Was Alistair Campbell behind this move to get Gordon?
January 29th, 2007
Who else would want to embarrass Brown over his support for Scotland?
On the face of it yesterday’s Mail on Sunday story quoting from a 13 year old article that Gordon Brown had written about his support for Scottish football was just something to chuckle about.
But on closer examination it looked more serious than that. For what could be more embarrassing than for Brown’s comments such as his saluting of the Scottish hooligans who tore up the Wembley turf and broke the crossbar after a victory over England, to be highlighted just as his “Britishness” initiative gets under way.
So who could have done such a thing with such immaculate timing? Was somebody out to get Gordon?
Two words in a paragraph towards the end of the feature appears to explain everything. For it stated that the Brown article was published in 1994 in a book that had been edited by one Alastair Campbell. Yes him.
The question for anybody betting on the Labour leadership must be - “Is the former spin-master be out to get Brown - and if so how seriously should we take it?”
I have no idea whether Campbell had anything to do with yesterday’s article or not - but the fact that he must have known for years what was in the book that he edited and the extraordinary convenience of the timing makes me suspicious.
And if Campbell is working against Brown then might we see more “revelations” like this. After all Campbell knows where all NuLab’s bodies are buried.
If Campbell is getting involved with moves like this then Gordon’s chances of the top job are a little bit less certain than they were last week.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
oh come on, this is getting stupid. Does anyone really think the Mail on Sunday needs Alistair Campbell to tell them to attack Gordon Brown? My money says it’s straight from CCO.
Mike if your story were true, The mail’s story would be “Top Blair adviser knifes Brown”
Yawn…sorry, Mike, but the ‘might Gordon not get it?’ idea has been dead for at least 9 months. That, of course, is why the Mail has disinterred the story.
Also, look at the by-line. I can’t think of anyone less likely to get a story from Alistair Campbell than the author of this book.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/main.jhtml?xml=/arts/2004/07/18/boobo18.xml
Do much denial so quickly. What’s up Doc?
While we are talking of Scotland, I see that the YouGov poll we were discussing on the last thread has a breakdown for Scotland of Lab 31, SNP 30, Lib Dem 18, Conservatives 18 (all %).
Thanks for the article Mike. We don’t know if it os Alsitair, but if it is, he will get Gordon, you can be sure of that!
Not only that, but Conservatives must be pouring over old books like that to see what other ammo they can get, and then leak.
of dear for Gordon!
4. Oh, you know… just the ceaseless urge of the light to quench darkness… or am I trying to invoke the trusty shield of traditional British fair play
Posted on the previous thread that the BrandIndex ratings for last week are on the YouGov website .
Adds a whole new meaning to A*tro-turfing.
And btw, the correct spelling is Alastair.
As you say, BW, there might well, indeed must be, a lot more of that sort of thing out there. Whether people take it seriously or not I do not know.
But a steady drip, drip, drip will have an effect for sure. And the longer the waiting period the more opportunity there is for serious and sustained damage to Brown’s image.
After a time people can’t remember why they distrust or dislike someone in politics, its just an unshakable picture in their heads. The fact that some of the stuff that put it there is a little off colour will matter not at all.
Its the sort of thing that Labour having been doing for the last 12 years or more and it worked well. Until now.
So Brown’s ‘Britishness’ is a fraud. Well there’s a big surprise. Rather like Blair’s ‘love for the pound’…remember that?
9. aaah the mispelling shows I’m the out of the loop nobody i’ve always claimed to be!
To be serious for a moment, Benedict (and RaQ) are right to say that the real interest in this is that the Tories are getting better at finding little stories like this- and that the right wing hacks have got an appetitie for them.
This story in itself is nothing.
11 Tories need to wake up to the fact that supporting the Scottish football team IS 100% compatable with being British. You’d have to be pretty odd to be Scottish and not delight in Scotland beating England.
I suppose someone who enjoys watch Arsenal defeat Man U is not English? I suppose some southern Tories just can’t get that England does not equal Britain.
The idea that this came from AC is possible I suppose, what are the facts?
6 Benedict- trawling over what someome has done and said is pretty dangerous territory for the Tories especially when the two leading members of the party are respectively a self implicated class A drug user, and an advocate of the hanging of Mandela. I think gloating over soccer matches is pretty small beer.
Tyson
No disrepect but Mandela’s shirts are criminal and hes a repeat offender…..
Does Dr Nicholas Palmer MP ever do any work?
I see that he was posting on PB.com today at 6.43, 10.53, 3.36 and 3.39? and with similar frequency most days!
Nick P: Gosh, so defensive today?
I dont think the story is a “Gordon wont get it” theme, it is a “Gordon will be a damaged PM” theme. As such it could come from either a Blairite or any anti-Labour source (Many traditional Labour supporters would argue Blairite and anti-Labour are the same thing!)
13. Jonathan, it is not the conservatives who were spinning that line. It was Gordon Brown, the only Scotsman I know who’s favourite goal was a Paul Gascoigne effort which helped knock Scotland out of the European cup!
Who ever found this little gem is immaterial, but the fact that Brown’s whole strategy on “Britishness” is just one big open goal.
