! I recently saw a thread on another board discussing the John Major years and criticising him for innaction. Haven’t we learnt from the past 10 years that innaction is very much not the worst thing a government can do.
When Gordon Brown gets in you can be sure of one thing. He will feel obliged to do things! No doubt many of the things he does will be things those on this board, currently complaining of paralysis, would rather not be done at all.
The fact is there are hundreds of years of laws on our statute book, many of them put there in the past 10 years. Apart from resigning what do those who complain of paralysis want Blair to do? Another criminal justice act?
50 Of course the City’s view isn’t gospel, Alex. Nor should one be so arrogant as to speak on its behalf, not even one so omniscient as Herbert Proper.
I was simply reflecting what I had picked up from working there for many years. A detailed analysis of Brown’s Chancellorship would require more labour than I am prepared to put in. One sees such analyses from time to time in journals like The Economist and they seem to be on the whole favorable, though by no means without caveat.
Judging by some of the comments on this site you would think Brown is such an ass that it is astonishing ‘The City’ cannot see it. I would think it much more likely that if he were such an ass, ‘The City’ would have made its views known one way or another.
Btw Alex, as a practicising professional in International Tax, I can tell you that it is not ease to ‘..hide it all off-shore’, especially if you are UK tax resident. If you have any plans along these lines, I strongly advise you to reconsider.
“he (Cameron) doesn’t seem to me really committed to anything in particular.”
Is he committed to?
Supercasinos
24 hour drinking
Soft drugs policy
George Bush
Hospital PFIs
Closing police stations
Invading Iran
Ineffective borders
Quadrupling violent crime
Breaking up the UK
Cash for peerages
Pensions blackhole
Letting off Peadophiles
Encouraging underage sex
The poorest being poorer
Police state
ID cards
I have never seen a more loyal Blairite than our resident Labour MP. I understand that he is Vice Chairman of the parliamentary World Government group.
Ironic that he wants a “world government” that will enforce international laws, but defends a war that is regarded around the world as illegal, waged by two men widely regarded as war criminals.
He is prepared to send boys to war, but won’t put a tin hat on himself to kill Iraqis, but is he prepared to defend Tony Blair in a war crimes tribunal? Maybe his dream is that Blair will be president of a World Government.
52.”The fact is there are hundreds of years of laws on our statute book, many of them put there in the past 10 years. Apart from resigning what do those who complain of paralysis want Blair to do? Another criminal justice act?”
Cabinet meetings with some one in charge at the top of the table with authority, Home Office, NHS, POLICY on Iraq/Afghanistan with an emphasis on making sure our soldiers get the right resources and a game plan. Will that do for starters. Governing is not just about passing new legislation but rather the mundane day to day running of departments with a modicum of competence.
49 - that would be presuming i have the money to make such a scheme, legal or illegal, worthwhile. Which i don’t. Not at the moment anyway
54 - why do people insist on acting like editorials from the mail?
51. WRT USA. Really nearly two years to their elections.
55 - you sum it up precisely. The Blairites are obsessed about making things “new.” New laws, New Labour. But sticking a superficial “new” in front of a policy or a party does not fix the problems, without ever getting their hands dirty or following anything through to the nitty gritty detail. Hence headline policies like gambling in every pub that make things a lot worse and not better. They are incapable of doing anything at all right, because they are not governing, they are ruling.
56 I didn’t assume for one moment you did, Alex. I just wanted to dispel if I could the notion that salting away money ‘offshore’ (whatever that might mean) is easy. It ain’t - legally or otherwise.
54 - yes, I think Cameron is pro most of that list, or has been in the past, or will be in the future. But it is hard to tell.
61 Although of course there have been and will be moments in which he also appears to be against these things.
35 - thanks Marcia. Interesting site (if somewhat incomplete in the profiles).
Latest polls info on their site suggest Stuart Dickson’s posting predicting the demise of the Lib Dems north of the border was somewhat ill judged.
Latest polls (on the Weber Shandwick sute) suggest the Lib Dems are up in both consituency and regional votes - which means Lib Dem gains rather than the wipe out Mr Dickson is clearly hoping for.
On an 18% constituency vote I’d say the SNP chances of picking up Gordon and Tweedale etc are remote and give the Lib Dems a fighting chance in Inverness, Strathkelvin and Aberdeen Central with a further Edinburgh seat not out of the question. With only four list seats these would be real gains (with the possible exception of Strathkelvin), without compensatory losses on the list - something that will hamper the Nats chances (particularly in the West of Scotland).
60 - shorthand for tax avoidance schemes. It was a throwaway comment - the basic argument being that from a business perspective Gordon Brown will remain popular because he has made little or no effort to interfere in the city’s operation. And from a personal perspective he is only likely to get complaints from only the most ardent advocates of morally objecting to personal taxation. Many people’s disposable income and/or pension/savings have been eaten up in the last few years, but the business elite are not going to be leading the charge to the barricades.
63. What polls. Any link.
63 - looks quite nice, I’m afraid i gave up when i realised i might have to deign to understand the voting system. No fault of the site, of course
Re 37, Nick Palmer, would have replied sooner but was watching Top Gear.
“I’m pleased to see Cameron moving the Tories at least atmospherically to the centre, since one has to assume there could be a Tory government again one day, and it’ll be good if it’s on the basis of vaguely centrist rhetoric, as it’ll be make it harder for them to run amok a la Thatcher.”
Instead we have your lot running amock in all sorts of other ways!
64 Alex
Gordon and his Boys From The Treasury have made the use of tax avoidance schemes exceeding hazardous in recent years, principally through the introduction of laws that nobody understands.
Somehow I don’t see busines types leading the charge to anybody’s barricade. They’ve generally got better things to do.
68 - well i don’t know. The cricket isn’t going to look that attractive an alternative this year…
Re 52, Lurker terry, in many ways innaction is good
9 NHS reorganisations in 9 years, I mmean I ask you!
51. Mike, it sounds like you have got a good line up this week. Any idea’s about when the last 3 polls will appear?
65 - on front page - YouGov Sunday Times 21/1/07
69 LOL!
68. A tax system so confused and complex it cannot be understood? No wonder the Chancellor gets such plaudits from revered journals like The Economist (chuckle). I’m sure a tax system like that is number one on the recommended list of state-of-the-art economic policies.
74 IMF
I don’t think his approach to anti-avoidance legislation would rank amongst his greatest achievements, even amongst his supporters. It would not however be his most blatant failure, since it is a notoriously difficult subject. Broadly, the alternatives are:-
i) Reams of highly specific, finely calibrated legislation
ii) Judge-made law
iii) A General Anti-Avoidance Rule [GAAR]
You choose.
Just got back from the pub, where my pub quiz team, (normally very good) has just suffered one of its worse defeats,( I’m captain) so I’m pig sick, but the other team did admit we had the harder questions. Tony should take the news from NI today as his high point, he should call in GB tomorrow and say, ‘Gordon its time I shuffled off to the ex-PM’s club, and wrote the memoirs did the US lecture circuit, here are the keys, best of luck’ Will he, don’t suppose so!
You could also choose a very simple but possibly blunt regime with few reliefs…
77. No no, think of the unemployment that would cause among ‘tax specialists’ and lawyers.
Re 76, Coldstone, Would be good for Labour and the country, but know, your right he won’t.
The only consolation I get is that it does help my party.
77 Many countries do just that, Jon. It doesn’t take a genius to work out the down sides though. One of the more obvious is that the interpretation of the law is subject to the whim of the official. When the official and/or the Government changes, so does the whim. This is a major disincentive to investors, who on the whole can tolerate uncertainty even less than high taxes.
78 When I contemplate the massed ranked of tax avoidance professionals, IMF, I am inclined to agree. If you could come up with a solution which reduced their (or rather, our!) number without incurring any of the disadvantages attaching to each of the three alternatives I enumerated earlier, you would be justly feted.
Incidentally, you didn’t indicate your preference. Currently, the UK vacillates between i) and ii) , though Gordon has, somewhat by accident I think, introduced some elements of iii) - hence the considerably and growing uncertainty in the tax planning biz.
Further to 77 & 80 Jon, I should clarify.
A General Anti-Avoidance Rule (which is widely used around the globe) says in principle ‘If I don’t like it, it’s out.’ The ‘I’ in question would be The Chief Inspector of Taxes or some equivalent. It is very simple and effective. It is of course extremely blunt and has therefore the huge disadvantages attaching to any arbitrary and despotic regime.
I have the impression that by talking about tax I have bored everybody off the site.
Ah well, at least it kept The Creatures of the Night at bay.
Re 84, No Peter I was waiting for something I wished to comment on
However I would point out that the tax system has become more complicated and that does not help in many ways.
86 LOL
Don’t give yourself airs, Benedict. You are about as scary as your namesake, Snow White.
Not everybody, Peter.
It’s an issue that I have often contemplated, (sad, I know).
The real solution is that I should personally be the arbiter of the GAAR.
There is no doubt whatsoever that these avoidance cads are effective in finding loopholes and determined to continue to be so.
Mind you, it is only the same mindset that sent the Labour Party (and the Conservative Party) scurrying to find loopholes in PPERA when they came up with loans. So they have no standing if they argue against people seeking out tax loopholes.