17 The story won’t do damge as it is basically he’s done nothing wrong at all. Anyone with half a brain can see that.
5. I know we shouldn’t get too excited about the regional breakdowns of these polls, but the Tory ratings for London and ‘Rest of the South’ in the YouGov pollsare very high and imply a huge swing from the GE result…with the Lib Dems the biggest losers. A result like that in a real election would sweep away most of the Lib Dems’ MPs…
13. I’d agree. Anyone who saw the sheer delight amongst when Northern Ireland fans when they beat England a while back can relate to that point.
I think the problem is Gordon has hung himself on a hook, not one thats important, but its a hook all the same. All the guy had to say was, Scotland vs England, I’ll back Scotland, I am Scottish….England playing anyone else (other than one of the other home nations then he’d be neutral) I’ll back England. There would have no issue, however trivial, at all.
Maybe the problem is that he just doesn’t know much about football…which I agree is a crime.
20, Perfectly relevant, its the swing voters where it matters who I’ve been banging on about again and again. The headline figures count for not much.
16 Barry- I have seen some quite ridiculous posts in pbCOM, but this surely ranks as one of the most puerile!!!!
Isnt the worry Nick that is as two faced as other politicians his “It wasn’t me guv” approach to the last 10 years will be difficult to sustain.
I dont see how he can make big headline grabbing changes such as pulling out of Iraq, cutting Doctors pay by 25%,abolishing Scottish Assembly etc., without being asked “How come you went along with the previous policy then”
Mike think I missed the result of the new unexpected policy that Cameron announced at the conference but wouldn’t a “What unexpected (perhaps non manifesto?) initiative will Gordon announce in the week he takes over”
17. Yes I think it’s clear the Blair camp, having failed to stop GB getting the succession, now want to see him defeated at the GE to allow them to force him out then and get in a candidate of their own.
21.”Maybe the problem is that he just doesn’t know much about football…which I agree is a crime.”
Yokel, the problem is that he does know a lot about footie! It makes his comments even more two faced as a result.
Re 12, Britspin, If true, and Brown was happy about holliganism, frankly I can’t see it doing his career any good!
And you are right we will be looking for the stories, but were *cough* waiting for the man to get the job
So it was not us!
24 Partisan yawn. It’s all a bit like Cam the man on Black Wednesday. “it wasn’t me”
23.Tyson, he was well beaten by your comments @14, so your faux outrage would be more believable if it was more balanced.
Re 13, and 14, Jonathan and Tyson there are two seperate stories. Firstly that Brown’s best fottball moment was Gazza’s goal against Scotland in the 1996 Euro’s, that seems to be *cough* rumbled (as well as odd, after all why would it be?) The second major issue is being supportive in any way shape manner or form of football holiganism. I mean can you imagine any serious politician taking that view?
20. And Cons ahead by 2% on who would run the economy better..
20 Yellow Peril - dream on.
15-Yokel- quite agree- the persistent donning of those shirts should be a capital offence.
Wrong on Brown and footie though- apparently the man is a great fan, and goes into the deepest depressions when Scotland lose.
I do not think Brown said that he “enjoyed” Gasgoine’s goal, admired yes, brilliant yes, memorable yes, but not quite enjoyed. What was most remarakable about that game though was how the ball appeared to move by itself before McCallister’s penalty miss. I may be an atheist, but that was the closing thing to a miracle I have ever seen.
If I was making overtures to the Argentinians I may well cite Maradona’s 2nd goal against England in the 1986 quarters. To be fair to Gordo I think he was clumsily attempting this kind of thing rather than being deliberately disengenuous.
Cameron though clearly has no interest in football- something I am much more profoundly worried about!!!
There’s only one serious ’spinner’ who wants Brown to fall flat on his face - and it is not Campbell. Look across the water to the guy who enjoys Brazilian whacks!
Re 33, Tyson, what about Gordon’s comments on Scotish football holligans?
23 ChrisD- I really did find Barry’s post at 16 well out of order. I welcome Nick P’s contribution to this site- although he is a bit too New labour for my liking, but then once you become a politcian, and tie yourself into a party you are not allowed to use the critical half of your brain that makes you think too deeply about things.
26/33. Which makes it all the more inexplicable why he used such lines. He would know all about loyalties. Sure its a small thing but it’ll just get raised and raised again.
What I want is a leader who knows how to scream at the TV with a beer or a very large mug of tea and a king sized packet osf crisps by his side. Anything, but the type that TV advertising types seem to believe represent archetypal football fans, designer stubble, toussled hair, a fair balance of men and women sat round a big TV with just about the cleanest carpet and sofas ever…that furniture hasnt seen a wine and cheese party never mind a proper football crowd…. If Cameron has his head screwed on he’ll not claim anything on football, it’ll just be trouble.
Whos Gordon support by the way?
Has anybody got any views on the new Casino licence? The market seems to suggest that Blackpool is home and hosed…I’d be grateful if anybody wanted to post some odds and put some liquidity up on Betfair…I know that Paddy Power make Blackpool the 1/2 favourite…
32.
“20 Yellow Peril - dream on.”
But waht substance is he dreaming on? And which of his Shadow Cabinet mates can get me some soonest?