ISTM a possible approach is for government to set out a (true) statement of intent (couched, and acknowledged to be couched in broad terms and non-technical language) with the taxation side of its budget, and for it to be considered fair to introduce retrospective anti-avoidance measures if and only if these breach the statement of intent. (Whether this could be made to work I don’t know, but it’s much the same approach as asking local government officers to write reports in plain English.)
87 Martyn
When I worked as a tax manager at CDC Group plc, I often had to delve into the tax legislation of African countries, like Swaziland, Botswana and Zambia. I was struck by how beautifully simple and well-written they tended to be. On discussing this with colleagues, we concluded that the reason was that mostly the legislation had been drafted by British Civil Servants during the colonial period who would typically have had a classical training, probably at Public School and Oxbridge. Now, such a background has some disadvantages but one thing about these guys was that they could sure write good English. Beyond that, the local authorities had a perfectly good idea of what they did or did not consider fair, so in cases of doubt, matters could quickly be resolved with the local officials.
I think the British Tax System started out like this. In fact if you read any early legislation and then some of the famously pithy judgements of Tax Judges like Justice Rowlatt (or more recently, Lord Denning), you pick up some of the same precision and clarity.
The trouble is that as the economy becomes more sophisticated and the means of challenging the legislation become more widely available, the law comes under increasing strain and cannot always cope with the demands made upon it.
Goodness knows where it will all end. Perhaps technology will make our ancient system of taxation redundant. Meanwhile, I think it is fair to say it has become a right mess and if an easy solution is possible, it is far from obvious.
Re 86 Peter, “Don’t give yourself airs, Benedict. You are about as scary as your namesake, Snow White.”
90 ‘I just did not feel I had a useful contribution to make.’
Modesty, Benedict?! Give over. You’ll be telling us you don’t have a blog next!!
Anyway, off to bed now. Big day tomorrow. Got to do my tax return. (Cobbler’s shoes and all that.)
Night folks. Sleep well and don’t dream of tax.
Good night Peter.
From Iain Dale:
“A friend of mine had a phone call from BBC News 24 a couple of days ago wanting Charlie Whelan’s number. “It’s for a piece we’re doing to show on the day Blair resigns,” said the caller. “So when do you reckon that’s going to be then,” asked my friend. “Next week,” came the instant response.
No, I don’t believe it either, but if he did resign this week and I hadn’t posted it, I’d never be able to live with myself.
Thank you and good night!”
Can I just ask…
Where the F*ck is Gordon Brown?, is he back from India yet?
The most important thing I’ve seen him say in the last month has been concerning the ‘Jade’ crisis.
Hiding away like this all the time will bite him on the arse in the end.
Matt.
YouGov/Telegraph
Con 38 (+1) Lab 31 (-2) LD 18 (+1)
Let the spin commence..
Re 94, Kevin, frankly I don’t pay much attention to polls unless they show us Conservatives at 110%!
Is that enough spin?
94. Link to Telegraph poll: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/01/29/npoll29.xml
selective quote: “David Cameron is still unable to pass the 40 per cent threshold needed to gain power, as voters look to alternatives such as the Nationalists, the UK Independence Party or even the BNP.
“
It equals the highest Conservative lead with YouGov since the last election except for one poll on 7/9/06 where they had an 8% lead.
So a good poll for the Conservatives.
97. Good effort Mike. The Conservatives have had a 7+ lead with YouGov in 7 of their last 14 polls, so this one doesn’t mark a major advance.
98. True but what I said at post 97 is also true.
In fact compared to the last few YouGov polls it does represent a modest advance. The last 5 YouGov polls before today (in chronological order, oldest first) had leads of:
0, 7, 5, 4, 5
Note that the YouGov poll was carried out between Monday and Wednesday last week.
Alex - “their apparent despair and hatred of Gordon Brown could be causing them to see things in Cameron that aren’t actually there”
As do some journalists at the Observer, apparently.
PtP - both the Lib Dem Tax Commission and the (non-binding) Conservatice Forsyth Commission came down in favour of a GAAR (with clearance system & abolition of most specific anti-avoidance rules). That’s also the solution I favour.
btw the “Oxonian” who posted about TB’s tie above wasn’t me, but I guess there are plenty of us! My moniker is simply an homage to Tabman
Maybe you are making too much of this, Mr Smithson - he might just be having a ’seven limoncello’ moment, a la Danny DeVito….
I feel sorry for him. He had an unrivalled ability to change the country with a whopping majority. Instead he wasted it, and now he’ll be remembered for Iraq.
That’s what happens when you go seeking a legacy - he should have remembered that Churchill had “greatness thrust upon him”.