It looks like Campbell’s sort of dirty work.
This sums up the wreckage that is the Labour Party.
A party at war, waged by unelected backstabbers.
No wonder the rats are crawling away from the sinking ship.
38. Bazz
Bear in mind that the group reporting gives their recommendation only. Whilst it would be very unlikely that the government wouldnt follow that recommendation, its theoretically possible.
Secondly, there is the possibility that the losers may go to court…could drag out the bet depending on the terms.
Blackpool is indeed rumoured to be almost certain, probably why absolutely no money in the market.
Bendict 35 -I’ve got to say I thought that wembley pitch invasion was a real hoot, especially when the Scots clambered on the goal post, and it snapped in two, so am probably not in the best position to exert judgement here.
I am too much of a Scottophile to be objective here- the accent, the camaraderie, the intelligence, the scenery, the humour, the music, literature, art, the nature, the whisky- Scotland punches well above its weight internationally and culturally. I can understand how the country completely repudiates the Tories. I am happy to pay for the Scottish settlement (less so for the Welsh mind and would be delighted to see a unified Ireland) and was sorry to see the country’s Westminster MP’s culled numerically at the last election.
37 Yokel- I think he is a Hibies fan.
Hibs? How in the name of god did he come up with that?
By the way Tyson, no chance of a United Ireland in a long time, thank the lord for democracy…….
Yokel- thought that you might not be a leading advocate for a unified Ireland!!
Gordon is a proddie from Kilcaddie- there can only be one outcome in terms of football affiliations.
Re 42, Tyson, It is one thing liking the Scotts and Scotland, approving of hooliganism is another matter all together.
Think Gordon supports Raith Rovers. If so, he’s a genuine football fan. (And yes, there ARE genuine fans of premiership teams, but there area also a lot who aren’t - whereas you get few people jumping aboard the Raith Rovers bandwagon.)
Cameron ’supports’ Aston Villa - but only in a ‘whose results do you look for’ way - I don’t think he claims any particular level of dedication to them.
Who does
a) Ming
b) Alex Salmond
c) Ian Paisley
d) Gerry Adams
support?
42 - Tyson - I like the Scots - in most respects you mention. However, I also like the Canadians. But I wouldn’t want a whole bunch of their MPs turning up to govern us either, especially if we had to pay for the privilege.
Although if Scottish MPs were disproportionately Conservative I can see that I might be tying myself in logical knots trying to justify the WLQ, too.
45 - surely a proddie would be less likely to support Hibs (if by citing Kircaldy you expect him to support an Edinburgh team)? But I still think he supports his local team - Raith. ‘They’ll be dancing in the streets of Raith tonight’, etc…
I am afraid this piece really is not up to your usual standard Mike. Is is completely unbelieveable that Alistair Campbell would be behind this type of article in the current situation. Alistair is a Labour Party diehard to the bottom of his boots. So knocking the next Labour prime minister is just not something he will do. There may well be people who are not very keen on Gordon, clearly you cant be around in politics as long as he has without picking up some enemies but there is no credible candidate but him for the leadership and there is no chaos or civil war in the Labour Party over the succesion. Outside of the left those who arent great fans have reluctantly accepted the fact of the inevitabilty of Gordon’s position. There might be a challange from John McDonnell or Michael Meacher if they can get the number of nominations required ( doubtful ) but they will not win even if they provide a proper contest.
The function of this sort of article is to attack Brown with a view to the next general election.
cookie- you are right I remember now it is Raith- another choice option for the proddie from Kilcaddie (Gordo).
And we have been pretty much ruled by a bunch of dim witted yanks for the last few years!!
Isn’t this really about asymmetric devolution. By emphasising Britishness it is more palatable?
42. Tyson’s ‘love of the Scots’ is really just the flipside of the loathing for the English which is the mark of most lefties of his ilk.
16 Barry?! You’ve got a cheek showing your face on here after your ‘Newsnight’ post.
Go do some work.
Scotsman 22nd May:
“In Mr Brown’s reply, the Chancellor said “of course” he would be supporting England: “Two-thirds of all Scots want England to win, and I’m certainly one of them. And I’ll be there in person to support them for the final group game against Sweden in Cologne.”
He also pointed to Gascoigne’s skilful goal that secured a 2-0 England win over Scotland in the Euro 96 competition as one of his most memorable football moments.
He said: “[I have been to] lots of England matches, but the most memorable were the Euro 96 game against Scotland, with Gazza’s great goal, and the 0-0 game in Rome the following year when England held on to qualify for France 98.”
Alex Salmond, the SNP’s leader, poured scorn on Mr Brown’s comments. “I can’t believe that any genuine Scottish football fan could believe that a goal scored against us was his most memorable moment.
“Gordon Brown had better be careful with his recent spate of Union Jack-wearing comments, or real English football fans will begin to smell a rat.”"
38 Baz - Super Casino Licence
I got involved to small stakes and regretted it almost immediately. Blackpool was suddenly and inexplicably supported to fairly large sums a few weeks back. There were no news reports or other bits of ‘form’ to justify it so you have to wonder about inside information.
I suspect this is a case where the market moves are very significant.
Whiffs a bit. I wouldn’t touch it.
brown is a serious footy fan he even gave several thousand pounds to help bail out his team from bankcruptcy
55 The problem for Brown is the poor political nous that this shows, not realising that it would please neither the Scots nor be believable to many of the English supporters.
He seems to be getting a bit of a track record in this. Remember the credit card for yobs to keep them off the streets? Excessive self importance in setting himself the target of enuring everyone in the world is literate? Now Britishness.
57. Yes - good at giving away other people’s cash, isn’t he?
Witanagemot As a Witan myself I wonder how many more counsellors there are.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witan
The report is of course a load of old codswallop, except insofar as it shows a lack of deftness in his public relations, as RaQ and others have indicated.
The contrast with Blair is in this respect very striking. Of course, not everybody would think contrasting with Blair is a bad thing.
JGC If you meant ” It (not Is) is completely unbelieveable that Alistair Campbell would be behind this type of article in the current situation.” You are sadly unaware of the psychology of the man.
This is in all probability a non-story: something written a long time ago appearing in a newspaper hostile to Labour. I agree with those above who doubt that Campbell was behind it, though I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was an inside job from another less high-profile source.
The most pertinant post is Rent-a-Quote’s, who is right when he says that it’s not just this story, but a series of initiatives and comments beyond the economic sphere that betray an insufficient level of media instinct or public understanding for someone who aspires to lead a political party.
60. Dunno…lots of un-Witan posters to choose from though.
It shows Gordon’s discomfort and inability to spin a line - he reminds me of Ted Heath in his inability to look at ease. It didn’t necessarily damage Ted though, winning an an election against the odds (though he went on to lose the next two).
He would do better to be the Scotsman he is, full of pride at Scotland’s achievements and what it has put into Britain.
What’s all this rubbish about Gordon and soccer? Everyone knows that, despite his youthful accident, Brown prefers playing with bent balls.
I agree with the first couple of comments. A miscellaneous Tory happened to spot it. Or possibly even a journalist.
I’ve never met any of these people but Alistair Campbell is tribally Labour by his own admission. (It’s the ‘tribally’ that makes it an admission by the way, not the Labour.) Tribally Labour people will not be knifing Brown at this point, not now that there’s so little chance of Brown not making it. It’s Tories, oh or possibly Lib Dems, who’ll be up to this.
The Daily Mail, is that the Daily Mail, y’know the Zinoviev Letter, Hooray for the Black Shirts, that Daily Mail: OK it s the Mail on Sunday, but a rose by any other name.
Of course according to the present Lord Rothermere, its support for the Fascists/Nazis was a ‘temporary aberration’ really Rothermere’s relationship with Princess Stephanie von Hohenlohe, shows that to be a lie. Von Hohenlohe was being paid by Rothermere as his European emissary, up to December 1938 £5000 per year about £200,000 in today’s money, when they fell out she took Rothermere to court, for breach of contract. Rothermere admitted in court he had paid her £150,000 for less than six years service, thats in 1933 to 38.
In March 1938 (so much for brief aberration) Von Hohenlohe’s lawyer Erno Wittman was intercepted at Victoria station, MI6 took possession of his briefcase. He was carrying correspondence relating to the case including a letter from the German government that Berlin had given to the lawyer to help the princess’s case. There was also correspondence between Lord Rothermere and Hitler. Details of the correspondence from Rothermere were circulated in the intelligence services. It included a very indiscreet letter to the Fuhrer congratulating him on his walk into Prague, Hitler having sent troops into the Czech capital in early 1939 in breach of the Munich agreement of the previous year. The note urged Hitler to follow up his coup with the invasion of Romania. The rest of the contents of the briefcase, have never been revealed.
According to the FBI briefing notes for FDR, which I obtained from the FDR library, Von Hohenlohe’s castle Leopoldskron Castle in Saltzburg, (confiscated from Max Reinhardt) which Von Hohenlohe claimed had been given to her by Hitler, was in fact being tented from the Nazis, the rent being paid by Rothermere. Wouldn’t it be wonderful if the full contents of the Wittman briefcase were made public.
Oh yes you can always trust Mail newspapers and its owners.
re 44. Yokel any chance that the electors will realised that the last 4 years have been wasted and swing back to the UUP and SDLP? And will we be getting any NI polls?
47 -
b = Hearts. He and Max have something in common at least.
Just reconfirms what everyone already knew that the Brown Britishness stuff is crap,as somebody already pointed out, why doesn’t he just focus on being himself.
Still it should be fun when he eventually takes over,what with Alex Salmond installed in Scotland banging the independence drum and the elecorate in England questioning the legitamacy of Brown’s legisalation when it has no consequences for his own constituents.
And for good measure we should have another attempt by the EU to ratify a new european constitution.
67 - I agree, someone who remembers all political trivia saw it. Like if I wanted to know something really obscure, I would come here and ask Andrea.
Fwiw, I’ve spoken to a couple of Scots who loved Gazza’s goal even though they hated its being scored against Scotland.
In the same way, most England fans acknowledge the consumate skill in Maradona’s second goal aginst England, even though five minutes earlier they’d gladly have seen him shot for the first (hand of God) goal.
I notice that the since Guido’s and ID’s blog items today that the price on a Q1 departure seems to have hardened a touch to 15.5/1. It was 18/1 a few days ago.
65. Heath lost three of the four elections he contested. In 1970, it was Powell who won the election for the Tories, not Heath.
73 I think I have said this before, but Greenidge and Gomes scoring 287 stays with me as a performance you had to admire, even though it was exactly what you didn’t want to see. I really don’t see the fuss on this.
Re 68, Coldstone. I don’t care much for the Daily Fascist or its proprietor either. That said, that does not mean you can ignore what it prints.
77 - Benedict maybe fair comment on the first Lord Rothermere but I think a harsh judgement on the current Rothermere whose father Vere Harmsworth did after all try to balance the account by ending up a staunch republican on the Labour benches
76 - yes, in fairness, he said it was his most memorable moment in an England game, not in football as a whole.
75. Given Powell had been ousted in 68 how exactly.
I got sent the booklet last week by the SNP. Freedom for Scotland!
75,As a student of British Govt + Politics,I was taught that England’s quarter-final World Cup defeat four days before polling day in 1970 induced ’such a groan of disappointment’ you could feel the mood change -data from the Butler-Kavanagh guide to the 1970 election day shows:
Sat.13th Jun 1970 12.4% lead in NOP poll
Mon.15th Jun 1970 6% lead(Later that day,disastrous balance of payment figures were published)
Tue 16th Jun 1970 3% lead
Wed.17th Jun 1970 1% lead
Thu.18th Jun 1970 Actual result 3.4% Tory lead-within the margin of error for the day before,election eve
82. On t’ther hand it could be the Polls were simply out and not picking up an actual Tory lead a’la 1992.
Cymru Mark Padarn/Gwynfa about.
83 - Harris consistently showed a Tory lead in 1992 - by up to 8 points (the eventual margin). But Harris didn’t trust their own results after looking at the others, so changed their methodology as polling day approached.
84. The only one. Can’t help but wonder if the surprise 70 Conservative Party victory would have been such a surprise with more accurate polling.
Re 78, Ted, maybe, but I find what they write bit to type.
Re 84, SBS, I bet they must have chocked when the result came through!
Simon walters enough said. This is one of his weakest for a long while.
Something mentioned earlier caught my eye and was wondering if can anyone can verify it or otherwise? Do parties who are second always pick up support during an election campaign? The last time that labour were second was in 1987 wasn’t it?
The understatement of the tory vote has been well documented since then so their initial second place has always improved but my memory is hazy as to what movement occurred during earlier campaigns.
89 - “The last time that labour were second was in 1987 wasn’t it?” I think you’ll find Labour were second in 1992.
89. I presume ukpaul meant does the party starting the campaign in second pick up support? Just going by the ICM and Mori figures linked on the site, the answer is ‘not always’, but some of the polling is so erratic that it’s difficult to tell. I certainly wouldn’t rely on that sort of rule for comfort - there’s probably something in it because parties in the lead get scrutinised more and their drawbacks show up, but that’s all.
91. IIRC Labour dropped support in 1983.
Has anyone noticed how David Cameron is getting better looking by the day?
90 - Not at the start of the campaign they weren’t, I’m pretty sure they started ahead in 1992.
O/T Cameron’s attack on Muslim groups for encouraging division and extremism is very exciting news. It will go down very well with the voters I suspect.
94 I think you are right. But didn’t they start in front, drop behind, catch up again, storm ahead, falter but maintain some sort of lead until polling day? They were even ahead on the exit poll iirc. Only the votes in the box went really wrong for them.
Don’t believe the polls was the lesson of 1992.
94 - fair enough (except for Harris polls!).
I think Labour started a clear second in 1983, and in the end there was only 2% in it. One poll, I believe put them neck and neck with the Alliance. I recall David Steel saying the Alliance had caught Labour, and the question was “can we catch the Tories before polling day, and I believe we can.” Another classic along the lines of “go back to your constituencies and prepare for government.”
96. No they weren’t ahead in the exit poll, the Tories were. But the BBC got egg on their faces by announcing the result would ‘definitely’ be within the MoE of the exit poll….which it wasn’t. Jack Cunningham (remember him?) announced ‘the Tories have lost the right to govern’ immediately after the exit poll was unveiled. Fool.
o/t Paul Channon dead at 71. Today is the 48th anniversary of him entering the House aged 23, succeeding his father, grandmother and grandfather in the same seat, Southend West.
On a darker note, he was fingered as helping build Saddam’s nerve gas plant…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,,908301,00.html
98 Was the story that the exit poll had Labour as largest party? (The Tories rather large lead only gave them a small majority and left Major at the mercy of Bill cash et al).
(Jack Cunningham: if only he was just a fool.)
98. Must admit I sat watching the BBC coverage unravel before their eyes. Remember Jon Snow and the HoC’s display which started with red in the government side.
Has the Parliament channel ever shown that election coverage again?
O/T but impressive discipline from the people within the DCMS who know where the Casino license has gone. The Betfair market still has them as close on evens the pair, after the result is already decided
69. Doubt it, not to any great degree. The SDLP are rumoured to be bullish but we may have is the phenomenon of both SDLP & UUP supporters who previously wouldn’t give preferences to the SF & DUP before possibly doing so this time, as a kind of encouragement to the deal making elements in both thus ensuring a decent depth of support and keeping them floating nicely at the top of the pile.
Given that the last Assembly elections were a few years ago, and both the DUP & to a lesser extent SF have strengthened since then you might expect both to gain seats. The DUP are possibly in a better position to take UUP votes since they have by and large got a ‘better’ deal that unionists were after. The fringe unionist groups, such as the PUP & UKUP may also get wiped out, with the DUP likely beneficiaries to pick up those.
Overall, however, I really wouldnt like to predict anything right now until people start getting out on the stump. The rejectionists on both sides have yet to fully show their hand and its impossible to gauge their strength and thus what impact they may have (they both look a bit of a mess to be frank). The stay at homes are also an issue, particularly for SF.
56. PtP, I notice your comments n the Super Casino business. I havent followed it much (other than Prescott’s entanglement) and certainly. Initially I got the impression Greenwich was out in front then suddenly its Blackpool is a racing cert. No idea why but I was struck by the sense of confidence about the reports and just took them as accurate. What I do know is that Blackpool are threatening legal action if they don’t get it, they arent happy that some work has started on the Greenwich site already and that the panel involved in making the recommendation have taken that into account in their deliberations. Blackpool seem to see this as unfair. I’m guessing that another bidding location may take similar action so it could get dragged out big style thus making it a doubly risky market.
I’d like it to be Blackpool, we could have our own equivalent of a big Vegas Hotel there with stars like Bobby Davro & Duncan Norville appearing and Su Pollard doing some tunes, Paul Daniels doing magic…I’d go for that.
1992 would appear to be (as per elections since) one where the second placed party at the start gained during the campaign, all these have been tory second places though so the pattern may have different polling related factors at play.
With 79, 83 & 87 was there any evidence of labour picking up steam (suggestions are definitely not for 83)? I’m just trying to work out how a starting position with labour behind would play out during a campaign.
84, SBS yes, I can confirm as the chief Harris pollster in 1992 that that’s about true!
98, the final Harris/ITN exit poll figures had a 5% Tory lead. If we’d added the differential refusal rate that experience told us about (Conservative voters less likely to take part in poll) we would have been pretty much spot on the actual 8% lead.
It wasn’t the exit poll that was wrong, it was us - me included; we didn’t really believe that the result would be so different from the predictions and the vast bulk of the polls during the campaign -so basically, we bottled it!
However, I had bets from a couple of years before on another C victory and never took them out ….
100. What hopes for Wales from the yellow corner this May.
101 - Not yet, but apparently it will be shown sometime this year.
I’m bored. Does anyone know of a good sight to follow the US Presidential race?
106 - Punter, I’ve posted an answer to your previous question on the last thread.
102 Alex
I may have unfairly maligned the DCMS earlier. It does indeed look as though the result is being kept a closely guarded secret.
109. Yes just replied thanks.
108. I check out radio stuff from NPR.org & C-SPAN as for running articles & reports. Its fairly neat and concise.
103 Yokel
Have you any idea what your final paragraph has done to your credibility?
Think about it. Maybe Mike will allow it to be deleted.
Re 97, SBS,
Answering my own question slightly, according to MORI labour lost support in the 83 campaign and stayed static in 87, I can’t access any polls further back than that. This is the internet, surely someone must be mad enough to compile all polls going back to the dawn of time!
113. You know I had to go back and read it because I thought I’d said something controversial.
Let me tell you, the silent majority of us that want end of the pier style entertainment back on the boig stage it deserves will not be silenced by taunts about our lack of ‘cool’. Just because our campaign to bring back Summertime Special didnt succeed first time around doesn’t mean we’ll give up! We intend to hold a candlelit vigil in late summer to remember the anniversary of the last such show being broadcast. We’ve already got Roger DeCourcy & Bob Carolgees agreeing to lend support….
Seriously Yokel, I suspect Blackpool will get it. All logic points that way. The Dome would get an embarrassment off the Government’s hands but if it won on political grounds there would be a right stink.
I got stuck with an ill-judged bet on Greenwich early in the proceedings. I may just be able to lay a bit off but it looks like a loser.
I was a bit put out by some of the heavy dosh that went on Blackpool a few weeks back but on reflection it may not have been inside information that caused it. It’s a thin market and one of Blackpool’s backers is none other than Trevor Hemmings, the leading racehorse owner. He could have shifted the market with small change. There might well have been some sound reason for doing just that.
You weren’t serious about Bobbie Davro and the rest, were you?
You were, weren’t you.
Wow!
117..It was and still is the gold standard of entertainment..though I can see why Bob Carolgees would be keen to get involved in a candlelit vigil…see here…
http://www.carolgeescandles.com/
I do draw the line at the Grumbleweeds though……..
Actually, I enjoyed Bob Carolgees in his Tiswas days. Used to make the kids watch it. They hated it but I insisted it was good for them. I was half right. One became a horticulturalist (working briefly in Kilkeel incidentally).
The other became a lawyer, I’m afraid.
Can’t win ‘em all.
120. What about the Crankies?
122 - IM
Is that an attempt to set a new PB record for how far you can get the discussion off-thread?
Keith and Orville?
120. The Toughs are definitely in, even though when you actually analyse the rational of their act its somewhat disturbing….
121. I have to say I think Bob’s venture is just fantastic. Great little piece of entrepreneurship, at least I hope it is!
It seems to me that London is the obvious place to put it. It’s the only place big enough to absorb it without being corrupted by it.
I also think that Blackpool are taking a big risk, an effective all or nothing bet on it succeeding. Should there be a change in political sentiment, with or without a change of government, it surely isn’t certain that the Super Casino will be a permanent fixture.
123/124. It can go farrrr off thread……..
I’m just waiting for someone to say this form of grand entertainment wasnt PC and represented some kind of succour to the BNP or something….
By the way to go back to betting, its worth checking out the reported figures for the Iowa caucus for the Democrats. It could bear well for my early idea of backing and laying for shifts in the market rather than straight winners & losers. Hillary for example is not polling too good while Edwards is doing well. If the results turned out similiar I believe we could see plenty of back and forth swings on the Betfair’s as people over react, thus maybe providing value.
“I’m just waiting for someone to say this form of grand entertainment wasnt PC and represented some kind of succour to the BNP or something….”
I think you are safe. All this Music Hall chat seems to have driven away The Creatures of the Night.
I find posts on Tax have much the same effect. Mind you, they have that effect on everybody. I finished up talking to myself here the other night.
Tax doesnt have to be taxing..just ignore it………..
126. London uncorruptible. Interesting theory.
By the way I forgot to mention laying Black Jack Ketchum at the weekend. I was going to post it here on Saturday morning then thought no one would be interested. Do’h.
127 You are right, in principle, Yokel but your best laid plans can be thrown out by the illogicality of punters in such ‘immature’ markets. The market moves may defy all logic.
I suggest the same as I would for The Creatures of the Night - small stakes.
131 I was at Cheltenham on Saturday. We did think of opposing BJK but decided it was too much of a guess. In fact he was cruising two out. (I wonder what Betfair was showing at that point?) He went out like a light. I have seldom seen such a pathetic figure as he hobbled up the hill. He looked lame to me and I was astonished McCoy didn’t dismount.
What now for Cheltenham? Assuming it’s not a bog, do you lay or play?
Some amusing comments, but whilst we are *cough* off thread, I have some stuff on both that Cameron speech and 18 Doughty Street being on newsnight on my blog.
Whoever supplied the story, it’s useful because it helps us assess the balance between expedience/ambition and deeply held principle for Gordon Brown. And what we get is:
Ambition 10 Principle 0
And I will enjoy anything which damages the guy who brought in our mind-boggling captal gains taxation, and has greedily wasted so many billions.
132. I’m well aware of it. Most of my success on the political markets comes from what I think are going to be flaws in punters views. Use the same with the nags on occasion though rarely on other sports where I’m all straight wins and losses. My pontifications about the stream of UK polls at the moment are one example of wher I think punters are getting it wrong.
I am depending on punters being illogical and following the money too often. At this stage my focus and (and money) is on Edwards, I still see Edwards as stronger candidate than the markets rated him as, he can win the nomination. I believe his odds will shorten on early results. I also have a small lay on Hillary. I think, for example, some of the market is driven by the Hillary & Obama hype, whilst Edwards has been on the stump for years now and with good support in the organised Labour should have some money to keep him going. He’s going to poll well, better than his odds indicate and I can see them dropping. Hillary, has every chance as well and my lay on her is a different kind of bet essentially based on my belief that punters have overestimated her chances and once reality kicks in that shes in for a tough fight and many results won’t go her way, provide a sharp correction to her price during the early stages of the campaign. It wouldnt surprise me if her odds then shortened if she still pitching later on but I’m looking at her purely from an odds shifting perspective while with Edwards I think he’s a good win bet and also offers a chance to hedge as the caampaign rolls on. Someone has got to slip if my feel on Edwards is right and I believe its Hillary, at least early on.
Hope that makes sense.
re 135. Come on - one of Gordon’s great successes has been his approach to enterprise through the huge extension of capital gains tax relief to those who invest in new companies. I invested in a start-up company that is now employing dozens of people. When I cash out thanks to Gordon I will only pay 10% CGT and not 40% on my capital appreciation. That’s a massive saving and a big incentive.
Unfortunately my party, the Lib Dems, wants to abolish Gordon’s exemption.
135 John Gibson
CGT was introduced in 1965. I don’t think any party has plans to abolish it.
Re 137, Mike, whilst it is a good and encouraging rule, I had not heard of it so wont have changed my behaviour.
That said a lot of the things Gordon has done has not helped.
I of course agree on your critisism of the Liberal Democrats
70 Marcia and others - Brown is (and always has been) a Raith Rovers fan:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/r/raith_rovers/4568902.stm
This story is as much tosh as Alex Salmond’s (an unrepentant Jambo) attack on Brown’s Gascoigne goal comments. Brown said it was a ‘memorable goal’ - which it certainly was and is unfortunately etched into my memory.
Interesting that the YouGov poll (not that I put much emphasis on them) shows that the SNP are stalling - just like 2003 and 1999.
It always happens that the Nats get carried away by their own rhetoric and then the voters see through them. Salmond’s comments about continuing to use pounds sterling and continuing to have the BoE set interest rates post independence shows how unsustainable their position is. I think the SNP will as usual falter as the winning post gets near - Labour the largest party is by far and away the most likely result, with modest gains for the Nats and Lib Dems.
136 Yup, that makes sense. I would probably follow you but my betting on this market is dominated by the chunky wager I had on Obama at 50-1. Naturally I’m into laying-off territory.
Night folks.
Watch out for those Creatures.
133. I have to say I’ve never been impressed by the horse despite the runaway win last year. I just thought he had one season wonder written all over him though you can say he’s proved me wrong since, if you look at his races since. I didnt think anything of his win in a small and fairly unimpressive field before this one though again maybe the ground was against him.
The other possibility is that he just hasnt progressed too much from his novice days but I can’t really draw a conclusion on that at this stage, thus I’m left with my original instinct that he’s overrated and had his glory already.
On Saturday the ground played a major factor and it was well flagged that it wouldnt suit, but the TV coverage didnt really provide any view that he was lame, I just thought he just ran out of puff and was trading water and didnt hang around for post race views.
Bet or lay? Twisting my arm, I’d have to say lay, not because I don’t think he will improve on the likely firmer ground in March, but mainly because he’s just overrated. I have to say though I wouldnt stick my money on either right now as regards the Festival, Saturday was all about my feeling he was overrated and ground that wouldnt suit him and would suit others. Come March one of those factors will likely be missing. In additon we just dont know who will line up at the starting tape on the day.
Detroit City out again shortly, I have to say that my equilibium has gone over this animal. I’m just a supporter because I think he’s a superb beast and whilst, from a betting point of view I wouldnt be too upset to see him beat, in the hope of getting better odds, the fan in me wants to see him sweep all before him. Sandown is an odd course so if he’s any issues with that kind of thing may prove his undoing but looking at the Irish race at the weekend, if he goes to post in good health in March he’ll thump Hardy Eustace.
141 Say what you like about the Clintons they are very very good at winning elections, and have been for 30 years. They can also be ruthless in that pursuit as needs be. I don’t think Obama realises what he has let himself in for trying to come between the Clinton election team and the nomination. They will unload on him and derail his campaign, its when rather than if. Lay while you can.
“Primary Colours” was not wholly fiction…..
123. It’s obviously a reference to the new Labour leadership of Brown and Blears.
http://www.festivals.estates.ed.ac.uk/images/show_krankies.jpg
137.”re 135. Come on - one of Gordon’s great successes has been his approach to enterprise through the huge extension of capital gains tax relief to those who invest in new companies.”
Unfortunately Mike, he has not been so kind to people who have for years invested in the company they work for. He has changed the goal posts almost constantly and considering that many people who take up the option are not necessarily well off makes it more annoying.
Just seen this story about my favourite to win the French election will it be the first of many wrong calls on the 2007 prediction contest?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6310557.stm
144. I was watching an old episode of a favourite comedy tonight and in a one scene someone saluted Jack Kennedy, he added that America has not managed to elect a “cool” President since then. I wonder if they are ready to do so now?
Looking at the Republican choices on offer who don’t seem to be setting the heather on fire or a continuation of the Bush/Clinton swap shop, are they ready to go for a younger more charismatic leader? I think they may be ready to what the UK did in 97′ or what the tories did in 2005, jump a generation and go for some one new and fresh like Obama.
And how many of us predicted that there would be no change to the Tories´ A-List? From today´s Guardian:
“Last night the Conservative party board, a legacy of the perpetual reform of the party machine since its collapse in 1997, agreed to changes in the selection system imposed last year. The new leadership’s priority list of 160 London-picked, high-flying candidates - the A list - was intended to give women and ethnic minority candidates a better chance of becoming MPs.”
Le´s see how we all go on with the rest of the predictions…….
This story , about Brown’s comments on Scotland beating England at Wembley in 67, has been doing the rounds in Scotland. It followed on from a Brown gaffe in India when he replied that he would like the hosts of the 2012(?) World cup to win it. He meant Engalnd as he was declaring his support for the English bid to host the competition. He tried to retract this in a later press release , claiming he would prefer a Scotland v England final with Scotland winning.
After this debacle, quotes from his book began to appear, I think in the Scotsman. The SNP want to hit him twice. Ridicule his “Britishness” fixation and suggest he would back England over Scotland if he thought there were votes in it.
Mike @ 137: “Unfortunately my party, the Lib Dems, wants to abolish Gordon’s exemption.”
And so do the Tories - at least according to the Forsyth Commission report.
Both wisely understand that the proceeds could be better used to reduce taxes elsewhere.
‘Is the former spin-master out to get Brown ?’
Does a bear defecate in the forest ??
This is only the warm-up, wait until the gloves are off and Peter ‘I censored the BBC’ Mandelson is involved…
Wait until Mandelson or Campbell release the notorious photos of Gordon and the rocking horse. That’s Gordo’s ambitions up in smoke!